Phillies Dominating, Time to Take It Easy?

by Bill Baer on August 11th, 2011
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 60 Comments »

Much has been written recently about the greatness of the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies. From the historically great starting rotation to the revival of the offense and all of the individual narratives in between, it has been an easy ride. Their lead in the NL East has been no less than four games since July 20 and now sits at 8.5 games.

As the New York Mets will tell you, such a large lead doesn’t mean anything until everyone has been mathematically eliminated. The Mets led the NL East by seven games on September 12, 2007, but went 5-12 over their final 17 games to finish one game behind the Phillies. Similarly, in 2008, the Mets led the NL East by 3.5 games on September 10, but the Mets finished out the season playing .500 baseball while the Phillies went on a hot streak (13-3) to win the division by three games.

You can take nothing for granted in the game of baseball, not even a team as great as the Phillies. However, they are a lock for the playoffs according to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus, the only such team at the moment. Colin Wyers, BP’s Director of Research, says the POR uses…

a computer simulation to play out the rest of the season a couple of thousand of times, using a combination of PECOTA projections and a team’s current-season record to establish an estimate of each team’s quality.

The Braves are projected to take the Wild Card with a 92-70 record. For the Phillies to finish worse than that, they would have to play worse than .333 baseball over their remaining 45 games (15-30). So, while the Phillies haven’t mathematically clinched a playoff berth yet, it would take some incredibly improbable simultaneous occurrences to keep the Phillies from October baseball.

That gives us an interesting scenario: should the Phillies start taking it easy this early in August? They learned the hard way over the last two years just how much of an impact injuries can play on the outcome of a season. Although there are only two players on the disabled list (Joe Blanton, Jose Contreras) and one who could potentially be (Placido Polanco), the threat of an injury is always there for previously-injured players like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Raul Ibanez. And, of course, there are random injuries that can take out otherwise 100% healthy players, like Ryan Howard rounding second base last year during a game against the Washington Nationals.

Similarly, limiting the innings of the aces can help keep their arms fresh for October. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels are on pace for 243, 238, and 231 innings, respectively. Since 2005, only 18 different pitchers have thrown 230 or more innings in a season (Halladay and Lee, of course, are two of those 18). The Phillies, in 2011, could make up rougly 16% of that list. Of those 19 pitchers, Adam Wainwright, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Joe Blanton, and Johan Santana have suffered serious injuries to their throwing arm. Injuries are very hard to predict, but there is a reason why teams have imposed limits on innings in recent years, and it’s why, overall, starters are throwing fewer innings than their predecessors.

Earlier in the season, I was critical of Charlie Manuel for leaving his starters in late in games when the Phillies stood to gain relatively little or even nothing. Leverage Index (LI) shows us the importance of any given situation within a game based on score, inning, out, and base runner states. After one particular start by Lee, I used LI to show how unnecessary his presence on the mound was:

In the fifth inning until he was pulled in the seventh inning, Lee faced sub-1.00 leverage index situations with seven of ten batters, and of course the other three situations were his own doing — a result of his lack of stuff. Going into the seventh, the Phillies were facing four-to-one odds to win the game. Manuel either has a remarkable lack of confidence in his bullpen or was not cognizant of how much he was asking from his starting pitcher.

The average leverage index, for the games in which Phillies starters accrued 110 or more pitches, was 1.04. As the FanGraphs Saber Library explains, an average LI is 1.00, so it isn’t as if these starters are in super-important situations. And, lest we forget, it is May — we are just now arriving at the one-quarter mark.

Even when we look at the peak leverage index, the decision-making isn’t justified. The average max-LI for the 11 110-plus-pitch games is 3.07, with a max of 7.13 in Halladay’s start against the Washington Nationals on April 13. The rest fell under 4.00, with four registering under 2.00. The two most egregious over-uses both involved Halladay: on April 7 against the Mets, when Halladay pitched seven innings as the Phillies won 11-0; and April 19 against the Milwaukee Brewers, when Halladay went six and two-thirds innings as the Phillies lost 9-0.

