As regular readers of this blog are no doubt aware, Hamels was written off after a disappointing ’09 season in which his ERA ballooned to 4.32. His ineffectiveness cost the Phillies Game 3 of the World Series and Phillies fans were wondering if the young lefty may have received a bit too much hype after helping lead the Phillies to a World Series championship, their first since 1980. Everything he did was scrutinized, every word he uttered dissected.

We found out that much of what ailed Cole last season was entirely out of his control, namely the results of batted balls. His .325 BABIP was tenth-highest in the NL among starters with at least 100 innings of work. Going off of only what was in his control — strikeouts, walks, and ground/fly balls — Hamels still had the 20th-best SIERA in all of Major League Baseball.

The stat-savvy among us called for a rebound for Hamels, but he has exceeded even those expectations. After adding a cut fastball and tacking on two MPH of velocity on his four-seam fastball, Hamels bolstered his strikeout rate to an average of over one per inning and slightly increased his rate of inducing ground balls. Per FanGraphs’ pitch-type linear weights, all of Hamels’ pitches have been above-average.

The results have been phenomenal but, unfortunately, he does not have the sparkling won-lost record to earn him widespread praise and potential Cy Young votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Hamels’ 8-10 record is a testament to the Phillies’ futile offense, not to poor performances on his part. Using support-neutral wins and losses from Baseball Prospectus, his winning percentage jumps from .444 (eight wins out of 18 decisions) to .560 (15 wins in 27 decisions; it assigns a win or a loss to every start, leaving out no-decisions), essentially a three-game jump.

How does Hamels stack up against the rest of the competition? I have identified seven other pitchers likely to get widespread attention for the award. Of course, there are many others deserving of mention including Rookie of the Year candidate Jaime Garcia, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, and even Roy Oswalt.

As mentioned, it’s impossible to argue that Hamels is more worthy of the award than Halladay and Wainwright for that matter as well. But Hamels’ numbers are almost duplicates of Mat Latos‘ and he’s pitched 20 more innings. Hamels and Josh Johnson are a wash.

The debate becomes a bit tricky with Jimenez, Hudson, and Carpenter. With Jimenez, do you weigh his most recent 13 starts (4.55 ERA) less than his first 14 starts (1.15 ERA)? If so, he is a legit top-five candidate. After all, most of us thought he was going to do match Bob Gibson the way he pitched in the first half.

With Hudson and Carpenter, the debate becomes more philosophical. Dave Cameron touched on this at FanGraphs last week:

[Defense-independent pitching statistics were] never designed to be a backward-looking metric designed to tell us what actually did happen. And there’s a decent argument to be made that the Cy Young award should be awarded based on what did happen, not on what should have happened or what will happen in the future.

Hudson and Carpenter have clearly been very fortunate on batted balls. In fact, most Cy Young candidates every year will be very fortunate BABIP-wise. Hudson has the second-lowest BABIP in the league (.244); Latos is fourth, Jimenez and Wainwright seventh and eighth respectively. Carpenter’s .280 BABIP is still flukishly low. On the SIERA leaderboard, you have to go to around #30-40 to find Hudson and Carp. Voters with a Sabermetric bent are likely to leave the two off for this reason. The luddites of the BBWAA will look at Hudson’s 2.24 ERA and wonder how he can possibly be left off anyone’s ballot.

Sabermetrically, Hamels is arguably the third-best on the list at the moment. A realistic Sabermetric top-five could go: Halladay, Wainwright, Hamels, Johnson, Latos. With a month left in the season, a lot may change. But for now, it’s nice to realize that the Phillies have two top-three Cy Young candidates in their starting rotation. Given Hamels’ fall from grace and the Cliff Lee trade, the phrase “the Phillies have two top-three Cy Young candidates in their starting rotation” was never expected to be uttered in September 2010.

