Marcus Hayes, You’re On Notice

If you read through my What’s Wrong With Ryan Howard? article, you might have read, and probably became upset with Marcus Hayes’ disparaging remarks towards a Sabermetric-using Phillies fan.

A contributor at The Good Phight wrote about it here. Jim from Broad Street Bastards initially sent Hayes the E-Mail that prompted the wrath of the Daily News columnist.

Philadelphia Will Do caught wind of the article written at TGP, and reposted Hayes’ comments, and slammed him in defense of Sabermetrics.

[Quoting Hayes] Sabremetrics [SIC] are the bastion of wannabes who never could quite figure out which hand the mitt went on, a false industry created and fueled by people whose association with the game always will be vicarious, and, frankly, pathetic.

As opposed to sports writers, who are clearly… former… major league… baseball… players? Ha ha, remember when the Phillies were short in the bullpen and they got Marcus Hayes to close that one night? Man, that was awesome.

Marcus Hayes himself apparently showed up and posted a comment to PWD’s blog. He responded thusly:


Just letting you blogicians know:
No longer will you, or anyone else, be afforded the privilege (burden?) of corresponding with me. When I reply to an individual it is intended to be a confidential response. Since I can’t trust you, I assume I can’t trust anyone.
It is not meant to be posted on anyone’s blog, and certainly not on a for-profit entity of a direct competitor.
So, no more responses. Can’t trust you, so don’t bother writing.
But then, if you hold my replies in such low esteem, why bother writing?
Of course, this gives many of you more time for your World of Warcraft RPG endeavors.
Happy gaming.
Hope the eczema clears up.

Marcus Hayes, of the Philadelphia Daily News, you’re officially On Notice!

On Notice

As a self-described distributor of truth, I would like to clear up a few assumptions Hayes makes in his comment (if that was really him):

  • E-Mails are not implicitly confidential. Any parties that you send the E-Mail to have ownership of said E-Mail and can do with it what they wish. However, no one has the right to actually go through your E-Mail (despite what the USA PATRIOT Act says).Most people would abide by a simple request to keep the E-Mail(s) confidential.And it is also important to remember the context in which the exchange between “jonk” at TGP and Hayes took place. It was an informal conversation. Jonk was not interviewing Hayes for the purpose of an article, so the conversation had nothing to do with actual journalism. If Hayes hadn’t been so disparaging, the exchange would have never been posted, most likely.
  • Hayes says that Proponents of Sabermetrics are role-playing nerds with eczema. I can cite two professional baseball players off of the top of my head that are proponents of the Sabermetric approach: Billy Beane, and Carlos Gomez (let me know if there are others, as I’m curious myself).And then there’s Hayes’ ignorant use of stereotypes — that bloggers are unathletic nerds that live in their mothers’ basements. What’s sad is that Hayes’ beliefs about proponents of Sabermetrics are shared by many others in the journalism circles. Fire Joe Morgan does a great job of holding most of them accountable.Oh, and there’s also the irony. In Hayes’ original E-Mail to “jonk” at TGP, he accuses bloggers of living vicariously through the athletes. Well, what do you do then, Mr. Hayes? Aren’t you the one jamming tape recorders under their chin, and talking and writing about them on a daily basis — for which you went to school for four years of your life?

I think Hayes did a great job of making himself look extremely foolish and immature. He has given me ample reasoning to never purchase a newspaper from the Philadelphia Daily News again (not that I had been recently anyway).

If any of my readers are interested in joining me in this boycott, Hayes also appears weekly on ESPN’s First Take, and he participates on a somewhat regular basis with Comcast SportsNet’s Daily News Live, a show featuring host Michael Barkann and three or more guests — writers from the Philadelphia Daily News, as well as some guests (athletes, celebrities, comedians, etc.).

Marcus Hayes, you’re On Notice. You don’t want to be Dead to Me.

2007 NFL Predictions

It’s almost time for regular season football, and you know what that means. Predictions. These are my “incredibly genius now, incredibly stupid later” picks (note: I’m pretty sure the records add up to 256-256). +/- of last season’s record in parentheses.