In this situation, however, rather than looking at LI, we should be looking at the Phillies’ odds of clinching a playoff berth. As discussed above, it is about as close to 100% as mathematically possible without actually being 100%. Thus, any further use reaps the Phillies no rewards and forces the Phillies to take a risk (injury) with each of their players. What if Halladay suffers an arm injury while trying to win a meaningless game on August 14 and cannot pitch in the playoffs? Even if that event has a one percent probability of occurring, the Phillies don’t gain anything the other 99% of the time to make it worth it.

There is the thought that a team going into October with momentum has an edge on the competition. Some teams have rested their players (though not nearly as early as August 11) and then put them back into their normal roles about a week or so before the end of the regular season to get them back into the swing of things, hoping to build up some momentum along the way. The Phillies could follow a similar path: rest their important players between now and, say, September 20 (the start of their final homestand before a six-game road trip), then put everybody back into their normal spots and play out the rest of the season before the NLDS starts on September 30.

Financially, there may be a reason to hesitate pulling the regulars for so long. The Phillies have 12 home games remaining in August and 10 more in September. Will Citizens Bank Park still sell out when the starting lineup consists of Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, Ben Francisco, Brian Schneider, and Kyle Kendrick? If the average person spends $35 at a Phillies game, and their attendance declines from 45,000 to 40,000, then they are losing $175,000 per night. Over 22 home games, that is nearly $4 million dollars, or nearly $1.5 million more than Kendrick won in arbitration back in January.

If fans do show up in the same record numbers, will they stay long enough to pay for parking, consume hot dogs and alcohol, and buy shirts and hats? If attendance declines, or the answer to that question is no (which only the Phillies’ front office can answer based on their own internal research), then the Phillies have to bite the bullet and risk further injury for at least the next month. Otherwise, there is no reason not to give the important guys a well-earned vacation — even if it means finishing with fewer than 100 wins or winning the division by fewer than 10 games.

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  1. 60 Responses to “Phillies Dominating, Time to Take It Easy?”

  2. By leroyquimby on Aug 11, 2011

    What if Halladay suffers an arm injury while trying to win a meaningless game on August 14 and cannot pitch in the playoffs?

    Well, what if a UFO crashes into Citizens Bank Park and we have to play the rest of the year in Lehigh Valley?

  3. By Magowan on Aug 11, 2011

    I think maybe you’ll see a small drop in attendance come September with droves of kids going back to college and public schools, ergo school nights. But sell outs will likely continue.

    Will people not show because MiniMart and Schneider are playing? I doubt it. This shutout streak continued through last summer when we stunk and had names like Castro, Valdez and Sardinha batting 6-7-8.

    As far as fewer innings for SP. Yes, it only makes sense as you showed. I just think that if you have a pitcher shutting down for 6 innings and a big lead, I don’t see why he can’t go out and face hitters for the 3rd time. Work on his book for each batter if he’s trying to. But obvs take him out if he loses his command.

  4. By Robby Bonfire on Aug 11, 2011

    The games in Chicago when Manuel blisterd Halladay in the heat, then left Worley out there to eat up more pitches with an 8-2 lead, are crass examples of this man’s complete disconnect from the basic tenets of how to conserve a team’s stamina for a serious October run. The Phillies could be the best team in baseball, this regular season, and a fast-exist team in October, when the Piper collects his dues.

    It will pain Phillies fans if this team doesn’t get it done this year, however, the fact that Manuel is going into mothballs following this season represents the biggest consolation prize imaginable. I have waited patiently for this imbecile’s departure for so many years I have lost count. Thank you, Lucky Stars, that it is finally on the horizon.

  5. By Robby Bonfire on Aug 11, 2011

    “fast-exit” I meant to say.

  6. By Richard on Aug 11, 2011

    “the fact that Manuel is going into mothballs following this season”

    you presumably missed his contract extension.

    look, dude is a good manager; is he perfect, no, but he’s fine.

  7. By Brad on Aug 11, 2011

    The playoffs are always a crap-shoot. Less talented teams can always get hot and knock off the best team, even teams as great as the Phillies seem to be. I’d rather them go after the franchise record for wins – that’s something that can’t be taken away, no matter what happens in the playoffs.

