If the Phillies Hadn’t Played the Marlins…

The Phillies have had some success against the Miami Marlins in an otherwise uninspired year. They’ve gone 8-4 against the Fish, 21-24 against all other contenders entering Wednesday.

Many players have also enjoyed their best (or worst) personal success against the Marlins in 2013, who are quite easily regarded as one of the more hapless teams running these days, for a variety of reasons.

If the Marlins didn’t exist, just what would the season lines of some members of the lineup look like? I wonder these things to myself, and will now indulge this voice in my head.

1B Ryan Howard

  • Vs. Marlins: .421/.500/.789, 2 HR, 6 BB, 7 K in 44 PA
  • Vs. All Others: .213/.246/.352, 5 HR, 8 BB, 57 K in 171 PA

2B Chase Utley

  • Vs. Marlins: .100/.152/.267, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K in 33 PA
  • Vs. All Others: .313/.382/.523, 6 HR, 15 BB, 19 K in 144 PA

3B Michael Young

  • Vs. Marlins: .244/.244/.293, 0 HR, 0 BB, 4 K in 41 PA
  • Vs. All Others: .261/.368/.366, 2 HR, 24 BB, 27 K in 166 PA

SS Jimmy Rollins

  • Vs. Marlins: .200/.319/.225, 0 HR, 7 BB, 5 K in 47 PA
  • Vs. All Others: .274/.332/.436, 4 HR, 16 BB, 32 K in 199 PA

OF Domonic Brown

  • Vs. Marlins: .292/.306/.625, 4 HR, 1 BB, 10 K in 49 PA
  • Vs. All Others: .282/.326/.564, 13 HR, 10 BB, 32 K in 175 PA

OF Ben Revere

  • Vs. Marlins: .286/.333/.310, 0 HR, 3 BB, 8 K in 46 PA
  • Vs. All Others: .231/.261/.266, 0 HR, 7 BB, 17 K in 153 PA

The Phillies have had a big chunk of their games to date against the Marlins. For some (Howard, Revere sort of), that’s been good news. For others (Utley when he returns, Young and Rollins), the Fish have been a tough nut to crack. Fun with small samples.

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84 comments

  1. TomG

    June 06, 2013 08:07 AM

    Haha. “Merlins”. My bad. Obviously I know the Miami team’s name is the Merlots, though i’m not going to w(h)ine about my mistake.

  2. Jonny5

    June 06, 2013 10:05 AM

    Tom G.

    Seriously though…. I totally agree.

  3. t

    June 06, 2013 10:05 AM

    This: “Getting back to your standard (of the prospects not YET helping their new teams), do you consider the Pence and Victorino trades as failures since Joseph, Rosin and Martin have YET to help the Phillies?”

    The only thing that matters is the value the prospects had *at the time of the trade*. If the prospects fail to develop that just means either the acquiring team didn’t handle them right or they weren’t that good in the first place.

    All I’m sure about with the Phillies’ farm system is that it is a #5 starter FACTORY.

  4. Pencilfish

    June 06, 2013 10:54 AM

    hk,

    Here are the most notable RAJ trades:

    1) Lee for Carrasco, Knapp, Donald and Marson in July 2009

    2) Halladay for d’Arnaud, Drabek and Taylor in December 2009

    3) Aumont, Gilles and Ramirez for Lee in December 2009

    4) Oswalt for Happ, Villar and Gose in July 2010

    5) Pence for Singleton, Cosart, Zeid and Santana in July 2011

    6) Schierholtz, Joseph, Rosin for Pence in July 2012

    7) Martin, Lindblom for Victorino in July 2012

    8) Revere for Worley and May in December 2012

    In the 3 (or more) years since trades 1-4, the players obtained by trading an All-Star have not made significant contributions to their new teams. That includes Aumont (who’s struggling in AAA) and Gose.

    In the 2 years since trade 5, none of the above traded players have reached the majors YET. I concede your point that’s still too early to judge their impact, but clearly they are not on the fast-track to the majors. It is too early to consider the impact of trades 6-8, and you know I disliked trade 6.

    This all goes back to my statements that your criticism of RAJ trades is misplaced. In trades 1, 2, 4 and 5, he got All-Stars for players who could not (and have not) contributed at the ML level. RAJ took the Phillies into the post-season 2009-2011 with these trades. Put it another way, if RAJ kept those farm hands, they wouldn’t help keep the Phillies in contention from 2009-2011.

