Chase Utley Most Important Player in MLB

David Schoenfield asked for suggestions of Major League Baseball’s most important players going into the 2012 season. He, along with several who responded, listed some good candidates including Roy Halladay. I was surprised to see one name conspicuously absent, however: Chase Utley.

It’s easy to forget about Utley. He’s not flashy, he doesn’t speak up much at all, and he hasn’t been among the best players in the league in two years. His combined 9.3 fWAR in 2010-11 is barely more than his total in 2009 alone (8.2). He hasn’t played a single inning in Clearwater yet, and his playing time is expected to be reduced overall during the season.

However, I think a few factors, when taken together, make Utley arguably the most important player in baseball. First of all, he does everything: he hits (career .384 wOBA), he runs (64-for-68 stealing bases since 2008), he plays elite defense (MLB-best among second basemen +13.5 UZR/150). Utley was a five-tool player and, when healthy, still is.

Secondly, he plays at a premium position. It has historically been more difficult to find an Utley-caliber player at second base than at almost any other position.

Less than nine percent of the 701 seasons of 6 or more rWAR since 1950 have come from second basemen. Of the 61 instances, Utley is responsible for four of them. When he is his normal, healthy self, he is easily in the top-ten most valuable players in all of baseball. He is one of the few players that a team can ride into post-season contention and, when absent, can miss the playoffs entirely.

Of course, Utley’s knee injury is not one that will go away with time; rather, it is one that will get worse. So it is quite fair to say that Utley’s best days are well behind him and he is realistically a 4-5 win player in 450-500 plate appearances. The Phillies, though, appear ill-equipped to deal with replacing Utley whether in the short- or long-term. Michael Martinez is the front-runner to win the back-up infielder spot on the roster, fresh off of a -0.4 fWAR season last year. Freddy Galvis is next in line, but his bat is barely passable at the Minor League level despite his prestigious defensive abilities. Given the lack of depth here, I find it hard to imagine another team that is as unprepared to replace a star player than the Phillies are with Utley.

If the Detroit Tigers happen to find themselves without Miguel Cabrera, for instance, they will only be missing offense. Sans Utley, the Phillies lose a lot in all facets: hitting, base running, and defense. Further, it is much harder to find a suitable replacement there than at most other positions. Taking all of the above into account, it seems as if Utley is still arguably the most important player in baseball.

twitter.com/DavidHaleTNJ/status/180025021455020032

To quote our own Paul Boye, “prepare the ticker tape.”

Phillies Make Spring Training Cuts

Via MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki:

Right-handers Dave Bush, Austin Hyatt and B.J. Rosenberg and left-hander Pat Misch have been reassigned. Infielders Harold Garcia and Cesar Hernandez, outfielder Tyson Gillies, catcher Sebastian Valle and right-hander J.C. Ramirez have been optioned.

The Phillies also outrighted Garcia, who had knee surgery last week, from the 40-man roster, leaving them with 38 players on the 40-man.

The cuts aren’t fortuitous — as far as spring training cuts go, these are standard. While Bush certainly pitched a bit better than results indicated, his future was always Triple-A filler material. His best shot at making it back to the Majors is in the event of injury to any of the five in the Phillies’ starting rotation. Similarly, the soon-to-be 26-year-old Austin Hyatt will start the year in Lehigh Valley, but depending on his performance could move himself up on the depth chart ahead of Bush. Hyatt has posted a double-digit K/9 with a BB/9 under 3.0 in each of this three years in the Minors.

Despite the Phillies’ outfield being in flux and everyone trying their hardest to lose the left field vacancy, Tyson Gillies was never part of the 2012 equation. The lefty has made only 130 trips to the plate in the past two seasons combined, between Clearwater and Reading. Furthermore, he has never made it above Double-A. Gillies displayed his tremendous speed and athleticism in his two weeks of work and still has a future with the club, but not in the immediate future.

The other cuts shouldn’t be surprising for similar reasons. The one player who, perhaps, benefited most from the cuts is Scott Elarton. The journeyman, who has not played in the Majors since 2008, has a 1.50 ERA with five strikeouts and zero walks in six innings. His performance, along with the presence of Kyle Kendrick, has given the Phillies the impetus to aggressively shop Joe Blanton. While it is just about impossible that Elarton breaks camp in the #5 spot in the Phillies’ rotation, he can move himself up on the depth charts if he continues to perform well before the team breaks camp at the end of the month.

The demotion of Pat Misch leaves the Phillies with six lefties vying for a spot in the bullpen: Dontrelle Willis, Jake Diekman, Raul Valdes, Jeremy Horst, David Purcey, and Joe Savery. Of the six, Valdez and Horst have looked the best while Willis has by far been the most disappointing, allowing eight base runners in one and two-thirds innings.