Howard missed about three weeks’ worth of time dealing with a left ankle sprain. Since coming back, he has been wearing a brace, something he admits limits his mobility and flexibility. That could explain his offensive woes. Howard’s power has been noticeably absent, as this spray chart displays, via Texas Leaguers:

Compare the batted ball data before and after Howard’s injury:

Howard has seen a marked decrease in outfield fly balls and a subsequent marked increase in infield fly balls. This is a very small sample size — just 19 batted balls — but it confirms what we’ve been seeing so far since Howard was activated: he’s had no power whatsoever. Additionally, Howard has not been pulling the ball to the outfield. Compare the spray chart above (post-injury) to the one below (pre-injury):

Unfortunately, I don’t have a subscription to MLB.tv so I can’t check out his mechanics. However, I would wager that even a brief inspection would reveal a noticeable mechanical difference in the lower half of Howard’s body as he loads up to swing. Howard puts his weight on his left (back) ankle before the transfer and that just so happens to be the ankle he injured.

Howard was the Phillies’ second-most valuable hitter in terms of VORP. He is currently setting career lows in on-base percentage (tied with 2008 at .339), slugging percentage, ISO, and wOBA. Additionally, his pace for 1.6 WAR would be by far his lowest since becoming a regular in 2005. While you can’t pin all or even most of the team’s offensive woes on Howard, he is a big part of any success they have on that end. Getting him 100% healthy and mechanically sound is vital as they fight for a playoff berth. It may be necessary to put Howard back on the disabled list to give him more time to rest his ankle. If that’s the case, so be it. Mike Sweeney at 85% health can out-produce Howard at 60%.

Just how good has the pitching been?

A quality start corresponds to a game score of 50. Phillies starters have put up a game score of 50 or better in 13 out of the last 16 games. Roy Halladay (avg. 68), Roy Oswalt (69), and Joe Blanton (61) are 3-for-3 in quality starts in their last three starts, while Cole Hamels (64) is 3-1 and Kyle Kendrick is 1-2 (43).

Since August 13, the Phillies’ overall pitching (including the bullpen) has averaged a 2.24 ERA with 7.9 strikeouts and 1.2 walks per nine innings, a ratio of nearly seven-to-one. Halladay leads all of Major League Baseball (min. 100 IP) with a 2.87 SIERA and should now be the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award. Hamels went into yesterday’s start fifth in the NL with a 3.22 SIERA and Oswalt wasn’t far behind in seventh at 3.34.

As ill as fans felt after the Astros series, the Phillies are still winners of nine out of their last 15 games, good for a winning percentage of .600. As mentioned on Friday, the Phillies still have plenty of opportunities to gain significant ground in both playoff races. With a 1-2-3 punch of Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels that rivals that of any other in Major League Baseball, the Phillies will be ready to play some good baseball in the month of September. Should they be fortunate enough to reach the post-season for a fourth consecutive year, be it via the Wild Card or by winning the NL East, they will be the team the rest of the field least wants to meet.

Werth’s “clutchitude” has been a point of contention for much of the past three months ever since the media and fan base decided they no longer enjoyed his presence. And it’s true that this year, his offense has typically come when the team least needs it. The usefulness of those numbers is the crux of the debate.

He’s logged only 76 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position, certainly not a good sample size. Werth averages 4.2 PA per game, so that is the equivalent of roughly 18 games. Drawing conclusions from less than three weeks’ worth of data is certainly not recommended. And, as we learn here, the only stats that become reliable between 50 and 100 PA are swing rate and contact rate.

Furthermore, if you go back to one year ago, we find that Werth was pretty clutch, hitting for a .985 OPS with 2 outs/RISP and 1.006 when the game was “late & close”. In 2008, there was almost no difference in his performance in high and low leverage situations. Most reasonable people currently calling Werth a “choker” or “unclutch” would look at his ’09 stats and say he was clutch.

So, did Werth somehow lose his ability to be clutch between 2009 and ’10? Did he forget how to be clutch? Probably not. All it really amounts to is a favorable distribution of offense in one season and an unfavorable distribution in another year. While being clutch may indeed be a skill, study after study after study shows that clutch stats aren’t meaningful or persistent.

That is not to say that “the human element” has absolutely no effect on Werth’s failure in clutch situations this year. Given Werth’s impending free agency, the heavy dose of criticism he has received recently, and the team’s overall offensive struggles, it is a real possibility that he was trying to do too much and pressed when in those situations. His K/PA is much higher in high-leverage situations than in medium- and low-leverage situations, according to Baseball Reference: .31 to .18 and .22 respectively. His ISO is also significantly lower: .168 to .222 and .259 respectively.

