The move all but fills out the Opening Day bullpen, and assuming health across the board – something that obviously can’t be taken for granted with this club – the bullpen will likely be constituted as such:

• Jonathan Papelbon
• Antonio Bastardo
• Chad Qualls
• Dontrelle Willis
• Michael Stutes
• Kyle Kendrick
• One of David Herndon/Justin De Fratus/Michael Schwimer/Jose Contreras

It’s something of a makeshift ‘pen, even with the big arm looming at the end. Will Bastardo return to midsummer form? Is Willis going to keep demolishing lefties as a reliever? Can Stutes keep the walks in check, and can Kendrick keep my blood pressure below 180/110?

As for Qualls, what are we to make of a downward-trending strikeout rate? The past four seasons have seen a steady drop in Qualls’s punch-outs per nine, migrating from 8.7 in ’08 to 7.8, 7.5 and 5.2(!) in the following years. Going by Fangraphs’ pitch type data, Qualls is not leaking velocity on his fastball or slider.

One thing that stands out for Qualls over the past two years is the amount of contact batters are making on pitches out of the zone, detailed here. Hitters are chasing Qualls’s stuff more over the past couple of years, but they’re making far more contact, fouling or putting balls in play that, when missed in a two-strike count, would be strikeouts.

The third column in the above picture, denoting movement by Qualls’s sliders across both horizontal and vertical planes, show pretty significant drops from 2010 to 2011. While that’s not entirely conclusive, it seems to lend itself toward the idea that, while Qualls’s velocity may not be fading yet, the crispness of his breaking stuff seems to have lost an edge last season.

Perhaps this is a correctable issue. Qualls is a veteran who knows what he needs to do to prepare for the season. If Rich Dubee and Co. see something in the spring that needs addressing, hopefully it’s corrected then, and Qualls turns into a relative steal for a ‘pen that could use him at his best.

As you all know and are probably tired of hearing by now, the 2012 season will be Cole’s last under team control in his current contract situation. His three-year, $20.5M extension ended at the conclusion of last season, and ’12 will be his final year of arbitration eligibility. The logical comparison often bandied about is Jered Weaver‘s five-year, &85M extension, signed this past August. The numbers bear out a close comparison. Hamels is almost 15 months younger, but both pitchers have about six years of Major League service, separated by 0.08 in ERA, 114 strikeouts, 16 walks and 29.2 innings. Despite concerns – Weaver with his cross-body delivery and Hamels with Minor League arm trouble – both have been durable, starting 30-plus games each of their past four seasons.

Only one is signed past the 2012 season, though, and it ain’t the one pitching for the Phillies this season. And that is quickly becoming a problem.

CSN’s Jim Salisbury recently posted a piece which details the club’s focus in signing Hamels to a one-year contract. That it’s even come to that is damning. I’ve held to the belief for a couple years running now that, if Hamels is allowed to play the 2012 season as a walk year, he will indeed walk right out of Philly to a new home at season’s end.

Consider Cole’s possible competition on the free agent market next winter. Obviously, things could change depending on how players perform, injuries and other miscellany throughout 2012, but at this moment, this is the 2013 free agent market. Matt Cain will command money. Zack Greinke should also probably expect to receive a healthy contract, but not on the same level. The next tier includes guys like James Shields and Ervin Santana, both of whom have reasonably affordable options (or, in Shields’s case, may be traded for and extended by their new team). They would be a half step below Hamels to begin with, but if they don’t reach the market, that’s more power yet to Cole.

The point is, Hamels and Cain are the heads of the class. There’s little potential of a Ryan Madson-type positional market flooding preventing Cole from cashing in. And guess who’s lurking? The Yankees, for one, who have an obvious need and plenty of dinero. The Red Sox had some rotation issues, too. And that’s not to mention any number of teams that wouldn’t love to add an ace before he turns 30.

