Crashburn Alley

Phillies Severely Lacking Discipline

Three Phillies are tied for the team lead in walks with six. The National League leader has 20 walks. Only four Phillies have a walk rate above the National League average of 8.2 percent. One is a pitcher (Joe Blanton), one barely manages a game per week and just went on the disabled list (Jim Thome), one is drawing walks at a rate nearly three times his career average (Laynce Nix), and the other is Ty Wigginton. The rest — your regulars — are well below the league average.

Last year, the Phillies as a team had the ninth-highest walk rate in Major League Baseball thanks to Ryan Howard (11.6 percent) with an honorable mention to Domonic Brown with the team’s best walk rate (11.9 percent) among those with at least 200 plate appearances. However, Chase Utley, John Mayberry, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, Hunter Pence, and Ben Francisco also drew walks above the league average 8.6 percent. Among the players who were on the team in both 2011 and ’12, all have seen their walk rates shrink.

While it’s quite easy to chalk this up to small sample variance, the odds of all seven players experiencing a dip in their walk rate at the same time are quite low. This speaks of a change in organizational philosophy. Manager Charlie Manuel has made no secret that he doesn’t think that his offense, left to its own devices, can push runners across the plate at an acceptable pace. That’s why you saw a rash of sacrifice bunting, particularly early in the season. Manuel also defended outfielder Juan Pierre‘s inefficient base running, saying he wants Pierre to continue to be aggressive on the base paths.

Since taking over as Phillies manager in 2005, Manuel — a well-regarded hitting guru — took a mostly hands-off approach, only getting involved with individual hitters when they hit the skids. Manuel was particularly instrumental in guiding a young Ryan Howard through the valleys (the few of them) early in his career. The self-sustaining Phillies offenses of old did not require the manager to call for egregious amounts of sacrifice bunts or hit-and-run plays. In fact, those Phillies teams were criticized roundly for being “too reliant on the long ball” — waiting around for the three-run home run rather than bunching a few singles together every now and then.

After being shut out in Game Five of the NLDS last October, GM Ruben Amaro talked about a change in offensive approach. Via Matt Gelb:

Ability-wise, there is no question in my mind this is a championship-caliber lineup and championship-caliber players. We have to go about it in a different way. I have talked to Greg Gross and talked to Charlie. We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in ’08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change.

Obviously, the personnel Amaro has collected and was left with due to injuries did not portend for a powerhouse offense. When you add Juan Pierre to your spring training roster with a shrug, and he then becomes your every day left fielder, that is simply going to be the case. However, in compensating for the lack of offense, it seems that the Phillies went too far into the small-ball mindset. Along with the miniature walk rate, the Phillies also have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball (18 percent), the lowest isolated power (.099), the eighth-highest ground ball rate (48 percent), and the third-most bunt hits (seven).

As a result of this “just make contact” approach, the Phillies are also simply swinging at worse pitches. Compare the swing heat maps from 2011 to 2012.

Hunter Pence

Carlos Ruiz

Shane Victorino

The downside to small ball is that you don’t work counts. The Phillies have seen the fewest three-ball counts in the league. The average batter reaches base 56 percent of the time he reaches a three-ball count. Conversely, they have seen the most counts in which the pitcher was ahead (0-1, 0-2, 1-2), when the average batter reaches base less than 20 percent of the time. The Phillies have also seen the second-fewest even counts (1-1, 2-2) in which the average batter reaches base at a meager 27 percent clip. What’s interesting is that the Phillies rank 12th in two-strike counts, which means the Phillies are ending their at-bats early. The following table shows the amount of times each hitter has ended an at-bat in one pitch:

Ending plate appearances early has many bad side effects. Among them, you allow the starting pitcher to stay in the game longer and he rarely labors* (fewer “mistake” pitches); you reach the opposition’s front of the bullpen (ostensibly their worst pitchers) infrequently; and you rarely get what your Little League coach often referred to as “your pitch” — the pitch you know is coming based on deductive reasoning.

* The opposing starter has completed at least six innings against the Phillies in 21 of 24 starts so far this season. The three who didn’t: Josh Johnson, Randy Wells, and Trevor Cahill.

Walks are also unsexy. As a hitter, it’s hard to feel like you’ve done something when a pitcher fails to place his pitch within the strike zone, you don’t swing, and you lightly jog your way onto first base. Even getting hit by a pitch sparks the “you’ve done a good job!” part of your brain because you “took one for the team”. However, walks are nearly as instrumental to run-scoring as hitting singles. In trying to manufacture runs with an impotent offense, they have taken some hitters away from a natural strength. Take Carlos Ruiz, for example. His walk rates since becoming a regular in 2007: 10%, 12%, 12%, 13%, 10%. And then there’s 2012: 5%.

