The other team involved in the A.J. Burnett talks was the Philadelphia Phillies. Obviously would’ve had to clear Blanton to make it work.

The New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates are very close to finalizing a deal that would send Burnett to the Pirates in exchange for prospects Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones. The Yankees would pay $20 million of the $33 million remaining on the right-hander’s contract. The news about the Phillies’ involvement is only interesting for drawing inferences.

The first thing we can draw from it is that the Phillies are intent on dealing soon-to-be free agent Joe Blanton before the end of spring. That is obvious from Buster’s tweet, but even if his salary didn’t need to be cleared, he would have to be moved anyway. With the other four rotation slots locked up (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Vance Worley), Burnett would have had to take over Blanton’s spot.

Blanton made eight starts last year before succumbing to an elbow injury in May, and remains an enigma going into spring training. Owed $8.5 million, the Phillies will use spring training to show off Blanton’s health and ability. In the event Blanton draws interest, the Phillies would prefer that they be relieved of some or all of his salary, which means a straight salary dump is the most likely scenario.

Secondly, the interest in A.J. Burnett means that the Phillies prefer Kendrick as insurance or as a swing-man rather than a de facto fifth starter. It has been no secret that the Phillies are very appreciative of Kendrick’s services over the years, but even the team that willingly decided to pay him close to $3.6 million this season realizes his applicability in the rotation is limited at best. Kendrick has a career 4.65 xFIP, including 4.42 last year, despite a 3.22 ERA. Of course, the Phillies would gladly move Kendrick to the #5 spot if it results in significant salary relief, but those scenarios are few and far between.

Acquiring Burnett would have been superfluous, but he would have provided an upgrade in the back of the rotation. The oft-criticized Yankee posted a 3.86 xFIP last year, although his 5.15 ERA was due to two big factors: a lackluster walk rate (nearly four per nine innings) and a skyrocketing home run rate (17 percent of fly balls). Furthermore, Burnett would have been under team control through 2013. Hamels aside, the Phillies would have had cost certainty for the most important elements of their 25-man roster going into next season.

More concerning is Utley’s declining performance after July. Given Utley’s nature to run full-speed for every routine out and dive for every ground ball, the obvious explanation is that the second baseman simply runs out of gas with two months to go.

In the past, the Phillies have hinted that they would like to give Utley more time off, but it never happened. At the end of December, one of the three New Year’s Resolutions I picked for the Phillies was to give Utley more scheduled rest. Utley means more to the Phillies at close-to-100-percent in 130 games than he does at below-70-percent in 150 games (if the Phillies are lucky enough to see him in that many games, anyway).

Don’t forget that Utley’s durability doesn’t just affect his bat; it affects his base running (29 total stolen base attempts in the last two seasons compared to 23 in 2009 alone) and his defense (his range runs over the last two seasons, per FanGraphs, were the lowest since 2006). Perhaps the days of Utley being a 7-8 win player are over, but he can still reach the 5-6 win plateau with the correct application.

Note: On Baseball Today, I said that Michael Martinez was in the infield when Roy Halladay threw his perfect game in 2010. I meant Juan Castro!

I will be on WRTI-FM today as well, though I am not aware of when my spot will air. This post will be updated when I find out.

Update: Here’s what WRTI-FM plans to do with the interview we taped today:

The plan right now is to do a feature on it.  We call it News and Views.  It will probably air closer to the start of baseball season [...] last week of March or first week of April.  It’s essentially three two minute pieces that air throughout the day on our station and the whole thing will be on our website.

Domonic Brown and the Forked Road

Last year, the sky was the limit for the young outfielder. Jayson Werth had vacated right field, leaving an obvious spot for the top prospect. However, the Phillies didn’t let him take a cut in the Majors until May 21. While he looked better than in 2010, he didn’t catch fire in the way Jason Heyward did with the Braves. By the end of July, Brown was back in the Minors. When rosters expanded in September, he was recalled, but had just one plate appearance in the final month.