We don’t know for sure if this is truly the reason why Werth has struggled in clutch spots but it is not indicative of any legitimate flaw, especially considering just how good he has been offensively overall. There is no reason to think that Werth will continue to perform as badly in these situations going forward — after all, his BABIP with two outs/RISP is a paltry .107.

As the following chart will show, the Phillies actually have quite a crew of above-average hitters:

(If you’re not familiar with wOBA, stop by the new stats page.)

Jayson Werth leads the pack with a .397 wOBA that is ninth-best in all of baseball. He is currently tied with Adrian Beltre and just ahead of Robinson Cano. Contrary to popular opinion, Werth is enjoying the best offensive season of his career.

No surprise that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley come in at two and three, respectively. Utley could be as high as Werth given his career .388 wOBA, but he was slumping for a while before his injury. From May 16 to June 28, Utley compiled a triple-slash line of .239/.331/.336 (.667 OPS). He went 0-for-5 last night in his first game since June 28.

Ross Gload should surprise you. During the first half, he wasn’t getting much playing time — maybe two or three starts per month. Once Howard injured his ankle, Charlie Manuel gave Gload more at-bats and it paid off. In the ten games in which he has played while Howard has been out, Gload has a triple-slash line of .320/.433/.600 (1.033 OPS).

Carlos Ruiz is another surprise. He is routinely lauded for his defensive contributions as well as his ability to work with the pitchers; he was never expected to do much with the bat, especially after his disappointing .279 wOBA in 2008. This year, though, Ruiz has become one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. Among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances this season, Ruiz has the seventh-best wOBA, just ahead of John Jaso and Miguel Olivo and slightly behind Jorge Posada and Miguel Montero. He’s also been on a three-week tear: since July 27, Ruiz’s triple-slash line is impressive: .361/.378/.597. Best of all, a healthy portion of those hits have come in higher-leverage situations. Although they may not be predictive of anything, the stats show that his timing is indeed impeccable.

Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins have the most room for improvement. Victorino hasn’t been hitting as many line drives, having hit more fly balls instead. Sadly, his BABIP on fly balls is a staggeringly low .042, much lower than the National League average .136. This may be because Victorino has adopted a more power-oriented approach — his HR/FB went from 5.5% last year to 10.6%  this year, causing his ISO to go up by 35 points.

Rollins’ trend is the opposite of Victorino’s. He’s drawn more walks, struck out less and hit for very little power (.114 ISO). The calf injury likely deserves a lot of blame but there are signs that Rollins is feeling healthier. In the first 21 games after his injury, he attempted only one steal. Since July 17 (26 games), he’s stolen nine bases in nine attempts. Hopefully the power is the next thing to come back to him.

As frustrating as this offense has been this year, the Phillies are finally getting closer to full health and should be back to scoring runs in bunches. Just in time for another late-season playoff push.

Following their ’06 struggles, Werth became one of the rare five-tool players in the game, Hamels found his niche at the top of the Phillies’ starting rotation, and Madson developed into one of the most devastating relief pitchers around. If you’re patient with talent, eventually you will be rewarded.

During the second half of ’08, Madson added some zip to his fastball. The four-seam fastball crossed 95 MPH on 83 different occasions, all of them occurring in July or later. From April through June, his fastball averaged 91.4 MPH; from July through September, his fastball averaged 93.2 MPH. Madson also harnessed his control as his BB/9 went from 2.7 in the first half to 2.2 in the second half. Overall, he went from a pitcher with a 4.23 SIERA in ’07 to 3.62 in ’08. His ERA was 3.05 in both seasons, garnering him wide mainstream praise.

Madson’s improvement earned him a reward in January ’09 — a three-year, $12 million contract extension. There were no expectations for him to usurp Brad Lidge‘s throne as the closer, especially since Lidge was coming off of a dominant perfect season in terms of saves and the Phillies had just won a World Series. He was simply expected to pitch in the eighth inning as the “bridge to Lidge”.

Madson continued to excel, finishing ’09 with a 3.18 SIERA and 3.26 ERA. His strikeout rate continued to climb (7.3 to 9.1 K/9) and his walk rate was well below-average (2.6 BB/9). The fastball averaged 95 MPH and hit 97 or higher on 32 different occasions. The average velocity gap between his fastball and change-up was 12 MPH, causing hitters to swing and miss at the change 30% of the time.

