An Explanation for the Phillies’ Recent Bullpen Silliness

by Michael Baumann on May 11th, 2012
Posted in Crabshurn Urly | Print | 20 Comments »

Perhaps no publication has had an editorial stance of being more distraught and mystified by Charlie Manuel’s bullpen usage than this one. However, a source inside the Phillies’ front office has told us that the Phillies’ manager, a keen student of history, is in fact adapting a tactical doctrine from the late 12th Century to baseball.

It’s not unusual for coaches to adapt tenets of military strategy to sports as motivational or organizational guideposts–Patriots coach Bill Belichick is fond of Sun Tzu, though Clausewitz is also said to be popular–but Manuel, the source says, is fond of a doctrine first conceived of in the Third Crusade.

The story centers on a man named Louis Phillippe, a barber from Anjou, France. When Pope Gregory VIII called for a crusade to retake Jerusalem–which had been lost in a siege in 1187, the events of which were stylized and loosely retold in Ridley Scott’s 2005 film Kingdom of Heaven–Louis Phillippe, a deeply religious man, responded to the call and volunteered to serve as a man-at-arms in the army of King Richard I of England. Barbers of the time often doubled as makeshift doctors and surgeons, so when Louis Phillippe’s unit was separated from the army and ambushed by a Byzantine battalion six months into the campaign. Louis Phillippe tended expertly to the wounded, and when the survivors retreated to safety, he fought bravely at the rearguard, allowing dozens of his fellow soldiers to escape.

When Louis Phillippe and his companions were reunited with the Crusader army, news of his heroism reached King Richard himself, and he was granted an audience before the Holy See himself. Pope Celestine III, who succeeded Gregory and Clement III, both of whom had died in the intervening years, took a liking to the young man and insisted that he be released from the Crusader army and serve as the Pope’s personal valet and barber.

Louis Phillippe served happily in Rome until 1196, when the pontiff had a dream that he took to be a vision from God Himself. Celestine called for Louis Phillippe and asked him to crop his hair short and remove his trademark beard. Louis Phillippe did so, and the newly-shorn pope commanded his barber to return to his home in Anjou with a lock of the pope’s hair, seek an audience with the count, and declare that it was God’s will for all of Europe to be united under a single flag to conquer not only Jerusalem–which Richard the Lionheart would ultimately fail to do–but the Moorish caliphate in Iberia as well. It is said that Celestine sent out dozens of such messengers around this time.

Louis Phillippe, the pope’s friend and servant, took a letter of introduction from Pope Celestine and a bag of his hair, and set off for Anjou. When he arrived at the castle, he was stopped at the gate and denied entry, arrested, and brought before the count in chains. Louis Phillippe’s letter had been confiscated in the meantime, and when he preached the Pope’s vision of the united Christian Europe, he was laughed out of the room, arrested and sentenced to be burned at the stake as a heretic.

Louis Phillippe protested, citing his bond of friendship with the pope, but the count was unimpressed. He had no reason to believe Louis Phillippe was who he said he was–an emissary from the pontiff–and demanded the sentence be carried out immediately.

Louis Phillippe of Anjou was executed on December 1, 1195. His ashes were scattered in a field somewhere in northwestern France.

If you’re wondering what possible application this story has to baseball, here’s what Charlie Manuel got out of it:

A papal bond is worthless if you’re in a situation where you can’t get credit for the shave.

 

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Phillies Bullpen: Shutdowns and Meltdowns

by Ryan Sommers on May 10th, 2012
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 4 Comments »

Happy off day. I think we all, fans, writers, and players alike, needed it dearly. This morning Bryan Grosnick of Beyond the Boxscore posted a Shutdowns and Meltdowns leaderboard for Major League relievers so far in 2012. For those unfamiliar, an extensive explanation by Fangraphs’ Steve Slowinski can be found here. In short form, a reliever who adds .060 or more to his team’s win expectancy — that is, increases his team’s probability of winning the game by 6% or more — receives a “shutdown.” A reliever who decreases his team’s win probability by 6% or more receives a “meltdown.”