Small ball and plate discipline don’t have to be mutually exclusive, but the Phillies have made it that way, and it is a big reason why they are among the lowest-scoring teams in baseball. If the Phillies drew more walks, they wouldn’t have to wait for three or four singles to bunch together or for a successful sacrifice bunt and subsequent sacrifice fly to score runs. (Someone once pointed out that the OBP of a ground ball — BABIP, essentially — is around .230; the OBP of a walk is 1.000.) No, this amalgamation of Phillies players will not go toe-to-toe with the 2000 Colorado Rockies, but it doesn’t mean they’re destined to be a bottom-feeding offense, either. There is no reason why this team can’t finish the season averaging four runs per game.

Guest Post: The Trade Market at Third Base

Anthony Rodin is a Phillies and Mariners fan, as well as a freelance blogger whose work has been posted on Phillies Nation and ProBallNW.  You can follow him on Twitter @AntsInIN or e-mail arod1300 [at] gmail [dot] com.

Hot Corner Hot Stove Update – Introduction and April 

In 2010 it was another starter in Roy Oswalt. In 2011, it was a slugging outfielder in Hunter Pence.  In this young season, a third baseman with power is the Phillies’ most pressing need. They lack internal options and thus will have to scour the trade market for someone at the hot corner.  While the season is barely a month old, it is becoming apparent that Placido Polanco (currently hitting .250/.299/.292) is on his last legs.  Though he may have some utility in the Wilson Valdez/Michael Martinez mold by playing around the infield once or twice a week, Polanco clearly cannot start.

Unfortunately, due to previous trades and a weak farm system, the Phillies have less to work with than in the past, especially when it comes to MLB-ready prospects.  Domonic Brown is the only player in this category, with other players like Tyson Gillies and Phillippe Aumont being relatively close but nowhere near the ceiling of Brown.  Trevor May and Jessie Biddle are still a long ways from the majors, and Biddle especially is having trouble at the lower levels.

Financially, too, the Phillies are squeezed.  Team payroll is at $174.5 million.  The luxury tax threshold for 2012 is $178 million.  That leaves very little wiggle room for the front office to get a deal done under that tax.  Of course, the front office may realize that the window for competing is rapidly closing and could just go all “damn the torpedoes” and exceed the cap anyways.  In my opinion, they can afford to eat financial costs a lot more than paying in prospects, but that may change.

Given all the above, what options are there for the Phillies?  Are there any potential matches out there this early in the season that are worth keeping an eye on as the hot stove heats up?  And if so, what are the costs, both in terms of prospects and money, that would be required to get them? Let’s take a look.  Please, remember that we are dealing with small sample sizes here, and that some players may be off the market as their teams heat up and remain in the race late into the summer, especially with the new second wildcard spot open.  I’ve lumped the candidates into 5 categories: the superstars, the defensive wastelands, the contract dumps, the long-term solutions and a smattering of possible replacement-levels.

The Superstars

David Wright – NYM

2010: .283/.354/.503, 3.9 WAR (Baseball Reference)

2011: .254/.345/.427, 1.4 WAR

2012: .383/.494/.569

Salary: 2012: $15M; 2013: $16M (club option)

Say it with me now: The Phillies are not going to trade for David Wright. The Phillies are not going to trade for David Wright. The Phillies are not going to trade for David Wright.  Got the picture?  David Wright is too expensive, both in prospects and cash. To get Wright, the Phillies would easily have to give up Brown, Aumont and one or two decent prospects to a division rival, even more if the Phils want the Mets to eat some of the salary.  Plus, Wright’s 2013 option is voided if he is traded, essentially turning him into a half-year rental.  Sure, there is nothing to prevent the Phils from going after him, but the free agency market for third basemen next year is not pretty, and lots of teams with cash will be more than happy to overpay for a slugger at a premium position.  Also, the Mets by no means have to deal Wright, as their finances are starting to stabilize as the Madoff case has been settled and the Wilpons aren’t in as dire straits as initially thought. 

Kevin Youkilis – BOS

2010: .307/.411/.564, 4.8 WAR

2011: .258/.373/.459, 4.3 WAR

2012: .219/.292/.344

Salary: 2012: $12M; 2013: $13M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Youkilis probably won’t be on the market, as the Sox are actually starting to play some decent ball and the rift between Valentine and Youkilis seems to have been smoothed over.  However, if the Sox scuffle in divisional play and find themselves in fourth or fifth come the trade deadline, Youkilis could be available as the Sox look to get younger and shed some payroll.  Youk would fit right in with the rest of the ancient Phillies infield and he is a tremendous injury risk.  However, he would also bring some much-needed patience to a free-swinging ballclub and his defense is at least league average.   To get Youk though, if he is on the market, the Phils will most likely have to get rid of their last few elite prospects, with May and Brown being requisites in the trade with at least two more mid- or lower-level guys with some projectability.  Getting Youk would, in short, turn an already depleted farm system into something looking like Depression-era Oklahoma.