Finally, left field is still up for grabs. Domonic Brown has looked incompetent defensively despite having a lot of success at the plate. It is looking more and more likely that the wayward prospect will start the year in Triple-A as originally expected, meaning the fifth outfielder spot is up for grabs between Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, and dark horse Lou Montanez. Pierre and Podsednik haven’t been impressive defensively either and neither offers much in the way of offense. Montanez has opened a lot of eyes. However, spring training success has no correlation to regular season success, so it is wise to take Montanez’s 17 spring plate appearances with a huge grain of salt. In the previous four years, Montanez displayed a complete inability to handle Major League pitching with unacceptably bad plate discipline. Despite the surfeit of candidates, left field is looking like a position of deficit going into the 2012 regular season.

Joe Blanton Drawing Interest

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe has some updated information on soon-to-be free agent right-hander Joe Blanton:

The Phillies would love to trade Blanton and insert Kyle Kendrick into the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Major league sources tell me the Phillies are making it clear that they would take as much as $2 million of Blanton’s $8 million deal.

While the Phillies’ desire to trade Blanton isn’t anything new, especially since Kendrick was signed to a two-year, $7.5 million deal during the off-season, we have a better idea of just how much salary relief they are seeking. Cot’s Contracts puts the Phillies at $167 million without factoring in pre-arbitration players. Saving $6 million would put them $17 million under the luxury tax, which is more than enough wiggle room for in-season transactions. That makes one wonder if GM Ruben Amaro has another big trade up his sleeve. At the very least, it gives the team the flexibility to pull off such a move in July if necessary.

Swapping out Blanton with Kendrick does have its downsides. Of the five projection systems listed on FanGraphs, Blanton’s FIP is projected between 3.98 and 4.11. Kendrick is projected between 4.30 and 4.61. To prorate that over 200 innings, that amounts to an 88-91 run range for Blanton and a 96-102 run range for Kendrick. At the most extreme, the difference between the two is roughly 15 runs, or one and a half wins. PECOTA isn’t any sunnier, projecting a 4.29 ERA for Blanton and 4.76 for Kendrick, a difference of 10 runs over 200 innings. Unless one expects Kendrick to post an absurd BABIP, as he has done in the past, there will be a noticeable drop-off in production out of the #5 spot in the rotation.

As tends to be the case in spring training, some dark horse rotation candidates have emerged. Scott Elarton, of the career 5.29 ERA in 1,065 innings, has looked sharp in six exhibition innings with the Phillies, striking out five and walking none. Dave Bush has an ugly spring ERA, but has pitched better than it indicates, having struck out three and walked none in four and one-third innings, inducing plenty of weak contact. Blanton has, to this date, looked as good as anyone as he currently sits with a goose-egg ERA backed up by four strikeouts and one walk in five innings.

If Blanton wasn’t showing signs of good health and if none of the Phillies’ hopefuls (Elarton, Bush) looked capable of competing with Major League hitters, the team wouldn’t be so eager to move Blanton. It is certainly a good situation to be in, as Blanton is an above-average pitcher with good control and an ability to miss bats (2.7 K/BB as a Phillie). As long as he continues to show that his elbow is back to form, interest in Blanton will build as spring training goes on. Per Jon Morosi of FOX Sports:

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Roy Halladay Next to 300?

David Schoenfield asks the question on ESPN’s Sweet Spot blog. Roy Halladay, who turns 35 in May, has finished in the top-five in Cy Young voting in each of the last four seasons, winning 77 games in that span of time (almost 20 per season). In total, Halladay sits at 188 wins, leaving him 112 shy of the milestone. Schoenfield writes:

As legendary as his workout routine is Halladay’s arsenal of pitches — fastball, slider, cutter, changeup and curveball, all of them plus, none of them straight, all thrown with pinpoint accuracy. This is a pitcher at the top of his game. 

All this makes him a great bet to continue dominating as he pitches into his late 30s. Here are some various average win totals and how close they bring Halladay to 300 wins: 

Six years, 18 wins per season: 108 wins, 296 total (through age 40) 
Six years, 16 wins per season: 96 wins, 284 total 
Seven years, 17 wins per season: 119 wins, 307 total (through age 41) 
Seven years, 16 wins per season: 112 wins, 300 total 
Eight years, 15 wins per season: 120 wins, 308 total (through age 42) 
Eight years, 14 wins per season: 112 wins, 300 total 
Nine years, 14 wins per season: 126 wins, 314 total (through age 43) 
Nine years, 13 wins per season: 117 wins (305 total) 

Those all seems like reasonable results for a pitcher who has averaged 19 wins over the past four seasons. I believe Halladay will do it, proving yet again that while dinosaurs may be extinct, the 300-game winner lives on. 

PECOTA projects 17 wins this year for Halladay, and then 95 between 2013-19 (Halladay would be 42 years old in 2019), putting him exactly at 300 wins. The list of pitchers who have won 15 or more games in a season as a 40-year-old is slim — there have only 35 such occurrences in baseball history. 13 of them occurred in the 1990′s or later, with Jamie Moyer as the most recent example in 2008.

As Saberists have pointed out many times over the years, pitcher wins and losses are highly variable due to run support. For example, despite a 3.29 ERA over the last four seasons, Cole Hamels has won only 50 games and has a winning percentage barely above .500. Halladay would be better served pitching for an offensively-potent team like the New York Yankees (perish the thought). It would also help Halladay’s chances if he moved back to the American League after his contract with the Phillies expires in 2014, as he would no longer be taken out of games for the strategic use of a pinch-hitter.

