Crashburn Alley

By mratfink on Oct 31, 2011

can we just sign madson to a bad contract? i mean we know RAJ is gonna sign someone to a bad contract and i think i like madson the best of all the “closers” on the market.

By LTG on Oct 31, 2011

How much do you think it would cost to get Dontrelle Willis as a LOOGY? This article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dontrelle-willis-lefty-specialist/) suggests he can be had at league minimum, but that sounds fishy to me.

By Phillie697 on Oct 31, 2011

@LTG,

I think Dontrelle Willis can probably be had for a happy meal and half a bag of balls. I’m dead serious. People will always look at him as a failed starter, and he hasn’t done anything to disprove that. That said, don’t expect RAJ or Charlie to be THAT creative and sign Willis to be a LOOGY. They had a fantastic LOOGY that they let go last season.

By Phillie697 on Oct 31, 2011

On an unrelated topic, how about this trade for thoughts among you savvy Phillies fans? Shane Victorino for Alexei Ramirez, Matt Thorton, and a prospect/pick. Imminently doable; White Sox can use a good CF. We have a fantastic replacement for Rollins, another power arm for the bullpen who can possibly close and replace Madson, and we save a ton of money, and I mean a TON, by not re-signing Rollins and Madson. We also get to sell Victorino high before he 1) falls back down to earth, or 2) costs mad money next year.

All we have to do is replace Vic with Mayberry and plug Dom in LF, AND we have some cap space to play with. Someone tell RAJ to call me!!!

By Greg on Oct 31, 2011

I would love that trade. However, like most fan-proposed trades, it ignores the fact the other team would never make that trade.

By hk on Oct 31, 2011

Phillie697, count me in although the White Sox throwing in a prospect might be a sticking point for them. If so, I’d do it without the prospect. I think the Sox see Thornton as a failed closer and they may be desperate enough to get out from under his contract – they owe him $12M for the next two seasons – to swap Ramirez for Victorino.

By Phillie697 on Oct 31, 2011

@Greg,

The White Sox were already ready to trade Ramirez at the trade deadline, it’s not like good CFs grow on trees either, the White Sox can really use an OF, and Victorino had a legit fantastic year. I don’t think it’s because I “ignored the fact that the other team would never make that trade,” it’s that I don’t think RAJ would be that creative.

@hk,

I would do that trade without the prospect/pick either, but with the year Vic had and how desperate the White Sox are with their OF, I figured we can at least try to pry a little more out of them. Even a grade C prospect is something.

Again on an unrelated note, TLR is retiring. Did NOT see that coming, but it sure makes a lot of sense. We’ll miss you Tony, and we’ll see you in the HoF in five years.

By hk on Oct 31, 2011

Bill Baer,

In the past few days, the Indians picked up the option on Fauston Carmona and traded for Derek Lowe. In 2011, Carmona and Lowe were among the top 5 SP’s in ERA – SIERA. As far as you know, is the Indians front office known to be a typically saber-metrically inclined one or is it just a coincidence?

By hk on Oct 31, 2011

Bill Baer,

Off topic….in the past few days, the Indians picked up the option on Fauston Carmona and traded for Derek Lowe, both of whom were among the top 5 SP’s in ERA – SIERA in 2011. As far as you know, is the Indians front office known to be saber-metrically inclined or are these two transactions just a coincidence?

By hk on Oct 31, 2011

Sorry for posting twice.

By Nick on Oct 31, 2011

For that White Sox trade, why not then (since he was cut) sign Sizemore? He’s not too old (29) and posted a .700 OPS this season and every season minus 2010. He’s not uber young but still in his prime and could be a decent pick up.

By Scott G on Oct 31, 2011

HK,

I’m pretty sure that’s from whom Billy Beane acquired Paul DePodesta.