The 6% threshold is calibrated so that a shutdown’s value corresponds roughly with that of a save, while disposing of the statistic’s needless complicating factors and removing the emphasis on closers. Middle relievers, long relievers, set up men, and specialists have just as much an opportunity to receive a shutdown. Meltdowns have the same egalitarian quality, and demarcate blow-ups that the Blown Save statistic takes far less frequent notice of. So rather than a simple look at peripherals or ERA (always a dicey metric, both this early in the season and for relievers in general), Grosnick’s leaderboard notes the contributions of relievers who have most positively contributed to their team’s chances of winning the game with their appearances.

Let’s take a look at the embattled, migraine-inducing Phillies bullpen through this lens:

Reliever SD MD xFIP SIERA
Jonathan Papelbon 5 1 3.25 2.69
Antonio Bastardo 5 3 5.31 5.19
Chad Qualls 5 3 4.15 4.25
Jose Contreras 2 3 3.32 2.86
Kyle Kendrick 1 1 7.09 6.58
Joe Savery 0 1 5.40 5.16
Joe Blanton 0 1 11.50 6.13
Michael Stutes 0 1 6.40 5.36
David Herndon 0 1 1.96 2.09
Brian Sanches 0 1 5.65 4.75
Michael Schwimer 0 3 6.29 6.24

So that’s 18 shutdowns and 19 meltdowns total thus far from the bullpen. The large proportion of Phillies games decided in the 9th or later probably washes away some of the statistic’s aforementioned egalitarianism. Still, it’s not pretty. There is some evidence that unluckiness is a factor — the bullpen’s 5.59 ERA doesn’t quite sync with its 4.67 xFIP or 4.31 SIERA, and their strand rate is only 63.6%. But they’re certainly striking out too few (16.6% of batters faced) and walking too many (10.8%), and their 37.9% ground ball rate is a recipe for disaster.

I think it’s fair to say that the team as a whole is not that much better than what we’ve seen so far, though the improbable prevalence of walk off losses has probably made it look worse than it really is. Don’t be surprised though, if the bullpen looks like less of a culprit down the road. The offense has been scoring 4.9 runs per game in the last 5 series, a pace that is impossible to sustain with the talent currently on the roster. The bullpen is not exactly an all-star cast, but it’s a sure bet to improve on its current ERA (and here again I must mention that the way it has been utilized is partly to blame).

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What We Know: 30(+2) Games In

by Paul Boye on May 9th, 2012
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 28 Comments »

The Phillies are 14-18, five games back of first place in the East, and were just swept out of their home ballpark by the Mets in three games. There wasn’t a whole lot to like about the most recent series, one in which the Phillies saw a lead slip away in each game (and sometimes more than once in the same contest).

If there’s a positive, it’s that the team has hit. With double-digit hits in six of the last 12 games, I’m personally almost confused by this thing called “offense” existing at all. Following Wednesday’s game, the Phillies’ collective OBP is above .300 for just the fourth time all season. To the points.

Games 21-32 Recap

  • Record: 5-7
  • RS: 58; RA: 64
  • Notes: Cliff Lee returned from the DL; Jim Thome hit the 15-day DL and Erik Kratz was recalled; Joe Savery was optioned with a corresponding move TBA as of this posting
  • Kyle Kendrick has allowed 16 baserunners in his last two appearances (6+ IP)

The velocity was there. The stuff was crisp and darting as always. Doc rebounded from a
tough start against Atlanta to spin seven fine innings against the Mets, despite surrendering
a lead for the second straight start. Encouraging.

His season line of .225/.233/.268 is still ugly, but JMJ has at least struck the ball better in the last few games (as per the eye test, anyway). It’ll take a serious hot streak to get his
numbers to approach latter-2011 status, though.

  • Crap to Pap

It’s the Bridge to Lidge, only 157 times worse.