It’s all gut feeling at this point. What I may be feeling, you may be sensing the opposite. And sure, a decent one-year deal could keep Hamels placated and away from running the gauntlet of an arbitration hearing. But he doesn’t own this city any type of loyalty or discount, especially to a fan base which, on a maddeningly large scale, wanted him run out of town after an unlucky 2009 and a front office that seems to think Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon are worth major bucks, but not him. This is the game you play and the risk you take.

Hamels is entitled to every penny the market will bear, and he will get it, especially if he stays healthy and posts another non-2009. Call it fatalist or pessimist, but don’t forget to call it realist. The Phillies are big boys and can spend with the big dogs, but with more than $100M already committed to just six players in 2013, adding Hamels at potentially $17M-plus – a higher AAV than Weaver – will make the luxury tax loom even larger than it already does.

It’s an unnecessarily complex situation, given the Howard and Papelbon deals, but it’s complex nonetheless. Call it a kneejerk reaction, but as of this second, I don’t like the way this is shaping up one bit. Not one bit at all.

The latest addition to this big, happy family is none other than long-time Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, he of the intense pitcher-face, long pauses between pitches and often exuberant reactions to saves. He’s also a pretty darn good pitcher. Sure, giving four guaranteed years and $50 million – I’m still in the stage where I wince while typing that – to any reliever that isn’t prime Mariano Rivera is sure to raise as many questions as it does eyebrows.

For now, though, we’ll put that aside to check out some of the things that have made Papelbon so effective.

Papelbon rebounded from a shaky 2010 to post another solid season in ’11 with great peripherals. He’ll only pitch 60-70 innings a season, but rest assured that those innings will be good ones. Papelbon finished his fifth consecutive season of logging 10-plus strikeouts per nine, but what makes him more than just a simple power pitcher is that he actually commands his stuff; not only that, he loves to challenge hitters and still has the stuff to blow by them.

In 2011, Papelbon lived in the upper part of the zone, as shown to the right. The vast majority of the pitches from the belt to the letters were fastballs, and seeing as his average fastball was 95 mph, it’s a bit easier to see how he can overmatch hitters.

There’s interplay with Papelbon’s stuff, too. You can have a fastball that touches the mid-90s and still get knocked around (ask Danys Baez) but you need secondary stuff to make it effective. And vice versa: offspeed and breaking pitches can be ignored or sat on if the hitter knows there’s an ineffective fastball backing it up (ask 2009-11 Brad Lidge). With Papelbon, the mid-90s fastball is supported by an excellent splitter, a pitch that drastically changes the batter’s eye level and throws off timing.

Again, bear in mind how often Papelbon hits the upper part of the zone with the heater, than take a look at the map to the left.

The splitter was a pitch Papelbon was eschewing in favor of more heaters, as there was talk of the pitch possibly leaving his shoulder sore. The splitter is a notoriously taxing pitch. Really, with that fastball to lean on, it’s no surprise he was still effective, but when the splitter is a prominent part of the arsenal, Papelbon is that much more dangerous.

The slider is still something of a work in progress. One of the big reasons why Papelbon wasn’t converted into a starter – as he was for the majority of his time in the minors – was the lack of an effective third pitch. As a reliever, two plus pitches can definitely be enough, but if Papelbon can continue to demonstrate an effective slider in 2012 and beyond, he should remain very, very effective for a while. Perhaps, as it improves, he can even use it against left-handed batters (from 2010-11, Papelbon threw his slider to lefties only three percent of the time) and be a three-pitch guy to all hitters.

While 2010 was likely considered his worst year – even though, relatively speaking, it wasn’t all that bad – a big rebound in 2011 almost certainly played a big part in the Phillies front office seeing Papelbon as worthy of four guaranteed years and a lot of money. Via Inside Edge, here’s a comparison of a few next-level categories for Papelbon between 2010 and 2011.

click here for a larger, more readable version

Fastball command was improved, as was efficiency and the amount of hitters’ counts that ended up resulting in outs. What really jumps out at me, though, are the “Dominance” and ”Overall Effectiveness” sections. Papelbon was good in both areas in 2010, to be sure, but the numbers go off the charts in ’11.

