[...] according to sources, an idea has been kicked around the Phillies’ organization internally, with discussions about proposing a swap of slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis superstar Albert Pujols.

Hold on to your hats, folks.

It’s not fully clear whether the Phillies actually have approached the Cardinals with the idea, and even if St. Louis were to seriously consider such an offer[...]

In other words, don’t expect this trade to actually happen.

The last time we bloggers called B.S. on a trade rumor, we got burned big time by Ken Rosenthal. However, as The Yankee Universe noted on Twitter, the difference is that “we knew Roy was getting traded, just not for what”. There has been no real momentum in Ryan Howard trade talks (except by yours truly) and this is really the first legitimate mention of an Albert Pujols trade.

Overall, the pieces don’t add up to make this rumor realistic. The Cardinals recently signed outfielder Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million contract. That was a good will gesture on the part of the Cardinals organization to show Pujols that they are committed to putting a competitive team on the field year after year. Pujols, of course, will be a free agent after 2011 and the Cardinals want to do as much as they can to convince him to stay in St. Louis and perhaps even take a hometown discount.

The Cardinals payroll currently sits at about $90 million going into 2010. Holliday and Pujols, at $17 million and $16 million respectively, represent about 37% of the Cardinals’ total payroll. That percentage only figures to increase when Pujols does eventually re-sign. That may sound like bad economics but the Cardinals wouldn’t have signed Holliday to that contract if they didn’t feel like they could make a legitimate pitch to Pujols to keep him in St. Louis.

As for the Phillies, it doesn’t make sense from their end either. Both Pujols and Howard are free agents after 2011 and both are expected to strike big in free agency if they aren’t re-signed. Both will net their teams a first round draft pick and a sandwich pick if they sign elsewhere. Pujols, clearly the better player, will make $2 million less than Howard this year and $3 million less in 2011. While it appears that the Phillies would save money, they likely would have to send money along with Howard to offset the difference.

Presumably the Phillies would want to sign their first baseman to a long-term contract. They are much more likely to accomplish this with Ryan Howard than with Albert Pujols, who may join Alex Rodriguez in the annual $30 million salary club.

This is all without mentioning the obvious chasm in value between the two players. Last year, Howard was worth 4.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs. He has accrued about 19.5 WAR since 2006, an average of about 5 WAR per season. Pujols was worth 8.5 WAR and has been worth 33 WAR since 2006, an average of 8.25 per season. Whether the Cardinals and Phillies value their first basemen in this fashion is unknown, but it seems ludicrous to think that anyone would put Howard anywhere near the pedestal upon which Pujols rests.

Adding to the lack of realism of this rumor is the Jayson Werth situation. Werth is a free agent after this season and the team will decide if they can afford to re-sign him and if they will choose to offer him a contract. If Werth doesn’t re-sign, then the Phillies will have to re-sign Ryan Howard or they will face the prospect of having two significant holes to fill in two consecutive years (and only one can be filled with Domonic Brown, an unproven quantity). GM Ruben Amaro has been very stingy with the length of contracts he offers to players, adhering to a limit of three guaranteed years.

Losing Werth (avg. 4.5 WAR) + trading Howard (avg. 5 WAR) + trading prospects + sending cash for 3-4 years of Albert Pujols (avg. 8.25 WAR) simply isn’t worth it. For the amount of money that the Phillies would have to pay Pujols, they could re-sign Werth and Howard while clearing salary by trading Shane Victorino, for example (which has the added effect of losing a lesser player in creating a job for Domonic Brown).

Perhaps the most glaring factor in this is that the Phillies, after all of their recent trading, have a Minor League system that ranks in the bottom-third in baseball according to most respected publications. To acquire Pujols, the Phillies would have to offer at least two good prospects and their farm system would quickly jettison to the bottom of the barrel.

What the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay mega-deal showed us was that Amaro is very cognizant of his Minor League system and isn’t willing to mortgage the long-term goal for short-term gains. Simply put, if Amaro was the type to trade Howard, cash, and two top prospects to St. Louis for Pujols, Lee would still be wearing Phillies pinstripes in 2010.

Besides, what kind of a season do you think Brad Lidge would have with Pujols in the clubhouse?

