Constructing the Unbeatable Team, Volume 2

In the summer of 2008, my younger brother killed three hours on a bus in Latvia when a friend of his posed to him what I consider to be one of the best sports-related conversation starters I’ve ever heard. Let’s say that you’re tasked with winning every single one of the next 10 World Series–what 25-man roster do you construct to achieve this goal? For years, I wrestled with this question, jotting down potential rosters on bits of scrap paper in class, or on the backs of church bulletins. I’ve been at it so long that my first draft included Chase Utley and Brandon Webb.

Last offseason, I was so bored that I took on this challenge seriously, spending eight hours and more than 5,000 words explaining what 25 players (and seven coaches) I would choose to win the next 10 World Series if my life depended on it. While that team of (at the time) 22 MLB players, two minor leaguers and a NPB player still looks pretty good, the question is worth asking again, 15 months later, particularly because until we start getting meaningful games in, there’s not a ton of interesting things happening in pro baseball.

Here are the rules:

  • Your team can be made up of any 25 people on the planet, playing in MLB, the minors, Japan, college, or whatever. If you think you can teach Claude Giroux to throw an effective splitter, or Kevin Durant to play a good defensive center field, you could take them too.
  • Money is no object. Let’s assume all of these players are free agents and affordable.
  • Injuries and aging are a factor, so if you take Stephen Strasburg and he blows out his elbow, you can’t pick up Jarrod Parker from the free agent list. Originally, the rule was that a player couldn’t be replaced at all, but for the purposes of this argument, if you lose a guy to aging or a long-term injury, you can replace him with a below-replacement-level player. Think Michael Martinez for position players, or Miguel Batista for pitchers.
  • No trades.
  • If you lose, you die.

As a note, I referenced the following repeatedly throughout my research:

If you want more information about any of those players, chances are I got mine from one of those sources. So if my life depended on it, here is the army of mighty men I’d choose for everlasting baseball glory.

Catcher: Buster Posey, San Fracisco Giants (2011: Posey)

A tough decision, but a sound one, I believe. Posey, yes, is coming off a catastrophic knee injury, which makes him a risk. If you’re building a team around a catcher, and can’t replace him if something bad happens to him, perhaps it would be better to pick someone who hasn’t had to have his knee rebuilt. But if you’re worrying about the extreme long term, maybe your catcher doesn’t start 140 games a year behind the plate, particularly if you have a good backup. For a position where solid offense is such a rarity, a guy who can get on base at .350 or better and nail down the running game as Posey can is too good to pass up. What’s more, any catcher is risky–even a relatively young player, such as Carlos Santana, will be 35 by the 2021 World Series. Posey seems like as sure a thing as anyone.

First Base: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (2011: Albert Pujols)

The Angels just bet $240 million that Pujols will be an all-star until 2021, but after a down year (which, for Pujols, means he was only a top-10 player, rather than either the best or second-best hitter in the game), it might be time to switch things up. Hosmer, by the 2021 World Series, will be 32 years old, or the same age Pujols and Ryan Howard are now, so while he’ll be declining some by then, Hosmer should still be close to peak production. The No. 3 overall pick in 2008, Hosmer has been a .300/.400/.500 hitter throughout the minors, with some decent athleticism (11 steals in 3/4 of a season last year) to go with a steadily-improving bat. In 563 plate appearances as a rookie, Hosmer posted an OPS+ of 118, not awesome for a first baseman, but impressive for a 21-year-old rookie at any position. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him as the seventh-best long-term prospect under 25 in December, and the top first baseman. If he’s good enough for Law, he’s good enough for me.

