Phillies Week in Review #4

Record: 4 wins, 3 losses

Standing: 12-14, 3rd place in NL East (4.0 GB)

Top 3 offensive plays (by Win Probability Added, WPA)

Bottom 3 offensive plays

  • April 24: Phillies trail 3-4, bottom 8th (runner on 1st, 1 out): Ben Revere grounds into 6-4-3 double play against Mark Melancon. (-.143 WPA)
  • April 24: Phillies lead 2-1, bottom 5th (runners on 1st and 3rd, 0 out): Michael Young reaches on fielder’s choice ground ball to third against Wandy Rodriguez. Chase Utley forced out at second. Jimmy Rollins tagged out at home. (-.140 WPA) [Video]
  • April 23: Phillies trail 0-1, bottom 4th (runners on 1st and 3rd, 0 out): Ben Revere reaches on fielder’s choice ground ball to third against Jeff Locke. John Mayberry tagged out at home. (-.123 WPA)

Top 3 pitching/defensive plays

  • April 22: Phillies lead 3-2, top 7th (runner on 1st, 0 out): Russell Martin grounds into 6-4-3 double play against Antonio Bastardo. (-.144 WPA)
  • April 24: Phillies trail 3-4, top 8th (bases loaded, 0 out): Neil Walker grounds into 3-2-3 double play against Jeremy Horst. (-.131 WPA) [Video]
  • April 22: Phillies lead 3-2, top 9th (runner on 2nd, 1 out): Neil Walker flies out to left against Jonathan Papelbon. (-.111 WPA)

Bottom 3 pitching/defensive plays

Best Hitter: Michael Young (.409/.500/.409)

Best Starter: Kyle Kendrick (1 GS, 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB)

Best Reliever: Raul Valdes (3 G, 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 0 BB)

Leave a Reply

*

15 comments

  1. JRFarmer

    April 29, 2013 07:25 AM

    Bill,

    Any chance we can get a Kyle Kendrick analysis article? Obviously, his results are exceptional, but how do his advanced stats look (retro-dictors, etc)? Is it sustainable?

    JF

  2. Jonny5

    April 29, 2013 07:59 AM

    The pitchers…. I must be hallucinating. Did somebody put LSD in my coffee?? Must have. Excuse me while I go enjoy the rest of my trip. I think…. This could be the start to a bad one actually. I’m confused. Is this Bizarro world?

  3. Aaron H

    April 29, 2013 08:07 AM

    Just going into the numbers quickly (comparing the 2013 small sample size “lights out” Kendrick to a solid, unspectacular 2012 Kendrick):

    First, looking at BABIP: sits at .263 vs. .283 last year vs. .298 for the career, probably the most unsustainable thing about his current performance.
    However, you dig a little deeper, and the numbers look pretty solid.

    -K/9 rate is a little lower (6.4 from 6.6)
    -BB/9 dropped a lot, currently at lowest of career (2.1 from 2.8)
    -GB:FB ratio improved from 0.87 to 0.96
    -HR/FB ratio is a little lower, 7% from 9%, although his career average is 7.6%

    So all in all, he’s due for some regression, but he’s definitely improving somewhat by getting his walks down and GB rates up. My guess is we’ll see him jump up to the mid 3.00′s, but still showing some solid results.

  4. drunkkruk

    April 29, 2013 08:33 AM

    So I’m I’ve been trying to understand sabermeterics (few years now) personally im still of old school thought, but I digress. I understand unusual (good or bad) performances but why can we expect kk to regress. isn’t it possible hes getting better? curious of a saber response.

  5. Jonny5

    April 29, 2013 08:44 AM

    Aaron, Kendrick obviously broke into Roy’s locker and stole his supply of Mojo. That’s the only acceptable explanation for what we see here. Do you really think he goes to the Amazon to fish??? He’s going to wrassle Anacondas for fish? Heavens no, the man was on a quest for the finest mojo in the world.

    Or his ball is just sinking better because it’s been so dang cold lately.

    www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6816

  6. Tomg

    April 29, 2013 09:00 AM

    Shortest distance for non-bunt ball in play: April 28, top 1st, two outs, bases loaded: Dom Brown, approximately two inches in front of the plate. Buck picks it up, touches home for force.

    Utley’s attempt to invent the ground rule homer last week still .111 HAI (Humor Added Index) better.

  7. Richard

    April 29, 2013 09:08 AM

    drunkkruk – he is getting better, but no one’s true talent is a 2.41 ERA… his regression wouldn’t be to where he was before, but to a mid-3s ERA… which is pretty good.

  8. SJHaack

    April 29, 2013 09:49 AM

    If Kyle Kendrick has permanently raised his K% to the 17-18% range and continues throwing ground balls at above a 45% rate, then he IS getting better. If those peripheral numbers fall, then he will run into the same problems he did before.

    He is not going to strand 85% of runners on base all year (The Happ Illusion), but if he keeps throwing the way he has been then the regression will be to a new Mean that we can all probably live with.

  9. JM

    April 29, 2013 10:53 AM

    my one big problem with regression to the mean, and I am a numbers guy, is that it does not, and cannot take into consideration a change in approach/condition/position/leverage/opponent until it is historical data. KK is getting better, he is developing a new pitch, changing his approach with pitch selection, walking fewer batters and staying out of high leverage situations. He has also thrown against the marlins and mets, which makes his small sample look grrrrrrrrreat!(sorry I had frosted flakes for breakfast) he will remain a solid 4 and continue to give the team a chance to win, which is all you can really ask…

  10. Ryan

    April 29, 2013 12:36 PM

    You can also add the Cardinals and Reds to that list. They certainly are not offensive slouches.

  11. SJHaack

    April 29, 2013 02:03 PM

    Regression to the mean can take a change in data, it just has to adjust for what the new mean for that data is. That’s essentially what FIP is trying to do. FIP suggests that based on the number of batters KK is striking out and walking that his ERA with neutral luck should be about 3.50. If he continues to pitch with the same level of consistency for the next 5 months of the season, you should theoretically see his ERA somewhere in the mid-3 range.

    It will be nearly impossible for him to continue to strand 85% of runners that reach, but it’s not impossible for him to have a K:BB around 3 if the changes are real. Instead of regressing to a pretty crappy swingman, the regression would be to a league average starter. Or perhaps even slightly better than league average!

    Our very own little Kyle, growing up.

  12. Phillie697

    April 30, 2013 09:49 AM

    @Richard,

    I beg to differ. Halladay in his prime, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and a handful of other pitchers have pitched like their true talent IS 2.41 ERA. Granted, KK is nowhere close to that :)

  13. Phillie697

    April 30, 2013 09:51 AM

    @JM,

    You’re right it doesn’t. That’s why sabermetrics stick to thing we can measure and prove. Otherwise we should all just buy crystal balls, or learn to be a scout. That’s why traditional scouting should never be replaced; it may allow a shrewd team to identify a meaningful change to a pitcher’s talent before the numbers show it.

  14. LTG

    April 30, 2013 03:03 PM

    Pedro has a 3 year span where his aggregated FIP is sub-2.00. What?

Next ArticleThe New and Improved Kyle Kendrick