Myself, Paul Boye, and Ryan Sommers have covered his season in exhaustive detail, so I won’t bother you with another treatise on the subject. However, I would like to point out some stats that indicate to me that Halladay’s season shouldn’t cause worry.

• Strikeout rate as a percentage of batters faced
• 2012: 19.7%
• Career: 18.7%
• Note: His strikeout rate had been higher in the last four seasons, two with the Blue Jays and two with the Phillies. In 2003, when Halladay won his first Cy Young award, his strikeout rate was 19.1%, however.
• Walk rate as a percentage of batters faced
• 2012: 4.6%
• Career: 5.0%
• Note: Converse to his strikeout rate, Halladay is walking more batters than he had in the previous four seasons, but he still has a K-BB ratio in excess of four-to-one. Only 17 qualified starting pitchers have an equal or better ratio (including three of his teammates).
• Batting average on balls in play.
• 2012: .290
• Career: .292
• Note: His BABIP is interesting. This year, his BABIP on ground balls and line drives are .296 and .677, respectively, compared to .202 and .749 over his career. It’s a very small sample, so there’s a ton of variance here. Still, it’s interesting and something to monitor going forward. At the very least, we know he isn’t getting hit hard.
• Home run rate as a percentage of fly balls induced
• 2012: 7.6%
• Career: 9.7%
• Note: His overall fly ball rate is also in line with his career average (30%, 26%).
• ERA/xFIP/SIERA
• 2012: 3.58/3.30/3.37
• Career: 3.24/3.16/3.26
• Note: Rather self-explanatory. xFIP is an ERA retrodictor that uses a pitcher’s fly ball rate, while SIERA accounts for the interaction between a pitcher’s batted ball profile and his strikeout and walk rates.

Basically, if you’re unhappy with Halladay’s performance thus far, then you’re unhappy with his career to date. No, he isn’t as dominant as he was during the last two years, but they are at the far right of the bell curve. His 2012 performance is right in the middle of his Hall of Fame bell curve, and that’s plenty good enough atop the starting rotation.

Roy Halladay has given up 5 runs or more in a start 77 times in his career. It'll happen again.

— Sky Kalkman (@Sky_Kalkman) May 23, 2012

But tonight has its own big news–Jimmy Rollins had a baby last night, so he won’t be in the lineup tonight while doctors struggle to solve that little bit of procreational weirdness. No doubt the Phillies will shoot the baby full of cortisone and then shoo Bob Brookover out of the hospital like a drunken recluse chasing the neighbors’ kids out of his backyard. The resulting lineup shuffling moves Freddy Galvis over to short and gives Mike Fontenot his first start with the Phillies. Given how much folks around here seem to like dudes with French last names and uniform numbers ending in 8, Fontenot should do fine.

Lineups

Washington

• Steve Lombardozzi, LF (.360 wOBA)
• Bryce Harper, RF (.332)
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (.322)
• Adam LaRoche, 1B (.408)
• Ian Desmond, SS (.325)
• Danny Espinosa, 2B (.280)
• Rick Ankiel, CF (.276)
• Jesus Flores, C (.256)
• Gio Gonzalez, P

Phillies

• The God of War, Juan Pierre, LF (.323)
• Placido Polanco, 3B (.296)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.327)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.360)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.426)
• John Mayberry, 1B (.270)
• Freddy Galvis, SS (.297)
• Mike Fontenot, 2B (.623)
• Kyle Kendrick, P

As the saying goes, a leopard cannot change its spots. The Phillies, based on who made the 25-man roster out of spring training, were never going to have an offensive that exemplified great plate discipline. Nevertheless, it has been frustrating at times to watch them hit with easy-to-get runs on the bases, only to pop-up weakly or go down swinging on three strikes. In particular, one of the most frequent complaints I have seen has been the Phillies’ propensity to swing at the first pitch.

Saturday’s game against the Boston Red Sox is a good recent example. In the bottom of the eighth, Jimmy Rollins had brought the score to 7-5 with an RBI infield single against Alfredo Aceves. Rollins then stole second base and Aceves walked John Mayberry on four pitches. Shane Victorino stepped to the plate with the bases loaded and a chance to be a hero, if he could find a spot for a single to the outfield. Aceves was laboring and showed a lack of control, so it might have been a good idea to take the first pitch. Most hitters would have done that, but Victorino swung at the first pitch and popped it up in the infield to end the inning.

Here is one example of many afterwards on Twitter:

That's the epitome of dumb baseball by Victorino. Bases are loaded after a walk and you swing at first pitch.#Phillies

— Michael Radano (@MichaelRadano) May 20, 2012

(I don’t mean to single out Mr. Radano, by the way. There are plenty more examples here.)