While ’09 was a prosperous time for Madson, it was quite the opposite for Lidge. His strikeout rate dropped to a career low and his walk rate increased to a career high, causing him to blow an inordinate amount of save opportunities. Lidge finished the year with a 7.21 ERA and admitted after the season that he pitched while injured. He missed time between June 7-25 and Madson was asked to fill in as the closer. In those nine innings, Madson allowed five runs total (all in three consecutive appearances) while blowing two saves and earning two losses.

Despite the small sample size, Madson was deemed as mentally incapable of closing games. This reputation prevented Charlie Manuel from officially demoting Lidge, and it cost the Phillies several games down the stretch as well as Game 4 of the ’09 World Series — the only World Series game in which Lidge appeared. Madson, meanwhile, compiled a 3.48 ERA in 10 and one-third post-season innings despite a ridiculous .467 BABIP.

Lidge had surgery in the off-season and missed the first month of the ’10 season. Madson, of course, was asked to fill in again, and again he struggled. In nine innings of work, Madson blew two saves and allowed seven runs. This was yet more evidence that Madson didn’t have a “closer’s mentality” although the reason for his struggles was more likely due to a .407 BABIP.

Madson bathed himself in gasoline and tossed himself into his own fire when he broke his toe kicking a folding chair in frustration after another poor outing in San Francisco. He missed six weeks and was fortunate that Jose Contreras filled in admirably. It was the cherry on top of what seemed to be an ice cream mountain of evidence for Phillies fans that Madson was mentally weak and incapable of handling any kind of pressure.

Since coming off of the DL on July 8, Madson has a 27-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 1.93 ERA in 18 and two-thirds innings. His SIERA is ninth-best in baseball at 2.19.  Although Lidge has been better lately, he is simply not reliable. If and when Lidge falters, Manuel needs to be quick in assigning Lidge’s higher-leverage innings to Madson. Unlike last year, the Phillies don’t have a division lead cushion on which to sit. They are currently two games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL East lead and tied with the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card lead. At the same point last year, the Phillies were up 4.5 games in the division.

Madson strikes out as many batters as Lidge; Lidge walks batters at nearly two and a half times the rate of Madson.

Madson still has a fastball that hits the high-90′s; Lidge didn’t hit 90 once in his appearance last night against the New York Mets.

Madson’s bread-and-butter pitch (change-up) induces swings-and-misses a whopping 42% of the time; Lidge’s (slider) only 17%. Overall, Madson induces 6.5% more whiffs.

Madson is a ground ball machine (50%); Lidge is not (37%).

There is no reason not to make a change, even now. Lidge has an average leverage index of 2.3 on the season while Madson owns a 1.7 mark. Those higher leverage innings should belong to Madson. The Phillies know from experience how close the playoff races get, having won the division on the last day in ’07 and on the last weekend in ’08. Making a change now can pay off exponentially later.

We saw Lidge’s performance in Game 4 of the World Series coming way back in June last year. Yet Manuel allowed it to happen anyway.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana

This dearth of run support has become a well-known problem but to truly grasp the issue, it may be best to look at a chart. I tossed Hamels’ basic pitching information into a spreadsheet (innings pitched, earned runs allowed). Then I counted all of the runs the Phillies offense scored in each start while he was the pitcher (excluding innings in which he was pinch-hit for). I converted each column of information into a rate per nine innings, then calculated the differential. Positive is good, negative is bad. Click the chart to view a larger version in a new window. The starts are listed in chronological order, with his first start on the left. His rain-shortened June 1 start has been excluded.

• Even differential: 2.4 RA / 2.4 RS (4 starts, 17%)
• Negative differential: 3.6 RA / 0.7 RS (10 starts, 43%)
• Positive differential: 3.1 RA / 6.9 RS (9 starts, 39%)

Hamels’ numbers since May 4 (excluding June 1): 122.1 IP, 2.64 ERA, 8.8 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9. He has won only five of those games, lost five, and received seven no-decisions. In that span of time, his offense has only scored four more runs than he has allowed. It’s as if, when Hamels toes the rubber, the offense hits like they’re facing another Hamels.

Lastly, a chart with the raw numbers, in case you’re interested:

Unless it’s against the Phillies.