AFC East

Patriots: 13-3 (+1)
Jets: 10-6 (0)
Dolphins: 5-11 (-1)
Bills: 4-12 (-3)

AFC North

Ravens: 10-6 (-3)
Bengals: 10-6 (+2)
Steelers: 8-8 (0)
Browns: 3-13 (-1)

AFC South

Colts: 11-5 (-1)
Jaguars: 8-8 (0)
Texans: 7-9 (+1)
Titans: 7-9 (-1)

AFC West

Chargers: 12-4 (-2)
Broncos: 9-7 (0)
Chiefs: 7-9 (-2)
Raiders: 6-10 (+4)

NFC East

Eagles: 11-5 (+1)
Cowboys: 9-7 (0)
Giants: 8-8 (0)
Redskins: 6-10 (+1)

NFC North

Chicago: 11-5 (-2)
Minnesota: 8-8 (+2)
Detroit: 6-10 (+3)
Green Bay: 6-10 (-2)

NFC South

Saints: 10-6 (0)
Panthers: 8-8 (0)
Buccaneers: 6-10 (+2)
Falcons: 5-11 (-2)

NFC West

Seahawks: 10-6 (+1)
49ers: 9-7 (+2)
Rams: 7-9 (-1)
Cardinals: 6-10 (+1)



1. Patriots
2. Chargers

3. Colts
4. Ravens
5. Jets
6. Bengals

3. Colts > 6. Bengals
4. Ravens > 5. Jets

1. Patriots > 4. Ravens
2. Chargers > 3. Colts

1. Patriots > 2. Chargers


1. Bears
2. Eagles

3. Saints
4. Seahawks
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys

3. Saints > 6. Cowboys
5. 49ers > 4. Seahawks

1. Bears > 5. 49ers
3. Saints > 2. Eagles

1. Bears > 3. Saints


Patriots > Bears

Feel free to post your predictions and tell me how wrong mine are in the comments.

Now Is It Over?

Cole HamelsThe Phillies have been run through the gauntlet and lived to tell about it. Injury after injury, and bad luck that would make a professional poker player weep (somewhere, Phil Hellmuth is weeping).

It wasn’t enough for the baseball gods to take our most valuable position player from us. They had to take our most valuable pitcher away from us now, as well.

Yes, Cole Hamels is the latest Phillies casualty, succumbing to a mild left elbow strain. According to the Phillies’ website, “A worst-case scenario has the young hurler missing up to three weeks.”

Without Hamels, the starting rotation includes a 44-year-old who passed his prime during the Clinton administration (Jamie Moyer), a right-hander with two months of Major League experience and an extremely low strikeout rate (Kyle Kendrick), the dictionary definition of average (Kyle Lohse), a right-hander that was passed over by three other teams before he was picked out of the dumpster by the Phillies (J.D. Durbin), and now, a question mark (?) should the Phillies feel the need to move along with a five-man rotation.

According to Michael Radano,

Hamels will miss at least two starts because he’s getting an MRI on his mild strained left medial elbow. According to Hamels its at least that long due to the dye that will be injected and he won’t be able to picth. Retro to Aug 17 means he can’t come off the DL until Sept. 2. [SIC]

And, as much as ColeHamelsFacts declares otherwise, Cole cannot pitch equally as effective with his right hand.

At this point, they may as well give some of the Minor League talent a try.

  • J.A. Happ: Has pitched at least six innings in his last five starts, and has allowed no more than three runs in those starts (including two consecutive shutout appearances of six and two-thirds and seven innings).
  • Carlos Carrasco: Threw a six-inning no-hitter on Tuesday. He’s had a few shaky outings recently, but he’s the best pitcher in the Phillies’ Minor League system and it might benefit both parties to give him some Major League experience.
  • Zack Segovia: He’s pitched well for the most part since the beginning of July. He’s pitched at least six innings in six of his last eight outings, averaging an allowance of three runs in each one.
  • Josh Outman: Pitched eight shutout innings on Monday, allowing only four hits, but he did walk five. Prior to that start, he had only pitched past the fifth inning once in his previous four starts, and seems to struggle with control. Nevertheless, he is a left-hander, and left-handers can always find a job at the Major League level.

Other than that, the Phillies really don’t have many options available.

  • They could trade for garbage by scrounging the waiver wires, but it wouldn’t be worth it.
  • Brett Myers won’t be moved back into the rotation.
  • It’s unlikely they will mimic last season’s desperation when they made lifetime relief pitcher Aaron Fultz make a spot start against the Blue Jays.
  • Freddy Garcia still needs three or four rehab starts, according to Rotoworld.

It’s just one more unfortunate situation the Phillies find themselves in, and it couldn’t have happened to a more important player on the Phillies’ roster. They will have to once again walk through the muck and try to survive these next two weeks and hope that the return of Chase Utley and Shane Victorino are adequate reinforcements.

Phillies Need Patience with Utley

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley hasn’t played in a game since July 27, when his fourth metacarpal bone in his right hand was broken by a pitch from Washington Nationals left-hander John Lannan.

Yesterday, Utley was given clearance by his doctors to resume swinging a bat, and he hopes to find himself in the Phillies’ lineup as early as August 27, when the Phillies begin a crucial four-game series with the New York Mets at home.

