Rounding Out the Roster

by Bill Baer on November 29th, 2011
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 75 Comments »

By the look of things, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. could be done adding to the roster for a while. The Winter Meetings are on the horizon, but the Phillies have few spots left to fill and will be closely monitoring the shortstop market as their primary focus. Jimmy Rollins is expected to seek a five-year deal, something that should and probably will make the Phillies apprehensive.

How best to round out the roster? Let’s take a look at what a realistic roster, at the present time, would look like.

Infield (8):

Outfield (5):

Starting Rotation (5):

Bullpen (7):

Let’s start with the infield. Obviously, Howard will start the year on the DL. Additionally, Jim Thome isn’t going to be able to play everyday or even semi-regularly as he hasn’t played more than 20 innings in the field since leaving the Phillies after the 2005 season. Thome hits right-handed pitching significantly better, so a platoon is clearly a necessity at first base. Wigginton, recently acquired, does not have much of a platoon split but does hit left-handers slightly better. A third option could be John Mayberry, Jr., who crushed lefties in his first dose of semi-regular playing time last season.

The most logical way to fill the void at first base appears to be giving Thome two or three starts a week (against right-handed pitching only) with the remaining starts going to Wigginton and Mayberry. As the Wigginton signing is a direct response to Howard’s Achilles injury, that is the likely role for the former Baltimore Oriole; however, were it up to me, I would let Mayberry get the majority of at-bats against southpaws at first base. It remains to be seen exactly how Charlie Manuel will split up the playing time, but Wigginton’s bat profiles better with less playing time at first base.

Second base isn’t too hard to figure out; one need only search for the man with the L.A. Looks hair gel. In the past, Manuel promised to give Utley time off during the season, but it did not happen on a regular basis. After returning to the lineup on May 23 last year, Utley started 100 of the final 116 games (86 percent). I’d like to see that change in 2012, especially since Placido Polanco can slide from third to second and Wigginton can take over at the hot corner. This would be particularly useful against a tough lefty.

As mentioned, Polanco will be found at third base. After a great April (.972 OPS), Polanco tanked, posting a depressing .591 OPS the rest of the way. Although he has already more than paid for his three-year, $18 million contract already, he has shown signs of aging and decline. He set career-lows in isolated power (.062), batting average (.277), and wOBA (.304) in 2011. While Wigginton won’t provide much of an upgrade (especially when factoring in defense), it would be helpful to Polanco’s long-term durability if he were to be given a day off every week.

The question on everybody’s mind right now is “Who will be the Phillies’ shortstop in 2012?” Rollins is seeking a five-year deal and it is very hard to see the Phillies doling out such a contract to a 33-year-old with a recent injury history. Outside of Rollins and Jose Reyes, the shortstop market is very thin, so the most likely scenarios involve the Phillies bringing Rollins back, relying on Wilson Valdez, putting all their eggs in the basket of Freddy Galvis (very unlikely), or signing a free agent (such as Rafael Furcal or Alex Gonzalez) to a team-friendly one- or two-year deal.

Let’s say the Phillies are unable to bring back Rollins and Reyes gets his mega-deal somewhere else. I would be content with the Phillies moving on with a player like Gonzalez, who plays above-average defense and hits just well enough to be average at his position (NL average wOBA for shortstops last year was .309; Gonzalez’s career average is .296). Furcal is better all-around, but also riskier as he has spent considerable time on the disabled list during the past two seasons (58 days in 2010; 69 days in 2011). In the past, I’ve pointed out that an elite team like the Phillies should aim to reduce variance as much as possible, so Gonzalez fits ever so slightly better than Furcal, and he will be cheaper as well (most likely). Rumors have Furcal seeking a multi-year deal, and the shortstop market may just be barren enough that a team is desperate enough to agree to such a deal.

The return of Rollins will significantly affect how the Phillies fill out the rest of the roster. If they are not on the hook paying him eight figures in 2012, they will have more payroll space to patch up other areas and even sign Hamels to a contract extension. For instance, the Phillies could sign Michael Cuddyer (assuming he will be available at that point), or go after a left-handed outfielder such as Johnny Damon or David DeJesus. Perhaps the extra payroll flexibility allows Amaro to bring in another reliever as well.

The outfield is more or less set. Victorino and Pence will be found in center and right field, respectively. Left field can be filled a number of ways in the absence of Raul Ibanez. The Phillies have three immediate candidates for the position in Mayberry, Francisco, and Brown. Previously, however, Amaro stated that he wanted Brown to get another full season in Triple-A, so that leaves the Phillies with two right-handers. As mentioned, depending on exactly where the Phillies stand with respect to their payroll, a lefty could be brought in, and there are a swath of lefty outfielders available: the previously mentioned Damon and DeJesus, as well as Ibanez, Laynce Nix, Jason Kubel, and Kosuke Fukudome, among others.

Personally, I would immediately rule out Ibanez, Nix, and Fukudome. Damon seems like a great fit. Corey Seidman went over the pros and cons at Phillies Nation recently, writing:

Damon would also bring some speed, which can’t be said of any of the other impact leftfielders on the Phils’ radar. Damon is the only one of the bunch who could be penciled into the two-hole just as well as the six-hole.

