Myself, Paul Boye, and Ryan Sommers have covered his season in exhaustive detail, so I won’t bother you with another treatise on the subject. However, I would like to point out some stats that indicate to me that Halladay’s season shouldn’t cause worry.

• Strikeout rate as a percentage of batters faced
• 2012: 19.7%
• Career: 18.7%
• Note: His strikeout rate had been higher in the last four seasons, two with the Blue Jays and two with the Phillies. In 2003, when Halladay won his first Cy Young award, his strikeout rate was 19.1%, however.
• Walk rate as a percentage of batters faced
• 2012: 4.6%
• Career: 5.0%
• Note: Converse to his strikeout rate, Halladay is walking more batters than he had in the previous four seasons, but he still has a K-BB ratio in excess of four-to-one. Only 17 qualified starting pitchers have an equal or better ratio (including three of his teammates).
• Batting average on balls in play.
• 2012: .290
• Career: .292
• Note: His BABIP is interesting. This year, his BABIP on ground balls and line drives are .296 and .677, respectively, compared to .202 and .749 over his career. It’s a very small sample, so there’s a ton of variance here. Still, it’s interesting and something to monitor going forward. At the very least, we know he isn’t getting hit hard.
• Home run rate as a percentage of fly balls induced
• 2012: 7.6%
• Career: 9.7%
• Note: His overall fly ball rate is also in line with his career average (30%, 26%).
• ERA/xFIP/SIERA
• 2012: 3.58/3.30/3.37
• Career: 3.24/3.16/3.26
• Note: Rather self-explanatory. xFIP is an ERA retrodictor that uses a pitcher’s fly ball rate, while SIERA accounts for the interaction between a pitcher’s batted ball profile and his strikeout and walk rates.

Basically, if you’re unhappy with Halladay’s performance thus far, then you’re unhappy with his career to date. No, he isn’t as dominant as he was during the last two years, but they are at the far right of the bell curve. His 2012 performance is right in the middle of his Hall of Fame bell curve, and that’s plenty good enough atop the starting rotation.

Roy Halladay has given up 5 runs or more in a start 77 times in his career. It'll happen again.

— Sky Kalkman (@Sky_Kalkman) May 23, 2012

Carlos Ruiz: I wonder that you will still be calling balls, Signior Cederstrom: nobody marks you.
Gary Cederstrom: What, my dear Catcher Disdain! Are you yet living?
Ruiz: Is it possible disdain should die while he hath such meet food to feed it as Signior Cederstrom? Srikedom itself must convert to balldom, if you come in his presence.
Cederstrom: Then is strikedom a turncoat. But it is certain I am loved of all catchers, only you excepted: and I would I could find in my heart that I had not a hard heart; for, truly, I love none.
Ruiz: A dear happiness to catchers: they would else have been troubled with a pernicious umpire. I thank God and my cold blood, I am of your humour for that: I had rather hear my dog bark at a crow than an umpire swear he saw a strike.
Cederstrom: God keep your catchership still in that mind! So some umpire or other shall ‘scape a predestinate scratched face.
Ruiz: Scratching could not make it worse, an ’twere such a face as yours were.
Cederstrom: Well, you are a rare parrot-teacher.
Ruiz: A bird of my strike zone judgment is better than a beast of yours.
Cederstrom: I would my horse had the speed of your tongue, and so good a continuer. But keep your way, i’ God’s name; I eject thee.
Ruiz: You always end with a jade’s trick: I know you of old.

As a result, we are discontinuing the game threads and Cover It Live chats until further notice.  However, we want your feedback on what you liked and didn’t like about the game threads. What would get you to participate on a regular basis? Feel free to leave feedback on anything else about the blog as well. We can’t improve without your constructive criticism.