Jon Papelbon is having a nice season, Jordany Valdespin or not. Everyone else in the Phillies’ ‘pen, well, can’t really have the same said about them. Peripherally, David Herndon has done some good work, but he’s hurt; Stutes is also hurt; Schwimer and Savery have been up and optioned already; Antonio Bastardo and Chad Qualls are walking too many guys, Jose Contreras is still old and Brian Sanches is gasoline.

This says nothing of Kyle Kendrick, yet to earn about $6 million of the $7.5 million owed him over the course of the 2012-13 seasons. As tweeted earlier last week, since his debut season of 2007, only two other Major League pitchers with at least 400 innings under their belts have a lower K/9 than Kendrick: Paul Byrd (who last pitched in the Majors in ’09) and Aaron Cook. He was ineffective in his first start in place of Lee, good enough in the next two and an absolute disaster in relief Wednesday. Kendrick’s deal is, to me, the most puzzling move of the past offseason, and certainly doesn’t look to be on the way to being one of the more valuable ones.

Cole Hamels has a 7.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That leads all qualifying Major League
pitchers. He remains a free-agent-to-be.

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General Isaac Trimble and Kyle Kendrick

by Michael Baumann on May 9th, 2012
Posted in Crabshurn Urly, NL East Whining, Talking about feelings | Print | 8 Comments »

While watching Kyle Kendrick come in with a two-run lead and go walk-double-double-hit-by-pitch against a Mets lineup reminiscent of….you know what, I’m not even going to bother.

But we witnessed Kyle Kendrick, the Michael Bay of Phillies pitchers (keeps getting work without really ever having done anything substantively good, his appearance attended by explosions and disaster, and makes a lot of money), hitting Lucas Duda with a pitch to force in a run in a situation with a 4.30 leverage index (he posted a -0.66 WPA tonight, btw, the worst mark by a Phillies reliever since Ryan Madson blew a four-run lead in the ninth inning against the Nationals on August 19 of last year). Kendrick stood on the mound with the comportment of a man who’d like nothing more than to dig a hole in the infield and escape through the catacombs.

And yet Charlie Manuel sent him out for a second inning. Then replaced him with Jose Contreras, who hasn’t been effective in two years, and the runs continued to pour in.

I was reminded of this iconic scene from the 1993 movie Gettysburg, where a commander’s inaction eventually costs his side the battle.

Now, Charlie Manuel probably had a good reason to leave Kendrick in, but nevertheless, I’ve rewritten that scene in honor of tonight’s events.

Gen. Ruben Amaro, Jr.: General Lee.
Maj. Gen. Cliff Lee: Sir, I most respectfully request another assignment.
Amaro: Do please go on, General.
Lee: The man is a disgrace! Sir, have you been listening at all to… to what the aides have been telling you? Ask General Halladay or General Blanton. Ask them. We could’ve taken that game! God in His wisdom knows we *should’ve* taken it! There was no one there, no there at all, and it commanded the series.
[he sighs]
Lee: General Manuel saw it. I mean, he was with us! Me and Halladay and Blanton, all standing there in the dark like fat, great idiots with that bloody damned bullpen empty!
[he stops]
Lee: I beg your pardon, General.
[Amaro nods]
Lee: That bloody damned bullpen was empty as his bloody damned head! We all saw it, as God is my witness! We were all there. I said to him, “General Manuel, we have *got* to take that game.” General Bowa would not have stopped like this, with the Mets on the run and there was plenty of light left on a game like that! Well, God help us, I… I don’t know wh… I don’t know why I…
[he stops]
Amaro: Do please continue, General.
Lee: Yes, sir. Sir… I said to him, General Manuel, these words. I said to him, “Sir, give me one Papelbon and I will take that game.” And he said nothing. He just stood there, he stared at me. I said, “General Manuel, give me one Qualls and I will take that hill.” I was becoming disturbed, sir. And General Manuel put his arms behind him and blinked. So I said, General, give me one *Bastardo* and I will take that hill.” And he said *nothing*! He just stood there! I threw down my glove, down on the ground in front of him!
[he stops and regains his composure]
Lee: We… we could’ve done it, sir. A blind man should’ve seen it. Now they’re working up there. You can hear the axes of the Met troops. And so in the morning… many a good boy will die… taking that game.