Baseball traditionalists use stats to compliment a player truly worthy of praise. Hank Aaron’s 755 career home runs; Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak; Cal Ripken’s 2,632 consecutive games played, etc. are prominent examples. Even if one is completely ignorant of Sabermetrics, people still default to numbers, which makes the praise of a player’s intangibles all the more transparent. If a player is good, his numbers are cited. If his numbers aren’t brought up, then he probably wasn’t that good.

John Finger of CSNPhilly.com recently wrote an article praising Polanco, saying that his contributions can’t be found in stat form. It’s amusing because Polanco is not in need of the assistance. He’s been a second baseman with a career .761 OPS. Not exactly Chase Utley numbers, but he’s been about average offensively at a premium defensive position. He also happens to have been a very, very good fielder at second base.

This is not David Eckstein we’re talking about, he of the career .358 slugging percentage; he of the noodle arm who must muster all of the strength in his body to toss the ball to first base.

This is Placido Polanco. Among second basemen in the 2000’s, there have been just 20 player-seasons in which a player has racked up 500 or more plate appearances and struck out 46 or fewer times. Polanco is responsible for six of them (30%). Three of the top-five slugging percentages belong to him. He doesn’t strike out much and can hit for some power (despite being quoted as saying he can’t in Finger’s article).

At second base, where he has racked up nearly 8,500 innings, his UZR/150 is at an even 10.0, meaning that for every 150 opportunities, Polanco will make ten more plays than the average second baseman. At third base, a position he hasn’t played regularly since 2002, he has a 9.9 UZR/150.

As for base running, Baseball Prospectus thinks he’s been a boon as well. Using EqBRR (definition), he’s been at 1.3, 3.0, and 0.8 over the last three years. Pedro Feliz, on the other hand, was at -5.6 and -0.7 in 2009 and ‘08 with the Phillies.

Bringing it all together, FanGraphs values him at 28 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) since 2002, an average of about 3.5 WAR per season. In that span of time, he’s been worth $100 million ($12.5 million per season) and been paid a meager $31.6 million (about $4 million per season). On average, Polanco has been worth about three times as much as he’s been paid, meaning that the Phillies and Tigers have really gotten their money’s worth with him.

Among all second baseman over the past three years, only Chase Utley (23.6 WAR), Dustin Pedroia (15.7), and Brian Roberts (12.5) have been more valuable than Polanco (11.4).

Finger writes, “there’s just something the grizzled baseball men see in Polanco that defies measurement.”

This is insulting to Polanco! The numbers beautify his contributions on the baseball field. No, he’s not the “three true outcomes” basher that have been popularized by Sabermetrics, like Adam Dunn. However, would a “grizzled baseball man” claim that Polanco was more valuable than both Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Reyes in 2007? More valuable than Carl Crawford and Derek Jeter in ‘05?

It’s true that there may be some facets of Polanco’s game that aren’t quantified on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus. I’m sure he’s great in the clubhouse. However, to focus on those aspects instead of what is staring you right in the face — his average offense, his incredible defense at second base, his ability to run the bases intelligently — is to completely misunderstand and underestimate Polanco’s value on the baseball field.

Polanco does not need the window dressing compliments reserved for the David Ecksteins of the baseball world. He’s been good enough to throw his hat in the ring with the best in the game.

Despite being complimentary of Polanco here and admitting that GM Ruben Amaro signed Polanco for well under market value, I still remain a critic of the signing. I don’t like signing an aging player to a multi-year deal to play a position he hasn’t played regularly since 2002. I don’t like paying $6 million on average for Polanco when Chone Figgins, who has more upside, was signed for $9 million on average.

To criticize the signing is not to criticize the player, however. We can say, at the same time, that the Phillies should not have signed the fourth-most valuable second baseman of the past three years to a below market contract. We can recognize Polanco’s value while still being critical.

. . .

My first entry at Baseball Prospectus should be up at 9 AM EST today. Click here and it should be at the top at that time.

EDIT: Here it is.

I am currently working on Phillies previews for The Hardball Times and Baseball Daily Digest. Both should run at the end of the month. Additionally, ESPN is also asking for my input on the Phillies. Stay tuned for that. I’ll provide appropriate links as they become available.