Prior to his injury, Utley was arguably the National League’s leading candidate for the Most Valuable Player award, as he led or was near the top in many offensive categories including VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), EQA (Equivalent Average), and ESPN’s Player Ratings. In fact, he is still among the leaders in those categories despite having missed nearly a month — he ranks 5th in VORP, 6th in EQA, and 11th in ESPN’s Player Ratings currently. Add to that his impeccable defense — highest Zone Rating among NL second basemen — as well.

Getting Utley back should be a huge boost for the Phillies, although the offense hasn’t really skipped a beat in his absence (5.5 runs per game in the 22 games he’s missed, going 13-9 in that span). However, the Phillies should not rush Utley back in a desperate attempt to gain as much ground in the NL East and Wild Card races as possible.

If Phillies organization is looking for guidance, they should look at Derrek Lee of the Chicago Cubs. Lee had two bones in his hand broken in a collision with the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Rafael Furcal last season on April 19. He didn’t return until June 25 — about two months and a week of missed time.

Lee hit only 5 homeruns the rest of the season (36 games). He missed time from July 24 to August 28 with problems stemming from his injured wrist, likely due to the Cubs rushing him back. Lee said of his injury problems,

It’s just a situation where it isn’t getting better. I was kind of just playing for the sake of playing. I wasn’t helping anybody. So if you’re not helping the team, you’re not helping yourself. (ESPN)

Lee’s line after his initial injury, but before the injury flared up again:

.326 OBP/.320 SLG (1 HR) in 20 games

Lee’s line after the injury flared up, until the end of the season:

.350 OBP/.571 SLG (4 HR) in 16 games

If the Cubs had just been patient with Lee’s recovery, they would have saved themselves (and Lee) a lot of aggravation and probably could have had someone more productive in Lee’s spot.

The Phillies can learn from this. If they don’t see that Utley has returned 100% (they should be observing Utley with a high-intensity magnifying glass every time he picks up a bat or throws a ball), he should not be taken off of the disabled list until mid-September at the earliest (they begin a 3-game series with the Mets at Shea Stadium on September 14).

There is no question that there is a mountain of pressure on the Phillies organization, on manager Charlie Manuel, and on the players (especially the longer-tenured ones like Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell) to at least make the playoffs. But they should not attempt to do so at the expense of the health of one of the best overall players in baseball, and the face of the Phillies franchise.

The Phillies’ front office thought he was valuable enough to pay him $85 million over the next 7 seasons, so he is valuable enough to recuperate at a steady pace.

Here’s hoping he turns out just fine.

What’s Wrong With Ryan Howard?

Our 2005 Rookie of the Year and 2006 National League Most Valuable Player is slumping again. He has certainly earned the right to slump every now and then, as he isn’t the recipient of a lucrative contract (like Pat Burrell) where production is expected. With just a $900,000 salary this season, and with a well-stocked trophy case, Howard has earned the patience of the Philadelphia fans, but I am looking at the calendar, thinking of the date when the town turns against him as they did to Burrell and almost every other big-name Philadelphia athlete (see: McNabb, Donovan; Abreu, Bobby; Rolen, Scott; Schmidt, Mike).

Of course, Howard could just bust out of that slump by altering his approach at the plate and/or his mechanics. “FTN,” a poster at a Phillies forum called Back She Goes, had done some tremendous in-depth analysis of Howard’s mechanics and at-bats from July 25 to August 3. He notes:

Looking at the snapshots of Howard’s AB’s, I see a guy who had some good AB’s early in this “streak”, but then a guy who began to just guess at the plate and wasn’t really seeing the ball. Some of the AB’s deep into this run he just looks like he has no clue what’s coming, even though the sequence is obvious at the time. High-Low-High-Low, or High-High-Low-Low. There isn’t a whole lot of trickery here, except for Eyre coming up with a completely different gear the second time he faced Howard in relief. Howard chased a lot of pitches out of the zone, and in some AB’s, the best pitch of the AB was the first pitch, which he more times than not just let go for a strike. It seems like he’s pressing, that’s probably obvious, and he hasn’t been the same since Utley went down. When he presses, he gets over anxious and tries to do too much with pitches he can’t pull, especially pitches on the outside corner, and he’s vulnerable to the high and inside pitch.

I think at this point, he’s still very conscious of that high and inside hole in his swing, and he’s been setting up very open to try and pull that pitch and not get tied up. As a result of this, his stance is wide open, and when he does his toe tap/load up, he’s still too far open and pointing toward 1B. This forces him to not see the outside pitch, and even if he picks it up, he’s trying to pull it instead of just dumping it into left field.

