MLB Pipeline Releases Phillies Top 30 Prospects

On Tuesday, MLB released their top 30 prospects for every National League East team on MLBpipeline.com. While for many this was a chance to see what the league’s prospect gurus had to say about the Braves farm system, which is one of the best, we here at Crashburn were interested in getting our first look at their take on a Phils farm system that has seen some mixed reviews throughout the offseason.

While the general consensus is that the organization is above average, opinions have varied. Keith Law ranked the Phillies as the 14th best system, down from sixth heading into 2016, while Baseball Prospectus tabbed only three teams as having more Top 101 prospects than the Phillies.

A few factors combined to lower the esteem held toward what many in Philly think is a bright prospect-studded future. First, the organization graduated a handful of upper-level prospects last season. The last MLB Pipeline ranking in 2015 had Jake Thompson ranked third, Zach Eflin as a top-10 prospect and Alec Asher also listed at 25. All three played with the big club in 2016.

In addition, a few of the best prospects in the system didn’t take expected steps forward. Nick Williams tried to swing his way to Philadelphia with no such luck, J.P. Crawford, who many also assumed would debut with the Phillies late last season, didn’t make the adjustment to triple-A as swimmingly as hoped for a top-5 prospect in all of baseball, and Mark Appel struggled before having season-ending elbow surgery.

You lose some players to the majors, a few top guys don’t make statements that incite the greatest level of confidence, and your stock realistically will drop. So it went.

So how do they rank the current prospects? Continue reading…

A Belated Look At The 2016 Draft, ft. Eric Longenhagen

A couple weeks back I asked Eric Longenhagen for his opinion of the Phils 2016 Draft. Since so much has been said already in regards to first overall pick, California prep center fielder Mickey Moniak, and since Eric wrote about him in his post-draft analysis at ESPN, I’ll just link you to that here.

Beyond that, we got into questions about the top six picks, best tools, drafting mentors/coaching candidates and more. Hope you enjoy this belated look at the Phils 2016 draft. (This is the part where I decided not to blame our nine-month old baby for my procrastination. Though really, it’s pretty much ALL HER FAULT. Please don’t tell her I said that).

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Brad: Is Moniak/Kevin Gowdy (rd 2) about as well as you think the Phils could have done with their top two picks and no supplemental round selections?

Eric: I think there were a few other players they would have preferred at 42 (like Rutherford and Wentz) but that Gowdy was the best they could do given their circumstances. They were really boxed in by where the Braves, Reds and Padres picked. I think they did as well as they could have.

B: Were you in charge, would you have been pushing hard to get a comp pick in trade? If I’m running the draft from 1.1 with less money than the guy picking behind me, I can’t imagine not walking into the executive washroom and setting my self on fire for another pick. Maybe not my whole self. At least the hair. (It’s taking its leave soon enough, in any case).

E: If all it would have taken was something like what ATL did with the Matusz deal, then yes I would have been all over that. As long as ownership was cool with it. That’s the kind of thing that GMs normally need permission to do.

Continue reading…

Phils Pick RHP Kevin Gowdy, Plus Day 1 Wrap and Sentimental Rambling

With the first pick in round two, and 42nd overall on the night, The Phillies picked RHP Kevin Gowdy from Santa Barbara High School in (wait for it) Santa Barbara, CA. He’ll be an overslot sign to buy out his commitment to UCLA, and he’s been ranked #24 overall by Keith Law, #33 by John Sickels at Minorleagueball.com, #39 by Baseball America, #37 by MLB.com. Sickels is right at the average, and pick 33 this year was worth $1.9M. So probably we can start there and go up. The club likely knows what he’ll take and is ready to nab someone else tomorrow morning at 3.1 with some or all of whatever bonus money’s leftover. Continue reading…