The Defensive Wastelands

Mark Reynolds – BAL

2010: .198/.320/.433, 0.4 WAR

2011: .221/.323/.483, 0.5 WAR

2012: .158/.284/.228

Salary: 2012: $7.5M; 2013: $11M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Reynolds’ free-swinging ways would fit right in with the Phillies, as he has led the league in strikeouts for four straight years.  However, he also has prestigious power when he connects, belting 44, 32 and 37 homers in the last 3 years.  He would also add some balance to a still lefty-heavy lineup, providing some serious pop from the right side. Unfortunately, his glove is simply atrocious and eliminates almost all of the value his bat brings. Coupled with his high salary, especially for 2013, Reynolds shouldn’t be too expensive in terms of prospects and may not be a bad fallback choice, especially if the offensive woes continue into the summer.

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR

2010: .244/.305/.482, 1.6 WAR

2011: .272/.334/.453, 1.0 WAR

2012: .322/.376/.678

Salary: 2012: $3.5M

Encarnacion is on a tear this year, belting six homers already.  He’s more patient, cheaper, and less of a defensive abomination than Reynolds.  Unfortunately he’s a free agent after this year, making him a rental.  For the Phils, a three-month rental may not make sense, as losing even a middling prospect for such a short term player is a poor use of scarce resources.

Wilson Betemit – BAL

2010: .297/.378/.511, 1.3 WAR

2011: .285/.343/.452, 1.3 WAR

2012: .241/.268/.481

Salary: 2012: $1M; 2013: $1.75M; 2014: $3.2M player option (vests at 700 PA between 2012-2013)

Betemit has been an above-average bat and below-average glove for a few years now, and is signed relatively cheaply through at least 2013.  The reason he’s here instead of the long-term solutions is that his glove is below-average, though not nearly as bad as Reynolds’.  Betemit is a bit of a free swinger, but has power and bats from both sides (with a pretty substantial platoon split).  If Baltimore does eventually collapse as so many think they will, they have a couple of options that should be on the Phillies’ radar.

Mark Trumbo – LAA

2011: .254/.291/.477, 2.1 WAR

2012: .304/.373/.543

Salary: Arbitration-eligible beginning in 2014

There’s a reason why Trumbo is here and not the Long Term Solutions group.  Trumbo is atrocious at 3B. He is easily the worst glove in this category.  The only reason he’s at 3B to begin with is because the Angels have about 38 1B/DH/corner outfield types and they need to find some way to get all their bats in the lineup.  Thus began the Mark Trumbo Experiment, which has resulted in him making three errors in just nine chances.  He is not a long-term solution at third base for anyone.  He really doesn’t have much of a position in the field outside of first base, and the Phils have that position locked down for the next half decade.  Plus, because he is club controlled for so long, the Angels will probably charge a hefty price in prospects, which just doesn’t make sense when the return is a guy with a sub-.300 on-base percentage.

Contract Dumps

Chone Figgins – SEA

2010: .259/.340/.306, 1.1 WAR

2011: .188/.241/.243, -0.5 WAR

2012: .209/.274/.337

Salary: 2012: $9.5M; 2013: $8.5M

Full disclosure: I am a Mariners fan, and I want this bum off my team.  To Figgins’ credit, his line this year isn’t indicative of his performance.  He’s hitting more line drives but still has a .262 BABIP.  He’s connecting with the ball a lot better than he has since his Mariners contract began in 2010 (he has more home runs than even Albert Pujols!).  He can also play numerous positions — shortstop, second base, and any outfield position if necessary.  Concerning is the fact that his walk rate is down and his K rate is way up (24.2%; his previous career high was 16.2% in 2010).  Due to his high price tag, Figgins should come cheaply in terms of prospects, and the Mariners have enough salary room that they can eat the remainder of the 2012 salary.  The question is whether or not he’d truly be an upgrade over Polanco or Wigginton, or if his career is just as over as Polly’s.

Replacement-Level

I’m not going to do a full breakdown of each player here, but there are numerous guys who might be available at the trade deadline who should be cheap in both money and prospects, but who offer only a marginal upgrade over Wigginton/Polanco.  These include Casey McGehee, Jack Hannahan, and Chris Johnson. Yeah, not a lot to get excited about there, though Hannahan’s glove is really good. 

Long-Term Solutions

These are guys who the Phils should target in a trade and then, if necessary, extend them.  There is a dearth of talent at third base right now (as this post is highlighting), and if the Phils can lock down a productive or cheap (or both) bat at the position for the next few years, they should do it.

Chase Headley – SD

2010: .264/.327/.375, 3.6 WAR (.289/.334/.432 away from Petco)

2011: .289/.374/.399, 2.0 WAR (.330/.399/.465 away from Petco)

2012: .253/.388/.470

Salary: 2012: $3.475M, under arbitration through 2014

It’s hard not to like Headley, especially after seeing him destroy the Phils recently in San Diego.  Headley’s numbers have been deflated by Petco (as you can see), but he is a patient gap-hitter with a solid glove.  Headley’s patience is something the Phillies desperately need, and playing 82 games at Citizens Bank Park instead of Petco should help his numbers. With Zimmermann out, one could make the argument that Headley is among the top 3 third basemen in the NL right now.  Because he’s cheap and club controlled, Headley would most certainly cost the Phillies a fortune.  However, in looking at the free agency market for the next couple years, a corner OF like Domonic Brown is going to be a lot easier to find than an above average 3B.

