By Law, I Am Required to Post This

From FanGraphs, when pitching statistics become reliable:

150 BF – K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate
200 BF – flyball rate, GB/FB
500 BF – K/BB, pop up rate
550 BF – BB/PA

In case it’s not obvious, you can tell a lot more about a hitter from one year of data than you can about a pitcher.  All this data is from research that Pizza Cutter conducted, which can be found in the links below.  If a statistic is not included, the means it did not stabilize over the intervals that Pizza Cutter tested (which was up to 750 PA / BF).

Last year, Cole Hamels faced 26 batters per game on average, which means that we need to see at least six starts (about one month) before we can begin making up Hamels-related theories.

Hamels was bad last night. Was it a fluke? Maybe. Is his performance a bad omen? Maybe. In one isolated game last night, Hamels had trouble with his command (two walks in two and two-thirds innings) and was a bit unlucky on balls in play (lots of bloop hits, a scorching line drive by Ike Davis notwithstanding). Perhaps the weather bothered him, though he pitched just fine in the cold, rainy weather during the 2008 World Series.

I can see the Bleacher Report articles now: “10 reasons why Hamels doesn’t have the mental fortitude to pitch in April” or “17 signs Hamels is offended to be the #4 starter”. The 610 WIP callers will scream about how Hamels has become complacent pitching behind three aces.

Using sample size constraints limits discussion topics, but you’ll thank yourself at the end of the season when you think back on the season and don’t look like an idiot for projecting doomsday scenarios, as many did with Hamels last year. I get it, though. Corey Seidman said it beautifully at Brotherly Glove:

When Hamels annoys us, we react. When the other three [Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt] annoy us, we bite our tongue because we’re so grateful that they bless us with their presence.

[…] [we] don’t hate Hamels, [we’re] just so much more passionate about him because he dated us before we had money.

Ryan Madson, Closing, and Contracts

Over at Brotherly Glove, Eric Seidman refutes the suggestion that the Phillies named Jose Contreras closer partially to deflate Ryan Madson‘s leverage in contract negotiations.

While the idea that the team is trying to cost-control Madson by not allowing him to close is interesting from a storyline standpoint, I highly doubt the Phillies are implementing such a devious tactic.

How would it even make sense? The front office would spend this year deflating Madson’s confidence, convincing him that he lacks the mental fortitude to be a closer, hoping that he and Boras buy in and re-sign at a lesser price, only to eventually use Madson in the role they said he could not fill? It’s just too wacky a theory when every angle is examined.

I haven’t seen anyone else suggest this besides myself, so it’s just a theory of mine and is in no way a fact. However, over the years, the Phillies have shown themselves to be very acutely aware of any and all contract situations. Before Cliff Lee, they absolutely refused to devote more than three years to any pitcher, Roy Halladay included. For all of the contracts former GM Pat Gillick and current GM Ruben Amaro have handed out, the only two that have come back to haunt them were the ones awarded to Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins (though some, including myself, will argue that Ryan Howard‘s contract will end up being a mistake).

Let’s not forget that Amaro’s secretive handling of the Lee signing was incredibly strategic. The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers were considered the heavy favorites to sign Lee; the Phillies were never even considered.

Additionally, the Phillies have traditionally set their payroll as a specific percentage of revenue.

Year Revenue ($M) Payroll ($M) Ratio
2005 $167 $95 1.76
2006 $176 $88 2.00
2007 $183 $89 2.06
2008 $192 $98 1.96
2009 $216 $113 1.91
2010 $233 $138 1.69
2011 $239 $169 1.41

From 2005-08, the Phillies had a ratio between 1.76 and 2.06. As soon as they won the World Series, ownership felt the best way to continue to turn a profit was to devote more money to payroll. So as the Phillies made more and more money by selling more tickets, merchandise, advertisements, etc. they sank more of it into the players and coaches on the field.

In 2009, the Phillies signed Howard to $54 million contract extension, signed Ryan Madson to a $12 million contract extension, traded for Cliff Lee, and avoided arbitration with Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino, among others.

Last year, the Phillies traded for Halladay and signed him to a $60 million contract extension, signed Howard to a $125 million contract extension, traded for Roy Oswalt, signed Blanton to a $24 million contract extension, signed Victorino to a $22 million contract extension, signed free agent Placido Polanco to an $18 million deal, and signed Carlos Ruiz to an $8.85 million extension.

Going into 2011, the Phillies signed Lee, exercised Jimmy Rollins‘ $8.5 option, and re-signed Jose Contreras for $5.5 million.

Clearly, the Phillies have become very dedicated to putting out the best possible team that money can buy. However, there is a limit to how much the Phillies can spend. As their current streak of 126 sellouts will attest, you can only sell so many tickets to every game; you can only sell so many jerseys before everyone has one (or seven); you can only sell so much advertising. As profitable as the Phillies are, they cannot yet print their own money like the New York Yankees, which Forbes valued at nearly three times the Phillies ($1.7 billion to $609 million).

The Phillies cannot continue to spend with reckless abandon, especially given how heavily some of the contracts they’ve awarded have been back-loaded. Between now and some time during the next off-season, the Phillies’ front office will be carefully analyzing what they can do with upcoming free agents and position vacancies. Potential free agents include Raul Ibanez (LF), Rollins (SS), Madson (RP), Danys Baez (RP), Brian Schneider (C), Ross Gload (1B/OF), and J.C. Romero (RP). Four arbitration cases await for Cole Hamels (SP), Kyle Kendrick (SP), Ben Francisco, and Wilson Valdez. Roy Oswalt can also be kept around for $16 million or bought out for $2 million. Brad Lidge will likely be bought out for $2 million. As of right now, the Phillies have $113 million committed to nine players.

The case of Madson may seem like an insignificant blip on the radar, but it will actually play quite a large role in how the Phillies’ manage their roster going forward. In baseball, because of the perceived importance of the ninth inning, closers make significantly more money than other relievers. Consider some closers around baseball that have hit free agency:

The only set-up reliever who has come anywhere close was Rafael Soriano, who signed a three-year, $35 million contract with the New York Yankees. But again, they print their own money.

Therefore, it is true that as Madson’s save opportunities increase, so too will his price tag. This is not a fact unknown to the Phillies. If Madson gets scant save opportunities, he and his agent Scott Boras have less leverage in negotiations. They can cite his K/9, BB/9, and xFIP as I have been for the past couple years, but when Amaro cites his relatively low saves total and save conversion rate, there’s not much of a counter-argument, as irrational as it may be.

Assuming a 2012 Opening Day payroll of $175 million, the Phillies have around $65 million to spend on at least 16 players. Chopping Madson’s asking price from (example) three years, $30 million to (example) three years, $18 million is a big deal. Saving $4 million in annual average value nets them a player worth about one extra win above replacement.

I agree that suggesting that the Phillies are intentionally fixing Madson’s price is a wacky suggestion, but I wouldn’t put it past the Phillies. Their front office has been among the trickiest (and best) in all of baseball.