Second Base: Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners (2011: Robinson Cano)

The cupboard is pretty bare at second base this generation, as you can see here. This might come as a surprise, considering that we’re watching the best second baseman since Biggio was in his prime in Philadelphia, and the Red Sox and Yankees, which get all the out-of-town press, are pretty set. But those guys, even Cano and Pedroia, are starting to get older, and much as I’d like to count on Dustin Pedroia to be a 5-win player at age 37, I can’t. Ackley made this team last year as the utility player, and his ability to play first base and outfield if necessary should come in handy. There’s a lot to like about Ackley, but Cano and Pedroia being too old and the likes of Danny Espinosa and Neil Walker not really profiling to be reliable All-Star-level performers makes this an easy choice. Though the temptation to watch Jose Altuve waddle around the infield for 10 years is not inconsequential.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers (2011: Hanley Ramirez)

Three full seasons as a starter, a consistent 30-steal guy, and one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and he’ll be 33 (the same age Jimmy Rollins is now) by the 2021 World Series. Andrus will probably never hit for any power, but with that defense and a .340 career OBP, shortstop is one position where we can afford to skimp on offense. After all, the Rangers made it to the World Series twice with Andrus and a supporting cast nowhere near as good as this one. Of course, in four years or so, odds are Andrus won’t be the best shortstop on the Rangers, but Jurickson Profar isn’t close enough to the majors to hide him (or Rays prospect Hak-Ju Lee) on this roster until he reaches maturity. No matter how cool his name is. One note: If you think Troy Tulowitzki is going to be able to play shortstop at age 37, go ahead and pick him. But if A-Rod and Ripken had to move to third base, he probably will too.

Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: Longoria)

Big right-handed power bat with patience, and one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. Longoria was a six-win player last year despite battling injuries all season, and at 26, stands to continue to produce far into the future. Whether that production continues to the year 2021 is uncertain, but the certainty of Longoria’s production allows us to pick a younger, more untested backup.

Left Field: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (2011: Mike Stanton)

There may be no better power hitter in the game. Keith Law named him the No. 5 minor league prospect in 2010 (Baseball America was somewhat more bullish, and put him at No. 3), and the No. 3 major leaguer under 25 this season. This is all about the power. Stanton, whatever he wants to call himself, hit 34 home runs last year in 601 plate appearances, and 22 home runs in 396 plate appearances the season before that. If you don’t know how good he is already, you will soon. And he’s only 22.

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates (2011: McCutchen)

Possibly the most underrated player in the game today. Odds are, McCutchen, 25, will hand this spot over at some point during the 10-year run, but if there’s a player with fewer holes in his game today, I’d like to see him. McCutchen had a little bit of a down year last year in terms of batting average, but his OBP and slugging percentage stayed about the same. Having McCutchen in center is a huge luxury. He can run and play defense, but increasingly, center field is turning into a position for players (Ben Revere, Cameron Maybin, Peter Bourjos) who can do only that. McCutchen is also an above-average hitter.

Right Field: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks (2011: Jason Heyward)

Leaving Heyward off this list was the toughest cut. But Upton, Law’s top player under 25, is already a perennial 30-homer, 20-steal guy   who has the potential to .300/.400/.500 his way to superstardom, if he isn’t there already. Heyward probably has a higher ceiling, which is why leaving him off the team is so agonizing. Well, that and I keep looking at this list and talking myself into Heyward being a Hall of Fame lock. Heyward still hasn’t shaken the shoulder issues that turned his 2011 into something that resembled, from a narrative perspective, Cole Hamels‘ 2009. Only with more sweet tea and oppressive heat. But while Heyward’s been playing lawn darts in Atlanta, Upton is already an MVP candidate (and incidentally, the first person younger than me to play in the major leagues), and if you put a gun to my head, I’d probably pick him.

Backup Catcher: Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds (2011: Carlos Santana)

I picked Mesoraco to win NL Rookie of the Year, and he wins out here in a squeaker over Washington’s Wilson Ramos. Mesoraco (who, at 23, is scarcely younger than Posey) broke into the majors briefly at the end of 2012, and with Santana and Brian McCann getting older, Mesoraco is a ready backup with the potential to spell Posey for long stretches if necessary. FanGraphs’ Marc Hulet described him as having “a well-rounded game which includes solid throwing and excellent leadership” with the potential to hit for power as well. Thought about Toronto’s Travis d’Arnaud here, but thinking about him makes me sad that he used to be a Phillie, so I’d rather not. But d’Arnaud would certainly be a solid alternative to Mesoraco or Ramos.

