Series at a Glance

• April 9: Anibal Sanchez (3.25 xFIP in 2011) @ Cole Hamels (3.02)
• April 11: Josh Johnson (3.32) @ Roy Halladay (2.71)
• April 12: Mark Buehrle (4.14) @ Joe Blanton (3.24 in 38 innings)

Lineups

Marlins

• Jose Reyes, SS (.386 wOBA in 2011)
• Emilio Bonifacio, CF (.341)
• Hanley Ramirez, 3B (.317)
• Gaby Sanchez, 1B (.342)
• Austin Kearns, LF (.262)
• Chris Coghlan, RF (.286)
• Omar Infante, 2B (.305)
• John Buck, C (.301)
• Anibal Sanchez, SP

Phillies

• Juan Pierre, LF (.293)
• Placido Polanco, 3B (.304)
• Jimmy Rollins, SS (.329)
• Hunter Pence, RF (.405)
• Shane Victorino, CF (.372)
• John Mayberry, Jr., 1B (.369)
• Carlos Ruiz, C (.332)
• Freddy Galvis, 2B (N/A)
• Cole Hamels, SP

Dave Gershman (@Dave_Gershman), of ESPN’s Marlins Daily, and I swapped some questions to preview the series on our respective blogs, so make sure to stop over there to check out what I had to say about the Phillies. His answers about the Marlins are below.

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1. So you’ve seen the first regular season action in the new ballpark, albeit just one game. What are your initial thoughts? Do you think it will play as an extreme pitcher’s park as many are predicting?

Although I think it’s too early to tell whether or not the ballpark will favor pitchers rather than hitters, there are some initial problems concerning me that could easily be found within the confines of the park prior to the seasons start. The home run sculpture in center field is a basic issue that I have with the park. It’s almost directly in the batters eye, which too is bright green. There is just a lot of noise going on in center field which I think should be dimmed out if possible. Back to the question though, I do think the park will become a pitcher’s best friend. The dimensions are huge, and last time we saw dimensions as such for a brand new park was Citi Field.

2. Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t hit a home run yet. What’s wrong with him?

Absolutely nothing. The season is only four days old and we all know what Stanton is capable of.

3. Which hitter has most impressed you through four games? Which pitcher?

I’ll go with Omar Infante and Josh Johnson. It’s still early, but Infante’s big home run on Saturday night helped the Marlins win their first game of the season. Additionally, he almost hit for the cycle that night. Josh Johnson being healthy and pitching a decent game on Opening Night earns him my “most valuable pitcher through four games” award. If Johnson can stay healthy and simply be Josh Johnson, the Marlins post-season chances are much greater.

4. Which hitter has least impressed you through four games? Which pitcher?

Mike Stanton and Carlos Zambrano. The fact that Stanton hasn’t yet gone deep isn’t the problem for me. The issue that I have with Stanton is that a lot of the fastballs he’s been given have been rolled over to third base or elsewhere to the left side of the infield. Last season, all of those would be fly balls. Zambrano’s performance yesterday sells it. After a lousy first few innings, the right-hander easily penetrated the Marlins’ chances of winning the ballgame.

5. Anibal Sanchez increased his K/9 from 7.4 and 7.2 in 2009-10 to 9.3 last year, while also continuing to improve his control. What contributed to this change?

Like Ricky Nolasco, Sanchez threw his fastball more and got more whiffs outside the zone. His contact rate lowered because of that and, because of that, probably had him gain more confidence in his arsenal. In doing so, Sanchez has easily become one of the more feared starters in the NL East and has a chance to continue providing as a solid number two for the Fish for years to come.

6. Have the first few games of the season changed the way you feel about the NL East?

Not particularly. I’ll make my judgements in a couple of weeks once things settle down a bit. That said, I did expect the Braves to play better and the Mets the opposite. Cliff Lee failed to lead the Phillies to victory in his first start, but again, these things happen in the first few games of the season. If I made judgements after the first weekend of the season I would have given up on the Red Sox after the first week of last season.

7. How do you see this series playing out? Who wins?

Especially with the way these two teams played this weekend, it could go either way. That said, I think the Phillies will turn the bats on and, additionally, shut the Marlins down. The Fightin’s will win the series 2-1.

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Many thanks to Dave for sharing his insight on the Fish. Follow him on Twitter and stop by Marlins Daily for his thoughts throughout the series.

Use this thread throughout the day to talk about the Phillies and the game.