But tonight has its own big news–Jimmy Rollins had a baby last night, so he won’t be in the lineup tonight while doctors struggle to solve that little bit of procreational weirdness. No doubt the Phillies will shoot the baby full of cortisone and then shoo Bob Brookover out of the hospital like a drunken recluse chasing the neighbors’ kids out of his backyard. The resulting lineup shuffling moves Freddy Galvis over to short and gives Mike Fontenot his first start with the Phillies. Given how much folks around here seem to like dudes with French last names and uniform numbers ending in 8, Fontenot should do fine.

Lineups

Washington

• Steve Lombardozzi, LF (.360 wOBA)
• Bryce Harper, RF (.332)
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (.322)
• Adam LaRoche, 1B (.408)
• Ian Desmond, SS (.325)
• Danny Espinosa, 2B (.280)
• Rick Ankiel, CF (.276)
• Jesus Flores, C (.256)
• Gio Gonzalez, P

Phillies

• The God of War, Juan Pierre, LF (.323)
• Placido Polanco, 3B (.296)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.327)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.360)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.426)
• John Mayberry, 1B (.270)
• Freddy Galvis, SS (.297)
• Mike Fontenot, 2B (.623)
• Kyle Kendrick, P

As the saying goes, a leopard cannot change its spots. The Phillies, based on who made the 25-man roster out of spring training, were never going to have an offensive that exemplified great plate discipline. Nevertheless, it has been frustrating at times to watch them hit with easy-to-get runs on the bases, only to pop-up weakly or go down swinging on three strikes. In particular, one of the most frequent complaints I have seen has been the Phillies’ propensity to swing at the first pitch.

Saturday’s game against the Boston Red Sox is a good recent example. In the bottom of the eighth, Jimmy Rollins had brought the score to 7-5 with an RBI infield single against Alfredo Aceves. Rollins then stole second base and Aceves walked John Mayberry on four pitches. Shane Victorino stepped to the plate with the bases loaded and a chance to be a hero, if he could find a spot for a single to the outfield. Aceves was laboring and showed a lack of control, so it might have been a good idea to take the first pitch. Most hitters would have done that, but Victorino swung at the first pitch and popped it up in the infield to end the inning.

Here is one example of many afterwards on Twitter:

That's the epitome of dumb baseball by Victorino. Bases are loaded after a walk and you swing at first pitch.#Phillies

— Michael Radano (@MichaelRadano) May 20, 2012

(I don’t mean to single out Mr. Radano, by the way. There are plenty more examples here.)

The Phillies see the sixth-fewest first-pitch strikes in all of baseball (58 percent). Victorino sees the fewest on the team (54.6 percent) and the 44th fewest among 175 qualified players. However, over his career (393 PA), Victorino has a .905 OPS on the first pitch, which is much greater than his .779 career average. Obviously, he’s been doing something right.

The average player sees a fastball on the first pitch 57 percent of the time. This year, Victorino has seen them at a 65 percent clip, the 49th-highest rate out of 178 players*. Victorino likes fastballs: since 2009, he has a .374 wOBA against first-pitch fastballs. The following heat maps show where they’ve tended to cluster:

*Data comes from a different source, which explains the disparity in qualified players.

Additionally, Aceves had thrown fastballs 61 percent of the time, which is at about the league average among relief pitchers. Batters posted a sub-.300 wOBA against his first-pitch fastballs. Here’s where they’ve typically been:

The bases were also loaded and Aceves just walked Mayberry on four pitches. The odds of Aceves throwing a fastball over the plate were quite good, about as good as they’d ever be, save if Victorino had managed to get to 3-0. As baseball is a mixed strategy game, hitters are always trying to predict (imperfectly) what the pitcher will throw. As players fall into patterns and the rest of the league gains of knowledge of those patterns, adjustments will be made. For instance, if Victorino ends up swinging at a significantly larger portion of first pitches this year, he will get even less to hit on the first pitch later in the season and into next year. Likewise, if Aceves starts throwing more sliders on the first pitch, then hitters like Victorino will be less likely to assume a fastball is coming.