Now, in 2012, Brown is expected to learn left field in the absence of Raul Ibanez. He will start the season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley but GM Ruben Amaro said that a very productive spring training could be Brown’s ticket back to the Majors. Just two years ago, if you had said that Brown would be struggling to hold a job with the Phillies, many would have called you crazy. For those very reasons, the Phillies refused to include Brown in any trade, whether for Roy Halladay, or Cliff Lee, or Roy Oswalt. As cliche as it sounds, 2012 is absolutely a make-or-break year for Brown, and it starts in just a few days. His success or failure will tinge many of the transactions both large and small the Phillies have made in recent years.

The Return of Joe Blanton

Yes, Joe Blanton is still a Phillie, though perhaps not for long. The Phillies have made other teams aware of Blanton’s availability, but the right-hander enters spring training in red pinstripes. Blanton appeared in only 11 games last year (eight starts) due to an elbow injury. Once a #3, Blanton rounds out the rotation behind Vance Worley and is just a few bad starts from being nudged out by Kyle Kendrick. He has very little wiggle room, so he must prove he is both healthy and productive quickly. Blanton is in the last year of a three-year, $24 million contract, so the Phillies would prefer to recoup some value from the right-hander before his time is up.

The Twilight of Jim Thome‘s career

Thome took less than 1,600 trips to the plate as a Phillie, but he quickly became a legend in Philadelphia sports history. The Phillies signed Thome going into the last year in Veterans Stadium, signaling that ownership was serious about putting together a competitive team. Thome hit his 400th career home run at home on June 14, 2004 against Jose Acevedo of the Cincinnati Reds, a memory that ranks with the final out of the 2008 World Series, Ryan Howard’s Ruthian home run against Mike Mussina, and Jimmy Rollins‘ 20th triple on the last day of the 2007 regular season.

Now 41 years old and having spent almost all of his time since 2006 in the American League, Thome is expected to take the field at least once a week in the absence of Howard. No one knows, given his age, durability, and lack of fielding practice exactly how Thome will do upon his return to the National League, but all eyes will be watching, for sure. Now with 604 career home runs, eighth-best in baseball history, Thome needs five to tie Sammy Sosa and 26 to tie Ken Griffey, Jr. While the latter is highly unlikely, watching Thome inch his way further into the 600′s will be plenty entertaining.

The New Look Bullpen

The Phillies shopped for a bullpen at Tiffany’s, despite my insistence they instead browse around the thrift store. They signed Jonathan Papelbon (spurning Ryan Madson at the same time) to a four-year, $50 million contract, easily the most lucrative contract given to a reliever during the off-season. Dontrelle Willis and Chad Qualls were also added to provide veteran experience along with the recovering Jose Contreras. Although many young arms emerged last year (out of necessity), the Phillies felt more comfortable relying on experienced players than asking Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, and David Herndon to lead the way again.

Qualls had a shaky 2011 as his K/9 dropped from 7.5 to 5.2, perhaps a symptom of the comfort provided by Petco Park in San Diego. Qualls has great control and induces plenty of ground balls, so he fits in quite well as a middle reliever, assuming the declining K-rate was just a fluke. Meanwhile, Willis has had a very shaky past, but profiled well as a LOOGY in recent years. Facing nearly 150 left-handed batters in 2010-11, Willis posted a 2.32 xFIP against them in 2010 and 2.01 in 2011. It remains to be seen if manager Charlie Manuel will use Willis in this way, however.

The Cole Hamels Contract Situation

When we spoke of Hamels’ potential free agent eligibility prior to the end of the 2011 season, it was simply assumed that the Phillies and Hamels would agree to something rather quickly. The two sides still haven’t reached an agreement as the Phillies don’t want to offer Hamels more than five years and the Hamels’ camp feels the young lefty defies comparisons to pitchers who have signed more team-friendly deals such as Jered Weaver (five years, $85 million). As a beacon of youth on an otherwise old roster, retaining Hamels is key to the Phillies’ competitiveness in 2014 and beyond. Additionally, the Phillies’ best pitching prospect, Trevor May, has yet to throw above Single-A, so the reinforcements may not be coming from within. Once a goat, Hamels is beloved by the city of Philadelphia and fans would like nothing more than to see the drama of his potential free agency avoided.

Can Vance Worley Retain His Swag?