What all of this amounts to is a fine relief pitcher who should accumulate plenty of quality outs. Whether he’s worth the kind of money he’ll be paid will almost certainly be in question for the life of the deal, but there’s little denying that the Phils have added a fine piece to their relief corps.

I bring this up because, whenever I would play with my good buddy Baumann from Phillies Nation, Cuddyer would always have the biggest impact on the game. He’d make diving plays at third base. Come up with a solid double to drive home Lew Ford. You know, 2005-type things.

Of course, the Michael Cuddyer of 2011-12 bears no resemblance to Fake Michael Cuddyer from ’05. Since the end of that ’05 season, Cuddyer has logged all of 107 innings at third base (all in 2010) and spent most of his time in the outfield and at first base. He doesn’t seem like a logical fit to supplant Placido Polanco, so we’ll move forward assuming that a potential signing of Cuddyer would mean time in the corner outfield spots and at first. He’s spent some time (read: very little) at second base, too, but with one of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez expected on the roster come Opening Day, there’s already a more viable backup option there.

Cuddyer handles lefties very well. His .311/.403/.589 slash in 176 PA against them last year is Victorino-esque, and his career OPS is more than .100 points higher against lefties than righties. That isn’t to say he’s unplayable against right-handers; he’s just especially dangerous against southpaws. And that’s an antidote to something Phils fans had heard about for a couple of seasons now: how the club and everyday lineup is too lefty-heavy. And really, the complaints aren’t exactly unfounded as it relates to LHB performance vs. LHP.

A look at Cuddyer’s In Play Slug heatmap (right) against lefties in 2011 shows some decent plate coverage. The cold spot down and in is a little surprising to see from a RHB against a lefty, but the strong showing in the heart and on the outer edge - from the top to the bottom of the zone, too – does compensate. Cuddyer also seems to fare better on pitchers in the lower portion than anything at the letters and up.

The drawback to that, naturally, is that Cuddyer can find the high pitches a bit too appetizing. Inside Edge reports Cuddyer as having a chase rate on pitches up and out of the zone near 50 percent, a weakness pitchers are sure to target with two strikes during the season. Pitches in on the hands also tend to draw Cuddyer’s attention often. It will be interesting to see how long his hands have the speed to turn on pitches in, especially if his next contract carries him through his age 35 season.

Cuddyer is also a candidate for the infrequently-used right-handed Ted Williams shift. When he puts the ball in play to the outfield, he’s pretty equal-opportunity. Most of his home runs tend to be pulled, but he’s not dependent on left field for hits past the infield.

Ground balls, on the other hand, are a bit of a different story. The Inside Edge spray chart (left) shows that, on balls in play since the start of 2010, Cuddyer pulls the ball a great deal. Now, this might not make a difference, again considering how little the right-handed shift is used. Either way, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright (maybe?) and Chipper Jones should be on their toes if/when Cuddyer comes to the plate.

What we have in Michael Cuddyeris a nice player; a guy who plays some different positions (none particularly well defensively) who appears appetizing to the Phillies for a variety of reasons, none of which should be confused for being the best player available. He would be a nice addition at the right price – as any player would – but to me, Cuddyer makes the most sense on a two-year deal. A three-year deal to Raul Ibanez ended on a rather sour note, Placido Polanco looks to be slowing as he enters his third year and Joe Blanton has a nerve issue in his pitching arm as his third year approaches. Three-year deals for Cole Hamels, Carlos Ruiz and Shane Victorino, plus the recently expired Ryan Madson, look to provide counterbalance. But those latter four were all at least three years younger than Cuddyer is currently when they signed. Apples and oranges, etc.

