Sure, it’s a minor trade, but it can’t hurt to be fully aware of what’s going in with the new member of the roster, Art Charles. Hell, I wrote almost 500 words on Ender Inciarte as soon as the Phillies pulled the trigger on him in the Rule 5 draft, so why should I get lazy now?
My baseball “career”, if that’s what you want to call it, started in what was a brand new Coca-Cola Park in Allentown, PA. The drive to work was 8 minutes from home. I interned, which means, “I did everything nobody else wanted to do.” Like vacuum. Little did I know that somewhere in one of the ballpark’s concession stands lurked someone as hungry as those to whom he was serving Pork Nachos. Someone who, like me, was deriving utility from work by looking over his shoulder every few minutes to see the field and getting lost for a moment before remembering to make sure the kids on the bouncy castle in left field weren’t wearing shoes.
That person is Hudson Belinsky, whose credentials are impressive before you consider his age and then, once you learn he’s not even old to toss back a Yuengling, make you feel like you’re…I don’t know….only reaching Double-A by 26. Most impressively, Hudson has already been offered internships with teams and has written things for Baseball Prospectus. Most relevantly, he’s composed a top 30 list for Lindy’s Phillies Annual, a project being spearheaded by Liz Roscher.
I’ve contacted Liz about plugging the book, which just went to press. Where to buy it, what’s all in it…that sort of stuff. She’s insanely busy right now and still needs to get some of that information herself, from Lindy’s. I’ll update this post when that information becomes available to me, but for now, I need to publish this talk I had with Hudson.
My conversation with him lasted nearly two hours and we covered, literally, the entire system. I omitted some things to a) make this piece more readable and b) so we didn’t usurp value from the Annual.
Nobody covers baseball below the Major League level more comprehensively than Baseball America. They have monopolized a niche few baseball fans find themselves obsessed enough to occupy. Even the most passionate seamheads, the ones who keep up with the prospects and minor leagues, often couldn’t care less about what was going on in the ACC over the weekend or who made the U18 national teams. It takes a special kind of goober to get excited about stuff like this, or spend an hour combing through lists like this for fun (Eric’s note: go look at #52 on the 1995 top 100. He was called “Bob”?) I am that goober.
If that’s too deep for you, you should be interested in the Prospect Handbook, an annual purchase I’ve made since my senior year in high school and something that I carry with me 75% of the time from March to November. Ask my fiancé.
I got in touch with Jim Callis about the Phillies list and he granted me permission to call him on the phone during working hours, a true honor. Callis is Baseball America’s prodigal son. He began work at BA straight out of college, left for STATS for a few years, then came back and is now BA’s Executive Editor. It’s good to be Jim Callis and it was even better to talk to him, if only for about a half an hour, while my homemade chocolate ice cream was turning in the background.
Eric: Jim? It’s Eric Longenhagen.
Jim: Hey, Eric, how’s it going.
Eric: Great, man. Thanks for taking the time to talk to me.
Jim: Happy to help out.
Eric: I wanna talk about this list
(Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10:
1. Jesse Biddle
2. Roman Quinn
3. Tommy Joseph
4. Jon Pettibone
5. Adam Morgan
6. Ethan Martin
7. Cody Asche
8. Maikel Franco
9. Darin Ruf
10. Carls Tocci)
and your relationship with the list. I know you’ve done interviews where BA’s lists are scrutinized or a player’s scouting report is questioned and you’re sort of forced to stand by a list that is not necessarily yours since you assign teams’ systems to each of your writers. Can you talk about what that’s like?
Jim: Sure. When the guys do the lists and finish them they get sent to me for editing. I try not to tinker with them too much because our guys have their own opinions and work hard to acquire the information they put in to the list.
Eric: Looking at Matt’s list for the Phillies, is there anything you’d do differently if you had carte blanche to alter the list?
Jim: Yeah, I think mine would be a tad different.
Eric: Let’s talk about Roman Quinn. I’m in the beginning of this process and already he seems like a polarizing guy. You guys had him all the way up at #2. What are your thoughts on Quinn and do you think he’ll develop physically and add the strength he’ll need to hit at the big league level?
Jim: I don’t think adding strength is a big deal for him because it’s not part of his game. This is a guy who’s going to do use his legs and put balls in play and make all sorts of things happen on the bases. He’s never, ever going to hit fifteen or twenty home runs. Even without that, I think there’s a useful player there. (Eric’s note: I really need to see Quinn. All of these different opinions bug me. Want to decide for myself)
Eric: What about the defense? You think he stays at shortstop?
Jim: I’m not too worried about him staying at short because even if it doesn’t work out, the fallback option is center field and that’s still so valuable. He played a lot of center field in high school.
