Hamels Kicks Off Farewell Tour with $15 Million Contract

by Michael Baumann on January 17th, 2012
Posted in 2011-12 Compendium, MLB, Offseason, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 104 Comments »

The Phillies have signed LHP Cole Hamels to a one-year, $15 million deal, avoiding a final year of arbitration with one of their aces. In the short term, this is fine. Hamels was among the best pitchers in baseball last year, and $15 million is more or less in line with what he was going to make in arbitration, and at any rate, makes him something of a minor bargain.

This news, however, does warrant jumping off a cliff, because indications look good that one of two things will happen to Hamels: 1) He’ll re-sign with the Phillies next year for one of the richest contracts ever given to a pitcher or 2) He’ll sign with the Yankees for one of the richest contracts ever given to a pitcher. What appears almost impossible now is that he’ll sign for something along the lines of the 5 years and $85 million the Angels gave Jered Weaver last summer, or the 5 years and $77.5 million they gave C.J. Wilson last month.

In the winter of 2008, Sabathia was entering his age-28 season, a left-hander who had posted a career 120 ERA+ over 1,659 1/3 innings. Up to that point, he’d posted a K/BB ratio of 2.66 and accumulated 33 wins above replacement, according to Baseball-Reference. Hamels, in the winter of 2012, will be entering in age-29 season, and if he slides back to his career averages, he’ll have posted a 128 ERA+ and a 3.74 K/BB ratio over a little less than 1,400 innings, good for about 27 WAR in half a season less than Sabathia. When Weaver signed with the Angels in August, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, among others, suggested that Weaver’s deal would make a good starting point for a Hamels extension. Now, after a breakout season, and with another year’s worth of uncertainty resolved, Hamels could easily make half again what Weaver made in overall value. With another season like 2011, when he posted a WHIP under 1 and struck out more than four times as many batters as he walked, Hamels will raise his price to the point where Weaver’s contract will look like Evan Longoria‘s. Even in a strong pitching market, bidding could start at Cliff Lee‘s 6-year, $147.5 million deal and end up looking like Sabathia’s 7-year, $161 million contract from the 2008/09 offseason, adjusted for inflation.

Of course, there’s nothing to be done about this now–the time to act was after 2009, when Hamels’ public perception was at an all-time low, but his peripheral stats remained unchanged, or after 2010, when Hamels was once again the front-line starter who was voted MVP of the World Series at age 24, but before he turned into the kind of molten lava-flinging cartoon superhero he was in 2011.

Locking up top homegrown talent long-term has become almost a reflex action for Major League Baseball’s smarter franchises. The Rays signed Longoria in 2008 to a contract that allows them to pay, on average, less than $4 million per year for one of the game’s best two-way players until the end of the 2016 season. James Shields will cost the Rays an absolute maximum of $44 million between 2008 and 2014, and this offseason, they signed rookie starter Matt Moore to a 5-year, $14 million contract that could run to eight years for $40 million.

The key to those contracts is signing players with great potential early. The longer a team waits to sign a player, the more certainty exists over his value. So a team like the Rays can approach Longoria or Moore before either has established himself as a quality major league player and offer to lock them up to a long-term extension with multiple team options. If Longoria had flamed out, he’d have cost the Rays less than 3/4 of what Ryan Howard will make this year, but instead, the Rays have locked up a perennial all-star third baseman for roughly the same annual salary as Kyle Kendrick. Likewise, Moore, who has thrown only 9 1/3 regular season innings in the majors, is projected to become one of the top left-handed pitchers in the game, comparable to Hamels, David Price, and their like. If he blows out his arm in April and never pitches again, the Rays have lost less than what Cole Hamels will make this year. If he fulfills his potential, they’ve picked up a bargain–an ace lefty for about a fourth, give or take, of his market value.

The Rays, as you know, are characterized by their extreme relative poverty, so their reliance on signing players long-term and early is extreme. The Phillies can afford to be more conservative, but they’ve overshot the mark with Hamels. The advantage to signing young homegrown players long-term is that they can be had for less than what the free market would dictate, and for a term that would end before the decline phase woes that make teams gunshy about thirtysomething free agents like Jayson Werth and Albert Pujols. This is what the Phillies did with Chase Utley before the 2007 season, and what the Cardinals did with Pujols when they extended him in 2004. Those were instances of teams locking up players after they’d become franchise players, but before they demanded to be paid as such.

The Phillies have missed that opportunity with Hamels, and this $15 million deal is evidence of that. As Longoria, Shields, Moore, Utley, Weaver, and Pujols all showed is that young players are willing to sacrifice earning potential for financial security. As their quality becomes evident, their value goes up. Now, there Hamels has no uncertainty for the Phillies to buy out. He knows he’s a star, he knows he can make nine figures over six years if he wants to, and he has no incentive to take a discount for the Phillies to give him long-term security. If they’d tried to sign him a year or two ago–or even five months ago–he might have, and failing to pounce on that opportunity will likely cost the Phillies somewhere on the order of $40 to 60 million, if it doesn’t cost them Hamels himself.

So as far as the one-year arbitration buyout is concerned, that’s fine. Hamels is well worth front-line starter money, and he’s making a little bit less than that, so he represents, as I’ve said, a minor bargain. But when all is said and done, that this contract is only for one year and not for six could very well lead to Hamels playing out the best years of his career in pinstripes of a different color, and that could cause the Phillies’ run of dominance to unravel quite a bit more rapidly than it might have otherwise.

  1. 104 Responses to “Hamels Kicks Off Farewell Tour with $15 Million Contract”

  2. By Mike R on Jan 17, 2012

    Thank you for this article. Once again the worst GM in baseball has shown he has no idea how to run a baseball organization in 2012.

    You think that 125 million dollars he gave to our average 1B would come in handy in signing Hamels long term?

    When is the MSM going to realize that Rube is making this team worse with his shortsighted moves (signing a closer to a 50 mil deal???) and by 2013-2014, we will be a non-contender with a huge payroll?

  3. By JH3 on Jan 17, 2012

    While the Rays’s philosophy of running a baseball team is admirable, you have to remember that it’s not really fair to compare them to our Phils. The Phillies are a big market team now, and they’re going to act like one. Efficiency in contracts is desirable, of course, but the point is that we don’t HAVE to be that efficient. The Phillies have done a good job of increasing revenues over the last 5 years or so, and remember that if it’s not spend on the players, it will be going into the owners’ pockets.

  4. By Phils_Goodman on Jan 17, 2012

    “Longoria, Shields, Moore, Utley, Weaver, and Pujols all showed that young players are willing to sacrifice earning potential for financial security”

    Longoria, Shields, Moore, Utley, Weaver, and Pujols showed that Longoria, Shields, Moore, Utley, Weaver, and Pujols were willing to sacrifice earning potential for financial security. 6 players is not enough to make that kind of generalization.

  5. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    I would not be surprised if the Phils and Hamels have a hand-shake agreement on an extension for beyond 2012 and they are waiting to announce the ~$100M for 2013-2017 portion of the extension later, when it won’t count against this year’s luxury tax limit.

  6. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    JH3,

    Revenues are most likely not the key concern when addressing the GM’s inefficiency, the luxury tax is. If in fact the Phils do not plan to exceed the limit and pay the tax, the inefficiency is going to start biting them in the ass real soon.

  7. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    Mike R,

    Don’t hold your breath. Today, I heard two MSM talking heads commenting about whether there was a need to worry about the Hamels deal, except they were praising the great job RAJ has done. The comment “in Rube we trust” made me want to throw up in my mouth.

    Having said that, I do think the Phils will extend Hamels, just at a price that will further limit the team’s payroll flexibility in 2013 and beyond.