FTN was also thorough enough to do some mechanical analysis, using some footage of a game against the Florida Marlins last season, and of a game against the Washington Nationals from July 26 of this season. He draws the following conclusions:

Looking at these two swings, I see two real big problems.

1. His stance is way too crouched right now. When you’re bent in that manner, you have to raise yourself back up to make contact, which creates more movement in the swing. His head position is key, as his head remains very steady on the left frame, but moves quite a bit to the right. When trying to pick up spin on a baseball, if you move your head, your eyes obviously are going to move, and it will make it more difficult to pick up spin.

2. He’s very conscious of the inside pitch. In the pitch by pitch sequences above, pitchers are starting to throw him inside more, and he isn’t handling the pitches well. Last year, pitches kept pitching him away and rarely exploited the high/inside quadrant, but that has changed this year. The compensate, Howard is cheating and opening up quicker, trying to pull around on that inside pitch. When he’s doing this, he’s losing his balance, his head is moving, and he’s not seeing the ball.

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Since Chase Utley was injured on July 26 (21 games), Howard has hit just 4 HR and 13 RBI and an OPS of .697. He is neither getting on base (just 13 walks in 95 plate appearances) nor hitting for power. Additionally, he’s been increasingly unable to hit left-handed pitching, which was a staple of his success in 2005 and ’06.

July 27 vs. John Grabow (PIT): Grounds into double play to the second baseman in a two-pitch at-bat. (0-1)

July 28 vs. Shane Youman (PIT): Grounds into fielders choice to the pitcher in a two-pitch at-bat; singles to center field in a three-pitch at-bat; walks on a five-pitch at-bat. (1-2, BB)

July 29 vs. Damaso Marte (PIT): Strikes out swinging in a five-pitch at-bat. (0-1, 1 K)

July 30 vs. Ted Lilly (CHC): Strikes out swinging in a five-pitch at-bat; doubles to right field in a two-pitch at-bat; grounds out to shortstop in a three-pitch at-bat. (1-3, 1 K)

July 31 vs. Will Ohman (CHC): Singles to center field in a three-pitch at-bat. (1-1)

August 1 vs. Rich Hill (CHC): Strikes out swinging in a three-pitch at-bat; strikes out swinging in a seven-pitch at-bat; doubles to center field in a one-pitch at-bat. (1-3, 2 K)

… vs. Scott Eyre (CHC): Strikes out swinging in a five-pitch at-bat. (0-1, 1 K)

August 2 vs. Sean Marshall (CHC): Singles to right field in a two-pitch at-bat; pops up to third base in a five-pitch at-bat. (1-2)

… vs. Scott Eyre (CHC): Strikes out swinging in a five-pitch at-bat. (0-1, 1 K)

August 5 vs. Manny Parra (MIL): Walks in a four-pitch at-bat. (0-0, BB)

August 8 vs. Dontrelle Willis (FLA): Walks in a six-pitch at-bat; pops up to third base in a six-pitch at-bat; flies out to left field in a two-pitch at-bat; singles to left field in a nine-pitch at-bat. (1-3, BB)

… vs. Taylor Tankersley (FLA): Strikes out swinging in a three-pitch at-bat. (0-1, 1 K)

August 9 vs. Taylor Tankersley (FLA): Strikes out swinging in a four-pitch at-bat. (0-1, 1 K)

August 10 vs. Chuck James (ATL): Sacrifice flies to left field in a three-pitch at-bat; flies out to center field in a one-pitch at-bat; grounds out to second base in a one-pitch at-bat. (0-2)

August 14 vs. Ray King (WAS): Grounds out to second base in a three-pitch at-bat. (0-1)
August 17 vs. Tom Gorzelanny (PIT): Pops out to third base in a six-pitch at-bat; pops out foul to third base in a two-pitch at-bat; strikes out looking in a four-pitch at-bat. (0-3, 1 K)

… vs. Shane Youman (PIT): Strikes out swinging in a four-pitch at-bat. (0-1, 1 K)

August 18 vs. Paul Maholm (PIT): Singles to right field in a five-pitch at-bat; grounded out to first base in a four-pitch at-bat; struck out swinging in a five-pitch at-bat; struck out swinging in a five-pitch at-bat. (1-4, 2 K)

That is an aggregate 7-for-31 (.226) with three walks and only two of those hits going for extra bases. In addition, 12 of his 24 outs (50%) have been strikeouts, which indicates that Howard probably isn’t seeing the ball well, and backs up FTN’s conclusions.

So, kudos to FTN for some excellent analysis which appears to be entirely correct. I’d be interested in seeing some screencap-analysis of some of his more recent at-bats (I would but I’m not a MLB.TV subscriber).

