Roy Halladay died today. It’s a crushing blow to his family, all his friends in Colorado, Florida, Toronto, and Philadelphia, as well as the Blue Jays and Phillies organizations. It doesn’t really matter that Roy Halladay was one of the best pitchers who ever lived – there’s a plaque in Cooperstown that will go up someday to tell you all about it. The legacy that Roy Halladay leaves behind, at least in the public sphere, is of his work ethic, humility, and spirit.

Continue reading…

Crash Bag Vol. 42 – It Might be a Little Late

I have promised this Crash Bag a few times now. So I will just post the answers now and stop delaying.

@mweintr: What are the chances the phillies go after Darvish this winter? 2 bad outings in WS? could get for a decent price tag?

I think the chances continue to be low. Given that Cueto and Tanaka have both opted into their contracts, the only two pitchers that could be described as front line starters are Darvish and Jake Arrieta. I think his World Series starts might make a few teams less all in on signing him, but I doubt it really affects his contract. The Phillies certainly have the money to sign Darvish, and unlike Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb he won’t have any qualifying offer penalties attached. That should be attractive to the Phillies, but it should also be attractive to many teams. I just don’t get the feeling that the Phillies want to be the high bidder on either of the two big pitching contracts.

@g_linwood: @mlbtraderumors made some bold predictions for the Phillies: Tanaka and Chatwood, thoughts on this?

Since this question was asked, Tanaka opted into his contract with the Yankees. MLB Trade Rumors has the Phillies signing Tyler Chatwood for 3 years and $20M. Given the potential upgrade from going from Coors to not-Coors, $6-$7 million a year is not crazy for Chatwood. I don’t see the Phillies giving him that many years. Chatwood for 1-2 year with a team or mutual option makes sense in the Morton, Hellickson, Buchholz role, but I wouldn’t be running out to make it happen. Continue reading…

2017 Phillies Report Card: Ty Kelly

Ty Kelly was not the most heralded addition to the 2017 roster. In fact, we didn’t really trade for him; it was more that we bought him from Toronto for cash. I don’t know how much “cash considerations” generally is, but I think it’s an insignificant sum.

And Kelly is a relatively insignificant player in the landscape of the MLB. He entered the season a borderline Major Leaguer and played all of one plate appearance with the Mets. He was then designated for assignment and claimed by the Blue Jays where he accrued exactly zero plate appearances. Four days later he was on the Phillies, replacing the injured Aaron Nola.

So after spending eight years in the minors and a cup of coffee with the Mets last year, he was playing for the third team of the season on April 22. He had that quality, a certain Chris Coste ness you might say, that made him, along with Brock Stassi, easy to root for. Unfortunately, like Stassi, Kelly looked the part of a career minor leaguer. He posted a 53 wRC+ in 103 PAs and negative-0.2 fWAR. Continue reading…

Crash Bag Vol. 41: Pitch Framing and Managing

I didn’t get many questions this week (I guess people are more interested in the World Series in the Phillies managerial search. Go figure), so I’ll just do something of a deep dive on the topics I was asked about.

@robertdalton52: How much of a difference does pitch framing make? Do the umps call strikes and balls based upon pitcher/catcher, and batter reputations?

The first part of this question is somewhat well-tread ground in sabermetrics. Pitch framing was always thought to be somewhat valuable, like blocking pitches, but research indicated that the overall spread in pitch framing value added was actually more on the order of wins than runs. According to Baseball Prospectus, the top pitch framer last year was Tyler Flowers, who produced 25.1 runs, or roughly two and a half wins, above average, while the worst surprisingly was former framing superstar Jonathan Lucroy at -17.7 runs. So the spread there was more than four wins. Continue reading…

2017 Phillies Report Card: Vince Velasquez

When the Phillies traded Ken Giles to Houston in exchange for Vince Velasquez and other pieces, they were supposed to be acquiring a long term rotation piece. Within the first month of his 2016 season, it looked like they had actually acquired an ace. The rest of Velasquez’s year did not go to script, and he entered 2017 looking to make improvements on the mound and more importantly staying healthy on it.

During the 2017 season, Velasquez only started 15 games and pitched 72 innings. He first missed time with a right flexor muscle strain, and then with a vascular injury in his right middle finger. Neither injury necessarily has a long term impact on Velasquez’s ability to pitch in 2018, and while the injuries have been concerning, they aren’t career ending. In 2017, only 75 pitchers pitched 150 innings. While, it would be nice if Velasquez could be a 200 inning pitcher, if he can pitch 140-150 innings a year, he has value as a starter. Continue reading…

2017 Phillies Report Card: Mark Leiter Jr

Mark Leiter Jr. is the type of guy every team needs, but no one really ever wants to have to use. He’s a replacement level player occupying the long man/spot starter role who was thrust into 90 innings this year.