[...]

If Damon can be had on a one-year, $4.25-4.5 million deal, he’s pretty much a no-brainer. Signing Damon would give the Phils three solid depth bats – Damon, Ty Wigginton, Jim Thome – for less than the cost of one year of Michael Cuddyer.

DeJesus is the best of the bunch when it comes to defense. Like Damon, he is coming off of a career-worst season offensively (his first season outside of Kansas City). In a typical year, DeJesus hits close to .300 with above-average on-base skills, so he would be an asset hitting at the top of the lineup behind Victorino. Kubel is your typical mediocre left fielder with occasional power. Although the Phillies ranked seventh in the league in slugging percentage last year, they were nearly as unimpressive in the on-base department, and given the lack of diversity in the lineup, Damon and DeJesus seem like much better fits.

Moving on… the pitching is, of course, the easiest part of this equation. The starting rotation is more or less set in stone with Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, and Blanton. In the last year of his three-year contract, Blanton (earning $8.5 million) could be used as trade fodder during the summer if he shows improvement and good health in the first three or four months. Other than that, there is nothing exciting going on with the rotation, aside from the inevitability of a Hamels contract extension.

The bullpen may see one more outsider brought in, but any remaining gaps will be filled internally and shouldn’t be the cause of heated debate. Kendrick is an interesting case as he is arbitration-eligible for the second year. The Phillies paid him $2.45 million to avoid arbitration last year. MLB Trade Rumors projects Kendrick at $3.2 million this year, so the Phillies have the option of simply releasing him. Although he posted unexpectedly good results last year (3.22 ERA), his performance leaves a lot to be desired and doesn’t project to be anything better than a replacement-level pitcher. Such an arm, of course, would not be worth upwards of $3 million.

To recap, these are the important story lines between now and spring training:

  • First base sans Howard (Thome, Wigginton, Mayberry)
  • Shortstop with or without Rollins
  • Left field, whether it is filled from within or externally
  • Extending Cole Hamels

At the moment, the Phillies have roughly $125 million committed to 13 players. There are five potential arbitration cases (Hamels, Pence, Kendrick, Valdez, Francisco) and a handful of players earning at or slightly more than the Major League minimum (Mayberry, Herndon, Bastardo, Worley, Stutes, Schwimer). MLB Trade Rumors projects the five arbitration-eligibles to earn a combined $31 million. Taken all together, the Phillies are at about $160 million, just barely under last year’s $166 million Opening Day payroll. The luxury tax has been set at $178 million, which gives the Phillies under $20 million of wiggle room. Amaro will certainly have to perform some financial gymnastics to address the final questions, which makes the next three months all the more intriguing.

  1. 75 Responses to “Rounding Out the Roster”

  2. By Phillie697 on Nov 28, 2011

    I like the DeJesus idea. Younger than Damon; decent enough offense, last year notwithstanding; plays good to above-average defense; and has good speed on the bases. Only problem with him is that once he’s on the team, it’s going to be tempting to plug him in as the regular LF if/when Mayberry struggles, and I don’t think I can even bring myself to argue against such a move. Giving Charlie options is akin to giving a 3-year-old a razor blade; you know he’s going to do some undesirable damage.

    Of course, I really just want to see Brown there. With the pitching we have, it’s the perfect time to bite the bullet of growing pains and see what we have in the kid, knowing that we have a near-lock on a playoff spot, especially if they are adding yet ANOTHER team to the playoffs this year. Alas, RAJ is our GM, and unfortunately for Brown, he only has eyes for 30-something players.

  3. By ColonelTom on Nov 28, 2011

    While we’re looking at high-OBP, lefty-hitting LFs, what about Bobby Abreu? The Angels would probably give him up for very little and cover the majority of his $9M salary. He can still run (21-for-26 SB last year) and gets on base at a good clip (.353 OBP).

  4. By Bill Baer on Nov 28, 2011

    @ Phillie697

    What I’d give to at least get a Mayberry/Brown platoon…

    @ ColonelTom

    I wouldn’t be opposed to Abreu at all, but I have a hard time seeing the Angels cut him loose and pay money to do so.

  5. By Phillie697 on Nov 28, 2011

    @ColonelTom,

    DeJesus is a better player than Abreu at this point. That’s not to say I wouldn’t want to see Bobby win a WS with the Phillies; he deserves to.

    @BB,

    Here is hoping Brown tears up AAA as he did early last season. At some point RAJ is going to run out of excuses for keeping the kid down. The absurdity of the Phillies’ treatment of Brown can be seen by looking at what is usually considered a moribund franchise: the Royals. Hosmer by no means destroyed major-league pitching when he came up, and in fact struggled mightily at some point. But guess what, at this point, is there anyone in the world who doesn’t think he’s going to be an absolute BEAST for years to come? I wish Brown had been, or at least will be, given a chance like that, and he has a MUCH better minor-league track record than Hosmer did when Hosmer was called up.

  6. By ColonelTom on Nov 28, 2011

    @Phillie697 – DeJesus is definitely better than Abreu, primarily because he’s a solid LF. Abreu would be a backup option in case DeJesus is out of the Phils’ price range (annual salary or years).

