Altherr’s Hot Start Hides Underlying Weaknesses (and Improvements)

It is not a controversial statement to say that Aaron Altherr is headed for some regression. His BABIP (.392), HR/FB rate (35.6%),and ISO (.381) are way outside of expected norms. The good news is that he is batting .333/.434/.714, so any regression would take him from an MVP pace to just a really good baseball player. When a player goes on a hot streak, it has a tendency to cover up underlying numbers.

For Altherr, his big underlying discrepancy is his left/right split. Here are his triple slash lines vs righties and lefties:

Vs RHPs: .333/.433/.684

Vs LHPs: .333/.438/.778

It isn’t surprising that he is hitting for more power vs lefties. But, this only tells a surface story, so let’s unpack this a bit more with some different stats.

Vs RHPs: 67 PA 11.9% BB% 31.3% K% .452 BABIP

Vs LHPs: 32 PA 15.6% BB% 12.5% K% .300 BABIP Continue reading…

Crash Bag Vol. 18: Trading Cesar

Thank you to Brad for doing this last week, and for being much funnier in the process than I am. It has been a really bad week of results for the major league club, so why not talk about trading their best player so far, and answer some other questions along the way as well.

For now the best place to ask questions is on Twitter, either @ me (@Matt_Winkelman or @CrashburnAlley). But you can also reply in the comments here and I will will have some sort of better way for future mailbags.

@mweintr: Should Cesar Hernandez be traded now, when his value is highest?

It has become trendy to to want teams to keep trading and churning players, always looking for value. This is not the worst strategy when you know you are going to be a non-contender for the remainder of a player’s contract. However, Cesar will turn 27 just over 2 weeks from now and still has 3 more years of control through arbitration. He is currently batting a BABIP influenced .336/.379/.517 with a career high strikeout rate and career low walk rate. History says his power should trend down, and his walk and strikeout rates should trend positively towards his career averages. He is on pace for a 6+ WAR season, which is probably unsustainable, but he should be able to repeat his 4 win season from a year ago, barring an unexpected collapse. That is a really good baseball player, and if you are going to trade someone of his caliber, with his level of remaining control, you are going to want a haul back. Continue reading…

Nola Injured and the Phillies Make a Trade

The Phillies 40 man roster will be a story all year, as they navigate the 11 players they added in front of the Rule 5 draft. With Clay Buchholz’s season ending injury and Elniery Garcia’s PED suspension, the roster opened up some. This was all just in time for injuries to hit the Phillies elsewhere.

The heart attack inducing injury was to Aaron Nola’s back. Right now, all indications are that Nola will only miss a start or two on this DL trip, but the news caused some level of panic anyway. The corresponding move is fairly obvious. Nick Pivetta has gotten off to a hot start and is both on the 40 man roster and on turn in the rotation. Pivetta probably needs more time in AAA, but he should be fine to make a 1 to 2 start cameo in the majors. The Phillies could choose to go with a bullpen game in those starts instead, but all signs point to Pivetta making his debut. Continue reading…