By LTG on Oct 31, 2011

While acquiring Lowe looks like a savvy move, I’m not sure the Indians defense (especially on the infield) will provide Lowe with a better environment for success. Lowe’s BABIP jumped when he went to the Braves and it stayed up for all three years, despite keeping his batted ball profile approximately the same. His poor results relative to his fielding independent measures are probably due to pitching in front of a bad defense. Last year, the Indians were as bad if not worse than the Braves. Is this going to change?

By LTG on Oct 31, 2011

I won’t miss Tony. I don’t like grumps.

By Phillie697 on Oct 31, 2011

@Nick,

That’s an interesting idea. I certainly wouldn’t mind signing Sizemore if we trade Vic. Alas, that’s not going to happen, sigh.

By hk on Oct 31, 2011

@ Scott G, thanks.

@ Nick, Sizemore would be fine on a low base, high incentive (per plate appearances) deal. He might even be worth a flyer as part of the LF equation (assuming RAJ sticks to his misguided guns and sends Dom to AAA for the year).

By hk on Oct 31, 2011

@ Bill, thanks for sharing the tweet.

@ LTG, good point about the Indians IF defense, but I suspect they’ll have a better defensive right side of the IF to compliment their right-handed ground ball throwing starters. It would seem logical that they target a good defensive 1B as an improvement on LaPorta and Santana and the change from Orlando Cabrera to Kipnis at 2B should be an upgrade.

By LTG on Nov 1, 2011

I’m not convinced Sizemore is worth taking a flyer on unless we have a back-up plan. When he has played the last two years, which is not much, he hasn’t been very good. Low BB%, high K%, decline in defensive stats (that appears to have started before the injuries set in), all make me worry that the risk with Sizemore is not only recurring injury but also diminished skills (which might be related to the injuries lasting effects). I admit that the sample sizes here are small and that it is unknown whether the injuries and lack of playing time are at the root of the statistical decline. But aren’t these numbers enough to conclude that losing Vic and taking a chance on Sizemore is too much of a risk unless there is someone else who could man CF reliably (Mayberry doesn’t count as reliable yet)?

I’d say David Dejesus is preferable but he’ll probably be overpaid by someone and is just another left-handed bat anyway.

By Phillie697 on Nov 1, 2011

@LTG,

Mayberry ain’t going to become your definition of “reliable” unless we actually stick him out there and play him everyday. Hence the Sizemore backup plan.

By LTG on Nov 1, 2011

Then put him in left field where his fielding abilities are a benefit compared to replacement. We will give up more runs than we can gain if we replace Victorino with an inadequate CF. While the UZR on Mayberry in CF is not stable yet; I doubt he will be a better or equal CF than Vic. If a scout says otherwise, I’ll give up the argument.

By Phillie697 on Nov 2, 2011

@LTG,

Then where do we play Dom? We have plenty of OF who needs playing time.

By LTG on Nov 2, 2011

Why not platoon Dom and Mayberry? And we have plenty of corner outfielders, but only one CF.

By Phillie697 on Nov 2, 2011

Mayberry played 32 games/246.2 innings in CF this year with no discernable inadequacies, so I don’t know where you get the idea he would be subpar, even if it is SSS. Unproven, I’ll give you that, but nothing he has done has suggested to me he would be subpar in CF. Besides, his .854 OPS would be legitimately elite in CF (Victorino’s OPS was .846), whereas he would only be above average in a corner outfield spot. I think the Phillies would be overall improved if we traded Vic, put Mayberry in CF, Dom in LF, and get Ramirez to play SS, and still have enough money to sign a super-utility guy like Cuddyer.

As far as platoon goes… Do you really expect Charlie to employ a platoon effectively like Washington used Michael Young? I think his head might explode if given the task.

By LTG on Nov 2, 2011

Given past results, Dom will provide below average offensive production at a corner outfield spot next year as well as below average defense. Mayberry provides above average production and defense in a corner outfield spot. And Vic’s number might dip a little, but, unless you think he will lose the pop he’s developed over the last couple of seasons, he will provide some elite offense again. So, will the one WAR improvement that Ramirez provides over Rollins outweigh, the loss if Mayberry is in CF and Dom is in LF? I’m skeptical.

