Phillies Draft Day 2 Recap

After taking Virginia’s Adam Haseley and Caly Poly’s Spencer Howard in the first two rounds, the Phillies faced 8 rounds of picking players. Yesterday was a lazy jaunt, today was a slow descent into madness. By the 7th round Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis were glued to their phones hoping scouts would bail them out with reports on players that they had never heard of. It only devolved from there as teams took college seniors to save money to spend later. In the end the Phillies walked away with a mixed group of players and the greatest mystery of the draft so far.

So who did they take?

3rd Round – Connor Seabold – RHP – Cal State Fullerton

Seabold comes out of the same college as current IronPigs starter Thomas Eshelman, and draws a lot of similar reviews. Seabold has slightly more velocity than Eshelman, but his command might be a step his fellow Titan. Unless he makes a sudden unexpected improvement, Seabold should be a quick moving back end starter, and he could reach the majors as soon as 2019 if the Phillies want to push him.

4th Round – Jake Scheiner – 3B – Houston

Scheiner was one of the best hitters in college baseball this year, hitting .346/.432/.667 in his first year at Houston (he spent two years in junior college). He has good power potential, but there are questions about where he plays defensively (he played shortstop and third base, with some thinking he will end up at second base).

5th Round – Ethan Lindow – LHP – Locust Grove HS

On some level it is hard to separate the mid round projectable high school arms, in most cases the scouting reports read the same. Lindow can get up to 92 with his fastball, but he faded down the stretch and likely saw his stock drop. He shows feel for a 3 pitch mix, with his breaking ball ahead of his changeup. He is going to be a long term project.

6th Round – Dalton Guthrie – SS – Florida

There aren’t many college shortstops that project to stick at the position all the way to the majors. If his arm strength comes fully back from injury, Guthrie projects to be a pretty good defender at short. He is a good hitter, but his lack of power limits his ultimate upside at the plate, despite a good feel for hitting and approach. The likely outcome for Guthrie is a good glove utility infielder, but if he bounces back from a down year he could be a low end starter.

7th Round – Nick Maton – SS – Lincoln Land JC

Maton is interesting, despite the lack of information. He mashed this year (albeit in a low level league), and he is a projectable infielder who should stay at short or third.

8th Round – Jhordany Mezquita – LHP

Let’s get weird. The Phillies already signed Mezquita, well not quite, the Phillies had agreed to sign Mezquita. Back then that was the international side of the amateur operations looking to sign him out of the Dominican Republic. However, MLB rules that he had to go through the draft, and so the Phillies took him in the 8th round. Mezquita is a 6’1″ lefty who is 91-94 (according to TV) feed with some debate as to whether his breaking ball or changeup is the better pitch.

9th Round – Zack Zoellner – 3B – New Mexico
10th Round – Connor Brogdon – RHP – Lewis-Clark State

The Phillies finished off with two college seniors. Zoeller has power and walked more than he struck out. Brogdon is a large righty (6’6″) who dominated the NAIA hitters this year.

None of the picks jump out today as super exciting or high upside. However, the Phillies took a fast moving starting pitcher to kick off the day and added some upside in the middle in Lindow, Guthrie, Maton, and Mezquita. We also don’t know what each player will cost the Phillies. That will greatly influence what they are able to do on Day 3 of the draft. Like the past two seasons, the Phillies under Johnny Almaraz did not stick to conventional draft boards. This leaves us having to trust the Phillies scouting department. That may not sit right with many people, but right now we really don’t have much more to go on.

One thing to watch as we move into Day 3 is that the Phillies have taken a couple of players through the first 10 rounds that would appeal to analytics. That is especially prominent with college performers in Adam Haseley, Spencer Howard, Connor Seabold, Jake Scheiner, and Zack Zoellner. It is also relatively low risk with many players having a foundation in approach and hit tool at the plate or command and control on the mound.

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  1. Kurdt Kobeyn

    June 13, 2017 11:37 PM

    the best value pick from the 1st 10 round might be the prospect that Sal A. (and not Johnny A). discovered — in Jhordany Mezquita. Unlike Johnny A. who follows his script of prioritizing players (hitters and pitchers) that can control the strike zone and deemed “safe” — Sal A., continues to discover prospects that display premium tools. Other than Gowdy, I’m not thrilled with the group of arms that Johnny A. compiled. On the international front, unheralded prospects (position and pitching) keep coming up every year in the lower minors.

    • Romus

      June 14, 2017 10:50 AM

      I think you are correct.
      Mezquita’s slot is $166K at 8 rounder, unless he signs over slotted…..and cannot help but wonder what he may have recd on July2nd as an international signee. Last year Morales went for over $700K, I would think Mezquita would be at least half that amount, if he is as highly rated as they say he is. Left hand pitchers are valued acquisitions.

    • Todd B

      June 14, 2017 07:21 PM

      So what’s happened to Gowdy? He was a big deal last year, but I can’t find anything about what he’s doing this year. Did he get injured? Go back to school?