Would Cuddyer be a good fit for this Phillies club? I tend to think so on the surface. He’s no star player, but he does represent an upgrade from Raul Ibanez on both sides of the ball. The thing I’m struggling with is Domonic Brown’s eventual place in all of this. Signing Cuddyer to a multi-year contract – paired with Hunter Pence’s two remaining years of team control – leaves no place for Brown this season. Now, Ruben Amaro has stated that he wants Brown to basically spend the whole year in Triple-A, so that may be a moot point for ’12. Moving forward, though, what’s the plan? Does Cuddyer become your third baseman after Polanco’s deal expires, with Brown finally slotting in a corner outfield spot? Another wrinkle to the saga of the once-top prospect being curiously handled. It will be interesting to see how Cuddyer’s potential addition affects Brown’s future in Philadelphia; a future that seems muddier every week.

• The Nationals may be interested in signing Madson: source.

Paul’s Take: Hm. Where have we heard this one before? An impending Phillies free agent being lured to the nation’s capital on the promise of a career payday? Well, it seems Ryan Madson may be the next such Philly player, joining Jayson Werth, to consider fleeing south. Madson has emerged as one of baseball’s better relievers over the past few seasons – 204 strikeouts in 191 innings since the start of 2009, and an even 4:1 K:BB ratio – but the Phils may have used their Get Out of Jail Free card with Madson’s agent, Scott Boras, when they signed him to a three-year deal before that ’09 season. That deal bought out two free agent years, and Madson may be itching to see what he may have missed out on earlier.

Ryan’s Take: I’m already wondering whether it is worth signing a reliever to Madson’s actual market value. If the Nationals are going to rerun the 2010 offseason and top that value by 30% or more, I’ll be bidding another bittersweet farewell. Madson, by all accounts, loves pitching in Philadelphia, but it sounds so far as if the offers he’ll be seeing this winter will be impossible to turn down. Amaro’s recent comments about looking outside the organization for a veteran reliever portend a serious overpay on the part of the Phillies. Bill was absolutely right when he wrote that the Phillies would do well to be thrifty in assembling the 2012 bullpen, given all we know about relievers and the market for them. Madson’s possible departure, while a definite loss, gives them an opportunity to re-allocate money to other areas of need, and presently, if you believe Amaro’s media face, the Phillies may squander that opportunity entirely.

Bill’s Take: Not much that I can add here. Regular readers of the blog know how much of a Madson fan I am, but I don’t want to keep him at a Boras price. Even if the Phillies raise payroll a bit, I think they would have  hard time adequately plugging every hole while committing, let’s say, $12 million for Madson starting next season. I also have no qualms about going into 2012 with Antonio Bastardo or Jose Contreras as the closer. The one downside I see to passing over Madson is that Amaro said he wants to get a veteran closer from outside the organization. When I hear that, I think of Heath Bell and cringe.

• Charlie Manuel ponders an upgrade at the hot corner: source.

Paul’s Take: Third base for the Phillies is something like the goaltender position for the Flyers. Back in the day, there was a stalwart at the position, but recent years have found little stability or above-average production. Placido Polanco, signed before the 2010 season, has been hurt and producing offense more typically found in middle infield positions. As Aaron Gleeman mentions over at Hardball Talk, Polanco’s .702 OPS is 20th among third basemen since the start of 2010. Polly is owed $6.25M in 2012, and he’ll almost assuredly remain the starter when healthy.
What might behoove Amaro would be a search for a quality backup. The Phils missed out on acquiring guys like Wilson Betemit who, while not a superstar, did provide the Tigers with 15 extra-base hits in 40 games after being acquired. Polanco had 19 extra-base hits all season.

Ryan’s Take: The Phillies have a lot on their shopping list right now, including some pieces that probably take a higher priority than a position where there is already an established starter. To his credit, Polanco provided excellent defense even while playing hurt in 2011. But, facing possible offensive regression by Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, and with Ryan Howard’s 2012 effectiveness in serious doubt, that might not be enough on it’s own. Normally I would accept him retaining the full-time job as a foregone conclusion, but to hear a manager as fiercely loyal as Charlie Manuel even mentioning an “upgrade” makes me wonder if falling short of the NLCS this season may have put him in a more pragmatic state of mind. Considering that Polanco posted a .364 wOBA last year against left-handed pitching, compared to just .281 against right-handers, might a platoon be in order?