Eric: Ahead of him you have Biddle. I want to know why you have Biddle at number one even though it seems you gave him the same projection as Adam Morgan and even John Pettibone. They’re all listed as #3 starters. What separates Biddle from those guys for you?
Jim: I think Biddle has better stuff than the other guys. He’s left handed, which matters. I know Morgan is, too, but then when you factor in age, the fact that Biddle is doing this sort of stuff and almost two years younger than Morgan…that’s a factor. And Biddle’s very safe for someone that young.
Eric: Speaking of Adam Morgan, I love him. From what I saw last year this guy looks like he has a chance to be a really nice mid-rotation starter. I’ve considered putting a list like this together and have thought about sticking him way up on my list. What do you think about his growth last year?
Jim: You know…it would be defensible to stick him at number one on this list. (Eric’s note: mostly unsolicited, this is the second time I’ve heard this exact phrase uttered by men who are way better at this than I am)
Eric: How do you guys go about compiling your lists? Is it your standard, “our writers see guys and have opinions that are supplemented by scouting contacts?”
Jim: Yeah. It’s an ongoing, year round process and even longer than that, really. We have a history of covering these kids back from when they were amateurs and that stuff lingers in our minds. We cover these guys all season and our thoughts about them build. We get stuff from teams about their own players and then go around sourcing all over. (Eric’s note: Interesting. It seems BA’s process draws info from a longer time period where as others seem to make a higher volume of calls when the time comes to make a list. BA might talk to a scout in June, write down what he says and use it months later when the time comes to make the list. Good? Bad? Needs more thought)
(Jim and I talk about college and high school baseball in the northeast for a little bit)
Eric: Oh, where would Trevor May be on this list if he were still in the organization?
Jim: That’s a good question. Let me pull up the list from before we he was traded and see
(Jim types some stuff into his computer)
Jim: Here it is. Matt had him at #6, between Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin. I am not a Trevor May fan and probably would have dropped him a bit once I got hold of the list.
Eric: Give me some names you think are going to bust out this year.
Jim: Dylan Cozens, who we sort of under estimated and Austin Wright (Eric’s note: That’s a new name.)
(thanking and good byes)
Before we wrap up, one thing I love about BA’s lists are the prospect superlatives they add on. They talk about things like, who in the system is the best defensive outfielder, who has the best curveball…that sort of stuff. I’ve included those along with my comments on each selection:
Best Hitter for Average: Cody Asche (Eric’s note: Steve Susdorf isn’t really a prospect, otherwise I’d stick him here)
Best Power Hitter: Darin Ruf (…….I guess. Who else would I go with? Larry Greene?)
Best Strikezone Discipline: Darin Ruf (I don’t care about walks, I care about production)
Fastest Baserunner: Roman Quinn (Quinn is the fastest man in all of baseball not named Billy Hamilton)
Best Athlete: Roman Quinn (The system is loaded with so many athletes. Aaron Altherr might be the fit here)
Best Fastball: Kenny Giles (Pure reliever, up to 98mph)
Best Curveball: Jesse Biddle (a potential legit 60 hook)
Best Slider: Adam Morgan (Yeah)
Best Changeup: Jon Pettibone (I’d have gone Morgan again)
Best Control: John Pettibone (No doubt)
Best Defensive Catcher: Sebastian Valle (Valle’s pop times aren’t spectacular but he’s one hell of a receiver)
Best defensive infielder: Cesar Hernandez (The fact that a second baseman takes this spot is really pretty sad)
Best infield arm: Maikel Franco (an easy one, some outside the Phils organization wanna see him catch and throw from behind the plate)
Best defensive OF: Tyson Gillies (a 70 runner, plays a legit CF)
Best outfield arm: Kyrell Hudson (an interesting name who I know little about)
Here’s a link to my other conversation(s) and our series primer: Aqui
Leading off our tour of Phillies Prospect coverage is Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Jason became the head of BP’s scouting staff when Kevin Goldstein was absconded away by Jeff Lunhow and his Hugh Grant eyes to join the Houston Astros. Jason is a skilled evaluator with an insatiable appetite for baseball. He enjoys a squeeze of citrus in his water. I can sit here and tell you how good Jason is at his job, how wonderfully realistic his assessments of talent are and how Jason’s content separates itself from the rest of the prospecting world because he’s simply the best and most unique pure writer of words we have. But perhaps the most ringing endorsement I can give Jason’s work is this: Whenever someone approaches me about how they can get into scouting and what they need to look for when evaluating talent, I refer them to Jason’s chapters in Baseball Prospectus’ 2012 book, Extra Innings. I can’t do better than those chapters so I won’t try.