My doubts about Mayberry’s range in CF are mostly observational, but also his UZR is negative in the SSS. That’s why I noted the caveat about what the scouts say. If the scouts say Mayberry can cover the same territory as Victorino, I’m less skeptical.

If Charlie is going to have trouble working a Mayberry-Dom platoon, how is signing Cuddyer going to be a great boon? Won’t Charlie turn him into a PH and sometime relief starter? Shouldn’t we get more out of Cuddyer than that for the money he’ll cost?

By JC on Nov 2, 2011

Yea count me in on the skeptical on Mayberry bandwagon. I’d like to see his offensive improvement continue into next season. Even though his OPS was similar to Victorino’s, it was in only half the PAs. And like LTG, I’m curious to what the scouts say about Mayberry’s defense as single season defensive metrics are a mess.

Then you’d still be counting on Mayberry and Brown as everyday players which, for a team that has a pitching staff built to “win” in the next few seasons, seems too risky. I think if anything this trade may just be a wash (ideally).

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

@LTG,

The POINT of playing Dom is because we believe he is better than his performance thus far. If you don’t believe that, then why even have this conversation? You would be in the camp that believes that he’s worth no more than a few bag of balls. I am most decidedly NOT in that camp. Obviously, the belief is that he will be equal if not better than Mayberry in LF, and Mayberry would be pretty much equal in CF to Vic, or at least equal enough to make the change from Rollins to Ramirez + saving us about $20 million a year (by not signing Rollins and Madson) worthwhile. So the proper measure isn’t just whether the upgrade from Rollins to Ramirez is worth the trouble; it’s also based on the belief that Dom will get better and Mayberry can play CF adequately. Of course, you are entitled to still be skeptical about that proposition as well, but at least frame it correctly.

Yes, signing Cuddyer might make Charlie’s head explode, and he probably will misuse him initially. However, this team will have injuries, and if last year was any indication, it will have a LOT of injuries. I feel much better that we’re trotting Cuddyer out there than… Valdez and Bennie Fresh. He might get 300-400 ABs next year just from filling in for injured players. Remember, Cuddyer presumably can play just about anywhere. I don’t think Cuddyer should be signed to be “platooned” for anybody; I already conceded Charlie isn’t smart enough for that. But I do think he should be signed to be a superior bat off the bench and that all-important injury replacement which this team desperately needs.

By Rob SJ on Nov 3, 2011

Discussion of using Brown in a platoon or as a starter in LF ignores the reports that his LF defense is not good now. He was shaky enough in RF. Unless he makes great strides in the offseason, I don’t see him making the opening day roster. It’s one thing to have a guy with limited range like Ibanez, another to have a guy dropping routine fly balls. Ibanez at least caught the balls he got to.

By JC on Nov 3, 2011

Phillies697: If your interest is in saving money (which it seems this proposed trade, at least in part, does) then why would you be willing to sign Cuddyer? He just made 10.5 million last year and, even if he takes less, this is his last chance at a “big” contract too. Isn’t that too much for a bat off the bench? Besides that he is not a good defender.

And I think when you say the belief is that Brown + Mayberry = Mayberry + Victorino, it’s more an ideal than what probably will happen. I still think Brown can be a really good everyday player, but in all likelihood, that development will take time (more than this coming season). Mayberry is better than I thought he would be, but I’d like to see the new plate approach again this season. I guess my problem with the trade isn’t the trade itself, but more that you’re banking on the players performing at their ceiling (immediately) rather than anything else.

By LTG on Nov 3, 2011

I framed it fine. A sign of this is that you picked out a suppressed disagreement. You (who is “we” by the way) just disagree with the projection that Dom won’t improve that much next year. I can grant that Dom will improve without granting that he’ll improve enough to make up for the loss of Victorino. I’m not a Dom-hater; I like his offensive skill set, but I expect it will take some time for him to develop into an everyday player yet. That’s why I would rather platoon him for now (and Charlie can at least handle a simple right-left platoon, without looking any more deeply into the numbers to make fine adjustments). If Dom finally explodes onto the scene, then we have a good problem.