The minor leagues are largely misunderstood, more well known for the players who have skipped through their ranks than the ones who reside in them. They’re a mysterious land of hotels, bus rides, and clubhouses. Upon being drafted out of UC Irvine by the Phillies, right-handed pitcher Eric Pettis didn’t quite know what he was getting himself into.

Just A Minor Perspective allows readers to jump into Eric’s mind and experience the journey along with him. The narrative resembles stream-of-consciousness as he describes the good, the bad, and the ugly of the minor leagues as it hits him square in the face for the first time.

Eric gives an honest, pointed, and often humorous account of what he feels when he’s feeling it. Just A Minor Perspective is a gripping story of one man’s attempt to find his place in a new world; a scramble to conquer the first rung of the professional baseball ladder.

Pettis was kind enough to take a few questions for us. Check out the questions after the jump and be sure to grab his book and follow him on Twitter (@Eric_Pettis).

1. You were selected by the Phillies in the 2010 draft and recently released during spring training. How did you enjoy your two years in the Phillies’ system?

My two years with the Phillies taught me a lot. There are so many new things to experience in the minor leagues and it can sometimes become overwhelming. Like any professional player in their first two years, I took my fair share of punches. But now I that I know what to expect, things will be easier to handle and hopefully now I can throw out a few punches of my own.

2. What do you do to stay in shape during the off-season, in terms of exercise routines, diet, etc.?

The offseason is really a time for me to obsess over the process. During the season, results are what matter. But in the offseason, when there are no games to be played, I focus on the minute details. Diet and exercise is always very important to me and during the offseason I can really focus on them. I get into a strict diet, counting every calorie and being cognizant of everything that is going into my body. And with a proper diet, I can hit the gym hard. In the offseason I like to do heavy strength training, pushing my body to its limits and building as much strength as I can. My goal in the offseason is to create a good foundation going into the long physically taxing season.

3. What are your personal goals for the 2012 season?

My first goal for the 2012 season is to get picked up by another club, hopefully that will happen soon. When I do get picked up, my goals will be the same as they have been ever since I entered professional baseball: to get better everyday and move up the organizational ladder.

4. You are beginning a baseball career in an era where there is a wealth of information. Do you make use of statistics? If so, which ones, and how do you apply them?

I think stats are for the analysts. As a player it’s fun to check them every now and then, but I don’t think that stats can help you on the field. When I am on the mound, all that I’m trying to do is execute pitches. If I do a good job, then my stats will reflect that.

5. Which baseball players did you most idolize growing up? Which current players, if any, do you try to model yourself after?

Growing up I loved watching guys like Ken Griffey Jr. and Pedro Martinez. They were guys who had unique talents but also knew how to entertain. I’ve always liked guys that carried themselves with a little swagger and those two certainly did. But as a player, I try not to fall into the trap of modeling myself after anyone. I feel like it’s a slippery slope that you tread on when you try to play like someone else. Using similar ideas or philosophies is OK, but when you model your game after another player, you can lose who you are. Everyone is unique and not everything that works for someone else will work for you. I try to be the best me and thats it.

6. If you could change one thing about the way the Minor Leagues are run, what would you change?

There are many things that need changing…Maybe in my next book.

7. What advice would you give to a youngster who aspires to be a professional ballplayer?

I would tell any youngster aspiring to be a professional ballplayer to enjoy the process. It’s a long hard road to reach your dreams and if you can’t have fun along the way then it’s really not worth it. Baseball is called a game for a reason. Put in the work, have the dedication and the discipline, but enjoy it.

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Many thanks to Eric for taking some time out of his schedule to answer a few questions for us. Hopefully, he is able to sign on with a new team sooner rather than later, and continue a promising baseball career. Make sure to snag his book, “Just A Minor Perspective: Through the Eyes of a Minor League Rookie” and give him a follow on Twitter (@Eric_Pettis).

Papelbon isn’t the most well-liked guy in baseball, but he seems very affable and funny at this event. Thome is as lovable as always, Lee couldn’t care less that he’s at this event, and Howard seems rather optimistic about his future given his injury. Overall, it was a very interesting Q&A session that should only make you thirst even more for Opening Day.

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1. Tell us a little bit about Brandon Belt the prospect. What was his ceiling expected to be, and where did he find himself in prospect rankings?

The Giants selected Belt in the fifth round of the 2009 amateur draft out of the University of Texas (Austin). A natural first baseman, Belt dominated the minor leagues in 2010, his first season of professional baseball. He hit .352/.455/.620 in 136 games from A+ to AAA. Baseball America ranked Belt 23rd on its Top 100 prospects list for 2011. He also was the Giants’ top prospect heading into the 2011 season.