The Phillies see the sixth-fewest first-pitch strikes in all of baseball (58 percent). Victorino sees the fewest on the team (54.6 percent) and the 44th fewest among 175 qualified players. However, over his career (393 PA), Victorino has a .905 OPS on the first pitch, which is much greater than his .779 career average. Obviously, he’s been doing something right.

The average player sees a fastball on the first pitch 57 percent of the time. This year, Victorino has seen them at a 65 percent clip, the 49th-highest rate out of 178 players*. Victorino likes fastballs: since 2009, he has a .374 wOBA against first-pitch fastballs. The following heat maps show where they’ve tended to cluster:

*Data comes from a different source, which explains the disparity in qualified players.

Additionally, Aceves had thrown fastballs 61 percent of the time, which is at about the league average among relief pitchers. Batters posted a sub-.300 wOBA against his first-pitch fastballs. Here’s where they’ve typically been:

The bases were also loaded and Aceves just walked Mayberry on four pitches. The odds of Aceves throwing a fastball over the plate were quite good, about as good as they’d ever be, save if Victorino had managed to get to 3-0. As baseball is a mixed strategy game, hitters are always trying to predict (imperfectly) what the pitcher will throw. As players fall into patterns and the rest of the league gains of knowledge of those patterns, adjustments will be made. For instance, if Victorino ends up swinging at a significantly larger portion of first pitches this year, he will get even less to hit on the first pitch later in the season and into next year. Likewise, if Aceves starts throwing more sliders on the first pitch, then hitters like Victorino will be less likely to assume a fastball is coming.

This was the end result:

The key word is “result”. When analyzing the validity of a strategy, the result is completely meaningless. In Blackjack, I can hit with 20. It’s a very stupid idea, because the only cards that don’t ruin me are aces. If I hit and happen to spike an ace anyway, it doesn’t mean hitting on 20 was therefore smart.

Victorino swung at the first pitch (which might have been a few inches further inside than he anticipated), popped up, and ended the rally. It was certainly frustrating to watch, but Victorino’s strategy cannot be faulted. Victorino himself did not fault the strategy:

Damn right. I would swing at that every single time. He just beat me. I went up there looking for a cutter. I faced him in spring training and went up there looking first-pitch cutter*. I got the pitch I wanted and he just beat me. I tip my hat. He got me. It is what it is. I’m not going to sit here and question what I did.

*For clarification: my data source lumps cutters in with all fastballs.

This is just one example; there are plenty more throughout the first 42 games. Not all of them are justified, but some are. One cannot make a blanket statement such as “swinging at the first pitch is always bad.” The concept, rather, is fluid — you have to weigh each situation individually according to its unique set of variables.

The Phillies as a team have the third-lowest OPS in the National League when swinging at the first pitch. Victorino is not part of the problem, however.

The biggest offender is Rollins, who has swung at 21 first pitches to the tune of a .211 OPS. Galvis and Polanco have also not had the greatest fortune swinging at the first pitch. Just because Rollins has performed so poorly, though, doesn’t mean that he should altogether stop swinging at the first pitch. Part of the fun in being a fan is being emotionally invested in each and every pitch, but when the dust settles, let’s not fault the players’ strategies without giving them due diligence.

Games 33-40 Recap

• Record: 7-1
• RS: 49; RA: 34
• Notes: Vance Worley hit the 15-day DL, but avoided surgery. Joe Savery was recalled.
• Ruiz hit .560/.621/.840 in these eight games, with two stolen bases.

• And speaking of Chooch

How about this Ruiz fellow, eh? A .371/.415/.621 slash on the season to date puts him among the top hitters in baseball. Right now, he’s even outslugging Ryan Braun and David Ortiz. Is he going to stay on this level all year? Almost certainly not. His .360 BABIP figures to take a couple steps down, but even when it does, he’ll be posting a line that’s more than respectable for as good a defensive catcher as he is, to boot.Ruiz is doing big time damage on pitches over the heart of the plate – as you’d want every hitter to do – but is also feasting on pitches in the upper half of the zone. A popular talking point on Chooch in those handy-dandy “scouting report” broadcast graphics is that he loves to hit the fastball. It’s easy to say that about the majority of Major Leaguers, but it really has been particularly true of Ruiz to date. Carlos has been thrown 244 fastballs in 2012, of which he has only swung on and missed four times. He’s batting .446 with a 1.222 OPS when he puts a fastball in play.