I know an overwhelming number of our readers here probably already have subscriptions to BP. If you don’t, you need to head on over there and snatch one up. Even if you’re not sabermetrically inclined, the prospect coverage alone is already worth the small fee and is going to evolve into the most comprehensive public scouting database on Earth when the 2013 season starts. More on that in a bit. For now, enjoy my hour long talk with Jason which I transcribed to the best of my ability. Keep an eye out for my notes and links throughout.
Eric (via text)- I’ll call you in 15 minutes if that’s okay
Jason (via text)- I’m waiting in line for coffee, should be home in 15 minutes. Perfect.
15 minutes, 37 seconds later
(Jason and I engage in 20 seconds of small talk neither of us is particularly comfortable with)
Eric- Alright, let’s get into this. Why don’t you start by telling everyone about your new job and how it’s going?
Jason- It’s good. Different. Kevin’s (Goldstein) level of success gave me all sorts of freedom when he was still around. Our prospect coverage complimented one another and his presence gave me all sorts of freedom to write things like….faux fiction. Now there’s more structure to what I’m doing. I knew the direction I wanted to take things right away. I wanted to bring in more eyes and run things like an actual scouting department. (Eric’s note: He has. Several writers/evaluators across the country have joined BP to cover the minors this season. I’m curious to know what the output’s format will be for all this scouting data but it will certainly be exhaustive and ground breaking)
Eric- What does the Top 10 process entail?
Jason- I make a preliminary sketch of the top guys in the system and then make a list of guys I know within the industry who have coverage of that team. I make calls and work that information into the list. Then I’ll ask for contributions from the BP team about the top ten and ask for suggestions on players we think will get to the majors this year, or who might have a breakout season. I want as many sources as possible.
Eric- I want your thoughts on the Phillies philosophy on acquiring amateur talent. I know in the past you’ve said you really like what they do, but since then your writing has indicated a change in your stance on the pure, raw tool athletes the Phillies lust for every June.
Jason- My views have….refined on the Phillies tool heavy approach. It’s not that I’m no longer a fan of toolsy freak guys, I’m just no longer a fan of guys who don’t know how the hell to play baseball. I’ve given up on teaching the freak athlete how to play baseball because those guys just don’t develop. You have to see feel and instincts. If those things are lacking, the kid won’t bear fruit. I’m all for big tools as long as they show an aptitude for playing baseball as well.
Eric- One thing I find fascinating is an entire farm system’s worth of talent has been exported over the last half decade or so (since the Blanton trade) and nobody has made the Phillies regret trading them yet. Do you have thoughts on a cause to this or is this just some random stroke of luck?
Jason- Let me start by saying that no teams want kids they trade to fail. You draft and develop a relationship with these kids. You don’t send him away and hope he burns out or gets hurt. Sure, teams want to “win” these trades, whatever that means, but not at the expense of someone’s job or career. I think that gets lost on blogs. To answer your question, one reason things may have worked out like this is because teams are supposed to know their system better than anyone else. Only teams that see a prospect come to work every day can claim that his makeup is a known commodity. Makeup (Eric’s note: the definition of makeup throughout baseball is not uniform. Some will tell you lack of faith in a god is a sign of poor makeup, others couldn’t care less what you do at home as long as you strive to get better at baseball. Jason skews toward the latter) is an underrated part of this whole process and when you have a handle on that and other teams don’t, you have the upper hand. That’s not to say all prospects are traded because they have poor makeup. This thing with the Phillies is probably mostly luck, but the internal evaluation process is something to consider as well.
Eric- The one guy who was considered untouchable throughout that whole exile was Domonic Brown. This was a guy who (I proceed to crush on Domonic Brown) and no longer looks like that player. I’d like to know why.
Jason- I would also like to know why. People need to realize that the jump from Triple-A to the Major Leagues is insane. The level of competition is far and above what you see in Triple-A. You’re suddenly playing against much better players in bigger stadiums in front of many more people. Then, once you succeed at the major league level, your competition is going to adjust. Then you have to adjust. And then they’ll make more adjustments. This cycle continues for the rest of your career and some guys just can’t do that. This isn’t something you can simulate in the minor leagues. I don’t know why Brown hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations yet but that might be part of it. Others believe he still has a chance to be special. He is still quite young and I know teams were trying to get him thrown in to deals this winter in an effort to buy low.
Eric- I know in today’s online world we like to place the blame on something or someone, so is it fair to say that Brown hasn’t gotten to where we thought he would because of some combination of everything people have pointed to? All the stuff you mentioned, injuries, mishandling, luck, swing changes…?