Worley was one of the more interesting players in baseball last year as a result of his deception. He had the most called strike threes in baseball last year, tied with teammate Cliff Lee (who had exactly twice as many total strikeouts) with 61. The charts below show the location of Worley’s called strikes by batter handedness.

There is no evidence that called strikes are meaningful, so it seems to be just an interesting statistical anomaly from the 2011 season. He posted an ERA 70 points below his SIERA, which tells us he isn’t likely to repeat that performance this season. However, he has built up a sizable fan base in his short career, so many are pulling for a repeat performance. Unfortunately, Worley has a lot more in common with J.A. Happ than a Cy Young candidate. Prolonged failure from Worley could mean more breathing room for Blanton or an opportunity for Kyle Kendrick.

Ryan Howard’s Recovery

It’s tough for any team to lose their cleanup hitter, but particularly so for the offensively-declining Phillies, who are trying to retain their dominance over the National League. They don’t have another hitter who slots into the #4 spot in the lineup as comfortably as The Big Piece did, nor do they have a prototypical first baseman. Rather, a combination of Ty Wigginton, Thome, and potentially John Mayberry will see time at first base as the Phillies bide their time until Howard’s return. Right now, a return after the All-Star break seems like a realistic goal, but the Phillies would be ecstatic if he beat the timetable a la Chase Utley.

Which story will you be following throughout the year? Let us know in the comments.

Here is the link for the league if you’d like to check it out. A quick summary: 14-team mixed 5×5 standard roto. The draft will be held online on Sunday, April 1 at 7 PM ET. Don’t sign up if you know you can’t attend the draft.

The buy-in will be $20 via Paypal (obviously, no refunds). The winner will get two-thirds of the pool (less Paypal’s transaction fees) and the runner-up will get one-third, rounded to the nearest $5 or $10. I will be the only Crashburn representative playing, and if I earn a prize, I will donate 100 percent of it to a charity of my choice.

If you are interested in signing up, leave a valid email address with a comment below (put it in the email field, not in the message field, so it is hidden from the public and from spam bots). Those who participated in last year’s Yahoo! league will be given preference. If you were among them, list your team name from the league. Remaining players will be drawn from a hat or a random number generator. Once selected, you will have a week to pay the buy-in or your spot will be forfeited to someone else.

Depending on the level of interest, I may start another league. As the first league will be traditional, the second one would be a Saber-oriented league (OBP instead of AVG, for instance). If you’d prefer to play in the Saber league, note this in your comment. You may only play in one of the two leagues, so choose wisely.

Thanks for your patience. Next time, I’ll outsource the league setup as I’m quite bad at it.

UPDATE: I have created a Saber league. It is a 14-team mixed roto league using the following categories: OBP, SLG, net stolen bases, and RBI for hitters; quality starts, shut-outs, K/9, and saves for pitchers. The draft will be held at the same time as the other league: Sunday, April 1 at 7 PM ET.

UPDATE #2: Participants have been randomly selected, so check your email for notification. Please submit your $20 entry fee by Feb. 29 at 5 PM ET, otherwise you forfeit your seat. If you didn’t get an email, you weren’t selected.

The chatter throughout the off-season centered on the Ryan Madson and Jonathan Papelbon situation, as well as the still-unfinished Cole Hamels contract issue. Perhaps just as importantly, 2012 could be Shane Victorino’s last year in Philadelphia. The center fielder, now 31 years old, will earn $9.5 million this year in the last year of a three-year, $22 million contract. Since becoming a Phillie in 2005, Victorino emerged from a bit player to a two-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner, providing value in all facets of the game. His bat was vital in the 2008 NLCS as the Phillies trampled through October competition en route to their first championship since 1980 and he became a premier base runner under the tutelage of former first base coach Davey Lopes.

PECOTA expects Victorino to regress in 2012. Victorino projects to go from a .301 true average (TAv, where .260 is the baseline) to .276. In terms of WARP (the Baseball Prospectus version of WAR), Victorino projects below 3 WARP each. That isn’t bad by any means, but it’s not at the 2011 echelon. Despite the drop-off in production, though, Victorino is far better than any other options the Phillies have.