Some other interesting analysis similar to that done by FTN from The Hardball Times:

Chamberlain or Hughes: Who’s Got Better Mechanics?

The Four Greatest Homerun Hitters of All-Time: A Video Analysis of Their Swings

The D-Train’s Mechanics

In other Phillies news…

– Ed Wade gets stuck in a tree. [ABC]

– The Philadelphia Daily News’ Marcus Hayes rips proponents of Sabermetrics. [The Good Phight]

Sabremetrics [sic] are the bastion of wannabes who never could quite figure out which hand the mitt went on, a false industry created and fueled by people whose association with the game always will be vicarious, and, frankly, pathetic.

– Mike Zagurski becomes the latest Phillies casualty — a pulled hamstring. []

The list of Phillies to have seen time on the disabled list this season:

  • Rod Barajas, 1 year/$3M , plus $5M 2008 club option
  • Michael Bourn, 1 year/$380,000
  • Adam Eaton,in first year of 3 years/$24.51M contract, plus $9M 2010 mutual option, earning $6.875M in 2007
  • Freddy Garcia, $10M/1 year remaining on 3 years/$27M contract
  • Tom Gordon, 3 years/$18M ($4.5M club option in ’09), earning $7M in 2007
  • Ryan Howard, 1 year/$900,000
  • Jon Lieber, $7.5M/1 year remaining on 3 years/$21M contract
  • Ryan Madson, 1 year/$1.1M
  • Scott Mathieson, 1 year/$380,000
  • Brett Myers, In first year of 3 years/$25.75M contract, earning $5M in 2007
  • Francisco Rosario, 1 year/$100,000
  • Chase Utley, In first year of 7 years/$85M contract, earning $4.5M in 2007
  • Shane Victorino, 1 year/$410,000
  • Jayson Werth, 1 year/$850,000
  • Mike Zagurski, Major League minimum ($380,000)

That is $48,375,000 worth of Major League talent on the disabled list. The Phillies went into the 2007 season with a $89,428,213 payroll. The injuries make up for 54% of the total payroll. And yet the Phillies are still 8 games over .500.

How Many Would Bonds Have Hit [at Home]?

I was pleased to see that my “How Many Would Bonds Have Hit?” article got a lot of feedback, mostly positive, some negative. At the end of my analysis, I asked readers to let me know if I fudged my math at all, and I was told by two readers that I had made two errors: I used Bonds’ home park factor for all of his career HR, instead of just his home HR; and I “turned” all of Bonds’ intentional walks into hypothetical at-bats, instead of using a league-average, or the top-five average I implemented.

The intentional walks issue is minuscule, as the league-average would probably be less than 2, so I’m not going to bother with that. But I definitely need to edit my math (and the title!), using the park factor only to account for homeruns Bonds hit at home.

The adjustment I made doesn’t need a lot of explanation. I simply just created another column for Bonds’ homeruns hit at home, and divided that by the park factor. When that math is done, we find that Bonds has an adjusted 569 homeruns hit at home. Then, we add that to his road homeruns (382, including tonight’s homerun in Florida against the Marlins), and we come up with 951 homeruns.

In the interest of accuracy, I should also adjust for his road homeruns, but that’s just a lot of work. I’d have to find the park factor of every ballpark Bonds played in for each of his 22 seasons.

[Click for full image] That is definitely more realistic than 1,056 — 105 less homeruns, but if I had adjusted for his road homeruns as well, Bonds’ total would likely be back in the four-digits.

You can download the updated spreadsheet here.

How Many Would Bonds Have Hit?

I thought it’d be fun to crunch some numbers to find out how many more homeruns our all-time and single-season homerun king could have hit if he hadn’t played so many years in a home ballpark that was pitcher-friendly, and if he hadn’t been walked so much.

Barry Bonds

To make it fair for walks, I took the top-five in walks in the National League each year that Bonds was among the leaders, and I got the average. Instead of using some of Bonds’ abnormally high walk totals, I used the league-average so that he would hypothetically be getting the usual amount of at-bats. For instance, in 2004, Bonds had only 373 at-bats despite playing in 147 games. That was because he was walked an astronomically high 232 times, 120 of them intentional.First, I got the park factor of Bonds’ home stadium each season (from Wikipedia).

Park Factor

The above equation uses runs. I simply replaced them with homeruns.

Bonds played in Pittsburgh’s Three Rivers Stadium from 1986 to ’92, in San Francisco’s Candlestick Park from ’93 to ’99, and AT&T Park from 2000 to present.