  7. By gfweb on Nov 28, 2011

    As sensible as resting an aging player (eg Polanco) seems, do we know that it actually makes a difference? Certainly there are one game’s worth of chances for injury that are missed, but the concept seems to be that the rest prevents future injury.

    This might well not be true. If injury occurs because of the amount of use, then rest makes sense. If injury occurs because of an age-related tendency to break-down, unrelated to amount of use, then rest or not, the aged player will come up lame at some point.

    Not sure how one would approach this question. Perhaps look at the number of injuries vs games played vs age as a start.

  8. By Scott G on Nov 28, 2011

    “It remains to be seen exactly how Charlie Manuel will split up the playing time”

    No, I think it’s safe to say that the answer is: incorrectly.

  9. By KH on Nov 28, 2011

    Don’t count out the return of Ibanez. I am still trying to figure out what the Phillies are thinking offering him arbitration. I find it hard to believe any other team in baseball wants Raul for more then chump change and he will certainly get more then that in Arbitration. So it seems to me the Phillies have a tentative agreement to bring him back on the cheap if he doesn’t get any kind of real offers elsewhere or else Amaro has miscalculate and Ibanez goes to arbitration for an easy pay day. Either case old man river is back on team. Am I missing something here?

  10. By hk on Nov 28, 2011

    KH,

    The other possible alternative is that Ibanez and his agent, who also represents Papelbon, agreed to do the Phils a favor…namely that they allowed the Phils to offer arbitration with a hand-shake agreement that Ibanez will reject it. Doing so would not hurt Ibanez’s situation as any team that might sign him would not lose a draft choice and would help the Phils by getting them a compensatory draft pick.

  11. By Dan K. on Nov 28, 2011

    KH, if Ibanez was going to accept arbitration, it would have happened already. He knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that was his best option for a pay day. RAJ and he obviously had a gentleman’s agreement in place.

    As for the rest, if Ibanez doesn’t get any real offers on the market, then I really don’t mind bringing him back… for a team friendly cost, of course. I would like to see him get his ring, he’s a nice guy. He still has a bit of use, too.

    Of course I, like most others, would rather just see RAJ plug Dom in for the year already. I think Cholly is more in favor of it than even RAJ is, to be honest.

  12. By aladou on Nov 28, 2011

    DeJesus is better defensively, but he strikes me as an older, left-handed, Ben Francisco. Career wOBAs are similar: Francisco .333, DeJesus .339.

  13. By JB Allen on Nov 28, 2011

    Has there been any discussion about the Phillies trying to land Reyes? If RAJ is willing to consider a long-term contract for a shortstop, then why not go with the guy who’s younger and has more upside? I’m not saying that Gonzalez would be a bad option, but with Brown available, money shouldn’t be allocated to another OF.

  14. By Marty Schoenleber on Nov 28, 2011

    I will be a little sad to see it happen, I like the kid, but I suspect that Kendrick goes on the trading block and is not back next year.

  15. By Phillie697 on Nov 28, 2011

    @aladou,

    “DeJesus is better defensively, but he strikes me as an older, left-handed, Ben Francisco.”

    You just listed THE two reasons why David DeJesus ISN’T Ben Francisco. 1) he is left-handed, which is the point of bringing him in to begin with, and 2) defensively they are night and day. DeJesus career UZR, 39.0, Francisco, -13.3. Nuff said. Saying they are similar is like saying “Curtis Granderson has more power, but Dexter Fowler strikes me as just another Curtis Granderson. I mean, their BA and OBP are pretty much the same, no?”

  16. By Phillie697 on Nov 28, 2011

    @JB Allen,

    If BB’s math is right, with $18 million to play with, we can’t afford Reyes, not if we want to give Hamels an extension. Sorry, Hamels > Reyes, that’s not even a debate. Unless, of course, Reyes wants to give us a Phillies discount like Cliff Lee did (although the Lee discount came from the less number of years, not from the AAV). If Reyes would agree to a 5/60 contract, I’d be willing to sign him to that, but the question is, will he?

  17. By JB Allen on Nov 28, 2011

    Phillie697 – No argument here about Hamels’ value, but how much is RAJ willing to pay Rollins? If that number would prevent an extension for Hamels anyway, then why not go for the best available shortstop? Maybe the asking price difference between Reyes and Rollins is greater than I imagine, but I’m guessing that Rollins is looking for something like 5/75.

    [To be clear, I think if Rollins is looking for something that high, then letting Rollins walk and extending Hamels makes more sense, but if RAJ is planning on throwing that kind of money at a shortstop, then take a shot at Reyes.]

  18. By Dan K. on Nov 29, 2011

    Wait… someone will be sad to see Kendrick leave the Phillies?

    *looks around* Did I accidentally click on a Braves blog?

  19. By Phillie697 on Nov 29, 2011

    @JB Allen,

    If RAJ is willing to pay 5/75 for JRoll, he would already be re-signed. There is a reason why JRoll is still shopping around. I’m pretty sure RAJ realizes that he has a Hamels extension to sign still.

    See, if we haven’t signed Papelbon to that ridiculous contract, we wouldn’t be having these problems. And don’t even get me started on Howard… And yes, I’m going to continue to bitch about those two things until every Phillies fan agrees with me.