As recently as 2007, during the short-lived Freddy Garcia era in Philadelphia, fans were mocking Pat Gillick and others in the front office for the epic failure of a trade with the Chicago White Sox. Not only did the Phillies trade former first-round draft pick Gavin Floyd (along with Gio Gonzalez) to acquire Garcia, but they did not require him to take and pass an MRI examination.

Why is that important?

On June 6, the Phillies were in Kansas City for an inter-league game against the Royals. Freddy Garcia started the game and was out before most fans could settle into their seats. He could only record five outs in between allowing nine base runners, six of whom scored, on seven hits and two walks. Shortly thereafter, Garcia was placed on the 60-day disabled list with labrum and rotator cuff problems which required surgery.

After the loss that night, the Phillies dropped to one game over .500 at 31-30 and appeared headed for another typical Phillies season in the 2000’s: 85+ wins but no playoffs, this time thanks to a rash of injuries. In ‘07, the Phillies dealt with injuries to Garcia, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Jon Lieber, Tom Gordon, and Brett Myers.

How quickly things change. The Phillies, of course, would clinch the NL East division on the last day as the Mets dropped their final game at home to the Florida Marlins. The Colorado Rockies steamrolled over the Phils in the NLDS en route to a World Series appearance, but the Phillies were nonetheless rejuvenated.

In 2008, the Phillies avoided the injury bug in a magical season that culminated in the franchise’s second World Series championship and first since 1980. Perhaps the biggest factor in that was the collective avoidance of the injury bug. Seven of the eight regulars logged at least 400 at-bats, four starters started at least 30 games, and four relievers appeared in 70 or more games.

Similarly, in ‘09, when the Phillies returned to the World Series but lost to the New York Yankees in six games, the team tip-toed once again around the injury bug. Seven of the eight regulars logged 500 at-bats or more this time around. The team, overall, was healthy enough to earn the Dick Martin award from Baseball Prospectus:

[...] this isn’t a fluke. The Phillies three-year and five-year averages for both days and dollars lost to the DL are among the many reasons this team is taking home the trophy this season. In just the third year after taking over from long-time trainer Jeff Cooper, Sheridan’s staff is a relatively new one, but it’s already considered one of the best in the business.

[...]

As Sean Engelhardt’s graphic so clearly shows, the Phillies are doing more than keeping players healthy—they’re saving their team and adding wins and dollars to the bottom line. In fact, for many teams, it could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

Jeff’s spreadsheet contains the injury-related data for all 30 teams dating back eight years to 2002.  The data pertinent to the Phillies:

Only the 2002-04 Phillies rival the 2008-09 squads in terms of injury cost relative to payroll, and those earlier teams didn’t have anywhere near the caliber of players. Considering the players the Phillies have had the last two years, it makes the feat all the more impressive.

How important is staying healthy? I used Jeff’s data to create a scatter plot comparing each team’s win total from 2002-09 with its corresponding % of salary lost to injury.

It may seem common sense, but it is also fleshed out by the data. Win totals are negatively correlated with % of salary lost to injury, or in other words: better teams stay healthy. The Phillies have done a good job of that this decade, but especially during the past two years, considering that in 2008, 6 of the 8 regulars were between 27 and 29 years old and 4 of the 6 starters were between 23 and 27 years old.

When people look back on the Phillies of the late two-aughts, many will fondly remember the power of Ryan Howard, the all-around game of Chase Utley, and Brad Lidge’s perfect season. However, what shouldn’t be forgotten is the team’s health, due in some part to luck, some part to the effort of the players to stay in good shape, and in some part to the diligence of the team’s training staff. Health has played a significant role in the recent success of the Phillies.

An example of the converse would be last year’s New York Mets. They used 29 different position players and 24 different pitchers. The ‘08 Phillies used 22 and 18 respectively; the ‘09 Phillies used 19 and 22 respectively.

Jamie Moyer, Brad Lidge, and J.C. Romero have each had surgery during the off-season but all three figure to be ready by mid-April and healthy for the rest of the regular season, knock on wood. The 2010 Phillies can get back to the World Series for a third straight time — and become the first National League team to accomplish the feat since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals — so long as their key contributors punch in their 500 at-bats, 30 starts, or 50 relief appearances.