Broxton has been the victim of some great Phillies memories recently. He added one more to the timeline last night.

The Phillies were down 9-2 going into the bottom of the eighth inning. FanGraphs listed their probability of winning at a whopping 1%. However, the never-say-die Phillies scored four runs on four singles and a double off of Ronald Belisario and Kenley Jansen. Still, their win probability only moved up to 3.6% by the end of the inning with the score 9-6.

Bottom of the ninth, enter Broxton, he of the career 4.91 ERA in 14.2 IP against the Phillies, highest among any team against which he has logged 11 or more innings. Was his lack of success against them running through his mind? Was he recalling:

• August 24, 2008: The Phillies are behind 2-1 with runners on first and second with two outs in the ninth. Shane Victorino reached on a single and Andy Tracy reached on a walk (Kyle Kendrick pinch-ran for him). When the second out of the inning was recorded, the Phillies had a 14.5% chance to win. Pedro Feliz brought the Phillies up to 61.3% with a game-tying single to right field. Feliz played the role of hero again in the bottom of the eleventh, hitting a walk-off three-run home run off of Jason Johnson.
• October 13, 2008: Game 4 of the National League Champsionship Series. The Phillies entered the top of the eighth inning behind 5-3. Shane Victorino tied the game with a line drive two-run home run down the right field line off of Cory Wade. Wade recorded the second out of the inning, then allowed a single to Carlos Ruiz before being pulled for Broxton. What happened next will be forever vivid in the memories of Phillies fans: Matt Stairs put one of the most beautiful swings on a Broxton fastball, hitting one of the most beautiful home runs, putting the Phillies up 7-5, the score by which they would win.
• May 14, 2009: The Phillies are behind 3-1 with two outs in the ninth. Broxton struck out Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth to start the inning, but Raul Ibanez singled and Greg Dobbs walked to bring up Carlos Ruiz. After falling behind 0-2 and fouling off two more tough pitches, Ruiz hit a double to deep right-center, scoring runs two and three to tie the game. The Phillies went from 1.6% to win after Werth’s strikeout to 61.1% after Ruiz’s double. The Phillies, however, ended up losing as Chad Durbin allowed two runs to the Dodgers in the top of the tenth. Ramon Troncoso nailed down the save.
• October 19, 2009: Game 4 of the NLCS again. The Phillies enter the bottom of the ninth trailing 4-3. Raul Ibanez grounded out for the first out of the inning, bringing up Matt Stairs. In what can only be described as sheer nervousness, Broxton walked Stairs on four pitches, three of which were low and outside. Carlos Ruiz was subsequently hit with a pitch, putting runners on first and second. Greg Dobbs lined out for the second out of the inning, bringing up Jimmy Rollins. And then this happened. Rollins laced a double to right-center, scoring the tying and go-ahead runs for a walk-off victory that put the Phillies up three games to one in the NLCS.

Back to tonight. The Phillies are down 9-6 entering the ninth inning. They have a 5% chance to win.

Broxton hit Polanco to start the ninth inning, then walked Mike Sweeney and Jayson Werth to load the bases with no outs. Ben Francisco hit a ground ball that went through Casey Blake‘s legs, scoring two runs to bring the Phillies within one run. Carlos Ruiz, always the hero, ended the game with a two-run double to left-center. Once again, Broxton walked off the field failing to have nailed down the save against the Phillies.

Here’s a look, in chart form, of Broxton’s failure to hold the Phillies scoreless. (Via FanGraphs)

It would be interesting to find out if the Phillies have information on Broxton that the rest of the league does not. While five games constitutes a very small sample, the odds of the Phillies coming from behind the way they have are astronomically low. There is likely something more to this than simple statistical variance, whether it’s Broxton’s jitters or some juicy information the Phillies have in their scouting reports.

It is likely that Romero is still not 100% from his off-season elbow surgery. In fact, Romero himself says that the surgery is the culprit. Via Matt Gelb:

“I have to get used to being healthy again,” he said. “My muscle memory has to be the way it was before. In the beginning, I was effective this year but my arm speed was slower and my hand was slower.

“But now, I feel real strong. So I have to make sure my hand stays on top of the ball every pitch like it was before my surgery. That’s all.”