2. What factors have contributed to his inability to obtain a job as a MLB regular?

The Giants added Belt as a non-roster invitee to their 2011 spring-training camp, with no expectation he’d make the big-league club. Then Belt batted .306 with five doubles and three home runs in 25 games, and outfielder Cody Ross sustained a calf injury, opening a roster spot.

In his first seventeen games, Belt supplanted veteran Aubrey Huff at first base, forcing Huff to play out of position in the outfield, with often disastrous consequences for the Giants. And while Huff struggled at the plate, Belt was worse, hitting only .192/.300/.269. With Cody Ross ready to return from the disabled list, the Giants optioned Belt to Triple-A on April 21. Again, Belt dominated AAA pitching.

When Buster Posey suffered a season-ending injury in late May, Belt returned to San Francisco. That visit, too, was short-lived, after Cardinals pitcher Trever Miller hit Belt on the wrist with fastball in early June, resulting in a hairline fracture. With his wrist healed, Belt returned to action, but at Triple-A. Again, he dominated. Again, the Giants recalled Belt, but only to take the spot of an injured player. Again, he struggled, was optioned, and then recalled. He ended the season with an unremarkable 225/.306/.412 line.

The Giants stuck with Huff at first base for most of 2011, in large part owing to his two-year, $20 million contract. The team also trusted Huff would eventually get his offense going. He didn’t, ending the season with a .246/.306/.370.

3. How would you have handled the situation differently, in terms of personnel?

Like many prospects who dominate at Triple-A, Belt struggled initially at the big-league level. What he needed most was regular playing time. What he got was a lot of skepticism from manager Bruce Bochy and general manager Brian Sabean. I wouldn’t have given Huff nearly as much time to get his game going. I wouldn’t have given outfielders Andres Torres and Aaron Rowand nearly as much time to get their games going. I would have found a way to play Belt, either at first base or in the outfield, nearly every day.

4. Do you think Belt’s career is redeemable, and if so, can it be done as a Giant?

Yes. Belt is still a top prospect with the potential to be a special player at the plate (and a decent one in the field). He performed well in winter ball in the Dominican League and has had a productive spring. And yet, there is still debate within the Giants’ front office about whether Belt will make the Opening Day roster. So it’s unclear to me whether he can succeed as a Giant.

I would have penciled in Belt as the everyday left fielder for 2012, leaving Brett Pill as Huff’s backup at first, and a nice lefty-righty platoon partner. Pill is a career minor- leaguer. In 53 plate appearances last September, he hit .320/.321/.560 while playing first base for a bit more than 110 innings. That would have given Belt the regular playing time both he and the Giants need, and set him up to take over first base when Huff’s contract expires after this season.

Instead, the Giants traded for Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan slotting Cabrera for left field and Pagan for center. Nate Schierholtz won the right-field job last season with outstanding defense and consistent hitting and was expected to be the everyday right fielder heading into spring training.

This spring, non-roster invitee Gregor Blanco is hitting the leather off the ball and running the bases like a gazelle. At 28, Blanco’s been playing professional baseball since 2006, but only has one full season in the majors. In 2008, Blanco played left and center field for the Braves and hit .251/.366/.309. Since then, he’s bounced around with the Braves, Nationals, and Royals seeing only 317 major-league plate appearances. His career line is .258/.358/.324.

From what’s been reported, it appears that Belt, Pill and Blanco are fighting for two roster spots. If it were my decision, based on what we know now, I would send Pill to Triple-A, make Blanco the fouth outfielder and give Belt most of the playing time at first base. Huff would see some action at first and in left field, leaving Bruce Bochy to juggle the remaining outfield playing time among Cabrera, Pagan, Schierholtz and Blanco.

5. Who do you see having the more productive career when all is said and done, Belt or Domonic Brown?

I hear about the parallels often in that both Belt and Brown are highly-regarded prospects who have not been giving the opportunities to prove themselves in the majors. I’m not as familiar with Brown, obviously, so it’s difficult to say who will have the “more productive” career, even just looking at past performance and projections. Belt has more power potential; Brown more speed. Each needs regular playing time at the big-league level in order to develop their skills fully and to play well consistently. My hope is that it happens – and happens soon – for both players.

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Thanks again to Wendy for taking the time to share her insight on Belt and the Giants. Make sure to read her stuff at FanGraphs, Baseball Nation, and Hanging Sliders, as well as on Twitter @hangingsliders. Let’s hope her optimism about Belt’s future applies equally to that of Brown. The success of the Phillies in 2013 and beyond — some would even argue 2012 — has a lot to do with Brown’s ability to contribute.

