Hoskins, BABIP, and Sustainability

The topic of Rhys Hoksins and sustainability is a big one, because no one believes he will hit 80 home runs a year, but they do want to know how real he is. Today The Athletic Philly wrote about Hoskins and sustainability and this set of paragraphs caught me.

The rest of Hoskins’ success at the plate is no fluke.

The average major league player has a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of around .300. Through his first 143 plate appearances, Hoskins’ BABIP is .257, suggesting he’s actually getting somewhat unlucky on the balls he doesn’t smash over the fence.The Athletic

BABIP might be one of the most misunderstood stats in baseball. One of the reasons for this is that it was at the center of a large pitching theory (DIPs). DIPs is the basis of FIP and it essentially says that a pitcher has no control over batted balls off of them. The major league average on balls in play is .300 and the assumption was that pitching BABIP trended towards .300 for pitchers over a large enough sample size. This also lead to a belief that batter BABIP actually trended to .300 over time as well. The reason for the trending on pitchers was that the large sample size of batters would average out. It turns out that pitchers have an influence on the type of contact off of them, and that different types of contact are hits at different rates. Continue reading…

The Phillies Youth Movement is In Full Swing

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That is the number of players 30 years old or older on the Phillies’ active roster after Daniel Nava was moved to the 60 day DL. Those players are RHP Luis Garcia and IF Andres Blanco. Last night the oldest player to take the field for the Phillies was 28 year old Cameron Rupp. The Phillies had two 22 year olds on the field in J.P. Crawford and Victor Arano. Their superstar right now is 24 year old Rhys Hoskins. This hasn’t been just a youth movement based on September callups, it has been a slow build all season with a final culmination as the Phillies head towards the end of the year.

Last night wasn’t the youngest the Phillies lineup could be, here is how they stack up right now by position.

Lineup: Jorge Alfaro (24), Cameron Rupp (28), J.P. Crawford (22), Maikel Franco (25), Freddy Galvis (27), Cesar Hernandez (27), Aaron Altherr (26), Odubel Herrera (25), Rhys Hoskins (24), Nick Williams (24)
Average Age: 25 Continue reading…