 

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Mets-Phillies Game Thread 5/9/12

by Michael Baumann on May 9th, 2012
Posted in Game Threads | Print | 53 Comments »

No matter what, the Phillies cannot possibly lose tonight in as absurd and forehead-palm-slapping a manner as they have done the past two nights. But let’s not dwell on that. Cliff Lee is back, folks! And he’s once again pitted against his orthographic archnemesis, Mets righthander Dillon Gee. With that said, I’d just as soon bat Lee seventh as Brian Schneider or El Falcon, Freddy Galvis.

The Mets, like the Phillies, counter with a lineup that shows nothing but the utmost contempt for anyone unfortunate enough to watch this game, with Scott Hairston in the cleanup spot and a man named Vinny Rottino (who sounds like he’d be delicious with a side of Tom Gorzelanny) playing left field. Also in the lineup is former University of Southern California quarterback Rob Johnson, who was recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to replace starting catcher Josh Thole, who was KTFO by Ty Wigginton two days ago. I could have sworn he left the Bills for Tampa Bay years ago, but I’ll admit I’m not as up on my NFL news as a used to be. Between Rottino, Johnson, and Gee, Terry Collins submits for your approval a lineup, fully a third of which has yet to run the bases this season.

Speaking of Wigginton, he, along with Laynce Nix and Carlos Ruiz, are all shaking off minor injuries and will be withheld from the game. Matt Gelb of the Inquirer has the details here, in case you were wondering why the Phillies’ lineup tonight resembles the opening credits of Starship Troopers 2: Hero of the Federation more than it usually does.

Lineups

Mets

Phillies
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Draftstreet.com $250 Free Fantasy Baseball Challenge

by Bill Baer on May 9th, 2012
Posted in MLB | Print | No Comments »

DraftStreet.com

Fantasy Baseball Freeroll

CLICK HERE TO PLAY

Baseball season is under way and it’s time for fantasy baseball. But not the full-season, six-month kind. I’m talking about a one-night showdown. Crashburn Alley has teamed up with DraftStreet.com to offer an exclusive free contest to you, the loyal Crashburn Alley readers. The freeroll will have $250 in cash prizes, the top 6 get paid, and it is totally free to sign up. How can you not get in on this?

Here’s how you play: Fill out your roster (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 U, 2 SP, RP, P) while staying within the budget of $100k. Player salaries are set by DraftStreet based on fantasy production. So, if you want to put Cliff Lee on the mound, it might cost you $18k, which means you’ll have to find some bargains to fill out the rest of your squad.

Sign up now for free. Build a team. You can adjust your roster up until the games start. Then check out the scoreboard when the games start and watch your team win you cash. You can even show off your team when you start racking up the points.

DAILY
HITTING  PITCHING
1B  1 pt  BBI  -.25 pts
2B  2 pts  HA  -.25 pts
3B  3 pts  HB  -.25 pts
BB  .75 pts  ER  -.75 pts
HR  4 pts  IP  .9 pts
HP  .75 pts  K  .7 pts
R  1.5 pts  L  -.75 pts
RBI  1.5 pts  S  3 pts
SB  2 pts  W  1.5 pts
KO  -.75 pt  CG  1 pt
GDP  -.75 pts  BS  -.75 pts
CS  -1 pt
SAC  .75 pts

League Start Date: Friday, May 11th, 7:05 pm. The first games are Astros/Pirates, Padres/Phillies, Mariners/Yankees, and Rays/Orioles.

League Duration: One day only.