    @Dan K.,

    I won’t be sad to see Kendrick go, but I do like the kid as well as a person, even if his baseball abilities left much to be desired.

  20. By JB Allen on Nov 29, 2011

    Phillie697 – Bitch away. The Papelbon contract is bad and the Howard contract is terrible.

  21. By Scott G on Nov 29, 2011

    In my opinion, the reason why Rollins is still “shopping around” is because Reyes hasn’t signed yet. Reyes will set the bar for what Rollins will make. Barring Rollins returning to Philly because he wants to be here, I wouldn’t count on him signing until Reyes does.

    I don’t think you should hate the Papelbon signing until it proves to have handcuff the Phillies. If the Phillies continue increasing their payroll, then who cares if Papelbon is making a lot?

  22. By Josh G on Nov 29, 2011

    @ BB

    “@ Phillie697

    What I’d give to at least get a Mayberry/Brown platoon…”

    Don’t we want ~250 ABs on each side of the plate ideally?

  23. By topherstarr on Nov 29, 2011

    If the goal is to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold, the payroll is actually slightly lower. Luxury tax payroll is calculated based on an adjusted AAV, not the actual team-to-player obligations in a given year.

    The Phillies roster projects to around $155 million right now (my calculations are posted at The Good Phight if anyone is interested).

  24. By hk on Nov 29, 2011

    Scott G,

    Whether or not the Papelbon signing handcuffs them from other moves does not address the opportunity cost of overpaying him. If the Phils sign Rollins and a veteran OF, you can say that signing Papelbon didn’t handcuff them as they will have addressed all of their needs. However, if they had spent less at closer – I suggested weeks ago that they target Matt Thornton, whom the White Sox are now reportedly looking to trade (according to MLBTradeRumors.com) – they would have had more money to spend at other positions. With the difference between Papelbon’s and Thornton’s salaries, they would be able to afford Reyes instead of Rollins or they could have targetted a better player than Ty Wigginton to play 1B and 3B and to PH.

  25. By Phillie697 on Nov 29, 2011

    @Scott G,

    Howard’s extension prevented us from bidding for Prince or Pujols. Papelbon’s contract prevents us from bidding for Reyes, possibly re-signing Oswalt, maybe make a play for Cuddyer, or any number of different things we can do to shore up the team. There are many ways to spend a finite amount of money, and I’m sorry, spending $12.5 million a year on a guy pitching 60 innings a year when there are other needs is not my idea of being smart. I’m not willing to accept all of RAJ’s moves thus far as a given when evaluating whether or not the Papelbon contract was acceptable; I look at it with all possibilities in mind.

  26. By Jim on Nov 29, 2011

    I think a move worth exploring is prying Adam LaRoche from the Nats to play 1B while Howard is out.

    I follow the Nats pretty closely (having lived there and still having friends who are Nats fans) and he seems to be causing a logjam. I believe they will eventually sign Prince and move Morse back to LF, which leaves LaRoche as the odd man out. The Nats also need starting pitching so we could probably do a Blanton for LaRoche swap since their salaries this year are about even.

    I’d rather the Phillies sign a true 1B for a year and keep Mayberry in LF than do a complicated platoon, which Cholly has proven in the past he doesn’t manage well.

  27. By Phillie697 on Nov 29, 2011

    You mean Adam LaRoche, he of the .258 wOBA last year, and has never been known to be a wizard at 1B? The words “pry” and “Adam LaRoche” should not be used together by any GM in MLB. Even a platoon of Thome/Wigginton would be better than LaRoche, as would plugging Mayberry at 1B full-time. I’m sure we can take whoever our AAA 1B is and he’d be better than Adam LaRoche.

  28. By LTG on Nov 29, 2011

    What Phillie said about LaRoche. And, is it just me or has RAJ gone 30-something crazed? Misch, Podsednik, Frandsen? Is he trying to hit the fountain of youth lottery?

  29. By Jim on Nov 29, 2011

    @Phillies697

    Adam LaRoche played injured last year before being shut down for the season, which explains his low wOBA. He also had good fielding stats the past few years, unlike Wigginton who is absolutely putrid at 1B. Expecting Thome to give you anything in the field is just a pipe dream. He’s the new Ross Gload, period, and a “platoon” between him and Wiggy is just not realistic.

    LaRoche also has far better career offensive numbers than Wiggy and is fully recovered from his injury per several reports out of Washington.

    Anyway I know its not a realistic situation but it would allow Mayberry (LF), Thome (pinch hitter) and Wiggy (utility) to play where they belong and give Cholly less room to screw up, all the while keeping our budget the same.

  30. By Phillie697 on Nov 29, 2011

    @Jim,

    I applaud the out-of-box thinking, but I think you over-estimate the scarcity of viable 1B. LaRoche is not a valuable commodity that needs to pried from anyone. His last full season, two years ago, he had a .339 wOBA and struck out 28% of the time. I mean, 2011 Ryan Howard was bad enough, but Adam LaRoche was worse.

    @LTG,

    RAJ has BEEN 30-something crazed. Hello, Ibanez and his 3/33?