Alberto Callaspo – LAA

2010: .265/.302/.374, 1.8 WAR

2011: .288/.366/.375, 4.5 WAR

2012: .182/.217/.182

Salary: 2012: $3.15M; 2013: arbitration-eligible

Callaspo is the 4-WAR guy you’ve never heard of.  While his batting line isn’t exactly sexy, he makes good contact and avoids making strikeouts.  He’s solid defensively at third base, and can also play shortstop and second base competently.  Callaspo isn’t a guy you build a team around, but he is an excellent companion piece to an already-existing core, a guy who can play a position of value well above replacement level for cheap.  The Angels are still trying to find their best lineup, which cost Callaspo playing time this year.  The Phils should even be able to get him without sacrificing Brown, though given the current state of the Angels bullpen, you figure Phillippe Aumont would have to be involved in some fashion.

Kyle Seager – SEA

2011: .258/.312/.379, 0.9 WAR

2012: .278/.288/.417

Salary: Arbitration-eligible beginning in 2015

Yes, another Mariner.  Seager’s a contact-heavy gap hitter with some pop.  He plays a solid third base, but can play second base and shortstop as well.  Like Callaspo, he’s a good young complementary piece who could lock down a position of need for the next half decade.  He’s had a rough April in terms of patience (1.4 BB%), and while he’s never drawn a lot of walks, he doesn’t strike out a lot, either.  Domonic Brown would likely have to go to Seattle in a deal involving Seager, but considering Brown’s tenuous ride with the Phillies thus far, it may be a good match for both sides. The Mariners have plenty of depth at 3B (Alex Liddi, Figgins, with Francisco Martinez and Vinnie Catricala due up the next couple years) that they can afford to trade him.

That’s the market. At this point, it’s still wide open since there are no clear buyers or sellers.  As the calendar turns from May to June, though, we’ll revisit this list and begin to separate out those who aren’t available, and add in any newcomers.

Phillies-Braves Game Thread 5/1/12

The Phillies have arrived in Atlanta after a brief four-game homestand against the Chicago Cubs. The 14-9 Braves lay claim to one of the league’s best offenses, averaging over five runs per game. Compared to the Phillies, they’re basically the 2000 Colorado Rockies. That’s not to say the Braves haven’t had their problems, however. Brandon Beachy, tonight’s starter, has easily been their most effective starter. Young talents Mike Minor and Randall Delgado haven’t yet put it together and veteran Jair Jurrjens was recently demoted to Triple-A after his fourth start, which left him with a 9.37 ERA.

Last night, the Phillies were able to earn a series split with the Cubs thanks to some timely hitting. Placido Polanco‘s two-run single in the eighth inning broke a 4-4 tie and allowed Jonathan Papelbon to enter in the ninth to nail down the save. For as bad as the Phillies have been offensively, they have been timing their runs as best as they can: 35 of their 76 total runs scored this season (46 percent) have come in innings 7-9, compared to 20 in innings 1-3 (26 percent) and 21 in innings 4-6 (28 percent). That will be just a bit tougher to do against Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, but the Phillies will try nonetheless.

Lineups

Phillies

• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.261 wOBA)
• Placido Polanco, 2B (.267)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.307)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.303)
• Ty Wigginton, 1B (.371)
• Laynce Nix, LF (.390)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.361)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (.230)
• Cole Hamels, SP (.304)

Braves

• Michael Bourn, CF (.359)
• Martin Prado, LF (.341)
• Freddie Freeman, 1B (.335)
• Brian McCann, C (.303)
• Dan Uggla, 2B (.348)
• Matt Diaz, RF (.337)
• Juan Francisco, 3B (.339)
• Tyler Pastornicky, SS (.314)
• Brandon Beachy, SP (.251)

Greetings From Clearwater – May 1

It wasn’t a terribly exciting week for Phillies hitting prospects, with most players simply continuing the trends we saw in last week’s update. Let’s dig in.

View the Top 30 Prospects

Aaron Altherr raised his batting average by 24 points last week, going 9-for-29 with a double, a triple, and three stolen bases. His nine steals rank seventh in the South Atlantic League.

Three of Clearwater third baseman Cody Asche’s last four games have been of the multi-hit variety, and he notched his first extra-base hit in more than two weeks last night with a double off of Brevard County’s Brandon Williamson. Asche has the fifth-best batting average, .333, in the Florida State League.

Leandro Castro has now gone hitless in eight-consecutive games after a 3-for-5 night at Richmond on April 17. Castro has only reached base once, via walk on April 24, during that stretch.

