2013 Predictions with the Crashburn Staff

With the regular season just hours away from starting, it’s time for the Crashburn Alley staff to reveal their 2013 season predictions. We will pick over/unders, division standings, and end-of-season awards. Feel free to let us know where you think we’ll be dead wrong and where you think we got it right using the comments below.

Team Wins Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
Detroit Tigers 90.0 Under  Over Under Over Over
Los Angeles Dodgers 90.0 Under  Under Over Over Over
Washington Nationals 90.0 Over  Over Over Over Over
Los Angeles Angels 89.5 Under  Over Under Under Over
Cincinnati Reds 88.5 Over  Over Over Over Over
Texas Rangers 87.0 Under  Under Over Under Under
Toronto Blue Jays 86.5 Over  Over Over Over Under
New York Yankees 86.5 Under  Under Over Under Under
San Francisco Giants 86.0 Over  Under Under Over Under
Atlanta Braves 86.0 Over  Under Over Over Over
Tampa Bay Rays 86.0 Over  Over Over Over Over
St. Louis Cardinals 85.5 Under  Over Over Over Under
Oakland Athletics 83.0 Under  Under Under Over Under
Philadelphia Phillies 81.5 Under  Over Under Over Over
Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5 Under  Under Under Under Under
Chicago White Sox 80.5 Over  Under Under Over Over
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5 Over  Under Under Over Over
Boston Red Sox 79.5 Over  Over Under Under Over
Kansas City Royals 79.0 Under  Over Under Under Under
Pittsburgh Pirates 79.0 Under  Over Over Under Under
Cleveland Indians 77.5 Over  Over Over Under Over
Baltimore Orioles 76.5 Under  Under Under Over Over
Seattle Mariners 76.5 Under  Under Under Under Under
San Diego Padres 74.5 Over  Over Under Under Over
New York Mets 74.0 Over  Under Under Over Over
Chicago Cubs 72.0 Over  Over Over Under Over
Colorado Rockies 71.5 Under  Under Under Under Under
Minnesota Twins 64.5 Over  Over Under Over Over
Miami Marlins 64.5 Over  Over Over Under Over
Houston Astros 59.5 Over Over Under Under Over

The standings, starting in the American League:

AL East Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
1  Blue Jays  Rays Yankees Blue Jays Rays
2 Yankees Blue Jays  Blue Jays Rays Blue Jays
3  Rays Yankees Rays Yankees Yankees
4  Red Sox  Red Sox Red Sox Orioles Red Sox
5  Orioles  Orioles Orioles Red Sox Orioles
AL Central Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
1  Tigers  Tigers Indians Tigers Tigers
2 White Sox  Indians Tigers Indians White Sox
3 Indians  Royals Royals White Sox Indians
4 Royals  White Sox White Sox Royals Royals
5 Twins  Twins Twins Twins Twins
AL West Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
1  Angels  Angels  Rangers Angels Angels
2 Rangers  Rangers  Angels Athletics Rangers
3 Athletics  Athletics Athletics Rangers Athletics
4 Mariners  Mariners  Mariners Mariners Mariners
5 Astros  Astros  Astros Astros Astros

And the National League:

NL East Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
1  Nationals Nationals Nationals Nationals Nationals
2 Braves  Phillies Braves Braves Braves
3 Phillies  Braves Phillies Phillies Phillies
4  Mets  Mets  Marlins Mets Mets
5  Marlins  Marlins Mets Marlins Marlins
NL Central Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
1 Reds  Reds  Reds Cardinals Reds
2 Cardinals  Cardinals Cardinals Reds Cardinals
3 Brewers  Pirates Pirates Pirates Brewers
4 Cubs  Brewers  Brewers Brewers Cubs
5 Pirates  Cubs Cubs Cubs Pirates
NL West Bill Eric Michael Paul Ryan
1 Giants  Dodgers  Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers
2 Dodgers  Giants Giants Giants Giants
3 Padres  Padres D-Backs D-backs Padres
4 D-backs  D-backs Padres Padres D-backs
5 Rockies Rockies Rockies Rockies Rockies

The playoff picture:

Bill Baer

  • ALCS: Blue Jays vs. Tigers: Blue Jays advance in 6
  • NLCS: Nationals vs. Giants: Nationals advance in 7
  • World Series: Blue Jays vs. Nationals: Nationals win in 6

Eric Longenhagen

  • ALCS: Rays vs Angels: Rays advance in 6
  • NLCS: Phillies vs Reds: Reds advance in 7
  • World Series: Reds vs Rays: Reds win in 5

Michael Baumann

  • ALCS: Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Rangers advance in 6
  • NLCS: Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals advance in 7
  • World Series: Nationals vs. Rangers: Nationals win in 4