• Jimmy Rollins’s Contract Status – Last updated: 10/24, 9:15 a.m. – 2 items
• Placido Polanco/Third Base – Last updated: 10/13, 12:45 p.m. – 1 item
• Ryan Madson’s Free Agency – Last updated: 10/24, 11:00 a.m. – 1 item

A more detailed description of what the Compendium is after the jump:

Hi, folks! I know you’re all very excited to be dealing with offseason drama already after the Phils’ loss in the Division Series, but cheer up! We here at the Alley have come up with a way to keep you informed and updated on every hot topic involving your Phils this winter.

We’re calling it the Compendium. One post will serve as a home base for every offseason issue, with each of said issues getting their own dedicated post. If news breaks – whether it involves Jimmy Rollins and his contract negotiations, the search for a left fielder or possible progress toward an extension for Cole Hamels – that corresponding post will be updated with the news, with the added perk of something you can’t get anywhere else: evolving analysis and opinions on these topics from us here at the Alley as the news breaks.

Perhaps I’m inflating our egos a bit too much to think of that as the main selling point, but the hope with this idea is that, with links to every offseason issue worth discussing contained in one single post, you’ll have a go-to destination when you want to hear a take (or three!) on a given bit of news.

We’ll keep you updated as best we can. Hopefully, this winter yields productivity and an improved 2012 club. Go Phils.

• Five years is probably too much for Phils, Scutaro an option?: source. – 10/24

Paul’s Take: Marco Scutaro would certainly be an offensive upgrade from the replacement suitors we know in Wilson Valdez and (gulp) Michael Martinez. Scutaro wasn’t necessarily a factor of Fenway Park, either, as his road OPS is comparable to his home split; it was even higher than his home OPS this year. Scutaro won’t fulfill the needs of people fixated on the decrease in age, but on a one-year deal, he would seem a suitable replacement. At this point, to me, he seems a more suitable replacement for 2012 than Freddy Galvis.

• Jimmy Rollins wants a five-year deal: source. – 10/12

Paul’s Take: While I don’t think he’s going to get five years, I have little doubt that he means business and won’t hesitate to sign elsewhere if the price is right. Hey, this is his last big contract, after all. I don’t think it would be wise to give Jimmy – with a .316 OBP since ’09 – five years. Three makes more sense, given his defense should be worth it.
Some advanced metrics have Rollins showing signs of declining range, partially as a result of injuries and partially, perhaps, as a result of age. It’s difficult to discern between the two right now. Phillies fans are aware of Rollins’s stout defensive abilities, to be sure, but there doesn’t seem to be reason to think a healthy Rollins isn’t still a valuable commodity, even with a slowing bat.

Bill’s Take: I’m with Paul. I’m comfortable giving Rollins three years, even with an option for a fourth, but I get uncomfortable guaranteeing four or more years to a player of Rollins’ caliber. Don’t get me wrong, I find Rollins to be very valuable especially given his position, but he is no Troy Tulowitzki. I do, however, grimace at the thought of going year-to-year with one of the many crummy free agent shortstops around or, worse yet, relying on an unproven Freddy Galvis, who has just one potentially-fluky season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley under his belt. Rollins talked about five years, but that’s what he should do — it’s Negotiating 101. I have a hard time seeing him getting five guaranteed years, and for the Phillies’ sake, I hope I’m right about that.

Well, that’s not entirely true. I thought I knew better. I thought what I knew about baseball was all there was to know. I figured a hitter was probably best judged by his average, home run and RBI totals. I figured pitchers were probably best judged by their records, ERA, saves and strikeouts. These things were all I knew and all I counted on to tell me what I wanted to know about baseball players.