This was the end result:

The key word is “result”. When analyzing the validity of a strategy, the result is completely meaningless. In Blackjack, I can hit with 20. It’s a very stupid idea, because the only cards that don’t ruin me are aces. If I hit and happen to spike an ace anyway, it doesn’t mean hitting on 20 was therefore smart.

Victorino swung at the first pitch (which might have been a few inches further inside than he anticipated), popped up, and ended the rally. It was certainly frustrating to watch, but Victorino’s strategy cannot be faulted. Victorino himself did not fault the strategy:

Damn right. I would swing at that every single time. He just beat me. I went up there looking for a cutter. I faced him in spring training and went up there looking first-pitch cutter*. I got the pitch I wanted and he just beat me. I tip my hat. He got me. It is what it is. I’m not going to sit here and question what I did.

*For clarification: my data source lumps cutters in with all fastballs.

This is just one example; there are plenty more throughout the first 42 games. Not all of them are justified, but some are. One cannot make a blanket statement such as “swinging at the first pitch is always bad.” The concept, rather, is fluid — you have to weigh each situation individually according to its unique set of variables.

The Phillies as a team have the third-lowest OPS in the National League when swinging at the first pitch. Victorino is not part of the problem, however.

The biggest offender is Rollins, who has swung at 21 first pitches to the tune of a .211 OPS. Galvis and Polanco have also not had the greatest fortune swinging at the first pitch. Just because Rollins has performed so poorly, though, doesn’t mean that he should altogether stop swinging at the first pitch. Part of the fun in being a fan is being emotionally invested in each and every pitch, but when the dust settles, let’s not fault the players’ strategies without giving them due diligence.

Games 33-40 Recap

• Record: 7-1
• RS: 49; RA: 34
• Notes: Vance Worley hit the 15-day DL, but avoided surgery. Joe Savery was recalled.
• Ruiz hit .560/.621/.840 in these eight games, with two stolen bases.

• And speaking of Chooch

How about this Ruiz fellow, eh? A .371/.415/.621 slash on the season to date puts him among the top hitters in baseball. Right now, he’s even outslugging Ryan Braun and David Ortiz. Is he going to stay on this level all year? Almost certainly not. His .360 BABIP figures to take a couple steps down, but even when it does, he’ll be posting a line that’s more than respectable for as good a defensive catcher as he is, to boot.Ruiz is doing big time damage on pitches over the heart of the plate – as you’d want every hitter to do – but is also feasting on pitches in the upper half of the zone. A popular talking point on Chooch in those handy-dandy “scouting report” broadcast graphics is that he loves to hit the fastball. It’s easy to say that about the majority of Major Leaguers, but it really has been particularly true of Ruiz to date. Carlos has been thrown 244 fastballs in 2012, of which he has only swung on and missed four times. He’s batting .446 with a 1.222 OPS when he puts a fastball in play.

There are a lot of .gifs, so don’t click through unless your browser can handle it.

The Mike Fontenot Misplay

Marlon Byrd‘s Groundout

In Slow Motion

Bobby Valentine Pleading His Case

The Umpire Loses His Gum, but Not His Cool

Valentine Places A Hex on Gary Darling

Calling the Red Sox a “glass cannon” refers to their wholly offensive approach — they rank second in the American League, averaging 5.4 runs per game, and they also rank second-last with 5.1 runs allowed per game. As a result, they play a lot of high-scoring games, which couldn’t be any more the opposite for the Phillies. Although the offense has come alive recently, they have scored three or fewer runs in 18 of 39 games. Tonight’s pitching match-up epitomizes the two teams completely: reliever-turned-starter Daniel Bard (4.91 xFIP) opposes Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels (2.89).

