Looking Ahead to Domonic Brown’s Second Half
Back on June 13, I put up a quick poll to get a feel for what fans expected of Domonic Brown in terms of weighted on-base average (wOBA) going forward. I had a bit of an ulterior motive because I expected that the responses would skew negative (though less negative than that of the general Phillies fan population).
After closing the poll results, here’s how they look (out of 306 responses):
- .249 wOBA or below: 9%
- .250 to .274: 27%
- .275 to .299: 31%
- .300 to .324: 23%
- .325 to .349: 7%
- .350 or above: 3%
For those of you who prefer to look at a chart:
On June 12, Mitchell Lichtman posted his own research which found that rest-of-season projections are more accurate predicting a player’s future performance than a player’s season-to-date performance.
Two out of every three poll respondents expected Brown to finish with a sub-.300 wOBA in the second split (June 13 onward).
Since June 13, Brown has posted a .302 wOBA in 101 plate appearances, which is a bit of an improvement. ZiPS rest-of-season projection pegs him at .329 (July 18 onward). Steamer pegs him at .325. If the projections are to be believed, Brown will continue to improve over the next two and a half months.
I don’t have any substantive analysis at this point, but I did want to put something up and explain what that was all about. It’s just a little experiment I find interesting — pitting cold, hard data against the eye test, for lack of a better blanket term.