Crashbag Vol. 17 – Do Not Seek The Treasure

Hey, it’s my first Crashbag. Hope it gives you a chuckle, or failing that, that at least you think I’m an idiot afterwards.

Mark Appel was a #1 overall pick and now someone has asked a question about whether he’ll have as good a career as a guy who posted one and one fifth career WAR (I averaged BRef and Fangraphs…for…science). That this is even a realistic question is just a brutal assessment of Appel. Harsh. Poor guy.

I liked Condrey in ’08 – he was reliable-ish, and threw a pretty good ground ball rate over 69 innings, (interesting), while lacking an out pitch that could have helped him out of some jams. Though even one more out would have ruined that “interesting” season, so… Continue reading…

Cash Bag, Vol. 16 – What Makes a Good Draft?

The Phillies have played 12 of 15 games against the Mets and Nationals and have come out of those games with a 5-7 record (and a positive run differential). Not bad for losing your starting left fielder, having a starting pitcher arm explode, and watching Jeanmar Gomez do exactly what we expected him to. This week deals with none of that. Instead, I go down a draft wormhole, and a questioner gets some moving advice.

Next week, Brad (@bxe1234) will be doing the Crash Bag while I am Philly.

@ethan_witte: What makes a draft class a success? Having multiple players secure multiple WAR over a career, or just one or two guys that are really good?
@JesusZoidberg: If you get a prospect from a draft, and then trade him for a legit player, but the prospect fails, is that a bad pick(draft)?

I have two different definitions for the minimum for a successful draft class. The first is that it gets you an above average regular either from the players in it or in trade. The second is that it gets you an average regular and some ancillary pieces. If you get a first division regular or borderline all-star and nothing else, that is a success. If all you get is a bunch of bench players or middle relievers, that is not a successful draft, but it is also not a complete waste. With that in mind, I went back 10 years to go through the 2007 to 2014 drafts, since the 2015 and 2016 drafts have barely had time to play and grow. For each class I have divided it into players who reached the majors, notable prospects, players still in the minors, and players traded. Continue reading…

Cash Bag, Vol. 15 – Is Ben Davis a Hot Dog?

Everyone have a great weekend, as the weather heats up and the Phillies play the Nationals and Mets every season until the end of time.

For now the best place to ask questions is on Twitter, either @ me (@Matt_Winkelman or @CrashburnAlley). But you can also reply in the comments here and I will will have some sort of better way for future mailbags.

@KeithWinder: If each CSN Phillies broadcaster was a backyard bbq food item, what would they be?

I may have a low opinion of the Phillies booth, which is one of the worst in the league. Last year they were watchable about 50% of the time (when Matt Stairs was on), and it has only gone downhill from there. Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 14: Can the IronPigs Beat the Phillies?

The major league season is underway and the Phillies don’t look great once again (it has also only been 4 games, so let’s not panic). But it is never too early to ask questions about who is part of the future or where the Phanatic should play defensively.

Before getting into the questions, if you are feeling depressed, just follow this link and feel better.

For now the best place to ask questions is on Twitter, either @ me (@Matt_Winkelman or @CrashburnAlley). But you can also reply in the comments here and I will will have some sort of better way for future mailbags.

@RubyTheTreat: If you were to invest in a Phils shirsey today, what would your top 5 choices be? Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 13: Smooth Center Fielders

By this time next week the Phillies could already have lost many games, but for now they are undefeated in games that matter. With the 25 man roster set, all we have to look forward to this weekend is minor league rosters and praying that no one gets hurt before the opening day ace-off between Jeremy Hellickson and Scott Feldman.

For now the best place to ask questions is on Twitter, either @ me (@Matt_Winkelman or @CrashburnAlley). But you can also reply in the comments here and I will will have some sort of better way for future mailbags.

@Long_Drive: In your opinion do we have any kids on the farm that reach the majors at age 21 or below?

Reaching the majors by your age 21 season (it is much harder to report on actual age at the time of call up) usually means one of two things. You are either really good, or you got off to a young start. Since the 2006 season, 8 players made it to the majors by age 19, 31 by age 20, and 115 by age 21. Now some of these players only came up for a brief cup of coffee, others are Mike Trout. But what got me interested is that the only Phillie on the list was Maikel Franco, but he had actually turned 22 by the time he was promoted. A lot of this was a combination of bad drafting by the Phillies, coupled with trading everyone away. So who could be the next guy to do it? Here are the players 21 or younger in my top 30 prospects: Mickey Moniak (18), Sixto Sanchez (18), Franklyn Kilome (21), Cornelius Randolph (19), Adonis Medina (20), Kevin Gowdy (19), Arquimedez Gamboa (19), Jhailyn Ortiz (18), Daniel Brito (19), Cole Stobbe (19), Carlos Tocci (21), Bailey Falter (19), and JoJo Romero (20). Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 12: Gym Teachers and BlueClaws

This is my first attempt at a Crash Bag and I am already off to a great start with posting it a day later than intended. In the past I have done mailbags more focused on answering lots of questions and talking about many topics about the current team and minor league system. That is not the Crash Bag, the Crash Bag is something different, it is more tangential, it is more fun, and that is what I plan on having here. It may take some time for me to grow into my own voice, but that is really all part of the fun of it.

For now the best place to ask questions is on Twitter, either @ me (@Matt_Winkelman or @CrashburnAlley). But you can also reply in the comments here and I will will have some sort of better way for future mailbags.

@nurseintime: Which minor league team will be the best to watch after the draft?