Eric- Ok, let’s get into your list itself
(Eric’s note: Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 Phillies Prospects
1. Jesse Biddle
2. Maikel Franco
3. Adam Morgan
4. Roman Quinn
5. Tommy Joseph
6. Ethan Martin
7. Cody Asche
8. John Pettibone
9. Carlos Tocci
10. Shane Watson)
and talk about Jesse Biddle, who’ll likely be the number one guy on everyone’s list this year. Give me your assessment of Biddle and touch on the strange fluctuations in velocity he tends to suffer from. Is that an incedental side effect of his development from a once a week high school pitcher in the short scheduled Northeast to a full time ballplayer? Or is that something we should be concerned about long term?
Jason- Biddle certainly isn’t your ideal type of #1 prospect and he does have a lot of warts on him already. As far as the velo concerns go, I think saying it’s due to growing pains is a convenient excuse. I’m not sure it’s okay to think that after Biddle has been in pro ball this long. His delivery is clean, but whatever relationship he has with the ball, his explosiveness and intensity, is lost at times. Once he completely grows into his body, maybe it’ll stick. If he can pitch at 90-93mph or maybe a little lower if he can learn to manipulate the ball and add movement, I think it’ll work at the Major League level. He’s got a mid-rotation ceiling. Not sexy.
Eric- Talk me through why Maikel Franco is so high on your list.
Jason- He has crazy bat speed. His hands are explosive. The reports I got on him were better than he looked when I saw him. For instance, I don’t think he sticks at third base. He’s too thick and slow in the lower half to confidently project at third. Maybe right field is an option since you’d hate to waste the arm at first. People outside the Phillies organization would like to see him move behind the plate. That’s a difficult move for anyone to make at this stage in the game, especially when you also want this guy to be a high end hitter. There’s just not enough time to work on all that stuff. Franco plays too fast at times. He needs to slow down. He loves to swing, the approach needs some serious work.
Eric- Do you think coaches can deploy developmental tools to help him improve his approach or is that just something some players have and others do not?
Jason- I think a coach can aid development with the approach but can’t assist with pitch recognition, which I think is an inherent thing that seriously influences the quality of one’s approach.
Eric- You’ve got Adam Morgan next on your list. I’m quite taken by him. Do you think he sustains the success he found last season?
Jason- Something concerns me about Morgan and slider pitchers in general. (Eric’s note: I am of the mind that Morgan’s best secondary pitch is his changeup, not his slider. I am in the minority on this) Bad sliders are home run pitches. If Morgan’s fastball isn’t working for him, if he’s not locating it or it doesn’t quite have the juice it needs, he becomes over reliant on his slider. His changeup comes and goes.
Eric- I actually like the changeup better. Wouldn’t hesitate putting a 6 on it in each of the times I saw him. I’ve kicked around the idea of doing a list myself and am not sure how high I’m going to stick Morgan. Could go as high as #2.
Jason- Well then let me ask you this. Based on what we both think about Biddle and the pitcher he is and the pitcher he might become and what you’ve just told me you think about Morgan, why couldn’t you go and put Morgan at #1?
Eric- Well, (redacted because I don’t want to give away my rankings) and….I know I shouldn’t care about this but I do…I don’t want people to think I did it just to be different. I know I should just evaluate the player, have an objective opinion about him and that’s it, but I know if I see something fishy on someone else’s list, I tend to wonder if they did what they did primarily for attention. I don’t want that to happen.
Jason- Sure, but you could justify it. There’s enough evidence and room for subjectivity for you to stick Morgan at #1 in a bad system and totally justify it. Now, if someone put Roman Quinn at the top of their list, then THAT would be someone I’d point at and say, “this person wants attention.”
Eric- Good, I’m glad you brought him up because we need to talk about him and an overarching issue the public seems to have with overvaluing speed. Do you think we see speed, that tangible, sexy tool, and forget about more important aspects of a player’s profile? Especially in a system like this where plus-plus tools are in short supply, do we see an 80 tool and fall in love even though the rest of the player isn’t all that good?
Jason- Speed clouds judgment. Having a catalytic tool like speed causes people to think you’re going to do the things you’re doing now all the way up through the major leagues. The ways he gets on base, the way he gets extra base hits….those sorts of opportunities don’t come around very often in the Majors. Sure, he’ll put pressure on infielders, but what MLB infielder is used to fielding a ball cleanly and throwing out fast guys at first base? How often do big league outfielders misplay a ball so badly that even the fastest of runners can stretch a double? It doesn’t happen. This is the fastest player in baseball not named Billy Hamilton and I don’t think it’s going to matter. I was one of the few that didn’t buy into Dee Gordon. Sure he’s a total burner and he’s good enough to play shortstop, but you have to hit. You have to have the strength to hit and control a baseball bat. Quinn is going to have to develop that strength and that’s a really hard thing to do.
