Today in Misleading Cole Hamels Analysis

Today in Misleading Cole Hamels Analysis

This latest salvo of Cole Hamels analysis comes from Tony Blengino at FanGraphs. Blengino is a former stat wizard with the Seattle Mariners. The analysis gives off the appearance of thoroughness but it’s a simple FIP-ERA comparison that uses the assumption that the Phillies’ outfield defense was “reasonably strong” — a laughable assertion.

I don’t have the time right now to go into it in depth, but thought I’d pass along the link if you want something to hate-read. I may add more here when I have more time.

It’s Never Too Late To Get Smart

It’s been more than a year since the exciting announcement that the Phillies front office added Scott Freedman to help improve their usage of analytics was paired with the endlessly mock-able revelation that he was actually an “extern” whose salary paid not by the Phillies but by Major League Baseball. While every other MLB team accepted the value of data analysis to some degree, it appeared from the outside that the Phillies relationship with analytics was much like that of a stubborn young child with broccoli leaving MLB and parents alike with no option but to force feed their obstinate charges. It was laughable and, frankly, embarrassing for analytically-minded Phillies fans, but sometimes even the tiniest step in a positive direction can result in momentum leading to positive change and maybe, just maybe, that’s what has occurred in the Phillies front office since the extern experiment.

Continue reading…

Domonic Brown’s Path to Success

In a roundtable discussion last week, my fellow Crashburn writers and I were given the task of answering this question: “Does Domonic Brown rebound from his horrid 2014? If so, to what degree?” I think I came up with a reasonable enough answer at the time, but the question stumped me and has been rattling around in my head ever since. This summer will see the 5th anniversary of Brown’s Major League debut and in those five years every aspect of his baseball career has been analyzed under a Philadelphia-sized microscope from his May 2013 breakout to his awful 2014 to management’s controversial handling of his early MLB career to his Dallas Cowboys fandom. For this reason, it caught me off guard to realize that the reason I struggled with the roundtable question about Brown’s future was this absurd fact: I no longer knew who Domonic Brown was as a baseball player. Maybe it was the fault of information overload or simply lazy recent analysis on my end, but I set out to update both my understanding of and expectations for Domonic Brown.

Continue reading…

There Isn’t A Market for Ryan Howard Right Now

In a column for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal argues that the Phillies really shouldn’t be having much difficulty moving first baseman Ryan Howard. He quotes an American League executive, who discredit’s Howard’s ability to hit for power by citing his slugging percentage. Rosenthal counters by comparing Howard’s SLG to a selection of other players. It didn’t get to the root of the matter, however.

Continue reading…

Phillies’ Deal with Wandy Rodriguez Falls Through

Update (1/13/15, 4:10 PM EST: Rodriguez failed his physical with the Phillies and has signed with the Braves, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

Update (12/27/14, 5:50 PM EST): A source for CSN Philly confirms that the Phillies and Rodriguez have agreed to a minor league deal.

Per Phillies Spanish play-by-play broadcaster Angel Ibo Castillo, free agent pitcher Wandy Rodriguez is on his way to Philadelphia to take a physical. If all goes well, he’ll presumably ink a minor league deal with the Phillies. Castillo adds that Rodriguez is expected to compete for a spot in the starting rotation.

Continue reading…