Looking Ahead to Domonic Brown’s Second Half

Back on June 13, I put up a quick poll to get a feel for what fans expected of Domonic Brown in terms of weighted on-base average (wOBA) going forward. I had a bit of an ulterior motive because I expected that the responses would skew negative (though less negative than that of the general Phillies fan population).

After closing the poll results, here’s how they look (out of 306 responses):

  • .249 wOBA or below: 9%
  • .250 to .274: 27%
  • .275 to .299: 31%
  • .300 to .324: 23%
  • .325 to .349: 7%
  • .350 or above: 3%

For those of you who prefer to look at a chart:

On June 12, Mitchell Lichtman posted his own research which found that rest-of-season projections are more accurate predicting a player’s future performance than a player’s season-to-date performance.

Two out of every three poll respondents expected Brown to finish with a sub-.300 wOBA in the second split (June 13 onward).

Since June 13, Brown has posted a .302 wOBA in 101 plate appearances, which is a bit of an improvement. ZiPS rest-of-season projection pegs him at .329 (July 18 onward). Steamer pegs him at .325. If the projections are to be believed, Brown will continue to improve over the next two and a half months.

I don’t have any substantive analysis at this point, but I did want to put something up and explain what that was all about. It’s just a little experiment I find interesting — pitting cold, hard data against the eye test, for lack of a better blanket term.

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  1. Carmine

    July 15, 2014 10:26 AM

    While we’re on the subject of Dom Brown, can the Phillies please put this guy in right field and leave him there? His fielding talents, such as they are, seem better suited to right, so let’s find out. It’s not like we’re going to lose the second wild card spot due to Dom’s fielding, although his abysmal performance so far is a major reason we are 11 games under .500. This assumes Marlon Byrd is gone by July 31.

    • tom b

      July 15, 2014 11:15 AM

      i’ve thought the same thing. if you can find a centerfielder,i think revere would be better served in left. not that it is really gonna matter for a few years.

      • Chris S.

        July 15, 2014 11:21 AM

        I would agree with this. When Revere played LF in Minnesota he was elite defensively, maybe we can put Brown in Right, Revere in Left, and Sizemore in Center. Sizemore has looked fairly decent in his first couple of games. Maybe the All-Star CF is still in there.

    • Bob

      July 15, 2014 01:29 PM

      Dom Brown is a terrible defender and he’s incapable of playing RF at even replacement level. The Phillies have tried sacrificing offense for defense in past years and it doesn’t work. We had a 40 year old Jim Thome trying to play 1B. We had Ty Wigginton playing 3B. There was Delmon Young in RF. Michael Young at 3B. It was difficult to watch these games. You can only have so many defensive liabilities around the diamond.

      With Revere struggling to be an average CF, having Brown in the more defensively valuable RF is a recipe for disaster. If you think Cole Hamels gets upset at the defensive ineptitude of our OF now, you’re going to see some fireworks should Brown be slotted in RF with Revere in CF.

      • tom b

        July 15, 2014 03:11 PM

        thome was better at 40 yrs old than howard period. i agree you can do better than brown, but not with anything in their system. as far as cole goes maybe his of’s get tired craning their necks around to watch another ball flying out of the park. funny how players get upset at others mistakes and not their own. you make him sound like papelbon. i hope that’s not the case

  2. Kevin

    July 15, 2014 12:41 PM

    My biggest concern with Brown is his lack of power numbers. How does a guy put up those type of numbers last may/june and then this year barely be able to drive the ball.

    I thought Brown would be a .450 slugging type guy.

    the 2014 .329 slugging is not what I expected

  3. Adam Dembowitz

    July 15, 2014 07:53 PM

    I think Sizemore is basically done at this point, but assuming a trade of Byrd, an outfield of Revere in LF, Sizemore/JMJ in CF, and Brown in RF seems logical. Don’t forget Ruf, whenever he comes back, is best suited – for lack of a better term – in left field if he’s not at first.

    • Bob

      July 16, 2014 12:24 AM

      Putting Ruf in LF with Revere in CF and Brown in RF is probably the worst defensive OF in baseball by a wide margin. That’s not a professional OF. RAJ should be ashamed.

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