Yacksel Rios Has Continued To Grow In His Major League Time

Yacksel Rios has been in the Phillies system for a long time for a player dancing on the outside of being an actual prospect. The Phillies drafted him at 17 out of a Puerto Rican high school in 2011. He didn’t reach full season ball until 2014, and was still starting sometimes all the way through 2016. He spent some time as projectable loose armed work in progress, some time as a hard thrower with no clue what he was doing, and then finally last year things seemed to come together. With Reading, Rios was sitting 93-97 and flashing a good slider. A mid season injury robbed him of time and some velocity. The Phillies still saw fit to promote him to the majors in September rather than lose him in the fall to minor league free agency. He was ok for a rookie reliever, sitting more 92-96 and having trouble with his command. Continue reading…

Crawford to the DL Opens Up Playing Time At a High Cost

Over the weekend, J.P. Crawford made a relay throw and lost feeling in his arm. For now he is on the disabled list with a forearm strain. We should know in the next few days how long Crawford will be out for. For now Scott Kingery will be the starting shortstop and Maikel Franco will see more time at third base than he has.  Coming into the season, it was said by many that the Phillies playing time issues would likely be solved by an injury, and while we all expected it, seeing one of the Phillies top prospects go down. Continue reading…

Luis Garcia Has Become the Phillies Bullpen Workhorse

Luis Garcia was a great story back in 2013. He was a 26 year old who had been out of affiliated baseball for 2 full seasons, had barely pitched above low-A, and was working as a barber. After destroying three levels of the Phillies’ system, Garcia reached the majors in July. He had a hard fastball and nowhere to throw it. He would spent 2014 for the most part in Lehigh Valley, winning the Paul Owens Award in a weak farm system. His 2015 season would yield major league success, but also a bunch of walks and inconsistent game to game results. In 2016 he posted an ERA over 6 in the majors in 15.1 innings, and spent most of the year in AAA. When the Phillies faced a 40 man roster crunch in the fall of 2016, it looked like Garcia and Adam Morgan were on the outside. The Phillies kept Garcia, citing his new splitter and their lack of major league ready relief depth. He pitched in 5 games for the Phillies in April before being in AAA until May. Garcia has been in the majors since. Continue reading…

21 Games In; (Re)Visiting Two Early Storylines

With today’s 3-2 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Phillies have now played 21 games in 2018, which means we are somehow already through about an eighth of the season.  Hard to believe, Harry.

At 8-2 in their last 10 games and 13-3 since their embarrassing showings vs. Atlanta and New York to start the season, there are few teams in baseball hotter than the Phillies.  Now, with almost a month’s worth of games on record, let’s look at a pair of the key Phillies storylines from Spring Training and the early regular season. Continue reading…

With the Rotation Doing Fine, The Phillies Need To Reevaluate Their Bullpen

The Phillies starting rotation has not been dominant this season on a whole. They have had a few dominant starts, like Jake Arrieta last night, but they haven’t been truly lights out, especially when you account for their level of competition. Their starters have the 5th best ERA in baseball at 3.14, but once again they have yet to really face an offensive power house. Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez have been very good and Jake Arrieta seems to have finally finished with the warmup portion of his year. Aaron Nola is still not missing bats at a high rate, but he has a dominant start under his belt and a 2.22 ERA. If all of that holds, the Phillies have an above average rotation with some upside for a bit more. Early in the offseason the Phillies built a bullpen to withstand a bad rotation. At the time they didn’t have Jake Arrieta and Velasquez and Pivetta were huge question marks, as was the now injured Jerad Eickhoff. They expected to manage short outings from their rotation, signing Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to bolster 7th and 8th innings, and building a team to handle a 8 man bullpen. Continue reading…

Phillies Need to Continue Feasting On Bad Teams In Weak Early Schedule

After a 1-4 start to the season, the Phillies have won 8 of their last 9 games. At 9-5 they have one of the best records in baseball, but I don’t think anyone would argue that they are one of the best teams in baseball. After 14 games of the season it seems a bit much to say that a series against the Atlanta Braves is important, but as the Phillies head back to Atlanta they face 3 fairly important games for a mid-April tilt.

It is fairly obvious why the Phillies record is where it is. They lost 2 of 3 games to the Braves in a series with some bad breaks, bad management, and some disastrous pitching from Vince Velasquez. They lost two close games to a Mets team playing out of its mind. Then they just got done cleaning up against three of the five worst teams in baseball. There is nothing fluky about the Phillies having 9 wins, but there is also nothing predictive. The Phillies are at minimum in baseball’s vast mediocrity and not among it’s crap, they are better than the clearly tanking and the inept. They are also not an elite team who is going to win when they make mistakes. Continue reading…

Crash Bag #6: The Young Guys Might be Fine

Sorry for not writing much. I don’t have any excuses, so here is your questions answered.