      • Dave H

        June 14, 2017 08:53 PM

        Will probably be playing at Williamsport this year which is short season A ball with a bunch of players the Phillies picked today. I believe the first game is next week so we should start getting reports on him then.

      • Eddie

        June 15, 2017 11:28 AM

        Short season ball. Pretty standard for a HS pitcher.

  2. Mike Fassano

    June 15, 2017 12:38 AM

    The game has changed since I was a young man. This team is similar to the 1961 team that lost 23 in a row. That team had some pretty good players on it, just as this team does. You don’t think much about it when the losing streak begins, but as it grows, the streak takes on a life of it’s own. Even veteran players begin to try too hard. Imagine a team with Roberts, Short, and Mahaffey in the rotation losing 23 in a row.
    I read that Matt Klentak has said that there will be no immediate changes to the roster. This is both good and bad. I’m glad that he won’t buckle to those morons on talk radio, who insisted last month that we bring up Hoskins, and are screaming this month to bring up Kingery and Williams. Kingery will probably get his promotion to AAA soon, but I need to see more than a two or three week hot streak to promote Williams.
    The part where I’ll take Klentak to task is his “Do nothing” approach. The only two players on the team that will bring back anything in return are Neshak and Kendrick. If each of them are paired with a prospect, they could bring in a really good prospect. Nava is playing well, but the only thing he’ll bring us is a suspect. Same thing for Ty Kelly, Adam Morgan, and Luis Garcia. Cut these guys loose, and while were at it eat Saunders contract and send him on his way.
    Altherr could play right field every day, and the Phillies could platoon Stassi .292 and Perkins .307 in left. Saunders was brought in to be a bridge player, so why not let these guys be the bridge. Are Perkins, age 26, and Stassi, age 27 part of the future? Of course not, but they’re still relatively young and could be valuable back ups for a couple of years. There are several veteran relief pitchers at Lehigh that are doing well; certainly better than Morgan and Garcia.
    Klentak needs to throw the fans a bone. Let them know that your trying to improve the club now, while waiting for the prospects to develop.

    • Steve

      June 15, 2017 02:00 AM

      Hoskins has probably played well to deserve the talk of a possible promotion. Unfortunately for him, Joseph got hot, but i dont think a full season at AAA would be the worst thing for him.
      Williams should be called up after the all star break if he continues this level of success in AAA.
      Id like to see Kingry finish up the year in AAA. I also dont think the Phillies are in a rush to call him up to the majors and crunch their 40 man even more.

  3. TommyDigital

    June 15, 2017 08:07 AM

    Does anyone know when the “clock” stuff starts or stops with the prospects…like who can we expect to see in sept this year…and who will have to wait until next year. I’m over being mad at this team and don’t want them to ruin the future by over reacting to losing in a non-competitive year. Williams, Hoskins, Cousins, Kingery, Alfaro, Thompson, Crawford…etc.

    • Romus

      June 15, 2017 08:33 AM

      IMO, if Klentak does decide to make moves next month…..Kendrick and maybe Tommy Joseph, since three teams now could use a first baseman with some pop….Rangers, Mariners and Yankees…and if he can move those two….then I can see Hoskins getting the call-up and also Williams to go to LF, both coming up before EOM July.
      At this point…..I would be happy if he can get either low A prospects or added international allocation money to their current base, for each of them.
      Should he take a lessons learn from Hellickson’s situation from last year?
      Holding out for better returns on players not considered impact players may prove unfruitful.

      • Mike Fassano

        June 15, 2017 09:12 AM

        Romus – I generally agree with what you write, but I think you are dead wrong about bringing up Williams. I’ll qualify that by saying that I’d bring him up as soon as the Pigs season is over, and have him play every day in Sept. He was sent to AAA with the mandate to improve his K/BB ratio, and he has failed miserably (72 K’s – 8 BB’s). Like I said, I’d bring him up in Sept, but would promote Perkins if we need an outfielder for July and August.

      • Kurdt Kobeyn

        June 15, 2017 10:37 AM

        it make sense to promote Williams if starting LF (and join Doobie and Altherr) is available and don’t wait until September. Williams will add balance in the RH heavy batting order. Quinn is the only prospect that I will promote ahead of Williams.

        Perkins can be promoted too (if there’s a roster spot) but it will not hurt much to make Perkins as the 4th OF and back up 1B since that’s this ceiling anyway.

      • Eddie

        June 15, 2017 11:45 AM

        “He was sent to AAA with the mandate to improve his K/BB ratio,…”

        I don’t think that’s actually true. His mandate was to be a more selective hitter, which may or may not translate to K/BB. Realistically, probably he’s too naturally aggressive to ever be a high-OBP guy; you just need him to be patient enough to stop swinging at the most unhittable pitches. Whether or not he’s done that is something we don’t have data on.

        But in the meantime, he’s slugging .516, so it’s gonna be a hard sell to convince him that his approach isn’t working. If you promote him and he hits .175 with 45% Ks over 100 ABs, that be an effective teaching tool.