The fact is, however, J.C. Romero simply never was that good, even before his injury last year. He always walked batters at an unacceptably high rate (career 5.2 BB/9) and he isn’t a maven of strikeouts as his K/9 didn’t cross 6.7 between 2006-10 (aside from ’08) and he never induced 10% or more swinging strikes.

Romero’s 4.38 ERA seems high, but he is actually much worse than that ERA indicates — his SIERA is 5.63. Since becoming a Phillie in mid-2007, he has done a great job of avoiding his SIERA thanks to a ridiculously low BABIP (.236 to .239) and a ridiculously high strand rate (81-90%). Both of those are unsustainable and should not be expected going forward.

Back at the end of March, I wrote that Romero should be used strictly as a LOOGY on account of the .200 difference in OPS against right-handed and left-handed batters (.810 to .601 respectively). That has generally been the case as 39% of the batters Romero faced in 2007 were left-handed, 44% in ’08 and ’09, and 55% this year. However, these are Romero’s last three appearances (8 batters faced, one out recorded; 5 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 1 K):

• August 5 @ FLA: Chad Tracy (LH) is announced as a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the seventh. Charlie Manuel brings in Romero for the lefty-on-lefty match-up. Tracy is pinch-hit for by Donnie Murphy, who promptly hits an RBI ground-rule double. Romero issues two walks to Hanley Ramirez and Logan Morrison before being lifted. Basically, it came down to Roy Oswalt facing a left-handed batter in Chad Tracy versus Romero against Murphy. Given Romero’s platoon splits and Tracy’s .695 and .612 OPS the past two years, taking Oswalt out of the game was foolish. It wasn’t as if Manuel had no idea the Marlins would pull that maneuver — it’s common managerial strategy.
• August 6 vs. NYM: Danys Baez recorded two outs in the top of the ninth, but was pulled with runners on first and second when the left-handed Chris Carter was announced as a pinch-hitter. Charlie brought in Romero for the lefty-on-lefty match-up, but Carter was swapped for the right-handed Mike Hessman. The result? Three-run home run to bring the Mets to within two runs at 7-5. The Phillies manager was burned in the same situation two days in a row by two different managers.”Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”
• August 10 vs. LAD: This appearance wasn’t as egregious as the previous two, but it’s just further evidence that Romero should only be used as a LOOGY, if and only if there is no chance he will face a right-handed hitter. The Phillies were down 13-7 in the top of the ninth. Romero was asked to simply record three outs as quickly as possible. He hit Andre Ethier with a pitch, then struck out James Loney, both left-handers. The right-handed Casey Blake then deposited a two-run home run over the left field fence. Romero capped his evening with that egregious walk to Sherrill.

The Phillies simply need to realize that Romero is not a good relief pitcher, regardless of what his ERA since 2007 is telling them. As long as he is on the roster, they need to coddle him by making sure he only faces left-handed batters and never use him in a high-leverage situation. He currently has the fifth-highest average leverage index upon entering the game, ahead of nine other relievers that have spent time on the Phillies’ roster.

Because of his left-handedness and the Phillies’ lack of reliable left-handed relievers, Romero’s ineffectiveness will have to be tolerated through the rest of the season. But it doesn’t mean that he has to continue being asked to pitch in unfavorable situations.

How will the regular season end for the Phillies?

Baseball Prospectus currently gives the Atlanta Braves a 79% chance at making the playoffs, including 69% to win the NL East and 10% to win the Wild Card. The Phillies are at 47% (29%, 18% respectively). Still, I voted that the Phillies would win the NL East.

Why? Well, I’m biased of course. But the Phillies also have a rather easy remaining schedule, as Tommy Bennett pointed out:

The Phillies’ schedule also provides relief. The team will play a majority (57 percent) of its remaining games at home, where it is 36-19 (compared to 26-30 on the road). The Phillies’ remaining opponents collectively play slightly below average offense for the league (by True Average); their opponents also have a slightly below average pitchers’ strikeout rate and a worse than average unintentional walk rate. That doesn’t mean the schedule is a cakewalk — the Phillies play 24 games in 23 days in one stretch — but it gives them a good chance at hunting the Braves and Giants (they have three left versus the Giants and six left versus the Braves, with those six being split — three home and three away; the season ends with three games between the Braves and Phillies).

