Phillies Week in Review #1

Record: 2 wins, 4 losses
Standing: 2-4, 4th place in NL East (2.0 GB)

Top 3 offensive plays (by Win Probability Added, WPA)

  • April 6: Phillies trail 1-3, bottom 9th (bases loaded, 2 out): Kevin Frandsen two-out, 3-run double to right field off of Greg Holland (+.832 WPA)
  • April 1: Phillies trail 3-4, top 5th (bases loaded, 1 out): Chase Utley 2-run line drive single to right off of Tim Hudson (+.218 WPA)
  • April 6: Phillies trail 1-3, bottom 9th (runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 out): Michael Young walk to load the bases against Holland (+.179 WPA)

Bottom 3 offensive plays

  • April 7: Phillies trail 8-9, bottom 9th (runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 out): Erik Kratz strikeout against Kelvin Herrera (-.234 WPA)
  • April 6: Phillies trail 1-3, bottom 9th (bases loaded, 0 out): Domonic Brown strikeout against Holland (-.173 WPA)
  • April 6: Phillies trail 1-3, bottom 9th (bases loaded, 1 out): John Mayberry strikeout against Holland (-.151 WPA)

Top 3 pitching/defensive plays

  • April 4: Phillies lead 2-0, bottom 4th (runner on 1st, 1 out): Freddie Freeman grounds into inning-ending 6-4-3 double play (-.063 WPA)
  • April 5: Phillies lead 4-0, top 5th (bases loaded, 1 out): Chris Getz thrown out at home on Alcides Escobar ground ball fielders choice to first (-.061 WPA)
  • April 6: Phillies trail 1-3, top 7th (runner on 3rd, 1 out): Miguel Tejada picked off of third base by Humberto Quintero (-.061 WPA)

Bottom 3 pitching/defensive plays

  • April 5: Phillies lead 4-2, top 6th (bases loaded, 2 out): Alex Gordon triples to right field against Jeremy Horst (+.412 WPA)
  • April 7: Phillies lead 4-2, top 5th (bases loaded, 1 out): Billy Butler hits a grand slam to left field against Cole Hamels (+.377 WPA)
  • April 1: Phillies lead 2-0, bottom 1st (runner on 1st, 2 out): Freddie Freeman homers to right field against Hamels (+.196 WPA)

Best Hitter: Chase Utley (.391/.423/.696)
Best Starter: Cliff Lee (1 GS, 8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 0 BB)
Best Reliever: Mike Adams (2 G, 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB)

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23 comments

  1. Kyle

    April 08, 2013 08:40 AM

    Who is mike adams? Cant be better than Durbin if we don’t use him in big situations!

  2. Phillie697

    April 08, 2013 09:19 AM

    Relax, it’s 6 games and Adams has pitched a grand total of 2 games. Neither Baastardo or Aumont has given up a run either, so does that mean we didn’t need to sign Adams and should have spent the money on a worthwhile long reliever, since in 6 games ours kinda sucked ass?

    But if you realllllly want to draw conclusions… Our second best starting pitcher is… John Lannan!!! Even if Hamels returns to form (count on it), anyone feeling all that good about our rotation with John Lannan, an iffy Roy Halladay, and KK turning back into a pumpkin?

  3. Scott G

    April 08, 2013 09:31 AM

    How is Jeremy Horst vs Gordon the choice over Antonio Bastardo vs Gordon on Friday?

  4. Phillie697

    April 08, 2013 09:35 AM

    @Scott,

    Because it would not be the Phillies if we don’t have 12 questionable Cholly decisions in a week.

  5. TomG

    April 08, 2013 09:47 AM

    I was at that walk-off game on Saturday. Foax were leaving before the 8th – sux to be them, I guess. Frandsen’s walk-off double was almost as awesome to witness first-hand as that game least year against the Brewers when the Phils scored 6 runs in the 8th to win it 7-6. The latter game edges the former only because it took a lot more for the Phils to win it. Frandsen’s double was very reminiscent of Chooch’s bases clearing double against the Brewers, except Chooch’s went to the left field gap, as I recall.

    My son got both Adams’ and Frandsen’s autographs on the brim of his cap before the game, so he’s gonna put that cap in a hyperbaric chamber of some sort, he sez. That and the JRoll gold glove tchotchke. Plus? We saw (and he videoed) an actual car fire on 95 on the way to the game, which may’ve been his favorite thing overall. This was at like 4:10 because my son make us get there when the gates open so he can try to snag home run balls during batting practice. (Francoeur tossed him one in right, but some other, older dude stuck his hand in the way and the ball fell back to the warning track. Jerk.) But he also insists we stay till the bitter end, and so far that policy of his has paid off with a walk-off and that 6-run comeback last year.

  6. TomG

    April 08, 2013 09:48 AM

    ^^*last* year …

  7. LTG

    April 08, 2013 10:17 AM

    Was KK all that bad on Friday? He cruised into the 5th. Had a little trouble in the 5th and 6th and then Manuel threw gasoline on it. (Who walks the go-ahead run on base and then brings in the 5th best, at most, reliever on the team? Why didn’t Aumont–or Adams–face Butler?)