Additionally, Halladay can’t afford to miss starts due to injury, serious or otherwise. PECOTA’s long-term projections have Halladay making at least 28 starts through 2019, which is expecting quite a lot. Jeff Zimmerman’s research on injuries at FanGraphs shows that one more year of age adds one percent to a pitcher’s probability of landing on the DL, and an injury-laden year adds eight percent. In other words, getting injured once makes it more likely that you get injured again, for obvious reasons.

If Halladay does get to 300 wins, it will be by the skin of his teeth at the end of his career. The smart money is still on Halladay coming up short. He is a Hall of Famer irrespective of his career wins total, anyway.

Sam Harris on Statistical Concepts

Author, philosopher, and neuroscientist (what a combo!) Sam Harris appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience yesterday for a few hours of discussion. Towards the end, Harris and Rogan discussed some statistical concepts such as sampling bias, the hot hand fallacy, and probability. As this blog makes heavy use of Sabermetrics and statistical concepts in general, I felt that part of the discussion was quite enlightening.

You can watch the discussion below, or click the link for the transcript. Be warned that there is some strong language (not much), and a very brief discussion of religion, so use your discretion if you are easily offended.

Transcript

Those points apply to baseball as well. There is a lot of sampling bias involved in justifying belief in clutch hitting, for example. The ninth-inning walk-off will always register more strongly in your memory than a ninth-inning ground out that sent the game into extra innings. When people justify calling a player clutch, they rattle off all of his clutch hits, but don’t put it within the context of total chances nor do they consider other factors that may have been at play.

The hot hand fallacy gets some play in baseball, especially when players go on hitting streaks. Jimmy Rollins went 1-for-6 in the first game of what would become a 38-game-hitting streak in 2005-06. If you had asked anyone within the first 13 games if Rollins was dialed in, they most likely would have affirmed. However, Rollins actually put up a lackluster .254/.318/.356 line. Rollins wasn’t any more likely to get a hit then than he was in any other situation at that time.

Rare events certainly drive baseball narratives. The Red Sox slipped out of post-season contention at the end of the regular season last year, and it was blamed post-hoc on the team’s consumption of beer and fried chicken in the clubhouse. Other teams have thrown away their post-season hopes in worse ways than the Red Sox, and it had nothing to do with beer and fried chicken. They went 7-20 (.259) in September, which is bad. But if you swapped their September with June (16-9, .640), the beer-and-chicken narrative goes away. It’s certainly not impossible for a .557 team to lose 20 of 27 games in a given stretch. Some of them happen early, some of them happen late, but it’s only when it happens late do we really pay attention and assign meaning to the occurrence.

Phillippe Aumont Impressive in Win Over Pirates

The Phillies took Thursday afternoon’s affair against the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-4 in ten innings. Bullpen candidate Phillippe Aumont, the prize from Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade, looked sharp in one inning of work, featuring these beauties:

The 6’7″ right-hander posted a 13.4 K/9 in 53.2 innings between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year. Control has always been his issue, as his career Minor League walk rate sits just below 5.0 per nine innings. He has struck out three and walked none in two innings of work, a good sign for the Phillies’ dark horse reliever.

Revisiting the LOOGY Situation

The LOOGY — the left-handed, one out guy — is becoming an increasingly vital role in the modern bullpen. Mangers are relying more and more on lefty specialists to enter the game in high-leverage situations and retire a Brian McCann or a Joey Votto: the opposing team’s crucial left-handed hitter in the middle of the lineup. While the Phillies haven’t been the most disciplined in platoon match-ups in past years, they have utilized LOOGYs: J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre were the most prominent.

Going into Spring Training 2012, the Phillies brought with them a host of lefty relievers vying for that LOOGY spot: Dontrelle Willis, Joe Savery, Jake Diekman, Raul Valdes, David Purcey, Jeremy Horst, and Pat Misch. Through nine and two-thirds innings so far, the septet has a combined ERA of 5.58 with a K/BB of exactly 1:1 (eight strikeouts and eight walks). Valdes has been the only one looking sharp so far, with only one base runner allowed and two strikeouts in his two innings of work.

In Wednesday’s affair with the Houston Astros, Willis struggled with control, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning. After the game, he referred to his performance as “horseshit”. Pat Misch wasn’t much better, allowing four runs on five hits and one walk in two innings. Unfortunately, he didn’t have any colorful words to describe his performance, which consisted of unimpressive slop.

As the Phillies are only a week into spring training, there is no need to be alarmed — pitchers are notoriously slow starters, and the sample sizes are incredibly small, so much so as to be worthless. However, this is a situation worth keeping an eye on for it is one of the few roster battles going on in Clearwater. The successful Phillies teams of the past illustrated how critical a LOOGY can be to a team’s post-season success, and they will be hoping for one of the seven to shine through by the time April rolls around. If that happens, the next step is getting Charlie Manuel to adhere them to a strict platoon basis, a chore in and of itself.

