Looks Like We Picked the Wrong Week to Quit Sniffing Choo

Ruben Amaro Jr. may have nurtured a bit of a reputation for offseason ostentatiousness, but there didn’t seem to be much room for it entering this offseason. The Phillies’ needs were obvious enough: outfielders, likely two, one of which a centerfielder, and a serviceable third base solution. The market at both positions was similarly straightfoward, with a few headliners like Hamilton, Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Angel Pagan available at centerfield, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, and some lesser names in the corners, and some decidedly slim pickings at third base. Circumstances seemed primed for an offseason that would grow more predictable as a few big pieces found their new homes.

So it’s been interesting to watch many of the obvious free agent targets come off the board as the Winter Meetings in Nashville have progressed. The Phillies not only non-tendered Nate Schierholtz (a puzzling choice considering his usefulness and probable low arbitration figure), but have been rather quiet as quality outfielders for hire have signed elsewhere. This doesn’t exactly comport with Amaro’s typical offseason; one could well have expected him to acquire a certain target early, and offer whatever deal was necessary to secure it before the market had a chance to take shape. Instead, in the past week, the Phillies have collected plenty of interesting data about how that market is behaving. It ranges from some seemingly reasonable deals, such as Angel Pagan’s 4 year, $40 million contract with San Francisco, to the expensive and risky (but probably acceptable) 5 years, $75 million that B.J. Upton earned from the Braves, to the outright inexplicable: 3 years, $39 million for Shane Victorino from the Boston Red Sox. It’s clear the the Phillies have stayed on the safe end of some dangerous potential bidding wars.

Superficially, the Phillies staying mum during the Winter Meetings would make for a boring start to the offseason. But in fact, as the obvious free agent options have dwindled, the December and January landscape has only grown more fascinating. The likelihood that at least one trade will be needed to satisfy the team’s needs has risen substantially, and that broadens the field of possible solutions. Early in the week, the notion that Curtis Granderson could be dealt for the right price emerged from multiple sources. Granderson, who is owed $15 million via an escalated club option next season, hit .232/.319/.492 for the Yankees last season, and is a capable defender in center. The Yankees, while trying to lower their payroll to a level that will be more advantageous under the new CBA, are still, as ever, trying to compete in 2013, so Granderson’s value to them next season is just as high as it would be for the Phillies; this makes it difficult to craft a deal that would be acceptable to them, especially as they’ve watched free agent targets like Jeff Keppinger and Eric Chavez go elsewhere. Brett Gardner taking the reins in center is not out of the question, but Nick Swisher is unlikely to return, and so their outfield possibilities are bleaker still without Granderson.

There is another, more intriguing possibility. Open as the AL Central perenially seems to be, it’s difficult to imagine the Cleveland Indians putting together a credible bid for it in 2013. Predictably, Jon Heyman reported on Wednesday that outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is “very available,” with the Indians seeking “long-term assets.” Choo turned 30 in July, and since 2008 has hit .291/.384/.471 for the Indians, the only blemish an injury-hampered 2011. In that same time period, he ranks 8th among 144 qualified MLB outfielders in wRC+, in the same neighborhood as Josh Hamilton, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Beltran, and 3rd in on-base percentage, behind only Manny Ramirez and Matt Holliday. The latter is thanks in part to an 11.4% walk rate, compared to the 2008-2012 ML average of 8.7%. More walks and on-base ability would be welcome additions to the Phillie lineup, which finished 14th in the NL in BB% and 10th in the NL in OBP in 2012. Choo also projects to be relatively inexpensive. Entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, Matt Swartz pegs Choo’s case at $7.9 million.

Is it a pipe dream? Possibly. It’s more likely than it was a week ago, when there was no chatter about Choo at all, but there have been no rumors forthcoming thus far that indicate the Phillies are in the mix. Add to that Buster Olney’s source that asserts the price for Choo is “high.” This is, of course, more rhetoric than reference point; who really knows what “high” is in the court of Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro. But, as with any potential trade this offseason, the Phillies find themselves low on ammunition. The good news is that, considering the state of the organization, there are few pieces the Phillies could send away that would constitute a significant blow to the farm system. The bad news is that it will be difficult to seriously impress the Indians with the likes of Trevor May and Vance Worley, the two assets that the Phillies are rumored to be bringing to the table this week. Worley is at a low point in perceived value, struggling with injuries last season, and it may be difficult to convince anyone that his true talent level is closer to his 2011 season. Trevor May would constitute a “long term asset” that the Indians seek, but he failed to progress in 2012, and has struggled to establish a repertoire of secondary pitches that could feasibly keep him in a starting rotation.

That’s not to say the Phillies don’t have more attractive assets, like Tommy Joseph and perhaps Jesse Biddle, but they’re not likely to want to part with either, considering that the sheen has seemingly worn off of Sebastian Valle, and the dearth of high-profile arms on the farm. It bears wondering whether, when Jim Salisbury reported on the Phillies’ enthusiasm for Jonathan Pettibone, Ethan Martin, and Adam Morgan, he was able to do so with a straight face. So perhaps acquiring Choo is a distant wish for the Phillies, but considering how well he suits their needs, it is more than worth pursuing. Rather than pay free agent dollars for Nick Swisher, Choo would allow the Phillies to stomach a larger contract for one of the remaining free agent centerfielders, instead of settling for the Coors-fueled Dexter Fowler or pining after the not-actually-available-at-all Peter Bourjos. And as a benefit of waiting out the market, the Phillies may find that prices for the likes of Hamilton or Bourn will sink to a more palatable range, or that previously unconsidered trade possibilities will present themselves. Creativity and patience may trump the war chest this offseason.