  8. By Mac on Jan 17, 2012

    Ruben got slammed when he signed Howard early, now he gets slammed again. Both the Yanks and Red Sox payrolls are moving toward the CBT, so they won’t have room and even if they do do, they will have to spend $1.50 for every dollar the Phils spend. Maybe Cole wants to go back to the West Coast, we’ll see, maybe the Phils end up with Matt Cain or Timmy…it should be interesting.

  9. By Ryan Sommers on Jan 17, 2012

    Signing Howard to 5/$125 at the start of his age 30 season isn’t signing him “early,” especially not in the context that Mike meant it.

  10. By Paco on Jan 17, 2012

    Hindsight is 20/20, and don’t forget that Hamels has a say in his contract as well. It’s not unreasonable to think that he’s known for a while that he wanted to maximize his future gains at the expense of some job security. It’s not unreasonable, because it’s pretty similar what teams do when they sign contracts with players with potential for longer than one or two years: they maximize future savings at the risk of that player’s production falling off a ledge (which is NOT unusual).

    Saying that the GM whose team just set the franchise record in wins is the worst GM in baseball is a solid WIP-caller move. The 2012 Phillies are not the 1999 Phillies. He can afford to take risks: not to get the best deals for players, but to get the best players, period. It certainly seems like that risk fell through with Howard, but, again, it’s not like the Phillies barely scraped by with 85 wins last year.

  11. By Mac on Jan 17, 2012

    Signing him early meant, prior to his contract being up.

  12. By Mac on Jan 17, 2012

    By average 1st baseman, you mean having more RBIs and HRs than anyone since coming into the league.

  13. By Bill Baer on Jan 17, 2012

    @ Paco

    I don’t agree with people calling him a terrible GM, certainly. I think that’s emotional exaggeration. However, there are quite a few things worthy of criticism and further inspection. I like to think those issues have been examined rationally and impartially here. We try to be the exact opposite of WIP callers. :-P

  14. By Paco on Jan 17, 2012

    I hear you, Bill. I (obviously) much prefer the rational and impartial approach (as I think most of this site’s readers do). I also admit that I’m much more inclined to let things play out to see where the go, and I understand that approach isn’t for everyone. But I also think that it’s important to remember that the Phillies are big enough now to ALSO be able to let things play out to see where they go; if it goes south, they can afford to cut losses, try something new, and STILL have one of the best teams in baseball.

  15. By LTG on Jan 17, 2012

    Is Mac a troll?

  16. By Paul Boye on Jan 17, 2012

    Mac,

    There’s a school of thought that tends to think RBI are just as big a product of – if not more so – the runners on base as they are the hitter. Howard’s hit immediately behind Chase Utley for almost his whole career; that’ll help anyone’s RBI total, especially if you hit extra home runs.

    There’s no denying his home run power, but 2006 and ’07 are buoying his career totals – especially when used in the “since he came into the league” context – and his numbers have been declining for multiple years. He also still cannot hit lefties. He has flaws numerous enough for him to reasonably be considered “average” in everything not related to power, which does provide a couple extra home runs (though at the cost of rising amounts of outs made,too).

  17. By Mac on Jan 17, 2012

    Why, because I’m sticking up for Ruben and Howard…what did I say that isn’t true? I’, a Phils fan.

  18. By Mac on Jan 17, 2012

    So you’re saying Valdez has not earned his keep, that is funny, I guess I am not welcome here so be it….You guys can keep your mutual admiration society.

  19. By Phillie697 on Jan 17, 2012

    Where is Scott G when you need him? Still liking that Papelbon contract, Scott G?

    @JH3/Paco – you don’t HAVE to be efficient and pay only $500 for an iPad. You can spend $5k for an iPad if you really wanted to, especially if you are a billionaire. But I’m pretty sure by any standard of measure you’ll still be considered stupid.

    @Mac – we don’t sign players to contracts by what they HAVE done. We sign players to contracts to what we think they are GOING to do. Based on Howard’s 2011 season, you really think he’s going to STILL lead the league in HRs and RBIs in the next five seasons? If you do think that, then may I interest you in some sub-prime mortgage investment options?

  20. By Phillie697 on Jan 17, 2012

    I’m a Phils fan too, and I want them to WIN. You’re not acting like a Phils fan. You’re acting like Ryan Howard and RAJ groupies.

  21. By Phillie697 on Jan 17, 2012

    @hk – an expensive extension for Hamels may hamper our flexibility in 2013 and beyond, but there is infinitely greater chance that Hamels will earn it with his performance, which is more than I can say about the Ryan Howard contract… I would be fine with Howard’s extension if he is still hitting like it’s 2006, even if it hampers our flexibility.

  22. By SpanishPhil on Jan 17, 2012

    Quite frankly, the post is assuming that Hamels was willing to sign whatever contract RAJ put on the table two years ago – or three, or one, whatever – which might as well not be the case. In fact, I actually believe it was NOT the case. That Hamels wanted to play the market all along. And if that’s he’s will, there’s nothing RAJ, whether he’s the best or worst GM in sports, can do about it.

  23. By felske files on Jan 17, 2012

    Even more important than what will it take to sign Cole Hamels is… what would it take to sign one of the other 2013 free agent pitchers? Can Matt Cain, James Shields, Zach Grienke or Dan Haren be had on a 5 year deal at around $15 million a year? Haren and Shields have team options for ’13, so they might not be available. But does it make sense to go after a cheaper option, rather than Hamels for 7 years and $150-160 million?

  24. By Paco on Jan 17, 2012

    @697

    When I buy an iPad, I have a VERY good idea of what will be in my possession for the next two years or so. When you buy an athlete and pay him to put incredible stresses on his body, the future is much less certain.

    In fact, I think you could certainly liken an iPad to a reliever: 1) for the vast majority of people, paying $500 for an iPad IS overpaying, because you don’t NEED an iPad; and 2) like reliever, that iPad will probably be obsolete, or at least not nearly as effective, in two years.

    But if you have two similar iPads and you have reason to think that one might be more consistent and effective in the long run, then overpaying for that iPad isn’t necessarily a dumb move.

  25. By Phylan on Jan 17, 2012

    The Phillies had like 3 Samsung Galaxy tablets that they won in a raffle and decided to buy the prototype iPad 5 at a 300% markup.

  26. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    @Phillie697,

    I agree. Not only do I expect a Hamels extension, I hope they get one done. I was just commenting on the fact that, if and when they extend him, they will really feel the bite from the Howard extension and the Papelbon over-pay.

  27. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    @Mac,

    Howard is an average 1B because his numbers over the past two seasons say as much. His hitting has been slightly above average while his base-running and defense bring the overall package down to merely being an average player at the position. Is there a possibility that he will produce in his age 32 through 36 seasons like he produced in his age 26 through 29 seasons? Of course, anything is possible. However, it is significantly more likely that the next 5 years for Howard will be more like (or worse than) the last 2 years in which he was an average 1B.

  28. By LTG on Jan 17, 2012

    Actually, I thought the most ludicrous thing Mac said was that “signing early” means “before contract is up.” At best, “before contract is up” is a necessary but not sufficient condition for “signing early.” The stuff about Howard is ambiguous between being not well researched on what an average player is and trolling this site knowing that assertions like that about Howard start a cascade of arguments.

    At any rate, to claim that Howard is an above average player you cannot just cite RBIs and HRs. You must either cite more data (possible) or give reasons why those are sufficient for claiming a player is better than average in overall contribution (I’m dubious). This is what it is to participate in reasoned discussion when lots of arguments have already been hashed out.