In the event Victorino is unable to be signed to a contract extension, the Phillies will have to pick from players currently with the organization such as Domonic Brown (presently learning to play left field), John Mayberry, and Tyson Gillies (who played in just three games last year). Otherwise, the Phillies would be forced to draw from an uninspiring free agent class with B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn at the top, or acquire an outfielder via trade, something that will be difficult to do with the 25th-best farm system according to ESPN’s Keith Law.

Logically speaking, it is just as important for the Phillies to retain Victorino. Roy Halladay is under contract through at least 2013 and most likely ’14 as well, while Cliff Lee will be around through at least 2015. With an easier ability to patch the back of the rotation via free agency and minor trades, as well as the emergence of Vance Worley and the expected emergence of prospect Trevor May, the starting rotation is less of a priority. Of course, there is some risk involved with Halladay and Lee that is much less present with Hamels as mentioned here.

That is not to say that these issues are mutually exclusive. The Phillies have $108 million on the books for the 2013 season according to Cot’s Contracts, so they could certainly fit in $20 million for Hamels and $15 million for Victorino without hamstringing themselves in other areas. However, it does illustrate that the one issue that seems to be overlooked is the potential changing of the guard in the outfield — it is a very big deal, and something that will have a profound effect on the Phillies’ competitiveness as their so-called window shrinks.

Ladies and gentlemen, children of all ages, it’s time for a little bit of cost analysis. We’ll be looking at two pitchers, both who are contracted to the Philadelphia Phillies for the 2012 season, but who serve far different roles. In one corner, we have Harry Leroy Halladay III, the indomitable ace, fantasy zoo companion and rock upon which the starting rotation is built. The workhorse of the rotation signed a contract that was valid from the start of this past season until the end of the 2013 season with a vesting option for 2014. For all intents and purposes though, we’ll only count the guaranteed years, which are worth in aggregate of $60 million. In the other corner, it’s recent Bostonian import and new closer Jonathan Papelbon. This past offseason, he signed a four year contract worth $50 million.

On the surface, the Phillies now have two of the elite pitchers in the league at the same absolute dollar amount. If anything, Papelbon, who right now is at the very least the second best closer in the game after Mariano Rivera, has been gotten more cheaply than Halladay, not only in total, in average as well. Papelbon’s $50 million is spread out over four years instead of three. That would be fine and good if both pitchers had similar roles in the game, which they clearly do not. As established before, Papelbon is a closer, Halladay a starter. Closers pitch in one inning per game on average, whereas a top line starter like Halladay will average seven with a healthy sprinkling of complete games mixed into his season. With that knowledge presented, the amount of innings that Halladay will pitch over the length of his contract, even with the year of shortfall compared to Papelbon, will dwarf his 9th inning counterpart.

Over his career, Halladay’s full season average for innings pitched stands at 240, while Papelbon’s is at 66. Assuming those averages stand for the entire lengths of each pitcher’s contract (and yes, I’m aware that Halladay already pitched a season of his contract, but just bear with me here), the cost per out for each pitcher stands at about $27,000 for Halladay compared to $63,000 for Papelbon. Papelbon’s individual outs more than double Halladay’s. To put things in perspective, the average per capita income for Philadelphia County is a shade over $16,500.

That, of course, operates under the assumption that every out in a baseball game is equal. From a cold, hard statistical standpoint, yes, that ends up averaging out to be true over the long haul, but there are situations where some outs are probably worth more. For example, getting Matt Kemp out is definitely a tougher task than Yuniesky Betancourt. That being said, over the long haul, both Halladay and Papelbon will more than likely have relatively equal distributions of how hard their outs are per inning pitched, so it feels moot. Arguing from an intangible standpoint, there does seem to be a lot more pressure in the 9th inning. Even though there are plenty of arguments that suggest this is a myth, let’s pretend the closer mentality is real.

Papelbon will undoubtedly pitch more 9th innings than Halladay, but he’ll do so with a whole game’s rest. Halladay completes an above average number of games per season; in the last five years, he’s averaged over 8. He obviously enters the game in similar situations, where the game is still pretty close (in blowouts either way, he’s probably out of the game for someone mopping it up for him), with the added strain of having recorded 8 innings worth of outs. Even though Papelbon will have worked on average five to six times more 9th innings than Halladay would have, Halladay’s final frames would almost invariably have a far greater degree of difficulty because of arm strain and fatigue. That gives a little perspective into how “elite” a closer can seem in the face of a real elite pitcher.