When I found the park factor, I simply divided each season’s homerun total by its respective park factor. Here are the findings:

Bonds has 914 adjusted homeruns.

Then I found the top-five non-Bonds NL leaders in walks each year, which you can find here. You can switch years by editing the last four numbers in the URL. The link I provided gives you the 1989 NL leaders in walks.

I averaged the top-five non-Bonds walks leaders, and used that as Bonds “new” walks total.

Next, I calculated his at-bats per homerun using his actual totals in at-bats and homeruns for each year.

I found his “adjusted at-bats” by taking the season’s at-bats total, and adding to it the “adjusted walks,” which is Bonds’ actual walks total subtracted by his “new” walks total (the average of the top-five).

Bonds now has 980 adjusted homeruns.

Finally, I accounted for all of his intentional walks — at-bats in which he had a 0% chance to hit a homerun. I took his “adjusted AB” and added his intentional walks total to it, then divided by his HR/AB rate.

Bonds now has 1,056 adjusted homeruns — 300 more than Hank Aaron.

For reference, I did not adjust Bonds’ first three seasons, his injury-shortened 2005 season, or for 2007. The reason why is that his walks were pretty much average in his first three seasons, it would be pure 100% speculation to come up with a 2005 homerun total, and although there is nothing wrong with it, I did not want to fudge numbers of a season in progress.

You can download my spreadsheet by clicking here. There are two sheets: the first one has the math you have seen in the above screenshots; the second has the top-five leaders in walks every year from 1989 to 2006.

Please let me know if I fudged my math, either by leaving a comment, instant messaging me (UltraMegaOK1988), or by E-Mailing me (crashburnalley [at] gmail [dot] com).

Remembering Jose Offerman

As the book closes on Jose Offerman’s professional baseball career following his bat-laden assault (second-degree) on Bridgeport Bluefish pitcher Matt Beech and catcher John Nathans, I thought we’d look back on a moment of his I’ll always remember.

Jose Offerman assaulting the Bluefish

May 6, 2005

The Philadelphia Phillies were in Chicago for a three-game series with the Cubs, and the first game was a match up between the late Cory Lidle and the oft-injured Mark Prior. Both pitchers threw gems. Lidle gave up one run on four hits and two walks in seven and one-third innings; Prior mirrored Lidle in eight innings, but struck out ten Phillies.

It was a battle of the bullpens when Lidle left in the eighth inning after allowing a single and a sacrifice bunt. Rheal Cormier got the second out of the inning, but blew the lead by serving a two-run homerun to first baseman Derrek Lee to bring the score to 2-1.

That brought in LaTroy Hawkins to try to put the final three nails in the Phillies coffin in the top of the ninth. He promptly allowed singles to Pat Burrell and David Bell to lead off the inning, but struck out Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard. That brought up the then-sane Jose Offerman, who drew a six-pitch walk to load the bases.

The next hitter, Placido Polanco, then did what he does best — he hit a line drive right back to Hawkins, who caught it in the webbing of his glove. He turned towards first base to see if Offerman was back to the first base bag, and to his delight, he wasn’t, so he quickly threw to Derrek Lee to get the double play.

The ball hit Offerman in the helmet and ricocheted into the stands, allowing both Burrell and Bell to score the tying and go-ahead runs, respectively. Offerman went to third, and instead of sending up a pinch-hitter in a last-ditch effort to score a run, the Phillies allowed closer Billy Wagner to hit for himself after he came in to get the final out of the eighth inning following Lee’s homerun. Wagner cinched the deal in the bottom half of the inning and the Phillies emerged with one of the flukiest wins I have ever seen.

That was the only bright spot Offerman had while with the Phillies, as they designated him for assignment two weeks following that game, and he joined the New York Mets, where he never found success, either. 2005 was his last year in Major League Baseball and he has been fighting to get back ever since.

Jose didn’t have a great career — two good seasons in 1995 and ’98 — but he did provide one memorable moment and I’m glad it was in a Phillies uniform. And he can join the list of malcontent Phillies that includes such luminaries as Ugueth Urbina (attempted murder), Brett Myers (domestic violence), Jason Michaels (punched a cop), and Cole Hamels (bar fighting).

No one will match Darren Daulton, however. Not even Jose Offerman.

Lohse, Branyan Make Gillick Look Crafty

Mere days removed from an awful start by Adam Eaton — a free agent signed by GM Pat Gillick to a three-year, $24.5 million contract — Kyle Lohse and Russell Branyan, the former a trade-deadline acquisition, the latter a waiver-wire pickup, turned in performances worthy enough to send the Phillies to a come-from-behind 3-2 victory on the road against the Washington Nationals.