Lakewood first baseman Kelly Dugan was placed on the disabled list with a sprained right ankle on April 24.

Edgar Duran sits in a five-way tie for the Florida State League lead in triples with three after stroking a pair of three-baggers last week. He still isn’t drawing walks, but the 21-year-old shortstop is holding his own as one of the youngest regulars in the league.

It was another rough week for Gauntlett Eldemire, who extended his streak of games without an extra-base hit to 12 with an 0-for-4 effort yesterday against Greenville. Eldemire’s dozen stolen bases rank second behind Lexington’s Delino DeShields.

When Maikel Franco hits, he hits often. Since going 1-for-4 on April 13, Franco has collected three, two, or zero hits in 13 games. He fell a double short of the cycle against Asheville on April 24, but has gone 2-for-23 since, dropping his batting average from .290 to .235.

Philadelphia second baseman Freddy Galvis is one of eight qualifying National League hitters to carry a sub-.200 batting average into May. His .519 OPS ranks sixth-worst in the league, and stellar defense hasn’t been enough to keep him above replacement level (-0.5 WARP).

Tyson Gillies has hit in 12 of his last 13 games, including a 3-for-5 effort with a pair of doubles to help Trevor May secure his fifth win of the season last night at New Hampshire. Three of his six doubles have come in the last three days, and eight hits last week bumped his batting average up from .266 to .289.

Tyler Greene’s struggles at Lakewood continue, as a 1-for-17 week dropped his season line down to .164/.235/.311. Had he enough plate appearances to qualify, Greene’s batting average would be nearly 70 points worse than the next-worst average in the South Atlantic League, and only two players can top his 30 strikeouts. Greene seems primed for a reassignment to short-season Williamsport in June.

Back-to-back 0-for-4 games dropped Cesar Hernandez’s batting average 32 points, serving as a testament to just how early we are in the 2012 season. Hernandez was as high as .310 after going a combined 5-for-7 on April 26-27, but now sits at .278, only three points lower than this time last week.

It turns out that Anthony Hewitt’s big game against Jed Bradley on April 23 was a mixed signal, as Hewitt ripped his second home run of the season last week, and is now hitting .170 after missing the start of April with injury, but also carries an ugly 15:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio into the season’s second month.

Despite starting April hitting .400/.409/.850 through six games, Reading outfielder Jiwan James closes the month at a disappointing .250/.278/.444. James hasn’t gone deep since April 10 and had eight strikeouts (and only one walk) last week.

Last year’s third-round pick out of Miami, Harold Martinez made his season debut with Lakewood when Kelly Dugan went on the disabled list. Primarily a third baseman in college, Martinez has played six of seven games thus far at first base, hitting .259/.276/.407 through 28 trips to the plate. Despite his late start, Martinez already ranks third on the BlueClaws with four doubles.

Four multi-hit games raised Lehigh Valley first baseman Cody Overbeck’s batting average 43 points to .313. He also slugged his second home run of the season, and first since April 13, on Sunday.

Brian Pointer continued his subtle breakout last week, socking his fifth home run of the year on April 28 and running his successful stolen base attempt streak to 13. Pointer ranks third in the South Atlantic League in home runs, sixth in RBI, seventh in slugging average, and 13th in OPS.

Reading first baseman Darin Ruf had a nine-hit week, which actually dropped his batting average 15 points. His .378 mark still ranks third among Eastern League leaders, and he’s in the top 10 in slugging average and OPS. Ruf has always hit, but a 25-year-old first baseman slugging away in Double-A offers little reason for excitement.

Sebastian Valle walked not once, but twice last week, and Is now 40 percent of the way toward matching his 2011 total of 13 free passes. The power Valle exhibited in 2010 may have caused expectations for his bat to become over-inflated, but if this is what he is—a good defender who won’t be a burden at the plate—that isn’t a bad thing to have in your system.

Pence’s Plummeting Production

The Phillies’ start to the season offensively as a whole has been disappointing, but no one individual has so far failed to live up to expectations quite like Hunter Pence. Pence had a career year in 2011, posting a career-high .378 wOBA, including .405 in 236 plate appearances with the Phillies after coming over from the Houston Astros. Although unorthodox in every way, Pence’s quirkiness always seemed to get the job done in the end.

This year, however, is another story. Pence has a .306 wOBA, the sixth-highest mark on a team of underachievers. With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard absent for at least the first two months and potentially the entire first half, the Phillies were relying on Pence to be their rock in the clean-up spot, but that simply hasn’t been the case through April. He is striking out more than five times for every one walk — the second-lowest BB/K ratio on the team behind John Mayberry, Jr. and overall striking out in one out of every four plate appearances.

Even with the small sample, there isn’t a noticeable change in batted ball splits and he has an overall .310 BABIP, which is only a shade below his career average .327, a difference of one hit. He is even putting balls in play to the same locations (pull/opposite field) at the same rate. So, his biggest problem thus far has simply been plate discipline. His .293 on-base percentage is a far cry from his .370 OBP last year and his .342 career average.