There are a lot of .gifs, so don’t click through unless your browser can handle it.

The Mike Fontenot Misplay

Marlon Byrd‘s Groundout

In Slow Motion

Bobby Valentine Pleading His Case

The Umpire Loses His Gum, but Not His Cool

Valentine Places A Hex on Gary Darling

Calling the Red Sox a “glass cannon” refers to their wholly offensive approach — they rank second in the American League, averaging 5.4 runs per game, and they also rank second-last with 5.1 runs allowed per game. As a result, they play a lot of high-scoring games, which couldn’t be any more the opposite for the Phillies. Although the offense has come alive recently, they have scored three or fewer runs in 18 of 39 games. Tonight’s pitching match-up epitomizes the two teams completely: reliever-turned-starter Daniel Bard (4.91 xFIP) opposes Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels (2.89).

Lineups

Red Sox

• Mike Aviles, SS (.320 wOBA)
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.377)
• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (.331)
• Cody Ross, RF (.355)
• Will Middlebrooks, 3B (.370)
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (.350)
• Daniel Nava, LF (.556)
• Marlon Byrd, CF (.263)
• Daniel Bard, P

Phillies

• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.269)
• Juan Pierre, LF (.348)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.318)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.342)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.432)
• Ty Wigginton, 3B (.318)
• John Mayberry, 1B (.252)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (.278)
• Cole Hamels, P

2012 has been an otherwise disappointing offensive season for the Phillies, but Ruiz has been the rock of the lineup, prompting manager Charlie Manuel to move him from the #7 spot, where he had been in 19 of his first 20 starts, to #5 where he’s been in each of his last three starts.

Despite leading the team with nine homers and 27 RBI, Hunter Pence has been lackluster thus far. His .342 wOBA is still above-average, but when he isn’t hitting home runs, he isn’t doing much of anything at all. He has just seven doubles and one triple, and his .253 batting average and .301 on-base percentage echo that. As the team’s best hitter typically bats cleanup, fans have been clamoring for Pence to hit third and Ruiz to hit in the cleanup spot to salvage more run-scoring opportunities.

Generally speaking, though, the effect of an “ideal” batting order is vastly overstated when it comes to scoring more runs. To illustrate this, I used the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis page and ZiPS rest-of-season projections. Here were the results:

Most Optimal Lineup

4.22 runs per game: Ruiz-Victorino-Polanco-Pence-Rollins-Galvis-Wigginton-Pitcher-Pierre

Suggested Lineup (Ruiz cleanup)

4.03 runs per game: Rollins-Pierre-Pence-Ruiz-Victorino-Wigginton-Polanco-Galvis-Pitcher

Least Optimal Lineup

3.75 runs per game: Galvis-Pitcher-Victorino-Pierre-Wigginton-Polanco-Rollins-Ruiz-Pence

Additionally, the difference between a lineup where everything else is the same except the 3-4-5 is Pence-Ruiz-Victorino (4.03) instead of Victorino-Pence-Ruiz (4.06) is about 0.03 runs, or fewer than four runs over the remaining 123 games. Ten runs roughly equates to one win, so we’re talking about less than one-half of one win over the next 123 games based on ZiPS’ projections, found on FanGraphs.

Fans and talking heads tend to make lineup construction out to be a much, much bigger deal than it actually is. The key to a good lineup is simply getting your best players up to the plate as much as possible, and taking advantage of platoon match-ups when possible. The Phillies haven’t done a whole lot of the former, as Jimmy Rollins and his .269 wOBA have led off in 19 of 39 games, Placido Polanco (.298) has hit second in 22 games, and Rollins has also been slotted in the #3 spot 19 times. If we’re splitting hairs, Ruiz should actually bat first in the lineup, since he’s been the best hitter.

In the long run, it doesn’t make a lot of difference as the true key to lineup construction is personnel. Have a look at the 2007 Phillies’ roster which averaged 5.5 runs per game (the league average was 4.7). Charlie Manuel could have thrown names in a hat and picked out a lineup that would score 5.5 runs per game. With this roster, you’re looking at a league-average offense until Chase Utley and Ryan Howard return, and that’s not going to change whether Ruiz is hitting first, fourth, or sixth.

Their victory last night allowed the Phillies to move to .500 for the first time since May 3 and, with Roy Halladay starting tonight, they have the chance to finally go over .500 for the first time since Opening Day. If having a two-time Cy Young winner on the mound wasn’t enough, Halladay will be opposed by Chris Volstad, a pitcher the Phillies have always hit with great ease. Over his career, Volstad has allowed 18 home runs to Phillies batters, 11 more than the second-most he’s allowed (Braves, Nationals). Among teams he has racked at least 40 innings against, his 5.89 Phillies ERA is also easily the worst.