Constructing the Unbeatable Team, Volume 2

In the summer of 2008, my younger brother killed three hours on a bus in Latvia when a friend of his posed to him what I consider to be one of the best sports-related conversation starters I’ve ever heard. Let’s say that you’re tasked with winning every single one of the next 10 World Series–what 25-man roster do you construct to achieve this goal? For years, I wrestled with this question, jotting down potential rosters on bits of scrap paper in class, or on the backs of church bulletins. I’ve been at it so long that my first draft included Chase Utley and Brandon Webb.

Last offseason, I was so bored that I took on this challenge seriously, spending eight hours and more than 5,000 words explaining what 25 players (and seven coaches) I would choose to win the next 10 World Series if my life depended on it. While that team of (at the time) 22 MLB players, two minor leaguers and a NPB player still looks pretty good, the question is worth asking again, 15 months later, particularly because until we start getting meaningful games in, there’s not a ton of interesting things happening in pro baseball.

Here are the rules:

  • Your team can be made up of any 25 people on the planet, playing in MLB, the minors, Japan, college, or whatever. If you think you can teach Claude Giroux to throw an effective splitter, or Kevin Durant to play a good defensive center field, you could take them too.
  • Money is no object. Let’s assume all of these players are free agents and affordable.
  • Injuries and aging are a factor, so if you take Stephen Strasburg and he blows out his elbow, you can’t pick up Jarrod Parker from the free agent list. Originally, the rule was that a player couldn’t be replaced at all, but for the purposes of this argument, if you lose a guy to aging or a long-term injury, you can replace him with a below-replacement-level player. Think Michael Martinez for position players, or Miguel Batista for pitchers.
  • No trades.
  • If you lose, you die.

As a note, I referenced the following repeatedly throughout my research:

If you want more information about any of those players, chances are I got mine from one of those sources. So if my life depended on it, here is the army of mighty men I’d choose for everlasting baseball glory.

Catcher: Buster Posey, San Fracisco Giants (2011: Posey)

A tough decision, but a sound one, I believe. Posey, yes, is coming off a catastrophic knee injury, which makes him a risk. If you’re building a team around a catcher, and can’t replace him if something bad happens to him, perhaps it would be better to pick someone who hasn’t had to have his knee rebuilt. But if you’re worrying about the extreme long term, maybe your catcher doesn’t start 140 games a year behind the plate, particularly if you have a good backup. For a position where solid offense is such a rarity, a guy who can get on base at .350 or better and nail down the running game as Posey can is too good to pass up. What’s more, any catcher is risky–even a relatively young player, such as Carlos Santana, will be 35 by the 2021 World Series. Posey seems like as sure a thing as anyone.

First Base: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (2011: Albert Pujols)

The Angels just bet $240 million that Pujols will be an all-star until 2021, but after a down year (which, for Pujols, means he was only a top-10 player, rather than either the best or second-best hitter in the game), it might be time to switch things up. Hosmer, by the 2021 World Series, will be 32 years old, or the same age Pujols and Ryan Howard are now, so while he’ll be declining some by then, Hosmer should still be close to peak production. The No. 3 overall pick in 2008, Hosmer has been a .300/.400/.500 hitter throughout the minors, with some decent athleticism (11 steals in 3/4 of a season last year) to go with a steadily-improving bat. In 563 plate appearances as a rookie, Hosmer posted an OPS+ of 118, not awesome for a first baseman, but impressive for a 21-year-old rookie at any position. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him as the seventh-best long-term prospect under 25 in December, and the top first baseman. If he’s good enough for Law, he’s good enough for me.

Second Base: Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners (2011: Robinson Cano)

The cupboard is pretty bare at second base this generation, as you can see here. This might come as a surprise, considering that we’re watching the best second baseman since Biggio was in his prime in Philadelphia, and the Red Sox and Yankees, which get all the out-of-town press, are pretty set. But those guys, even Cano and Pedroia, are starting to get older, and much as I’d like to count on Dustin Pedroia to be a 5-win player at age 37, I can’t. Ackley made this team last year as the utility player, and his ability to play first base and outfield if necessary should come in handy. There’s a lot to like about Ackley, but Cano and Pedroia being too old and the likes of Danny Espinosa and Neil Walker not really profiling to be reliable All-Star-level performers makes this an easy choice. Though the temptation to watch Jose Altuve waddle around the infield for 10 years is not inconsequential.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers (2011: Hanley Ramirez)

Three full seasons as a starter, a consistent 30-steal guy, and one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and he’ll be 33 (the same age Jimmy Rollins is now) by the 2021 World Series. Andrus will probably never hit for any power, but with that defense and a .340 career OBP, shortstop is one position where we can afford to skimp on offense. After all, the Rangers made it to the World Series twice with Andrus and a supporting cast nowhere near as good as this one. Of course, in four years or so, odds are Andrus won’t be the best shortstop on the Rangers, but Jurickson Profar isn’t close enough to the majors to hide him (or Rays prospect Hak-Ju Lee) on this roster until he reaches maturity. No matter how cool his name is. One note: If you think Troy Tulowitzki is going to be able to play shortstop at age 37, go ahead and pick him. But if A-Rod and Ripken had to move to third base, he probably will too.

Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: Longoria)

Big right-handed power bat with patience, and one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. Longoria was a six-win player last year despite battling injuries all season, and at 26, stands to continue to produce far into the future. Whether that production continues to the year 2021 is uncertain, but the certainty of Longoria’s production allows us to pick a younger, more untested backup.

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (2011: Mike Stanton)

There may be no better power hitter in the game. Keith Law named him the No. 5 minor league prospect in 2010 (Baseball America was somewhat more bullish, and put him at No. 3), and the No. 3 major leaguer under 25 this season. This is all about the power. Stanton, whatever he wants to call himself, hit 34 home runs last year in 601 plate appearances, and 22 home runs in 396 plate appearances the season before that. If you don’t know how good he is already, you will soon. And he’s only 22.

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates (2011: McCutchen)

Possibly the most underrated player in the game today. Odds are, McCutchen, 25, will hand this spot over at some point during the 10-year run, but if there’s a player with fewer holes in his game today, I’d like to see him. McCutchen had a little bit of a down year last year in terms of batting average, but his OBP and slugging percentage stayed about the same. Having McCutchen in center is a huge luxury. He can run and play defense, but increasingly, center field is turning into a position for players (Ben Revere, Cameron Maybin, Peter Bourjos) who can do only that. McCutchen is also an above-average hitter.

Right Field: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks (2011: Jason Heyward)

Leaving Heyward off this list was the toughest cut. But Upton, Law’s top player under 25, is already a perennial 30-homer, 20-steal guy   who has the potential to .300/.400/.500 his way to superstardom, if he isn’t there already. Heyward probably has a higher ceiling, which is why leaving him off the team is so agonizing. Well, that and I keep looking at this list and talking myself into Heyward being a Hall of Fame lock. Heyward still hasn’t shaken the shoulder issues that turned his 2011 into something that resembled, from a narrative perspective, Cole Hamels‘ 2009. Only with more sweet tea and oppressive heat. But while Heyward’s been playing lawn darts in Atlanta, Upton is already an MVP candidate (and incidentally, the first person younger than me to play in the major leagues), and if you put a gun to my head, I’d probably pick him.

Backup Catcher: Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds (2011: Carlos Santana)

I picked Mesoraco to win NL Rookie of the Year, and he wins out here in a squeaker over Washington’s Wilson Ramos. Mesoraco (who, at 23, is scarcely younger than Posey) broke into the majors briefly at the end of 2012, and with Santana and Brian McCann getting older, Mesoraco is a ready backup with the potential to spell Posey for long stretches if necessary. FanGraphs’ Marc Hulet described him as having “a well-rounded game which includes solid throwing and excellent leadership” with the potential to hit for power as well. Thought about Toronto’s Travis d’Arnaud here, but thinking about him makes me sad that he used to be a Phillie, so I’d rather not. But d’Arnaud would certainly be a solid alternative to Mesoraco or Ramos.

Reserve Outfielder: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2011: Trout)

He’s a freak. He’s the fastest kid alive.

Also, he’s one of the top two or three prospects in the game, a 20-year-old who is already a solid defensive center fielder, a phenomenal baserunner, and a big-time hitter at every level of the minors. He was a risk last year as a 19-year-old AA player, but after his cup of coffee last season, Trout looks like a lock to break camp with the Angels this season. He went third last season in the FanGraphs franchise player draft and 12th in the ESPN franchise player draft. Eventually, the idea is that Trout takes over the center field spot from McCutchen, but until then, he’s valuable as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, even if he never hits a lick. Which he almost certainly will.

Reserve Outfielder/Catcher: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals (2011: Jay Bruce)

Nats manager Davey Johnson says Harper could step into a major league corner outfield role straight out of spring training. He’s been in a battle with Trout for the consensus No. 1 prospect spot for two years now, and I’m sure you know all about him by now. Seriously, who was the last baseball prospect to get this much hype–A-Rod? Griffey? Jackie Robinson? So I guess I’ll overcome my personal feelings and take him over Jaff Decker and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Now about that catcher thing. Harper was a catcher in college, where he won the Golden Spikes Award, but has not played an inning behind the plate as a pro, and likely never will. If I’m managing Harper, however, and I can’t make any roster moves for the next decade, I’d be inclined to have him continue to work out, at least part-time, as a catcher. I think Joe Mauer‘s recent injury history and massive contract will scare teams off from putting big guys with big bats (such as Harper) behind the plate for their entire careers. HOWEVER, that means Harper, Mauer, Jesus Montero, Victor Martinez, Boston’s Ryan Lavarnway, and Minnesota’s Ryan Doumit (in short, guys who can hit but might leave something to be desired defensively) have to move to first base or a corner outfield position, where their bats are less valuable. Certainly I’m not suggesting that it would be wise to risk losing Harper to a Mauer-type injury by keeping him behind the plate full-time, but with a little work, he could be a viable option in an emergency (10 games a year, at most). Because one foul tip to Posey or Mesoraco could have a profound negative effect on this team, it can’t hurt to have another option.