    We may come to regret trading d’Arnaud, Singleton, May, etc, but at this point, the Phillies won out in trades 1, 2, 4, and 5. If you think 3 years is too soon to evaluate a trade, what’s a reasonable time period for you? 5 years?

  5. Sean

    June 06, 2013 10:56 AM

    Just making a point that none of the prospects have hurt us yet with Major League experience yet. When we traded for Roy Oswalt (Which we had to do because, for some reason, RAJ felt like it was a good idea to trade Lee to Seattle for a turd sandwich) we traded Anthony Gose. I am just saying, I would much rather have Gose in Centerfield right now then Ben Revere, and it all stems from the Lee deal

  6. hk

    June 06, 2013 11:24 AM

    Pencilfish,

    I don’t know how long it takes to do a results-based analysis of each deal. The ages of the prospects in each are different, so we can’t expect too much production yet from a players who were traded 2 years ago at the age of 19.

    * #1 was a great trade. I said it then and I’ll say it now. It was far and away the best move of RAJ’s tenure.

    * #2 and #3 basically cancel each other out as the Phils gave up the better prospects, including one who was traded for the reigning Cy Young award winner last off-season, in swapping Lee for Halladay.

    * In #4, the Phils received 4.4 WAR at a large cost from Oswalt. JA Happ has produced 3.2 WAR since the trade and Gose has accumulated 0.7 WAR and has yet to reach his 23rd birthday.

    * The Pence trade had little if anything to do with keeping the Phillies in contention in 2011. They had a 6 game lead at the end of July and were probably ~95% likely to make the playoffs at that time.

  7. JohnMatrix

    June 06, 2013 11:28 AM

    Do you guys ever post anything positive over here? bitches.

  8. Pencilfish

    June 06, 2013 11:28 AM

    Sean,

    A good point, but Gose is a .233/.313/.328 player through 215 PA’s at Toronto so far. I don’t know how good he is defensively. He’s only 22, so he will probably improve, but right now, he’s not a significant upgrade over Revere.

  9. Chris S.

    June 06, 2013 11:32 AM

    “All I’m sure about with the Phillies’ farm system is that it is a #5 starter FACTORY.”

    Maybe it is because the Phillies aren’t that good at developing pitching? How many successful pitching products do the Phillies have that ended up pitching in the MLB with the Phillies. Answer not many.

  10. Pencilfish

    June 06, 2013 11:54 AM

    hk,

    “The Pence trade had little if anything to do with keeping the Phillies in contention in 2011. They had a 6 game lead at the end of July and were probably ~95% likely to make the playoffs at that time”

    True, but trading Pence away was a mistake. What if we had him in RF and Brown in LF today? Would the Phillies be better than .500 after 60 games?

    Often, teams that trade away an All-Star at or near his prime years will lose out. The Lee trade to Seattle is another example. Scott Rolen being shipped out of Philly is another. That’s the reason I don’t think trading Lee is a good idea, whether or not the team is in contention in late July.

  11. hk

    June 06, 2013 12:06 PM

    Pencilfish,

    If they had anyone other than Delmon Young in RF, they would be above .500. If they had Pence, they would be paying him ~$13.8M this year whereas if they had Nate Schierholtz, they would be above .500 and would be paying Nate ~10% of Pence’s salary (plus they would maintain control of Nate for a few years to come).

  12. Sean

    June 06, 2013 12:15 PM

    Pencilfish,

    My point is, if you keep Lee instead of trade him, you get Lee that year for 9 million, you can sign him to an extension, which possibly could have been even cheaper than the deal we gave him in FA, you keep a guy like Gose who will be at least an average centerfielder in the MLB, while keeping trade chips in Happ, Villar, Worley, and May for possibly a RF who cost less than Pence or whatever. The big thing about all the Amaro moves is they build off each other. One screw up leads to another then another and now, we have this team that is a .500 team with a huge payroll.

  13. hk

    June 06, 2013 01:46 PM

    One screw up leads to another then another and now, we have this team that is a .500 team with a huge payroll.

    The deal for Oswalt actually starts with RAJ giving the then 46 year old Jamie Moyer a two-year deal after the 2008 season. If Moyer and his $8M contract were not on the 2010 roster, they could have kept Lee and his $9M contract and if Lee was on the 2010 roster, there would have been no need to trade for Oswalt.

  14. Ted Kennedy

    June 06, 2013 03:24 PM

    Are you guys actually saying that RAJ made the decision to trade Lee? You seriously cannot be that obtuse. That was a directive from ownership. Monty has said as much.