Reserve Outfielder: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2011: Trout)

He’s a freak. He’s the fastest kid alive.

Also, he’s one of the top two or three prospects in the game, a 20-year-old who is already a solid defensive center fielder, a phenomenal baserunner, and a big-time hitter at every level of the minors. He was a risk last year as a 19-year-old AA player, but after his cup of coffee last season, Trout looks like a lock to break camp with the Angels this season. He went third last season in the FanGraphs franchise player draft and 12th in the ESPN franchise player draft. Eventually, the idea is that Trout takes over the center field spot from McCutchen, but until then, he’s valuable as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, even if he never hits a lick. Which he almost certainly will.

Reserve Outfielder/Catcher: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals (2011: Jay Bruce)

Nats manager Davey Johnson says Harper could step into a major league corner outfield role straight out of spring training. He’s been in a battle with Trout for the consensus No. 1 prospect spot for two years now, and I’m sure you know all about him by now. Seriously, who was the last baseball prospect to get this much hype–A-Rod? Griffey? Jackie Robinson? So I guess I’ll overcome my personal feelings and take him over Jaff Decker and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Now about that catcher thing. Harper was a catcher in college, where he won the Golden Spikes Award, but has not played an inning behind the plate as a pro, and likely never will. If I’m managing Harper, however, and I can’t make any roster moves for the next decade, I’d be inclined to have him continue to work out, at least part-time, as a catcher. I think Joe Mauer‘s recent injury history and massive contract will scare teams off from putting big guys with big bats (such as Harper) behind the plate for their entire careers. HOWEVER, that means Harper, Mauer, Jesus Montero, Victor Martinez, Boston’s Ryan Lavarnway, and Minnesota’s Ryan Doumit (in short, guys who can hit but might leave something to be desired defensively) have to move to first base or a corner outfield position, where their bats are less valuable. Certainly I’m not suggesting that it would be wise to risk losing Harper to a Mauer-type injury by keeping him behind the plate full-time, but with a little work, he could be a viable option in an emergency (10 games a year, at most). Because one foul tip to Posey or Mesoraco could have a profound negative effect on this team, it can’t hurt to have another option.

Backup Corner Infielder: Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays (2011: Ryan Zimmerman)

As a 21-year-old rookie, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference rated Lawrie as close to a three-win player in less than 200 plate appearances. If he continues to post an OPS in excess of .950 with speed and decent defense at third, Evan Longoria may never see the field. Even if that’s not the case, he’s still a freak athlete who can help out at second, third, and in the outfield.

Backup Middle Infielder: Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs (2011: Castro)

The good news: he’s on that list of young rookies with high OBPs that’s got Jason Heyward and a bunch of Hall-of-Famers on it. He’s the youngest National League hits leader ever. At age 21, he posted a .307/.341/.432 at a premium position, even if he isn’t the best defensive shortstop ever. He could make a nice offense/defense partnership with Andrus at the position.

The bad news, of course, is that he is alleged to have sexually assaulted a Chicago woman this offseason. Castro maintains his innocence, and since he’s in Cubs camp and hasn’t been charged with anything yet, for the sake of argument let’s assume he is innocent. If not, maybe Lee or Profar gets the call a year early. But for Castro’s part, he’s as good a hitter as you’ll find as an under-25 middle infielder right now.

Utility: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies (2011: Dustin Ackley)

We probably, just to be safe, need another backup infielder. Thought about taking this guy, but he’s probably not major-league ready. The problem, as I’ve said, is that the cupboard is almost completely bare when it comes to young, major-league-ready middle infielders. There’s Ackley, Castro, Andrus, Danny Espinosa…and that’s about it.

