Longenhagen checks in from Fall League

This will be my penultimate post here on Crashburn. It’s a run down of the Phillies Fall League players, all of whom I’ve now seen enough to feel comfortable evaluating formally. Let’s get to it.

Roman Quinn
Quinn looks pretty good out here. He’s putting up 70 grade run times and, while it’s not the 80 grade octane we saw before his Achilles injury, he’s still plenty fast enough to make an impact with his legs. Quinn has also transitioned back to the outfield (he played CF in high school) and is already average there. He’ll likely be plus in due time. The arm is average, maybe a half grade below if he doesn’t set his feet properly, and won’t be a weapon but isn’t a horrendous blight, either.

Now, on to the bat. Quinn’s bat path is naturally geared for ground balls. There’s not much of a load to it, from either side of the plate, and Quinn needs to collapse his back side to produce any loft and power in his swing, which he’s been doing more of this fall. He sacrifices bat control for bat speed and hand strength. He’d be a 35 hitter in the bigs right now and I have a future 40 on the bat with a chance to get to 45 if he can BABIP his way there because of his legs. It’s 35 grade power and I’m holding firm on that for his peak as well.
This is a pretty good player, one I think will become a fringe-average regular in centerfield with a chance to be solid average if he hits more than I anticipate. A useful piece.

 

Logan Moore

Moore has struggled mightily with his receiving out here, far too much for me to consider him a viable option behind the plate. There’s not enough bat for anywhere else. He’s an org guy for me.

Adam Morgan
I saw Morgan’s first start of the Fall and things did not go well. He looks a good bit stiffer than he did before his shoulder issues. The fastball was 87-90, down from the 91-94 we saw when Morgan rose to the top of my Phillies prospect rankings a few years ago. His secondary pitches still wink at you from across the bar now and then but not as consistently as before. His changeup will sit 77-79mph with some run and fade. I put a 45 on it, though it flashed 55. Both his slider and curveball were 45 pitches for me and his command was below average. I won’t dare declare Morgan’s future to be as bleak as I just made it sound because he is just coming off f an injury and deserves time to shake off rust. The early returns, however, are not promising. It’s a bit heartbreaking, really. Adam is, by all accounts, a wonderful young man. If I catch him again and things look different, I’ll let you know.

Nefi Ogando
I’ve written about Ogando here before but here’s where things are now. He throws really hard, 96-98mph and he’s been doing it long enough now that I think it’s safe to say that velo spike he saw after coming over from Boston in the John McDonald trade is going to stick. His slider is usually pretty bad, in the 87-91mph range. It spins but does not move, a grade 30 pitch. However, Ogando has begun working with Ray Burris, who grabbed a hold of Ken Giles and his solid but unspectacular breaking ball at Triple-A last year and did some serious work. Ogando has flashed a better slider recently and it’s possible Burris has made some headway there. You can always dream on arm strength like this turning into something. It’s not unreasonable to think Ogando’s slider will come along enough for him to be a middle relief piece. He’s shown a below average changeup out here as well and has the arm action to think that could also tick pu a half grade or so with reps. Keep monitoring him.

Colton Murray
Murray’s got a relief-only delivery. Very violent, very noisy. That brings about reliever’s command. The stuff is decent, fastball 92-94mph and an above average breaking ball. He could be a middle relief piece.

Ethan Stewart
Stewart looks really good. His fastball coasts in at an unspectacular 90-93mph which is basically crawling when compared to the way other bullpen arms are bringing it lately. But the slider is a diving 84-87mph phantom that has flashed 65 and is, at worst, a grade 55 offering. Stewart’s use of the pitch is especially impressive. He’s shown a good idea of how to use that slider to get RHHs out and immunize himself from potential platoon issues we often see with left-handed relievers. He won’t get a lot of buzz because he doesn’t make the radar guns explode but he’s got a chance to be a setup man with that slide piece working the way it is.

Ryan O’Sullivan
Guys like Sullivan aren’t really prospects but he’s been jerked back and forth between the bullpen and rotation in the minors so much that he provides a valuable skill: Adaptability. While he grades out as an org guy, O’Sullivan might get a chance to wear a Major League uniform in the next season or two because he can pretty much take the mound whenever you need him to. In an organization that has little pitching depth and a bunch of old guys in the Majors, reaching down to Reading or Allentown for a rubber arm isn’t unthinkable.

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8 comments

  1. Bob

    October 30, 2014 06:10 PM

    Will Quinn develop into a better player than Revere? I know you don’t like comps, but your assessment of Quinn seems like what we have with Revere except a better arm.

    • Dan K.

      October 30, 2014 07:42 PM

      And better power. And worse hitting. And better first jumps (in the field).

      Basically they’re only similar in speed.

    • EDGE

      October 30, 2014 09:16 PM

      Revere in 403 minor league ABs have 4 total HRs. Quinn in 221 ABs already has 13 HRs. Quinn has more pop and Revere is a better hitter.

      • Cormican

        November 01, 2014 09:22 PM

        Quinn so far looks to be a more patient hitter, so he COULD end up a better leadoff hitter in terms of OBP.

  2. SirAlden

    October 31, 2014 12:50 AM

    Could you please comment head to head with Quinn to Revere? WAR as well? Great article. Thanks. Pulling for Morgan as well.

  3. Eric Longenhagen

    October 31, 2014 12:17 PM

    Regarding the Revere vs Quinn thing:

    For me, in the aggregate, they’re about the same player: An average or slightly below player with maybe some peak years just above that due to random human variation or BABIP noise or whatever. Quinn projects as a better defender overall (and I’ll eat crow on Revere’s defense which I put a future 7 on when he was in the minors and looking great in RF for Minnesota) because he’s clearly more comfortable reading the ball off the bat from dead center than Revere is. The one thing that I’d caution you on right now is Quinn’s approach hasn’t been great out here. He’s not seeing many pitches. Things could play down for him offensively because of that. With Revere, we know what they have. Quinn has more risk associated with him.

    • tom b

      October 31, 2014 04:34 PM

      stewarts stuff might look really good but 8 bb in 5 ip doesn’t say much for his command. are you confident in his ability to improve it? his last 2 years have been rather brutal. he makes diekman look like a control artist

      • Eric Longenhagen

        October 31, 2014 04:57 PM

        No, he’s pretty much a lottery ticket. But if I looked up in 4 years and he was someone’s 7th or 8th inning guy I wouldn’t be surprised.

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