In the end, I take a conservative approach here. Keep the production you have that you are confident you can get, rather than blow it up for production you are hoping for but have no evidence of yet.

On Cuddyer, he can’t replace Valdez, though he can replace BF. He sucks at 2B and I don’t think he ever has played SS. He also isn’t very good at 3B but he’ll do as a replacement for an injured player.

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

@Rob SJ,

Before I begin, don’t get me wrong… Both Ibanez and Dom were terrible defenders, but I don’t think you fully realize how bad Ibanez is. Brown just looked terrible, but Ibanez IS terrible. There is practically no difference between a guy who got to 80 balls but dropped 20 vs. a guy who can only get to 50 balls but caught all of them. One just looked worse doing it is all. Except in Dom’s case, he can only get better, whereas Ibanez couldn’t.

@JC,

My point wasn’t saving money. My point is to not spend money where we don’t have to in order to spend that same money to gain an advantage somewhere else, like, I don’t know, not let the injury bug kill us again. There is a hidden effect to injury that an inadequate bench amplifies that nobody talks about: we will rush players back quicker. Having a Cuddyer will alleviate that need to rush players back, plus perhaps afford the older players some rest.

Besides, the only way a player is going to get better is if he plays. Platooning Mayberry/Brown will stunt one of them, since quite frankly, one of them won’t play enough. Brown had a .729 OPS v. R/.705 OPS v. L split… Not exactly that big of a difference to warrant a platoon. I think people who are advocating platooning Mayberry/Brown are those people who are somewhat expecting Brown to fail but at the same time don’t want to give up on him yet, perhaps to psychologically justify us not trading him all those times. I personally don’t advocate that kind of RAJ-like wishy-washy-ness.

@LTG,

I’m not confident Vic will repeat, hence why I suggested this trade in the first place. Part of it, as I said before, is about selling him high. Besides, if we use the money we save to sign Cuddyer, and Brown fails? Voila, we have perfectly viable replacement for him, who can also sub for an injured player (btw, Valdez isn’t just the sub at SS, he’s also the sub at 2B and 3B too; Cuddyer can’t replace Valdez, but he can CERTAINLY limit the number of times we send Valdez to the plate; even if Cuddyer isn’t very good at 2B, I STILL rather send him out there than Valdez). And we STILL save $10 million by not signing Rollins and Madson that we can spend on something else.

And before you say something like “well if Brown fails and Cuddyer end up replacing him, how are we going to be able to use him as an injury replacement?” Well, ask yourself this question… Do you rather trot this year’s version of Brown out there or Wilson Valdez/Ben Francisco? I know I myself would still choose Brown.

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

@LTG,

Btw, $20 million is 4 wins. You don’t think the ability to buy 4 more wins somewhere else would make up for whatever inadequacy a Dom/Mayberry combo will have over a Mayberry/Vic combo? And we haven’t even discussed the gain of going from Rollins to Ramirez.

By JC on Nov 3, 2011

I think your opinion of Brown and Mayberry (in the immediate future, i.e. next season) is just higher than mine. Like I said, there has been nothing to suggest that Brown will break out next year (I think he will be very good in the future, but will need time to develop). You’re worried about Victorino coming down to earth, but there’s a possibility that Mayberry regresses a little too no? Going into the year with one unproven OF can be fine, but going into the year with two unproven OF is too risky.

And what suggests that Ramirez is an upgrade over Rollins? Rollins had a higher OBP, wOBA, walked more and struck out less last year alone. From 08-11 their OBPs and wOBA are nearly identical but Rollins still walked more and struck out less. And it’s not like Rollins isn’t a good SS anymore.