Lineups

Red Sox

• Mike Aviles, SS (.320 wOBA)
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.377)
• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (.331)
• Cody Ross, RF (.355)
• Will Middlebrooks, 3B (.370)
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (.350)
• Daniel Nava, LF (.556)
• Marlon Byrd, CF (.263)
• Daniel Bard, P

Phillies

• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.269)
• Juan Pierre, LF (.348)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.318)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.342)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.432)
• Ty Wigginton, 3B (.318)
• John Mayberry, 1B (.252)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (.278)
• Cole Hamels, P

Here’s how that press release should have read: “Bob Davidson is going to sit out a game because he’s incapable of behaving like an adult. Charlie Manuel is going to sit out a game because Major League Baseball would rather we all just chose to ignore the impropriety of its employees’ actions rather than criticizing them honestly.”

Remember, this Crash Bag is not possible without your questions, so send them to crashbaumann@gmail.com or via Twitter with the hashtag #crashbag. We’re also soliciting questions for Twitter Q and A for this weekend’s podcast, so if you want your questions answered on the Crash Pod, perhaps by someone who’s capable of giving an opinion in less than 600 words, send those in with the hashtag #crashburn.

Let’s roll.

@TheMuzz34: “I would like to hear everyone’s thoughts on jimmy moving forward- I had high hopes but he just looks worn down…”

I’m going to see Battleship this weekend, most likely by myself. It never occurred to me that this movie would be any good, but I’m a massive Peter Berg fan. Friday Night Lights is one of my favorite movies, and when my attempt at the Great American Novel is adapted into a movie, I want Berg to direct it. I love his work. So when he was linked to this $200 million pastiche of blue lens filters and terrible actors, I was optimistic. And then I saw the trailer, and despaired. There are two possibilities for a movie capable of creating this trailer: the first is that Berg took charge of this film on a bet, and is in the process of executing a perfect long-con, in which he drops trou and wiggles his gentleman-parts at Michael Bay, one-upping the master of the explosions-over-substance summer blockbuster while simultaneously thumbing his nose at a form of cinema he considers beneath him. Ideally, Battleship is the self-aware summer blockbuster, the movie that delivers thrills, explosions, and scantily-clad women while acknowledging that it is junk food, and sharing a wink and a chuckle with the audience at its own expense. The pinnacle of this genre is Independence Day, which is, incidentally, my favorite movie of all time.

The second is that a man whose work I admire immensely mails in a snow shovel’s worth of cat vomit.

That’s kind of what it’s like to watch Jimmy Rollins, whom I love more than any other Phillies player of my lifetime, drag out a .232/.290/.290 slash line with all the grace of a dog that’s lost both its hind legs to cancer. At age 33, he’s probably never going to win another MVP award, but he’s still playing good defense, and we’re still too early on in the season to give up on anyone. So the answer is somewhere in the middle: he might be a little worn down, but I’d put money on him picking up the pace before too long and clocking in a full-season OPS somewhere in the neighborhood of .700. That’s not great, particularly for a leadoff hitter, but it’s just fine for a good defensive shortstop.

@ileakoil: “Who is that random Asian guy that’s always shown just hanging out in the Phillies dugout?”

That’s Vance Worley. He came up last year and has been a fixture in the Phillies’ rotation ever since. He’s a fun dude and quite a good pitcher. I think you’d like him.

“and no, I don’t mean Vance Worley.  ”

Oh. Well that’s a tougher question. I asked Pat Gallen, the Phillies beat reporter for ESPN 97.5 The Fanatic, and editor of Phillies Nation. Pat, by the way, holds the dual honor of being both the nicest and most attractive man in Philly sports media. He also tells me that the man you seek is Phillies assistant trainer Dong Lien. So there you go. Thanks, Pat.

@Billy_Yeager: “If smooth Freddy plays all season, does he have a chance at “snagging” a gold glove? P.s. I love you.”

I love you too, Bill. But you knew that already. It’s too early for the advanced stats to say anything conclusive about Galvis at second base, but scouts have been raving about his glove throughout his time in the minors, and he certainly looks good.