Current Prize Pool: $250, top 6 get paid

Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 U, 2 SP, RP, P

CLICK HERE TO PLAY

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Mets-Phillies Game Thread 5/8/12

by Bill Baer on May 8th, 2012
Posted in Game Threads, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 56 Comments »

The Phillies haven’t won consecutive games in over a week and they haven’t been above .500 since Opening Day. After last night’s crushing loss on Jordany Valdespin‘s three-run ninth-inning home run, the Phillies will try to get back on their winning ways once again tonight. If ever there was a night for it, it is tonight as the Phillies will oppose the struggling 41-year-old Miguel Batista. The veteran right-hander has operated as a swing man in the Mets’ bullpen and will be making his second start of the season tonight. In 13 innings thus far, he has struck out 11 and walked 13, making for hilarious strikeout and walk rates. Batista will be opposed by Joe Blanton, coming off his best start as a Phillie last Thursday in Atlanta. In fact, Blanton is on a bit of a roll as he has not walked a batter in either of his previous two starts while striking out 14 in 16 and one-third innings.

Lineups

Mets

Phillies

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Greetings From Clearwater – May 8

by Bradley Ankrom on May 8th, 2012
Posted in Philadelphia Phillies, Prospects | Print | 4 Comments »

I’ll be honest, folks. It wasn’t a very good week for Phillies hitting prospects. A notable exception was Cesar Hernandez, who hit .444 in six games and continued to demonstrate improved power, collecting 20 total bases.

PLAYER

AGE

LVL

AVG/OBP/SLG

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

SO

SB

CS
A. Altherr, of

21

A

.284/.336/.422

109

31

5

2

2

6

24

10

3
M. Alvarez, of

22

A+

.222/.222/.259

27

6

1

0

0

0

13

1

0
C. Asche, 3b

22

A+

.340/.374/.420

100

34

4

2

0

6

16

1

2
J. Barnes, 3b

25

A+

.140/.240/.163

43

6

1

0

0

6

17

0

0
L. Castro, of

23

AA

.222/.273/.322

90

20

6

0

1

3

22

2

3
K. Dugan, 1b/of

21

A

.245/.344/.396

53

13

2

0

2

7

15

0

0
E. Duran, ss

21

A+

.265/.304/.373

83

22

3

3

0

5

14

1

2
G. Eldemire, of

23

A

.239/.378/.318

88

21

5

1

0

18

27

14

2
M. Franco, 3b

19

A

.224/.303/.383

107

24

6

1

3

10

21

0

0
F. Galvis, ss

22

MLB

.189/.211/.289

90

17

6

0

1

3

15

0

0
T. Gillies, cf

23

AA

.279/.353/.423

104

29

6

3

1

8

18

4

1
G. Gonzalez, ss

21

A

.207/.241/.207

82

17

0

0

0

3

19

3

0
T. Greene, ss

19

A

.153/.279/.278

72

11

6

0

1

13

34

2

0
C. Hernandez, 2b

22

AA

.321/.345/.462

106

34

9

3

0

5

18

2

4
A. Hewitt, of

23

A+

.257/.312/.405

74

19

2

0

3

4

20

3

1
K. Hudson, cf

21

A

.165/.198/.209

91

15

2

1

0

2

33

14

3
J. James, cf

23

AA

.220/.260/.407

91

20

4

2

3

5

30

2

3
H. Martinez, 3b

22

A

.240/.278/.320

50

12

4

0

0

3

7

0

0
L. Moore, c

21

A

.194/.351/.323

62

12

5

0

1

12

21

0

1
C. Overbeck, 3b

26

AAA

.279/.321/.404

104

29

7

0

2

7

18

0

0
C. Perdomo, ss

22

A

.250/.321/.354

48

12

2

0

1

4

6

4

2
B. Pointer, of

20

A

.245/.331/.480

102

25

5

2

5

13

33

5

0
D. Ruf, 1b

25

AA

.368/.413/.509

106

39

6

0

3

10

18

2

0
C. Rupp, c

23

A+

.257/.329/.365

74

19

5

0

1

8

16

0

0
S. Valle, c

21

AA

.259/.299/.346

81

21

4

0

1

5

25

0

0

THE GREAT.

