Jimmy Rollins’s Contract Status

Last updated: 10/24, 9:15 a.m.

  • Five years is probably too much for Phils, Scutaro an option?: source. – 10/24

Paul’s Take: Marco Scutaro would certainly be an offensive upgrade from the replacement suitors we know in Wilson Valdez and (gulp) Michael Martinez. Scutaro wasn’t necessarily a factor of Fenway Park, either, as his road OPS is comparable to his home split; it was even higher than his home OPS this year. Scutaro won’t fulfill the needs of people fixated on the decrease in age, but on a one-year deal, he would seem a suitable replacement. At this point, to me, he seems a more suitable replacement for 2012 than Freddy Galvis.

Paul’s Take: While I don’t think he’s going to get five years, I have little doubt that he means business and won’t hesitate to sign elsewhere if the price is right. Hey, this is his last big contract, after all. I don’t think it would be wise to give Jimmy – with a .316 OBP since ’09 – five years. Three makes more sense, given his defense should be worth it.
Some advanced metrics have Rollins showing signs of declining range, partially as a result of injuries and partially, perhaps, as a result of age. It’s difficult to discern between the two right now. Phillies fans are aware of Rollins’s stout defensive abilities, to be sure, but there doesn’t seem to be reason to think a healthy Rollins isn’t still a valuable commodity, even with a slowing bat.

Bill’s Take: I’m with Paul. I’m comfortable giving Rollins three years, even with an option for a fourth, but I get uncomfortable guaranteeing four or more years to a player of Rollins’ caliber. Don’t get me wrong, I find Rollins to be very valuable especially given his position, but he is no Troy Tulowitzki. I do, however, grimace at the thought of going year-to-year with one of the many crummy free agent shortstops around or, worse yet, relying on an unproven Freddy Galvis, who has just one potentially-fluky season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley under his belt. Rollins talked about five years, but that’s what he should do — it’s Negotiating 101. I have a hard time seeing him getting five guaranteed years, and for the Phillies’ sake, I hope I’m right about that.

Leave a Reply

*

15 comments

  1. Jon

    October 12, 2011 11:17 AM

    I can’t help but think that Oakland or SF will offer at least four years, maybe throwing in a fifth year option. It’s also close to his home town, which I think counts a lot for him in particular.

    I see the Phillies offering 3 years with a mutual fourth year option. He said in the presser he wants 5, or 4 with a player option for the 5th. I know it’s just posturing at this point, but I feel like unless the Phillies are pretty darn close to another offer, he’ll follow the highest bidder.

  2. Ken

    October 12, 2011 11:26 AM

    There’s an understandable appeal to have Jimmy retire as a Phillie. 3-4 years might wind up doing that. He even mentioned playing 6 more years during his ramble yesterday, but let’s try to stay real. But from another angle, let’s say Galvis really is destined to be a successful major leaguer.
    You would think if that’s his destiny, he’d be ready by 2014. Or maybe one of the middle infielders they drafted this past year runs a fast path. There might be a point to paying Jimmy 10 mil or more as a 2014 backup, but there also might be a point to trading him in 2 years. Even 3 years might be a lot to committ to him, so you have some flexibility by avoiding the no trade that he might well ask for, and you compromise somewhere else by insisting on that. I figure he’d be pretty tradable in 2 years to a mid season buyer if it was advantageous to move him. This is largely assuming Galvis is the real deal.

  3. Gio

    October 12, 2011 12:33 PM

    Rock and a hard place. The only guy available worthy enough is Reyes, and we won’t get him (boy, that Howard contract feels great now, huh?). I also want Rollins back but a 5-yr guarantee is ridiculous at this stage in his career. But he brings so much more than on-field play. Him not coming back will send a ripple effect both in the lineup and the clubhouse. Rolling the dice on Galvis is scary, and nobody else it out there as far as I know (near Rollins level). So, I predict we’ll make concessions elsewhere – unfortunately that probably means Madson – and guarantee Rollins for 4 years with a mutual 5th and a heavier buyout. But in the end a team, most likely from the bay area, will guarantee five with more money and we’ve seen the last of Rollins in pinstripes. Hopefully all of this happens sooner rather than later so we have enough time to figure out how to plug the enormous hole Rollins departure creates.