Lineups

Phillies

• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.265 wOBA)
• Juan Pierre, LF (.347)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.318)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.339)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.415)
• Ty Wigginton, 3B (.326)
• Hector Luna, 1B (2.087, which is totally sustainable)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (.282)
• Roy Halladay, P

Cubs

• David DeJesus, RF (.326)
• Tony Campana, CF (.346)
• Starlin Castro, SS (.332)
• Bryan LaHair, 1B (.464)
• Alfonso Soriano, LF (.285)
• Ian Stewart, 3B (.270)
• Geovany Soto, C (.246)
• Darwin Barney, 2B (.309)
• Chris Volstad, P

Courtesy Brooks Baseball, here’s the strike zone plot with each pitch labeled:

Lawrie’s response was 100% wrong and he should have been suspended more than four games, in this writer’s humble opinion. However, as a baseball fan, I’m growing tired of umpires wrongfully impacting the game. Unlike players, umpires rarely get punished for being terrible at their job or instigating conflict on the baseball field. Joe West, for example, has not only become known for being an instigator, but he has worn the reputation with pride and used it to further his career both on and off the field. It’s an imbalance that lowers the quality of each and every baseball game.

We have a situation right now where, if you know the name of an umpire, it is almost always because of something negative; rarely is it for something positive. Try it yourself, right now: name as many umpires as you can off of the top of your head, then go back and write down why each umpire sticks out in your memory. Umpires’ nicknames even mock their very presence on the field, just ask “Balkin’” Bob Davidson:

Davidson, who has been nicknamed “Balkin’ Bob” or “Balk-a-day-Bob” due to his frequent and usually incorrect balk calls [...]

How is this good for the game of baseball? This imbalance sullies the veracity of many games throughout the history of baseball, much more so than performance-enhancing drugs ever supposedly did. For a striking reminder, re-watch when Ryan Howard was tossed out of a game back in August 2010:

The third base umpire who mocked Howard before ejecting him in the 14th inning was Scott Barry. By needlessly instigating and therefore needlessly ejecting Howard, he forced the Phillies to use starting pitcher Roy Oswalt in left field. Although Oswalt did not drop the one fly ball hit to him, he did have to hit in the bottom of the 16th with runners on first and second with two outs and his team down 4-2. Howard could have been at the plate with a chance to hit a walk-off three-run home run, but instead, Oswalt — a career .152 hitter — weakly grounded out to third base to end the game. That’s the Phillies’ most recent example; you could ask each member of ESPN’s Sweet Spot network for his or her team’s game-losing umpire judgment without going further back than 2010.

Baseball needs to do one of two things:

• Embrace “the human element” but implement a system where umpires are publicly held accountable for their performance and for their actions with other players and coaches
• Scrap “the human element” altogether, relying on instant replay and automated verification

When a player hits .150, he gets benched or even sent down to the Minor Leagues. When an umpire performs equivalently poorly, nothing happens. As a result, we have a system where it behooves umpires to move further up the proverbial bell curve — to set themselves apart from their peers. They have nothing to lose! Why not call balks with reckless abandon or take advantage of emotionally-invested players by making obviously incorrect calls to goad them into an argument or tantrum? The upside is that you become better-recognized and you might get a nickname. That translates to money and job security, eventually.

Now, imagine a world where umpires are rigorously graded for the accuracy of their ball/strike, safe/out, and fair/foul rulings, and publicly held accountable for getting out of line with a player or coach. The validity of some games would no longer be in question, the average game time would go down due to fewer (or zero) arguments, and teams wouldn’t unnecessarily be losing key players for games at a time. Sure, you’d lose the “theater” of the vs.-umpire conflict, but the sport would be all the better for it. In that world, I couldn’t sympathize with a player whose temper tantrum would make a seven-year-old shake his head in disappointment.

Lineups

Phillies

• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.262 wOBA)
• Juan Pierre, LF (.335)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.322)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.346)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.404)
• Placido Polanco, 3B (.305)
• John Mayberry, 1B (.265)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (.270)
• Kyle Kendrick, P

Cubs

• David DeJesus, RF (.327)
• Tony Campana, CF (.355)
• Starlin Castro, SS (.340)
• Bryan LaHair, 1B (.479)
• Alfonso Soriano, LF (.275)
• Ian Stewart, 3B (.276)
• Geovany Soto, C (.253)
• Darwin Barney, 2B (.309)
• Matt Garza, P