Cesar Hernandez – 12-for-27, 4 2B, 2 3B; the hottest player in the organization right now, Hernandez had four multi-hit games last week, including a 4-for-5 effort on May 4 that included a pair of doubles. He currently has nine doubles, two more than he had all of last year, and is on pace to surpass his career-best total of 13 before June.

THE GOOD.

Cody Asche – 9-for-25, 2B, 3B last week; went 4-for-5 (all singles) on Sunday, and currently has an eight-game hitting streak.

Edgar Duran – 7-for 20, 2B; snapped an eight-game walkless streak on May 2 and added another two days later.

Anthony Hewitt – 11-for-27, 2B, HR; has nine hits in his last three games, raising his batting average from .212 to .257. Still striking out much too often.

Leandro Castro – 5-for-20, 2B; currently has a five-game hitting streak and has scored a run in each of Reading’s last four games.

Carlos Perdomo – 4-for-9, 2B.

THE BAD.

Gauntlett Eldemire – 5-for-21, 2B; still walking, but not as regularly.

Tyson Gillies – 5-for-21, 3B; has a five-game walk streak and only struck out three times last week.

Gustavo Gonzalez – 3-for-15.

Tyler Greene – 1-for-11; inexplicably drew seven walks last week with only four strikeouts. Still not hitting, however, and has only two extra-base hits in his last 14 games.

Harold Martinez – 5-for-23; had doubles in four of his first five games, but no extra-base hits over his last eight.

Cody Overbeck – 3-for-21, 2B; batting average dropped from .313 to .279 in six games.

Cameron Rupp – 4-for-19, 2B; six strikeouts and one walk in his last four games.

THE UGLY.

Aaron Altherr – 4-for-23, 2B, HR; has whiffed in five-consecutive games, and totaled eight strikeouts (and two walks) last week.

Maikel Franco – 4-for-22, 2B; last night’s double was Franco’s first extra-base hit since April 28.

Jiwan James – 2-for-19, HR; only two-for-five on the basepaths after stealing 64 bases in 2010-11.

Brian Pointer – 2-for-24, 2 2B; the fact that both of his hits last week were doubles is the only thing that kept me from simply putting an emoticon frowny face as his comment.

Sebastian Valle – 3-for-17, 2B; on-base percentage dips below .300 for the first time this year.

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Breaking It Down: Placido Polanco’s Bunt

by Bill Baer on May 8th, 2012
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 27 Comments »

Last night’s 5-2 loss to the New York Mets will be remembered for rookie Jordany Valdespin‘s three-run home run in the top of the ninth inning, the proverbial nail in the coffin. The 24-year-old had gone hitless in his first six plate appearances in the Majors, but got his first hit against one of the game’s most dominant relief pitchers in Papelbon.

However, while that play was quite memorable, the Phillies could have put themselves in a better position to win in the previous inning — and relied on the butterfly effect for Valdespin’s home run to have never happened — with some better judgment. In the bottom of the eighth, with the score tied at two apiece, the Phillies put their first two base runners on with singles by Ty Wigginton and Carlos Ruiz. Based on the 2011 season, 1.4 runs scored on average with runners on first and second with no outs. Charlie Manuel chose to have Placido Polanco bunt the runners over, which changes the run expectancy to 1.3 runs with runners on second and third with one out. That late in the game, with the score tied at home with your best reliever ostensibly fresh and not rusty after a week of riding the pine, such a play is defensible.

The problem was, though, that Freddy Galvis lurked on deck. Galvis, with a .105 ISO in his 91 PA to date, would need to power a ball to the outfield against Mets reliever Bobby Parnell, a hard-throwing right-hander with a great ability to miss bats and induce ground balls.

Here’s a look at where left-handed hitters have put the ball in play against Parnell so far this season, followed by a look at where Parnell tends to throw his pitches.