Despite the popular claim that you can always see something new in a baseball game, there are finite events that can occur on the baseball field. They have been neatly categorized into buckets such as safe or out; ball or strike; ground ball, fly ball, or line drive; single, double, triple, or home run; fastball, change-up, slider, and so on. That makes the data much easier to collect and analyze than in other, more prevalent areas of science. For instance, we know surprisingly little about the human body despite the incredible advancements that have been made over the years. Yet the research of neurosurgeons is never called into question by the average person, but the research of Sabermetricians is constantly taken to task. Sabermetric research has been very thorough and very convincing to many people, resulting in sea change in the philosophy found in baseball front offices.

The glaring theme with the 2000 draft was how few of the first-rounders panned out into productive Major Leaguers. 17 of the 40 (42.5%) never reached the Majors. Of the 17, only five were still active in 2009. Eight were out of professional baseball after 2007. Four went back to independent league baseball.

Of the 23 who did reach the Majors, 17 were still active in 2009. Of those 17, only 13 were still active in the Majors last year.

14 of the 23 are pitchers, only nine of them have thrown 100 or more innings at the Major League level. Five of the 14 pitchers have compiled a negative wins above replacement (WAR) total over their careers. Six of the 14 have compiled 1 WAR or more in the span of their careers.

Nine of the 23 are position players, only four of them have compiled 1,000 or more plate appearances at the Major League level.  Five of the nine position players have compiled a negative WAR total over their careers.

Overall, this is what the draft class of eventual Major Leaguers looked like:
(click to enlarge)

Utley has compiled more WAR in his career than the #2, 3, and 4 players (Gonzalez, Wainwright, Baldelli) combined. The Phillies could just as easily have passed on Utley. The Mets, with the 16th pick after Utley was picked 15th by the Phillies, selected Billy Traber. The Pirates took Sean Burnett 19th. The Phillies could have soured on Utley’s size and then lackluster defense and taken Traber, or Burnett or Phil Dumatrait, or someone else.

Hardly any of these picks have turned out well and the biggest successes have emerged with a team other than the one that selected them. Adrian Gonzalez was drafted by the Florida Marlins but was sent to Texas in the Ugueth Urbina deal, then sent to San Diego in the Adam Eaton/Akinori Otsuka trade. Adam Wainwright was sent to St. Louis as part of an exchange that brought J.D. Drew to Atlanta.

It’s not as if the other teams don’t draft well; it’s just that 2000 was such a poor draft for just about everyone but Ed Wade and the Phillies. In 2001, Joe Mauer, Mark Prior, Gavin Floyd, Mark Teixeira, Casey Kotchman, and David Wright were all taken in the first round. In 2002, B.J. Upton, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Denard Span, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, John Mayberry, and Mark Teahen were selected in the first round.

Looking at the five or so Major Leaguers from the Class of 2000 who have gone on to have productive Major League careers, it is quite breathtaking that not only did the Phillies have one of the five, but the far and away best of the five in Chase Utley.

The Phillies have won the NL East in each of the last three seasons. They won it all in 2008 and were two wins away from repeating in ‘09. Aside from their ability to mash the baseball, the Phillies have been known as one of the most aggressive and efficient base-running teams in all of baseball, thanks in large part to the hiring of first base coach Davey Lopes prior to the ‘07 season. It is common knowledge that Lopes, a prolific base-stealer in his playing days (557 bags in 671 attempts, 83 percent), has helped the Phillies’ baserunning by lending his wisdom to the players. For fun, we will test that theory to see how accurate it truly is.

It has been pointed out that I was too absolutist with my conclusions, and that is correct. I’m not sure if that will be edited but I wanted to point it out here anyway. At any rate, I hope you enjoy it.

Let’s play a game. You are the general manager of a Major League Baseball franchise and you are faced with the burden of choosing between Player A and Player B. You may only keep one.

• Player A is a four-tool player who was worth between 4.5 and 5.0 WAR last year and averaged about 4.5 WAR over the past three seasons
• Player B is a one-tool player who was worth between 4.5 and 5.0 WAR last year and averaged about 4.5 WAR over the past three seasons

The decision is obvious, right? Clearly you’d take the four-tool player. No questions asked. When one (or even two) of Player A’s tools aren’t useful, he can still rely on his other tools to contribute to the team. When Player B’s only tool falters, he becomes a detriment to his team.

