Crash Bag Vol. 31: Looking Back 3 Years
The trade deadline is over, and the Phillies traded nearly everyone they could and got some stuff back. The team is still bad, and a sweep at the hands of the Angels reinforced that the bullpen is a major problem and the starting pitching is shaky on days when Aaron Nola doesn’t pitch. But, let’s just forget about all of that and take a step back in time to talk about some prospects and some of your other questions this week.
@PaulSocolar: Your 2014 prspct list led w Crawford-Nola-Franco; top 10 also had Biddle-Sandberg-Dugan. Where would those 3s 2014 selves be on current list
I am just going to go for the whole list and not just the groupings of 3. For those that want to read 3 year old wrong opinions, here is the link, but for those with less time, here is my 2014 midseason top 10 (which I have no clue why I wrote it on June 24).
- J.P. Crawford
- Aaron Nola
- Maikel Franco
- Roman Quinn
- Jesse Biddle
- Deivi Grullon
- Cord Sandberg
- Carlos Tocci
- Kelly Dugan
- Aaron Altherr
My current midseason list is here.
- The first big question is 2014 J.P. Crawford vs Sixto Sanchez. Both were 19 years old and had just dominated Lakewood, but I think I am going to go with Crawford’s .295/.398/.405 line with 37 walks to 37 strikeouts.
- Aaron Nola had just been drafted #7 overall and was a polished college pitcher who was already in Clearwater, but here is where I go with the safety of the upper minors hitters, and I would slot him in between Kingery (3) and Alfaro (4).
- On August 1 of 2014, Maikel Franco was hitting .242/.293/.387 in AAA at age 21 (soon to be 22). Do you take Franco over Alfaro here? I don’t because of the positional advantage for Alfaro, but I could see it the other way. Franco’s youth over Hoskins gives him the edge for me.
- Now we have Roman Quinn, fresh off a major injury, now in center field and batting .256/.337/.365. Given where the injuries are now, I would take 2014 Quinn over 2017 Quinn, and would probably take him over Seranthony Dominguez.
- Jesse Biddle is next and he is just making a start in the GCL after missing a month to a hail induced concussion. At this point his season has just gone horribly, but there is still some talent in there. I think I would still take him over Thomas Eshelman (16).
- Next it is Deivi Grullon, who I always really liked and at this point was hitting .237 in Williamsport. I would probably take Arquimedes Gamboa (19) and Francisco Morales (20) ahead of him, because I like the offensive upside a bit better with Gamboa, and Morales’ arm could be really good.
- Cord Sandberg hit .186 in July and probably would have fallen on this list had I done it later. Sandberg still had a lot of shine on him at this point, and I think his comparison now is Cole Stobbe, who was unofficially 26 on my list. I like Stobbe a bit more, so 27 is where it is for Sandberg.
- Hey, it is 18 year old Carlos Tocci! Tocci was hitting .251/.302/.338 in Lakewood on August 1. He also would have and should have ranked higher than Sandberg, I will slide him in right at the same spot as Grullon, after Morales.
- This is tough mentally on me, because I really really liked Kelly Dugan. Dugan was hitting .278/.373/.403 in Reading at age 23. Andrew Pullin is in roughly the same situation and wrecked Reading. Dugan could play RF and Pullin is LF only. I think that is unofficially 29th for Dugan.
- A lingering AFL injury had put a damper on Altherr’s season. By the end of July, he had gone up to the majors as an emergency call up, but was back in Reading hitting .241/.298/.392 with 23 walks to 92 strikeouts. I believed in Altherr’s glove, but the bat was really ugly for a 23 year old in AA. Would I take him over Pullin? probably not, probably not over Kyle Young or Cole Irvin either. Aaron Altherr vs Elniery Garcia is tough, but give me the Rhineland Rocket at #31.
So to recap here is where the 2014 midseason list would fit in.
This does a much better job than I expected at showing where the depth of the system is. The system is deep in second and third tier prospects. These aren’t players you are expecting to be stars, but rather players you reasonably expect to contribute to your major league team.
@CTbott: in your opinion, which slash line is more valuable to a team – .251/.304/.415 or .225/.339/.376
This is a Galvis vs Crawford debate. But let’s throw that out, I am also going to throw out strikeout rate and BABIP since I have not been told them. By OPS these two lines are .719 and .715, so the real question is what do you value more, OBP or SLG? I will take the on base percentage, because it is plate appearances that don’t end in outs, which brings another hitter to the plate and gives you more opportunities to score. The .035 difference in on base percentage is 21 outs over 600 plate appearances, which is fairly substantial.
@MELKasinkas: Is it really reasonable to expect the Phillies to have 4 rookie position players debut OD in 2018? Hoskins Crawford kingery alfaro
Due to his option situation, Alfaro is a lock to be on the opening day roster next year, so let’s only look at the other 3 players. I think Hoskins is a lock, Tommy Joseph is not good and I don’t see him turning it around enough for the Phillies to keep him over Hoskins. I also don’t see a better option out on the market. Then we have Freddy Galvis. The Phillies love Galvis, the writers love Galvis, and Galvis has been fine. He is currently having the best year of his career and has been on fire for a little bit now. He is also a free agent after the 2018 season, and while there may be some thought to keeping him and delaying Crawford for a bit, I don’t think Freddy’s value is going up, and he isn’t going to get a qualifying offer or a cheap contract. Cesar Hernandez is the tough one, because he is actually good at baseball. Hernandez is essentially repeating his 2016 season, where he put up over 3 wins of value over a full season. Unlike Freddy, he isn’t a free agent until after the 2020 season, so you don’t need to commit to him for him to be your long term answer. This also means he has a lot of trade value, but I don’t know how many teams need a second baseman. I would put it at 100% that Alfaro and Hoskins are up, 75% that Crawford is up, and 50% that Kingery is up. What is that, a 37.5% chance they have 4 rookies?
@loudfartnoise: where is the best place to sit at CBP, for normal people (so no Diamond Club, first row behind dugout, etc)
I am going to be honest, almost every ticket I buy for a Phillies game is from StubHub or a site like that, and it is whatever the cheapest ticket available is. Occasionally, I will splurge if a slight upgrade will get a better seat. I have also never sat in the outfield, so I can’t speak to the experience there. For me, the best thing about Citizens Bank Park is that there really is no bad seat in the stadium. Some are better than others, but you aren’t going to ever have a bad view. My favorite year of Phillies baseball was 2012, because tickets were $1-$2 online and my girlfriend and I went to almost every game (I think we kept ending up with the same person’s tickets in 415). If you do find your tickets are bad, I advise just wandering the stadium and maybe camping in Ashburn Alley for a bit.