Roy Halladay Says Offense Had Role in 2012 Struggles

Roy Halladay said something interesting after his second spring training start against the Yankees yesterday:

Halladay said he struggled last year with having to get back on the mound after sitting in the dugout, especially after Philadelphia would put up big offensive innings with long rallies.

[…]

“Before, those were the innings that would kill me, so I feel good right now, the way I feel physically and conditioning-wise,” Halladay said.

I went back through Halladay’s 2012 game logs to see how true this was. I looked at his biggest innings. Here’s a look in chronological order.

May 2 @ Braves

  • Allowed six runs in the bottom of the fifth
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent six hitters to the plate. Scored two runs and saw a total of 15 pitches.

May 22 vs. Nationals

  • Allowed four runs in the top of the third
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent six hitters to the plate. Scored one run and saw a total of 23 pitches.

May 27 @ Cardinals

  • Allowed four runs in the bottom of the first
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent three hitters to the plate. Scored no runs and saw a total of 11 pitches.

July 23 vs. Brewers

  • Allowed two runs in the top of the first
  • Allowed three runs in the top of the fourth
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent five hitters to the plate. Scored no runs and saw a total of 27 pitches.

August 20 vs. Reds

  • Allowed two runs in the top of the first
  • Allowed three runs in the top of the fifth
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent four hitters to the plate. Scored one run and saw a total of 16 pitches.

August 31 @ Braves

  • Allowed four runs in the bottom of the fifth
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent four hitters to the plate. Scored no runs and saw a total of 17 pitches.

September 11 vs. Marlins

  • Allowed two runs in the top of the third
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent three hitters to the plate. Scored no runs and saw a total of 8 pitches.
  • Allowed two runs in the top of the seventh
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent nine hitters to the plate. Scored four runs and saw a total of 40 pitches.

September 22 vs. Braves

  • Allowed three runs in the top of the first
  • Allowed four runs in the top of the second
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent four hitters to the plate. Scored no runs and saw a total of 16 pitches.

September 29 @ Marlins

  • Allowed three runs in the bottom of the first
  • Previous inning: Phillies sent three hitters to the plate. Scored no runs and saw a total of 11 pitches.

There doesn’t seem to be any real trend to Halladay’s struggles. On average prior to Halladay’s big innings, the Phillies sent 4-5 hitters to the plate, scored 0-1 runs, and saw 18-19 pitches. The Phillies’ offense saw 20 or more pitches in only three of the ten listed games and the Phillies scored two or more runs in only two games.

Leave a Reply

*

17 comments

  1. hk

    March 02, 2013 09:56 AM

    That’s the first time I’ve read a complaint that the Phils offense scored too many runs last year.

  2. RR

    March 02, 2013 10:53 AM

    Judging only from the quote here, he didn’t say he got clobbered. All he said was that he struggled after their big innings and long rallies. So, the approach is wrong. It would be better to look at the Phillies big innings during his starts and learn how many pitches it took him to get the next three outs, regardless of how many opponent runs were scored. Maybe he meant that affected how long he stayed in the game. Who knows? … I’m certain this sort of reporting is why Carlton stopped talking to the media. Doc was conveying an impression, not the result of scientific investigation.

  3. Richard

    March 02, 2013 11:04 AM

    following on from RR’s comment (and somewhat addressing hk’s), Halladay did enjoy pretty solid offensive support last season…. however, looking at the May 2 game, just for one example, the Phillies half inning immediately preceding the Braves big inning may not itself have been big or long, but it was part of a game in which the Phillies did have a few big innings and scored overall a lot of runs… so perhaps it had a cumulative effect on him? Or perhaps he’s just grasping at explanations. He may legitimately had difficulty keeping loose, but does not really know why.

  4. TJD

    March 02, 2013 04:11 PM

    If Kyle Kendrick had said something like this, everyone would blast him for stupidity.

    But since it’s Halladay, people defend him so much to say he shouldn’t bother talking to media.

  5. BenJah

    March 03, 2013 10:19 AM

    gosh darn run support! the nerve of them :p

  6. EDGE

    March 03, 2013 07:14 PM

    Either TJD has a crush on KK or he really hates Doc. No idea why there’s a need to bring up KK to rationalize how people defend Doc. Maybe it’s the fact he’s a two time cy young winner, has pitched a perfect game, a no hitter in the playoffs, might be a HOF, and has a legendary work ethic. But, yea lets argue about how people treat these two so differently. Bringing up Hamels or Lee would’ve made more sense, but KK? Come on.