So, with that all being presented, maybe all outs should cost the same. If that’s the case, then what should an out cost? If they all cost what the Phillies were paying Halladay, then Papelbon’s contract would be slashed from the $50 million down to $21.3 million. If every out was valued at Papelbon’s costs, then Halladay’s contract balloons up to $136.1 million, the average value of which would make him the highest paid player in the league by far and more expensive than some teams’ entire payrolls. The most galling thing is this is only comparing the elite level of pitchers. My guess is if we compared the lower tiers, the costs would become even more outrageous.

This isn’t the first time I’ve gotten on my horse to decry the overvaluing of the closer position, but at the same time, when the Phillies are going to have to pay valuable dollars to players who’ll have more total value to the team than Papelbon like Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels and Hunter Pence, and when they have holes in the lineup at positions like left field and first base, it just looks silly that there’s so much money tied up into a guy who impacts less than five percent of the regular season. If Hamels ends up in Yankee pinstripes, or the Phillies have the ultimatum in front of them of whether they keep Pence or Victorino in future offseasons, the blame can be placed almost solely on the rash spending on what is a luxury position.

Ed. Note: Thanks to Thomas for the guest post. Check out his blog The Wrestling Blog as well as his Twitter, @tholzerman.

The most surprising projection, though, involves Domonic Brown. Once a top prospect, his future with the Phillies is shrouded in question marks, but PECOTA foresees him posting a .271 TAv and 1.4 WARP. While that is not amazing, it is better than all of the other options the Phillies have in left field. John Mayberry isn’t far behind at .270 TAv and 1.4 WARP as well.

The other left field options are Laynce Nix (.263, 0.3), Ty Wigginton (.257, -0.1), and Juan Pierre (.237, -0.2). Nix hits right-handed pitching significantly better than left-handed pitching, while Wigginton and Pierre don’t show much of a platoon split. The jury is still out on Brown, but in his 280 career MLB plate appearances, he has shown as vast a platoon split as Nix despite being lauded for his ability to handle left-handed pitching in the Minors.

Is it worth keeping Brown in the Minors just to learn how to play left field better — he has nothing more to gain from hitting sub-standard pitching in Triple-A — at the expense of reducing Brown’s trade value and losing his production in left field? Brown is unarguably better than Nix in all facets of the game, and exponentially better than Wigginton and Pierre would be in the same role. Even if the Phillies platooned Brown with Mayberry, their production in left field would be better than it has been since Raul Ibanez in the first half of the 2009 season.

Ruben Amaro said that, unless Brown had an amazing spring training, the left fielder would start the season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Brown situation has been a subject of much debate, but it is evident that the Phillies would be much better off breaking camp with Brown in left field, even in a platoon.

There’s a tendency to declare an immediate “winner” in every trade, and even when taking a long-term view of a blockbuster deal involving a superstar in his prime being swapped for a multi-prospect package, it’s usually fairly easy to determine who benefited most. When it comes to this trade, however, the question is more like who suffered least. And even that’s tough to say, because everyone involved went bust.

Four years into their six-year, $137.5 million investment in Santana, the Mets have gotten just 88 starts of ace-caliber pitching and an uncertain future. And for their in-his-prime ace, the Twins ended up with 1.5 seasons of a replacement-level Gomez and a year of Hardy that they later squandered, 1.5 seasons of Rauch by way of Mulvey, nothing from Humber, and whatever hope still remains that Guerra can turn into a useful reliever.

Naturally, I thought about the recent trades the Phillies have made to acquire Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), and Roy Oswalt. In all three transactions, the Phillies held on to their jewel, outfielder Domonic Brown. For Halladay, though, the Phillies relinquished Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek, and Michael Taylor. Taylor was quickly flipped to the Oakland Athletics for Brett Wallace, who was later traded to the Houston Astros. Drabek had a forgettable start to his Major League career, posting a 6.06 ERA in 157 innings last year. d’Arnaud, however, ranked as one the Jays’ #1 prospect, a five-star player, according to Kevin Goldstein of BPro. About d’Arnaud, Goldstein wrote:

The Good: d’Arnaud has all the tools to be a star player. He has a quick bat, outstanding hand-eye coordination, the ability to hit .280-.300, and the strength to add 25-plus home runs annually. He’s very athletic for a catcher with a plus arm, and he moves well behind the plate. He is a 40 runner.