Announcement: Phillies 24/7 HD Radio

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve heard me hint about an announcement for a while now, and I can finally spill the beans. I’ve been asked to contribute to a new HD radio station with WOGL that will have Phillies content 24/7. My show is called Stathead and will air Tuesdays from 3-4 PM ET. Jeff Sottolano will co-host the show with me.

Below is the official press release and information about the shows on the Phillies 24/7 HD radio station.




Philadelphia, March 31st, 2011 – The Philadelphia Phillies and CBS RADIO’s WOGL today announced the launch of Phillies 24/7, the first ever HD Radio multicast station exclusively dedicated to a Major League Baseball team.  Phillies 24/7 will air continuously throughout the year and feature live play-by-play of every regular season Phillies game on-air at 98.1 WOGL HD4, plus game re-broadcasts the following morning at 9am.  The channel will launch on Friday, April 1 when the Phillies take on the Houston Astros in their home opener (1:05pm).

CBS RADIO’s WPHT serves as the Phillies radio broadcast flagship, a position they’ve held since 2005 after previously holding that title from 1982-2001.

In addition to game coverage, Phillies 24/7 will broadcast a full schedule of unique daily and weekly programs centered on the team, as well as provide behind the scenes access at Citizens Bank Park, and archived audio content including classic game replays.  Phillies fans can expect to hear new shows heard only on Phillies 24/7, including Phillies Today – a daily look at all things Phillies on the field and off, Phillies Phorum – a weekly opportunity for fans to ask questions via email, Facebook, and Twitter, and Phillies Playlist – a look at what’s playing on a different Phillies’ mp3 player each week.

Marc Rayfield, Senior Vice President of CBS RADIO Philadelphia had this to say about the partnership, “We are thrilled to embark upon this new endeavor with the Phillies. There is an insatiable appetite for this team, and CBS RADIO’s HD platform allows us to use new technology to bring Phillies related content to their fans 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. And the best part is it’s free!”

“Creating this channel for our fans is a natural way to give them even more access to the team. We are excited to partner with CBS RADIO on this unique and exciting project,“ Phillies Senior Vice President of Marketing and Advertising Sales David Buck added.

HD Radio™ Technology is fueling the digital evolution of AM/FM radio in the US and elsewhere. It allows broadcasters to offer new digital channels through multicasting, crystal-clear sound, and advanced data services – all free, with no subscription fee. HD Radio Technology is available nationwide with more than 2,000 digital stations on-air and an additional 1,300 HD2/HD3/HD4 digital-only channels that broadcast fresh new content that can only be heard with an HD Radio receiver. These receivers are available in retail stores and online from major electronics brands, as well as in new vehicles from 17 automotive brands. For more information, visit


WOGL AND WPHT are owned and operated by CBS RADIO, one of the largest major-market radio operators in the United States.   A division of CBS Corporation, CBS RADIO owns and operates 130 radio stations, the majority of which are in the nation’s top 50 markets.  CBS RADIO also owns and operates KYW-AM, WIP-AM and WYSP in Philadelphia.

The landing page for the station can be found here.

Stat Head (Most Tuesdays at 3pm)

Statistics have always been a big deal in baseball. There are the numbers you know about, the hits, runs and errors. There are other numbers though, deeper numbers. Our resident stat head, Bill Baer of breaks them down for you and tells you what you might be missing.

Tune into the show and please leave feedback here and on the station’s website/email. This week’s show covers expectations with the starting rotation, choosing between Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras, and what’s left at second base sans Chase Utley. I think the show is unlike anything else you’ll get on the radio — level-headed, objective analysis of the Phillies.

If you’re unfamiliar with HD radio, as I was, check out this page as it explains everything you need to know. To tune in, just find 98.1 WOGL HD-4. You should be able to find HD radios at most electronics stores such as Best Buy and Radio Shack.

Mets Series Preview with Joe Janish

The 3-0 Phillies square off against the 2-1 Mets for a three game series. I caught up with fellow SweetSpotter Joe Janish of Mets Today to get some info on the Mets.

1. The Mets are off to a 2-1 start. Obviously, just about everybody is picking against the Mets this year, but was there anything in those three games that provided some optimism?

As usual, it helped that the Marlins beat themselves in the opening series. The good news is that, unusually, the Mets didn’t beat themselves and took advantage of a fundamentally poor team’s mistakes. Also, it appears that R.A. Dickey‘s carriage has not turned to a pumpkin and Jon Niese may be poised for a breakout season. Additionally, Josh Thole continues to make strides both at and behind the plate. Carlos Beltran has taken the field twice, and Jose Reyes hasn’t yet injured himself. In short, I’m basking in a positive glow but waiting for the sky to fall at any minute.

2. I caught some heat on your blog last year because I called Mike Pelfrey a fluke. Are fans’ expectations of Pelfrey lowered after his decline last year, or do you expect him to emerge as one of the better pitchers in baseball this year?

Fans’ expectations are for Pelfrey to be as good or better than he was last year — he is the de facto “ace” after all. Unfortunately I’m seeing the same mechanical inconsistencies that affected his command and likely contributed to his shoulder woes last year. Oh, did you know Pelfrey pitched with a strained rotator cuff and posterior capsule last year, and took a pain-killing shot before every start? We didn’t either, not until a few days ago. Since he hasn’t yet made the mechanical correction, I fear his command issues will only worsen, and that he may further damage his shoulder. So, no, I don’t expect him to emerge as one of baseball’s better pitchers this year (but hope that I’m wrong).

3. Ike Davis is off to a fast start. What kind of year do you think he’ll have offensively? Does he make the list of baseball’s top-ten first basemen?

Davis has made a few adjustments as the NL adjusted to him — and that is how players succeed at this level. I don’t know if he’ll be a top-ten first baseman but he should improve upon last year’s numbers. I would peg him be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 HR, .270 – .280 AVG, .350 – .360 OBP, .450 – .475 SLG.

4. Francisco Rodriguez blew a save on Saturday. Is he over the hill? If he falters, who can the Mets use in the ninth inning?

K-Rod isn’t over the hill, but he’s rolling down it. His velocity has dropped markedly since putting on a Mets uniform — there were times last year that he struggled to hit 90 MPH. As a result he has relied heavily on his change-up and breaking stuff, and hitters have caught on. I believe much of his problems stem from the combination of an ankle injury that led to mechanical changes, and I don’t believe he’ll ever be a $17.5M closer. If he falters to the point where he needs to be replaced, the Mets will be overjoyed, as the previously alluded to $17.5M option is tied to games finished. I would guess that flamethrowing Bobby Parnell would get first crack at closing, though if Jason Isringhausen gets on the 25-man roster he would also be a candidate.

5. Do you expect Carlos Beltran to remain a Met throughout the season? What are the chances Jose Reyes is signed to a contract extension?

No and none. I’m making sure to fully appreciate every single at-bat of those two players early on, as I expect a fire sale come July.