Unfortunately, being a good fielder has nothing to do with winning a Gold Glove. The best way to win a Gold Glove is to have won one before. The second-best way is to be a really good hitter, and the third is to make a bunch of flashy plays. Some guys do all those things, win the Gold Glove, and are actually good fielders, like Adrian Beltre, Troy Tulowitzki, and Adrian Gonzalez. Sometimes, most notably in the case of Chase Utley, you can do all those things, be the best defensive player at your position, and not get a sniff of Gold Glove mention.

But Galvis doesn’t have a longstanding track record, and if he doesn’t OPS at least .600, not only will he not hit well enough to get the voters’ attention, he might not stay in the lineup. So while I think Galvis is a top-notch defensive second baseman, I’d bet heavily against his winning the Gold Glove.

@TheBridgerBowl: “who makes the all time phillies team at each position and rotation? Had to be around 3 seasons min.”

(cracks knuckles)

Okay, for this, I’m going all the way back to 1883 with this one, but I’ll be considering later players with more weight than players from father back, because the quality of play now is much better than it was in the past, thanks to improvements in scouting, medicine, and race relations, among other things. Also, for simplicity’s sake, I’m only counting players’ contributions with the Phillies, because no one wants me to say Joe Morgan was the best Phillies second baseman of all time. So I’ve listed my all-time Phillies best at each position.

Catcher: Darren Daulton (ask me again at the end of the season, and I might say Carlos Ruiz)
First Base: Ryan Howard (John Kruk did as much in less time, but Howard gets credit for his 2006 season, plus he’ll add more value as time goes on, plus first base is probably the weakest position for the Phillies)
Second Base: Chase Utley (and it’s even less close than you think)
Third Base: Mike Schmidt (Scott Rolen actually had similar rate stats, but not for as long, and in a much more hitter-friendly environment)
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins (Larry Bowa and Granny Hamner were both good, but Rollins’ bat puts him almost as far ahead of them as Utley is ahead of Tony Taylor)
Left Field: Sliding Billy Hamilton (35.7 rWAR in 6 seasons in Philly, 58.2 rWAR in 13 seasons for Ed Delahanty. Proof positive that Bill wrote about the wrong Hall of Fame outfielder.)
Center Field: Richie Ashburn (no discussion needed)
Right Field: Bobby Abreu (the fans may have hated him, but I’d put his offensive production up against any Phillies player since Mike Schmidt)
Pitchers: Robin Roberts, Steve Carlton, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Curt Schilling, Cole Hamels. One Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee finish three full seasons (our arbitrary cutoff), I’d have no problem including one or both of them over Schilling and/or Hamels (if he doesn’t re-sign). Apologies to Jim Bunning.

What I take from this list is that most of the best players in Phillies history are playing right now. And most of the rest either played for the team that won the pennant in 1993 or the team that lost 97 games in 2000. In short, even now, it’s never been better to be a Phillies fan.

@thomeshomies: “If Chooch is to start the All-Star Game, he’s going to need a good slogan. I task you, @atomicruckus, with creating that slogan.”

I’ve never been asked a more important question in my life. Never. And to be honest, I’m at a loss.

What we need here is a slogan that at once captures the playfulness of a man who’s shaped like the Android mascot and at the same time excels at baseball with the same kind of intimidating detachment that makes Roy Halladay so great. It’s different from the detachment of Cliff Lee, who just can’t be bothered to care, but Chooch of late, has taken on Halladay’s attitude of the opponent being an inconvenience to the perfect brand of baseball he intends to play.

I admire the elegant simplicity of the “Vote4Chooch” Twitter campaign, but we probably want something a little more inspiring. Maybe “Carlos Ruiz: Like other catchers, only funnier and better at baseball.” Or we could have a campaign of panhandlers begging for money and All-Star votes–the “Mooch For Chooch” campaign, as it were. Or “Catch Panamania!” Actually, I really do like the “Catch Panamania!” slogan, or at least I would have if not for the one I’d go with:

“Vote Ruiz: Because I’m Sick to the Sight of Yadier Effing Molina.”