  29. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    Paco,

    RAJ inherited the 2008 World Champions with a $98M payroll, a number of very good position players in their primes, an ace who had not yet reached his prime and one of the top farm systems in baseball. He was also given as many blank checks as he needed while everyone other GM’s wallet was nearly sewn shut following the near financial catastrophe that was playing out at the time. In the first three years of his tenure, he increased the team’s payroll by 70% (and pretty much gutted the farm system) while the other 29 MLB teams increased their payrolls by an average of 2.9%.

    Considering what he inherited, what he has spent (especially when compared to what others have spent) and what he has done to the farm system, I would say he’s been below average at best and I fear that he has shortened the team’s window for winning a title to the next 1 or 2 years unless they plan to pay the luxury tax in the coming years.

  30. By DP on Jan 17, 2012

    Agreed that calling RAJ the worst or one of the worst GM’s is hyperbole. Granted, he’s made his far share of mistakes but he’s had some success too. It’s not like Gillick was perfect either. Freddy Garcia comes to mind. Without having done any real research, I’d say RAJ is probably middle of the pack give or take. Of course, money helps cover up mistakes. Also, let’s not forget this team had the best record last year. Granted they didn’t win the title but all you’re really trying to do in the off-season is assemble the best team, make the post-season and hope it works out in the playoffs when as we saw last year, anything can happen.

  31. By nik on Jan 17, 2012

    hk: those other teams also dont come into every season as the odds-on favorites, now do they.

  32. By nik on Jan 17, 2012

    I think some people around here would be happier if the team kept a low payroll, hoarded all the prospects and dumped all of its expensive talent in trades, since those are the marks of the super duper GMs.

  33. By Scott G on Jan 17, 2012

    Phillie,

    I’m right here. I still don’t think it’s an absurd contract. It’s not good, they could have had him or Madson for less. I don’t really think that’s the reason they didn’t re-sign Hamels. IMO, there is 0 chance that RAJ lets Hamels leave this city. If he does, he’ll be crucified (or should be anyway). I like hk’s point of view on that. Just be patient. Btw, what size contract would you have given Papelbon? I guarantee the price you suggest wouldn’t be enough for the Phillies to get him or Madson, or wouldn’t have been enough to make a difference in a potential Hamels deal. Relax.

    Oh yea, since you at the very least feigned an interest in knowing where I’m at, you can follow my criticizing of Mike Pereira and Joe Buck (and soon to be Charlie Manuel) on twitter @_Scott_G

  34. By hk on Jan 17, 2012

    nik: No, but three of those other teams have post-2008 World Series Championship trophies in their trophy cases and, in my opinion, a number of those other teams project to be better than the Phillies in 2013 to 2016. I believe that a better GM, given what RAJ was given, might have (a) already led the Phillies to one or more titles and (b) positioned them better for 2012 abd beyond.

  35. By jauer on Jan 17, 2012

    There is no question in my mind that Mike Pereira is the Antichrist.

  36. By Jeff on Jan 17, 2012

    Quick comparison of two 1B:
    - Player A: .253 BA, 33 HR, 116 RBI
    - Player B: .260 BA, 38 HR, 103 RBI

    Look pretty comparable, right?

    A = Howard in 2011. B = Adam Dunn in 2010.

    Dunn hit .159 in 2011. Granted, Dunn’s collapse was a surprise, but his OBP had dropped each of the previous 2 seasons, as has Howard’s.

    THIS is why (1) HR/RBI are overrated; (2) you pay for future production, not past performance.

  37. By Jeff on Jan 17, 2012

    @jauer: also no question that Joe Buck sits to pee.

  38. By LTG on Jan 17, 2012

    What’s so wrong with Mike Pereira?

  39. By LTG on Jan 17, 2012

    I like being a woman.

  40. By Scott G on Jan 17, 2012

    HRs are not overrated. Adam Dunn is good. Come on man

  41. By LTG on Jan 17, 2012

    Not to mention Jeff’s argument is specious. The Dunn comparison tells us nothing other than that it is possible for any player at any time to crash and burn. Certainly that possibility cannot be factored into contract decisions, even when the team is paying for future production. The argument is as reasonable as Jeff thinks women are.

  42. By Mike R on Jan 17, 2012

    Anyone who brings up RBIs as a measure of how “good” Howard is, should be banned from commenting on intelligent baseball discussions.

  43. By jauer on Jan 17, 2012

    During the fumble review in the Giants Packers game, Joe Buck repeatedly said that the ball was coming loose before the knees were down. He was correct, but he failed to inform the viewing audience (which was one of the largest of all time) that the ankle counts just as much as the knee. The runners ankles were screened on every replay FOX showed, but Buck never once mentioned the possibility that the reviews were inconclusive. It is inexcusable for the play-by-play announcer to not know the rules, but it is understandable given how rare it is that an ankle/knee comparison makes a legitimate difference in a replay.

    However, when Mike Pereira came on the broadcast, things only got worse. Pereira agreed with Buck that the call should be overturned to a fumble, also never mentioning that the ankle counts as much as the knee. He never once said that the reviews could be deemed inconclusive given the fact that you could never see the ballcarrier’s ankles.

    Given the way the runner fell to the ground, the ankles definitely would have touched the ground well before either knee.

    Meanwhile, I am tweeting at Mike Pereira that the reviews are inconclusive and the call should stand. Of course, the call stands, and Pereira does his best Chris Wheeler impersonation by continuing to disagree with the call while failing to mention the runner’s ankles.

    Finally, just before going off the air, Pereira says “well, they may have ruled that the calf may have touched the ground first” without ever explaining that the ankle not only counts as down, but also would touch the ground before the calf.

    I would say that I can’t wait to see him embarrass himself this Sunday again, but since the Giants are still playing but don’t even have to play in the Superdome, I am planning on being too drunk to even function at a replay-official level.

  44. By LTG on Jan 18, 2012

    Well explained, but I worry that that level of intoxication would put you at risk for alcohol poisoning.

  45. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    @Scott G – Like BB said in another post, I would like a do-over on this off-season. If it were up to me, I would have given Hamels his money in August (probably earlier, but I’m confining myself to this year only), which would have precluded me from giving a 4/50M contract to a damn reliever. I would have been more judicious about tendering everyone and their mothers, although I have to admit I don’t think the Kendrick’s contract was THAT bad; the devil you know is often times better than the devil you don’t. Suppose I signed Hamels to 5/100 or 6/120 (I think in Aug. he would have taken 5/100), that would leave me about just enough money to bring back Madson after all the dust have settled and I realized nobody would sign him, even though I would have at the beginning of the off-season thought I had no chance. THIS is what happens when you have your priorities straight and doesn’t jump the gun. You end up with the cake AND get to eat it too, and doesn’t end up paying a damn reliever 4/50M.

  46. By Scott G on Jan 18, 2012

    Just curious – Do you find Papelbon or Howard’s contract worse?

  47. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    Oh, and by giving Hamels his money in Aug., Madson, or more like Boras, would have realized we have no big money to give to Madson and looked elsewhere, and eventually finding that there are no takers. I would have prevented Boras from trying to extract a king’s ransom. Also, by NOT signing Papelbon to 4/50M, JRoll probably wouldn’t feel disrespected by his 3/33M; in fact, he probably would have agreed much earlier knowing that we don’t have big money left.

  48. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    Oh god Howard’s by a mile. Probably 10 miles.

  49. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    Let’s just say this, even though Papelbon is overpaid, he’s still a good reliever. He will out-perform Howard WAR-wise in his 4 years than Howard will in his 5, at less than 1/2 the price.