Only two lefties hit the ball well against Parnell: Chipper Jones in Atlanta and Adam LaRoche in New York (the location explains why they weren’t home runs). The only other fly ball was hit by Jimmy Rollins in the previous inning of last night’s game (it is the leftmost light-blue box in the outfield). Considering Parnell’s power and Galvis’ complete lack of it, a sacrifice fly would have been a miracle.

Here’s a look at where Galvis put the ball in play when he made contact with pitches on the outer-third of the strike zone against right-handed pitching.

The three deepest balls in left field were hit on fastballs. From left to right: against Jeff Karstens (90 MPH), against Ernesto Frieri (94 MPH), and against Anibal Sanchez (91 MPH, double). Mostly, Galvis hit ground balls between first and second base. Parnell hit 93-95 with his fastball leading up to his face-off with Galvis, then reached 97-98 against Galvis. Needless to say, the odds of Galvis catching up with a 97 MPH fastball and hitting it deep enough to the outfield to score a run were not in his favor.

The Phillies could have pinch-hit for Galvis for Laynce Nix, but they knew the Mets would have quickly replaced Parnell with lefty Tim Byrdak. In fact, that is exactly what happened after the at-bat involving Galvis. Right-handed options off the Phillies’ bench included Erik Kratz and… that’s it. So, here were the scenarios:

  • Hit with Polanco, keep 0.1 runs on average. Polanco had already doubled and had seven hits in his previous 21 PA entering the night. Even at his worst, he generally does a good job of putting the ball in play.
  • Bunt with Polanco, hit with Galvis. Lose 0.1 runs on average, and hope Galvis can hit a BABIP-inspired ground ball. Galvis entered the night with the eighth-lowest wOBA in the Majors.
  • Pinch-hit for Galvis with Nix, who then faces Byrdak (3.59 career xFIP vs. LHB). Nix carried a career .232 wOBA vs. LHP with a 32% fly ball rate.
  • Pinch-hit for Bastardo with Nix, then replace Nix with Kratz when the Mets call on Byrdak. The 32-year-old Kratz had a career .162 wOBA in 44 Major League plate appearances entering the night.

None of the post-bunt match-ups were any more favorable than Polanco vs. Parnell. Despite his woeful start to the season, Polanco has been able to muscle the ball to the outfield with regularity.

As it happened, Polanco successfully bunted the runners over to second and third. Galvis then followed it up with a ground ball that went all of 60 feet.

Afterwards, Nix pinch-hit for Antonio Bastardo. The Mets brought in Byrdak, so Manuel replaced Nix with Kratz, who struck out swinging. The Phillies scored zero runs in a situation that called for at least one, even after willingly giving up one of six remaining regulation outs.

There is no guarantee that Polanco succeeds against Parnell. In fact, the nature of baseball itself would make Polanco between two and three times as likely to fail as succeed. However, as we have been focusing a lot on optimal strategy thus far in the 2012 season, it seems as if letting Polanco swing away would have been the right call than letting the weak-hitting Galvis take his hacks.

Sub-optimal strategy was rarely a problem for the Phillies in previous years because they had enough talent to make up for it. For instance, Manuel’s unwillingness to remove an ineffective Brad Lidge from the closer’s role in 2009 certainly cost the Phillies a handful of games, but they won 93 games and took the NL East by a six-game margin. 2012 is a different story. Accounting for the first month of the season, Dan Szymborski’s updated ZiPS projections has the Phillies at 84-78, seven games behind in third place in the NL East. The Phillies simply don’t have the margin to cope with bad in-game decision-making. By bullpen mismanagement alone, Manuel has cost the Phillies up to five games and his repeated reliance on the sacrifice bunt even more. With moderately better strategy, the Phillies could reasonably have four more wins and four fewer losses, putting them at 18-12 instead of 14-16. Playing catch-up in a new-and-improved NL East would be monumentally easier, but that simply won’t be the case going forward if the Phillies don’t play smarter.