@dmc0603: “who do you expect to regress to the mean (in a good/bad way)? what phillies will likely keep up their current stats?”

I hate to be the buzzkill, but there’s no way Carlos Ruiz puts up a .432 wOBA for the rest of the season. He’s coming down some. Another .400 OBP season isn’t out of the question, and at this point, it’s possible that he hits 15 or 20 home runs, but he’s not going to post a 1.000 OPS. It’d also expect Juan Pierre not to have a .388 OBP, because his BABIP right now is about 60 points above his career average at a time when he’s never had less bat speed and less foot speed. Likewise Laynce Nix, when he returns from injury. He’s hitting more line drives than ever, which is good, but his BABIP is 100 points above his career average.

The good news is that apart from those three guys, just about everyone else is due to pick up the pace some. Neither Shane Victorino nor Hunter Pence is as good as last year’s production suggests, but neither is the kind of guy who posts a full-season OBP around .300, either. Expect both of them to pick it up some. And as I said above, Jimmy Rollins isn’t the same player he was five years ago, but there’s no way he’s this bad now. I don’t know if we can expect Placido Polanco and Freddy Galvis to hit much better than they are right now. I think a  lot of really good defense and a lot of soft ground balls are in the cards for those two.

As for the pitchers, it’s mostly about getting healthy. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are pitching really well, even if they haven’t been getting wins, but that will change. Otherwise, maybe Blanton and Bastardo cool off some? I think there’s a lot of unsustainable weirdness–good and bad–going on with the offense, but the pitching is more or less where it should be.

@Wild_Phils: “so say worley is out for the season, do we go kendrick, oswalt, baby ace, or some kind of trade?”

Well, there’s this Oswalt weirdness, but based on nothing at all, I’d be surprised if he came back to the Phillies. Just a hunch. Also, to be clear, this question came in before Worley’s MRI came back clean (meaning he has no elbow at all, if I understand correctly). But let’s assume the worst. My understanding is that Trevor May (who’s the closest thing the Phillies have to a “baby ace”) is nowhere near major-league ready, so the smart money is on Kendrick as the No. 5 starter until Worley comes back, whether that’s by Memorial Day or Armageddon.

The one potentially interesting option is Scott Elarton. The Phillies famously took a flyer on Elarton this spring training, and he pitched well, despite not having pitched in the majors since 2008 and not having pitched effectively in the majors since 2000, when his 4.81 ERA translated to a 103 ERA+, which gives me a headache to think about. Nevertheless, Elarton is 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA in eight starts for the Iron Pigs right now, which makes one wonder if he might be a suitable No. 5 starter. Of course, that’s thanks to a .237 BABIP and in spite of a K/BB ratio of 1.71, which makes one wonder if he’d get lit up like the The Colony at the end of the Battlestar Galactica finale, or whether his interactions with major league hitters would resemble something more mundane, like the Fairchild Air Force Base disaster.

@SoMuchForPathos: “What are the major role players on the Phillies going to be doing in ten years?”

This is my favorite part of any movie, the epilogue, where you find out what happened to all your favorite characters after the movie ended. So as of 2022, what will the following Phillies players be doing? Here’s my guess.