  50. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    @nik – do you know what would have happened if we did all that you just said? We would have Dom playing in the outfield, Beltre playing at 3B, and Pujols playing at 1B, to go with our Utley/Rollins/Victorino core. Heck, I may have pulled the trigger on Pence as well, or I may not have, or I could have just traded for Seth Smith to platoon with Mayberry and it wouldn’t cost me Cosart AND Singleton. If that’s not your idea of a better team, then you’re crazy.

  51. By Bill Baer on Jan 18, 2012

    @ 697

    You typo’d your name. Want me to fix it?

  52. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    Ooops. Please :)

  53. By hk on Jan 18, 2012

    Phillie697,

    I agree with everything you’ve noted except your “devil you know / devil you don’t” comment. In every year of his career (including last year when Kendrick posted a 3.22 ERA), Kendrick’s FIP and xFIP have been higher than Joel Pineiro’s FIP and xFIP. Therefore, I prefer the devil I don’t know and the nearly $2.6M of savings. As has been stated before, $2.6M is not a lot of spilled milk, but when you add it to the extra $2.5M that they’re paying for a closer, the money starts to become significant. An extra $5M to spend could represent the difference between Ty Wigginton or Laynce Nix and a real hitter for 300 or more PA’s this year.

  54. By Richard on Jan 18, 2012

    ok, for the last time, Beltre was not an option; he rejected an offer from the Phillies, wanting a one-year deal, gambling on a big year he could parlay into a huge deal… which is what happened.

  55. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    @hk,

    I agree, but if I was actually sitting in the GM chair, I may think to myself, I know this guy, he’s a home grown talent, he’s a great team-first player, and he’s a genuinely good guy. What the heck, it’s only 3.5M, not that much money to pay for loyalty.

    Again, like I said, I can’t get worked up over 3.5M :) Speaking of real hitter who can play anywhere.. Since we’re not freaking using Dom anyway, does anyone think we have a chance to trade Dom to the Rays for Zobrist?

  56. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    @Richard,

    His “huge” deal is a 5/80M, which we could more than afford if we didn’t sign Howard to a 5/125M. I rather have Beltre at 5/80M than Howard at 5/125M. I would have said to him, you want a one-year deal? Fine. Here is 10M.

  57. By Rob SJ on Jan 18, 2012

    So the beginning of this thread spent a lot of time discussing how the Phillies should have better handled the Hamels situation. Generally sign him longer term now, or 4 months ago, or 2 years ago. Now granted after the 2009 season had to be the low point to sign him. But if you’re Cole Hamels, what is your incentive to sign a long term contract either in season in 2011 or during this off season? Now we can’t guage his desire to stay here or go, but from a financial standpoint why would he do it? That’s why I’m less optimistic than I have been before – not because I do or don’t trust RAJ, but because when I put myself in Hamels’ shoes, I’m hitting FA and cashing in. Of course there is the risk of injury, but it’s not like he hasn’t made enough in his career already in the event of an unexpected catastrophic injury – he’s not Evan Longoria who had made peanuts and took that deal to secure his future.

  58. By hk on Jan 18, 2012

    RobSJ,

    If the Phils offer him ~$20M per year for the next five or six years, he will have to weigh giving up the potential to make $22M to $24M annually in exchange for the guarantee that he’ll earn $100M+ beginning in 2013 regardless of what happens in 2012.

  59. By Phillie697 on Jan 18, 2012

    @Rob SJ,

    It’s not just a possibility of injuries. It’s also a possibility of 2009 happening all over again. Remember, the BIGGEST contributor to his 2009 season wasn’t his abilities, it was his luck. Who said he won’t have bad luck again? 5/100 in August with one more year of arbitration to go would have looked mighty tempting to anyone.

  60. By Beerathon on Jan 18, 2012

    Thanks for everything Cole. Help lead us to a 2012 WFC2 and then go get your big payday.

  61. By awh on Jan 19, 2012

    Some here have commented that Hamles’ desire carries just as much wieght as the Phillies.

    This is true, and it’s the underlying problem with Bill’s post.

    Amaro has a track record of being viciously against negotiating in public. IMO the Madson negotiations went south because someone leaked the 4/44 number.

    We don’t know what the conversations have been between the Phillies and Hamels/Boggs. All we know are what Boggs has said publicly.

    We don’t know whether the Phillies tried to sign Hamels long-term. They may have made overtures after 2009 and been rejected by the player and his agent. Or, the player/agent may have countered at that time that they were amenable to a long term deal but at a price that the Phillies didn’t view as a discount attractive enough to take the risk.

    So to say not locking up Hamels early is a “mistake” on ownership’s part is really just pure speculation. They may have been trying all along.

    The player has to cooperate too.

  62. By Bill Baer on Jan 19, 2012

    While I stand behind every post on this site, do note that it was Michael Baumann who wrote this article, not me. :)

  63. By Phillie697 on Jan 19, 2012

    @awh,

    This isn’t just to you, but to everyone who feels the same way as you do. I’m sorry, the GM’s JOB is to get results, i.e. sign the players he’s suppose to sign, trade for the players he’s suppose to trade, and extend the players he’s suppose to extend in order to help us win. OF COURSE Hamels’s desire is relevant in this discussion; that’s like saying the sky is blue. If the player is resistant, it is the GM’s JOB to find a way to get it done. Otherwise, wtf, we can hire a damn monkey to be the GM.

    The fact of the matter is, RAJ had an opportunity to extend Hamels for at least the past two years if not longer. He should have heeded the advice that Hamels’s 2009 season was an aberration, and used that perfect opportunity when he had the most leverage to extend him to a team-friendly contract. He did not. He did not extend him in August either, when Jared Weaver signed his extension, which RAJ could have used as a blueprint. Instead, he now has to pay Hamels a boatload of money to re-sign him. No offense, yes, it is ownership’s mistake, even IF they have been trying all along. There is no “try” in “win.”

    When you are the GM of a team whose players salary figures extend into the Yankees-like stratosphere, you don’t get brownie points for trying, because there is NO excuse for NOT getting things done. We’re not the fing Royals or the Pirates.

  64. By Dan K. on Jan 19, 2012

    Hamels’ agent talked about contract negotiations and it sounds as though Hamels wants to play the market. He also said, though, that the Phillies would be Hamels’ first choice and they will be given the opportunity to match offers.

    Also, Phillie, yes it’s his job to do what he can to get what we need… but it isn’t always possible. There are certain players that just won’t do certain things. For example, Zack Greinke. Because of his condition, it’s entirely possible that he wouldn’t play for the Phillies even if they offered him a record-setting contract. If Hamels wants to play the market, probably the only way to talk him out of it would be to overpay him. Now, I’d rather overpay Hamels than, say, Papelbon, but an overpay is still an overpay.

    At what point do you have to say, “the GM did the best he could do and we’ll just have to see what happens in free agency?” At this point it sounds like you’re expecting RAJ to hold Hamels’ mother hostage until he signs an extension, or something.

  65. By Rob SJ on Jan 19, 2012

    Agreed Dan K, we have two sides here that want results. Saying RAJ should just get it done because trying is not enough is no different than Cole saying to his agent that he should get the Phillies to make him an 8 year offer, and if he doesn’t Cole will sign a trained monkey to do the agent’s job. It takes two sides to come to an agreement. It could be that the reason they haven’t extended Cole is that RAJ/Phillies haven’t done enough to make that happen. Or it could be that Cole never wanted to extend beyond his arbitration eligible years. We just don’t know. And thinking that someone should get it done because “it’s his job” is ignoring the fact that there is a skilled person on the other side of that negotiating table who has a job to do as well.