May spent all of the 2011 season with Clearwater, where he posted a 3.63 ERA with a 12.4 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Baseball America lists him as the organization’s #1 prospect.

Here are a few of my favorite Q&A’s:

Reddit: what has been your best experience with a big leaguer rehabbing with your squad?

May: Talking Pitching with Brian [Schneider]. That guy is awesome to talk to.

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Reddit: Let’s say you make the show..and you face Bryce Harper. How would you go about pitching against him?

May: In, In, Up and IN.

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Reddit: Is it ever weird to watch MLB games on TV or live, now that the chance for you to be in them is so close? How is it different from watching those games as a kid?

May: Sometimes I stop and realize how surreal it is and will be when I finally throw on that mound. You just always think its so far away, but now that its close its hard to truly realize what It will be like.

Tip of the cap to @jph89 for giving May the idea.

With the Phillies’ issues more or less settled, let’s take a look at two of their competitors in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves. I caught up with each team’s Sweet Spot blog, Dave Gershman for the Marlins and Ben Duronio for the Braves. Gershman runs Marlins Daily and you can follow him on Twitter @Dave_Gershman. Ben writes for Capitol Avenue Club and you can follow him on Twitter @Ben_Duronio. Let’s start with the Marlins.

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Miami Marlins

1. Letter grade your team’s off-season so far. Why do you give it that grade?

The Marlins off-season on paper looks pretty solid. They filled four integral needs on their roster by adding one of the best shortstops in baseball, a solid, injury-free starter, a closer & a number four, albeit Zambrano is an atom bomb waiting to happen. That said, quality over quantity is the key and I’m not sure it’s fair to say the Marlins totally succeeded in that sense. They overpaid for Heath Bell and might’ve done so as well in the case of Buehrle, and that’s one of the few reasons I’d give them a B for winter. The addition of Jose Reyes could be huge for the Fish, and quite possibly an NL East impacting move.

2. Are there any players, free agent or otherwise, you wish your team had pursued more heavily?

If his price and yearly demands were slightly lower, I thought Edwin Jackson would have been a nice fit for the Marlins, especially if the left-field fences are as deep as expected. Jackson isn’t amazing by any means, but he’s a quality pitcher who has found success over the past few years. Also, I would have much rather had K-Rod on a 3/21 deal or something like that than Heath Bell and his 3/27. Not sure if that was ever possible (considering Rodriguez accepted arbitration, but he was on my list of players I wanted to see the Fish acquire. Speaking of that list, last but not least, I thought Grady Sizemore made some sense for the Marlins. It’s hard to see Emilio Bonifacio being anywhere near as successful this year as was last, and even a Sizemore not at 100% could eclipse that.

3. What needs still remain for your team and how do you think your team should go about addressing it?

If the Marlins still do have some money to spend, center-field and the bullpen are some obvious choices for an upgrade. The ‘pen still seems a bit thin and the aforementioned Bonifacio isn’t a starting center-fielder, in my opinion. I thought Coco Crisp would have been a decent option for the Fish, and although it’s unclear whether or not they were in on him, it’s a shame they didn’t pursue him more aggressively. The Marlins usually find success in their minor league signings, but aside from Chad Gaudin they weren’t as active in that market this year. Yesterday, the Twins inked about ten cheap former major leaguers to minor league deals who I totally would have hopped on if I were Larry Beinfest. The list featured the likes of Luis Perdomo, Jared Burton, Daryl Thompson and Jason Bulger. Not great, but those are the kind of guys the Marlins have found success in previously. See Brian Sanches, for instance.

4. What prospects should we keeping an eye on going into the 2012 season?

Ah, my favorite question regarding the Marlins. The minor leagues are my specialty. I spend most of my time watching minor league baseball during the season and was lucky enough to see some decent Marlins prospects last season. The system is rather strange, considering most of the talent is not only two or three years away, but also because it has star power and raw guys with tons of upside. There’s really no “in-the-middle” guys. That said, the prospects I’m highest on are Noah Perio, Christian Yelich, Jose Fernandez and J.T. Realmuto. Not neseccarily in that order, but those are my favorite four. All have a chance to greatly impact the Marlins in some way.

. . .