The Phillies were never expected to be an offensive powerhouse without Utley and Howard. Shane Victorino was the only other regular position player PECOTA projected to post a true average above .270 (league average is .260). PECOTA pegged Pence at .287. Through April, only four teams have seen a lower OPS out of the #4 spot in the lineup than the Phillies have (.695). Since Pence hasn’t been producing, the Phillies have averaged 3.3 runs per game, the third-worst rate in the National League. This puts them on pace to score 535 runs, which would be the fewest scored by a Phillies team in a non-strike-shortened season since 1940-42.

(Please heed the usual small sample size warnings when drawing any conclusions from the above heat maps.)

Cubs-Phillies Game Thread 4/28/12

Last night’s thread mentioned that the Cubs were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, but it didn’t look that way last night. The Cubs scraped together three runs against Roy Halladay while Cubs starter Paul Maholm stymied the Phillies through six and a third — the only damage coming from a Ty Wigginton solo homer. Yes, it was the Phillies once again looking impotent on offense, but they will look to change that tonight against Randy Wells. In his season debut on Sunday, he allowed only two runs against the Cincinnati Reds despite striking out only two and walking five in five innings of work. The Phillies — not known for their plate discipline — will need to be patient against the right-hander tonight if they have any hope of mounting a run-scoring threat.

Lineups

Cubs

• David DeJesus, RF (.313 wOBA)
• Darwin Barney, 2B (.315)
• Starlin Castro, SS (.366)
• Bryan LaHair, 1B (.475)
• Alfonso Soriano, LF (.211)
• Ian Stewart, 3B (.232)
• Reed Johnson, CF (.294)
• Geovany Soto, C (.210)
• Randy Wells, SP

Phillies

• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.237)
• Placido Polanco, 3B (.271)
• Hunter Pence, LF (.310)
• Jim Thome, 1B (.166)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.325)
• Laynce Nix, LF (.447)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.334)
• Pete Orr, 2B (.335)
• Joe Blanton, SP

What We Know: 20 Games In

The Phillies are 9-11, five games back of first place in the NL East. Slow April starts are nothing new, but the past few years have featured more talent (on paper) than this year’s squad, leading to more confidence on a deeper level. The light at the end of the tunnel is the hope that two offensive pillars in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will be returning in a month or so, but treading water until then will prove a dicey proposition, if it’s even enough to stay competitive with a hot Nationals squad (albeit one with a cupcake schedule to date).

Games 11-20 Recap

• Record: 4-6
• RS: 31; RA: 38
• Notes: Cliff Lee hit the 15-day DL on April 21; Mike Stutes was also placed on the 15-day DL on April 24
• Through 20 games, Cole Hamels has more hits and extra-base hits in eight fewer PA than Jim Thome

Cubs-Phillies Game Thread 4/27/12

With the way the Phillies have hit over the first three weeks of the season, you’d be hard-pressed to find a similarly-impotent offense in the National League. Fortunately for the Phillies, one of them is in town tonight for the first game of a four-game series in the Chicago Cubs, who are in last place in the NL Central with a 6-13 record. As a team, the Cubs have posted a .278 wOBA, third-worst in all of baseball. They have the lowest isolated power at .098, and only one player has hit more than one home run: Bryan LaHair with four. Starter Paul Maholm will be looking to silence the Phillies in the hope that his team can scratch and claw their way to a couple runs in support. Roy Halladay, currently with a 1.50 ERA, looks to win his fourth game in five starts and, at the same time, quiet the recent concerns about his lack of strikeouts.

Lineups

Cubs

• David DeJesus, RF (.322 wOBA)
• Tony Campana, CF (.438)
• Starlin Castro, SS (.360)
• Bryan LaHair, 1B (.482)
• Alfonso Soriano, LF (.210)
• Ian Stewart, 3B (.227)
• Darwin Barney, 2B (.332)
• Geovany Soto, C (.199)
• Paul Maholm, SP

Phillies

• Juan Pierre, LF (.321)
• Placido Polanco, 3B (.260)
• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.249)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.326)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.342)
• Ty Wigginton, 1B (.349)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.335)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (.245)
• Roy Halladay, SP

Greetings From Clearwater – April 27

It was an interesting week for Phillies pitching prospects, to say the least. Jesse Biddle and Brody Colvin continued to confound while Trevor May continued his domination of Double-A hitters. At Lakewood, Lino Martinez turned in the worst pitching line of any Phillies farmhand this year, done in by eight-consecutive hits that resulted in a nine-run fourth inning last Friday.

Jesse Biddle

The second-best pitching prospect in the Phillies organization had arguably the best start of his young season last night at home against Daytona, scattering four hits over six innings and avoiding his third-straight loss. The frenzy on the base paths continued, however, as Biddle and catcher Cameron Rupp allowed three stolen bases in three tries, though only one Daytona runner came around to score. That runner, Matt Szczur, likely would have been stranded had Biddle not made a throwing error and allowed him to advance to third on the play.