Eric- What about the defense, do you think he sticks at short?
Jason- If they’re in A-ball and you’re questioning the defense already, they’re probably going to have to move. His hands and actions need serious improvement if he wants to stay at short.
Eric- Let’s discuss guys that are a long ways away. Gabriel Lino (Eric’s notes: acquired for Jim Thome this past season). Any chance the bat develops enough for him to be a backup? I know the tools are loud.
Jason- Yeah…it’s not gonna work. Lino is big and strong. The build is strong. He has impressive catch and throw skills and the raw pop is awesome, but you only see it at 5 o’clock. He needs to hit. I just don’t think he’s going to.
Eric- Andrew Pullin, go.
Jason- Ah yes, when I started making calls Pullin’s name started popping up. He’s sort of a weird guy. The bat is interesting but his entire status as a prospect totally depends on whether he can successfully convert to second base. There’s not enough bat for a corner outfield spot. Watch for the defense, it’s key.
Eric- I guess we sorta need to talk about Darin Ruf. When he had that August and interest in him really exploded, it seemed questions were directed at everyone but you. I want your thoughts on Ruf.
Jason- I understand the excitement. We’ve seen it before when a guy who’s just an org guy or a four-A guy has a stretch where he just goes apeshit. People assume that because this guy is doing this at Double-A that he’s close enough to the majors that it’ll translate and he’s just going to keep mashing. You can’t Ruf has a ton of raw strength, just bull, country, lift balls out all over the place strength….but it’s just not gonna happen at the big league level. We had some discussion amongst the scouting staff at BP about putting him in the back half of our top 10 because some think he’s a platoon bat. There’s value in a platoon bat and some argued that value and, more importantly, the certainty of that value compared to the high risk involved with the young players we ended up with at #9 and #10 meant we should include Ruf. I’ve dealt with l angry comments because we didn’t.
Eric- Let’s do some rapid fire, one sentence evals. Dylan Cozens.
Jason- Got some love. Was a candidate to be in our “on the Rise” section.
Eric- Jake Diekman?
Jason- Got some love there, too. If he can command that plus-plus velocity then he can pitch in more than just a specialist role. Righties do pick it up early though because the arm slot is so low.
Eric- Larry Greene?
Jason- I’m not a fan of the bat speed. I’ve had some say he has slider bat speed. He’s a first -base-only guy.
Eric- Kelly Dugan
Jason- No love
I then thanked Jason for spending over an hour on the phone with me, we talked for five more minutes and then I went to play darts with my future brother-in-law. Up next in our prospect conversations series: Baseball America’s Jim Callis.
You people love lists and rankings. It’s why Bleacher Report has become the McDonalds of sports blogs. It’s why Forbes has as many slideshows on their website as they do actual business news and I bet you can you can guess which Maxim issue sells the most copies each year. Prospect lists are no different. These lists garner clickage with extreme prejudice. While they’re often misleading and almost immediately obsolete, top prospect lists are actually footed in reality. Major League organizations have their own lists on hand (and look at lists compiled by the more respected outlets to see how the industry perceives certain players) should a situation arise in which rapid decision making is of the essence. It is for this reason that I recently considered compiling such a list for Crashburn Alley. You probably want a list, and the legitimacy of such rankings combined with the eyes it would bring to Bill’s site leave it too enticing to pass up. So I’ll be doing a list of yet-to-be-determined length.
But I’m going to do it the right way, a way that provides you with a bevy of information and opinion about the Phillies farm system from several people whose careers are dedicated to pondering such issues.
Over the next several weeks I hope to bring you conversations with some of the industry’s most esteemed independent talent evaluators and information hubs. Voices from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and our mothership at ESPN are all actively engaging with me about participating in this activity. We will discuss the author’s top 10 (or 20 or 30 or however many) Phillies prospects, the methods they used to compile this list, the individuals that lie therein as well as some other aspects of the organization. I want to use this little, inconsequential late night post to act as a little primer (which it has) and, eventually, a convenient hub that will house links to all of these discussions in one location.