Atlanta Braves

1. Letter grade your team’s off-season so far. Why do you give it that grade?

So far I would give the Braves a B+. They have not done much, except rid themselves of Derek Lowe, Alex Gonzalez, and a few bullpen arms. The Lowe trade was fantastic and exactly what the team could have hoped for. The grade will likely be altered once Jair Jurrjens is traded, but their ability to be patient and wait for the correct transactions to make is why I have given them such a supportive grade.

2. Are there any players, free agent or otherwise, you wish your team had pursued more heavily?

I wanted them to pursue Angel Pagan a bit more than they did, and I wish the team traded for Brendan Ryan to play shortstop. I see him as an incredibly undervalued player who would be an improvement over what the team got from the position last season. With rookie Tyler Pastornicky expected to take the starting role, the team is placing a lot of faith in a prospect who does not dazzle with the glove nor the bat. The high expectancy of Ryan producing similar numbers as he has over the course of his career would have been more comforting than the risk the Braves are taking with Pastornicky being handed the job before Spring Training.

3. What needs still remain for your team and how do you think your team should go about addressing it?

It is understood that the team is looking for a starting left fielder, and the trade rumors have indicated that to be a reality. They do not necessarily need to do so, with Martin Prado the incumbent at the position. I would be fine with the Braves going with Prado in left field if they acquire a solid fourth outfielder, but it is expected that they will look to acquire a bigger bat sometime this offseason.

Other than that, the only position on the Major League roster that is available is utility infielder. Non-roster invite Drew Sutton could eventually be that player, but Wren seems intent on acquiring a legitimate backup shortstop rather than go with the uncertainty that is Sutton.

The farm system could also be improved, which is what I personally label as a “need.” Jair Jurrjens is the piece that could acquire a group of prospects that can improve the outlook of the position players in the system. Martin Prado could also be moved to accomplish this task.

4. What prospects should we keeping an eye on going into the 2012 season?

As mentioned before, Tyler Pastornicky will be starting for the Braves unless something drastic occurs before opening day. The hope is that Pastornicky plays about average defense and has an average bat for a shortstop, which is fine from that position. Other than Pastornicky, most of the interesting prospects the Braves have are on the mound.

Julio Teheran could be in the rotation full-time when Jurrjens is traded, and Randall Delgado will be the sixth starter in that event. Both should see time in the rotation for large portions of the season, and fellow top pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino will be a bullpen arm for the big club. Vizcaino has the stuff to be a dominant back-end reliever, which should give the team one of the best bullpens in the game once again.

Players to follow in the minors that will not see the majors this year include Edward Salcedo, Sean Gilmartin, Christian Bethancourt, and Zeke Spruill to name a few.

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Thanks to Dave and Ben for taking the time to talk about their teams. Make sure to visit Marlins Daily and follow @Dave_Gershman for your Marlins-related news and analysis, and Capitol Avenue Club and @Ben_Duronio for Braves intel.

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1. Matt Holliday is unavailable for at least Game One of the NLDS. How big a deal is his injury?

It’s certainly huge if he can’t play, inasmuch as he is one of the offense’s “MV3,” along with Berkman and Pujols. GM John Mozeliak has said that Holliday’s injury might be DL-worthy had it occurred earlier in the year, so it’s definitely serious. The good news for the Cardinals is that Allen Craig is a potentially potent fill-in.

2. Do you agree with Tony La Russa’s choices in using Kyle Lohse to open the series, and Chris Carpenter for Game Two on three days of rest?

La Russa’s penchant for overmanaging is infamous enough to have been the subject of a Mustrash episode, and this is an example of TLR seemingly needing to put his stamp on the series. He does have some method to his madness, though: Using Carpenter early would allow him to return for a possible Game 5, which makes sense. The stranger call is delaying Jaime Garcia, who would’ve pitched on normal rest in Game 1, till Tuesday’s Game 3. I don’t like it because pitching Garcia in Game 1 would’ve given the team the option to start him on one-day short rest in a possible Game 4. And if not Garcia in Game 1, I still consider Jackson to be better than Lohse, despite the latter’s career year.

3. The Cardinals are not a very mobile team, having finished last in the NL in stolen bases with 57. Do you worry about their ability to manufacture runs against the Phillies’ pitching staff?

The Cardinals scored the most runs in the league because they manufacture runs simply by getting on base and not via “small ball.” The key, since they are so poor at stealing (not to mention the league’s slowest team) and, in addition, executing will be not running into outs on the bases, which they have done with occasional impunity. TLR will have to resist the urge to put runners in motion in order to avoid double plays, to which he may be particularly sensitive given the misguided criticism of the team hitting into so many (which is mostly a function of OBP, of course). The Phillies’ staff will make them pay or underappreciating their limited outs.