Going into the series-opener, the Phillies led the National League in many offensive categories, and were among the top in the others, but tonight, they were shut down by Shawn Hill. In six shutout innings, Hill and his sinking fastball allowed only one hit and one walk, and struck out seven.

Lohse was nearly as effective going into the seventh inning. In the six innings prior, Lohse had shut out the Nationals on just two hits and three walks, while striking out four. Unfortunately, the Phillies offense hit a wall and couldn’t find him any run support in his six and two-thirds innings of excellent pitching. In the seventh, Lohse allowed two infield singles to second baseman Tadahito Iguchi (to Iguchi’s credit, they were tough to field), and a well-hit double to left field off of the bat of pinch-hitter Tony Batista.

Cue “Gillick’s Guys.”

As many teams have found out this season, the Phillies are capable of a comeback at any time, and the Phightins proved it once more tonight. After Greg Dobbs harmlessly popped out, Jayson Werth hit a broken-bat grounder that should have been the second out of the inning, but third baseman Ryan Zimmerman airmailed it to first baseman Robert Fick, allowing Werth to advance to second.

The next hitter, catcher Carlos Ruiz, appeared anxious at the plate as usual, but still had a decent at-bat and took advantage of the deep positioning of the Nationals outfielders, dumping an RBI single to centerfield.

And that brought up Russell Branyan, king of The Three True Outcomes (strikeout, walk, and homerun) for his first at-bat as a Phillie. As they say, you have only one chance to make a first impression, and Branyan only needed two pitches in his first at-bat to make a great impression on his new teammates and his new fanbase in Philadelphia. Branyan launched Nationals reliever Jon Rauch’s fastball well beyond the right-field fence for a lead-changing two-run homerun, and, not to sound cliche, but yes, it would have gone out of Yellowstone.

With the Phillies now staked to a 3-2 lead, Tom Gordon came in and held the Nationals scoreless on one hit in the bottom of the eighth. The ninth inning had the bottom of their lineup facing closer Brett Myers, who quickly closed the door by striking out the side — the second time he’s done so in a week (August 8 against the Marlins). game graph 08/14/07

A “Gillick’s Guys” recap…

Lohse: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO (a quality start).

Branyan: 1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI (game-tying and go-ahead RBI’s).

Tonight’s win, even though it was against the lowly Nationals, was almost satisfying enough to forgive Gillick for bringing Adam Eaton back to Philadelphia. But that league-worst ERA is ugly.

Let’s have a look at Gillick’s work this season (all statistics prior to tonight’s game).


Antonio Alfonseca: 116 ERA+
Rod Barajas: 87 OPS+ (injured)
Fabio Castro: 36 ERA+ (sent to minors)
Greg Dobbs: 109 OPS+
J.D. Durbin: 108 ERA+
Adam Eaton: 70 ERA+
Freddy Garcia: 76 ERA+ (injured)
Wes Helms: 77 OPS+
Francisco Rosario: 67 ERA+ (injured)
Matt Smith: 40 ERA+ (injured, sent to minors)
Jayson Werth: 96 OPS+
The line: 11 players, 3 performing at least at a league-average (100) level. And only 6 have stayed healthy and in the Major Leagues.


Russell Branyan: 2-run go-ahead HR in first at-bat. 100 OPS+ prior to joining the Phillies.
Tadahito Iguchi: 125 OPS+
Kyle Lohse: 4.50 ERA, team is 3-0 when he pitches
Jose Mesa: 177 ERA+
J.C. Romero: 356 ERA+
The line: 5 players, 4 performing at least at a league-average (100) level.

Total: 15 players, 7 performing at least at a league-average (100) level.

Tonight’s win definitely makes Gillick look good, and, based on last year’s trade and waiver-wire pickups, he is adept at quickly patching up holes with whatever he finds in the trash bin. But, as the last two months of the season play out, it’s likely that Gillick’s acquisitions (Eaton, namely) end up costing the Phillies more than they help them.

The Smallest Violin Plays for the Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves often do following losses to the Phillies, they whined after tonight’s 5-3 loss to Jamie Moyer and the Phillies. The Braves love to whine about the Phillies, usually for their own imagined reasons.

July 2005: John Smoltz says of Citizens Bank Park, “I’ve played a long time, and some of the balls that are leaving there–it’s not right. It’s a joke.” [Link]

At the time Smoltz said that, Citizens Bank Park was only one and a half seasons old. The CBP homerun tally between the two teams in 2004 and 2005: Braves, 26; Phillies, 16. And the Braves enjoyed an 11-8 record against the Phillies in Philadelphia.