6. The match-ups in this three-game series will be Chris Young/Cole Hamels, Mike Pelfrey/Joe Blanton, and Jon Niese/Roy Halladay. How do you see the series playing out — how many will the Mets win?

Young has pitched well in spring training and healthy so far, but I don’t like how his high-ball style will play in CBP. Unless Pelfrey does an absolute about-face, things could get ugly. Niese is the one who I have the most confidence in right now, but he’s going against Doc. How many will the Mets win? Let’s just say I’ll be pleased if they get out of Philly with one victory.

. . .

Thanks again to Joe for shedding some light on the new New York Mets. Hop over to his blog Mets Today for my answers to his questions, and to keep up on Mets-related stuff throughout the season.

Video: Q&A with Lee, Howard, Ibanez, Lidge

Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Brad Lidge took some questions from fans at a Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce event.

The 2011 On Deck with the Phillies Reception, a Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce event sponsored by KPMG and co-sponsored by Pennoni, allowed Chamber Members and Phillies fans to participate in an informal Q & A session with Phillies stars Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, and Brad Lidge.

Hilarious moment at around the 2:40 mark.

Breaking Down David Schoenfield’s Phillies Prediction

Note: Skip down to the bolded text if you’d like to avoid a rant. That’s where the real Phillies-related stuff begins.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield recently wrote an article about the Phillies that evoked some very negative reactions from Phillies fans. It’s titled, “Why the Phillies won’t make the playoffs“. Making that statement about the Phillies, who have reached the post-season in every season since 2007 and have assembled arguably the greatest starting rotation in baseball history, is going to generate some, uh, conversation. Accuscore gives the Phillies a 76 percent chance to make the playoffs, by far the largest in baseball, beating the Boston Red Sox at 67 percent.

Schoenfield definitely went out on a limb, but he did a good job of explaining his thought process that led him to such a conclusion. I haven’t seen his detractors provide much of a counter-argument. The majority of the commenters on his article left me feeling very disappointed, and I’ve seen many others dismiss him outright on Twitter, which is completely undeserved. Unfortunately, this is the downside of giving everybody a platform to make themselves heard. ESPN, of course, appeals to a much more mainstream demographic and Schoenfield’s heavy use of Sabermetrics and rational reasoning seems foreign.

I don’t agree with everything Schoenfield wrote. However, just because I disagree with him and he disparaged my favorite team doesn’t give me the right to question his integrity. A rational discussion between two people who disagree shouldn’t go like this:

  • Person 1: The Phillies will not make the playoffs. Here’s why.

This post from Tango (as do the rest of the posts on his blog) shows the way a rational discussion should take place.

  • Person 1: The Phillies will not make the playoffs. Here’s why.
  • Person 2: I disagree with your claim because your Reason 1 is based on a faulty premise; you are relying too heavily on one piece of information; your evidence is lacking.
  • Person 1: Here are more reasons that support my claim. (Or: You are right. I will amend my position.)
  • Person 2: Interesting. Those reasons support your claim and make a convincing argument. I will amend my position. (Or: Repeat skeptical argumentation.)

That type of formulaic conversation seems dull to many people, but that is the basic structure of conversations people have every day — it’s just not as obvious as above. I think that, in general, people need to do a better job of being open-minded and willing to have these rational discussions. People are far too quick to bury their heads in the sand or plug their fingers in their ears because they are unwilling or unable to participate in such discourse.

Now that I have that rant out of my system, let’s actually examine Schoenfield’s claims and see how they pan out. I suggest you read his article first. I am not going to do a lot of quoting; instead, I will just highlight his main bullet points and refer to his arguments, assuming you’ve already read the material.

1. Roy Oswalt is around for a full season.

Schoenfield starts out at 95 wins for the Phillies since that was their Pythagorean W-L expectation last year. I don’t agree with that method. Instead, I’d have preferred he base the starting figure on projections. For instance, PECOTA has the Phillies at 89 wins. Given that Schoenfield started at 95 and ended up at 92, that would actually bring the Phillies down to 86 wins given the rest of his logic and that would have enraged tens of thousands more. However, it’s better to base a 2011 win projection on 2011 projections rather than 2010 runs scored and runs allowed totals.

As for Oswalt, Schoenfield correctly notes that a full season — rather than a half-season — of Oswalt is a good thing. He uses pitcher WAR from FanGraphs to derive Oswalt’s value. FanGraphs bases pitcher WAR on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In other words, their pitcher valuation comes from what should have happened rather than what actually happened. This is why I have rarely (never?) used fWAR for pitchers. Value should be based on what happened, not what should have happened. As a projection for 2011, however, using FIP (or xFIP or SIERA) is totally fine.

Baseball Prospectus has Oswalt at 4.6 WARP in 2010 (2.5 with the Phillies), and projects 3.6 WARP this season. Their win metric is based on results, not retrodiction. Schoenfield’s addition of two wins for the Phillies was actually a bit generous, since Prospectus has Oswalt adding only one more win with a full season compared to his half-season.

2. Cliff Lee in, Jayson Werth out.

Schoenfield doesn’t state which projection system he’s using. It’s an important distinction to make because not all projection systems are alike. Bill James’ projections (which you can find at FanGraphs), for example, tend to be overly optimistic about hitters. In fact, analysts say that James’ projections, taken as a whole, are untenable.

In this post, I examined PECOTA’s projections for the Phillies and made my own adjustments as I thought they were a bit too pessimistic with regard to Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. Last year, Phillies starters combined for 165 VORP, which includes 50 starts from Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer. With my adjustments, PECOTA projects the 2011 starters at 217 VORP, or an increase of about five wins better. Schoenfield again was generous, citing the addition of Lee as a six-win gain.

Werth has averaged about five wins over the last three years. Calling for another five wins in 2011 is not in any way unrealistic. PECOTA has him at 3.7 WARP, which I think is too pessimistic. Schoenfield cites Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown as combined 1-WAR players, which PECOTA agrees with. Generously, that’s a three-win drop. Realistically, it’s four wins.

3. Chase Utley out.

Given the uncertainty around Utley’s condition, I’m not comfortable with any playing time projections at the moment. Schoenfield takes two wins away from Utley, who averaged about 6 WARP from 2005-09. PECOTA has him at 3 WARP in just under 400 PA, which means Utley misses a little over one-third of the season (basically, he’s back in mid-June). If you buy it, that’s a loss of three wins, which is more severe than Schoenfield anticipates.

4. Decline from Carlos Ruiz and Raul Ibanez.

I’ve covered both Ruiz and Ibanez during the off-season. Here, I explained that a lot of Ruiz’s offensive success in 2010 was fluky, based on an unsustainable BABIP. PECOTA sees Ruiz dropping from a .400 OBP and .447 SLG last year to a .347 OBP and .388 SLG in 2011. The OBP drop makes sense because of the BABIP luck, and the SLG drop makes sense for the same reason, but also because his isolaTed Power actually dropped from .171 in ’09 to .146.