  31. By LTG on Nov 29, 2011

    Thome’s wOBA last year = .362
    LaRoche’s best wOBA (several years ago) = .379

    And Thome is just another Gload?

    And does Wigginton belong in the field if not 1B? Does he do less damage in LF?

    Besides, LaRoche is superfluous if we would just bring up Brown. Bill James puts him at a .350 wOBA!

  32. By Scott G on Nov 29, 2011

    hk,

    I’d argue that you’ll never know what the Phillies would have done otherwise, but I would argue that you’re possibly giving RAJ too much credit for going after someone under the radar like Thornton.

    Phillie697,

    How do you know that Papelbon’s contract has stopped us from going after Reyes. Are they definitely not going to get him? Would RAJ want him here anyway? You don’t know these things. Also, I never condoned the Howard extension (I never will), merely said maybe the Papelbon contract is just one of many big contracts (Lee, Howard) to come. My point is: what if the Phillies made the decision to become the new Yankees, and would be willing to spend over $200 million? Because you can never know who they’d sign otherwise, how can you be angry if the Phillies sign Reyes/Rollins, and fill their other needs in addition to signing a top 3 closer despite overpaying for him?

  33. By hk on Nov 29, 2011

    Of course we won’t get a chance to know what they might have done if they didn’t overpay Papelbon, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a(n opportunity) cost to doing it.

  34. By Phillie697 on Nov 29, 2011

    What if the sun doesn’t come up tomorrow? Would any of this mean anything then? Of course, you and I both know it’s exceedingly likely the sun will come up tomorrow, just as it’s exceedingly likely the Phillies won’t be spending over $200 million on payroll this year.

  35. By LTG on Nov 29, 2011

    It’s one thing to value former all-star caliber players at a higher age; it’s another to value aging bench players and sometime starters. Before I thought it was a happenstance that he signed a bunch of over-30 players because he values experience too much. Now, he just seems to like the number itself, like a good Pythagorean.

  36. By LTG on Nov 29, 2011

    Oh and if the sun doesn’t come up tomorrow I’m sleeping in.

  37. By Brett on Nov 30, 2011

    The only way that I sign Rollins to a five-year deal is if: 1) the final two years have some kind of vesting option (preferably combined PAs for the previous two seasons) and 2) he is made to understand that he is not guaranteed to be the starting short stop for the entire length of the contract.

    So long as he’s healthy, Rollins can be a solid offensive contributor. What you don’t want, though, is a situation like the Yankees have with Jeter where he basically is a defensive liability in the middle infield. If Rollins is brought back on a five-year deal, he has to be made to understand upfront that there is a possibility that he could be moved either to third, or even tried in the outfield if circumstances require it.

  38. By ColonelTom on Nov 30, 2011

    Even if he returns to form, LaRoche is a notoriously slow starter, which is a bad fit since Howard should be back by June or July. He’s also limited to 1B, and with Thome on the bench, they’ll want someone with more versatility.

    DeJesus just signed with the Cubs (2 years, $10M guaranteed + incentives), so he’s off the board. Free Domonic Brown!

  39. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    Another option is to give Jimmy the market rate for the first three years and give him the option to accept decreasing salaries in the 4th and 5th years. For instance, they could offer $12.5M per year in in 2012 through 2014, $8.5M in 2015 (Jimmy’s option) and $6.5M in 2016 (Jimmy’s option). Depending upon whether Jimmy exercises the options, they would pay him $12.5M per year for 3 years, $11.5M per year for 4 years or $10.5M per year for 5 years.

  40. By Scott G on Nov 30, 2011

    I’m sorry, I guess I’m missing something here. What if RAJ went out and signed the best player at every position, and paid them all 30 million a year? Would you complain because he overpaid? At that point you’d have everything you’d need, and you’re not missing out on anything. So who cares how much he spent?

    Obviously I am going to an extreme here, but we’re all pretty certain he’s only going to make a few key moves in an off-season. The Phillies need to fill the role of SS (most important in my opinion), they needed to decide on a reliever that can “close” (in their opinion, they signed one of the best names on the market). They should give Hamels his money, and they probably should get another decent reliever for the pen. They also got Thome and Wigginton on the cheap.

    Obviously you can’t judge moves based solely on future outcomes. However, if the Phillies fill the necessary positions, what is the harm if they prove they are willing to spend considerably more than in the past? How can you complain just because they paid more than you would pay for Papelbon?

    HK,

    I feel like you’re saying the opportunity cost could be something down the line that they can’t do for financial reasons. If they never get to that point, who cares how much they paid? They gave Papelbon the same AAV as Lidge, and Papelbon is a lot better. The deal happened 3(?) years later, and they’re paying the same price to a better pitcher? Doesn’t sound all that bad to me when you put it like that.

    Bottom line: If the Phillies are dedicated to trying to bring in the best talent possible, and the Papelbon deal does not stand in their way, it shouldn’t matter how much they spend because there is no downside.

  41. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    @hk,

    Jimmy would take that kind of a contract in a heartbeat… If he was 26 years old. Older players aren’t looking to get out of their golden-egg contract early. There is no way Jimmy wouldn’t look at that contract as basically a 5/52.5, and quite frankly, I wouldn’t blame him, since that’s how I would look at it. I’m thinking he wants more than 52.5 for 5.