  15. Ted Kennedy

    June 06, 2013 03:26 PM

    By hk | @hk9965 | on Jun 6, 2013

    Pencilfish,

    If they had anyone other than Delmon Young in RF, they would be above .500. If they had Pence, they would be paying him ~$13.8M this year whereas if they had Nate Schierholtz, they would be above .500 and would be paying Nate ~10% of Pence’s salary (plus they would maintain control of Nate for a few years to come).

    LOL – the fallacy of predetermined outcome. You have no, ZERO, ZILCH, NO way of knowing that Nate would be having the same season he is having right now if he was with the Phillies.

  16. Ted Kennedy

    June 06, 2013 03:33 PM

    “”By Chris S. on Jun 6, 2013

    “All I’m sure about with the Phillies’ farm system is that it is a #5 starter FACTORY.”

    Maybe it is because the Phillies aren’t that good at developing pitching? How many successful pitching products do the Phillies have that ended up pitching in the MLB with the Phillies. Answer not many.””

    What is the league average for developing pitchers? The Phillies seem to do an above average job developing pitchers.

    Starters – Wolf, Myers, Floyd, Kendrick, Hamels, Happ, Worley, Pettibone

    Relievers – Madson, Bastardo, DeFratus

    Little light on the relievers side, but developing starting pitching seems to be one thing the Phillies minor league system does well.

  17. hk

    June 06, 2013 03:58 PM

    Ted Kennedy,

    When do you think Monty told RAJ that he had to trade Cliff Lee, before or after RAJ acquired Halladay? If it was before the Halladay trade, which seems to make sense because the Lee trade was announced simultaneously, the fact that he had to trade Lee is irrelevant to the conversation in which we’re assessing RAJ trades. It was essentially one three-team, eight-player trade that was basically a wash. If anyone is being obtuse, it would be a person who says RAJ made a great trade for Halladay, but the Lee trade is on ownership.

  18. Chris S.

    June 06, 2013 04:08 PM

    @Ted Kennedy

    Those last 3 are grasping at straws, just because they made the big league club doesn’t mean they are above a #4/5 starter in fact you could make an argument that the last 3 names on that list are the epitome of a #4/5 starter. Also Floyd made the bigs with the Phillies, but didn’t begin to have success until he went to the White Sox. And Kendrick has been the replacement pitcher his whole life except for the last year. I want him to sustain some more success before I would label him as anything other than a #4/5 starter. So 4 of the 8 starters are really backing up exactly what I was saying before and Floyd didn’t have success with the Phillies. Worely was so bad this year he was demoted.

  19. Chris S.

    June 06, 2013 04:13 PM

    @Ted Kennedy
    Posted the previous one by accident before I could finish my reply.

    So by my count that is 3 in the last 10 years? That is an awful track record. The rays seem to be able to pull out quality pitchers from thin air, Alex Cobb was never a highly touted prospect, but boy is he having success this year in one of the toughest divisions to pitch against.

  20. Sean

    June 06, 2013 04:20 PM

    Ted Kennedy-

    Okay, so maybe it was a mandate by David Montgomery to trade….. PAYROLL!!!!! Not Cliff Lee. If, as HK said, they did not give Moyer a two year deal, they would have had the money to keep lee. Or, you trade a Blanton, who still had some value at the time, for a bag of balls just to not have him on the payroll. There are countless other moves he could have done. And, if payroll was as big of a deal as was said by Montgomery, how is gods name do they afford Oswalt, the stupid Howard extension, or Cliff Lee the next year. Why didn’t they have to trade Oswalt after signing Lee? It just makes absolutely no sense.

  21. Pencilfish

    June 06, 2013 04:23 PM

    hk,

    I know some people bemoan the loss of Nate Schierholtz. He wouldn’t be a free agent until after the 2014 season, while Pence becomes a free agent at the end of this season. There’s a large disparity in salary, but Schierholtz has produced 4.3 WAR over 7 seasons, while Pence has produced 21.5 WAR over the same period. This is comparing apples with oranges.

  22. Pencilfish

    June 06, 2013 04:28 PM

    Sean,

    RAJ approached Lee about an extension after the 2009 season. Lee told him he was going to test the FA market, which he eventually did. It’s an illusion to think the Phillies could have prevented him from testing the FA market. Lee was going to maximize his FA payday. There was an article in Sports Illustrated in late 2010 with all the details, which I kept to preserve this fascinating story.