Time to attach names to the faces. Player A is Jayson Werth, who I think we can all agree is a four-tool player (power, base running, throwing, fielding). Player B is Ryan Howard, who I think we can all agree is a one-tool player (power). In case you’re not convinced…

• Average (not a tool for either player), 2007-09: Werth, .276; Howard, .266
• Power (SLG), 2007-09: Werth, .494; Howard, .565
• Base running (EQBRR), 2007-09: Werth, 8.7; Howard, -11.9
• Throwing: Can’t really compare an outfielder’s arm to a first baseman’s but I don’t think anyone will disagree with the statement that Jayson Werth has a great arm and Ryan Howard does not. Howard has committed 20 throwing errors as a first baseman in his career; Werth has never committed a throwing error as an outfielder, and he has accrued 29 assists.
• Fielding (UZR/150), 2007, ‘08, and ‘09: Werth (as OF), 35.3+35.3+3.4; Howard, 0.4+2.4+1.2

I recently suggested that, after the 2010 season, the Phillies should trade Howard to create enough payroll space to sign Werth to a contract extension. If you take the time to peruse the comments left on the article, you can see that a lot of fans balked at the suggestion. Both Werth and Howard were worth about the same in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last year; Werth has had the higher WAR average from 2007-09. And Werth, of course, is a much more versatile player. That’s not to say that Werth is the more valuable player, but that his value is spread out into more areas which in itself has value.

Both players bring with them some concerns. With Werth, the question is whether or not he can sustain his recent level of production going forward. Personally, I think you can set your watch to Jayson as he has finished each of the past three seasons with an OPS between .861 and .879. Others are worried about the wrist issue that plagued him prior to his time with the Phillies but that has not come back on the radar at any time in the past three years.

As for Howard, those of us who use statistics have compared him to past sluggers who did not age gracefully. In his age 26 and 27 seasons, Baseball Reference thinks his closest comparison is Norm Cash, which is not an upsetting comparison — he was a very productive hitter. However, Howard is compared to Cecil Fielder in his age 28 season. Fielder flamed out in 1997 at age 33 and was out of baseball entirely one year later. Richie Sexson is Howard’s best comparison for his age 29 season. Sexson hit the skids in 2007 in his age 32 season and was out of baseball entirely one year later.

A lot of casual baseball fans are skeptical of these comparisons and the raised eyebrows are not unwarranted. I cannot think of many baseball players who really fit the Ryan Howard mold, and those I can think of are Hall of Famers like Willie Stargell and Willie McCovey. There is a lot of bias in there, though, as I will be primarily reminded of players who made a positive impact (for instance, try to remember anything former Phillie Dave Doster has ever done on a baseball diamond), and my Phillies fandom also biases my perception. Still, I think Stargell and McCovey are better comparisons than Fielder and Sexson.

In addition to the unpredictable aging process, Howard has performed gradually worse against left-handed pitchers and he’s been seeing them gradually more — a bad trend:

• 2006: 225 PA vs LHP, .923 OPS
• 2007: 246 PA vs LHP, .826 OPS
• 2008: 265 PA vs LHP, .746 OPS
• 2009: 252 PA vs LHP, .653 OPS

Howard’s walk rate has also decreased from 16.5% in 2007 to 11.6% in ‘08 to 10.7% in ‘09.

So, both players have some question marks going forward and they are questions that the Phillies’ front office will have to answer when deciding to keep both, neither, or one of the two players. Personally, if I have the opportunity to clear a large amount of payroll space, re-sign a similarly-valuable but more versatile player, and acquire Major League talent and/or prospects by trading Ryan Howard (who is owed $20 million in 2011), I’m going to do it in a heartbeat.

As for moving Utley to first, a few commenters have come up with alternatives that still involve trading Howard. Instead of shifting Utley to first base, Raul Ibanez would instead move from left field and Domonic Brown would take his place. Ibanez is a free agent after 2011 though, so the Phillies would have to either shift another player to first base or sign a slugger via free agency. I actually like this idea better than the one I originally proposed especially due to its Occam’s Razor nature.