Lakewood and it isn’t really close. The BlueClaws are going to be absolutely loaded with high upside talent. They aren’t going to roll through their league Lehigh Valley might, but that will be because they are going to be so young. Right now my best guess is that the starters are. Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 11: WBC, HOF, and Mascot Fights

This week, we come to you in the middle of March Madness to deliver you the Crash Bag. In this week’s edition, we actually talk mostly about baseball with discussions about actual players and their performance. That’s how you know baseball season is nearly upon us. In the spirit of the first question here, I have to put in a plug for the World Baseball Classic. If you’re not watching yet, fix that post haste. While Spring Training baseball brings its own simple joys, the WBC is real, competitive baseball. I’ll admit that I never watched it until this year, but, now that I have, I’m absolutely hooked. If you like the World Cup, the Olympics, or any other sort of international athletic competition, the World Baseball Classic is for you. This has been a public service announcement.

@Matt_Winkelman: MLB says they are replacing the WBC with a US only tournament between states, what state wins?

The primary contenders aren’t surprising: Texas, Florida, and California. For the purposes of a tournament, I’ll throw in a 4th team as a dark horse: North Carolina. Let’s look at their lineups, top-3 starting pitchers, and top bullpen arms:

Position California Florida Texas North Carolina
Catcher Travis d’Arnaud Mike Zunino Cameron Rupp Minor Leaguer
1B Freddie Freeman Anthony Rizzo Brandon Belt Ryan Zimmerman
2B D.J. LaMahieu Daniel Murphy Anthony Rendon Brandon Phillips
3B Nolan Arenado Josh Donaldson Matt Carpenter Kyle Seager
SS Troy Tulowitzki Manny Machado Trevor Story Corey Seager
OF Christian Yelich Trea Turner Charlie Blackmon Wil Myers
OF Giancarlo Stanton Ian Desmond Randall Grichuk Cameron Maybin
OF Adam Jones Keon Broxton Hunter Pence Dustin Ackley
SP Kyle Hendricks Chris Sale Clayton Kershaw Madison Bumgarner
SP Stephen Strasburg Zack Greinke Noah Syndergaard Chris Archer
SP Gerrit Cole Jacob deGrom Scott Kazmir Alex Wood
RP Jake McGee Cody Allen Tyler Thornburg Carter Capps
RP Addison Reed Wade Davis Brandon Finnegan Seth Maness
RP Zach Britton Sam Dyson A.J. Ramos Bobby Parnell

For North Carolina to win, they would rely heavily on Madison Bumgarner post-season magic and the performances of the Seager brothers. They don’t have the depth, though, to reliably be able to overcome any poor performances from their stars.

Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 10: A Foray into Guesses at Probability

Can you feel it? Real baseball is not only growing closer, as is typical of this time of year, but it is actually already upon us. The World Baseball Classic is on out televisions, though, so far, only at weird times for our East Coast sensibilities. I have to admit to being a skeptic about the WBC entering this year’s tournament. I had never watched it before, and with the relative dearth of major league players competing, I wasn’t optimistic about the quality of play. I was wrong. It’s great. There are rally plantains, a Mensch on the Bench, and generally, people having obvious fun playing baseball at a high level. You should tune in.

That said, there are no WBC questions in what follows, but there are questions about Phillies and major league baseball more generally.

@PompeyMalus: What have you seen in Franco so far? Signs of improved approach or no?

Spring Training is a difficult time to gauge any changes in a player’s approach at the plate. While it’s tempting to make a big deal about him seeing fewer than two pitches per plate appearance this spring, the fact is that just about every player is seeing minimal pitches. If you take a look at the Phillies Spring Training stats, it turns out that Franco’s two pitches per plate appearance is actually right in line with everyone else, if not sort of high for the team.

Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 9: Milestones, Brock, and Baseball

When the Crash Bag came to these pages last week, we were merely excited about the return of baseball to our televisions that very afternoon. This week, we have seen that base balling firsthand. On account of that, perhaps, the Crash Bag was full with questions about baseball. Weird, I know. But it’s the truth.

@PompeyMalus: Should I be excited about Brock Stassi?

Excited isn’t exactly the word I would use for it, but whatever floats your boat. At the end of the day, all we’re talking about is Stassi potentially breaking camp as the 25th man on a 25 man roster. That’s exciting enough. If he continues to hit like he has for another week or so, we’ll be in the midst of a full-fledged roster battle.

Maybe there’s still something to be excited about long-term with Stassi, but I guess I don’t really see it. He’s entering his age 27 season and has been generally old for his level–especially as a prospect–throughout his entire professional career. Unlike another recent old-for-his-level star Darin Ruf, Stassi’s level of success throughout the minors would be best described as merely above-average. Ruf, if you’ll recall, essentially hit like Mike Trout (by wRC+) before making his major league debut.

Continue reading…

Crash Bag, Vol. 8: The Hairy Walk of Time

Baseball is back! The college baseball season started last week and, just yesterday, players wearing Phillies uniforms played a baseball game in Clearwater, Florida. Those players mostly weren’t guys we’ll see much of in 2017, but they were Phillies. Today, marks the beginning of Grapefruit League play, so we’ll see even more Phillies.

Baseball is back!

@Phrozen_: is the IBB change a) the absolute worst idea ever or b) only the second worst idea ever after the DH?

Not to be pedantic, but we’ve had a lot worse ideas than the IBB change in the history of human civilization. Slavery, genocide, non-24-hour diners to name a few. The IBB change is small bones on a wider scale.

More to the point, I was sort of with you when this rule change was floated out as a possibility last week. I immediately thought of instances where runners advance on an IBB wild pitch or a pitcher gives up a hit when the intentional ball drifts back over the plate or a runner on third steals home on an overly nonchalant lob. Those instances will be sorely missed, to be sure. But they are so rare that we get, what, one of these events every three to five years?

Continue reading…