I mistakenly characterized the crop of good, major-league-ready young middle infielders as completely bare. That’s not the case. But the second base and shortstop prospects this time around are either 1) Not close to major-league ready 2) too old to be truly reliable as prospects 3) quite possibly no good to begin with. Billy Hamilton, the Reds shortstop prospect, not the 19th-century Phillies Hall of Fame outfielder, is in the first category. He’s not even close to being a can’t-miss prospect. Marc Hulet expresses concern that Hamilton strikes out too much, will probably never hit for power, and might not have the arm to stick at shortstop, and while Keith Law is more bullish on Hamilton as a hitter, he too doubts Hamilton will stick at short.

But with Ackley, Andrus, Castro, and Lawrie ahead of him, Hamilton can hide, Michael Martinez-style, playing in….yeah, you know what? Screw that. I can’t talk myself into Hamilton being major-league ready anytime soon. I’ll take Danny Espinosa. At least we know he can play both second and short and hit for a little bit of power. He doesn’t hit for a high average, but he walks some, got hit by 19 pitches last year, and has some pop…No, you know what? Screw that too. I don’t know if Tulo is even going to be ambulatory in 2021, but he can hit like a first baseman, and, unlike catcher and corner outfield, there aren’t a lot of great middle infield prospects.

Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (2011: Darvish)

I’ve always been immensely high on Darvish. Like most Japanese pitchers, he has great breaking stuff and tons of experience. Unlike most Japanese pitchers, he’s bigger, stronger, unafraid to throw inside, and has a plus fastball. Will he be worth Texas’ nine-figure outlay for him? Probably, though I can’t make any promises. At any rate, I feel as good about Darvish as any of his American or Caribbean contemporaries.

Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (2011: Tim Lincecum)

Due respect to Cole Hamels, David Price, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, CC Sabathia, and the rest of The Sunshine Band, this is the best left-handed pitcher in the game today. Kershaw goes four pitches deep, all of which were rated above average by FanGraphs last year, when he won the Cy Young. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, a killer slider, and a low-70s curveball that I rate as one of the prettiest pitches of this or any generation. Kershaw’s always struck out more than a batter an inning, but as he’s matured (from his half-season as a 20-year-old in 2008 until this, his age-24 season), he’s walked progressively fewer and fewer batters. He was about a 7-win pitcher last season, and it’s probably fair to expect him to stay at that level for, I don’t know…another decade or so?

Starting Pitcher: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (2011: Hernandez)

Another Cy Young winner. Entering his age-26 season, he, like Kershaw, has a Cy Young under his belt. There could be some worry about how his arm holds up, considering how many innings he’s thrown, but he’s a big guy who gets lots of ground balls, and in the hands of a manager who won’t let him throw 117 pitches in a game where he’s given up six runs in 6 1/3 innings, there’s a decent chance he holds up long-term. Apart from that, quality isn’t an issue.

Starting Pitcher: Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: Josh Johnson)

Moore is 22, and the prohibitive favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. Ben Duronio of RotoGraphs predicts Moore will have a better season than fellow Rays lefty David Price. Keith Law makes Moore his No. 3 prospect, behind only Trout and Harper. Baseball America puts Moore below Harper and above Trout. The Rays have already signed him to a long-term extension that runs through 2019, including team option years. They seem confident he can be an ace-level pitcher for the next decade. And so am I.

Starting Pitcher: Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals (2011: David Price)

Top-10 for both Keith Law and Baseball America last year, Miller will be 21 until October, which gives him time to mature into a top-notch starter should one of his colleagues falter or succumb to age. Miller can touch the upper-90s, with a solid curve and changeup. He’s expected to start the year in the minors and work up to the major leagues by the end of the season. All of a sudden, a top-3 of Adam Wainwright, Miller, and Jaime Garcia sounds kind of scary for the Cardinals in about two years. Starting him in the majors might not be ideal, as both Law and Hulet alluded to command issues, but if he lands there now, he can adapt.