David Buchanan

Buchanan put nine Flying Squirrels on base via hit, walk, or hit-by-pitch last night, but managed to get through six innings of one-run ball. Buchanan’s quintuplet of walks was three more than he had allowed through his first three starts of the season and matched a career-high. Though he’s averaged a baserunner per inning through four starts, all four of those starts were quality in nature (at least six innings and three or fewer earned runs allowed).

Tyler Cloyd

Seven shutout innings against Richmond on April 24 enabled Cloyd to win his fourth-consecutive game, and his third since being demoted to Double-A Reading. Cloyd rebounded from a shaky start at Richmond on April 16 – in which he allowed 10 hits and three runs over six innings – to ground the Flying Squirrels. (Note: three of the pitchers we’ll talk about today made starts against Richmond last week, and I’m inclined to refer to their nickname, the Flying Squirrels, as often as possible. I love minor league baseball.)

Brody Colvin

It appeared as through Colvin had turned a corner when he shut down Tampa on two hits and six strikeouts in six innings on April 17, but he failed to get out fo the fifth inning against Daytona on Wednesday night. Colvin allowed a season-high five runs and surrendered seven hits for the third time in four appearances.

Austin Hyatt

Hyatt has thrown at least five innings and given up two or fewer earned runs in each of his four starts for the IronPigs this season. After averaging more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings through Double-A, Hyatt’s whiff rate has plummeted by nearly 40 percent at Triple-A, where he’s struck out 16 in 21.1 innings (6.76 SO/9). He’s also putting more runners on base via walk, issuing 3.80 free passes per nine innings this year compared to his pre-2012 career rate of 2.68. If you’re looking for a silver lining, consider that after placing second in the Eastern League with 20 home runs allowed in 2011, Hyatt has yet to surrender a longball this year.

Ervis Manzanillo

Manzanillo made it through five innings for the second time this year, but it wasn’t pretty. Through 16 innnings, the young Venezuelan has allowed 36 base runners, though his 4.5 BB/9 is actually a marked improvement over his 5.4 rate in 2011. Though he’s repeating the level, he’s still young for the South Atlantic League and has plenty of time to work on his command.

Lino Martinez

A nine-run fourth inning blew open a relatively-close game and chased Martinez after he retired only 10 of the 25 Hagerstown batters he faced on April 20. Seven-consecutive Suns batters reached base via hit before an Adrian Nieto three-run homer cleared the bases and gave Hagerstown an 11-1 lead. Martinez was finally able to secure an out when J.P. Ramirez was retired on a fly ball to left field, but that was followed by a Brett Newsome solo home run to center field. Ryan Sasaki relieved Martinez after the Newsome homer, and induced a pair of ground ball outs to escape the inning.

It’s fair to say Martinez’s 2012 season has been a roller coaster to this point:

4/5 @ GVL (ND): 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 SO
4/10 @ GBO (W): 5.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 2 SO
4/15 vs. HAG (W): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO
4/20 @ HAG (L): 3.1 IP, 14 H, 12 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO

Trevor May

Another week, another stellar performance from the Phillies’ top prospect, who struck out seven Richmond batters over six innings while allowing only three base runners (one hit, two walks) in the win on April 25. May entered the year having averaged 7.0 H/9 through 375.2 career innings, but has cut that rate down even further to 4.7 at Double-A. For comparison’s sake, the National League’s top three pitchers in H/9 last year were Clayton Kershaw (6.7), Cole Hamels (7.0), and Matt Cain (7.2). May’s rough season debut, in which he allowed four runs in five innings, mars his overall season line. In his three starts since, May has struck out 20, walked five, and given up nine hits over 18 innings, compiling an 0.90 ERA over that stretch.

Adam Morgan

A six-strikeout performance against Brevard County on April 24 gave Morgan 27 whiffs on the year, a total which currently paces the Florida State League. Morgan rebounded from a loss on April 16 in which he allowed five runs on eight hits at Tampa.

Mike Nesseth

Nesseth set a new season-high with five strikeouts against Asheville on Wednesday, though he failed to escape the fifth inning for the third time in four tries. After walking five Greensboro batters in his previous start, Nesseth walked six Tourists, giving him 15 walks through 15 innings this year.

Jonathan Pettibone

After four starts, it’s safe to start drawing some conclusions about Pettibone’s hittability versus advanced batters. Entering the year, Pettibone had allowed 8.2 hits per nine innings over four seasons, but he’s allowed at least seven hits in each of his four Double-A starts this year and carries a 12.8 H/9 on the year. Right-handed hitters are teeing off at a .382/.408/.471 clip through 71 plate appearances.

Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez labored through three innings against Akron on April 20, exiting after three innings, three walks, four hits, a hit batsman, and two earned runs. He was spared the loss when Reading came back to tie the game in the ninth inning and defeating the Aeros on Steve Susdorf’s game-winning double in the bottom of the tenth. In his three innings, Rodriguez averaged 4.7 pitches per batter. It was also the second-consecutive game in which the 21-year-old had hit a batter with a pitch.

Ethan Stewart

Stewart hasn’t given up more than four hits in any of his four starts this year, but is still seeking his first win after averaging just over five innings per start. He only lasted four innings last night, striking out a season-low three Asheville batters.

Austin Wright

With 23 strikeouts through his first 16 innings, the former Mississippi hurler is making a strong case for a quick promotion out of the Florida State League. Wright matched his career-best with 10 strikeouts in the win on April 22, his third-consecutive winning decision. He’s proven effective against hitters from both sides of the plate, for the moment silencing critics who believe his ultimate destination will be the bullpen.

The Value of a Closer

At The Book Blog, MGL fleshes out an opinion which goes against the Sabermetric consensus that closers are overpaid:

A replacement level short reliever allows around .5 runs per game more than an average pitcher.

An elite closer allows around 1 run better than an average pitcher, or 1.5 runs per game less than a replacement reliever.

A typical elite closer pitches around 70 innings with an average Leverage Index (LI) of 2.0. That means that he pitches 140 “effective” innings.

For 140 innings at 1.5 per 9 innings less than a replacement reliever, that is 23.33 runs better than a replacement reliever, or 2.33 WAR.

In other words, an elite closer is worth around 2.33 WAR per season.

What is that worth in the FA market? Almost 12 million dollars. So, Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, et al. are actually underpaid.

Does that mean that a team cannot acquire a very good reliever who can function as a closer for less than market value, based on his expected (projected) WAR? No, it does not. In fact, it is much easier for a savvy team to acquire and/or use a cheap but good reliever as a closer than it is for a team to do so with any other position.

Still, closers are NOT overpaid as a class, especially the elite ones. In fact, you can make the argument that they are underpaid. Some are of course. But, so are players at any other position.

I take issue with the conclusion for its use of replacement level. Replacement level is great for position players because they are usually replaced by an actual replacement-level player. This isn’t the case for closers. The Cincinnati Reds didn’t replace Ryan Madson with Sam LeCure; they called on Sean Marshall, a lefty who has been nothing short of elite since moving to the bullpen in 2009.

The pecking order for high-leverage relievers is deeper than that of position players or even starting pitchers. It’s a math problem, simply. The bullpen consists of, generally, seven pitchers whose sole job is to get through one inning of work with the least amount of damage. Based on skill, experience, and reputation, those one inning stints will come in a variety of situations, so you have a closer, a set-up man (eighth inning), a LOOGY, a long reliever (two-plus innings in blowouts), and a few middle relievers.

At second base, the Phillies went from Chase Utley to Freddy Galvis, who is your typical replacement level player. Conversely, if Jonathan Papelbon goes down, they simply go to Chad Qualls or Antonio Bastardo, two arms that are decidedly not replacement-level. Those high-leverage innings aren’t given to Michael Schwimer or Joe Savery. The replacement level for closers should be significantly higher than for relievers in general, which is why MGL’s comparison is not accurate.

As an example, let’s say you’re on Yelp, looking for roof repair. You read reviews for a bunch of different candidates, noticing very little correlation between price and competency. The lesser-known roofing companies (LK) have won as many Roofing Company of the Year awards as the big-name companies (BNC). You also notice the lower-quality roofing companies (LQ) who don’t do nearly as good of a job, but some of them charge as much or more than the lesser-known, higher-quality roofing companies. MGL is saying the equivalent of, “BNC aren’t too pricy — they’re cheaper than LQ and do a much better job! LQ only do shingles!” When, in reality, relative to their actual competition (no smart consumer will hire LQ), LK is the much better value: they do the same job at a cheaper price.

When the home team is ahead by one run going into the top of the eighth inning, they are sending their set-up man into a situation with a leverage index of 2.2. When they do the same with their closer in the ninth, the LI is 2.9. Even considering that both titles are fabricated and entirely meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the average salaries of the two positions are not proportional — the closer makes significantly more than the set-up man. By that notion alone, closers are vastly overpaid.

I went through last year’s most frequent eighth- and ninth-inning relievers and noted their 2011 salaries as well. These were the results:

(Blank spaces in the “salary” columns indicate that the player was on a Minor League contract. Cot’s Contracts did not list a salary figure, but it was likely around $415,000.)

Note that while some teams used a more expensive set-up man, the highest set-up salary belonged to Joaquin Benoit at $5.5 million. Five closer salaries exceeded that (four more than doubled it, in fact) and an additional six were between $4-5.5 million.

For the average closer’s salary to have been proportional to the average set-up man’s salary, with regard to their typical leverage index (2.2 to 2.9), it should have been $2.16 million as opposed to $4.39 million. So, based on last year’s data, the average closer was paid roughly twice what he was worth on average relative to set-up men — their next-of-kin.