I know fans wanted — and still want — Ruben Amaro to pull out all the stops and go for another World Series in 2010, the future of the franchise be damned, but I imagine most would opt for a much more conservative strategy if they were responsible for balancing the ledger. Amaro’s job is not just to put together a competitive roster in 2010, but ensure that he and his successors are able to do so down the road as well. Ultimately, trading Ryan Howard may chip away a percentage point or two in terms of probability of winning it all in 2011, but it makes future Phillies teams much more likely to have that same shot down the road. Losing Jayson Werth after 2010 and Howard after ‘11 is simply not worth gunning for another championship.

To put it simply: keeping Howard until he leaves via free agency — resulting in Werth leaving after 2010 to free agency — is gambling. The “keep Howard” strategy mortgages future assets in attempt to increase present assets. It’s not a good strategy because baseball’s post-season is a crapshoot. The team with the best record in the Majors has won the World Series just twice in the 2000’s: the ‘09 Yankees and the ‘07 Red Sox. Since the inception of the wild card in 1995, the World Series has been won by a wild card winner four times: the ‘04 Red Sox, ‘03 Marlins, ‘02 Angels, and ‘97 Marlins. Having the best team does not ensure anything in the post-season.

Successful gamblers know when to stop rolling the dice. That time would be after the 2010 season when Ryan Howard’s trade value will be at its highest (assuming he has a typical Ryan Howard year) and the Phillies can wait no longer to retain Jayson Werth.

However, if any professional baseball player should be supporting the use of Sabermetrics, it’s Youkilis. These stats have done for him what skinny mirrors do for fat people. What the movie Superbad has done for nerds. What online file-sharing has done for underground musicians. I digress — you get the point. Stats have done that body good!

There’s more to it than simple statistic sharing though, as we will also feature a piece of content written by a Heater author daily here at BP, via the fantasy blog.  The plan is to give a rundown of players to look at or avoid at all positions over the course of the week, so that way you always have updated information for your roster, rather than having to wait for me to get around to that sort of thing in a twice-per-week column format.

Mondays, Michael Street, who writes on Asian-American sports and culture for Examiner.com, in addition to Heater, will cover 1B, 3B and DH.  On Tuesdays, Michael Jong, who you may know from Marlin Maniac as well as my old stomping grounds, Beyond the Box Score, will write about 2B, SS and catchers. Rob McQuown from Baseball Daily Digest and our own Unfiltered will cover Wednesdays, taking a look at outfielders. Thursdays will bring you Lee Panas, author of Detroit Tiger Tales, and our coverage of relievers. Finally, on Fridays, Bill Baer from Crashburn Alley will write about starting pitching, because if there is one thing we lack here at BP, it’s Phillies fans that are also writers.

The only chore left on the list is to determine the fate of right fielder — and cultivator of the beard that fried the Interwebs — Jayson Werth.

On Twitter, I briefly jawed with @Phylan of Fire Ruben Amaro and @Phrontiersman of Phillies Nation, discussing the possibility that Placido Polanco will only be the Phillies’ third baseman for the duration of the 2010 season, and then will move to second for 2011-12 following a trade of Ryan Howard and a shift to first base for Chase Utley. In my hypothetical, the trade of Howard would allow the Phillies to clear enough payroll space to re-sign Werth.

Phylan and Phrontiersman, rightly so, questioned if it was worth moving Utley’s bat and glove to a lesser position. Is it worth it? Let’s find out.

Placido Polanco

CHONE projects Polanco to be worth about 4 batting runs in 2010.

Additionally, CHONE projects Polanco to be worth about 6 fielding runs, but it’s based on his previous playing time at second base. As you know, Polanco will be manning the hot corner in Philadelphia, a position he hasn’t played full-time since 2002. Projecting him to be average (0 fielding runs) is optimistic, but let’s use it — again, for simplicity.

Polanco would get about 21.5 replacement-level runs if he were to accrue 650 PA. And then to adjust for position, we would give Polanco 2.5 runs (second and third base, as well as center field, add 2.5 runs).

All told, Polanco the third baseman is worth 4+ 0 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 28 runs above replacement, which roughly translates into 2.8 wins above replacement.

Polanco the second baseman is worth 4 + 6 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 34 runs above replacement, or about 3.4 WAR.

Going forward, the calculations will follow the same formula, so I won’t spell them out every step of the way. The positional adjustments are found here.

Chase Utley

Would Chase Utley be as good a defender at first base as he is at second? In a sample size roughly 36 times smaller, Chase has put up a 16.2 UZR/150 at first base (200 defensive innings) compared to a 15.5 at second (7200 defensive innings).

