Graph of the Intermittent Time Period
As you’re well aware, the Phillies’ offense hasn’t been great to start the 2013 season. They rank fourth from the bottom in average runs per game at 3.47 compared to the National League average 4.33. They rank in the bottom-third in all three triple-slash stats as well as weighted on-base average (wOBA).
You’ll hear this a lot over the next month-plus, but it’s worth repeating over and over: it’s still very early. No Phillie has logged his 70th plate appearance of the season yet. To put this in perspective, if Chase Utley has a 2-for-4 night tonight against the Cardinals, he will raise his batting average 15 points to .298.
That being said, we can still use what little stats we have descriptively rather than predictively. The following chart compares the Phillies’ wOBA by position to the league average.
In terms of raw runs above average, here’s the breakdown by position (assumed 70 plate appearances):
As you can see, the Phillies are getting well above-average production from second base (Chase Utley) and third base (Michael Young); average production from shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) and right field (Laynce Nix and John Mayberry); and below average production from catcher (Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero), first base (Ryan Howard), left field (Domonic Brown), and center field (Ben Revere).
We should see regression from Kratz as he’s suffering from a .176 BABIP and a zero percent walk rate. On the other side, Young should regress back from his .416 BABIP, as should Mayberry at .375. Brown is the most perplexing as he’s walking way less than we’d have expected and he’s hitting for some, but not a lot, of power. His average should certainly inflate (assuming he is healthy) but the two areas in which Brown has the most control — walks and power — he is failing in the early going.
Going into the season, we knew the Phillies would host an average offense at best and the first 15 games shouldn’t change that expectation.