Backup Corner Infielder: Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays (2011: Ryan Zimmerman)

As a 21-year-old rookie, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference rated Lawrie as close to a three-win player in less than 200 plate appearances. If he continues to post an OPS in excess of .950 with speed and decent defense at third, Evan Longoria may never see the field. Even if that’s not the case, he’s still a freak athlete who can help out at second, third, and in the outfield.

Backup Middle Infielder: Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs (2011: Castro)

The good news: he’s on that list of young rookies with high OBPs that’s got Jason Heyward and a bunch of Hall-of-Famers on it. He’s the youngest National League hits leader ever. At age 21, he posted a .307/.341/.432 at a premium position, even if he isn’t the best defensive shortstop ever. He could make a nice offense/defense partnership with Andrus at the position.

The bad news, of course, is that he is alleged to have sexually assaulted a Chicago woman this offseason. Castro maintains his innocence, and since he’s in Cubs camp and hasn’t been charged with anything yet, for the sake of argument let’s assume he is innocent. If not, maybe Lee or Profar gets the call a year early. But for Castro’s part, he’s as good a hitter as you’ll find as an under-25 middle infielder right now.

Utility: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies (2011: Dustin Ackley)

We probably, just to be safe, need another backup infielder. Thought about taking this guy, but he’s probably not major-league ready. The problem, as I’ve said, is that the cupboard is almost completely bare when it comes to young, major-league-ready middle infielders. There’s Ackley, Castro, Andrus, Danny Espinosa…and that’s about it.

I mistakenly characterized the crop of good, major-league-ready young middle infielders as completely bare. That’s not the case. But the second base and shortstop prospects this time around are either 1) Not close to major-league ready 2) too old to be truly reliable as prospects 3) quite possibly no good to begin with. Billy Hamilton, the Reds shortstop prospect, not the 19th-century Phillies Hall of Fame outfielder, is in the first category. He’s not even close to being a can’t-miss prospect. Marc Hulet expresses concern that Hamilton strikes out too much, will probably never hit for power, and might not have the arm to stick at shortstop, and while Keith Law is more bullish on Hamilton as a hitter, he too doubts Hamilton will stick at short.

But with Ackley, Andrus, Castro, and Lawrie ahead of him, Hamilton can hide, Michael Martinez-style, playing in….yeah, you know what? Screw that. I can’t talk myself into Hamilton being major-league ready anytime soon. I’ll take Danny Espinosa. At least we know he can play both second and short and hit for a little bit of power. He doesn’t hit for a high average, but he walks some, got hit by 19 pitches last year, and has some pop…No, you know what? Screw that too. I don’t know if Tulo is even going to be ambulatory in 2021, but he can hit like a first baseman, and, unlike catcher and corner outfield, there aren’t a lot of great middle infield prospects.

Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (2011: Darvish)

I’ve always been immensely high on Darvish. Like most Japanese pitchers, he has great breaking stuff and tons of experience. Unlike most Japanese pitchers, he’s bigger, stronger, unafraid to throw inside, and has a plus fastball. Will he be worth Texas’ nine-figure outlay for him? Probably, though I can’t make any promises. At any rate, I feel as good about Darvish as any of his American or Caribbean contemporaries.

Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (2011: Tim Lincecum)

Due respect to Cole Hamels, David Price, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, CC Sabathia, and the rest of The Sunshine Band, this is the best left-handed pitcher in the game today. Kershaw goes four pitches deep, all of which were rated above average by FanGraphs last year, when he won the Cy Young. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, a killer slider, and a low-70s curveball that I rate as one of the prettiest pitches of this or any generation. Kershaw’s always struck out more than a batter an inning, but as he’s matured (from his half-season as a 20-year-old in 2008 until this, his age-24 season), he’s walked progressively fewer and fewer batters. He was about a 7-win pitcher last season, and it’s probably fair to expect him to stay at that level for, I don’t know…another decade or so?

Starting Pitcher: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (2011: Hernandez)

Another Cy Young winner. Entering his age-26 season, he, like Kershaw, has a Cy Young under his belt. There could be some worry about how his arm holds up, considering how many innings he’s thrown, but he’s a big guy who gets lots of ground balls, and in the hands of a manager who won’t let him throw 117 pitches in a game where he’s given up six runs in 6 1/3 innings, there’s a decent chance he holds up long-term. Apart from that, quality isn’t an issue.

Starting Pitcher: Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: Josh Johnson)

Moore is 22, and the prohibitive favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. Ben Duronio of RotoGraphs predicts Moore will have a better season than fellow Rays lefty David Price. Keith Law makes Moore his No. 3 prospect, behind only Trout and Harper. Baseball America puts Moore below Harper and above Trout. The Rays have already signed him to a long-term extension that runs through 2019, including team option years. They seem confident he can be an ace-level pitcher for the next decade. And so am I.

Starting Pitcher: Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals (2011: David Price)

Top-10 for both Keith Law and Baseball America last year, Miller will be 21 until October, which gives him time to mature into a top-notch starter should one of his colleagues falter or succumb to age. Miller can touch the upper-90s, with a solid curve and changeup. He’s expected to start the year in the minors and work up to the major leagues by the end of the season. All of a sudden, a top-3 of Adam Wainwright, Miller, and Jaime Garcia sounds kind of scary for the Cardinals in about two years. Starting him in the majors might not be ideal, as both Law and Hulet alluded to command issues, but if he lands there now, he can adapt.