  42. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    Scott G,

    No, your missing my point. One example is that they traded for, and presumably plan to give playing time to, Ty Wigginton, he of the -0.7 fWAR and -2.8 bWAR over the past three seasons. Obviously within their budgetary restrictions, they felt $2M and a PTBNL for Wigginton was good value. If they didn’t overpay for Paps, they could have improved upon Wigginton.

  43. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    @Scott G,

    Because if we didn’t sign Papelbon, we might not have had to go with Thome and Wigginton. Like I said a few posts earlier, you’re already assuming the “holes” that Thome and Wigginton filled is already a done deal, whereas I’m looking at this and say, if we didn’t spend all that money on Papelbon, perhaps we could have done better? Instead of Thome and Wigginton, maybe DeJesus and Cuddyer/Prado/Infante? Comes out about the same money if you think about it, and don’t tell me you wouldn’t feel much better about our lineup with those two super-subs as opposed to a grandpa and a lousy, albeit versatile, sub. Heck with Infante we would even have a good insurance if we don’t end up signing Rollins or Reyes.

    This isn’t just about whether we over-paid for Papelbon; this is about how I don’t think the money spent on him improved the team as much as it would if we spent that money elsewhere. There IS a downside, you just refuse to see it. It’s not always about the flashy mega-deal players.

  44. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    Phillie697,

    What do you think Jimmy will eventually get (in years and dollars)?

  45. By Scott G on Nov 30, 2011

    I was being sincere about missing your point. I honestly believe they got Wigginton to be nothing more than a bench player who can spell Polanco and Utley, and fill in while Howard is hurt. To me, that’s why they wanted someone cheap – it wasn’t a position they NEEDED to fill with someone great.

    Are we also sure that RAJ doesn’t see Wigginton as better than he is? He IS a career .265 hitter (stupid, I know). He also has a career 100 OPS+. He’s pretty average, and it’s not beyond RAJ to overvalue players like Wigginton and Polanco (97 OPS+).

  46. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    @Scott G,

    And you would want us to give “credit” for RAJ’s stupidity because? If he signed Papelbon because he was thinking to himself, “Great scott, I can afford Papelbon because I can go out and trade for the great Wigginton to fill a hole perfectly on the cheap!”, I’m thinking some kind of expletive would be involved on my part.

  47. By Scott G on Nov 30, 2011

    Phillie,

    So basically you see money spent on bench players as more important than on a closer? (that is sincere), or are you saying that Cuddyer should start over someone the Phillies have (Polanco or Mayberry). Cuddyer made $10.5 mil last year. If the Phillies go with Mayberry in left, he’s pretty cheap. I also don’t see them paying Polanco and not playing him. Trying to look at this realistically.

  48. By Scott G on Nov 30, 2011

    What “hole” is Wigginton filling?! He’s a bench player who might get slightly more time because Howard is hurt.

    You can replace Howard with Mayberry/Thome, and anyone else that was on the Phillies bench last year.

    Play Mayberry in LF and 1B, play Thome sometimes at 1B, and play Brown in LF when Mayberry is at 1B.

  49. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    @hk,

    With all the damn hype surrounding the lack of SS talent all over the place now, I’m thinking our original consensus of 5/60 before the season ended is a bit on the low side now. I don’t think he’ll get 5/75 as JB Allen had mentioned, but I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he ended up with 5/70, which would just BARELY be at the range where the Phillies would be able to afford while still retain the ability to give Hamels an extension. And if they do, trust me, Blanton will be gone at some point, guaranteed, probably with us eating half his salary if not more.

    If the Phillies do sign him to 5/70, that would be yet another contract I’ll bitch about for the next five years.

  50. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    @Scott G,

    If all of this was an elaborate attempt to give Dom more playing time by penciling in Mayberry at 1B, I take all of the criticism back. You and I both know that’s probably wishful thinking.

    As for the money on bench players… Yes, if you have read my posts this off-season, I was the one who advocated trading Victorino for Ramirez and Thorton, and then shoring up our bench so that we would be well-prepared for the 150+ games of injuries to the starting lineup I predict this team will have next year. That was how I would have spent the $50M.

  51. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    Phillie,

    I just don’t think any team other than the one with RAJ as GM giving him $70M for 5 years, but if that is the ballpark where you think he’ll end up, I surely understand why you think my offer is way off base. I’ll be surprised if he signs elsewhere for more than 4 years or $13M of AAV.

    Scott,

    No one is saying that closer is not an important position. The argument is two-fold, that closer should not have been the first priority to fill and that they overpaid Papelbon. I bet if they had filled other positions first (and with better players), they could have come back to Papelbon and gotten him for three years (with a 4th year versting option) for $11M or less or gotten Madson for 3 years at $9M or $9.5M per year.

  52. By LTG on Nov 30, 2011

    Hey, at least we signed Scott Elarton.

  53. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    LTG,

    I think you mean, at least we signed Tuffy Gosewisch, who’s only 28, thereby showing that RAJ does at least recognize that players under the age of 30 exist.