The Phillies have made trade after trade over the last five years, sending hoards of prospects out to be developed by other organizations in exchange for established veteran pieces. When a franchise sacrifices well regarded players of tomorrow to aid today’s quest for glory, you can’t help but expect some of the kids to blossom into studs and make you pay for discarding them, especially when the prospect exodus reaches Gillick/Amaro altitudes. Strangely, this hasn’t even come close to happening to the Phillies yet. From Josh Outman to Anthony Gose, no former Phillies farm hand (I’m not counting re-treads like Ryan Vogelsong or Travis Blackley, just prospects) has done anything so impressive that we’re daydreaming about them in a Phillies uniform. Certainly, none of them have made their way directly into the flight path of your beloved franchise.
Now, both those things seem like they may happen at once.
Travis d’Arnaud is a New York Met, and while one player a franchise does not make, you’re about to see the young man that was the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal (trust me, it was never Kyle Drabek) 19 times a year. Let’s talk about how much that’s going to suck for a minute.
D’Arnaud is a very interesting prospect because he personifies positional scarcity. There’s nothing overwhelmingly impressive about his skill set. The bat grades out as average right now with some room to grow (I’d really like to see him simplify his set-up, especially by ditching the high leg kick) and I’ve had more than one source put a 6 on the power (I’d go 55, but we’re splitting hairs a bit there) thanks to great leverage in the swing and terrific hip roation. That’s a nice little start but it doesn’t scream “franchise altering bat.” Then you factor in d’Arnaud’s ability to catch, catch really well, throw well and that you project his body to stay behind the plate forever and suddenly we’re looking at one of baseball’s most intriguing prospects. Up the middle talent is hard enough to unearth. This is an up the middle player that shows you four average or better tools right now and still has some developing to do.
Yes, d’Arnaud has had injuries left and right. They all seem to be freak occurrences. It’s not something that I’d be overly concerned about at the moment. It’s a possibility that d’Arnaud possesses a fragility as general and well rounded as his skill set. I’d have only minor reservations about acquiring him.
When you head on over to the fangraphs leaderboards to look at catchers who wield an arsenal of skills as deep a d’Arnaud, you’re not going to find anyone who’s worth less than 3 annual WAR. This is a special player who I think is going to make some All Star rosters and maybe accrue some even more prestigious accolades if he has an outlier year or two in his prime. The jump from Triple-A to MLB is jarring, so I don’t expect him to make you jealous right away. But damn if I don’t think Travis d’Arnaud is gonna get sexy on us.
Lisalverto Bonilla. That would have been fun to say seventy times a season for the next half dozen years. Instead, the diminutive Dominican is taking his interesting prospect profile and Grade-A moniker to the Texas Rangers system as part of the Michael Young trade. While all sorts of hullabaloo (I had to spell check “hullabaloo”) has been focused on what the Phillies might be able to get out of Young, I’d like to poke my head into the discussion and educate everyone about what the Phillies gave up. For me, Bonilla is the principle return in the deal because Lindblom’s fly ball rates terrify me. I have a feeling that the fat kid who always seems to be the first one in the batter’s eye in Arlington will add a few souvenirs to his collection courtesy of Lindblom’s fastball. I’ll be quick here, since the guy isn’t going to be playing for the team you root for anymore.
Lisalverto Bonilla is a 22 year old Dominican righty who stands an unimpressive 6’1” and weighs in at a slender 164lbs. He really accelerates his arm well, though it comes through late and his mechanics are difficult to repeat. Bonilla’s frame is small enough that evaluators have concern about his ability to hold up under a starter’s workload. The Phillies (who are hard pressed to give up on anyone as a starter until they absolutely have to, which I love) conceded this and moved Bonilla into the bullpen for the 2012 season.
Bonilla’s repertoire is interesting enough that Texas, a franchise that is not interested in babying pitchers, may try to move him back to the rotation and see how things shake out. Bonilla pitches with a fastball in the low 90s that I’ve seen touch 94mph but reports say he’s kissed higher. Bonilla compliments that with a changeup that is comfortably plus. He maintains his arms speed and generates terrific action on the pitch. He’ll get swings and misses with it in the big leagues. Third pitch status belongs to a mediocre (that might be generous) slider. It will flash average but not consistently so. That would need an uptick if Bonilla was going to have any chance to transition into a rotation.
More than likely, Bonilla is going to fit nicely in a middle relief role in Texas after another year and change in the minors. He’s pitched well in the in pro ball to this point and would have represented the Phillies in the Futures Game this past season if he hadn’t sustained a…uh….self inflicted hand injury the night….er…a…morning before the game. It was reported that he was “rough housing.” The only concerns I have are that he struggles to throw strikes due to the delivery and maybe has issues generating downhill plane which could lead to lots of flyballs in a home park that doesn’t forgive that sort of thing.. He’s a nice little arm, one of about eight the Phillies have from Double-A on up who’d still need to pay an underage fee to rent a car. They traded from surplus. Not a huge loss.