By Rob SJ on Nov 3, 2011

Phillie697 – bottom line, I don’t think the Phillies are going to put a guy in left field who isn’t catching routine fly balls on a consistent basis, like Brown at AAA in August. You may not see a difference between lack of range and lack of ability to make routine plays, but I think the Phillies do. You can argue that statistically they are wrong, and you might be right, but my point was just that they won’t put him out there if he’s not making those plays. And I stand behind that belief.

By LTG on Nov 3, 2011

Phillie, I think we’ve outlined the disagreement as completely as we can now. You and I disagree on the contributions Vic and Brown will make (and to some extent the benefit of playing Cuddyer at positions where his defense threatens to undermine his offensive contributions). As for Ramirez and Rollins, I thought we agreed that Ramirez is ~4 WAR and Rollins ~3, so Ramirez is 1 WAR better. I project that Vic – Brown will be >1 WAR and you don’t.

As for my confidence in Vic here are the reasons. At his age his power uptick over the last two years should continue, at least for one more year. And last year he combined that improved power with improved discipline at the plate, which led to a career year. His BABIP shows no signs of luck since it was actually slightly lower than career average. These are the reasons I think Vic can reproduce his production from last year for at least one more season.

Lastly, 20 mil is 4 wins if the right players are signed and used properly. What’s the bet that the 20 mil will be used that way? How might it be used to do that? Should it be invested in the bench, relief pitching, another starting pitcher, a new first baseman? (Ooops, scratch that last one. The most obvious opportunity for improvement is foreclosed.)

By hk on Nov 3, 2011

JC: “what suggests that Ramirez is an upgrade over Rollins?”

1. Over the past 3 seasons, Ramirez fWAR > Rollins fWAR.
2. Ramirez is 3 years younger.
3. Ramirez is signed for the next 4 years for a total of $32.5M. Rollins will probably get $20M or more for the next 4 years.

By hk on Nov 3, 2011

Rob SJ,

How many routine balls did Dom Brown drop in LF after he got demoted? I know he had one double-header where he misplayed 3 or 4 balls and struck out in most or all of his 6 AB’s. However, what I don’t know is if there were a lot of other drops and misplays or if they were mostly contained to this one bad day / two bad games.

By hk on Nov 3, 2011

In #3 above, it should say “Rollins will probably get $20M+ more than Ramirez for the next 4 years. I wish I could edit my typos after the fact like ESPN.com allows.

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

@JC,

Ramirez had a higher WAR than Rollins already this past year, and he’s younger. Ramirez projects to be a better player than Rollins going forward. I’m trying to be completely objective here without having any home fan bias. Plus I was going off of the agreement me and LTG had, which is that Ramirez is about one WAR better.

@Rob SJ,

Well if we’re just going off of what is likely to happen, this discussion shouldn’t even happen since RAJ will never trade Vic for Ramirez.

@LTG,

While it’s natural to believe what you think is right and be skeptical of anything you don’t believe is right, automatically assuming everything you argue in your own favor will happen and then automatically assuming the $20 mil won’t be spent effectively isn’t exactly convincing. Everything has risks. Mayberry may not repeat and might suck in CF, Dom may not improve, Vic might regress, and $20 mil might be squandered. Yes, Mayberry/Dom will be more risky than Mayberry/Vic, and the 1 WAR improvement from Rollins to Ramirez might not make up for it, but we can AT LEAST agree that $20 million will buy us some improvements right? Your last paragraph makes it sound like it’s worthless. Hell, $20 million can even buy us another freaking Vic…

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

@LTG,

Also, it’s not just Vic – Brown. Yes in that respect it’ll be way more than 1 WAR, but Mayberry will magically pick up WAR just by moving to CF, assuming he doesn’t suck defensively in CF, which I agree is not a given.

By hk on Nov 3, 2011

Mayberry will also pick up ~1.0 WAR just by ~ doubling his playing time as the Replacement component of WAR is based on plate appearances.

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

Now thinking about the $20 mil I created for the Phillies… What are the chances we offer Dom and the $20 mil (just $20 mil, not $20 mil over the next three years, which is what we’ll save by not signing Rollins/Madson) to the Dodgers and get Kemp? I mean, McCourt needs money right? Heck, I might even do it for $40 mil, LOL.