Starting Pitcher: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (2011: Cole Hamels)

Arm issues and all, Strasburg was one of only five pitchers (along with Kershaw, Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay) who went in FanGraphs’ Franchise Player Draft. Remember, since we’re overloading on starting pitchers and assuming some of them will become relievers, the minimum acceptable outcome for Strasburg is that he becomes a mediocre middle reliever. The potential reward–that he becomes one of the most dominant power pitchers in the game–is too good to pass up.

You may have noticed that this team carries more than five starting pitchers. This isn’t because I’d plan on using a six-or-seven-man rotation, but because it’s easier to turn a starting pitcher into a reliever than vice-versa. Even Mariano Rivera didn’t cut the mustard as a starter. Even granted the inherent issues with trying to keep one or more of Strasburg or Miller, or whoever, stretched out, loading up on starters gives the hypothetical manager an option in case of injury or ineffectiveness, as well as the potential for a multi-inning reliever, in the vein of David Price in the 2008 playoffs.

Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (2011: Bumgarner)

Bumgarner is a 22-year-old lefty with playoff experience, coming off a 5.5 fWAR season (Baseball Reference was less enthused, giving him only 2.8 WAR), with four pitches to throw at batters and top-notch control (a K/BB ratio north of 4:1 in 2011, finishing sixth in the NL in that category, behind two Cy Young Award winners, a guy who pitches for the Phillies, and two guys who had done both). He’s got kind of a low arm slot, and gets his share of ground balls, but that means righties have an OPS roughly 100 points higher against him than do lefties for his career, which wouldn’t be so bad if most of the league weren’t right-handed. But then again, Bumgarner’s total career OPS against is only .693, so he can deal with it.

Starting Pitcher: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (2011: Drew Storen, RP)

Yes, a guy who’s never pitched a professional regular-season inning. Cole was the first pick in the 2011 draft, is 21 years old, and can touch triple digits if he wants to. He’s Law’s No. 10 prospect, Baseball America’s No. 12 overall prospect, and Hulet’s No. 1 prospect in the Pirates organization, dislodging 2010 No. 2 overall pick Jameson Taillon from that spot. Taillon could have made this spot, as could Danny Hultzen, who went one pick after Cole in this past year’s draft.

One aside about Hultzen: the most exciting baseball game I’ve ever seen was this one, a four-and-a-half hour, 13-inning emotional ducking stool between eventual national champion South Carolina and Hultzen’s Virginia. Hultzen, stricken with the flu, could only go three innings, but faced 10 batters, struck out eight, and allowed only one hit, while Gamecock ace Michael Roth, who holds the second-lowest ERA of any pitcher in College World Series history, went seven innings. Eventually Carolina closer Matt Price worked out of bases-loaded jams in the top of the 10th, 12th, and 13th innings without allowing a run, and the Gamecocks went on to win the game and the series. Anyway, Hultzen, drafted by the Mariners, is viewed as  a very low-risk, low-ceiling prospect, where most experts would be shocked if he becomes anything more or less than a mid-rotation starter. While that kind of sure thing is attractive for a 22-year-old, Cole has a much higher potential.

Cole has constantly been compared to his college teammate Trevor Bauer (who, like Hultzen, was the starting pitcher against South Carolina in an extra-inning walkoff loss that knocked his team out of the College World Series). Bauer is considered to be more major-league ready than Cole, but an unusually high-volume workout regimen and a strange, almost Lincecumian delivery mean that he’s got durability issues, which this team needs from an unproven starter like it needs a punch in the face. Cole, if nothing else, throws really hard, and, even if he falls apart, and has a good slider and changeup. Like Strasburg, if nothing else, he can be a valuable bullpen piece.

Left-Handed Reliever: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (2011: Sale)

If I thought Jonny Venters‘ arm could survive the abuse it took last season, he’d be here. Ditto if I thought Antonio Bastardo was going to live up to the first five months of last season again every year for the next 10. But Sale, in addition to being four years younger than Venters and Tony No-Dad, ain’t bad either. He’s struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings in both of his major league seasons, and works of a mid-90s fastball to a devastating slider, as did the young Brad Lidge. He’s not perfect, but he’ll do.

Right-handed Reliever: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (2011: Neftali Feliz)

He was a catcher four years ago. In 2011, at 23, he struck out 16.1 men per 9 innings.

Relief Ace: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (2011: Daniel Bard)

Leave the Game 162 nonsense out. Kimbrel was the best reliever in the game last year, and was well worth his Rookie of the Year award. Between Kimbrel and Jansen, this team has two right-handed relievers who strike out more than 40 percent of the batters they face. Let’s put that in perspective: last year, Justin Verlander struck out 33 percent of the batters he retired. In fact, this team may not need any late-game defensive replacements. With Sale, Kimbrel, and Jansen, fielders might not be necessary at all.