About a year prior, I had stumbled upon a site called SomethingAwful. Longing to entertain the geek in me, I found a lot of their articles funny, the weekly Photoshop showcase sublime and the occasional animations to be pretty good in their own right. The site featured a forum, one that required a one-time, $10 charge to register and post (reading was free). I thought the concept insane – pay to post on a forum, when the rest of the Internet is basically free…no thanks – and resisted even examining what I was refusing to pay for.

Until the summer of ’06.

I finally gave in and poked around that forum, which contained a sports-centric subforum called “Sports Argument Stadium.” Okay. That seemed up-front enough. So I poked around some of the general baseball discussion threads, and found that this was no ordinary place. These people talked about weird things, statistics with acronyms I had never heard of and couldn’t pronounce, opinions on players I had paid no attention to or regarded in a completely different light.

This was my introduction to the world of sabermetrics – a school of thought I choose to refer to as “advanced stats” moving forward – and it was odd. Adam Dunn is actually a pretty darn good all-around hitter? On-base percentage is a more viable tool than batting average? RBI are dependent on things other than a batter just being good?

I hesitated. I was resistant to accepting these things – concepts and beliefs that mostly flew in the face of what I had come to know and understand as a baseball fan all those years prior – and especially all at once. But the thoughts were implanted. I had seen them, and they had struck me so oddly that, though I did not believe them to be true yet, I started looking for examples in box scores. Sort of like the arrow in the FedEx logo; you see it once, and you never miss it again. Yeah, Adam Dunn struck out a lot, but he did not make outs on the whole as frequently as a lot of players. On-base percentage was the true measure of how often a guy didn’t make outs, not just the times he got a hit. The big RBI guys tended to be good hitters, sure, but they usually had some high on-base guys – read: Equally as good or better hitters – in the order right in front of them, and so on and so forth. I was surprised at how right these strange forum people actually were.

I found myself newly fascinated with baseball. Having always been big into numbers – compiling statistics and reading box scores for all sports, not just baseball, was always fun to me – there seemed to be an entirely new set of things to learn. It was something fresh; an entirely new way to take in the game I had always known. I didn’t understand it all – hell, to this day I still don’t get about one of every three advanced stats they’ve got out there – but it seemed interesting enough and delivered by people who sure seemed like they believed in it. I wanted to see what color these glasses were tinted.

I say this because an article by a prominent, national columnist was released Thursday to the eye-rolling that’s becoming more and more prevalent each and every time one of these pieces comes out. By “these pieces,” I refer to those that attack the notion of using more numbers to evaluate players or supplement one’s viewing experience, seemingly without the slightest inkling of caring or wanting to know about these other numbers and what they’re trying to contribute to the bigger picture. Lots of people – on both “sides” of this new era of baseball – want to read pieces like this whenever they come out. Advanced stat proponents want to read it, no matter how many like it they’ve seen before, to see how this latest argument is structured (or fling some impassioned riposte back). Traditional stat folks read it to agree with it. Those in the gray area in the middle read it to be in on the joke, or ignore it altogether and watch people get mad over it anyway. Some posit that these numbers, this new math, interferes with one’s ability to enjoy baseball; that it saps everything beautiful and enjoyable out through the seams, out of every fleck of infield dirt and through the tips of every strand of Kentucky bluegrass.

Really, none of this debate interests me anymore. I used to be in the shoes of whoever writes these anti-advanced articles – though not to the point of active resistance – and I used to see the game the way they currently do. It was a fun time, and I enjoyed the hell out of baseball. Then, I came across advanced numbers, and…I still enjoy baseball. Perhaps it has something to do with my age; having been a conscious baseball fan for a time far shorter than most national voices at the time of my introduction to this new set of evaluators perhaps left me in a better position to be accepting of it. This isn’t about that, as I’ve been introspective and self-analytical enough for the moment.