PECOTA has Ruiz dropping from 3.5 WARP to 2.3. Schoenfield was in that vicinity.

As for Ibanez, here I discussed why he is likely going to fall around the league average for National League left fielders (~.770 OPS). The arguments against Ibanez usually focus on age and proneness to injury, but no one who uses those arguments ever quantifies exactly how that will affect his production. In the last three years, Ibanez has missed only 28 days due to injury and has had only one stint on the 15-day disabled list.

PECOTA has Ibanez being slightly worse in 2011, going from 1 WARP to 0.7. Schoenfield took a way one whole win. Given the uncertainty with projections, that’s not a big deal.

5. Jimmy Rollins is healthy and will play better.

Schoenfield credits the Phillies with another win with a healthy and better-performing Rollins. PECOTA projects a gain of 0.7 WARP. Personally, I’m more optimistic. FanGraphs valued Rollins at about 5 WAR on average from 2004-08, before injuries and bad luck derailed his past two seasons. He was at 2.7 and 2.3 WAR in ’09 and ’10 respectively. The difference between FanGraphs and Prospectus is defense. Prospectus has him at -18 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA). FanGraphs, which uses UZR among other metrics, disagrees. His Aggregate Defensive Rating (ADR), which is a composite of all of the various metrics, had him at +8 last year and +3 the year before.

When the statistics disagree, that’s when it’s a good idea to bring your own eyes and ears into the picture (not before!). I’m sure 99 percent of Phillies fans who have religiously watched most or all of the Phillies games over the past two years will agree that there has been no noticeable decline in Rollins’ defense, injuries aside. When healthy, he is a well above-average defender. So I have Rollins being as many as 2.5 wins better in 2011. Honestly, none of us have a high level of certainty around our expectations of Rollins.

6. Bullpen Issues

Schoenfield says that Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras are unlikely to be as good in 2011 as they were the year before, but he doesn’t provide any reasoning here. SIERA, which does a good job of predicting next-year performance based on current-year information, put Madson at 2.49 (actually only shades lower than his 2.55 ERA) and Contreras at 3.19. Strikeout and walk rates are the best predictors of pitcher performance, and Madson hit a career high 10.9 K/9 and a career low 2.2 BB/9. Contreras posted a 9.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.

PECOTA is particularly harsh to Madson, predicting a 3.64 ERA with an 8.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. I completely disagree with that. Contreras is at a 4.36 ERA with a 6.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Needless to say, I’m not sold. If there are reasons to expect Madson and Contreras to be considerably worse in 2011 than they were last year, I haven’t seen them.

Additionally, I disagree that the rest of the bullpen will be an issue. The best arms — Madson and Contreras — will be pitching the highest-leverage innings. I’m not comfortable with Danys Baez, David Herndon, and Kyle Kendrick, but given the amount of innings the Phillies’ starters will pitch, they’re just about insignificant. J.C. Romero is very effective when he faces left-handed hitters, which should be a majority of the time.

Schoenfield subtracts two wins because of the supposedly bad bullpen and calls that “conservative”. Actually, Madson-Contreras in the eighth and ninth compared to Madson-Lidge can be considered an upgrade, accounting for leverage. But I’ll call it a push.

That ends the Phillies-specific line of Schoenfield’s reasoning. He winds up at 94 wins, then subtracts two more wins because of the perceived improvement of the rest of the National League East. The decision to take away two wins seems arbitrary, especially since he didn’t do the same line of reasoning for the rest of the teams (which, admittedly, is very time-consuming). Additionally, using a WAR-to-wins conversion isn’t a flawless method. At FanGraphs, Dave Cameron says that the standard deviation between WAR and actual record is about six wins. In other words, if you put the Phillies at 92 wins, they will fall somewhere between 86 and 98 wins about 68 percent of the time. 95 percent of the time, they’ll fall between 80 and 104 wins. In other words, there’s actually a lot of uncertainty, even with WAR.

While I disagree with Schoenfield on some points and with some of his methods, the real takeaway from all of this is that I am not any more sure than he is (and neither are the people who so menacingly disparaged Schoenfield’s writing). People always say that the beauty of baseball lies in its randomness, and nowhere is that more evident than in that standard deviation of six “wins”. Breakout and breakdown seasons, batted ball flukes, and many more factors bring a lot of uncertainty to the table. If you are going to discredit someone else’s projections, especially when they put a lot of time and effort into producing and explaining them, then you need to reciprocate — show your work, then we can move towards a middle ground.

Phillies Stage Comeback, Win on Opening Day

Opening Day appeared to be a cold, dreary, roughly three-hour loss for the Phillies. The Astros chased Roy Halladay after six innings and 101 pitches, then bolstered their lead to 4-0 when they tagged J.C. Romero and David Herndon for three runs. Through six innings, the Phillies could only muster three base runners and mounted no offensive threats against Brett Myers.

Then, in the seventh, they worked counts better, their batted balls found holes, and they made productive outs. A sacrifice fly by Ryan Howard and an RBI ground out from Raul Ibanez brought the Phillies back to 4-2. After an unproductive eighth inning, the Phillies needed to score at least two runs in the ninth against closer Brandon Lyon. After two singles and a stolen base, they had runners on first and third with one out. From there, it was the story of Phillies should-be reserves. Ben Francisco, Wilson Valdez, and John Mayberry each hit RBI singles and the Phillies had completed the highly unlikely: they had come back from a four-run deficit with nine outs to go.

As the win probability graph (via FanGraphs) illustrates, the Phillies had about a 10 percent chance to win at the start of the seventh inning. As the seventh inning came to a close, after the Phillies had halved their deficit, their win probability was still only 13 percent.

Despite the great ending, I was a bit disappointed by the Phillies’ lack of plate discipline. 36 Phillies came to the plate yesterday, 20 of them saw three pitches or fewer. Four swung at the first pitch. Through six innings, the Phillies had seen a grand total of 56 pitches from Myers, an average of less than ten pitches per inning.

With Chase Utley injured and Jayson Werth elsewhere in the NL East, the Phillies do not have many players adept at working counts. The chart below shows their average pitches seen per plate appearance from 2010.

The top-three in the Phillies’ batting order — Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, and Jimmy Rollins — each saw 3.75 or fewer pitches per plate appearance last year, which is not great. Prorating their averages over 650 plate appearances, Werth would have seen 2,840 pitches while Rollins comes in at 2,420; Victorino 2,387; and Polanco 2,303. The difference of 400 pitches accounts for about one-sixth of their pitches seen.

Seeing pitches has more than the obvious benefit of wearing a pitcher out and getting into the opposing team’s bullpen: it allows hitters to more accurately predict which pitches are coming, which leads to better offensive success. It should come as no surprise that, last year, hitters posted an OPS 270 points higher in hitter-favored counts than in even counts.

Previously, I had remarked that the Phillies don’t have many hitters with good on-base skills. Their relative lack of plate discipline plays a large role in that. If the Phillies intend on remaining near the top of the National League in offense, they will need to have a more disciplined approach in the batter’s box.