  66. By John M on Jan 19, 2012

    I think a lot of people are making a lot of assumptions here. Maybe Hamels did choose to wait out FA and gamble. Maybe the Phils chose this course of action. Without any real knowledge, I’d say we’re all just guessing at what has happened behind closed doors. I agree with Dan K. that it’s tough to judge Amaro and hire the proverbial monkey 697 wants based on one example. (That being said, I personally don’t like Amaro’s track record, but they have been winning, so…)

    The article itself talks about the players that were locked up early. Seems like a great plan to lock up the Longoria’s and Price’s early. But two things arise in my mind. One, how many World Series’ have the Rays won using that strategy? Or the Angels? Two, what if the cost of waiting is less than the cost of being wrong and locking up several young guys? Specifically, how many guys have seemed like good candidates to be extended, and then fizzled out after their first big contract is signed? And if you do that to several players, like the Rays did, what is the price of being wrong on more than one guy? If Longoria and Moore break down, or don’t pan out in the majors (happens all the time – look at “top prospect” lists from years past), the Rays are done anyway, and don’t have any money left to sign replacements. I haven’t done the research, so I don’t know how this will shake out. (The article cites a cost of “$40 to $50 million” attributed to waiting for Hamels . The costs of signing guys like Moore and Longoria are less, but cumulatively add up.)

    My point is that what if the Phillies did evaluate it this way, and decided since they are a high revenue team, they can afford to wait and pay market price? I doubt they did, but I can’t say for sure that they did not.

    Thanks for the interesting read. I would have loved to have Hamels locked up for 5 more years at a 2009 rate, but it’s too late for that, so I am hoping there is a secret deal in place already!

  67. By MG on Jan 19, 2012

    Its a pretty laughable suggestion that Hamels & his agent would have been open to the possibly let alone actually signed a long-term extension after the ’09 season. Why sign a deal like that when Hamels’ value was at a relative nadir?

    It was probably more realistic after the ’10 season but Amaro went out signed Lee instead. Don’t remember any reports that the Phils approached Hamels with a possible extension but it is a possibility Amaro approach the discussion with Hamels’ agent & it went absolutely no where from the outset.

  68. By MG on Jan 19, 2012

    If the Phils don’t work out a extension deal for Hamels by May, my bet is he hits FA and is gone. Just have to see if Amaro gave Hamels a little more than I thought he would & avoided arbitration as a gesture of good faith to sign an extension after the season starts to deal with the AAV & payroll cap.

  69. By Phillie697 on Jan 20, 2012

    @Dan K/MG,

    Again, we are not the Pirates or the Royals. Your reasoning assumes we can’t afford to pay him whatever it is he might get on the open market. We CAN, or at least we could have, before RAJ squandered all the money away. You are still thinking with the notion that we don’t have the resources to compete with the richest teams. This is why I said RAJ has no excuse, because he doesn’t get that excuse when our freaking payroll is ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY EIGHT MILLION DOLLARS!!!

    Hamels will make 15M this year. Papelbon’s AAV is 12M. If you don’t think 27M a year buys Hamels you are fing crazy (I’m not suggesting we give him 27M/year of course, I’m just saying RAJ had the means to get an extension done, period). If we lose Hamels, it’s because he rather spend 50M on a reliever (not to mention 125M on a has-been 1B). There is no excuse for that.

    Also, MG, maybe Hamels’s agent didn’t want to sign an extension after 2009 based on his 2009 performance. Fair enough. Nobody said RAJ had to say, “well, based on his 2009, he is only worth at best 10M/yr, plus he still has 3 arbitration years left, so I’ll give you 5/40M.” Of course Hamels wouldn’t extend if you low-ball him. Instead, RAJ could have said, “you know what, we still believe in Cole, and to show you that we do, we are willing to sign him to 6/65M (buying out three arbitration years in the process), with a team option at 15M.” If you don’t think Hamels and his agent would have taken 7/80M at the end of 2009, you’re again crazy. Yet at this point, we WISH we could have signed Hamels at 7/80M. Heck, I’d take 7/90M!!! If RAJ was willing to take a gamble on Ryan Howard almost two seasons before his contract was up, why couldn’t he do the same with Hamels?

  70. By hk on Jan 20, 2012

    Phillie697 is spot on. If we think back to the end of 2009, there was a big divide in Phillie-land with Bill Baer leading the Cole supporters against the Cole bashers. At that time, a proactive front office that was versed in advanced statistics should have seen that 2009 Cole was not much different than 2008 Cole and offered to capitalize on his low ERA to offer him a fair long-term deal that he could not refuse. At the time, Cole was set to earn ~$16M in 2010 & 2011 and would still be under the team’s control in 2012 and he was coming off a 3.6 fWAR season that most criticized because his ERA was 4.32. Heck, I’d take $90M for 6 years prior to 2010 and I have to think that Cole and his agent would, too.

  71. By LTG on Jan 20, 2012

    It is exaggeration to call a league average 1B a has-been. He *might* become a has-been, on the condition that his ankle injury inhibits his one major skill (power) and further deteriorates his mobility.

  72. By Phillie697 on Jan 20, 2012

    LTG,

    Howard’s fWAR from 2006-2009: 6.2, 3.7, 3.0, 4.6.

    Howard’s fWAR, 2010 and 2011: 1.4, 1.6.

    Unless you’re telling me that he’s going to somehow return to 2006-2009 Howard, with all of his injuries and declining speed/mobility, then no offense, he’s a has-been. In fact I almost wanted to use the word “crappy” when I was first writing that post, but then I realized that would be too harsh, and I would be unfairly directing my animosity toward his contract to him. But has-been is accurate.

  73. By hk on Jan 20, 2012

    Phillie697,

    There are a lot of questions about the defensive metrics for 1B’s, so at Howard’s position in particular, I think it is best to look at both fWAR and bWAR and maybe use the average of the two. Following are Howard’s bWAR and the average of his bWAR and fWAR from 2006 through 2011:

    2006: 5.80 bWAR / 6.00 average
    2007: 2.60 bWAR / 3.15 average
    2008: 2.80 bWAR / 2.90 average
    2009: 4.40 bWAR / 4.50 average
    2010: 2.00 bWAR / 1.70 average
    2011: 2.70 bWAR / 2.15 average

    bWAR shows him to be the same player in 2011 that he was in 2007 and 2008. The difference may solely be due to the different defensive metrics or it may have something to do with how each site calculates a player’s offensive production relative to the league’s offensive production as clearly run scoring is down since 2008. Regardless, bWAR shows him to be overpaid, but not a “has-been” at this point. The average of bWAR and fWAR shows him to be declining in large part due to injuries and overpaid, but provides some hope if he’s allowed to fully recover from his current injury.

  74. By LTG on Jan 20, 2012

    I should also say I would have accepted “has-been star” rather than “has-been 1B.”

  75. By Phillie697 on Jan 20, 2012

    LTG,

    “Has-been star” works :)

    hk,

    Much of Howard’s devaluation by fWAR is due to his defense and base-running. I know bWAR and fWAR have significant differences in defensive measurements, but how different is the baserunning calculations between fWAR and bWAR? Seems to me there is significant differences there as well. I can’t find for the life of me why the differences exist.

  76. By Lefty on Jan 20, 2012

    “What appears almost impossible now is that he’ll sign for something along the lines of the 5 years and $85 million the Angels gave Jered Weaver”
    After signing Papelbon, who plays what many consider the least valued position on the field to what will likely amount to 5 for 63m, all I have to say is-
    Ya think, MB????

    But I agree with you, this is the farewell tour.