    Not saying I wouldn’t cut back on the starters pitch counts a bit until about 2 weeks left, and I’d rest anyone who could stand to be healthier. But I’m definitely still playing to win every game.

  8. By Richard on Aug 11, 2011

    Anyway, Bill, I agree the Phillies should give their regulars some much-needed rest, and that there’s no need to push the starting pitching (or main relievers) unduly. On the other hand, these guys do need regular work. Lifting the SPs after 5 innings on a routine basis is likely not a good idea, because that likely doesn’t represent a true full outing for them (unless they are racking up the pitch counts). Likewise, you don’t want to go whole weeks without pitching Madson or Bastardo, but there’s little reason why they should routinely be pitching three days in a row.

    As for starting lineups, I expect we’ll see some judicious subbing, but I doubt there’ll be consistent lineups with all of Francisco, Valdez, Martinez, Schneider (let alone Kendrick) playing at the same time, nor is there any need for it. The regulars want to play, and need to stay sharp, but also need rest.

    I expect, though, that Manuel and the Phillies brass think early August is too early to be thinking this way, and it’s tough to blame them, really.

  9. By Ryan on Aug 11, 2011

    This all makes sense in September when the Phillies can expand the roster. Really, if you are pulling Lee, Halladay, and Hamels now, then you are replacing them with bullpen arms that we will also need in the playoffs. It is kind of a zero-sum game right now.

  10. By Robby Bonfire on Aug 11, 2011

    Yes, I did miss the contract extension story. Thanks, I couldn’t have been more wrong, there. That does it for me, writing off the Phillies right now, and switching focus to the Eagles. The Phillies ownership and the GM are going to pay in spades for this utter, indefensible insanity. Not to mention the fans.

  11. By Richard on Aug 11, 2011

    yeah, they’re really running the team into the ground, at 77-40.

    or, maybe your assessment is just wrong?

  12. By Bill Baer on Aug 11, 2011

    Overreact much?

  13. By olo567 on Aug 11, 2011

    They could give guys a rest without killing their chances of winning games or losing the butts in seats at home. Keep a different regular out of the lineup every game or at least every other game. Use Kendrick in a different spot in the rotation each time around. In other words, you could have Halladay skip a start, then Lee next time around, then Worley, Hamels, Oswalt. Or just pull the guys earlier.

    One problem with giving the rotation a rest is that our bullpen has some young guys who are already overworked. They might need the rest even more. I’d say wait until September when there’s an expanded contingent of arms out there to use in all kinds of situations.

  14. By Bill Baer on Aug 11, 2011

    I like that idea — wait until September call-ups.

  15. By olo567 on Aug 11, 2011

    Robby, don’t be a fool. Manuel doesn’t play by the book on pitch counts, and has made some decisions that make anyone who understands statistics shudder, but to think he doesn’t bring positive value to the franchise is idiocy. Players want to come here to play for him. Good players. That in itself is worth a lot. It’s exactly because he wants to win, but respects his players even if they’re struggling that guys like him. It’s something that can’t be quantified therefore it’s easy to minimize the importance of it, but his decisions pan out more often than they backfire.

  16. By Mike on Aug 11, 2011

    I agree that giving the players more off days and watching the pitchers more closely makes sense. But at the same time they won’t want to rest too much, as there is natural competition to improve statistics, win awards, etc.

    One thing I would like to see in September is Dom Brown getting playing time against both RHP and LHP. With his age Raul could probably use extra rest more than most.

  17. By Scotch Man on Aug 11, 2011

    Two things I’d do down the strech as the inevitable draws near:

    1. 6 man rotation

    2. Sub out players in a blowout, immediately

    3. If ahead, sub out players in the late innings.

    I wouldn’t do too much to break the routine aside from sitting a random everyday player. The Cubs did the “play the scrubs” thing after they clinched in ’08 and went completely cold after that.