4. Do you feel confident that the Cardinals’ lefty relievers can neutralize Ryan Howard?

Howard has a .100 OBP/.100 SLG in 10 plate appearances against Brian Tallet. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they overhauled their LOOGys late in the season and shipped Tallet to Toronto. They now have the majors’ fourth-oldest player in Arthur Rhodes, against whose platoon advantage Howard is impervious, with .400 OBP and .750 SLG in 10 PAs. Expect Marc Rzepczynski to be the designated LOOGy, against whom Howard is 0-for-2. If for some reason La Russa gets into a pinch or wants to get creative, he could use starting pitcher Jaime Garcia in relief against Howard, who is only 2-for-12 with six Ks against him.

5. The Cardinals are a team heavy on right-handed hitters. Do you think they match up better against Cliff Lee than Roy Halladay?

They haven’t hit either one this year, so I think this is a case of sheer talent trumping any platoon advantage. Lee held the Cardinals to a .322 OBP/.269 SLG in two starts in 2011, while Halladay was no more generous at .286 OBP/.340 SLG.

BONUS: Who do you see winning the series, and in how many games?

If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the Phillies — but not much. As superlative as the Phillies are, the Selig-format playoffs are notoriously a crapshoot, and this would be the series for the Cardinals to knock them off. The deep Philly rotation also loses some of its advantage, since the Cardinals can end it in three or, at the least, have to use their fourth man only once.

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Thanks to Matthew for taking some time out of his schedule to talk with us on the other side. You can follow him on Twitter (@Fungoes) and keep tabs on his blog Fungoes for a numbers-heavy take on the series as it progresses.

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1. The Phillies are on pace for a 106-win season. Meanwhile the Yankees, with the second-best record, are on pace for 98 wins. Are the Phillies eight wins better than the Yankees, or is the National League just that much worse than the American League?

I would argue that the Phillies and Yankees are certainly more equal than their records would suggest. As I write this, both teams have a Pythagorean W-L record of 94-50, but the Yankees have “underperformed” by four wins while the Phillies have “overperformed” by one win. If you factor in that the Yankees have played 69 games against teams over .500 while the Phillies have played 49 such games (the Phillies do have a better winning percentage. 571 to .551), it seems more clear that the teams are pretty even, although I’m sure the Phillies will head into the postseason as the favorite by a large margin.

2. As we wrap up the regular season, what do you see as the Phillies’ biggest weakness entering post-season play?

The first inclination may be to say “the offense,” but since acquiring Hunter Pence, the Phillies are averaging 5.0 runs per game while hitting .262/.328/.427, up from 4.3 runs per game and a .249/.322/.388 line before acquiring Pence. Sure, Raul Ibanez is a big defensive liability when he plays, but I guess my major concern would be the bullpen depth outside of Ryan Madson and Antonio Bastardo. If the starters can pitch deep into games like they have all season, it’s not an issue, but avoiding the middle relief will be key (even if it has been better than expected).

3. Of the possible NLDS match-ups, which team has the best chance of beating the Phillies in a five-game series — the Brewers or Diamondbacks?

As hot as the Diamondbacks have been, and as good as Ian Kennedy has been, I’d still prefer to face them than the Brewers. Their rotation goes four-deep and all four starters are capable of a shutdown performance. John Axford has converted 39 consecutive saves and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are MVP candidates for a reason.

4. You unwrap a candy bar to find a golden ticket inside. The ticket allows you to set the Phillies’ post-season rotation. Assuming you’ll roll with a top-three of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, who wins the #4 spot — Roy Oswalt or Vance Worley?

You have to go Worley, no? And I say that as a big Oswalt fan. But isn’t Worley the team’s good-luck charm? Plus he’s been better. Yes, Oswalt has a good track record in the postseason, but this is about 2011.

5. Should the Phillies be at all worried about meeting up with the Braves in the NLCS?

Let’s see: Phillies lead the season series 9-6, have outscored the Braves by 25 runs, we don’t know the status yet of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. I just don’t see the Braves winning a seven-game series, but this is baseball and anything can happen in October.

6. Which AL team would match up best against the Phillies in a World Series meeting?

I think the Yankees are the best club in the AL right now. CC Sabathia can pitch on three days’ rest, the bullpen is excellent and they can certainly score runs. The interesting thing is that none of the AL contenders really has much in the way of left-handed relief pitching (the Yankees do have Boone Logan; the Tigers have Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth), so Ryan Howard may still face right-handers late in the game.