The Phillies made a Rule 5 pick today, selecting left-handed hitting and throwing outfielder, Ender Inciarte, from the Arizona Diamondbacks. I had no idea who the hell that was. Alas, I promised to write up whomever the Phillies were to select. So, I have for you a little diddy on Inciarte based on the opinions of a few sources (some public, some private) and a little derived from what I could surmise via video I found online.
Ender Inciarte is a 21 year-old Venezuelan outfielder with some interesting tools but potentially crippling deficiencies. Mostly, at just 5’11″ and 160lbs, he’s limited by a small frame that doesn’t produce any power. He is not strong with that bat at all. It often looks as though a good fastball will knock the bat out of his hands. This is not only an issue for power but also creates problems with making strong, line drive contact that, you know, produces base hits. Whether or not there’s projection left in the body (the ability to add strength may help him overcome that stuff) remains to be seen. I’ve got to see Inciarte in person to evaluate that to my liking. His lack of physicality also plays a role in his ability to get on base at the highest of stage of competition. Sure, Inciarte posted an impressive .376 OBP between two levels last year, but he’s now thrust into the Major Leagues. Big league arms aren’t going to pitch around the guy with 20 raw power. They’re going to attack him with strikes. Less balls to take means less walks and more putting the ball in play, weakly, which means more outs.
Defensively is where Inciarte shines. He covers a ton of ground thanks to plus legs and reports I’m getting say he’s got enough raw ability with the glove to stick in CF. I got conflicting reports about the refinement of his skills out there, however. Those legs will come in handy on the bases, too. I don’t like minor league numbers at all, especially at the low levels where Inciarte spent 2012, but he stole 46 bases in 58 tries last year. That’s about an 80% success rate.
Now the question is, “will he stick?” Remember, Rule 5 rules state that the player has to be placed on your 25 man roster for the duration of the season, lest he be returned to his original club. There are ways to circumvent that rule. Inciarte could “get hurt” at some point and have nice, long periods of rehab in the minors like Lendy Castillo did last year. If the Phillies have room to stash Inciarte on the active roster as a defensive replacement for the entire 2013 season, then send him back to the minors to see if the bat develops, that’s just fine. With the news that just broke regarding Ben Revere, I’m not sure it’ll happen. There are tools with which to work. I’ll be watching.
I just looked up Phillies third basemen on Baseball Reference to see when they last had one who performed at an above average offensive clip. I had to go back to my freshman year of high school, to David Bell’s 107 OPS+ in 2004, before I was comfortable anointing him. If you visit this site regularly you’ve been saturated with recent discussion regarding the Phillies situation at the hot corner. Offensive futility has reigned supreme at third base for nearly a decade now. While it was certainly fun watching Pedro Feliz play gorgeous defense there for a few years and Placido Polanco has been likeable, if demure, in various facets of seamdom, we justifiably want more from that position.
We’ve examined external options via trade and free agency but only in passing/comments have we mentioned what some may now feel is an internal option at third base, if not now, in the near future. That option is Cody Asche. I saw plenty of Asche in Reading during the second half of this year but waited on writing up a formal report on him when I heard he had been assigned to the Arizona Fall League. I wanted to see if any notable development would occur after new instructors from other teams got a hold of him for a month. After another handful of my own evaluations and some talks with people who get paid to have an opinion on baseball players, I can present to you an ironclad assessment of what Cody Asche is and what he might be.
The first thing I look at when evaluating a player is his physical composition. What does the body look like now and what will it look like in three, six and nine years from now? Asche has an average body with no notable physical limitations (he’s not fat or hurt) and no exceptionalities (he’s not built like Yeonis Cespedes, either). He has skinny forearms which contribute to a lack of raw power (which we’ll talk about later). He has little to no physical projection remaining, unless he decides to eat his way out of baseball. A rather uninteresting physique.
Asche’s bat, on the other hand, is quite interesting. He’s limited by below average power, but he should make plenty of contact. It all comes from incredibly sound hitting mechanics. Asche displays quiet feet, quick hands that explode forward from a good hitting position and a bat path conducive of contact. He’ll spray balls all over the field and should gap quite a few doubles. My ESPN colleague, Keith Law, has stated that Asche is loading his hands deeper than he was in college which opened up the possibility for Asche to hit for more pop, even if it’s modest pop. It all boils down to a slightly above average hit tool and below average power. The below average power could harm his on-base skills in the majors as pitchers challenge him, unafraid of Asche doing any real damage on his own.
