Tommy Joseph Promoted, Darin Ruf Sent Down, Probably

(The original headline of this story implied Darin Ruf had been demoted, because it seems likely and because I am an idiot who forgot to fix it before posting. Sorry, Darin.)

Tommy Joseph, the primary return in the Phillies 2012 trade of Hunter Pence to San Francisco, had his contract selected from Lehigh Valley and will join the club as they begin a nine-game home stand tonight against Cincinnati, according to Jayson Stark and a bunch of the Philly beats. Joseph ever making his MLB debut was far from anyone’s mind just three months ago, but his play in Spring Training and the AAA regular season has certainly warranted the call-up, and his long struggle against injury makes his impending debut, likely tonight against Brandon Finnegan, quite the feel-good story. Really, I feel good about it. Not like, I just got an N64 for Christmas, but pretty good. Continue reading…

The New Adam Morgan

In those dark months between New Year’s and the start of spring training when baseball writers become desperate for relevant topics to write about, I undertook a series titled “Who Are You“. The purpose of the series was simple enough: to familiarize myself (and by extension, you, the reader) with the overall profile of each new significant Phillies acquisition. We looked at guys like Jeremy Hellickson, Peter Bourjos, and Vince Velasquez whom we may have only had cursory knowledge of previously and attempted to form a relatively comprehensive picture of what to expect from each entering the 2016 season. What we didn’t do at the time was look at returning members of the Phillies in such a thorough fashion because, naturally, we already had reasonably clear understandings of each player.

It’s important to regularly update our understanding of players we already know because major leaguers are constantly adjusting and evolving. We’re able to do this by diving deep into things like Odubel Herrera‘s increased patience at the plate or Hector Neris‘ increased reliance on his killer splitter, but it’s rare to need to do a comprehensive deep dive on a player with whom you’re already familiar. On occasion, however, a player will make such a dramatic change that it’s necessary to completely scrap all prior understanding of a player and start completely fresh. This year, the Phillies have one of those players in Adam Morgan. It’s time to forget everything we thought we knew and ask the sole lefty in the Phillies rotation, “Who are you?”

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Nola’s Other Pitch

Aaron Nola‘s curveball has received a lot of attention this year, and rightly so.  Nola has seemingly ridden an increased use of the pitch to raise his profile from solid starter to hearing whispers of “ace” just a month into the season. His curveball is undeniably excellent, possibly the best in the baseball, and now he’s throwing it more often without any decrease in effectiveness.

Year Thrown% Ball% Strike% Swing% Whiff%
2015 24% 28% 42% 49% 20%
2016 34% 27% 46% 48% 21%

It was a simple adjustment, and one that has been well documented. But while the curveball has gotten all the attention, it’s really only half the story behind Nola’s rise this year. The other half, the one where he has made the bigger adjustment, is the two seam fastball. Continue reading…

Whats With Odubel Herrera’s Walk Rate?

It’s no secret that Odubel Herrera has been walking much more this year. Going into Tuesday’s games, Odubel ranks 6th of 194 qualified hitters in walk rate at 18.2%, just below Brandon Belt and Jose Bautista. Last year, he ranked 112 of the 141 qualified hitters in baseball at 5.2%. It’s been written about on Crashburn Alley and on other sites several times, but I’d like to add some nuance to the conversation.

Lineup protection is considered something of a myth in sabermetric circles; according to statheads, it’s not entirely irrelevant, but its effect is greatly overstated. In Tom Tango’s The Book, his research suggests that a lack of lineup protection is associated with a slight uptick in walks from a team’s better hitters, but also a higher number of strikeouts. Is this what we’re seeing with Herrera this year? And more importantly, will his walk rate crater once the Phillies lineup has more than 3 serviceable hitters?

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Crash Landing: The Grass Is Always Greener

The Phillies offense is an unmitigated disaster. Their 3.3 runs per game is a mark of futility surpassed only by an Atlanta Braves team whose lineup is only considered to be a major league lineup on a technicality. Of the 13 position players on the Phillies roster, three have an OPS below the .495 OPS Michael Martinez posted during his Phillies career. Naturally, there have been calls to do something, anything to change the situation.

The most obvious candidates for replacement include: Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Tyler Goeddel, Peter Bourjos, Emmanuel Burriss, and Darin Ruf. Galvis (75 wRC+) and Hernandez (60 wRC+) aren’t going anywhere until J.P. Crawford is promoted to the majors. The team is likely to remain patient with Rule 5 pick, Goeddel (-17 wRC+, yes, that’s a negative 17), even as he exhibits growing pains at the major league level. Bourjos (31 wRC+) demonstrates enough value on defense that he’s unlikely to be the next man out. Burriss (11 wRC+) and Ruf (10 wRC+), however? Their time may be running short.