Paul Boye

  • ALCS: Rays vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays advance in 5
  • NLCS: Nationals vs Giants: Nationals advance in 6
  • World Series: Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals win in 6

Ryan Sommers

  • ALCS: Rays vs. Angels: Rays advance in 7
  • NLCS: Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals advance in 6
  • World Series: Rays vs. Nationals: Nationals win in 6

The end-of-season awards:

MVP Cy Young ROY
AL NL AL NL AL NL
Bill  Trout  Heyward Verlander  Hamels Bundy  Gyorko
Eric  Beltre  McCutchen  Moore Strasburg Archer  Taveras
Michael Trout   Stanton Verlander Strasburg Bauer Yelich
Paul Cespedes Votto Darvish Latos Bundy Yelich
Ryan Trout Votto Sale Lee Profar Taveras

Leave a Reply

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29 comments

  1. @cip23

    March 31, 2013 08:10 AM

    Good stuff. Just don’t see Phils under .500 though, especially if you think Hamels is Cy Young winner. I think he and Lee will win 32-36 games. If they just play .500 in other 100 games (assuming they lost all their other starts), they are already over that number. Anyway, so glad we are ready to start!

  2. hk

    March 31, 2013 08:42 AM

    Bill,

    From where, and how recently, did you get those over / under Wins numbers? In some cases, they are significantly different from sportsbook.com‘s numbers and would present some pretty good middle opportunities. For instance, sportsbook.com has the Phillies number at 84.5 and Detroit’s at 93.

  3. @cip23

    March 31, 2013 09:45 AM

    For what it’s worth, the Aria in LV had the Phils at 83.5 last Sunday.

  4. Jesse

    March 31, 2013 10:48 AM

    You think that’s optimism, cip23? I think Hamels and Lee will win 32-36 games EACH!

  5. Pencilfish

    March 31, 2013 11:39 AM

    For the Phillies to win only 81 (or less) this year implies the 2013 squad is no better than last year, despite having Howard and Utley back, Brown in the OF and a better BP. One would think this should generate a few extra wins.

  6. Greg

    March 31, 2013 12:55 PM

    @pencilfish- But Chooch is out for a month, Halladay is no guarantee to be better, Manuel may actually start both Youngs consistently…

  7. Greg

    March 31, 2013 12:56 PM

    A bit surprised that the under/under for the Nats is 90. hard to predict more than 90 wins for any team I guess, but 90 seems a bit conservative, given all the hype. But no surprise that everyone took the over.
    A little surprised that everyone took the under for the Dbacks, though.

  8. EricL

    March 31, 2013 03:24 PM

    The only thing that really stands out to me is Michael’s Stanton MVP choice. I just don’t see any reason for teams to give him much to hit. I think a high OBP is likely but with lower counting numbers (HR/RBI) than you would otherwise expect from him.

  9. Jim

    March 31, 2013 04:27 PM

    The only possible way I see the Phillies finishing below .500 is if they get killed with injuries worse than they did last year and go into full rebuilding mode. They are clearly more talented and healthier at this point.

    I’ve also been genuinely shocked at how many writers have picked them to win less than 80 games. I just don’t see how they can say that unless they were being lazy and going with the whole “too old to compete” narrative that seems to be popular this year. Well except for Keith Law, who I am sure make his prediction just to troll fans.

  10. Ken Bland

    March 31, 2013 05:13 PM

    Since division play in 1969, only one time have NL East standings repeated the previous year. Whike on paper, where the games not played, it’s quite reasonable to predict that for ’13, 3 of the 5 NL East looks ahead are expecting that rare history. The year it happened was the Expos first year in DC, so even then. the standings were different by city identification.

    Three of 5 folks here predicted Trout for MVP. That’s popular as you bounce around the pre season picks across the country. It’s interesting in multiple ways. In no particular order, with Albert and Josh in the lineup with him, despite Trout’s terrific all around game, he’s got good competition to be his own team’s MVP. Secondly, people seem quick to overlook sophomaore slump/regression possibilities. Lastly, I don’t recall seeing one prediction for Cabrera to repeat. My sense is that by as late as July, people may be discussing if Cabrera can repeat as TC winner. Out of that, I offer no prediction, just cautious reaction to overbuying a player’s greatness in a field of strong competition. Which defies the sport of predicting, of course, but I’m a sense things will happen guy, not a predictor.

    Kudos to Hall of Famer to be Frank Thomas, and Jeff Nelson for their pre-season picks. Both have the Phils winning the divvy, and losing to the Tigers come fall.

  11. Mike

    March 31, 2013 06:17 PM

    I was expecting Bauman to pick JBJ for MVP. But seriously no one thinks he can win ROY?