  77. By hk on Jan 20, 2012

    Phillie697,

    The differences in how each site values Howard’s defense and his baserunning are pretty comparable over the past two seasons with the difference in the defensive numbers slightly greater than baserunning differences. The numbers are as follows:

    2011: F -4.8 fielding runs vs. +1 for B-R for a difference of 5.8 runs.
    2011: F -9.0 baserunning runs vs. -4 for B-R for a difference of 5.0 runs.
    2010: F -12.6 fielding runs vs. -6 for B-R for a difference of 6.6 runs.
    2010: F -6.5 baserunning runs vs. -2 for B-R for a difference of 4.5 runs.

    Without much time to review each site’s methodology and delve into the differences, I am comfortable using the average of bWAR and fWAR to settle on 3.85 as the combined WAR for Howard’s last two injury plagued seasons.

  78. By Dan K. on Jan 20, 2012

    @Phillie, you are still ignoring one side of the equation entirely here. It would have been great to sign Cole after 2009. What makes you think RAJ didn’t try it? It would be foolish to think that a GM has access to these stats and that Hamels’ agent doesn’t.

    For all we know, RAJ approached them after 2009 and said exactly what you said, that he had a down year, but he still believes in him and offered him an extension. His agent then could have turned around and said no, based on the fact that Hamels was unlucky.

    Hamels has a unique situation to us. He’s set for life well before he turns 30. So now he has to decide if he would rather play it safe and be set for 5 lives by taking guaranteed money before he reaches FA, or if he wants to be set for 50 lives by gambling that he will be just as, if not more, valuable after this season where he can they play the open market and get top dollar. It would seem to me that he’s taking the “risk” and seeing just how big his pay day can be.

    It’s all good and well to say that we should always buy low and sell high, but the other side needs to agree to the terms as well. Just as it is beneficial for us to buy low sell high, it is the opposite for them. If I was Hamels or his agent and I was approached to sign an extension after 2009, I’d say hell no. I know I’d be worth more than that. Now, I would give the Phillies a discount because I have been a lifelong fan of them, but Cole has no such affiliations. If he decided he wanted top dollar, which I believe he did, then he wouldn’t take a contract like we’ve been talking about. He may have, in fact, asked for 27m/year for all we know. Even for Hamels, I would have been pissed if we gave that to him.

  79. By hk on Jan 20, 2012

    @Dan K.,

    I think you are missing the point. No one is saying the Phils should have tried to buy low. They should have struck then to get Cole at fair market value knowing that it would only cost more to lock him up later and closer to his free agency. It seems as though the Phils at the time were more concerned with his 4.32 ERA than his 3.72 FIP and did not want to extend him. Knowing RAJ’s past history of always getting his man and almost always overpaying to do so, I find it hard to believe that the Phils in 2009 were interested in extending Cole at fair market value.

    It’s easy to say that, if you were Cole, you’d have told them “hell no” if they offered an extension. However, at that time, Hamels had earned ~$7.5M and he was “only” guaranteed another ~$16M combined for the next two seasons (with 2012 remaining as a season in which Cole would be under the Phillies control). Now, while ~$23.5M most likely would have him “set for life” as you state, I find it hard to beleive that anyone (Cole, his agent or you) would have turned down a fair market value offer (maybe ~$70M for 2010 through 2014) at the end of 2009. While Cole might have sold himself short at that time by delaying his free agency by two years, he also would have guaranteed himself an additional ~$54M as protection against blowing out his arm in either 2010 or 2011.

  80. By Phillie697 on Jan 21, 2012

    @Dan K,

    Are you sitting there envisioning Hamels and his agent being stubborn and asking for Pujols money or something? Because otherwise, the “you don’t know what the other side is asking for” excuse is just tiring. At some point that excuse is either a cop-out or out of touch of reality. I do not sit here pretending Hamels to be unreasonable.

    Even people who want to play the market and want to get the best contract they can have a number in their head what that means. The fact of the matter is, that number would have been much lower in Hamels’s head back at the end of 2009 than it would have been at the end of the 2010, which in turn would have been lower than at the end of this past August, which in turn would be lower than what it is at this very moment. Do you somehow disagree with that premise? Because if you do, perhaps we shouldn’t be having this conversation. And if you agree, then exactly what the heck are you arguing about again then? Because basically you’re saying RAJ should have acted earlier, which is exactly what we’ve been ALL saying.

  81. By jauer on Jan 21, 2012

    Can we keep Howard’s yearly comparisons to offense-only? His decline in wOBA is drastic enough to prove the point, and Howard still throws enough balls into left field to render the defense a constant. It’s not as if Amaro considered defense anyway before the absurd extension.

  82. By hk on Jan 21, 2012

    jauer,

    We can keep the Howard comparisons to offense only, but we should do so in the context of run scoring being down throughout baseball. I don’t particularly like OPS, but I do think OPS+ has some value in a situation like this. In the Glory Years, Howard’s average OPS+ was 143. In the injury plagued 2010, his OPS+ was 127, followed by a 125 this past season. By the way, in each of the last two years, his OPS+ was slightly better than his 48 HR 2008 season.

    Significant drop-off? Yes.
    Absurd contract? Of course.
    Has-been? No.

  83. By hk on Jan 21, 2012

    “Even people who want to play the market and want to get the best contract they can have a number in their head what that means.”

    What number do you think was in Howard’s head in April 2010 when RAJ “negotiated” his agent “down” to $125M for 5 years? Did they ask for $30M? I would love to be able to hear that conversation.

  84. By derekcarstairs on Jan 21, 2012

    Because the Phils are an elite team with a lot of money, they remain the team most likely to sign Hamels beyond 2012.

    Under the new CBA, the luxury tax is not so big a concern to teams as it has been heretofore. Even if the Phils were to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2013 by extending Hamels, they just need to get the payroll below $189 million in 2014, 2015, or 2016 to reset the luxury tax level applicable to the Phils back to 17.5%.

  85. By Phillie697 on Jan 21, 2012

    If it’s not so much of a concern, then why are the Yankees and the Red Sox publicly saying they want to be below the luxury tax threshold?

  86. By Phillie697 on Jan 21, 2012

    @hk,

    I think Howard had a number in his head, and when RAJ said, “how about 5/125M?”, Howard was thinking in his head, “omg I just won the fing lottery” while pretending to be calm and shook RAJ’s hand and said in a dull voice, “I think that’s acceptable.”

    Sorry, I don’t agree we should just compare offensive numbers. What RAJ did or didn’t consider when he signed Howard’s extension is irrelevant; if I factored that in, I would be accepting RAJ’s flawed logic as somehow valid. Why do people want to ignore flaws or give people credit where they don’t deserve it? If I ignored the fact that Wilson Valdez can’t hit worth a lick, hey man, he’s a pretty decent player!!! I mean, come on, he won a game PITCHING!!!

  87. By derekcarstairs on Jan 21, 2012

    @Phillie697 – If the Yankees’ payroll does not drop below the salary tax threshold, they will be taxed at 42.5% in 2012 and 50% beginning in 2013. The Yankees want their payroll to drop below the threshold to avoid those high rates. Thereafter, if the Yankees or any other rich team can keep their payroll at around the threshold level, the tax will only be 17.5% if their payroll occasionally exceeds the threshold.

  88. By MG on Jan 22, 2012

    So Hamels would have signed a potential 6 yr/$65M after the ’09 season and foregone 3 potential years of FA where he could earn much larger dollars? Yeah right.

    If you want to pose hypotheticals, at least some grounding in reality with them.