Starting Pitcher: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (2011: Cole Hamels)

Arm issues and all, Strasburg was one of only five pitchers (along with Kershaw, Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay) who went in FanGraphs’ Franchise Player Draft. Remember, since we’re overloading on starting pitchers and assuming some of them will become relievers, the minimum acceptable outcome for Strasburg is that he becomes a mediocre middle reliever. The potential reward–that he becomes one of the most dominant power pitchers in the game–is too good to pass up.

You may have noticed that this team carries more than five starting pitchers. This isn’t because I’d plan on using a six-or-seven-man rotation, but because it’s easier to turn a starting pitcher into a reliever than vice-versa. Even Mariano Rivera didn’t cut the mustard as a starter. Even granted the inherent issues with trying to keep one or more of Strasburg or Miller, or whoever, stretched out, loading up on starters gives the hypothetical manager an option in case of injury or ineffectiveness, as well as the potential for a multi-inning reliever, in the vein of David Price in the 2008 playoffs.

Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (2011: Bumgarner)

Bumgarner is a 22-year-old lefty with playoff experience, coming off a 5.5 fWAR season (Baseball Reference was less enthused, giving him only 2.8 WAR), with four pitches to throw at batters and top-notch control (a K/BB ratio north of 4:1 in 2011, finishing sixth in the NL in that category, behind two Cy Young Award winners, a guy who pitches for the Phillies, and two guys who had done both). He’s got kind of a low arm slot, and gets his share of ground balls, but that means righties have an OPS roughly 100 points higher against him than do lefties for his career, which wouldn’t be so bad if most of the league weren’t right-handed. But then again, Bumgarner’s total career OPS against is only .693, so he can deal with it.

Starting Pitcher: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (2011: Drew Storen, RP)

Yes, a guy who’s never pitched a professional regular-season inning. Cole was the first pick in the 2011 draft, is 21 years old, and can touch triple digits if he wants to. He’s Law’s No. 10 prospect, Baseball America’s No. 12 overall prospect, and Hulet’s No. 1 prospect in the Pirates organization, dislodging 2010 No. 2 overall pick Jameson Taillon from that spot. Taillon could have made this spot, as could Danny Hultzen, who went one pick after Cole in this past year’s draft.

One aside about Hultzen: the most exciting baseball game I’ve ever seen was this one, a four-and-a-half hour, 13-inning emotional ducking stool between eventual national champion South Carolina and Hultzen’s Virginia. Hultzen, stricken with the flu, could only go three innings, but faced 10 batters, struck out eight, and allowed only one hit, while Gamecock ace Michael Roth, who holds the second-lowest ERA of any pitcher in College World Series history, went seven innings. Eventually Carolina closer Matt Price worked out of bases-loaded jams in the top of the 10th, 12th, and 13th innings without allowing a run, and the Gamecocks went on to win the game and the series. Anyway, Hultzen, drafted by the Mariners, is viewed as  a very low-risk, low-ceiling prospect, where most experts would be shocked if he becomes anything more or less than a mid-rotation starter. While that kind of sure thing is attractive for a 22-year-old, Cole has a much higher potential.

Cole has constantly been compared to his college teammate Trevor Bauer (who, like Hultzen, was the starting pitcher against South Carolina in an extra-inning walkoff loss that knocked his team out of the College World Series). Bauer is considered to be more major-league ready than Cole, but an unusually high-volume workout regimen and a strange, almost Lincecumian delivery mean that he’s got durability issues, which this team needs from an unproven starter like it needs a punch in the face. Cole, if nothing else, throws really hard, and, even if he falls apart, and has a good slider and changeup. Like Strasburg, if nothing else, he can be a valuable bullpen piece.

Left-Handed Reliever: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (2011: Sale)

If I thought Jonny Venters‘ arm could survive the abuse it took last season, he’d be here. Ditto if I thought Antonio Bastardo was going to live up to the first five months of last season again every year for the next 10. But Sale, in addition to being four years younger than Venters and Tony No-Dad, ain’t bad either. He’s struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings in both of his major league seasons, and works of a mid-90s fastball to a devastating slider, as did the young Brad Lidge. He’s not perfect, but he’ll do.