  12. Bliz

    March 31, 2013 07:56 PM

    Not sure I follow the concept that third base is an area of decline for the Phils this season. Polanco only played in 90 games last season and had a .629 OPS. Even with M. Young’s less than stellar defense, will he really prove that much less productive than Polanco/Wigginton/Frandsen/etc? Seems to me, worst case is a wash, with the most likely scenario being a slight upgrade.

    If the Phils are going to be no better – or even worse – than last season, I would not base that assertion on their third base situation.

  13. hk

    March 31, 2013 08:46 PM

    Last year, Michael Young produced -1.7 WAR, a total that would have been lower if Ron Washington had bestowed fewer than 651 PA’s upon him, while Polanco and Frandsen combined to produce 1.9 WAR.

  14. EDGE

    March 31, 2013 09:46 PM

    Polanco had a .04 WAR last year, Frandsen had a 1.5. The last 5 years Young has had a WAR of 2.6, 2.8,2.4,3.4 and -1.7.

    The question is who would you trust, a guy with no history at the MLB level or do you trust that a 37 year old Young will rebound and produce a WAR around 2.5-3 which seemed like a sure thing until last year. Personally I think Young will be around a 2 WAR, which won’t be a real improvement over last year.

  15. Ryan Sommers

    March 31, 2013 09:46 PM

    If Michael Young was actually a third baseman and not a first baseman/DH maybe it could be a “wash” but I’m pretty sure it won’t be

  16. Cheesecrop

    April 01, 2013 04:52 AM

    I diagree strongly w/anyone who’d say this yrs. version of the Phils will be worse than last yrs. .500 club. As others noted, a healthy Howard & Utley clearly mean this team will have a more productive offense, providing, obviously, that there are no injuries. Since injuries can happen to any team, it’s impossible to say the Phils are totally doomed.

    I think the Phils have a chance to make the playoffs, still, after all this time. Figure that Harper is bound to regress slightly (the sophomore slump). In addition, Strasburg has never completed a full 162 as an unquestioned “Ace”.

    In the case of the Braves, they’ve a tough line-up, but it’s also whiff prone. I know, don’t put so much emphasis on strikeouts. When you have one or two guys who hack away, it’s one thing, but when your whole team is prone to this, how many rallies will fall short? How many may even get started? Your pitching will have to hold up, & I heard one of the bullpen guys, Venters, is already starting the season on the DL.

    If Brown is for real(& he sure looks it), we can run w/the other two. Topping the Nats might be an issue, but I definitely think a Wild-Card might be in the works. I’ll also say the writers on this site must feel it’s not out of the realm of possibility, either, as I see two diff. Phils pitchers in the Cy Young hunt.

  17. hk

    April 01, 2013 06:11 AM

    Even more disconcerting than Young’s defense is the drop in his power over the past few years. His ISO has dropped from .196 in 2009 to .160 in 2010 to .136 in 2011 to .090 last year, all while playing his home games in one of the best parks in MLB for RHB’s. If he continues to walk at such a low rate and his power continues to decline, he’s going to need a very high BABIP (like the .366 he posted in 2011) to generate enough offense to overcome his bad defense and post 2 WAR.

  18. Jonny5

    April 01, 2013 08:19 AM

    I see Toronto is being penalized for past seasons of sucktitude by someone…. And I also see that somebody is the clear cut favorite for a PBRD award. Pessimism Beyond a reasonable doubt goes to Michael B here, hands down. You sir, are clearly a cut above the rest when it comes to pessimism. It may not be a bad thing, or even wrong. It just is.

  19. CB

    April 01, 2013 01:19 PM

    @cheesecrop

    Harper is on pace for 648 homeruns currently.

  20. Phillie697

    April 01, 2013 03:13 PM

    “Good stuff. Just don’t see Phils under .500 though, especially if you think Hamels is Cy Young winner. I think he and Lee will win 32-36 games. If they just play .500 in other 100 games (assuming they lost all their other starts), they are already over that number.”

    That’s not optimism. That’s just, for a lack of a better word, pretty useless. “If the two really good pitchers we have win more than half of their starts, and the rest of the team play .500 ball, we’ll finish above .500!!!”

    Ahm, DUH?

  21. Phillie697

    April 01, 2013 03:15 PM

    Maybe @cip23 was making an early April Fools joke. If so, bravo, you got me.

  22. Phillie697

    April 01, 2013 03:30 PM

    Things that can go wrong for the Phillies compared to last year:

    1. Roy Halladay’s decline continues. Remember, he had a 3.60 xFIP and 3.62 SIERA. He was pretty good even last year. I’m not so sure he can stay that way.

    2. Chase Utley plays even less games than he did last season. Chase played 83 games last year to the tune of 3.6 WAR. He was fantastic when he did play. It’s anyone’s guess if he can play 83 games this year. Don’t hold your breath.