The Bad: d’Arnaud has the potential to be a plus defender, but he still needs to improve his receiving skills and the quickness of his release. He’s made some strides in his plate discipline, but it could still use refinement.

The Phillies acquired Lee from the Cleveland Indians for four prospects: pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and catcher Lou Marson. Carrasco has been more or less replacement-level in his 192 big-league innings while Knapp accrued only 28 innings in 2010 and missed all of 2011, causing him to be left out of Goldstein’s rankings for Indians prospects. Donald posted decent numbers in 143 plate appearances last year, but it was fueled by an unsustainable .423 BABIP and he has no other skills aside from making contact. Marson was slightly above replacement-level but only because he played decent defense — his .271 wOBA was less than acceptable.

Finally, Oswalt came to the Phillies from the Houston Astros for lefty starter J.A. Happ, shortstop Jonathan Villar, and outfielder Anthony Gose. The Astros sent Gose to the Jays for first baseman Brett Wallace, a deal that has thus far worked out well for them. In 385 innings with the ‘stros, Happ has been awful, posting a 5.05 ERA. Villar showed improvement with Single-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi, earning him a #5 spot on Goldstein’s Astros prospect rankings. Goldstein wrote about Villar:

The Good: There are top-100 prospects who don’t have Villar’s upside, but he’s very far from it. He’s a 60-65 runner, good for 30-plus stolen bases, plus range at shortstop, and a very strong arm. He added a power element to his game in 2011 with 14 home runs, and has at least average raw power.

The Bad: Villar’s game might be best described as “out of control.” His newfound power led to plenty of bad habits at the plate; he became pull-conscious, adding to a strikeout rate that was already a considerable concern. He also has a history of making weak contact. As capable as he is of spectacular plays at shortstop, he’s just as likely to boot a routine play, and scouts question his concentration on both sides of the ball.

It’s safe to say that, so far, the Phillies look like bandits with these trades. Only one player has the potential to provide any real surplus value (d’Arnaud) while most of the others have floundered. The Phillies got three aces in their own right: Lee led the Phillies to the 2009 World Series and then was used to bring three prospects to Philadelphia in a trade with the Seattle Mariners (pitchers Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez, and outfielder Tyson Gillies); Halladay was the ace of the 2010-11 rotations, tossing both a perfect game and a post-season no-hitter in 2010; and Oswalt was by far the best #3 starter in baseball for the Phillies in 2010-11.

It makes one wonder, though, given Santana’s fall from grace. In 2008, Santana posted a 2.53 ERA in 34 starts and finished third in Cy Young voting. The next year, he made 25 starts with a 3.13 ERA. In 2010, he made 29 starts with a 2.98 ERA. And then… nothing. Santana missed all of 2011 with a left shoulder injury and portends to miss at least the start of the 2012 season. The Mets still owe Santana $55 million and paid him $22.5 million last year for exactly zero innings. Needless to say, it is an albatross of a contract and, given the recent financial issues surrounding the Mets franchise, a heavy burden.

While the Phillies have most likely seen the last of Oswalt, they still owe Halladay at least $40 million through 2013 (and his 2014 $20 million option is guaranteed with good health). Lee is owed at least $109 million through 2015 (includes a $12.5 million buyout for 2016). Halladay and Lee could just as easily succumb to a career-threatening or even career-ending injury. Given that the two were acquired strictly for the purposes of winning a World Series, an unapproached goal as of now, such a scenario would crush the Phillies. Remember, Santana was 32 last year; Lee was 32 as well and Halladay was 34. Fortunately, both pitchers have steered clear of arm injuries over the past five years, something Santana did not do prior to 2010.

In their respective two years with the Phillies, Halladay and Lee have been nothing short of terrific. However, the Santana case shows just how a trade that looks fantastic at the time can go sour very quickly. Such is the risk teams take when they go into “win now” mode.