@andrewrnnier: Can they continue to find at bats for everyone/does the early success of Cesar make him more appealing in a trade thereby freeing up regular at bats for kingery

@andrewrnnier: I guess the better question should have been, given the contract extension and number of at bats Kingery has gotten in the first two weeks, what are the long term ramifications? Is he truly going to be a super utility who plays 4-5 times a week until Cesar moves on?

@DoctorSchoppe: How’s your gut feeling on Caesar holding up in this young season? How about we let em play. JP has the glove to be an everyday regular and his floor is above Galvis. Next question. #philliestalk

I am just going to combine these all kind of together. I think they can continue to balance the playing time. We have already seen guys get hot, guys get cold, and we have yet to see anyone get injured. Odds are at some point that someone is going to get banged up, at which point having their current depth will make the loss much less painful. Continue reading…

The Phillies Aren’t Hitting Relievers

The Phillies are currently 3-5 and coming off a bit of a downer of a 3rd game in their series with the Marlins. In the final game of the series the Phillies repeated a pattern that they have had in many of their games this season. After scoring three runs early in the game, the Phillies managed 1 hit over the final 6 innings. When the Phillies bullpen faltered, the offense could not muster any runs to hold off defeat.

On the year the Phillies are hitting .278/.380/.474 off of starting pitchers. In 160 plate appearances they have 22 walks to 36 strikeouts. Now much of this is boosted by Saturday’s destruction of the Marlins, but the Phillies also knocked Noah Syndergaard out of the game early in their series vs the Mets before being unable to muster anything against the bullpen. Early in games the Phillies have been grinding at bats, and drawing walks. Last in games they have been having strikeouts and an inability to sustain offense. The results has been outcomes like this.

1st inning: .333/.439/.545 7 BB 10 K
2nd inning: .214/.290/.357 3 BB 11 K
3rd inning: .353/.439/.529 6 BB 6 K
4th inning: .324/.425/.529 6 BB 8 K
5th inning .115/.207/.346 3 BB 6 K
6th inning: .281/.415/.438 7 BB 11 K
7th inning: .115/.148/.346 1 BB 10 K
8th inning: .111/.172/.148 2 BB 11 K
9th inning: .150/.292/.150 4 BB 7 K

Now we are talking about sub 30 PA sample sizes and unsutainably low BABIPs in the late innings and unsustainably high BABIPs in the early innings. Based on luck alone, the Phillies should get a hit off a reliever at some point this season. For now, the numbers match the eye test, which is the Phillies just not doing much of anything against bullpens this year.

 

The Many Sides of Pulling Aaron Nola Early

There has been a lot written and said angrily about Gabe Kapler pulling Aaron Nola after 68 pitches in the 6th inning of Opening Day against the Braves. I took a side yesterday, it turned out to not be the reason the Phillies used, and of course the bullpen gave up a bunch of runs and blew the game. So rather than give a single side, I am going to look at all the various parts of the decision.

Rest Nola, It Is Game 1 of 162

This was my initial gut feeling on the move. Aaron Nola threw in the high 60 pitches in his last spring training start, he could have gone probably into the low 80s, but he wasn’t going for a long outing. At the time of the move, there was a man on base and the Phillies were up 5-0. The information at the time was that the Phillies had 9 pitchers in the bullpen (we later learned Pat Neshek was injured), which should be fine for getting 11 outs (at least that is the theory). So overall the thought here is that Nola pitched less than 170 innings last year, and with the Phillies’ emphasis on rest and keeping their pitchers healthy, this game presented an opportunity to get out of it with a sub 70 pitch outing from Nola to have him well rested for his next start and the rest of the season.

Third Time Through the Order Plus Two Lefties Could be a Problem for Aaron Nola

.216/.267/.374
.197/.248/.300
.315/.381/.455 Continue reading…

Crashburn Alley’s 2018 Predictions

The 2018 season kicks off today. The Phillies have high expectations relative the past few years, but they aren’t the only team with high expectations. Once again the members of the Crashburn Alley staff has put together their predictions for standings, awards and other things.

Participating this year:

  • Matt Winkelman
  • Brad Engler
  • Adam Dembowitz
  • Michael Schickling
  • Colbert Root
  • Liam Murphy
  • Jack Merlino

Continue reading…