How will Raul Ibanez perform for the rest of the season?

The obvious answer here is “somewhere in the middle” of “similar to his first half (.243 AVG, sub-.400 SLG)” and “similar to his last 22 days (1.064 OPS)”. Joe Pawlikowski went over Raul’s time in Philly in a recent post at FanGraphs, including a quote from myself back on June 7:

The 2010 season has been a real struggle for Raul Ibanez and the Philadelphia Phillies, but it is not unique. The Atlanta Braves are wondering if they are ever going to get anything out of Nate McLouth; the New York Yankees have been waiting for Curtis Granderson to find his power; the Houston Astros are trying to find out who took away Carlos Lee‘s offense. Over the next four months those three hitters will, most likely, improve offensively not because someone found a mechanical flaw or they fixed their timing (although that could certainly happen), but because they are simply regressing to their mean. I can flip a coin ten times and get eight tails. If I continue to flip a coin 100 more times, I should expect that coin to come up tails not 80% of the time, but 50% — its true probability. The same holds true for Raul and many other struggling baseball players.

Raul could continue to hit well and he could also go back into an offensive slump. But the most likely scenario is that he hits somewhere around his career .351 wOBA between now and the end of the season.

Is Jimmy Rollins still an elite player?

Rollins’ .331 wOBA ranks seventh among all shortstops with at least 230 plate appearances. His 11.9 UZR/150 over the past three years is the best among all shortstops. He’s been worth 1.8 WAR in an injury-plagued season in which he has played only 52 games.

Many fans point to Rollins’ declining bat. It is definitely true that Rollins has not been anywhere near as productive offensively in 2009-10 as he was in prior years. It has a lot to do with his approach at the plate. The past two years, his BABIP has been .251 and .257 — very low totals. Unlike pitchers, hitters do have a large say in BABIP results. Rollins’ is low because he has been trying to hit more fly balls. In ’08, 45% of his batted balls were ground balls and 31% were fly balls. The past two years, those rates have dropped to 40% and 42% respectively. Fly balls result in a lower BABIP than ground balls, hence why Rollins hasn’t been as offensively potent.

If Rollins goes back to a ground ball approach, he can hit well enough to keep himself among baseball’s elite shortstops. However, if he’s simply average offensively, he can still find himself ranked among baseball’s second tier of shortstops (i.e. anyone not named Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, or Troy Tulowitzki).

Whose return is more key to the Phillies’ success going forward? (Chase Utley or Ryan Howard)

This is total Crashburn bait. Currently, the poll results have Utley narrowly edging out Howard 53% to 47%. Obviously, that makes me want to rip my face off. Over the past three years, Utley has been twice as valuable as Howard in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Utley plays a premium position, is better offensively (.395 to .383 wOBA over the past three years), and plays immaculate defense (16.1 to Howard’s -2.4 UZR/150 over the past three years).

Many people think I hate Howard and the response to this question isn’t going to help resolve that image, but the Utley-Howard debate is a joke. Utley is far and away baseball’s best second baseman while Howard isn’t among baseball’s top-five best first basemen.

What is a bigger factor for the Phillies going forward? (Strength of the rotation or weakness of the bullpen)

As shown in the recent post on kwERA, the important guys in the ‘pen all grade out nicely in terms of strike zone dominance. Their SIERA aren’t too different either. Really, the bullpen will be just fine if we can somehow convince Charlie Manuel to only — and I mean only — use J.C. Romero against left-handed batters and drop Danys Baez off at the curb. Otherwise, Manuel has done a decent job of giving higher-leverage innings to his better relievers.

The National League average bullpen ERA this year is 4.14. The Phillies’ is 4.06. Meanwhile, the NL average starters’ ERA is 4.10 while the Phillies’ is 3.89 and that’s barely including the presence of Roy Oswalt. The trio of Roy Halladay, Oswalt, and Cole Hamels is arguably baseball’s best 1-2-3 while Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick are right where they belong, in the #4 and 5 spots respectively. The Phillies clearly separate themselves from the pack with their starting pitching and it will play a huge role in their success or failure in attaining another playoff berth.

In the comments below, share how you voted and the thought processes you used to reach your conclusions. Also feel free to express your disagreement with my conclusions.