  54. By Scott G on Nov 30, 2011

    The only thing I think we need more than a good bullpen arm is a SS. I don’t think the Phillies will try and get Reyes, and since I am fairly confident no one will sign Rollins (or any other meaningful SS) before Reyes, then there’s no other position that NEEDS to be filled more than closer at this point in time. I guess I’m coming from the mindset that it doesn’t matter if you sign Papelbon then Rollins or Rollins then Papelbon so long as Rollins (my hope) and Papelbon are on the team.

    P.S. I don’t really like Papelbon aside from the fact that he’s pretty good.

  55. By JB Allen on Nov 30, 2011

    Phillie – 5/75 or even 5/70 is way too much for Rollins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the latter happens. Hey, Derek Jeter made $15MM+ at age 37, and any agent worth his weight in horsecrap will argue that Rollins is a more valuable player from here on out. Great glove, decent bat, disruptive on the basepaths, and he’s a fan favorite! Also, RAJ isn’t afraid to sign hitters through their late 30′s. None of this is how I look at it, but I think this is a way of looking at it that may stick with RAJ.

    Scott G – Fair point that IF the Phillies aren’t concerned about cash limitations, trying to sign the best players makes sense. But assuming the Phillies don’t care about throwing money around, I would be happy if the Phils signed the best available players to enormous one-year contracts. Signing a guy like Rollins or Howard to a high-price, multiyear contract means that three years from now, the Phils will be stuck with high-priced, second-rate position players. And even that wouldn’t be such an issue if the Phillies were willing to acknowledge those contracts as sunk costs and move on. But given how the Phils kept trotting out Ibanez last year when better options were available, I don’t see that sort of thinking happening in the years to come.

  56. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    Scott G,

    JB Allen’s right. While Phillie697 and I are really just complaining about overpaying Papelbon in 2012, another concern about that deal is how they will use him in 2014 and 2015 (and 2016 if his option vests) if he begins to decline. Judging from their insistence on keeping Lidge as closer and Ibanez in the regular lineup, I fear they could be running Papelbon out to close in the latter years despite the fact that the bullpen may have better arms in it.

  57. By JB Allen on Nov 30, 2011

    I meant to say that Rollins is a more valuable player than Jeter from here on out.

  58. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    Last year, Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez and Pete Orr combined for 638 plate appearances…more than 10% of the team’s total. With the team getting older and the likelihood that Howard will miss at least a month, I would think that the utility players will account for a similar number of PA’s if not more in 2012. Since I really don’t see Thome getting much more than 100 of those PA’s, I would be more comfortable if the other ~538 went to better players than Wilson Valdez and Ty Wigginton.

  59. By Scott G on Nov 30, 2011

    Why do we assume Papelbon will be garbage in the future? Since 2006, Papelbon has had only 2 seasons with BB/9 over 3 (never over 4.00), and virtually no seasons with K/9 under 10.

    In 9 seasons, Brad Lidge only had 2 seasons UNDER a 4.00 BB/9.

    Papelbon is not Brad Lidge, and we’ll end up paying the same AAV for them with their contracts ending up when they’re both 34.

    This is clearly a better deal than for Lidge, especially considering inflation. And yes, I do realize that just because one deal is better than a bad deal doesn’t make it a good deal.

    re: sticking with people who suck (Ibanez). I’d be willing to bet that Manuel has just as much to do with that as RAJ, and this is one reason why Manuel is bad in my opinion (I wish Robby Bonfire still commented here).

    I will never argue about the Ryan Howard extension the same way I am about this. I’d much rather we all bash the organization for paying Howard twice as much as Papelbon, than have to try and defend the possibility that the Papelbon deal isn’t the worst thing in the world.

    Also, further down the line, while we might be paying for Papelbon, we may not/will not be paying people like Halladay, Utley, Ibanez, and Jamie Moyer (arguably the worst contract of all of them).

  60. By hk on Nov 30, 2011

    I don’t think anyone’s arguing that the Papelbon deal is close to being as bad as the Howard deal or that Papelbon will be garbage – although we cannot eliminate the possibility that he declines or gets injured. We are just saying that the Phils probably could have signed him for fewer years and dollars and doing so would have been beneficial, even if they end up filling all of their holes.

    As far as further down the line is concerned, when the Phils won’t be paying the likes of Halladay, Utley, etc., they will have to replace them and that is another place where overpaying Papelbon might bite them. Right now, the Phils have ~$96M committed to five players (Halladay, Lee, Papelbon, Howard and Utley) for 2013 or slightly > $100M committed to six if they pick up Chooch’s $5M option.

  61. By jauer on Nov 30, 2011

    free bonfire!

  62. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    Okay, Scott G, here is how I would have run the Phillies’ off-season:

    Trade Victorino for Matt Thorton and Alexei Ramirez.

    Pencil in Brown in LF, tentatively put Mayberry in CF. Decline arbitration on Kendrick, bring up Aumont.

    Sign David DeJesus, trade for Martin Prado (not sure what I would trade, but I’m pretty sure it’s doable). Sign Giambi (who, btw, would have been a better signing than Thome IMO. We at least know he can play the field still).

