Crashburn Roundtable: The Young Kids

I was out of town this weekend chasing the eclipse so we have an abbreviated Roundtable this week as it is just Adam and I weighing in on some kids with the major league team.

We are all now living in the age of Rhys Hoskins. What are your first impressions of the young slugger?

Adam: He’s ok, I guess. If you like home runs and walks and stuff. Of course, he’s only made 55 plate appearances so I’m not going to quote wRC+ or anything, but he’s hit for years and he hasn’t stopped. Hoskins seems to be a reliable source of middle-of-the-order production for the next several years. I like a first baseman with power and a decent glove who doesn’t hit too many grounders and doesn’t strike out too much. His peak probably won’t be as high as Ryan Howard‘s, but he also probably won’t completely fall off a cliff in his decline years.

Matt: I am impressed by how calm and simple everything is. His swing has so little wasted movement and it allows him to just punish all mistakes. He has also been patient enough to let those mistakes come to him and not swing at bad pitches in the zone. Obviously the home run numbers will come down, but he also is going have some doubles and singles fall, so the ISO will come down, but there is still a lot of room for batting average growth. I still don’t see a superstar here, but it obvious that the ability is there for him to be the Phillies #3 or #4 hitter for the foreseeable future. Continue reading…

Rios Up, Eflin Hurt, and Velasquez Done for the Year

Today the Phillies…

  • Transferred Vincent Velasquez to the 60 day DL
  • Placed Zach Eflin on the 10 Day DL retroactive to 8/19
  • Purchased the contract of Yacksel Rios
  • Recalled Nick Pivetta as the 26th man to start game 2 of the doubleheader

We knew the Nick Pivetta recall was coming and there was a good chance that Eflin going to the DL given the whispers after he left his last start. The Phillies have not yet given a prognosis on Eflin’s recovery. It leaves the Phillies down yet another starting pitcher. With the double header today, the Phillies need another starter anyway, so Mark Leiter Jr will take Eflin’s spot and Thompson will take the hole in the rotation caused by the double header.

To bring up Rios, the Phillies needed a 40 man spot, and so Vince Velasquez’s season comes to an end with this:

Continue reading…

Crashbag Vol. Something: Seems To Me We’ve Lost Count

Let’s start with one from in-house.


Maybe I could come up with something. Maybe. I’ll need to spin that “d” and cover over part of it to make an “F”, I think.


Damn, a baseball question? Ok, I guess. Cesar Hernandez sure did turn himself into a player, eh? I will admit I assumed he would never amount to more than a non-shortstop bench player, and those jobs are hard to find if you also lack any power, which I assumed he always would. But he’s racked up nearly 7 fWAR over the last two years, even with some missed time this season. His speed has still helped him plenty, even if he hasn’t been an overwhelming threat to steal – he’s 13/16 this year, much better than his 17/28 last year. He’s MLB Top Ten in infield hits and Fangraphs’ speed stat, and led the league in triples in 2016.

But what to do with another potential first-division starter in Scott Kingery waiting behind him? One of them will have to go, and I think it’s obvious that Cesar is the choice right now. His value this offseason, with 4 years of control remaining, will likely never be higher. I’m far from an expert on “what kind of return do you get from…”, but assume with all their high-minors talent, the Phils are looking for big leaguers to fill rotation spots or back-end bullpen roles, and/or minor leaguers who don’t need 40-man roster spots yet. However the second base market shakes out this offseason, Cesar is a mid-first division guy. That’s an upgrade for a lot of teams. Continue reading…

Dutch

Eleven days ago, the Philadelphia Phillies family lost #10. Not only was Darren Daulton the heart and soul of the unforgettable 1993 World Series run, he was probably the best catcher in Phillies franchise history. To commemorate and honor Dutch, I collaborated with fellow Crashburn old-timer Dave Tomar.

Your general impressions of Darren Daulton?

Dave: My impression of Darren Daulton is a function of my experience as a lifelong Phillies fan. I was born in early 1980, so I was a drooling blob when the team won its first World Series. I was there, so it’s etched somewhere in my psyche, but I don’t remember it. What I remember most from my childhood is futility, the season-in/season-out assurance that the Phillies would be mere background noise every summer, and forgotten by autumn.

So what did that mean if you were a diehard fan, if you loved the team but never dared let yourself dream of success? You had to find the personalities and love them, root for them, share their pain at another season ended in vain.

Nobody during that era of futility was more worthy of our love or adulation than Daulton. He came up in 1983 and inherited team leadership when Mike Schmidt retired in 1989. It would take a few summers (and honestly, a bunch of steroids) for Daulton to reach his full potential. He banged out his first All Star season in 1992, a year in which the Phillies lost 92 games and finished 26 out of first. If 162 games is a brutal test of endurance for a player on a losing team, you couldn’t tell by watching Daulton. He led like a superstar on a team of middling to mediocre talent. And he did it through nine knee surgeries. Nine knee surgeries.

If I have only one takeaway from this fact, it’s that Daulton was a straight-up badass. Continue reading…

Phillies Option Nick Pivetta In Smart Piece of Roster Management

Today vs the Padres Nick Pivetta struck out 11 Padres in 5+ innings. It wasn’t the sharpest day ever as he walked 3 and let the Padres steal all of the bases. It was still an encouraging start for a rotation that has not been sharp of late. But this happened.