  4. Dante

    October 12, 2011 01:04 PM

    San Fran is the threat here – they can certainly offer 5/60. If Boston decides to cut ties with Scutaro, he would not be a terrible fall back option. Since 08, his OBP is 30 points higher than Jimmy’s, he can leadoff, play 2B as well, and is adequate defensively. Downside is he has less pop and less speed, but will cost less than half what Rollins will, even with a 3 year deal for J-Roll. Give him 2/12.

  5. Phillie697

    October 12, 2011 01:28 PM

    Yeah… JRoll has a career UZR rating of 36.4, while Scutaro has a career UZR rating of… *drum roll* -7.6. Yeah, you read that right, negative. They are not even on the same planet when it comes to defense, and you can be sure Scutaro’s offense doesn’t make up for that difference.

    For a team with WS aspirations, you don’t nickel and dime your way in an important position like SS. Give Rollins 3/42 if we must. Still better than 5/60.

  6. Bill Baer

    October 12, 2011 01:37 PM

    The value of one WAR per FanGraphs is about $4.5 million, so if you think he can be a three-win player going forward (like he was on average from 2009-11), then $13.5 annually pays him about market value. Of course, that doesn’t factor in scarcity and other context-related factors, but I would be fine with something like 3/$42M, assuming that is anywhere near reasonable depending on what happens with Jose Reyes and/or what the Giants do at SS otherwise.

  7. Phillie697

    October 12, 2011 01:44 PM

    Maybe we can trade for Hanley Ramirez after his awful year in FL, LOL.

    Gotta love the off-season. Time for dreaming, rofl.

  8. hk

    October 12, 2011 04:08 PM

    While I would be on board with 3 years plus a team option for 2015, I fully expect RAJ to sign Jimmy for 4 years plus an option or even for the 5 years Jimmy wants as Jimmy heads into his age 33 season. After all, RAJ gave Ibanez 3 years (ages 37-39) when all other corner OF’s were getting 2 years, Polanco 3 years (ages 34-36) when I can’t imagine any other team was willing to offer a 3 year deal and Howard 5 years plus an option (ages 32-36 with an option on the age 37 season). If Howard is signed through his age 36 season with an option on his age 37 season, why not Jimmy?

  9. KR

    October 13, 2011 08:22 AM

    You have to hope the Phillies have learned their lesson about making deals 1-2 years too long when Ibanez put up a .289 OBP this year. I would offer 3 years with a vesting option for a 4th year based on PA, and hope Galvis takes over the starting job by 2013. That being said, I think Jimmy is going to follow the money and SF will probably offer 4 guaranteed years and a 5th year option.

  10. DP

    October 13, 2011 08:37 AM

    @KR -

    Agreed. Don’t forget the Moyer and Blanton deals as other examples.

  11. KH

    October 13, 2011 09:55 AM

    He might not get five years guaranteed from another team but I could see some idiot GM offerering him four years with an option for a fight. Even though his skill level has dropped Rollins is a marquee name and all it takes is one idiot GM and he is out of here. I personally am not optimistic.

  12. KH

    October 13, 2011 09:57 AM

    Why not Jimmy HK? How about because RAJ should realise all those deals you mentioned were mistakes by now and he shouldn’t repeat them here.

  13. KH

    October 13, 2011 10:02 AM

    Not to spam posts but I think people are over-reacting to the possibilty of losing Rollins. This team won 102 games. If they make some decent moves elsewhere they will still make the play-offs next year easily. Unless they do something stupid like hand over the job to Freddy Galvis no strings attached losing Jimmy Rollins will not be a catastrophe by any strecth of the imagination. They can probably get an above replacement level shortstop via trade or free agency easily.

  14. hk

    October 13, 2011 10:25 AM

    KH,

    I hope you are correct about RAJ realizing the errors of his ways, but I fear otherwise.

  15. Phillie697

    October 13, 2011 12:19 PM

    @KH,

    If that’s the case why have half of the people on our roster? Why trade for Pence at all? Hell, we don’t even have to give Hamels an extension then; I’m pretty sure we’ll make the playoffs with Doc and Lee just fine.

    The discussion is about maximizing the talent of this team given its present and future resources and outlook. Anyone who is denying the value of JRoll in the present market is just trying to make themselves feel better in case we lose him. He is a valuable asset that can be had by this team, and there aren’t many like him out there. The discussion isn’t whether we will be fine if we lose him; it’s whether he’s worthwhile for us to retain.

Next ArticleThe 2011-12 Compendium