Joe Posnanski’s 32-Best in 2011

Joe Posnanski, the Ted Williams of baseball scribes, offered his list of baseball’s 32-best players in 2011. Why 32?

I have little doubt that the following list is also a mess … but at least I know what I want: I am putting together my prediction for the 32 best players in baseball in 2011. That’s all. I’m not considering seasons beyond. I’m not thinking about who is best to build my team around in 2014. Everything is built around 2011.

Cliff Lee came in at #16, Chase Utley at #12, and Roy Halladay at #2. Three players in the top-32? Not too shabby. I was surprised to see Poz rank Utley between Troy Tulowitzki (#11) and Tim Lincecum (#13) since the list is focused only on the short-term, and Utley’s short-term future is very much unknown. I’m also surprised Cole Hamels didn’t make the list, but Matt Cain did.

I have a few other minor quibbles but generally speaking I think Poz did a fantastic job ranking the top-32. Tango offers a good way to look at these types of lists:

Are his top 5 in my top 10? Are his top 10 in my top 30? Are his top 20 in my top 50? Are his top 30 in my top 80? Are his top 40 in my top 100?
Because that is really how the talent is spread out.

The Phillies’ NL East foes each had one player make the list: Brian McCann (#24) for the Atlanta Braves; David Wright (#21) for the New York Mets; Ryan Zimmerman (#18) for the Washington Nationals; and Hanley Ramirez (#7) for the Florida Marlins.

. . .

Elsewhere, Justin Bopp looked at the infield components for Ultimate Zone Rating from 2006-10, the popular defensive metric created by Mitchel Lichtman, found at FanGraphs. Range runs accounted for 65 percent of all defensive runs saved, while error runs came in at 26 percent and nine percent for double play runs.

Luckily for us, he created an example graphic for an individual player and he just so happened to be a Phillie. Click to view the full-scale version at Beyond the Box Score.

Phillies Opening Day 2011

It’s Christmas morning, the Fourth of July, Thanksgiving, and New Year’s Eve all rolled into one: it’s Opening Day at Citizens Bank Park. If you’re not stoked, you are a soulless, heartless being. Roy Halladay will attempt to start the Phillies off on the right foot and defend his 2010 National League Cy Young award against the Houston Astros. Brett Myers will toe the rubber for the Astros, looking to exact revenge against his former team.

Despite a continued battle with injuries, the Phillies are much more optimistic than the Astros going into 2011. They are looking to earn a division title for the fifth year in a row with what may become the greatest starting rotation in baseball history. The Astros are coming off of their second consecutive sub-.500 season and don’t have too much to look forward to this year. Their second-highest paid player actually plays for the Phillies: Roy Oswalt.

Lots of tables to follow to help preview the series, including both a look into the past and a look into the future. Use the comments below as an open thread for today’s game and this series in general. If you’re going to the game today, bring a space heater!

2010 Overall W-L RS RA Pythag Finish
Houston Astros 76-86 611 729 68-94 5th, NLC
Philadelphia Phillies 97-65 772 640 95-67 1st, NLE


2010 Offense AVG OBP SLG ISO wOBA
Houston Astros .247 .303 .362 .115 .296
Philadelphia Phillies .260 .332 .413 .153 .328


2010 Pitching SP ERA SP K/9 SP BB/9 RP ERA RP K/9 RP BB/9
Houston Astros 3.90 7.9 3.5 4.49 6.9 3.3
Philadelphia Phillies 3.55 7.0 2.1 4.02 8.1 3.8


2011 PECOTA Projections
Michael Bourn .250 .317 .332
Angel Sanchez .253 .301 .325
Hunter Pence .272 .324 .453
Carlos Lee .268 .318 .448
Chris Johnson .266 .300 .422
Brett Wallace .249 .311 .403
Bill Hall .223 .290 .391
Humberto Quintero .235 .271 .334


2011 PECOTA Projections
Shane Victorino .273 .336 .423
Placido Polanco .282 .325 .375
Jimmy Rollins .257 .316 .417
Ryan Howard .262 .351 .528
Raul Ibanez .260 .330 .439
Ben Francisco .259 .324 .423
Carlos Ruiz .259 .349 .391
Wilson Valdez .258 .309 .333


2011 PECOTA Projections
Player IP ERA K/9 BB/9 GB%
Brett Myers 159.1 3.99 7.4 2.9 48%
Wandy Rodriguez 181.2 3.87 7.7 3.0 46%
J.A. Happ 144.2 4.35 7.2 4.0 42%


2011 PECOTA Projections
Player IP ERA K/9 BB/9 GB%
Roy Halladay 239.2 3.05 6.9 1.4 51%
Cliff Lee 211.1 3.17 6.8 1.6 44%
Roy Oswalt 209.1 3.44 6.7 2.2 48%
  • Friday, April 1: Brett Myers @ Roy Halladay, 1:05 PM ET
    • Myers career vs. PHI: 7 IP, 2.57 ERA, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 HR
    • Halladay career vs. HOU: 16 IP, 1.69 ERA, 14 K, 0 BB, 2 HR
  • Saturday, April 2: Wandy Rodriguez @ Cliff Lee, 7:05 PM ET
    • Rodriguez career vs. PHI: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 20 K, 4 BB, 3 HR
    • Lee career vs. HOU: 8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA, 9 K, 1 BB, 2 HR
  • Sunday, April 3: J.A. Happ @ Roy Oswalt, 1:35 PM ET
    • Happ career vs. PHI: 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 HR
    • Oswalt career vs. HOU: N/A

If you’re interested in information from behind enemy lines, check out Austin’s Astros 290 Blog, a fellow member of ESPN’s Sweet Spot blog network.

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Season Preview: Blogger Roundtable

At long last, the regular season is here. To me, the time between Game 6 of the NLCS and today felt like 17 years — it was excruciatingly long and boring. I thought this day would never come! Hopefully, you are as excited for the start of the 2011 season as I am.

Early in March, I recruited some of my favorite Phillies bloggers to preview the upcoming season as best as they could. Last year’s blogger roundtable was well-received; this year, I aimed to include fewer bloggers to remove the clutter while keeping the same high level of analysis. Below, you can see the participants along with where you can read their work and find them on Twitter.

Name Writing Twitter
Eric Seidman FanGraphsBrotherly Glove @EricSeidman
Corey Seidman Phillies NationBrotherly Glove @CoreySeidman
Matt Swartz Baseball Prospectus @Matt_Swa
Michelle O’Malley NBCChicks Dig the Long Ball @M_OMalley
Michael Baumann Phillies Nation @AtomicRuckus
Paul Boye Phillies Nation @Phrontiersman
Ryan Sommers Chasing Utley @Phylan

1. Given the news about Chase Utley’s tendinitis, what do you think are realistic expectations from the second baseman in 2011?