  7. Iceman

    March 03, 2013 10:07 PM

    Not sure if this has been touched on, but there was indeed a ‘trend’ to Halladay’s struggles: he labored badly out of the stretch. It was very clear just watching him that he was extremely uncomfortable with guys on, and the numbers back up that perception.

    Opposing Hitters, bases empty (career): .250/.287/.374/.661 (BABIP: .292)
    Opposing Hitters, bases empty (2012): .242/.282/.371/.653 (BABIP: .283)

    Halladay was exactly the same pitcher (almost eerily so) out of the wind-up as he has been his entire career, with the exception of a little more luck. His problems were exclusively from the stretch:

    Opposing Hitters, runners on (career): .257/.305/.368/.673 (BABIP: .300)
    Opposing Hitters, runners on (2012): .293/.343/.468/.811 (BABIP: .339)

    Last year, hitters essentially turned from 2012 Ty Wigginton into 2012 Bryce Harper against Halladay with runners on. With RISP, thanks to some bad luck, it was even worse:

    Opposing Hitters, RISP (career): .247/.301/.349/.650 (BABIP: .294)
    Opposing Hitters, RISP (2012): .304/.345/.496/.841 (BABIP: .354)

    It makes sense that Doc had trouble out of the stretch if he was having lower back problems. He was pretty obviously uncomfortable and more than likely overthrowing to compensate. If his back problems really are cleared up, which should take care of his problems out of the stretch, he’ll be a lot closer to the 2010/2011 Doc than the 2012 version.

  8. Jonny5

    March 04, 2013 01:54 PM

    Or maybe Halladay just had an “off” season and long innings sitting on the bench did effect him more than normal. I mean we are all well aware he’s talking about a season where he had injury issues and some endurance issues too. I’d say to him, in his mind, it was longer innings on the bench that hurt him, when in reality it just effected him more this season due to the other more issues he was having.

  9. pedro3131

    March 04, 2013 03:08 PM

    Whatever his perception is, as Bill pointed out, the data doesn’t back that up. It wasn’t even a case of well maybe there’s some truth but his memory embellished things – the facts are it had no statistical effect.

    I’d be very interested in someone more closely examining the data the Iceman presented because there is a fairly definitive correlation there. Was there any longitudinal trends? Was his location / velocity affected more out of the stretch then not? If we can isolate a few things as causal, are they things that can be corrected or do we have to resign ourselves to Halladay turning into a 2nd-3rd tier pitcher?

  10. Richard

    March 04, 2013 03:16 PM

    “Whatever his perception is, as Bill pointed out, the data doesn’t back that up. It wasn’t even a case of well maybe there’s some truth but his memory embellished things – the facts are it had no statistical effect.”

    I thought the data Bill presented told us little – unless we take Halladay’s remarks too literally (i.e., that he was only talking about those innings, and only those innings, immediately preceding an apparently bad inning of his own). Hence some of the other comments were trying to find other possibilities for what Halladay might have meant.

  11. pedro3131

    March 05, 2013 09:59 AM

    “Halladay said he struggled last year with having to get back on the mound after sitting in the dugout, especially after Philadelphia would put up big offensive innings with long rallies.”

    The data Bill showed us, while not pointing to an alternative hypothesis, certainly directly contradicts Doc’s theory on why he struggled

  12. Phillie697

    March 05, 2013 11:46 AM

    @Richard,

    pedro is right. This is still a saber site right? We don’t make shit up without statistical proof. Halladay can say whatever the hell he wants; he’s a future HOFer and he’s earned the right. As long as such comments make him feel more confident by blaming phantom things that don’t exist, preach on brother!

  13. LTG

    March 05, 2013 01:25 PM

    Look, the “data” BB provided is not sound for two reasons. First, the Halladay hypothesis is not defined well enough to be tested. Second, the data uses pitches as a substitute for time, which is not necessarily licit. These are saber-oriented reasons for reading BB’s argument and saying, “Eh, inconclusive.”

    But, yeah, I don’t much care what Halladay believes so long as what he believes is securely conducive to pitching well.

Next ArticleGood Sights from Clearwater