Asche’s defense at third base was the main hang up for me whilst watching him this season. He looked so terrible at times that I thought working him in both outfield corners and at first base for the next two years was the best course of action, hoping he could become a useful, four corners bench bat. He showed marked improvements in Arizona. Asche will now comfortably make routine plays and exhibits confidence attacking softly hit balls in on the grass. He wasn’t doing these things during the summer. He has a fringy arm, at best, and his hands aren’t soft enough to cleanly field well struck balls, even when they’re hit right at him. He’s still not good over there, but he’s now passable. Asche is also a below average runner, timed between 4.34 and 4.27 from home to first.
To recap, the tools look like this:
It’s the profile of a below average regular but keep in mind these things don’t occur in a vacuum. The Phillies scored plenty of runs with Abraham Nunez suiting up at third base almost every day so Asche might just have to be a reasonably un-embarrassing fallback option. It’s not a sexy OFP, it’s not an exciting profile to put together, but this is the job. I’d send Asche back to Double-A to start 2013 and move him to the Lehigh Valley if he keeps hitting. He could see a cup of coffee in September or earlier if injuries force him up.
Since we’re lite on content right now because there’s so little happening in the world of Phillies baseball, I’ll keep churning out my notes on Phillies prospects from this past season. Today I want to bring your attention to someone you may not know much about, the player who raised his stock more than anyone else in the organization this season, left handed pitcher Adam Morgan.
Adam Morgan didn’t come into the 2012 season with much heat on him at all. He wasn’t on Keith Law’s organizational top ten, he wasn’t on Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock top twenty and he barely made it on to Baseball America’s top thirty, sneaking onto the Phillies’ list at number twenty nine, seven spots behind his Crimson Tide rotation mate, Austin Hyatt. Something changed. No longer is Morgan, a third rounder from the 2011 draft, being described as a “soft tossing, command and control guy.” He started missing bats, more than one per inning, and forced his way up from Clearwater into a really fun, prospect laden rotation at Double-A Reading where he was just 45 minutes away from me for 2012′s home stretch.
What was cool about the first scouting trip I took to see Morgan was the clean slate on which I could conduct my analysis. I didn’t accidentally stumble upon any opinions or reports on Morgan because there just weren’t any yet, and I didn’t actively seek any out before I saw him because I wanted to be surprised, uncontaminated by anyone else’s ideas. I hopped in the car not knowing if Adam Morgan was right handed, short, fat, black, handsome, blonde or cross eyed. It made me all the more excited to see him and drink everything in from scratch.
The twenty two year old Morgan is not a jaw dropping physical specimen. He’s in fine shape, but his 6’1” frame offers no positive projection. What you see is what you’re going to get for several years. If Morgan’s physique is going to change, it will change horizontally. Let’s hope it does not because sometimes guys who gain weight have a hard time maintain the athleticism in their delivery, which right now for Morgan is just fine. Morgan lands hard on a stiff front leg and there’s a little bit of effort as he fires but nothing is so violent that I’m concerned about repeatability or sustainable health. You can see the torque Morgan generates with his hips during delivery when you observe him from the side. It’s beautiful. These sound mechanics help produce above average control and average command of a slightly above average fastball (I’ll put a 55 on it, 89-92mph) that plays up thanks to terrific movement. That movement, however, is inconsistent and Morgan’s heater will get flat and straight at times while it dances at others. His somewhat diminutive stature prevents him from getting natural downhill plane on his fastball which he leaves up more than you’d like. He got away with it while I was in attendance because, hey, it’s Double-A, but that won’t fly in the big leagues and Morgan will have to continue to hone in on the lower third of the zone to avoid becoming homer prone.
The fastball is complimented by a plus changeup (60 but flashed even better three or four times), a true swing and miss pitch which made Double-A hitters look both uncomfortable and ridiculous. It is clear this is where Morgan has made strides this year as his changeup was previously just a footnote on his scouting report. The pitch sits in the upper 70s with lots of fade and action and, most importantly, Morgan maintains his fastball’s arm speed when he throws it. It’s a weapon that I think will miss some bats in the big leagues one day.
Morgan has two breaking balls, a slider and a curve. The two can overlap a little (both in shape and velocity) but the hook (30) will usually sit mid to upper 70s while the slider (45), which I like much better, hangs out in the low 80s. Further development of one of these pitches is crucial to Morgan’s future. He has an idea what to do with the slider, getting some swings and misses with some back foot work against righties, but it needs refining and I’d like to see him pitch backwards with it later in his starts to get ahead of hitters with something new.
I think the Phillies have stumbled upon a nice backend starter who has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation guy if he improves on his current deficiencies. Stick a feather in the cap of the Phillies’ player development staff.