Flash forward to the bottom of the fifth inning in tonight’s nationally broadcast game (meaning the game comes with complimentary terrible commentary by Jon Miller and Joe Morgan) when Atlanta starter Buddy Carlyle starts off the inning with a walk to Jimmy Rollins. Carlyle got the next hitter, Tadahito Iguchi, to hit a ground ball to second baseman Martin Prado, who quickly flipped the ball to shortstop Yunel Escobar for the force at second base. Escobar got off a nice throw to first that was a hair too slow to get Iguchi at first base.

As soon as Escobar released the ball to first base, he caught the umpire’s “safe” motion and threw his arms up in the air as if he was accused of first-degree murder. To add insult to injury, Iguchi was called safe at first, so that was a huge double-whammy for Escobar. And replays showed that Escobar didn’t even come close to touching second base. He was trying to get the throw off as fast as possible with Jimmy Rollins heading full-throttle in his direction.

Bobby Cox came out to argue to no avail, and no, he wasn’t ejected. As a Phillies fan, I don’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing, considering he’s on the precipice of managerial history in terms of ejections.

Pat Burrell popped out on the seventh pitch of the at-bat, and made way for Ryan Howard, who had a walk and a strikeout to his name at that point.

In his first at-bat, Carlyle stayed away from him low and away, and walked Howard on five pitches. Howard wasn’t so fortunate in the third inning, when Carlyle grooved a fastball high and outside for a called strike three.

Carlyle wasn’t so fortunate on Howard’s third try. He tried getting him high and outside again, but Howard was a step ahead of him and drove the pitch 391 feet to left-center for a three-run homerun, staking the Phillies to a 4-2 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

Keep the homerun distance in mind, as it is an important fact that the Braves will conveniently ignore in their post-game whining.

Hit that fast-forward button again to the bottom of the ninth inning. Phillies closer Brett Myers easily retired Andruw Jones and Brian McCann, leaving the Braves’ hopes with pinch-hitter Willie Harris.

Myers threw Harris five straight fastballs, all at least 94 MPH, and all but one were low and outside. The last pitch, a 96-MPH called strike three on the outside corner, elicited some barking and gesturing from Myers at Harris and the Braves’ dugout, who didn’t take very kindly to his actions.

As Michael Radano notes on his blog,

If you saw the final strike of the night, you may have seen a little extra showmanship from Brett Myers.

Understand that Myers knows Braves hitter Willie Harris. The two were in the minors together and while they like to compete against one another, they have a good talking relationship.

Anyway, back in A-ball, Harris abused Myers. Always a leadoff hitter, Myers tried to overpower Harris with his fastball with little luck as Harris would slash away. Finally, Myers decided to “**** with him” and threw him a curve to start a game that Harris more than struggled with.

According to Myers, he faced him once this year and threw the curves, prompting Harris to challenge Myers manhood in a face-to-face.

Myers being Myers, he saw the final at bat of the ninth as a challenge. Fastball No.1 drew a smirk from Harris. Fastballs two, three and four allowed Myers to look in and at one point, show Harris four fingers. On the fifth fastball, Harris froze and began his walk back to the dugout.

“I wanted to show him I have *****,” Myers said with a grin.

That’s not it, though. The Braves were not exactly gracious losers. Some quotes, courtesy

Bobby Cox on Howard’s three-run homerun (remember the distance — 391 feet), said, “It was a little fly ball. It was out here and Cincinnati, and maybe Houston.”

391 feet is only out of Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Houston’s ballparks? It would’ve been out of yours too, Bobby. From the Braves website, the left-field power alley is 380 feet. Howard’s homerun would have been at least 3 or 4 rows back at Turner Field.

Jeff Francoeur was a bit more subtle. “We lost on a ball that just happened to go out of the ballpark. That’s all I can say. It’s tough to lose that way.”

Just happened to go out? Was Jeff watching the same homerun the rest of the country was watching?

And just for convenience sake, a recap of tonight’s whining from the Atlanta Braves:

– Yunel Escobar’s “throw your hands up in the air if you care” routine when he clearly didn’t touch any part of the second base bag, and Bobby Cox’s subsequent argument with the umpires (both at second base and at first, as he felt Iguchi was also out at first).

– Willie Harris and the Braves’ dugout yapping following Myers’ called strike three to end the game.

– Bobby Cox and Jeff Francoeur pouting about Ryan Howard’s game-winning, 391-foot, three-run homerun that would have left any ballpark.

Can someone get these guys on The Montel Williams Show? It is so unfortunate that they have to play in such a bandbox, where the other team gets more offensive innings than they do! (For those without sarcasm detectors, the Phillies had 8 offensive innings; the Braves had 9, so they had more chances to hit “little fly balls” for homeruns.)