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Phillies Reliever Usage, Graphically

by Bill Baer on May 8th, 2012
Posted in Graphs, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 11 Comments »

Much has been made about the sub-optimal usage of relievers by manager Charlie Manuel lately. The Phillies are 0-4 in extra-inning games and in each of those four games, their $50 million reliever Jonathan Papelbon was never used. The Phillies also lost in nine innings on April 8 in Pittsburgh when Papelbon could have — and some would argue should have — been used. How, exactly, have the relievers been applied, though?

I arranged each plate appearance for each Phillies reliever from the beginning of the season through last night and created bar graphs indicating the leverage index. (Last night’s data not included as this post was compiled prior to the game. Unfortunately.)

As you can see, Jonathan Papelbon has had yet to face a batter with a leverage index greater than 4.00. The only other relievers in that same group are Jose Contreras, Joe Savery, and Mike Stutes. In fact, Papelbon’s highest-leverage plate appearance (3.78 on April 12) is the 20th-highest among Phillies relievers. The 20 ahead of him have all come on the road, however, and due to Manuel’s insistence that closers cannot be used in tie games on the road, he has been left to rot in the bullpen while inferior relievers stood on the mound only for the Phillies to lose the game.

Pitcher Date Inning H/A bHWE aHWE bLI aLI
Sanches 5/2/2012 9 A 0.65 0.50 6.40 2.18
Schwimer 5/4/2012 11 A 0.65 1.00 6.38 0.00
Schwimer 5/2/2012 8 A 0.34 0.75 6.07 4.49
Qualls 5/4/2012 8 A 0.63 0.50 5.44 2.22
Qualls 5/4/2012 8 A 0.38 0.78 5.37 3.34
Bastardo 4/8/2012 8 A 0.38 0.27 5.34 4.75
Qualls 5/4/2012 8 A 0.77 0.63 4.95 5.44
Herndon 4/8/2012 9 A 0.82 0.62 4.90 4.56
Bastardo 4/8/2012 8 A 0.27 0.59 4.75 3.46
Herndon 4/8/2012 9 A 0.62 1.00 4.56 0.00
Schwimer 5/2/2012 8 A 0.75 0.87 4.49 0.42
Bastardo 4/18/2012 11 A 0.68 1.00 4.42 0.00
Sanches 5/2/2012 9 A 0.69 0.60 4.36 4.21
Schwimer 5/2/2012 8 A 0.21 0.34 4.32 6.07
Bastardo 4/7/2012 9 A 0.61 0.50 4.28 2.24
Schwimer 5/4/2012 11 A 0.60 0.65 4.26 6.38
Sanches 5/2/2012 9 A 0.60 0.65 4.21 6.40
Qualls 5/4/2012 8 A 0.38 0.34 4.08 3.58
Kendrick 4/8/2012 8 A 0.38 0.29 4.04 3.32
Papelbon 4/12/2012 9 H 0.85 1.00 3.78 0.00

Note: A lower-case b indicates the stat before the PA was started and a lower-case a indicates the stat after the PA was completed. LI stands for Leverage Index and HWE stands for the home team’s Win Expectancy.

The following chart shows the percentage of a reliever’s own total PA have come in each leverage bucket. Two out of every three (66%) of Jonathan Papelbon’s PA have come with the leverage index under 1.00. As the leverage goes up, Papelbon’s appearance percentage goes from 66% to 20% to 7% to 7%.

This chart shows each reliever’s share within each leverage bucket. Jonathan Papelbon has had 30% of the Phillies’ bullpen’s PA in the 0-0.99 and 1-1.99 buckets.

Papelbon has shown to be the Phillies’ best reliever so far, averaging more than a strikeout per inning and more than three strikeouts for every walk. Why one wouldn’t consistently use him in the most important of situations is mind-boggling.

Special thanks to David Appelman of FanGraphs for providing me the data to play with, and to Matt (@Slap_Bet) for Excel help.

Regarding last night’s debacle involving Papelbon, my only comment is a link to this Wikipedia entry.

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