Right-handed Reliever: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (2011: Neftali Feliz)

He was a catcher four years ago. In 2011, at 23, he struck out 16.1 men per 9 innings.

Relief Ace: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (2011: Daniel Bard)

Leave the Game 162 nonsense out. Kimbrel was the best reliever in the game last year, and was well worth his Rookie of the Year award. Between Kimbrel and Jansen, this team has two right-handed relievers who strike out more than 40 percent of the batters they face. Let’s put that in perspective: last year, Justin Verlander struck out 33 percent of the batters he retired. In fact, this team may not need any late-game defensive replacements. With Sale, Kimbrel, and Jansen, fielders might not be necessary at all.

Manager: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: Maddon)

The best manager in the game. He’s a great man-manager, a builder of chemistry and leader of men, great with the media, funny enough to take the pressure off his players, and, most importantly, unafraid to take risks and try something different. I had a bit in last year’s piece about how good head coaches and managers are either smart or charismatic, and great head coaches and managers are both. Maddon is both.

Pitching Coach: Don Cooper, Chicago White Sox (2011: Mike Maddux)

Ah, and you thought that with the retirement of Dave Duncan and his magic sinker-teaching wand that turns mediocre starters into grounder-producing All-Stars, there wasn’t some mystical pitch-teaching warlock who can salvage the unsalvageable with a single pitch. Well, there is. Cooper, quietly, has turned around the careers of John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, and others with his cutter. Having that in your back pocket could come in hand if Strasburg needs to be turned into a junkballer somewhere down the line.

Bench Coach: Manny Acta, Cleveland Indians (2011: Acta)

Like Maddon, unafraid to take chances or go against conventional wisdom, well-liked by his players, and allergic to the sacrifice bunt.

Hitting Coach: Morgan Ensberg, unattached (2011: Rudy Jaramillo)

I don’t care, as long as it’s someone who will encourage his players to take walks. Ensberg isn’t even coaching, but he seems like a fun dude. Shows you how seriously I take that position. Besides, with Acta and Maddon, the position players are now dealing with three famously nice guys. This will become important when you see who’s coaching third base.

Bullpen Coach: Mick Billmeyer, Philadelphia Phillies (2011: Dave Duncan)

Because he’s good with a pair of binoculars, and I needed to make this post Phillies-related somehow.

Third-base Coach: Ozzie Guillen, Florida Marlins (2011: Tom Foley)

Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.

First-base Coach: Davey Lopes, Los Angeles Dodgers (2011: Lopes)

Baserunning. He turned Rollins, Utley, Victorino, and Werth into one of the most effective basestealing foursomes in history. This team has a lot of untamed speed in McCutchen, Andrus, Lawrie, Trout, and even Harper and Hosmer to a degree. Give them to Davey, and let’s see what happens.

In sum, here’s last year’s team:

Name Position Name Position
Buster Posey C/1B Carlos Santana C
Albert Pujols 1B/OF Robinson Cano 2B
Hanley Ramirez SS Evan Longoria 3B
Dustin Ackley 1B/2B/CF Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Starlin Castro 2B/SS Mike Stanton LF/RF
Andrew McCutchen CF Jason Heyward RF
Jay Bruce OF Mike Trout OF
Yu Darvish RHP Felix Hernandez RHP
Tim Lincecum RHP David Price LHP
Madison Bumgarner LHP Josh Johnson RHP
Cole Hamels LHP Drew Storen RHP
Chris Sale LHP Neftali Feliz RHP
Daniel Bard RHP
Manager Coaching Staff
Joe Maddon Manny Acta Mike Maddux Dave Duncan
Davey Lopes Tom Foley Rudy Jaramillo

And here’s this year’s team. New additions are in italics.