Relative to expectations (of which there were none), Leiter did his job. Thanks to a basically league average strikeout rate (21.3%) and a slightly above average walk rate (7.9%), he wasn’t below replacement level, despite allowing 21% of his fly balls to go over the fence. Maybe there’s a little bit of bad luck involved there, as HR/FB% is one of the noisiest stats and the league average is just 13.7%. Among pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched, Leiter had the worst HR/FB% outside of Yankee Stadium (Michael Pineda) and Coors Field (Tyler Chatwood). Continue reading…

2017 Phillies Report Card: Nick Pivetta

“Neva” (NEE-vuh) is not a name you hear a lot. Or ever. But she was the nurse in charge of our birthing class in the summer of 2015. It was a glorious time to be a prospect-head and a Phillies fan, because as the trade deadline approached, the club was sooooooooooooo bad, putting them in line for a very high draft pick in 2016, and leaving them poised to trade away a bunch of talent, from all-around funster Ben Revere and ace Cole Hamels, to (god willing) the club’s jerk of a closer.

And so on July 28, when Neva called for a potty break, I was quickly on my phone in the hall of Holy Cross Hospital’s administrative wing, checking the Ol’ Twitter for Phils’ news. I wandered towards the chapel and before my eyes came a vision. A vision of Jonathan Papelbon being an A-hole for some other team – my adopted hometown team, The Washington Nationals! The return was a tall Canadian minor league starter with a reliever’s profile. Thankfully, it wasn’t Phillippe Aumont again.

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The Cesar Hernandez Trade Problem

The Phillies have a log jam in the middle infield. They have J.P. Crawford at shortstop, Scott Kingery and Cesar Hernandez at second, and Freddy Galvis still hanging around. In reality the real log jam is just at second base. Cesar Hernandez has turned himself into a really good baseball player, and Scott Kingery has turned himself into a very good prospect. We have evidence that Cesar Hernandez cannot play third base. We don’t have a lot of sample size of Scott Kingery at third, but his arm might be his weakest defensive tool. Even if Kingery or Hernandez could play third it would waste their biggest asset, their glove at second base. The long term solution is then to trade one of them, and of the two, it makes more sense to trade Hernandez because Kingery fits into the Phillies’ timeline better.

Before talking about what the Phillies would want in a trade, let’s eliminate the teams that don’t need Hernandez. I have carved out two groups here, teams with an established veteran on par with Hernandez, and teams with a young or new to MLB second baseman that they want to build around. Continue reading…

2017 Phillies Report Card: Odubel Herrera

The overall numbers for Odubel Herrera this season are not particularly inspiring.

A 100 wRC+, while impressive for a Gold Glove-caliber fielder, represent a step back from where Herrera was in his first two seasons. Over nearly 1200 PAs between 2015 and 2016, Herrera, fueled by a 110 wRC+, produced 7.7 WAR. That placed him in a virtual tie with Dexter Fowler for tops among National League centerfielders.

I should note that Herrera’s season-long wOBA hasn’t varied much for a player viewed to be inconsistent. The past three seasons, his marks have been .333, .338, and .329. Considering the relatively small dip in wOBA and the notable dip in wRC+, that should demonstrate the extent to which the league is tilting towards offense in the post-Juiced Ball era. Continue reading…

2017 Phillies Report Card: Jeremy Hellickson

In an ideal world for the Phillies, Jeremy Hellickson would have been on another team going into the 2017 season. However, the righty did not find the market he was looking for this offseason going off a solid 2016 campaign, and so returned to the Phillies on the qualifying offer tender of $17.2 million. For the Phillies, if Hellickson repeated his 2016 he would be worth the price, but if not, the young team still needed innings.

Innings is what they got from Jeremy Hellickson. 112.1 of them before they shipped him off to Baltimore at the deadline.

Things were off from the start for Hellickson. He had a 1.80 ERA through 5 April games, but he had also only managed to strike out 11 in 30 innings. Jeremy Hellickson has never been a strikeout pitcher, but coming into 2017 he had average 6.8 strikeouts per 9 for his career, including 4 straight years over 7.

The good news is that after April, Hellickson struck out more batters, the bad news is everything else. From May to July, Hellickson had a 5.79 ERA, he gave up 20 home runs in 15 games, and allowed a .909 OPS to opposing batters.

So what went wrong? Continue reading…