On the surface this is odd as the Phillies cannot recall an optioned player for 10 days unless it is to replace an injured player, but it is actually a sneaky little bit of roster manipulation. Nick Pivetta’s next start would be scheduled for Tuesday August 22nd. The Phillies have a double header vs the Marlins on Tuesday August 22nd. They also have an off day on Monday August 21. That means Thursday’s starter Aaron Nola can pitch a game of the double header. More important than that is that the Phillies can call up a 26th man for one game of the double header. That player is not subject to the 10 day restriction. This means the Phillies can recall Pivetta on Tuesday to make his normal start. In the mean time they would get another bullpen arm for the Giants series over the weekend (or another bat with Odubel ailing).

The Phillies still have a problem on August 26th vs the Cubs, but they could call someone up and then resolve all the 10 day restrictions on September 1 when the rosters expand.

Phillies Are Having Second Half Pitching Problems

Young pitching was supposed to be a strength of the Phillies this season, but as we all know, pitching can be unpredictable. As of right now, the Phillies have a team ERA of 4.56 on the season, which is good for 20th in baseball. On a more granular basis, their starters are actually 17th in baseball, and their relievers are 23rd. The reasons for these declines are many and include injuries, trades, and just being bad. However, baseball does not accept excuses in place of starts, so the Phillies still have to figure out a pitching staff to get through the end of the season. So how do you do that when you don’t have any veterans and you aren’t very good?

The one pitcher in all of this that the Phillies don’t have to worry about is Aaron Nola. In the second half he has a 1.85 ERA, and in 10 starts since allowing 5 runs to Arizona on June 16, he has a 1.71 ERA over 68.1 innings.

The other pitcher who has rejoined that category is Jerad Eickhoff. He hasn’t been as dominant as Nola, but in his 7 starts since returning from the DL, he has a 3.18 ERA over 39.2 innings. He is no longer hemorrhaging home runs, and his strikeout rate is back up as well. Continue reading…

Crash Bag Vol. 32: The Infield of the Future and Boozin’ With Phillies

I would like to start this Crash Bag off by revisiting my well-thought-out, certainly-not-off-the-cuff Bobble-WorthinessTM rankings from a few Crash Bags ago. With Odubel Herrera’s recent sizzlin’ hot streak, he’s on pace for nearly four wins this season. By my criteria from that post, Herrera is on pace to be legitimately Bobble-WorthyTM next season. PUT IT ON THE SCHEDULE, PHILLIES.

Stay tuned for more hard-hitting bobblehead analysis.

Continue reading…

Phillies Call Up Rhys Hoskins

Earlier this week the Phillies announced they were moving their best pure hitting prospect from first base to left field to accommodate Tommy Joseph staying at first base. I have a lot of thoughts about what the move means strategically, but what is done is done. What that move does mean is that the Phillies are finally promoting Rhys Hoskins, just as an outfielder and not a first baseman. For the second year in a row Hoskins is one of the best hitters in minor league baseball, and this time he is doing it in a more neutral environment as opposed to the hitting paradise that is Reading.

Without talking about position or league context, we need to talk about Hoskins the baseball player. At the plate Hoskins features a simple swing, he has a bit of a leg kick, but overall is swing is quiet. He gets good loft with it, but it also isn’t a complete uppercut. Most of his contact is going to be to the pull side, but he does have the power to go the opposite way. When he first came up there were a lot of questions about his raw power, and they are mostly fair as his power is probably plus, maybe it is plus plus. What he has done incredibly well over the years is to refine his approach and pitch recognition. This has allowed him to get the most out of his raw tools, and so while his raw power doesn’t measure up to Dylan Cozens, he is able to match him in actualized production. Hoskins is mostly a fastball hitter, but he will crush mistakes over the plate. He has less frequently expanded the strike zone in the upper levels, but can still chase breaking balls. The complete package is one fairly light on weaknesses. This season he has reverse platoon splits, but only 123 PAs against LHPs so it is hard to read too much into his relative struggles vs them, given that he crushed them in 2016. This year he has walked more than he has struck out vs RHPs which is a stark improvement on last season where he had a 50 to 97 walk to strikeout rate vs same side pitching. Overall he should be an average hitter (.260-.270) with a good on base percentage, and he has the power to hit 30+ home runs a year with an equal amount of doubles. He might have a bit more ceiling than that if he can maintain his AAA strikeout rate, but I would expect it to regress back towards 20% from the 15.8% it is at right now. Continue reading…

A 30 Game Nick Williams Check Up

On June 30th the Phillies finally called up a major hitting prospect. Since then, Nick Williams has hit .289/.325/.535 in the majors with 5 home runs in his 30 games. Williams’ arrival in the majors coincided with an improvement in the Phillies offense (it turns out everyone in the lineup was better in July). With Aaron Altherr’s repeated injuries, Williams looks to have a hold on an outfield spot for the rest of the season. So now 30 games into his season, how is Nick Williams holding up? Continue reading…

Crash Bag Vol. 31: Looking Back 3 Years

The trade deadline is over, and the Phillies traded nearly everyone they could and got some stuff back. The team is still bad, and a sweep at the hands of the Angels reinforced that the bullpen is a major problem and the starting pitching is shaky on days when Aaron Nola doesn’t pitch. But, let’s just forget about all of that and take a step back in time to talk about some prospects and some of your other questions this week.

@PaulSocolar: Your 2014 prspct list led w Crawford-Nola-Franco; top 10 also had Biddle-Sandberg-Dugan. Where would those 3s 2014 selves be on current list

I am just going to go for the whole list and not just the groupings of 3. For those that want to read 3 year old wrong opinions, here is the link, but for those with less time, here is my 2014 midseason top 10 (which I have no clue why I wrote it on June 24).

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Aaron Nola
  3. Maikel Franco
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Jesse Biddle
  6. Deivi Grullon
  7. Cord Sandberg
  8. Carlos Tocci
  9. Kelly Dugan
  10. Aaron Altherr

Continue reading…