Crash Bag, Vol. 16 – What Makes a Good Draft?

The Phillies have played 12 of 15 games against the Mets and Nationals and have come out of those games with a 5-7 record (and a positive run differential). Not bad for losing your starting left fielder, having a starting pitcher arm explode, and watching Jeanmar Gomez do exactly what we expected him to. This week deals with none of that. Instead, I go down a draft wormhole, and a questioner gets some moving advice.

Next week, Brad (@bxe1234) will be doing the Crash Bag while I am Philly.

@ethan_witte: What makes a draft class a success? Having multiple players secure multiple WAR over a career, or just one or two guys that are really good?
@JesusZoidberg: If you get a prospect from a draft, and then trade him for a legit player, but the prospect fails, is that a bad pick(draft)?

I have two different definitions for the minimum for a successful draft class. The first is that it gets you an above average regular either from the players in it or in trade. The second is that it gets you an average regular and some ancillary pieces. If you get a first division regular or borderline all-star and nothing else, that is a success. If all you get is a bunch of bench players or middle relievers, that is not a successful draft, but it is also not a complete waste. With that in mind, I went back 10 years to go through the 2007 to 2014 drafts, since the 2015 and 2016 drafts have barely had time to play and grow. For each class I have divided it into players who reached the majors, notable prospects, players still in the minors, and players traded. Continue reading…