  89. By Phillie697 on Jan 22, 2012

    @MG,

    Let see, 15M for 3 years of FA and 20M for 3 years of arbitration = 65M. And he get that money at the end of the 2009, without worry of injuries. Without worry of ANOTHER year like 2009…. Yep sounds about right. Or if you prefer add 10M, 5M for the 3 years of FA and 5M to the 3 years of arbitration. 6/75M is STILL way cheaper than what we have to give him now. You really think that at the end of 2009 that Hamels thought he was worth more than $15M a year? Hindsight is 20/20, so before you critique, at least have some grounding in reality as well.

  90. By hk on Jan 22, 2012

    @MG,

    Following the 2009 season, Justin Verlander, fresh off an 8.3 fWAR season in which he threw 240 innings with a 3.45 ERA and a 2.80 FIP, signed a 5 year, $80M deal thereby foregoing his final 2 years of arbitration and his first 3 years of free agency. Cole Hamels, on the other hand, was coming off a 3.6 fWAR season, which actually looked worse to non-sabremetric types. In that context, Phillie697′s offer looks a little more realistic. Even if it was $65M for 5 years instead of 6, it would have been a win for the Phils.

  91. By LTG on Jan 22, 2012

    I wish I had such direct access to reality, as MG does.

  92. By Jonny on Jan 23, 2012

    LOL!!! Comparing a position players contract to a relief pitchers contract by using WAR? Seriously though? Papelbon is paid to pitch one inning as needed, for a grand total of 60 some innings played total. Howard will play 1400 innings defensively when healthy plus another 600+ AB’s offensively. I’m not saying either of the two aren’t over paid, just laughing at how people will use WAR. BTW, I don’t like combining bWAR and fWAR for an average, I find fWAR to be superior to bWAR and feel averaging the two is a mistake. I just use fWAR, as UZR is a much more accurate defensive metric to go by imo. On RAJ, I don’t see why the armchair managers commenting are so harsh on the guy myself. He’s doing his best to retain the best players money can buy, for your rooting interest. Even though the Howard contract made me say “hmmm?” it is still DWARFED by the Pujols contract both in money, terms, and shortsightedness (that contract will more than likely be horrible within a few seasons). It makes me wonder if some of you even enjoy the game anymore with ALL the focus on the perceived “bad moves”.”Bad moves” that haven’t prevented the Phillies from making any moves they needed to make mind you. Not yet anyway. As a Phills fan, I’m thankful for RAJ and the smart moves he’s made. Sure not all of them will seem smart in the end, but there aren’t any GM’s that can’t be said for. Ya know besides the ones managing from their armchairs of course.

  93. By hk on Jan 23, 2012

    @Jonny

    “I find fWAR to be superior to bWAR and feel averaging the two is a mistake. I just use fWAR, as UZR is a much more accurate defensive metric to go by imo.”

    Don’t the proponents of UZR admit that it is a questionable metric to use for 1B? I believe this to be the case, but I’m not sure.

    “Comparing a position players contract to a relief pitchers contract by using WAR? Seriously though? Papelbon is paid to pitch one inning as needed, for a grand total of 60 some innings played total. Howard will play 1400 innings defensively when healthy plus another 600+ AB’s offensively. I’m not saying either of the two aren’t over paid, just laughing at how people will use WAR.”

    For what purpose do you use WAR other than to compare players who play different positions?

    “On RAJ, I don’t see why the armchair managers commenting are so harsh on the guy myself. He’s doing his best to retain the best players money can buy, for your rooting interest.”

    If his best is to pay $125M over the next 5 years for a player who has averaged 1.5 fWAR per season over the last two seasons, I’d hate to see what trying his worst would produce.

    “It makes me wonder if some of you even enjoy the game anymore with ALL the focus on the perceived “bad moves”.

    I can only speak for myself and I enjoy the games more than ever as I have become spoiled by the winning.

    ”Bad moves that haven’t prevented the Phillies from making any moves they needed to make mind you. Not yet anyway.”

    The Howard extension may very well have cost the Phils a better, younger (and possibly even cheaper) 1B named Prince Fielder for the next five years. We have to see what terms Prince signs for, but even then, the RAJ supporters will say that you can’t be sure that Prince would have signed here.

  94. By Phillie697 on Jan 23, 2012

    Nothing to add myself, LOL, except that I’ll second everything hk said :)

    And focusing on RAJ’s bad moves NOW is the smart thing to do; waiting until we start sucking before placing blame would be completely useless, since by then it’d be too late. Winners keep winning because they never become complacent, or did you not learn that in high school? I for one would find baseball rather boring if I just “have faith” in everything my team and its GM did.

  95. By Jonny on Jan 25, 2012

    “Don’t the proponents of UZR admit that it is a questionable metric to use for 1B? I believe this to be the case, but I’m not sure.”

    It’s still better than TZ imo. And it’s fine if you haven’t bought into it yet. It’s more accurate across the board I think than TZ.

    “For what purpose do you use WAR other than to compare players who play different positions”

    You were comparing contracts.Maybe to compare players who play the same positions actually? I’d rather compare the war of same position players and their contracts,when you’re comparing contracts anyway. Since every position is on an obviously different pay scale.If you think about comparing closer salaries, that tells you teams will grossly overpay them compared to SP’s. Halladay’s WAR isn’t as valuable as Papelbon’s is. Nearly 4x the WAR doesn’t equal Nearly 4x the dollars per inning. The opposite actually if you divide $ by innings pitched. WAR is only useful for comparing contracts when you compare the same positions. Closers are the luckiest players on the earth actually imo gawd they’re overpaid for the job they have.

    And 697, you said.
    ” And focusing on RAJ’s bad moves NOW is the smart thing to do; waiting until we start sucking before placing blame would be completely useless, since by then it’d be too late. Winners keep winning because they never become complacent, or did you not learn that in high school? I for one would find baseball rather boring if I just “have faith” in everything my team and its GM did.”

    “Placing blame” now is just as useless as placing it later though. You aren’t changing anything now are you? You can be complacent and Ruben and the Phillies wouldn’t know it. You just sound like an armchair manager who is focused on something you’re powerless to change. “placing the blame before it’s too late” Really? Too late for what? Is your opinion going to undo something before it’s too late? No.

    Look, RAJ just isn’t as bad as you guys imply. I think he could use some more help from the SABR crowd myself, but he’s not turning the Phills into the Cubs by a long shot. Look at the Yankees and BoSox with their big salaries. The Phills are as good. With less money spent. It’s good to criticize, but you’re over doing it. You complain about Hamels not being extended but if he had, and Hamels tanked you’d say he was a screw up for extending him. This is your logic. Hindsight is 20/20. Building for now and the future is not.

  96. By Phillie697 on Jan 26, 2012

    If “placing blame” is useless, why are you here? If you are just expecting positive comments without wanting to deal with the negatives, then perhaps this place isn’t for you?

    “You complain about Hamels not being extended but if he had, and Hamels tanked you’d say he was a screw up for extending him. This is your logic. Hindsight is 20/20.”

    Name one time ANYBODY here has ever done that. This is the crowd that kicked and screamed when the Howard extension was signed on DAY ONE. Please, I dare you, name one time we applauded a deal that seemed pretty damn good at the time it was signed, then it turned sour due to unexpected events and we turned against it. I thought you don’t deal in speculations?