E. Seidman: As pessimistic as this sounds, fans should expect absolutely nothing from Utley this season, and should treat anything he provides as a bonus. Nobody is 100 percent certain about the diagnosis of his injury, let alone the proper course of treatment, and even if he resorts to surgery there is no guarantee of a complete recovery. I would estimate that he will be back in action sometime around August, but that it will be the Zombie Utley we saw at times last year… you know, the Utley that hits .270/.335/.450. That slash line would still represent an upgrade over Castillo/Barfield/Valdez, which is pretty sad. The most realistic scenario is that Utley plays about 65 games this year and posts a slash line similar to the estimation above. If he can do that, I’ll be thrilled, though I am preparing myself for the worst: that he won’t play at all.

O’Malley: Chase Utley is walking a thin line right now. Either he gets knee surgery now (and I am not at all qualified to say whether he should or not) and has a chance at coming back later in the season and for the playoffs, or he waits until he feels good enough to play, and takes a chance on either getting hurt (and needing surgery) or finishing out the year (and probably getting surgery in the offseason). Realistically I think we see a lot of Luis Castillo/Wilson Valdez/Placido Polanco/whoever the Phillies are most comfortable with at second from day to day, and very, very little Chase Utley in 2011.

Sommers: You wouldn’t know it from how it was covered, but Utley managed to battle through slumps and a power-sapping thumb injury last year to put up another great season. It wasn’t his usual caliber, but  a 130 wRC+ from a second baseman, especially one with defense as good as Utley’s, is something that all 30 teams in the league would take. That, taken together with his .288 BABIP (when Beyond the Boxscore had his xBABIP pegged at .302), was enough assuage any worries I might have had for his 2011.

(Click to enlarge.)

This obviously changed with the press conference about his patellar tendinitis and chondromalacia. The fact that team officials have been so typically tight-lipped about it has left fans and press with only whatever wild speculation they care to engage in, and there’s been no shortage of that. It has also made any kind of projection for Utley’s 2011 impossible. The fact that they’ve not opted for surgery doesn’t really tell us much, since it’s not indicated for his condition most of the time. It’s clear the team is pursuing every last rehab protocol they can come up with, which is encouraging. Since we’re all effectively guessing, I’ll take an optimistic tack and predict a mid-July return for Utley. Since he didn’t seem to have any trouble taking batting practice with the condition, one could hope it won’t cause long term offensive depletion, even if it does hamper his defensive range. So I’ll extend my optimism to his batting line, and guess .280/.385/.485 upon his return. He’ll be worth perhaps 2.5 to 3 wins for the Phils in 2011, in the absolute best case scenario.

2. What does Jimmy Rollins’ future look like? Is he wearing a Phillies uniform after 2011?

Baumann: I’m actually bullish on Rollins this season. He was a 2.3-win player in 2010, while missing about 40 percent of the worst season of his life. Rollins, who turned 32 this offseason, will still be an elite defender and percentage basestealer for years to come. Let’s assume he stays healthy and his BABIP (.251 in 2009 and .246 in 2010) returns to somewhere in the neighborhood of his career average of .290—there’s a lot to be excited about. Rollins, like Ryan Howard, had a different approach to hitting last year, but it actually paid off for J-Roll: a career high in walk rate, a career low in strikeout rate, and for the first time in his career, Rollins walked more than he struck out. The result: an almost-identical wOBA from 2009-10, despite a 49-point drop in SLG. If he keeps his walks up and his strikeouts down, and stays in the lineup, Rollins could return not to the level of his flukish 2007 MVP campaign, but to the 4-5 WAR player he’s been for the rest of his career.

Now, will he be a Phillie after 2011? It depends on how much he costs, and who else wants him. Certainly, the Phillies could allocate some of the $23 million they won’t be paying Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge in 2012 to a Rollins deal, but as age advances, the wisdom of an extension could be debated. Gun to my head, I’d say yes, but I don’t know what the cost or eventual wisdom of such a deal would be.

Boye: The future of Jimmy Rollins probably looks something not unlike Omar Vizquel’s. Vizquel, a good defender even into his early forties, was able to still be useful despite his diminishing bat. It’s becoming more difficult to justify his presence as anything more than a bench player these days given that his ability to play the field at all has faded, but he’s still provided plenty of value in his time. Rollins could follow the same path – through their respective age 31 seasons, their offensive numbers do bear some similarity – assuming he stays healthy. Figuring Rollins to stick around as long as Vizquel is a bit of a stretch, but every team can find use for excellent SS defense, which I expect Rollins to maintain for a few more years.

As for being in Philly beyond this season, yes, I believe he’ll be here.

Swartz: There are only a handful of shortstops capable of playing at the level that Rollins does, and there is a big difference between how those shortstops play and how the rest of shortstops play. Most teams that have competitive teams in large markets have one of those shortstops right now. What team values Rollins more than the Phillies do? They’ll squeeze each other for a while and make threats, but I’d bet they’ll get it done at the price it takes to outbid the Giants or whoever else is involved.

3. How comfortable are you with a starting outfield of Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Ben Francisco?

C. Seidman: Right now, not very. If Ben Francisco and his beautiful connected swing can take that next step most believe he is capable of, “not very” turns to “comfortable.” Victorino has said several times this offseason that he has re-committed himself to getting on base and increasing his weak OBP. Ibanez should put together a similar line to 2011. Francisco is the key; in a perfect world, he slides in to the number five hole and stays there.

Baumann: Not at all, and not for the reasons you might think. I’m actually not too worried about them offensively, particularly in terms of replacing Jayson Werth. Ideally, the Phillies would have platooned at both corner outfield positions—Francisco and Ibanez in left, and Brown and a cheap free agent outfielder who hits lefties well, Marcus Thames, for instance.

But since that’s not in the cards, and because Francisco and Ibanez are both average hitters with pretty big platoon splits, Ibanez could hit in the middle of the order against righties and Francisco could hide, and the reverse against lefties. It’s not ideal, but it’s perfectly satisfactory.

Where I’m going to miss Jayson Werth most is in the field. As a left fielder, Ibanez is not quite as bad as Pat Burrell, but he’s not that great. And despite the Gold Gloves, Victorino actually hasn’t been a great defensive player since moving from right field in 2008.

Sommers: Were we likely to get a full season from Chase Utley, I would be reasonably comfortable, but obviously that’s no longer the case. My ideal scenario, one which likely had no chance from the start, would have been an Ibanez/Francisco platoon in left, Victorino in center, and Domonic Brown the full time starter in right. Francisco posted a .384 wOBA against lefties last year, Ibanez .352 against right-handers, and their career numbers bear out similar talent levels. I’m a little sad that I won’t be able to see the possibilities of a strict platoon protocol for those two realized; it could have been tremendous.