Name Position Name Position
Buster Posey C/1B Devin Mesoraco C
Eric Hosmer 1B Dustin Ackley 2B/1B/OF
Elvis Andrus SS Evan Longoria 3B
Troy Tulowitzki SS Brett Lawrie 3B/2B
Starlin Castro 2B/SS Giancarlo Stanton LF/RF
Andrew McCutchen CF Justin Upton RF
Bryce Harper OF/C Mike Trout OF
Yu Darvish RHP Felix Hernandez RHP
Shelby Miller RHP Clayton Kershaw LHP
Madison Bumgarner LHP Stephen Strasburg RHP
Matt Moore LHP Gerrit Cole RHP
Chris Sale LHP Kenley Jansen RHP
Craig Kimbrel RHP
Manager Coaching Staff
Joe Maddon Manny Acta Don Cooper Mick Billmeyer
Davey Lopes Ozzie Guillen Morgan Ensberg

 

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20 comments

  1. Rob SJ

    March 06, 2012 01:48 PM

    Says something that not one Phillie was chosen (except Billmeyer which I take as a joke). Not sure exactly what it says (team is getting old? just not as good as past years?). Course same can be said of the other two top payroll teams, so maybe the message is that high payroll teams tend to have more mid-late career stars, not super-young players who are likely to still be stars in 10 years. Probably all of the above.

  2. Yo

    March 06, 2012 02:02 PM

    Question is, how many of those listed above will be Yankees, Red Sox or Phils before the 10 years are up?

  3. Joseph

    March 06, 2012 03:56 PM

    Uh, no Matt Kemp? He’s only two years older than McCutchen and he’s proven that he’ll be a threat to go 40-40 for years to come.

  4. Bill Baer

    March 06, 2012 04:10 PM

    I like Kemp as much as anyone, but his 10.0 rWAR season last year was nearly twice his previous career-high. 2011-type seasons are the outlier, not the norm (unless you’re Barry Bonds). That being said, I’d personally take him over McCutchen, but it’s not an open-and-shut case.

  5. Rob SJ

    March 06, 2012 04:35 PM

    I think the “you need to win the WS for 10 years” stipulation makes a 2 year age difference a big deal. In October 2022, Kemp will be 38. Cutch will be 35. Probably enough of an age difference to go for the younger player and plan for the long haul.

  6. Michael Baumann

    March 06, 2012 07:12 PM

    That was it–McCutchen over Kemp because 1) Kemp is older and 2) his 2011 screams one-year fluke to me given his previous track record.

  7. Phillie697

    March 07, 2012 02:26 PM

    My problem with this whole thing is that you seem to pick players who will peak around the end of your 10-year period, whereas I see having to put up with the ramping up of young stars during the beginning of the 10-year period no different than having to put up with the decline of aging stars at the end. This would make Tulo a better choice than Elvis Andrus because Tulo would be THAT much better for at least the first 3 to 4 years of the 10 year. There is no reasonable analysis that you can show me that would make me believe that Eric Hosmer is a better 1B than Albert Pujols RIGHT NOW, and doesn’t right now matter too since we have to win ALL 10 WS titles in your period? And also by looking at that, assuming Kemp’s last year was legit, I would pick him over McCutchen too, since Kemp is better right now.

    This also makes some of the very borderline guys age-wise but very good players right now more valuable, although I don’t know if I’d pick them myself. Guys like Ellsbury, Pedroia, Reyes, Votto, Braun, or Fielder should get some consideration.

    Also, you criminally omitted someone at catcher that *I* would pick before Devin Mesoraco or Wilson Ramos: Matt Wieters. 778 OPS last year, decent power, 5 WAR, by all accounts an excellent catcher, and he hasn’t even turned 26 yet?

  8. Phylan

    March 08, 2012 06:58 AM

    LTG,

    Kind of funny, because my hunch has always been that fangraphs’ WAR overrates Polanco somewhat. They do say “Polanco actually has an under-rated combination of defense and contact-hitting ability that can work on a contending team” which is probably the most that can be said for him, especially considering the injury risk.

    I think you could probably call Phils/Reds/Twins a three-way tie, at least.