  18. By jph89 on Aug 11, 2011

    I would like to see them give Doc, Lee, and Hamels less time. Not a full 6 man rotation, but a 5 man followed by a 6 man. If that makes any sense. Doc, Lee, Vance, Hamels, Oswalt, Doc, Lee, Vance, Hamels, Oswalt, Kendrick. just an extra day off. Also, Utley, J-roll, and Howard, it would be nice to see them sit some more now. Finally, Less Madson/Bastardo, more Herndon/Lidge. If we expect to make any legit run in the playoffs, we need Mad Dog and Bastardo at 100%.

  19. By mratfink on Aug 11, 2011

    i’m going to echo other guys and say wait until september before skipping starts. our key bullpen arms are already close to being overworked and itd be nice if when we start pulling starters early we can put in guys like kyle kendrick or andrew carpenter rather than bastardo and madson. Though this lead gives us plenty of time to keep running lidge out there and extracting as much value as possible from him.
    Also manual has done a little starter subbing already. I noticed howard had a game off recently (which never happens) utley gets the occasional game off, ibanez regularly rests (though that is bc he sucks). I’d imagine if polanco was healthy we’d see rollins getting games off as well.
    I do like the idea of rotating teh starter resting and basically giving one starter a day off every week. I want these guys playing enough to not lose their rhythm but the bare minimum necessary to do that to minimize injury.

  20. By SJHaack on Aug 11, 2011

    Bill,

    I think if there’s one concern that’s unfounded it’s the attendance. Mini Mart played in 21 games in July (Started 18 I believe?), and the sellouts continued. During those games the Phillies went 11-6. Not because of Martinez of course, but just because the Phillies are so good.

    Even starting a spring training lineup the better part of the week, the Phillies have enough star power to bring fans and also win ballgames. People come even when Kendrick is pitching instead of Halladay, they’ll show up to celebrate what could be the best Phillies team ever.

  21. By Bill Baer on Aug 11, 2011

    @ SJHaack

    It might not just be Martinez, though. If the Phillies make it known they will be resting regulars en masse, fans might be less likely to show up for games where they won’t see #TheMan, or CHORCH or SHANF.

    I agree that it is not a huge concern, but it’s something to consider at least.

  22. By Jim Z. on Aug 11, 2011

    The best option is probably to play to win every game remaining in the regular season, but aggressively rest key contributors such as Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, and the to of the rotation. Give each of the key contributors, especially the older guys, at least 1-2 games off every week and sub them out for guys such as Mayberry, or Valdez, or some other bench player that can play that particular position.

    And as someone else also said: immediately pull the starters in blowouts and lop-sided losses and replace them with the scrubs. If you’re winning by more than 7 runs, give some of the bench guys playing time. If you’re losing by more than 7 runs, concede immediately and put all the scrubs in the game and preserve your starters.

    But regardless of what you do on a per-game or per-week basis, play out the season completely and try to secure the franchise record for single-season wins.

  23. By KH on Aug 11, 2011

    Baseball teams never give guys “vactations” for starters. Someone show where a team with a huge lead just started sitting regulars all the time in August. The only thing I think is in order is a couple extra days off here and there more toward the end of the season. Baseball is a game of repetition.

  24. By EddiePinz on Aug 11, 2011

    First off, I hope that Polanco gets the surgery to fix the sports hernia and he will be as healthy as possible. I would start resting regulars now. Ibanez first and foremost, just to allow Mayberry to continue to get ABs. Victorino is going to get some rest when the suspension is upheld. I would sit Utley/Rollins/Howard about a game a week. I would let Pence play to continue to get used to right in CBP and get him some rest in Sept.

    I think the rotation needs to stay as is until September. I would keep the 5 man rotation, even then. Just to keep anyone on a schedule. I also think that Oswalt and Worley still need a regular work load. I would limit Halladay/Hamels/Lee to about 5 innings a start or a set pitch count and back them up with Kendrick and September call ups.

  25. By Matt on Aug 11, 2011

    Look at all the armchair managers. Lets see any one of you go tell Roy Halladay he’s not starting on regular rest. Go tell Hamels to sit when he is vying for a First Cy Young. Everybody is so worried we are going to be this years Seattle Mariners. The other teams that are fighting for a playoff spot, are they resting regulars? So that gives them just as much if not more chance for injury. Its never a good time to let off the pedal. Sorry dont agree with Bill. Its overthinking and fear of failure.