    The end result? Got our SS, have a three-way closer audition between Thorton, Bastardo, and Aumont. Have DeJesus as super OF sub, or CF replacement if Mayberry sucks there. Prado will pick up the 600 at bats we inevitably have to give him because of injuries, and we’ll play Giambi at 1B while Howard is hurt, or as a better Gload when Howard comes back. We can also play Mayberry at 1B and DeJesus at CF depending on matchup. And oh, we’ll be about $20M below the luxury tax cap, which we can use to give Hamels an extension, and have still enough left over to spend for a rainy day. I might think about signing Matt Capp if I think my 3-headed closer monster needs a 4th head. Or if you don’t like Giambi, sign Carlos Pena. I’ve got enough cash for that too.

  63. By Phillie697 on Nov 30, 2011

    Oh, and I would look REALLY hard for a way to give Charlie a brain transplant, because I don’t think I can just outright fire him without causing a tsunami-sized PR nightmare. All those interchangeable parts I just got for Charlie will surely make his head explode in Spring Training.

  64. By Scott G on Dec 1, 2011

    I like how you’re assuming the roles of multiple GMs

  65. By Phillie697 on Dec 1, 2011

    Two trades is exactly one more than RAJ made this off-season, and there are already rumors out there how both the Braves and the White Sox are looking to trade Prado and Thorton respectively, so it’s not like I’m going out on a limb here.

  66. By Scott G on Dec 1, 2011

    1) I’m sure the Braves and Phillies are dying to work out trades with one another.

    2) I’ll give you credit that the White Sox probably undervalue Thornton, but why would they want to part with their relatively cheap SS who they have signed through the 2015 season for a CF who they will need to re-sign after 2012?

    I’d also be willing to bet since you’re assuming the Phillies have this limitation on salary (they very well might, but it has been increasing rather rapidly), that had we given you the role of GM last off-season, we wouldn’t have heard about signing Cliff Lee because you, nor anyone else, has any idea what the owners are allowing RAJ to do.

  67. By JB Allen on Dec 1, 2011

    Scott G – Hey, the Phillies traded Estrada for Millwood in 2002, so there’s precedent!

  68. By Phillie697 on Dec 1, 2011

    @Scott G,

    Actually, if Alexei Ramirez is not available, I would still have made the trade for Prado, but I would pencil Mayberry at 1B and Dom at LF and went after Reyes. And still have enough money to re-sign Hamels. Yes, you’re right, I don’t value closers. Paying $20M a year for Reyes is STILL better than paying $12.5M for Papelbon. Like I said, it’s not about not spending money. It’s about spending money wisely. I ain’t got a problem with spending money.

    And oh, I would trade Galvis for Ramirez in a heartbeat, so if the White Sox want to work some kind of a deal for that, I’d be willing to listen too. Victorino + Galvis for Ramirez + Thorton + something? I don’t even think that “something” needs to be very much to convince me. A cost-controlled SS with 4-5 WAR a year through 2016 is worth pretty much all but the very best of prospects.

  69. By Scott G on Dec 2, 2011

    There’s a huge difference in his fWAR and bWAR. Why would the white sox ever make this deal? Galvis probably makes them less interested. He’s awful.

  70. By LTG on Dec 2, 2011

    bWAR undervalues defensive contributions. fWAR might overvalue it, but UZR becomes pretty reliable over 3 seasons. fWAR is the better representation of Ramirez’s value. White Sox need a CF, Galvis might turn out to be another Ramirez. Really good glove, not so good bat but good enough. His increased strength seems to have made him a potentially viable MLB player. In fact, this discussion already happened here, where I played Scott G and Phillie played himself. (Clearly, Scott G is more versatile as an actor than Phillie.)

  71. By Scott G on Dec 2, 2011

    Freddy Galvis can barely a .700 OPS at the AAA level. His career minor league triple slash line is .246/.292/.321.

    Also, that last sentence went over my head. Care to elaborate? haha

  72. By Phillie697 on Dec 2, 2011

    I think the White Sox will take any good OF, nevermind a good CF. Right now, they can generously be described as having three Ty Wiggintons in their outfield.

  73. By hk on Dec 3, 2011

    If, as reported, the Braves want Seth Smith and a good prospect from the Rockies for Prado, it is unlikely that the Phils would have been able to make a deal for him. However, if the rumors that Rockies are looking to move Seth Smith and/or Ian Stewart are true, I still don’t get why the Phils had to rush into the Wigginton trade and why they didn’t pursue his younger, better teammates Smith and Stewart. Maybe because Wigginton’s already 30 while Smith and Stewart are still in their 20′s?

  74. By Phillie697 on Dec 3, 2011

    @hk,

    That and RAJ probably thought he got Wigginton “on the cheap.”

    Wow, Seth Smith AND a good prospect for Prado? Maybe the Braves GM smokes the same crack RAJ does.

  75. By LTG on Dec 4, 2011

    I was just joking around. A few weeks back, Phillie and I went back and forth over whether the risk-reward balance favored making the proposed trade for Ramirez. You are now taking the side I took, sort of. Hence the acting comment.

  76. By hk on Dec 4, 2011

    Phillie697,

    I guess RAJ probably thinks he got Laynce Nix, who had never signed for more than one year in his MLB career, “on the cheap” too.

Post a Comment