      • Steve

        June 15, 2017 01:06 PM

        Kendrick for a low A prospect, sure. Joseph im not sure about. I dont think hes boynd for the HOF but hes still youngish, cost controlled, and doing an above average job at 1b and the plate. You dont trade players like that for lottery tickets in the middle of rebuild.

      • Romus

        June 15, 2017 03:41 PM

        steve……you get what you can for Tommy Joseph. he is not going to bring back any premier prospect……you will probably get a team’s 10-15 prospect guy. He is a power bat but can be a defensive liability on a play-off team. it is pretty apparent he will never be a big BA/OBP guy….has not been in the minors and will not be in the majors. Hoskins on the other hand can give you that and the power bat and is a notch younger.
        I see Hoskins as the future core of this team as their first baseman.

      • Steve

        June 15, 2017 08:17 PM

        Roms, i agree with you about Hoskins. In the ideal scenario he continues to improve, he becomes the future 1b and Kingry and JPC are not far behind rounding out the next core and allowing the FO to spend for FA SP. You know as well as me how few prospects reach their ceiling, or even just become league average starters.

        I will say i have watched very few games in their entirety this season but i dont see Joseph as a liability in the field. I cerntainly think hes already better than Howard was.

        I agree hes not a .300 hitter, but the small sample power number he has demonstrated shouldnt be overlooked.

        As you said, i doubt he ever bring back a big return in a trade, but I can see him as a very serviceable 1b hitting 5th or 6th if Hoskins doesn’t develop as we are all hoping.

    • Mike Fassano

      June 15, 2017 09:02 AM

      I expect Kingery to be promoted to AAA within a week. Chances are that the Ironpigs will be in the minor league Championship series, but as soon as that’s over I’d bring up Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford, Alfaro, Williams, and Perkins and put them all in the line up every day. I’d bring up Eshelman (if he isn’t already up) and give the ball to Hoby Milner and Jesen Therrien in the bullpen.

      • Kurdt Kobeyn

        June 15, 2017 10:42 AM

        I like the Phils to add JDT in the 40-man by Nov so promoting him at any point this season makes sense. Austin Davis is the LH arm that I can see the Phils adding to the 40-man, like JDT, the Phils can promote him or just and wait until Nov until all the stiffs are removed in the 40-man. Milner is 50-50, as I’m not sure if he can sure he can survive the roster purge in Nov. the Phils can give him a cup of tea and give him the opportunity to prove he can play in the big league.

      • Steve

        June 15, 2017 01:45 PM

        Glad your arent Klentak. Williams and Perkins come up and play every day, so you are sitting one of either Herrera or Altherr each day? Thats not helpful.

        Hoskins may be ready, but unless Joseph regresses it doent make sense to sit him every day. A platoon in September may make sense.

        JPC has done nothing to warrant a promotion, but i understand you wanting him to progress. Unfortunately no amount of desire by us will make him hit better. He needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching.

        Kingry may be ready, but i wouldnt expect a call-up. If Kingry truly is the future 2b, then Hernandez is a fairly valuable trade piece. Hes going to miss about 6 weeks and should spend the rest of the season as the regular 2b. Ideally he can bounce back from injury, finish the year stong, and establish some trade value for the offseason or early next year. That being said, if i got a decent offer for him this year, id take it in a second and give Kingry a shot.

        I think we see both JPC and Kingry finish 2017 and start 2018 playing together in Lehigh.

    • Steve

      June 15, 2017 08:30 PM

      Not sure which clock you mean.
      I believe a player is under team control for 5 years after they reach MLB (first 3 years under contract next 2 through arbitration)

      A player can become arbitration eligible as a “super two” if they are in the top 20% of players with between 2 and years of service. (Top 20% refers to service time, not performance). Super 2’s will go through arbitration 3 times.

      Since its percentage based there is no concrete date because you never know how many players will get called up after your team’s prospect that year. A quick google will show you the average service time cutoff for super 2’s for the last few years.

      The other clock has to do with how many years you can have a player in the minors before you have to add him to the 40 man or expose him to the rule 5 draft. I dont know much about that.

      The phillies will have to handle both of these “clocks” well in the upcoming years with such a deep farm system and a number of prospects who appear to be near MLB ready.

      • TommyDigital

        June 16, 2017 09:00 AM

        The clock i’m referring to is the one that will run out and maybe make a game watchable for the first time in a few years. Go BlueRocks!

  4. Mike Fassano

    June 15, 2017 03:02 PM

    Steve, I too am glad that I’m not Klentak. The purpose of this season is to find out what we have moving forward. By Sept. 1st we’ll know what we have in Herrera, Altherr, Joseph, Hernandez etc. Play the kids and give them a good taste of the big leagues. I don’t care if we win games in September.

    • Steve

      June 15, 2017 07:16 PM

      Well i already stated why i think Heenandez should play every day after he recovers ftom injury. Sorry but the idea of benching Altherr or Herrera just to see what we have in Cam Perkins does seem logical to me. Agree to disagree.

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