  97. By hk on Jan 26, 2012

    Jonny,

    1. I also believe that UZR is more accurate across the board than TZ, so I do prefer fWAR in most instances. However, I am usnure about which one is more accurate at 1B. Therefore, personally, I choose to use the average of the two calculations when assessing 1B’s. To each his own…

    2. To me, the purpose of WAR is to determine the value that a player brought to his team in past season(s) and to possibly use it to project his future value and to use that value calculation to compare players who play different positions. However, even if we agree that this is WAR’s role, knowing a player’s past value and/or projecting his future value in and of itself only tells part of the story. Value relative to pay is also part of the equation. I think WAR plays a big role in enabling us to compare 1B’s to RP’s on the basis of their projected values and their contracts. I also think that this is why we’ve seen some of the more progressive GM’s in the game eschew bidding for Papelbon and Madson and instead deal for the likes of Santos and Bailey to close.

    3. You are right that those who criticize deals before they happen will probably have those criticisms fall on deaf ears, but maybe there’s some value to sites like this making inroads in informing the fanbase and maybe even eventually the mainstream media about some of our GM’s shortcomings. To this point, the MSM and most of the fanbase fawns over every move this guy makes and ignores all of the benefits that he was given upon taking over the team and the fact that it looks as though he is shortening the team’s window to be a legit Series contender.

    4. You say the Phils are as good as the Red Sox and Yankees with less money spent. I counter with the less money spent has significantly more to do with how Gillick left the roster and farm system than with RAJ’s moves. I also counter with look at the Yankees’ projected roster and the commitments to those players in 2013 and 2014 and tell me who is in better position after 2012.

    5. I agree that hindsight is 20/20. However, with more foresight, building for now and the future (or for that matter, the past three seasons) might give the team a better chance at a championship this year and beyond (or the team might have won one of the last three seasons).

  98. By Jonny on Jan 26, 2012

    I’m not expecting only positive comments, and honestly from day one I knew the Howard contract was extremely “player friendly” But you can’t take it back, and how long can you cry about it really? It’s done. Plus they got huge value from the guy early on so there’s that. Maybe the Hamels example I used was a bad one? Maybe it wasn’t? But I was kind of exaggerating to make my point really, so please take it with a grain of salt, which it seems you would anyway. I see many “fans” do no more than complain, and use advanced metrics as a spring board for spewing bile towards GM’s, and this gives everyone a bad taste in their mouths when it comes to advanced metrics really. I want people to embrace it, but it’s tough when it’s used primarily to point out “mistakes” or “bad moves”. Honestly I see it mostly used by people commenting to put down other baseball fans, it’s used to say “your opinion is wrong and sucks because of it.” I see it all the time, and it bugs me. Remember kicking and screaming about a signed contract while spewing stats not only turns folks off to the metrics, but is also useless on many levels. It’s fine to discuss, but kicking and screaming? really? You argue above against RAJ and how he didn’t sign Hamels at a bargain when he could. How do you know he could have? What makes you think that a WS MVP and cy young caliber pitcher would sign away any of his FA years? Is he a dolt? is his agent a dolt? The guy had peripherals that should have him around a 3.00 ERA career but he had some bad luck, and one off season. The fact is you’re bashing RAJ for not doing something he may not have been able to do anyway.
    “We have to see what terms Prince signs for, but even then, the RAJ supporters will say that you can’t be sure that Prince would have signed here.” another fine example. You speak like those who support RAJ are wrong to do so. You act like he’s the enemy. He’s doing a pretty good job with your rooting interest, and by looking around all of baseball that’s the best you can expect really.

  99. By Jonny on Jan 26, 2012

    Ok, now that last post you left me with 5 points hk. On the money. Just don’t forget that Gillick is still here giving much advice to RAJ as well. I’m not lashing at you, I’m lashing at negativity, that’s all. I think advanced metrics will have a huge roll in the future of baseball (love the moves by the new Astro mgmt). I just think it’s time to use it in a more positive way. There are fans who may never wish to grasp it, some who will never be able to grasp it. I don’t wish to demean them, I want to cheer side by side with them as fellow fans. I’d just like to see more effort to show good moves through metrics and more of an effort to educate, rather than demean those who don’t quite get the meaning behind the numbers. You don’t need to be a mathematical genius to know what the calculations mean and I think the numbers will one day be as mainstream as era and RBI totals, i hope anyway. E-handshake?

  100. By hk on Jan 26, 2012

    Jonny,

    I am e-handshaking you as I type and I want to cheer side-by-side with you. However, it is my fear that we are going to be cheering side-by-side for a declining team sooner rather than later and some time in 2013 or 2014, we’re going to wonder what happened to what looked like it could be a 10 or 12 year run as a legit contender year-in and year-out.

    By the way, I don’t always complain. I think that the Thome and Willis signings were great (if Charlie uses Dontrelle properly) and I will like the Valdez trade as long as Michael Martinez is not on the 25 man roster. I also won’t complain about the Papelbon signing if the team proves that it is willing to exceed the luxury tax threshhold this year and beyond.

  101. By Phillie697 on Jan 26, 2012

    @Jonny,

    Yes it does suck, those who use advanced metrics to bash other fans. That’s not what happens here, and Bill has addressed this topic on his blog numerous times. To come here and ASSUME people here do the same thing is JUST as bad as those who would use advanced metrics to call other people stupid. You just inadvertently advanced the same behavior you profess to hate.

    As for, AGAIN, the argument that “how do you know RAJ could have”… I’ve commented on this so many times I feel like I’m beating a dead horse… But a GM who CAN’T somehow make the shrewd moves time and time again, no offense, IS the very definition of a BAD GM. You and I can disagree whether RAJ has gotten to that point yet, sure, but please, don’t use the “how do you know RAJ could have” argument again, because just knowing that he HASN’T is evidence enough.

    If RAJ makes a positive move, don’t worry, we will all give him praise. You don’t have to go very far back at all to see evidence of this. Me, and most frequent commentors here, gave RAJ kudos for the contract he signed JRoll to. But of course, you don’t remember that because people tend to only remember the negatives (again, you are advancing behavior you profess to hate). Unfortunately, that was not NEARLY enough, and his off-season thus far is still a significant net negative.

  102. By Jonny on Jan 26, 2012

    HK, LOL.. I hope you’re wrong about the decline, it won’t get me to stop cheering, and i know there’s nothing i can really do about it. Do you expect Charlie to use Dontrelle properly btw? I don’t. Not after seeing the obvious misuse of Romero, over and over again. I hope his eyes may have been opened to the true meaning of Loogy.

    697, I read your posts, you’re a rude dude and like to belittle players, call names, and you belittle their fans when you do that. I think you’re calling RAJ a bad GM right now too, which is unfair. And because he didn’t sign Hamels doesn’t make him a bad GM, as i said, he may not have had a chance with a guy who was an MVP/ Cy young/ AS in his second season. He may have tried for all we know and Hamels told him he wants 22 M per for 8 years. You just don’t know. You beat your “dead horse” and claim a “good GM” would have had him locked up. Everyone else will know that they don’t know what happens behind closed doors while you pretend to know. This is why you still beat your dead horse, because your “horse” is unreasonable at best. I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on the quality of the Phills GM here. You’re probably used to that though.

  103. By Jonny on Jan 26, 2012

    “I also won’t complain about the Papelbon signing if the team proves that it is willing to exceed the luxury tax threshhold this year and beyond.”

    If they do find themselves needing offense by the TDL and don’t make a move due to the Luxury tax, I’ll be complaining too. Wayyy too much for relief imo. But I won’t complain yet.

  104. By hk on Jan 26, 2012

    Jonny,

    I’ll continue to root as well. I been doing so since 1971, so there’s nothing that RAJ could do that would make me stop.

  105. By Phillie697 on Jan 26, 2012

    @Jonny,

    I do criticize players and teams yes, that I admit. And if your comeback for that is their fans can’t take it, I can sleep at nights knowing that. If I worry about that, then I shouldn’t criticize ANYBODY, because every player and team has fans.

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