Mets-Phillies Game Thread 5/8/12

The Phillies haven’t won consecutive games in over a week and they haven’t been above .500 since Opening Day. After last night’s crushing loss on Jordany Valdespin‘s three-run ninth-inning home run, the Phillies will try to get back on their winning ways once again tonight. If ever there was a night for it, it is tonight as the Phillies will oppose the struggling 41-year-old Miguel Batista. The veteran right-hander has operated as a swing man in the Mets’ bullpen and will be making his second start of the season tonight. In 13 innings thus far, he has struck out 11 and walked 13, making for hilarious strikeout and walk rates. Batista will be opposed by Joe Blanton, coming off his best start as a Phillie last Thursday in Atlanta. In fact, Blanton is on a bit of a roll as he has not walked a batter in either of his previous two starts while striking out 14 in 16 and one-third innings.




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  1. pedro3131

    May 09, 2012 09:07 AM

    Bastardo last year was 10x better then Qualls has ever been. He was due for a regression, but zips had him still over a full run lower in era for this year. Also Contreras has pitched a lot better then his era would indicate (see his fip, and his babip), and I don’t think many people before the season were saying Qualls was going to pitch better.

  2. Richard

    May 09, 2012 09:11 AM

    Qualls is not better than Bastardo. Maybe Contreras. Papelbon over Madson is a wash.

    Really, there was little reason to believe Bastardo would be as good as he was last year. Little reason to believe Stutes would get his lucky good results.

    It’s not crazy to think the bullpen might have improved, I suppose, except people ignore the fact that the bullpen was pretty good last year (I realize it didn’t accumulate a lot of WAR last year, but the results on the field were very good). Blown saves, of any variety, were rare.

  3. Richard

    May 09, 2012 09:13 AM

    yeah, pedro3131 makes the point I came back to clarify: Bastardo was so good last year, remember historically so, BA-against-wise, that to expect him to repeat that, let alone someone like Qualls, was setting yourself up for disappointment.

  4. LTG

    May 09, 2012 10:22 AM

    I’m with you fellas on the substantive part of this debate. But that is not to say that it was crazy to think otherwise. Especially, since Qualls was just an addition. Really, he only needed to be better than Stutes and KK to improve the ‘pen.

    I’m not convinced that we should trust the DIPS theory on Contreras. His BB-rate is extremely high and his K-rate good but not good enough to overcome the BB-rate. In 2010 he had almost the same K-rate but ~2 fewer BBs per nine. His ERA was 3.34 on a .318 BABIP. What happens now when he walks 2 more per nine? Probably not a 2.63 ERA as the FIP suggests. The results probably can’t remain this bad but how much better will they get? He’s due to give up more fly balls and, so, more home runs and this time it is more likely there will be men on base. I can’t make a definite guess at the ERA that will result. I would need to know more about the relationship between BB-rates and BABIP, especially for different batted ball profiles before I tried to answer that question. Strangely enough, he would be benefited by giving up fewer ground balls, since fly balls turn into outs more often than ground balls.

  5. NickFromGermantown

    May 09, 2012 10:51 AM

    AGH, what kind of a comment is that? You take Rollins’ comment totally out of context.

    Anyway, NOW is when the Phillies fans prove themselves. If the Nationals have a period of sustained success, THAT is when they will prove themselves. Give things time.

  6. pedro3131

    May 09, 2012 08:49 PM

    Why substitute Qualls for someone else? The big change was Qualls (a more or less replacement level reliever for his career) for Madson (a very good reliever). Papelbon is statistically much better then Madson, has always been, and likely will always be, so that’s an improvement, but Qualls isn’t really an improvement on any of the options. Even expecting Bastardo to not be historically good, there were many of us on here arguing that he had the stuff to close, and that we didn’t need to sign a big name reliever, whereas Qualls has definitely pitched better then expected. I guess the bullpen wasn’t supposed to be significantly worse, but it definitely wasn’t supposed to get any better.

    Also, most of Contreras is based off his old stuff before he got hurt. He had really amazing stuff back in the day, and I think a lot of people over value him based off that. It would be great if his fastball and spliter had the bite they did back when he was with the Yankees/White Sox, but I’m not sure if it will ever get back to that point.

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