• Carlos Ruiz: Running a camp for underprivileged inner-city kids in Miami.
• Ryan Howard: I have no idea, but I bet the sun will be shining and he’ll be having the time of his life.
• Chase Utley: Managing a combination pet rescue and vineyard from his palatial Spanish Colonial Revival-style mansion in Northern California.
• Jimmy Rollins: Managing in the major leagues.
• Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence: Sitting on the hood of Pence’s Jeep Wrangler on the beach in Monterrey, smoking a bowl and talking about how funny Napoleon Dynamite was.
• Vance Worley, Cole Hamels, and Antonio Bastardo: Probably pitching in the majors, still. Hamels hit Joey Pankake in the back in the former No. 1 overeall pick’s first major-league at-bat in 2016.
• Cliff Lee: Calling Phillies games on CSN alongside Scott Franzke following the tragic incident in which Tom McCarthy strangled Chris Wheeler and Gary Matthews to death during the 2016 season.
• Roy Halladay: Rumored to be living on an island off the coast of Argentina where he hunts man, the most dangerous game.
• Juan Pierre: Don’t know. Probably bunting and getting thrown out trying to steal somewhere.
• Placido Polanco: Law school.
• Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Papelbon: Missing after having spent the summer of 2018 vacationing on Roy Halladay’s island off the coast of Argentina.
• Joe Blanton: Under the hood of a 1971 Chevy Nova he and I are fixing up together. At night we head down to the local bar and reminisce about the good old days over beers.
• John Mayberry, Jr.: Taking scuba diving lessons.
• Ty Wigginton: Head baseball coach at his alma mater, UNC-Asheville, the only Division I baseball team that plays in Birkenstocks.

I think that’s a pretty solid sample.

Thanks for writing in, everyone. Enjoy the weekend, write in for the podcast, and remember, the policy is that if you see a Crashburn Alley writer out at a bar, you have to buy us a beer.

2012 has been an otherwise disappointing offensive season for the Phillies, but Ruiz has been the rock of the lineup, prompting manager Charlie Manuel to move him from the #7 spot, where he had been in 19 of his first 20 starts, to #5 where he’s been in each of his last three starts.

Despite leading the team with nine homers and 27 RBI, Hunter Pence has been lackluster thus far. His .342 wOBA is still above-average, but when he isn’t hitting home runs, he isn’t doing much of anything at all. He has just seven doubles and one triple, and his .253 batting average and .301 on-base percentage echo that. As the team’s best hitter typically bats cleanup, fans have been clamoring for Pence to hit third and Ruiz to hit in the cleanup spot to salvage more run-scoring opportunities.

Generally speaking, though, the effect of an “ideal” batting order is vastly overstated when it comes to scoring more runs. To illustrate this, I used the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis page and ZiPS rest-of-season projections. Here were the results:

Most Optimal Lineup

4.22 runs per game: Ruiz-Victorino-Polanco-Pence-Rollins-Galvis-Wigginton-Pitcher-Pierre

Suggested Lineup (Ruiz cleanup)

4.03 runs per game: Rollins-Pierre-Pence-Ruiz-Victorino-Wigginton-Polanco-Galvis-Pitcher

Least Optimal Lineup

3.75 runs per game: Galvis-Pitcher-Victorino-Pierre-Wigginton-Polanco-Rollins-Ruiz-Pence

Additionally, the difference between a lineup where everything else is the same except the 3-4-5 is Pence-Ruiz-Victorino (4.03) instead of Victorino-Pence-Ruiz (4.06) is about 0.03 runs, or fewer than four runs over the remaining 123 games. Ten runs roughly equates to one win, so we’re talking about less than one-half of one win over the next 123 games based on ZiPS’ projections, found on FanGraphs.

Fans and talking heads tend to make lineup construction out to be a much, much bigger deal than it actually is. The key to a good lineup is simply getting your best players up to the plate as much as possible, and taking advantage of platoon match-ups when possible. The Phillies haven’t done a whole lot of the former, as Jimmy Rollins and his .269 wOBA have led off in 19 of 39 games, Placido Polanco (.298) has hit second in 22 games, and Rollins has also been slotted in the #3 spot 19 times. If we’re splitting hairs, Ruiz should actually bat first in the lineup, since he’s been the best hitter.

In the long run, it doesn’t make a lot of difference as the true key to lineup construction is personnel. Have a look at the 2007 Phillies’ roster which averaged 5.5 runs per game (the league average was 4.7). Charlie Manuel could have thrown names in a hat and picked out a lineup that would score 5.5 runs per game. With this roster, you’re looking at a league-average offense until Chase Utley and Ryan Howard return, and that’s not going to change whether Ruiz is hitting first, fourth, or sixth.