Trying to Understand Cesar Hernandez

This weekend Cesar Hernandez hit two home runs. Two is such a small number in the context of baseball, and most small events like this could be explained as small sample size noise. However, these home runs brought Hernandez to 3 in 12 games. This is Hernandez’s 5th major league season, and in the previous 4 he hit 8 home runs total. The spike is noticeable in the ongoing confusion that is Cesar Hernandez.

The introduction of StatCast has brought a larger voice to the concept that hitting the ball in the air is better than hitting the ball on the ground. This is not a new idea to anyone who has studied basic mechanics and specifically ballistics. The 2016 data bears this out too.

Batted Ball Type AVG ISO
Ground Ball .239 .019
Fly Ball .241 .474
Line Drive .689 .210

So how does this tie back to Cesar Hernandez? Here is Hernandez’s batted ball data in his time in the majors: Continue reading…