By JC on Nov 3, 2011

Obviously Ramirez is cheaper and younger but BR War has them about equal for this past season (3.0 WAR for Rollins 2.6 for Ramirez). But my argument has been foiled by WAR when the sample is extended over the past few seasons (3 but not when extended to 4- take that!)

My issue isn’t as much as Ramirez replacing Rollins (though aside from money, I still don’t see it as a tremendous upgrade. Maybe I should have said as much in my previous post) as it is with the OF situation. I tend to agree with LTG that the difference going to Brown and Mayberry will outweigh the slight upgrade to Ramirez.

By Phillie697 on Nov 3, 2011

@JC,

Well, a big part of it is also not having to spend money on Rollins and Madson. $20 mil is a lot of money we don’t have to spend.

Maybe I’m just not as risk-averse as some of you

By JC on Nov 3, 2011

Maybe indeed. I like the idea of Ramirez, I guess I just don’t want trade Shane.

I’ll also agree that it isn’t true that the money would be spent in the wrong way.

By JB Allen on Nov 3, 2011

Phillie – Take some of the savings and sign Aaron Hill. He’s short, feisty, doesn’t draw enough walks, and will be 30 by Opening Day, so RAJ should love him. He won’t cost much, and with Rollins gone, the Phils will need somebody else to not get that swinging for the fences doesn’t always make much sense.

By LTG on Nov 4, 2011

“While it’s natural to believe what you think is right and be skeptical of anything you don’t believe is right, automatically assuming everything you argue in your own favor will happen and then automatically assuming the $20 mil won’t be spent effectively isn’t exactly convincing.” – This strikes me as an unfair characterization. I don’t automatically assume anything, but give reasons for my premisses. Reasonable disagreement is possible even in this realm, and the goal of argumentation within it is not necessarily the production of conviction. And the $20 mil questions were actually questions, not mere rhetoric. (Why is it that sentences that end in question marks are mostly interpreted as rhetorical on the internet?)

“Maybe I’m just not as risk-averse as some of you” – This strikes me as what is behind the disagreement, which I already acknowledged in an earlier post.

By Joe Redden on Nov 4, 2011

This is a little off topic, but still related to Phillies pitching next year. I have an idea for a starter.

Livan Hernandez. He only cost the Nationals 1.5M last year and we could get him for the same price. If we could just trade Blanton away for nothing more than someone eating his contract, which shouldn’t be tot hard if we aren’t asking for anything else, we could have our 4th starter for less than 2M.

Add to that the fact it would open up the money we want to throw Rollins way, we would essentially replace Blanton for 10% of the cost, and get to keep Rollins without adding any costs to the payroll.

Sound good?

By Phillie697 on Nov 5, 2011

Contrary to popular belief, Joe Blanton > Livan Hernandez. No joke. And trading Blanton will be harder than you think.

@JB Allen,

I’m pretty sure RAJ would love to have 5 Aaron Hills if he can, along with 4 Ryan Howards.

By LTG on Nov 5, 2011

Phillie,

I meant to post this earlier but forgot. I would be ecstatic if we could turn that 20 mil into Matt Kemp. And, of course, if that happened I would be ecstatic to make the trade you suggested. (Well, maybe not ecstatic since I would be sad to see Rollins go, and feel some sentiment for Vic.) But now that McCourt is selling the team I suspect the roster is frozen. I figure trading away a player like Kemp would only drive the value of the team down, and the incoming ownership might not need to shed salary. Am I thinking about this right?

By Phillie697 on Nov 5, 2011

@LTG,

Yeah… Getting Kemp is an even bigger pipe dream than trading Vic for Ramirez, $20 mil or no $20 mil, LOL.

By LTG on Nov 5, 2011

It’s my favorite pipe dream tho. And before McCourt announced he would sell, I thought the crazy could happen.