The point remains that my fondness for this game remains intact. Baseball is entertainment, but there is absolutely still a sense of romance in the air around a ballpark. I feel it, I sense it. My emotions have not been converted into a formula. I look at baseball and its players differently than the aforementioned columnist, but that does not mean I regard his viewpoints with disdain or superiority. I do not feel as though I have the right to enjoy this game more than anybody else, but more importantly, I do not care how anyone else chooses to see the game. Do you or I or anyone else need things like xFIP or WAR to justify our appreciation for the game? Of course not. That does not mean it needs to be right or wrong. By all means, enjoy the game without paying attention to the same numbers I do. I do not care. My enjoyment of this game is neither dependent on nor threatened by yours, and I would hope, in the end, you would feel the same.

I come off as a cynical bastard on the Internet, seemingly unstoppable in my quest to be doomsaying, paranoid and put off by Ryan Howard. To be fair, though, I’ve always been that way in some capacity. I want my teams to win, but fear angering some sort of cosmic deity at the first sign of confidence. I dare not be obnoxious about my team’s historic success for fear of sudden damage to Roy Halladay’s rotator cuff. I dare not dangle the luxury of my hometown team – I grew and up and have had no permanent residence farther than 20 minutes away from the stadium complex by car even to this day – in front of fans now experiencing what I experienced from the mid-90s until, well, the summer of 2006. This is how I watch the game and how I root for my team. Everyone else can find their own way to enjoy it; whatever works. My opinions of players are sometimes shaped by stats, but in the end, the essence that my fandom is boiled down to is and always has been the same: It’s love.

I love baseball, and advanced stats played a part in ushering that love along. I find my fascination of the game furthered by the seemingly countless ways with which I can compare players and assess value. And that’s just me. I don’t shove this down anyone’s throat or force all those I come in contact with to see things my way or no way at all. Following someone on Twitter is a totally voluntary thing, after all. Everyone is entitled to see things in their own way. To find that love for the game that I’ve found in whatever way they so choose. I wish that of every fan. I don’t understand the need to attack or belittle someone because they value RBI more than on-base percentage. Knowing what I know now, do I think it’s a less-than-ideal approach to valuing players? Sure, but that’s my take. I am a fan, not an executive. I say what I say, think what I think and feel what I feel because I am driven by my own attachment to this game. At the heart of the matter, that’s what every one of us is. For me, advanced stats played a huge role in strengthening that attachment. For you, I hope you’ve simply found a way to keep enjoying the game.

We rally around our respective nines throughout the summer because, for one reason or another, we are drawn to them; to each other. There’s a sense of camaraderie lost between groups of fans over some numbers. What difference does it make how you or I take pleasure in a night out at the park, or form our opinions of players from our couches? In the end, we all want to win. That’s a common bond that no number should fray. I don’t weep for some forever-lost sense of community, because I believe that merging these traditional and advanced sects is still absolutely feasible. What’s more, I think it’s right. Fans deserve to celebrate together, to boo together, to love the game together. Nothing about this influx of numbers or new age of evaluation should ruin that, and the name-calling and stereotyping associated with all that is negative about these debates has no place in the game. Numbers have not ruined the game for me though they have certainly changed the way I watch baseball. I view that change as positive; I feel as though I know more now than I ever could have dreamed of five years ago. Baseball is a beautiful game deserving of love from all its fans, and a mutual understanding that everyone won’t see the game the exact same way, but that that’s okay.