Most of his defensive value at second base stems from his range. On average, he’s good for about 14.5 range runs per 1,350 defensive innings, compared to 0.2 double play runs and 0.2 error runs. Utley’s performance in a very limited sample has shown that he has similar range at first base, but it needs to be regressed to the mean.

• Double play runs: -0.2
• Range runs: 1.8
• Error runs: 0.5
• Total: 2.1

CHONE projects him to provide about 4 fielding runs at second base.

Chase the second baseman: 33 + 4 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 61 RAR, 6.1 WAR

Chase the first baseman: 33 + 2 + 21.5 – 12.5 = 44 RAR, 4.4 WAR

We have to figure the value of Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, and replacements at RF and 3B for 2011 and 1B for 2012. For the sake of argument, we’ll use CHONE’s WAR projection for 2010.

• Werth: 4.7 WAR
• Howard: 4.4 WAR

Again, for the sake of argument, we’ll assume the Phillies find an average player to fill in at right field, third base, and first base.

• Average RF: 0 + 0 + 21.5 – 7.5 = 14 RAR, 1.4 WAR
• Average 3B: 0 + 0 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 24 RAR, 2.4 WAR
• Average 1B: 0 + 0 + 21.5 – 12.5 = 9 RAR, 0.9 WAR

Now we add it all up:

• Utley, 1B: 4.4 WAR
• Polanco, 2B: 3.4 WAR
• Replacement 3B: 2.4 WAR
• Werth: 4.7 WAR
• Total: 14.9 WAR

The status quo:

• Howard, 1B: 4.4 WAR
• Utley, 2B: 6.1 WAR
• Polanco, 3B: 2.8 WAR
• Replacement RF: 1.4 WAR
• Total: 14.7 WAR

Making the trade would cost the Phillies roughly one-fifth of a win above replacement. Of course, trading Howard with one year left on his contract would allow the Phillies the flexibility to sign Werth for several years (three + option most likely). In 2012, the Phillies would be getting about 15 WAR if they trade Howard, while getting only 11.2 WAR if Werth leaves after 2010 and let Howard leaves after 2011.

Plus, a Howard trade could net them prospects and some players who can help out at the big league level, perhaps someone who could contribute at an above-average level at third base. The Phillies’ Minor League system at present has only two prospects whom Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranks as four-star or better: Domonic Brown and Phillippe Aumont.

Like the trade of Cliff Lee, the short-term benefits of a Ryan Howard trade are marginal at best, but down the road such a maneuver would have benefits. In fact, the Lee trade is a perfect analogy: trading a star player with just one year remaining before free agency to acquire/retain someone else (Roy Halladay/Jayson Werth) who is locked up for a longer period of time.

I think that, based on the data, the domino effect of trading Ryan Howard is worth starting, but only if it was a lock that Werth would re-sign at a reasonable price. The Phillies could trade Howard and escape from his entire $20 million salary in 2011 (the more money they want to clear, the less they get back in terms of talent). Then they would re-sign Jayson Werth to a three-year, $50 million deal that is backloaded, paying him $13 million in ‘11 and $18.5 million each in ‘12 and ‘13.

That would save the Phillies $7 million in 2011, with $125 million committed to 17 players. The top 17 Phillies this year are making a combined $136 million, so the team would actually be in better financial shape next year to round out the roster.

In short, trading Ryan Howard after the 2010 season allows the Phillies to:

• Clear payroll space
• Retain Jayson Werth
• Replenish the farm system and/or acquire a productive third baseman
• Stay competitive in 2012 and beyond, when the Phillies can lose as many as eight other players to free agency

As for caveats, there are a few. My methods for deriving the players’ level of production is somewhat arbitrary. For specificity, you would want to account for aging for all parties involved. Also excluded was base running which adds even more to the case to trade Howard, who is not a productive runner. I used CHONE projections; others may prefer another system such as PECOTA. There is also scarcity to account for, as it’s easier to find average first basemen than third basemen. Lastly, there are other scenarios in which Ryan Howard is traded that don’t involve moving Utley to first base.

Overall, though, I think I touched the most important bases. Feel free to comment and add to my case or to present a counter-argument.