  8. Phillie697

    April 08, 2013 10:27 AM

    There is a reason why they charge runs to the pitcher who put the runner on base in the first place… Because he put them on base in the first place. He gave up 8 hits in 5.2 innings, and that had nothing to do with the intentional walk.

    But he’s not 7.94 ERA bad, no. And come on, you really think Cholly would EVER put Aumont or Adams in the 6th inning? Those are not his “sixth inning guys.”

  9. LTG

    April 08, 2013 11:00 AM

    It’s not a great idea to point to the number of hits surrendered by a pitcher as evidence of a bad performance. KK only gave up one extra base hit and induced lots of grounders. 2 BBs and 3 Ks isn’t great for him but not terrible. At any rate, I was hoping for a more fine-grained analysis because even the things that went well for him could have been a bit lucky (bad swings at bad pitches). I wasn’t able to watch the game; so, I have no independent knowledge of what his performance was like.

  10. LTG

    April 08, 2013 11:08 AM

    “There is a reason why they charge runs to the pitcher who put the runner on base in the first place…”

    Because it makes the math easier? Because it’s better to have a single standard than lots of contextually sensitive rules? Because we have false beliefs about causation in baseball? Because we’ve always done it that way?

    There are also reasons we don’t use ERA in a single season–or even two or three–as a straightforward indicator of a pitcher’s quality. Among them are that the above scoring rule distorts the relationship between pitcher performance and (earned) runs charged.

  11. JM

    April 08, 2013 11:24 AM

    I have been mildly impressed with the overall plate approach thus far. on the surface, and I have not been keeping stats on it, it seems that the hitters are taking more pitches and walking more. That said, it frustrated me to no end to see Dom Brown and JMJ watch belt high fastballs on the 1st pitch against a predictable closer on Saturday. Sure the guy was wild, but you go up there looking for a 1st pitch belt high fastball, and let the other crap go…but oh well, it worked out in the end…

  12. mratfink

    April 08, 2013 02:01 PM

    JM it didnt bother me to see Brown take the first pitch there even if it was a belt-high fastball because the guy had just walked three batters in a row and couldn’t find the plate if he had a gps system. if brown had swung first pitch there i would’ve been pissed off as hell

  13. Richard

    April 08, 2013 02:03 PM

    “if brown had swung first pitch there i would’ve been pissed off as hell”

    I strongly doubt you’d have been pissed off as hell if he’d hit it for a game-winner

  14. Jim

    April 08, 2013 02:45 PM

    “How is Jeremy Horst vs Gordon the choice over Antonio Bastardo vs Gordon on Friday?”

    The right choice was to bring in Aumont to face Butler, but Bastardo over Horst would have been fine too.

  15. Scott G

    April 08, 2013 05:00 PM

    The right choice would have been to bring in Adams or Papelbon vs Butler. Except, Pap pitched in a meaningless game on Wednesday that rendered him useless Friday after also pitching Thursday

  16. Spree75

    April 08, 2013 08:04 PM

    Man… How does Durbin not make that list. Including tonight he’s now let in 7 inherited base runners. What’s it going to take for Charlie to use a different reliever (please not Horst) with base runners?

  17. Phillie697

    April 08, 2013 10:06 PM

    @LTG,

    It’s one game. Not a lot of refined analysis can be given. I mean, his SIERA and xFIP for ONE GAME was 4.71 and 4.37, which aren’t very good, but it’s just one game. You’re asking for the moon when there is only a handful of dirt to go with. What are we going to do, point to his BABIP of .364 and 50% LOB from ONE GAME as saying he was unlucky?

    My point is imo he hasn’t pitched any different than the KK I know and don’t love, which is mediocre. As for watching the game, he didn’t strike out a lot, had a lot of balls put into play, which resulted in quite a few hits. There was nothing dominant about his performance, nor did I expect any.

  18. Phillie697

    April 08, 2013 10:07 PM

    On a sad note… I know it’s just two starts, but is Halladay just done?

  19. LTG

    April 08, 2013 10:17 PM

    697,

    The way to do more fine-grained analysis would be to look at pitch-locations, pitch-selections, velocities, release points, etc. It is not to look at other statistics and metrics that are only meaningful over much larger samples.

    KK made actual gains in his peripherals last year, especially his K%. When you said “turning back into a pumpkin” it made me wonder whether there was anything in is performance that would warrant that. So far, I’m guessing the answer is, “no, let’s keep watching”.

  20. Phillie697

    April 09, 2013 01:02 AM

    Well, if you’re referring to the original comment it wasn’t a statement of fact, it was a hypothetical about how would anyone feel if the results of the first 6 games is indicative of the rest of season. You know me better to draw conclusions based on 6 games, LOL.

  21. Phillie697

    April 09, 2013 01:12 AM

    And btw, even pitch location, pitch selection, velocity, release points, etc. are not reliable with one game’s worth of data.

  22. LTG

    April 09, 2013 07:33 AM

    No. But they help paint a more complete picture. And give us things to look for in the future.

  23. LTG

    April 09, 2013 07:36 AM

    Also I didn’t attribute a conclusion to you really. But rather your reaction made me wonder if his start was worse than the box let on.

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