Meanwhile, for all the talk of platooning Brown, curtailing the playing time of your mega-prospect is one of the better ways to make a bust out of him, and he’d never learn how to hit lefties if he were prevented from facing any. Of course, Dom went down with a hamate bone injury in spring training, and my optimal lineup dreams were dashed. You go to bat with the roster you have, not the one you want, and, that being said, the Phillies could do far worse. Francisco, Victorino, and Ibanez all fared well in wRC+ last year, all 7 to 11% above league average, despite  rather maddening offensive droughts from the latter two.

The real worry, I think, is just how defensively ugly this outfield will be. I don’t think I need to say much here about Raul Ibanez’s defense. Ben Francisco doesn’t have a very large sample from which we can evaluate quantitatively, but so far there is no indication that he’s a particularly good defender, and I think most eye tests would agree. Victorino, for all his gold gloves and popular perception, is just not a very good defender in center. He is a classic example of how speed in the field is squandered by poor tracking abilities. Add in the specter of Ross Gload seeing some playing time in the outfield, a possibility repeatedly raised by Charlie Manuel this spring, and you have a real circus in the Citizens Bank Park grass, and not the good kind.

While the Ibanez/Victorino/Francisco configuration could be well above average offensively, the amount of value that they’ll give back in the field is a serious concern. Over the last three years, the Phillies have gotten an average of 9.3 wins per year out of their starting outfielders (by bWAR). If this trio has to play a whole season (which hopefully will not be the case), expect that number to be closer to 7 for 2011.

4. Which of the Phillies’ four aces will have the worst season?

Swartz: The one with the highest BABIP? The difference between the pitchers in skill level is only about half a run or so, while the standard deviation in BABIP has a larger affect on ERA than that. The pitchers with the highest ERA won’t necessarily be the pitcher who pitched the worst at all. I guess I’d bet on Oswalt over Hamels.

O’Malley: Cliff Lee. I’m concerned with his delivery and that he’s putting too much pressure on his back. He spent some time on the bench last year because of some back issues and they’re only going to get worse as he gets older. It will be hard for Halladay to top the year he had last season, but he hasn’t given anyone anything to be concerned about this spring. Hamels is in his prime right now, and as long as he keeps his focus in the right place like he did last season he’s going to be virtually unstoppable as well. Oswalt on a bad day is still better than Kyle Kendrick on a great day. It’ll be a fairly evenly matched season between all five pitchers, I think, but if I had to pick one for the worst based on my gut feeling, it would be Cliff Lee.

Boye: Roy Oswalt seems the logical choice here. For years, he was considered one of the most underrated starters in the league, and his ’05-’07 seasons were really quite good. Now, though, as he approaches his mid-thirties, the effects of aging may start to become a real concern. Though his ERA with the Phillies (1.74) was wonderful, it seems that was more a product of a .221 BABIP and a by-far-career-high strand rate of 86 percent. This was alongside a drop in strikeout rate, and while it’s difficult to infer too much from 80 or so innings of work from a starter, it stands to reason that Oswalt has the most ground to lose on the likes of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee.

5. Are you worried about Roy Oswalt’s back problems?

Baumann: Not really. He’s been phenomenally durable over the course of his career, with at least 30 starts each season since 2003. Of course, as he gets later and later into his 30s, those little niggling injuries might start keeping him out of the lineup, a phenomenon we’re certainly seeing with Chase Utley right now. But I’ll pencil him in for 30-plus starts until he proves he can’t do that.

C. Seidman: Yes, but only because he seems to be. If you delve into his responses to questions, especially the one asked at that hokey 5-starter press conference from the beginning of Spring Training, you can see subtle apprehension from Oswalt. I could see him missing a handful of starts due to injury, and maybe one or two more when the Phillies have a comfortable September lead.

6. Is Joe Blanton still in Phillies pinstripes after July 31?

E. Seidman: Yup. Blanton isn’t going anywhere unless the Phillies are in absolutely dire need of someone to fill in at a specific position that isn’t already plagued with injuries. Otherwise, I see no need to move him, and I believe the Phillies are in agreement. For some reason, fans seem to think of Blanton as this expendable piece, when he would be the #3 starter on practically 2/3 of the teams in the sport. Not only is he not going anywhere, but he is going to have a very good season as well, which will even further the discussion that is one of the best all-around starting rotations in history.

O’Malley: I’m probably the biggest Joe Blanton fan there is, so it’s hard for me to say it, but no. I think if the Phillies find themselves between a rock and a hard place due to injuries, offensive troubles, whatever, they’ll shop Blanton at the trade deadline. I would hate – hate – to see him go, and I’ve been advocating for him as long as he’s been on staff, but I think the club is going to learn from their mistakes last year and pay more attention to their needs outside of starting pitching if necessary. They may need some bats, they may need some life in the bullpen. If they need anything at all, Blanton is probably the first to go in return.

Swartz: Yes. What are the odds that none of the four pitchers have an injury between now and then that gives the Phillies pause?  If they each had only a 16% chance of being injured, there would be a 50% chance that one of them one would be. I hope they are all healthy all year, but that’s not something to have faith in.

7. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson can both become free agents after the season. Do you keep both, neither, or one of them? And if you keep one, which one and why?

Boye: Slam dunk: I keep Madson. He seems to have made the jump to “elite” reliever, and Brad Lidge’s 2012 option is for $12.5 million with a $1.5 million buyout. Paying that much for a relief pitcher is nuts, especially for one who is clearly no longer in his prime. Madson seems in line to make up to $7 million annually in his next deal, assuming he stays in a non-saving role this season, and that’s $5 million saved that can be put toward finding a new starting left fielder when Raul Ibanez also departs after this season. Madson is no slam dunk to be as good as he was in 2010 for years to come, but I sure like his odds better than Lidge, especially at a discount.

O’Malley: I would keep Madson. I’d love to keep Lidge as well, but being a nice guy only gets you so far if you have a different pitching arm related injury every few months. This does not mean I would keep Madson to be the closer, though, by any stretch of the imagination. Say what you will, but his opponents’ batting average is almost thirty points higher in the ninth inning than it is in the seventh and either, and his BABIP is almost forty points higher. He’s allowed more homeruns in the ninth in 90 games than he has in the eighth in 214 games. His ERA in save situations is 4.20, compared to his 2.57 ERA in non-save situations. Lidge may be Charlie Manuel’s closer, but the Phillies are going closer shopping this November. Or at least, they should be.

Sommers: I’m tempted to say keep Madson and let Lidge walk, but the most prudent answer may be to keep neither one. I feel like I’ve been watching a Ryan Madson “endless debate” video for the last two years, mostly on this very blog. As you’ve extensively covered, Madson’s “closing concerns” are just a mess of sensational reporting and cognitive biases. His fastball has averaged 95 miles per hour in 2009, and about 94 miles per hour in 2010, 10-12 miles per hour than a changeup that is widely regarded as one of the best in baseball. That changeup, by the way, had the second best whiff rate in baseball. He’s averaged 8.8 K/9 and 3.6 K/BB in the last 3 years, numbers that peaked in 2010 at 10.9 and 2.2 respectively. Since 2008, of Phillies pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, only Hamels, Halladay, and Oswalt have gotten outs more efficiently than Madson — he has the fourth lowest opponent OBP of that set (.299).