7. Which player has the most potential to be a playoff series-changer for the Phillies? Call him an X-factor, if you will.

Aside from the obvious – Cliff Lee certainly appears pretty locked in right now – I’ll go with Ryan Howard. After a homerless postseason a year ago, maybe he’s due for a few longballs. Plus, whether the Phillies play the Brewers or D-backs, he’ll be playing in a good hitter’s park and facing some pitchers who can serve up some home runs (Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Joe Saunders).

8. As you look back on the season, which Phillies player surprised you the most? Who was the most disappointing?

Besides Worley? Antonio Bastardo has held opponents to a .119 average – that’s the lowest ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. Yeah, that surprised me. No Phillies player performed below expectations this year other than Oswalt (and Blanton, but he got injured).

9. Does a Phillie walk away with Cy Young hardware? What about Worley and the Rookie of the Year award?

Man, I think it’s still too close to call. Clayton Kershaw has a chance at the pitching Triple Crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts), so he’ll be hard to beat if he leads all three categories. But voters love shutouts and Lee has six of them. And Halladay deserves it. Can we split it three ways and give part to Cole Hamels as well? As great as Worley has been, Craig Kimbrel wins the Rookie award pretty easily, I think Worley’s case is much better than most are saying.

10. Do you have any bold predictions for the playoffs? (Doesn’t have to be Phillies-related.)

No bold predictions, although Phillies fans may be aware of this note: No NL team with the best record in the majors has won the World Series since the 1986 Mets. Maybe that means the odds are in Philly’s favor.

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Thanks, as always, to Schoenfield for taking time out of his very busy schedule to provide his thoughts on the Phillies from an outsider’s perspective. Keep up with the whole Sweet Spot crew — including Christina Kahrl, Steve Berthiaume, Eric Karabell, Mark Simon, and more — throughout the playoffs. They’ll have you covered from every angle.

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1. Both the Phillies and Braves are virtual playoff locks. Since division rivals can’t play each other in the NLDS, which team do you fear more, the Brewers or D-Backs?

The Brewers and it’s not even close. Milwaukee’s team xFIP is right behind that of Philadelphia and Atlanta and their offense is one of the best in the league. Arizona’s offense and pitching staff aren’t in the same category as that of Milwaukee. I consider Arizona to be the weakest of the contenders.

2. The Braves have been bitten in the injury bug, particular with regard to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. Recently, though, I saw you tweet that that didn’t worry you. How come?

Depth. If Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson don’t throw another pitch this season Atlanta can take Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor to the postseason with Randall Delgado in the bullpen as the long man and Julio Teheran waiting around in case a starter gets injured. I feel really good about that group. I’d rather have Hanson in the rotation, but I’d probably rather have Minor than Jurrjens, to be honest.

3. How is former Phillie Michael Bourn working out for you?

Very well. He hasn’t been an automatic out at the plate and has been a plus defender in center field. You couldn’t say the same thing about any of the other center fielders Atlanta has employed since Andruw Jones left. He’s been a good addition.

4. Dan Uggla was abysmal all season, but went on that lengthy hitting streak and he’s continued to hit since it ended. What was Uggla doing wrong earlier, and what did he change (if anything) to improve?

I think initially it was an approach thing, where he was trying to trade quality contact for quantity contact. He’s been striking out more since his hitting streak started, which is a good thing for a hitter like him. The key for Uggla is hitting the ball hard and far, not making tons of contact. While the approach thing was primarily responsible, after awhile the slump probably got in his head and the problem became a three-headed monster: approach, mechanics, and confidence.

5. While the rest of September is mostly meaningless, what or who are you going to be keeping an eye in in the remaining four weeks?

Because of the amount of pitching depth the Braves have, it seems like there are only four or five pitchers with a guaranteed postseason roster spot: Tim Hudson, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty, and possibly Derek Lowe. The other 6-7 spots are still TBD, and they’ll be decided by health and performance down the stretch. In short, I’m watching all of the pitchers.

6. Do you consider this series a must-win, or important at all?

Completely meaningless.

7. The pitching match-ups will be Lowe/Lee, Hudson/Worley, and Beachy/Oswalt. How do you see the series playing out?

You can’t predict baseball!

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Thanks, as always, to Peter for taking some time to speak about his team for us. Be sure to drop by Capitol Avenue Club to see what I had to say about the Phillies, as well as for Braves-related news and analysis as the series — and the season — moves on. If you’re on Twitter, I highly recommend following Peter (@CapitolAvenue) as his mix of intelligent analysis and humor will keep you informed and entertained.