  9. Hizouse

    March 08, 2012 05:35 PM

    Fun premise. My initial reactions:
    1. Don’t fool around with any RP. Take 11 SP and pray 7 of them are healthy in 10 years.
    2. You must have 3 C, even if you count Harper. I agree with Phillie697 that Wieters should be one of them.
    3. I know it’s not organized like this exactly, but if you’re going to carry Tulo, he’s your starter now, not Elvis.
    4. Actually, go ahead and start Elvis at 2B. I’d axe Ackley and Lawrie in favor of a C and another SS (Machado?), and assume my excess SS can shift to other positions if necessary.
    5. I think all the non-C backups need to be SS, assuming they can play anywhere. Actually, I need at least 1 spot for Harper or Trout, so

  10. Hizouse

    March 08, 2012 05:40 PM

    whoops, sorry for cutting myself off at the end. I think I’d keep Harper and Trout, leaving me with:
    4 SS (Tulo, Elvis, Castro, Machado)
    3 C (Buster, Wieters, Mesoraco)
    1 1B (Hosmer)
    1 3B (Longoria)
    5 OF (Harper, Trout, Upton, Stanton, McCutch)
    11 SP

    and I think hard about dropping Harper for another SP

  11. Chris

    March 08, 2012 06:32 PM

    FYI – Buster had his ankle repaired, not his knee.

  12. steve

    March 08, 2012 07:39 PM

    Why is Timmy Quinn not on this list. Too old? I’d take his upside over half these guys.

  13. argonbunnies

    March 09, 2012 03:57 AM

    This betting on unproven pitchers is insane! At least one of Darvish/Miller/Cole/Moore will probably be a complete bust. With any of Price, Gonzalez (26), Lincecum, Hamels, Lester, Greinke (27), Verlander or Weaver (28), you’re at least maximizing the odds that you won’t get NOTHING for ten years.

    Clearly this isn’t just about upside, otherwise Hanson and Johnson would be on there despite their injuries. So if we’re going to be at all cautious, I’d take the likelihood that Haren and Sabathia will probably be great for 3 more years, solid for another 3, and poor to gone for 3 more, over the chance that Cole pulls a Kyle Drabek.

  14. Bryan

    March 09, 2012 09:33 AM

    Love the team. Interesting that you had Bard and Feliz last year, but now that they’re trying to add value by becoming starters, they’re gone.

    Anyway, I think your team wins at a .600-.650 clip for most of the 10-year period, which puts them in the playoffs 9 or 10 times. Then they win at the same clip in the playoffs, which gives them about three titles. Such is baseball.

  15. Jarrett

    March 09, 2012 10:04 AM

    You didn’t even mention Matt Wieters as a possibility for starting/backup catcher…? Gold glove winner and potential to platoon between catcher and first later in his career?

  16. Brandon

    March 09, 2012 12:55 PM

    I know I am a Orioles ‘homer’ but not having Matt Wieters as even a backup catcher is comical. I realize we are selecting the cream of the crop, but C’mon people. Anybody who watched the O’s the last few years(i know it’s been hard) has seen that Wieters has NO comparison when it comes to being the best defensive catcher. I mean the guy didn’t have a single pass-ball until August! And combine with his high offensive ceiling? C’mon Man!

  17. Brandon

    March 09, 2012 12:58 PM

    And BTW I’m not saying that Adam Jones deserves to be on the list, but I’d take him over McCutchen right now. He reminds me of a young Eric Davis which anyone who remembers him knows how much talent that man had. We’ll see but my money is on AJ Adam Jones to make this list next year. And I def. don’t want to sound like tooo much of a ‘homer’ but I have to defend my guys. Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado are going to be 10-time All-Stars before their careers are over. Take that to the bank!

  18. Brandon

    March 09, 2012 01:01 PM

    Also I don’t believe anybody else on this list has a website dedicated to them “Chuck-Norris” style like Matt Wieters does. Check it out.. www.mattwietersfacts.com

  19. hk

    March 10, 2012 06:41 AM

    I agree on Wieters, but only a homer could argue for Adam Jones over McCutchen. McCutchen is a year younger and has been better than Jones in each of the last three years.

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