Manager: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: Maddon)

The best manager in the game. He’s a great man-manager, a builder of chemistry and leader of men, great with the media, funny enough to take the pressure off his players, and, most importantly, unafraid to take risks and try something different. I had a bit in last year’s piece about how good head coaches and managers are either smart or charismatic, and great head coaches and managers are both. Maddon is both.

Pitching Coach: Don Cooper, Chicago White Sox (2011: Mike Maddux)

Ah, and you thought that with the retirement of Dave Duncan and his magic sinker-teaching wand that turns mediocre starters into grounder-producing All-Stars, there wasn’t some mystical pitch-teaching warlock who can salvage the unsalvageable with a single pitch. Well, there is. Cooper, quietly, has turned around the careers of John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, and others with his cutter. Having that in your back pocket could come in hand if Strasburg needs to be turned into a junkballer somewhere down the line.

Bench Coach: Manny Acta, Cleveland Indians (2011: Acta)

Like Maddon, unafraid to take chances or go against conventional wisdom, well-liked by his players, and allergic to the sacrifice bunt.

Hitting Coach: Morgan Ensberg, unattached (2011: Rudy Jaramillo)

I don’t care, as long as it’s someone who will encourage his players to take walks. Ensberg isn’t even coaching, but he seems like a fun dude. Shows you how seriously I take that position. Besides, with Acta and Maddon, the position players are now dealing with three famously nice guys. This will become important when you see who’s coaching third base.

Bullpen Coach: Mick Billmeyer, Philadelphia Phillies (2011: Dave Duncan)

Because he’s good with a pair of binoculars, and I needed to make this post Phillies-related somehow.

Third-base Coach: Ozzie Guillen, Florida Marlins (2011: Tom Foley)

Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.

First-base Coach: Davey Lopes, Los Angeles Dodgers (2011: Lopes)

Baserunning. He turned Rollins, Utley, Victorino, and Werth into one of the most effective basestealing foursomes in history. This team has a lot of untamed speed in McCutchen, Andrus, Lawrie, Trout, and even Harper and Hosmer to a degree. Give them to Davey, and let’s see what happens.

In sum, here’s last year’s team:

Name Position Name Position
Buster Posey C/1B Carlos Santana C
Albert Pujols 1B/OF Robinson Cano 2B
Hanley Ramirez SS Evan Longoria 3B
Dustin Ackley 1B/2B/CF Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Starlin Castro 2B/SS Mike Stanton LF/RF
Andrew McCutchen CF Jason Heyward RF
Jay Bruce OF Mike Trout OF
Yu Darvish RHP Felix Hernandez RHP
Tim Lincecum RHP David Price LHP
Madison Bumgarner LHP Josh Johnson RHP
Cole Hamels LHP Drew Storen RHP
Chris Sale LHP Neftali Feliz RHP
Daniel Bard RHP
Manager Coaching Staff
Joe Maddon Manny Acta Mike Maddux Dave Duncan
Davey Lopes Tom Foley Rudy Jaramillo

And here’s this year’s team. New additions are in italics.

Name Position Name Position
Buster Posey C/1B Devin Mesoraco C
Eric Hosmer 1B Dustin Ackley 2B/1B/OF
Elvis Andrus SS Evan Longoria 3B
Troy Tulowitzki SS Brett Lawrie 3B/2B
Starlin Castro 2B/SS Giancarlo Stanton LF/RF
Andrew McCutchen CF Justin Upton RF
Bryce Harper OF/C Mike Trout OF
Yu Darvish RHP Felix Hernandez RHP
Shelby Miller RHP Clayton Kershaw LHP
Madison Bumgarner LHP Stephen Strasburg RHP
Matt Moore LHP Gerrit Cole RHP
Chris Sale LHP Kenley Jansen RHP
Craig Kimbrel RHP
Manager Coaching Staff
Joe Maddon Manny Acta Don Cooper Mick Billmeyer
Davey Lopes Ozzie Guillen Morgan Ensberg

 

By Request: The Eyeball Test

After Phillies beat writer Bob Brookover wrote an article lampooning the idea that Sabermetrics have application to actual baseball, reader Scott suggested I repost something from last year that showed the unreliability of the human eye.

Click here to play “the eyeballing game”. You’ll be asked to perform some web-based geometric tasks testing the accuracy of your eyes. When you’re done, post your results in the comments below. My results from last year:

  • Parallelogram: 2.8
  • Midpoint: 2.2
  • Bisect angle: 8.4
  • Triangle center: 5.5
  • Circle center: 4.0
  • Right angle: 10.5
  • Convergence: 4.1
  • Average error: 5.36

(I only did one run-through at the time.)

My results from just now:

  • Parallelogram: 1.4, 3.6, 10.8
  • Midpoint: 2.0, 5.1, 4.0
  • Bisect angle: 1.0, 5.3, 1.6
  • Triangle center: 46.2 (misclick), 5.2, 2.7
  • Circle center: 1.0, 2.2, 2.2
  • Right angle: 1.7, 19.0, 6.9
  • Convergence: 7.0, 19.0, 14.4
  • Average error: 7.73

Conclusion: be very skeptical of what my eyes tell you. Be as skeptical of your own eyes.