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Hellickson’s Extreme Times Through The Order Penalty

Jeremy Hellickson wasn’t particularly sharp during his outing against the Cardinals on Tuesday, but he very nearly made it twice through the order without yielding a run. In the fourth inning, however, he faced his 18th batter of the night and opposing pitcher Adam Wainwright stepped to the plate only to did this:

Hellickson managed to retire the Cardinals in order the following inning, but in the sixth it all fell apart in an instant. Three pitches into the inning and he’d allowed back-to-back homers to Matt Adams and Aledmys Diaz. For reasons passing understanding, no reliever was warming up so Hellickson was forced to face two more batters before being lifted from the game.

Struggles going deep into a game are nothing new for Jeremy Hellickson. Since 2014, Hellickson has allowed a .978 OPS the third time through the order despite allowing a .782 OPS overall. Of the 138 pitchers to throw 200+ innings over that time stretch only Jake Peavy had a wider OPS differential (.978 OPS third time through, .751 overall).

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Crashburn Alley Is Looking For Writers

The Phillies are an extraordinarily interesting team right now and the Crashburn crew is looking to expand in order to provide even more in-depth analysis on this developing team. If you are a writer with an interest in contributing to the stat-driven Phillies analysis we provide at Crashburn Alley, we would love to hear from you. Ideal candidates will be able to contribute on a weekly basis and are adept at incorporating sabermetric concepts in their baseball analyses.

Qualifications

  • Able to contribute 1-2 articles per week
  • Strong writing skills
  • Solid understanding of sabermetric principles
  • Previous baseball blogging experience preferred, but not required
  • Prior experience with WordPress is a plus

Unfortunately, this is not a paid position. However, writers have moved from this site directly into paying gigs, so if your ultimate objective is to make some money writing about baseball then Crashburn can be a great way to get your foot in the door. A few of the many outlets which feature current and past Crashburn contributors include: ESPN, NBC Sports, Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and Beyond The Box Score.

If you are interested in joining us, email me at crashlandrey@gmail.com. Tell me a bit about yourself and your relevant experience. Include links to your previous work and a current writing sample on any Phillies-related topic. I look forward to hearing from you!

What We Learned About the Phillies in April

The Phillies just wrapped up a 14-10 April which ties the ’01 (14-10) and ’03 (16-12) teams for the Phillies’ second best April record since 2000 and trails only the legendary 2011 squad’s 18-8 run. Baseball may be an extraordinarily long season rich with unpredictable twists and turns, but there is still meaningful information to be gleaned from the start of the 2016 season beyond “winning baseball is fun!” Here are a few things we’ve learned in the first month of the season:

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A Bucket of Cold Water

Happy Monday! The Phillies are 15-10, remarkably, and the team’s .600 winning percentage is fifth-best in the National League. The Phils have won six games in a row and nine of the last ten. They just swept the Nationals and the Indians, beating Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Danny Salazar along the way. Ryan Howard hit an extra innings walk-off homer against Cody Allen, one of the game’s best closers. The pitching staff has exceeded all expectations, and even the bullpen has come around. The catching duo has put up strong numbers at the plate. Most importantly, the team is having FUN and is a pleasure to watch.

Naturally, I’m here to destroy all hope and optimism you may have for the remaining five months of the season. With one month in the books, here’s how the Phillies’ hitters are performing and their corresponding rank among all 30 MLB teams.
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Crash Landing: Relief Pitchers Remain A Mystery

One of the oft-cited clichés in bullpen-building is that relievers are fungible. It’s a gross oversimplification that reduces pitchers to faceless commodities but, although it’s never wise to write-off the so-called “human element” entirely, there’s an undeniable undercurrent of truth to it.

The performance variability relievers experience from year-to-year makes them maddeningly unpredictable. With the notable exception of the few truly elite relievers in the game – guys like Craig Kimbrel, Wade Davis, and Kenley Jansen – it’s nearly impossible to project a reliever’s performance with any certainty in a given year. There’s simply too much small sample size weirdness at play when full season workloads span just 50-70 innings. As an example, one four run outing will add 0.72 to an end of season ERA in a 50 inning season. This means one stomach bug or one bad bullpen session or one poorly located blister can result in a substantial swing in season stats. So good luck looking at a pool of free agent middle relievers and accurately guessing which one is in store for the best season.

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