I know that I love baseball, funky stats and all. I know that, out there, everyone who has put fingertip to keyboard to write a single word about this game feels that love of the game. I know that people who don’t use advanced stats love the game, too. What’s important is not caring about how the other guy watches the game, but how you find enjoyment in it. What really matters, in the end, is how you keep that love alive for yourself. Leave those with differing viewpoints alone if you don’t care for it. Picking fights does nothing productive and only serves to widen the growing gap between the two dominant schools of thought. Really, in the end, all anyone around here remembers from 2008 is the 0-2 slider to Eric Hinske and the celebration that followed. No one remembers Pedro Feliz’s WAR or Geoff Jenkins’s RBI total; no one cares about Jamie Moyer’s strikeout rate or how gritty Eric Bruntlett was. The elation of being fans as one is what resonates with us from that October, and it had absolutely nothing to do with whatever sugarplum number fairies might have danced in the heads of a given fan walking down Broad St. following the parade’s exodus to the stadium. The game exists to unite, not divide, and to provide entertainment to everyone, however they might interpret it.

Love it however you’ll love it. It’s a beautiful game, numbers and all.

I’ve finally had enough.

I took it rather well for a few days, this incessant whisper from a fraction of the fanbase that Domonic Brown is not just trade bait, but should be dealt. The reasoning seems varied, but it seems to boil down to the notion that Domonic Brown is not now – nor will he ever be – better than Hunter Pence, and, as such, the two should be swapped.

It seems that, if one area of this very good Phillies club should be upgraded, it’s the offense. With Carlos Beltran off the market as a new member of the San Francisco Giants, the best possible upgrade is no longer available. Enter Pence, whose skillset and rumored availability put him squarely in the second tier of available outfield bats. Pence is enjoying a productive season, hitting .307/.354/.467 with 11 HR in 426 plate appearances entering Thursday. Pros and cons of his ability and season stats abound, but this post is not about Pence.

No, this post is about the perception of Brown. Brown, a man who entered his first Major League game to a standing ovation and entered the 2011 season as a near-consensus top five prospect in all of Minor League baseball, now finds himself rumored to be on the trading block. None of us knows for sure if he’s really being dangled, thanks to the airtight nature of the Phillies’ front office, but the very thought of giving up so soon being embraced so easily by some fans discourages me.

Dom Brown, he of the 23 years and 328 days of age, is not Jason Heyward. He has not emerged as a regular starter and set the world on fire. What he has done, though, is accomplish far more than perception seems to be giving him credit for.

• .251/.343/.406 season slash. The AVG is 5th among NL rookies, the OBP is 3rd and the SLG is 4th.
• 5 HR in 201 PA. Not great, but when you consider Brown’s hamate injury in the spring and the fact that Pence has 11 HR in 426 PA, it doesn’t seem so bad.
• Be team-controlled. This isn’t so much an accomplishment as it is a characteristic. Brown will not qualify as a Super Two after the 2012 season, so his arbitration years won’t start until after 2013. He will make in the neighborhood of $450k in the meantime.

That last point stick as the most salient, to me. Across last year and this one, Brown has played just 87 games – little more than half of one season – and his production is on par with what Raul Ibanez has done in twice the playing time. Since that’s not so flattering these days, I’ll say instead that Brown’s .749 OPS ranks 4th among Phillies regulars (behind Victorino, Utley and Howard) and 5th overall (also trails Mayberry). His walk rate is the highest on the team, and he has nearly as many walks as he does strikeouts.

All of this, and he’s cheap for two more full seasons. Cheap, on a team with the following players entering arbitration or hitting free agency between now and the winter of 2012: Roy Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Cole Hamels. Some of the players named are just money off the books, but they’ll need replacing. Is it that much of an upgrade to add Hunter Pence for two seasons – likely at upward of $20 million combined in that time – than have Brown for five more? Sure, this team has a “window,” but it sure isn’t closing when this season is over. Is it worth tying up that much money in a good-not-great player when better-to-star caliber players will need replacing or new contracts?

Better yet, why are some so quick to give up on Brown as a lost cause? If anything, Philadelphia should be somewhat accustomed to slow starts. Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and even Mike Schmidt started their Philly careers without blowing everybody away, yet with patience, coaching and experience, they are turned into excellent players. Brown has the potential to be the next Philly star, better than the guy he’s rumored to possibly be traded for. If only we’re given the chance to see it happen.