On Monday afternoon, the Phillies signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a major league deal. Not long after that news broke, they also signed pitcher J.C. Gutierrez to a minor league deal. Not exactly headline-grabbing news on the day of the MLB draft, in which the Phillies will pick 10th in the first round.
It’s been a kind of Magic Eight Ball draft season for the Phillies, who pick number 10 tonight. We heard Vanderbilt RHP Walker Buehler’s name at that pick a couple times, mostly a couple weeks ago now, and that’s tapered off as his stock slips a little into the mid-teens. We’ve more recently been hearing the Phils like Tyler Stevenson, a catcher from Kennesaw Mountain HS in Georgia, or maybe a college bat (Cincinnati 2B/CF Ian Happ has been mentioned, and Scout.com still has him as The Phils pick as of their last mock). But the rumblings started last night when FanGraphs Kiley McDaniel (@KileyMcD) tweeted that several lower names could be picked in the Top 10 based on signability issues.
Teams making signability calls on backup/underslot options. I'm told Kevin Newman, Ke'Bryan Hayes & Trenton Clark could go in top 10 as such
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) June 8, 2015
Then this morning, for the first time, we have mock drafts with a player from the seven or eight guys at the top of most boards available when the Phils pick tonight. That someone is Kyle Tucker. BA’s John Manuel and MLB.com‘s Jon Mayo and Jim Callis all have the Plant HS (FL) OF falling to the Phils. For the record, I would be totally fine with that turn of events. (FYI – McDaniel has yet to release his final mock, though follow him on Twitter and I’m sure you’ll hear about it this afternoon, and since publishing this post, Keith Law put his Insider Mock up at ESPN with Tucker the pick as well).
Maikel Franco has only logged 21 games thus far this season, but he’s made the most of it even with an ugly 2-for-27 stretch in the final week of May. He homered in three of four games to open the month of June, contributing to two comeback wins against the Cincinnati Reds. Those two contributions, plus one earlier in the year in Colorado against the Rockies, have him taking up three of the top-six spots for the biggest contributions in terms of Win Percent Added (WPA).
WPA, simply put, tells you how much a player contributed to his team’s odds of winning. It can be used for a singular play or for contributions across an entire game or any select period of time. The aforementioned list references total game contributions:
When one enters a baseball season with a #2-5 rotation that includes Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, Sean O’Sullivan, and — eventually — Chad Billingsley, one can expect a lot of poor ballgames. Add in that the outfield included veteran retreads in Jeff Francoeur and Grady Sizemore, and… woof. It was going to be a rough (pun not intended) season to watch.
But that hasn’t been the case this year. The Phillies, after dropping Friday night’s game to the San Francisco Giants 5-4, have won or lost by one run in 17 of 56 games (30 percent). They rallied late to win against the Cincinnati Reds on June 2 and 3, including erasing a four-run deficit against flamethrowing left-hander Aroldis Chapman.
I have been mulling over my stance on the Designated Hitter for a while, and hashing it out on Twitter with other diehard types leads to some good discussion. I always stall on one thing that’s too long to describe in 140 characters: Pitchers hitting is completely absurd in comparison to other sports. It’s its success in spite of that absurdity that I think draws so many people to keeping the DH out of the National League. But the charming 13 out of 100 successes NL pitchers enjoy in order to maintain an OBP of .133 thus far in 2015 is not enough for me. American League DHs average a .332 OBP. That’s significantly better (I did the math in my head) and more fun to watch than mostly hoping for a stroke of luck. Continue reading…
Just nineteen days ago, Freddy Galvis was hitting .355/.414/.413 leading some to speculate that he’d be the Phillies representative at the All-Star Game in Cincinnati next month. Since that high point, the bottom has fallen out. He’s batting .125/.155/.143 in his last 13 games while striking out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances and drawing just two walks. While it may have been predictable that a player who entered the season with a career .621 OPS was unlikely to maintain an .800+ OPS, the rapidity of the regression has been painful to watch. Was the New Freddy Galvis of the first six weeks of the 2015 season a complete mirage? Is the Old Freddy Galvis back? What can we expect going forward?
Over at The Good Phight, John Stolnis looked at second baseman Chase Utley‘s recent surge, which was propelled his batting average over the Mendoza line, something that was merely an acid-induced hallucination when he was hitting .099 as recently as May 8. As High Heat Stats noted on Twitter, Utley is hitting .342/.415/.493 over his last 22 games. Pretty good.
Stolnis digs a bit deeper into the numbers, finding that Utley has been swinging and missing less and making better contact with baseballs. Certainly, these are things that have positively contributed to Utley’s success. However, I respectfully disagree with Stolnis saying that Utley “is back” (ostensibly to his old self) with a three-week hot streak.
Leading into the season, the pros and cons of the Phillies holding onto Cole Hamels were hotly debated. On the one hand, he was (and still is) the only player who can bring the Phillies the type of return to send the rebuilding mode into overdrive. On the other hand, holding onto Hamels and letting him pitch for four months as opposed to dealing him anytime between November and mid-February reduces the risk that Hamels suffers an injury, cutting his trade value to nil temporarily and minimizing it significantly over the long-term.
GM Ruben Amaro‘s reported demands for Hamels were scoffed at, becoming a punchline among fans and pundits alike. Outfielder Mookie Betts or catcher Blake Swihart were must-haves in any suggested deal, but the Boston Red Sox put both on their list of untouchable prospects. They added outfielder Manuel Margot and, recently, pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. Which is funny because the 22-28 Red Sox boast the American League’s worst starting rotation ERA at 5.05. And that’s only the start of how any leverage they imagined having has vanished.
All it took was one glance at the umpire assignments for Friday night’s game between the Phillies and the Rockies to know there was a very real possibility the men in blue would manufacture controversy at some point this weekend. For inexplicable reasons, the powers that be opted to put two of Major League Baseball’s most notorious umpires, Angel Hernandez and Scott Barry, on the same umpiring crew. The crew, known officially as Crew C, is in Philadelphia this weekend and last night Hernandez was behind the plate while Barry breathed the same air as his one time nemesis, Ryan Howard, at first base. The stage was set for fireworks and the ultimately inevitable show arrived in the 8th inning.
The start of June has typically signaled the start of promotion season in Minor League baseball. Two months at a level is a pretty good benchmark for many guys – everyday players are generally approaching 200 PAs, starting pitchers have 8-10 starts under their belts, and relievers are often 25+ innings into their campaigns. And mid-month is the draft, the end of Extended Spring Training, the start of short season/rookie leagues, and the mid-point of the five month full-season leagues. So lots of opportunity for movement.
In many cases, what it amounts to is an organizational question, not necessarily a prospect question. Some of the guys mentioned below are not really “prospects” in the sense that you look at them to have an impact on the big club in the future. But don’t discount them all; the players who surprise from the rank and file, the non-prospects, are often the same guys having big seasons like those organizational guys I mention below.
Lehigh Valley (AAA) – Aside from thinking it’s a waste to have Dom Brown spending time at AAA when we need to see if he can do anything at MLB, I don’t see much going on at AAA that would warrant a promotion. Continue reading…