He has the best stuff, he misses the most bats, and he keeps the most men off base of any Phillies reliever. He is without question the best reliever on the Phillies, and certainly one of the best in the league. All of this screams “highest leverage reliever.” With Manuel at the helm, the Phillies are bound to traditional bullpen roles, so that means closer. And yet the fans, media, and general manager seem content to ignore these facts in favor of a flawed, century-old statistic and some rather ridiculous observational anecdotes.

Lidge, for his part, made a nice recovery last year, posting a 137 ERA+ over 45.2 innings pitched, but he continued to struggle with walks, to the tune of a 4.7 BB/9. He benefited substantially from his .250 BABIP over that period, and, in any case, does not begin to stack up to Madson in stuff, health or overall value. The problem with Madson, of course, is that he is about to become more expensive, particularly if management gets wise and dubs him the closer. He is already making an average annual value of $4 million on his current contract, and is not going to re-up at that rate. With any significant number of saves under his belt in 2011, the market for him will be fierce, and could drive his price up to $7 or $8 million per year, which is more than Amaro may be willing to pay, and, frankly, a bit above the threshold of what I’d want my team to shell out for a reliever. With the payroll as high as it is, the Phillies could make better investments with that sort of money than a relief pitcher, as volatile as they can be (even ones as good as Madson). If you’re going to overpay for a reliever, Madson is certainly one to do it for, but I don’t think it would be the optimal move, as much as I want to see him remain a Phillie.


Prior to the news that Lidge would miss about half of the season, I said this:

It’s easy to gravitate towards the Keep-Madson-and-cut-Lidge camp, but this isn’t as cut and dried. The issue is if Madson insists on being a closer. If that’s the case, then you buy out Lidge’s option after the year, and make sure that Madson signs an extension during the season. If Madson is okay with being the setup man, what I’d like to see is Lidge’s option be bought out, but for the team to negotiate his return at a lesser price. At $12.5 million, Lidge isn’t very valuable. But if he agrees to a massive pay cut and is willing to sign a 2-yr, $6 million deal? I think I’d go for that. But again, if Madson “demands” to close, the decision is much more straightforward, as he is younger and the far superior pitcher.

With the news that Lidge will miss half of the season, my answer can be reduced to simply: sign Madson, part ways with Lidge unless he’s willing to accept some deal with a very low base that oozes incentives.

8. How do you feel about the rest of the Phillies’ bullpen going into 2011?

Baumann: I think it’ll be fine, but I also think they’re approaching it wrong. I think Lidge will ride the ragged edge, but ultimately be fine. I think Madson, even at age 30, continues to improve. Apart from those two, I would have liked to see the Phillies hand the keys to the kingdom over to the youngsters. Contreras and Romero are fine, and Baez won’t be around much longer, but they’re all average at best. I’d rather have my “average” come from unknown quantities like Justin De Fratus, Mike Stutes, Scott Mathieson, Vance Worley, and Antonio Bastardo. The Phillies have no shortage of potential middle relievers in the high minors, and with a good offense and great starting pitching ahead of them, and a good defensive team behind them, guys like that are going to succeed now, if ever.

C. Seidman: Comfortable. Many think it is a weakness, but I don’t. The starters will eat a ton of innings. Realistically, the bullpen may pitch 9 total innings each time through the rotation, with 6-7 of them being Contreras and Madson. The light workload will help. Danys Baez can only improve. I anticipate strong LOOGY numbers from Romero.

Boye: It’s fine. Losing Chad Durbin’s ability to go more than one inning effectively is something that might be missed if Kyle Kendrick is asked to do the same this season, but I have no grave concerns about anyone else. They have their flaws, sure, but assuming their workloads are, in fact, limited with the presence of this starting rotation, my worries are limited. Sure Contreras may be 57, Lidge’s velocity and command are whittling, Romero can’t stop walking people and Danys Baez exists, but something still tells me things could be a lot worse. That’s not to say I’ll be Mariano Rivera-like comfortable, but the pins and needles will be dull.

E. Seidman:

Sommers: It varies depending on who you ask, but the others will probably be Romero, Contreras, Bastardo, Kendrick, Herndon, and Baez. There were some rumblings today that Michael Stutes might be a dark horse in the mix, but considering that it would require some 40-man maneuvering, I’ll ignore that for now. While I would rather have seen Baez released and possibly launched into space in a sealed S.S. Botany Bay type of deal, I actually find this pen to be acceptable, if it were used optimally.

This means that Romero can’t face 74 right-handed batters again, as he did in 2010. In fact, it would be preferable if he didn’t face any at all, although I suppose a few over the course of the season would be inevitable. It means that Baez should be banished to mop-up duty only, and Kendrick restricted to righties (who’ve hit just .258/.303/.397 against him in his career) in low to medium leverage situations. It means Contreras should log a lot of innings if he stays healthy, and preferably most of the high leverage situations that aren’t pitched by Ryan Madson.

I don’t exactly mean to say that Manuel should stand around in the dugout with an iPad displaying leverage and run expectancy tables (although, now that I think about it . . .), but he has the opportunity, especially considering the starting rotation, to squeeze a lot of value out of a group that isn’t exactly awe-inspiring if he just breaks some tired traditions and optimizes their use. Unfortunately, it’s almost certain he will stick with traditional bullpen rules. Whether this will be the difference between a sub-par pen and an effective one remains to be seen, but I suspect that it might.

9. Do you think the Phillies did an adequate job with the bench, or do you think they could have done more?

Swartz: I would have liked a right-handed hitter who could hit the ball out of the park, but it’s tough to criticize putting all of their resources towards signing an ace below his market price.

E. Seidman: Schneider as a backup catcher is solid, and Gload is a great pinch-hitter. Wilson Valdez is perfectly fine as the jack-of-all-positions player. John Mayberry deserves a shot and can spell Victorino in center field at times. Those last two spots are iffy, but I’d rather the team take a flier on Josh Barfield than spend millions of dollars on formerly good players who won’t get more than 100 PA. Overall, the bench is fine. It’s not incredibly deep with talent, but it has players who do certain things very well. The bench is built to help a team with healthy starters, but not make up for lost production if those starters go down.

C. Seidman: They should have done more, and I suspect they will at some point before the deadline. That being said, I love the versatility that Delwyn Young brings and pray that he makes the team. I am still not sold whatsoever on John Mayberry. That is the spot that needs to be productive. If Mayberry makes the spot productive, I’d gladly eat crow.

. . .


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In the comments below, feel free to leave your own replies to the questions, or comment on the answers left by the seven bloggers that participated in this roundtable. Thanks Eric, Corey, Matt, Michelle, Paul, Michael, and Ryan for participating! Please check out their blogs and follow them on Twitter, they’re a big reason why the Phillies fan community is so great. Speaking of which, check out this squaretable with some more pillars of the Phillies blogosphere.