    3. Ryan Howard plays more games and stay just as crappy as last year. Remember, he produced a negative WAR last year, so that means the more he plays, the more he’ll hurt the team at the same production level. Amazing, eh? Well, I do think this is probably not going to happen.

    4. Jimmy Rollins gets old. The ageless wonder played a whopping 156 games last year at the age of 33, good for 4.8 WAR. He’s now one year older, which means more injury risks and less, well, everything else. 2009 and 2010 weren’t that long ago.

    5. Michael Young doesn’t rebound. MY produced negative WAR last year too, so the more he plays… Well, see the Ryan Howard section above.

    6. Carlos Ruiz falls back to earth. 114 games and 5.2 WAR. Yeah, not going to happen again. With him being out 25 games to start the season, it’s 50/50 if he gets to 114 games again to begin with.

    7. Kendrick/Lannan being worse than Kendrick/Worley. Seems like a pretty likely scenario, since Lannan, you know, suck.

    Of course, there are also a number of things that could go right, but plenty of people here seem to have covered that. Just want to put some objectivity into this thing, and answer the “I’ve also been genuinely shocked at how many writers have picked them to win less than 80 games. I just don’t see how they can say that unless they were being lazy and going with the whole “too old to compete” narrative that seems to be popular this year.” question.

  23. Cheesecrop

    April 02, 2013 04:28 AM

    By CB on Apr 1, 2013

    @cheesecrop

    Harper is on pace for 648 homeruns currently.

    ———————————————

    By Ryan Sommers | @Phylan | on Apr 1, 2013

    The “sophomore slump” is not actually a thing why do people keep bringing this up

    ———————————————
    cb – I love it! So much for my poppin’ off on this site about a “sophomore slump”, ha-ha! :)

    Ryan – Those of us who use the term “sophomore slump” use it because we need a sense of mystery & wonder about the game. This allows us to avoid the tedious, boring, fully literal world that has developed around the game ( a little something called “playing the percentages”, etc.). It’s the reason why, if board game baseball is not stopped, one day MLB will wake up & wonder why soccer stadiums have grown to the size of baseball fields, & all the ex-baseball fans are sitting in them.

    This message has been underwritten by the Harry Houdini Home Run Society, where we always say, “We used to have a slogan, but it vanished.”

  24. Phillie697

    April 02, 2013 10:32 AM

    The fact that more and more fans are embracing the “literal world” in the game of baseball, as opposed to holding on the so-called “mystery & wonder,” seems to belie your theory that MLB is “destroying” the game; after all, it’s the fans themselves who decide which way they want to watch baseball. I think what you meant to say is that you might stop loving baseball if it goes the direction it’s headed. To which I say, I’m sorry, but good luck.

  25. Cheesecrop

    April 02, 2013 02:35 PM

    By Phillie697 on Apr 2, 2013

    The fact that more and more fans are embracing the “literal world” in the game of baseball, as opposed to holding on the so-called “mystery & wonder,” seems to belie your theory that MLB is “destroying” the game; after all, it’s the fans themselves who decide which way they want to watch baseball. I think what you meant to say is that you might stop loving baseball if it goes the direction it’s headed. To which I say, I’m sorry, but good luck.
    ———————————————
    You, sir, have no clue what I meant to say.

    (Though I’ve no doubt you imagine in your own mind that you can figure out everyone)

    In the meantime, we’ll discuss this more closely, becauzzzze, the bare bones of it all is the only thing that matterrrzzzz…

    what were we saying again…zzzzzzzzzzzzz…

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz… :)

  26. LTG

    April 02, 2013 09:52 PM

    Why does anyone respond to Cheesecrop anymore? The anti-FJM, troll schtick is… obvious. You are not having a conversation with her/him.

  27. Cheesecrop

    April 03, 2013 03:41 PM

    LTG – You would be in error here.

    A troll tends to harrass everyone, call them names, etc., w/little regard for any subject at hand.

    If you had bothered to notice, I have never once provoked anyone by using derogatory or insulting language. I have never picked on anyone’s family or friends. In addition, on more than one occasion, I have admitted I was wrong in my assessment of things. The avg. troll does not go around readily admitting they were wrong. Look further up this page, at one of my postings. I have the ability to laugh at myself, something the avg. troll cannot or will not do.

    If simply expressing your freedom to disagree w/something is now the new codeword for a troll, then I guess that means I really am one, though I’ve never heard anyone refer to it as such.

    In the case of Phillie697, I simply find the gentleman to be completely humorless about certain things. I have attempted (weakly, I admit) to lighten the mood, at certain points. Read the Ryan Sommers blog prior to this on Roy Halladay, where I attempt what I perceive to be a very civilized, and non-troll like, answer to what Mr. Sommers writes.

    I am not a troll, nor have I done anything wrong. Reading all of my previous postings bears this out.

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