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21 comments

  1. Sean

    December 06, 2012 07:21 AM

    I personally am enjoying the quiet offseason if only because it means Amaro hasn’t made some outrageous deal. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for that to happen.

    I have mixed feelings about the Victorino deal in Boston, but I am happy he got a deal. One of my favorite players.

  2. TomG

    December 06, 2012 08:58 AM

    Yeah, I was kinda puzzled by the Nate Schierholtz thing, too. I don’t know why the Phils didn’t make an attempt to retain him and see how he performs for a full season.

    I’d love to get Choo – he’s a good player – but I’d also like to see the Phil retain Worley. We have little idea what he’ll be like. The Braves stuck with Heyward for a third season despite a pretty bad sophomore year. It’s possible Worley’s real talent level is closer to his 2011 season than his injury-riddled 2012 season. It wouldn’t cost us anything to find out.

    We definitely need at least one outfielder, but maybe this is the year to throw Brown out there in right for a full season and see what he can do. Given a real chance, who knows?

    And it looks like M. Young is gonna be our third base solution. I hope Texas picks up most of his salary, otherwise why bother?

  3. hk

    December 06, 2012 09:25 AM

    TomG,

    The Schierholtz thing puzzles me, too. All the Phils had to do was tender him an offer and they would have gone to arbitration or settled before arbitration, probably for $1.5M or so. If nothing else, they should have known to tender him an offer and trade him. It should have been obvious that there was a market for a decent 29 year old OF making ~$1.5M.

    As far as the Young thing is concerned, I say why bother even if Texas pays his entire salary. It is beyond puzzling (mind boggling?) that they are going to trade assets for this 36 year old stiff, who was a brutal defensive 3B when he was 34 years old and that they might pay part of his contract, too. I’m sure Jon Daniels can’t get this deal done soon enough.

  4. James Kerti

    December 06, 2012 09:34 AM

    The Victorino deal doesn’t look too bad to me. He’s still probably a 2-win player for another year or two.

    With big four- and five-year deals being handed out to other free agent center fielders, the real boon of Victorino’s contract is that it’s only for only three years.

    I’d rather overpay a little on the annual figure if it saves me another year or two on the back-end.

  5. Nik

    December 06, 2012 10:03 AM

    This Michael Young trade is gonna happen. If the Phillies pay more than $4Mil OR give up more than Michael Schwimer I’ll be pretty pissed. He’s still probably better than Frandsen however.

  6. hk

    December 06, 2012 10:09 AM

    Jayson Stark is reporting that Young has shown no indication that he’ll waive his 10-5 no trade rights. One can only hope…

    Eric Chavez for $3M / 1 or even Jeff Keppinger for $12M / 3 without giving up any assets seem like much better ways to address 3B than trading assets – even if it is only Schwimer – for Michael Young.

  7. hk

    December 06, 2012 10:17 AM

    I think we have our new CF…Phils take 21 year old CF Ender Inciarte from the Diamondbacks in the Rule V draft.

  8. Nik

    December 06, 2012 10:30 AM

    Ender’s Game (see what I did?) is speed, no power. Impressive OPS last year though for having less power than Juan Pierre.

  9. EricL

    December 06, 2012 10:46 AM

    They could afford to give MiniMart a roster spot for two years. If Martinez can stay I don’t see why Ender can’t. (Not that this is optimal, just that it can certainly be done)

  10. Nik

    December 06, 2012 10:50 AM

    What do we have to lose? If we need the roster space they can always let him go. If not, could be an interesting guy.

  11. hk

    December 06, 2012 10:53 AM

    EricL,

    I think that they went into 2011 thinking their roster was strong enough to bury a utility IF as their 25th man. Coming off an 81-81 season and looking like they may be platooning in a couple of spots, I don’t know that they can afford to keep a PR / late inning defensive replacement on the 25 man roster. Of course, it can’t hurt to draft the guy and use Spring Training to see what they’ve got in the kid.

  12. LTG

    December 06, 2012 11:26 AM

    Nik, you should be pissed if the Phils aren’t getting paid to take Michael Young.

  13. Ryan Sommers

    December 06, 2012 11:53 AM

    I think Nik was talking about Inciarte probably

  14. hk

    December 06, 2012 12:04 PM

    Ryan,

    I think LTG was responding to Nik’s, “…If the Phillies pay more than $4Mil OR give up more than Michael Schwimer I’ll be pretty pissed…” comment.

  15. LTG

    December 06, 2012 12:16 PM

    Yes, what hk said.

    Did RAJ acquire Ben Revere for realz?

  16. LTG

    December 06, 2012 12:25 PM

    I was so close to despairing. Props to RAJ. Now, let’s go get Anibal Sanchez and Nick Swisher!

  17. hk

    December 06, 2012 12:48 PM

    I was so close to despairing. Props to RAJ. Now, let’s go get Anibal Sanchez and Nick Swisher!

    …and avoid Michael Young and we can call it a day.

  18. Phillie697

    December 06, 2012 02:03 PM

    Man I’m literally learning about these news as I read the comments. At first I was gonna ask if Ender Inciarte plays CF like freaking Andrew Jones in his prime, given that he has less power than me, but then next I read we pick up Ben Revere, who does indeed play some good D (still no power tho). Worley and Mays tho? Seems a bit steep to me for a guy who doesn’t get on base enough, but again, not really losing sleep over it, although this probably means I can kiss my Justin Upton dream goodbye.

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