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1. Enjoying your time as a fan of the defending World Series champions?

I am enjoying it, but at the same time, I’m ready to move on a little. That’s not to say that I’m ungrateful for what 2010 meant to me, and a lot of other fans, but the afterglow is nearly gone and I’m ready to go for another title. I think teams that get trapped in the “we won the World Series!” mindset are doomed to make poor decisions. Let’s hope the Giants are ready for the next step, whatever that might mean. But, that’s sports, it’s a “what have you done for me lately” business.

2. How do the 2011 Giants compare to the 2010 Giants? Better, worse, about the same?

Similar in some ways, but different in others. The biggest thread between 2010 and 2011 is, of course, the fantastic pitching. The Giants have a top-three rotation in the National League right now and the things the bullpen has done should be considered cruel and unusual. Really, the pitching has been beyond outstanding. As fans of this team, we’re definitely spoiled when it comes to pitching.

On the other side, the offense has really been struggling since the year started. Losing Buster Posey for the season was a huge shock to an offense that was never projected to mash from spots one through eight. Injuries have kept the best possible configuration for the offense off the field. Add in Aubrey Huff‘s 2009 impression, Miguel Tejada being terrible, and a few other factors, and the offense has been, by most metrics, the worst in the NL. I think the biggest difference between last year’s team and other versions was the inclusion of a league average offense. That’s it. Getting a league average offense did wonders for the team when combined with it’s elite pitching. It’s going to be hard to win with an offense that ranks dead last.

3. You have the authority to make one transaction for the Giants before the July 31 deadline. What move do you make?

I trade for “non-terrible hitting catcher”. I know he’s out there somewhere. I’m generally really terrible at trade scenarios, but the Carlos Beltran chatter seems to grow a little louder each day. A  Beltran-Paulino package seems to make sense for the Giants.

4. The Giants are the only team left in the NL without a player with 10-plus homers. As a team, the Giants rank 13th in the NL in AVG, OBP, and SLG. Do you expect the offense to improve, or are the Giants simply a team predicated on pitching and defense?

It’s hard to see the offense improving much. That could be the pessimist in me, but key performers from last year like Aubrey Huff have been really, really bad. I think for better or worse, the Giants have to win with their pitching. That strategy leaves for a lot of 2-1 wins (and loses) and it can be incredibly frustrating at times. The good news is that Pablo Sandoval is having a terrific year with the bat (.363 wOBA) and a guy like Brandon Belt provides the chance for above-average offense. Whether or not the Giants will play Belt with regularity is another question entirely.

5. Much has been made about the emergence of Ryan Vogelsong. Are you aware of any reasons the Giants were able to find him and fix him?

Vogelsong’s season is truly one of those reasons why I think we all love baseball so much. To call it improbable seems like a huge understatement. We’ve sliced, diced, and examined his season a few times on the website and I think we always come away scratching our heads. His stuff is good; he generally throws a FB 90-92 with good movement that he’ll pair with a solid curveball. He also throws a slider and changeup. What has made his season has been the control and command of his pitches. This is a guy that was walking 5.9 batters per nine last year in AAA — and now he’s walking 3.06 per nine in the majors.

It’s all predicated on his control. In short: it’s an amazing story that I’m not sure how to explain. I kind of like it that way, but his stuff is good, he’s not doing it with smoke-and-mirrors.

6. Do you think the Giants could take down the Phillies in the playoffs again as they did last year?

Sure. The playoff format makes for interesting games and anyone can get hot at the right time. In last year’s playoffs the Giants were (or it felt like they were) constantly underdogs. In the end, they won the World Series. I think anyone would take their chances with the Giants’ pitching in a playoff scenario.

Bonus: Grab your crystal ball and tell us how you think this series will play out. The pitching match-ups are Lincecum-Worley, Zito-Hamels, and Cain-Kendrick.

Missing Halladay and Lee for this series is huge boost for the Giants. I’ll say the Giants can win 2-3; Lincecum beats Worley; Hamels beats Zito; Cain beats Kendrick.

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Many thanks to Chris for taking time to share his perspective as a Giants blogger. Jump over to Bay City Ball to see what I had to say from the Phillies side of things. The crew at BCB do a great job of analyzing the Giants using Sabermetrics. Check out Rory Paap’s recent post on the Giants’ bullpen — there is one chart that is mind-boggling. Here’s hoping the Phillies give them something new to write about.