  23. Sean

    June 06, 2013 04:53 PM

    Pencilfish,
    That’s a good point. It still does not explain him trading Lee for 0 top 100 prospects (the Phillies were the only team who thought Aumont was a starter), then having to get another pitcher after they realize they need one, and shelling out more money and the better prospect for the lower grade pitcher. Again, it’s Amaro not understanding how to properly utilize a team. He would have been better off getting the first round pick in 2011 for Lee then getting back the prospects he did… well, with his draft record, who knows.

  24. Chris S.

    June 06, 2013 04:55 PM

    As far as Qualls being better than Mike Adams, well Adams has an unfortunate HR/FB ratio of 31.3% and his career avg is 8.1%. He also is inducing 52.9% of Groundballs, which is the highest it has been in his career. I am thinking he is looking for some regression in his numbers.

  25. hk

    June 06, 2013 05:14 PM

    Or, Adams is old, coming off an injury plagued season and in decline.

  26. LTG

    June 06, 2013 06:50 PM

    hk,

    I doubt a pitcher could be true talent 26% K/BF and 31% HR/FB. I’ll grant Adams is enigmatic given the jump in K% and BB% so far, but stats probably aren’t accurate indicators of his true talent right now.

  27. Pencilfish

    June 06, 2013 09:11 PM

    Sean,

    Trading Lee to Seattle was a mistake. RAJ admitted to it by attempting to get him back at the trade deadline (the Rangers got him instead for Justin Smoak and 3 prospects) and then finally re-signing him as a FA. It was just a bad move. Instead of thinking like a baseball GM, his MBA from Stanford got the better of him.

  28. hk

    June 07, 2013 05:46 AM

    Pencilfish,

    You know that WAR is a counting stat, so your “Schierholtz has produced 4.3 WAR over 7 seasons, while Pence has produced 21.5 WAR over the same period” is misleading (and wrong). It’s actually 5.3 WAR in 1,554 PA’s for Nate and 21.3 WAR in 4,035 for Hunter. While Hunter still has produced more WAR / PA than Nate, I don’t think he would have produced enough to justify the extra ~$12.3M of salary. I also don’t think the GM was in position to pay $13.8M for a RF because of how he’s overpaid at so many other positions over the past few years.

  29. hk

    June 07, 2013 05:57 AM

    LTG,

    I also don’t think Adams will continue to surrender HR’s at such a disturbing rate. I thought at the time that they signed Adams that they overpaid ($12M/2 or $18M/3) for an aging reliever coming off of an injury and I found it ironic that he has been out-pitched (albeit in a small sample size) YTD by last year’s public enemy #1.

  30. Pencilfish

    June 07, 2013 10:14 AM

    hk,

    Yes, I realize that, but the large disparity in WAR and PA’s is indicative of Pence’s role as an everyday player and Schierholtz’s role as a platoon or bench player over the past 7 seasons. If you have in mind Schierholtz/Mayberry platoon, then I agree this is more cost-effective. If we need an everyday RF, Pence is the better choice (with Mayberry going to the bench). Schierholtz and Mayberry have a combined 0.7 WAR over 303 PA’s (Mayberry is actually 0 WAR, so the entire contribution comes from Schierholtz), while Pence has 2.1 WAR over 248 PA’s. Yes, we would pay much more per WAR, but so what?

    I’m not sure payroll is as big an issue as you think. The luxury threshold rises ~$10 million next year, and several expensive players (Ruiz, Halladay and Utley) *may* come off the books. As I said to you earlier, I think getting rid of Pence was a mistake. He would have helped balance Utley, Howard and now Brown’s LH power bats, as he’s doing in San Francisco now.

  31. LTG

    June 07, 2013 10:25 AM

    Well, yeah, hk, I know what you think of the Adams deal and I agree that the money could have been more wisely spent. But your response seemed like an attempt at explaining Adams results so far. That’s what I responded to.

  32. hk

    June 07, 2013 11:55 AM

    LTG,

    You are absolutely right that my response came off that way. That is why I later clarified my position.

  33. hk

    June 07, 2013 12:00 PM

    Pencilfish,

    When I referenced payroll in my comment, I was referencing this year’s payroll. If they had kept Pence and not signed Delmon, their payroll this year would be ~$12M higher (assuming all other things being equal). If they were intent upon keeping their 2013 payroll at ~$160M, a Schierholtz / Mayberry platoon > Delmon Young.

  34. caterina

    June 18, 2013 07:15 AM

    Ottimo articolo, ne faro’ un punto di riferimento, chissa’ che quanto letto non possa aiutare anche me.

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