  26. By Sam M. on Aug 11, 2011

    The Eagles are going to completely take over the town come September 11. The Phillies will be a footnote until the NLCS (if they make it). I think the sellout streak ends either way in September.

  27. By bsizzle on Aug 11, 2011

    lol, if we based all our decisions on LI and POR, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, etc would only pitch 150 innings a year.

    I think the lead gives us the luxury of not going overboard with our pitchers and position players, but that’s about it. There’s really nothing you can do to prevent a freak injury, it can happen in the 1st inning, it can happen in the 9th. And if one of our players is a ticking time bomb of injury, I doubt an extra day of rest here and there is going to do much to save them.

  28. By Richard on Aug 11, 2011

    Sam M: very funny

  29. By James on Aug 11, 2011

    Bill there’s another problem with pulling players closer to now rather than the end of the season. This is baseball not basketball or football where the best teams come out on top 8 times out of ten. This is a crazy game with superstition and confidence being a big factor. If you pull these guys while there hot its not a given that they get their good strokes back, or that when they return they’ll be seeing the ball well…don’t mess with whats working dude

  30. By James on Aug 11, 2011

    *Especially for Howard who when not seeing the ball can be atrocious with strikeouts, but when seeing it well can completely carry our team

  31. By Jacob on Aug 11, 2011

    Wait until it is certain that we are in the playoffs, won the division, and possibly won 100 games. Than I’d say it would be time to give the starters rest.

  32. By Phillie697 on Aug 11, 2011

    Personally, I just want to see Dom back up and playing regularly again. Too bad that won’t happen until Sept…

    @Sam M, you must either not live in Philly or are certifiably insane if you think the Eagles are going to make the Phillies irrelevant.

  33. By sean on Aug 11, 2011

    Adam Wainwright, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Joe Blanton, and Johan Santana

    one of these things in not like the other.

    also i just want chase utley to play 100 games since i have a bet he would.

  34. By ty on Aug 11, 2011

    @Robby Bonfire The reason he left Worley out there was to test his arm. and he pitched a complete game. And halladay’s situation was just a freak accident. Manuel knows what he is doing, exactly why they made the playoffs for years straight as the division winners.

  35. By MG on Aug 11, 2011

    Phils have already sold out the rest of the season in terms of tickets. Actual people attending games (and thus driving overall gate receipts) might dip a little bit in Sept if they are playing meaningless games but it would likely to be inconsequential.

    I imagine the extreme heat at times this summer drove down the actual people attending a game than playing a meaningless game in Sept after they have clinched a playoff spot.

  36. By Tom on Aug 11, 2011

    Sean:

    I’m guessing it’s Santana ’cause he’s the only lefty???

  37. By TMC on Aug 11, 2011

    Robby writes: “crass examples of this man’s complete disconnect from the basic tenets of how to conserve a team’s stamina for a serious October run.”

    I mean– you’re aware that they’ve made three consecutive “serious October runs,” right? They were 2 wins away from repeating as World Series champs. He’s no genius, but you’re selling him way short.

  38. By Mike E on Aug 11, 2011

    Better concern trolls, please.
    I like the Sept call-ups and the notion of try outs to give regulars a game here and there to rest. KK spot-starting to give an occasional blow to whomever, also good. Methinks Chollie is way ahead of yous…

  39. By Robby Bonfire on Aug 11, 2011

    This “Troll” is from Ardmore, PA, originally, and EA and Lower Merion H.S. So get off my case, I want to seet the team win as much as anyone else.

  40. By Robby Bonfire on Aug 11, 2011

    My concern is “burn out” and another October flop. Last year this team was light years (five games) the best in the N.L., but came out “flat” and never recovered vs. a much inferior, but better rested Giants team. We all hope something like that will not happen again, but the team is now getting older so that the fatigue factor becomes a more critical factor with each passing year.

  41. By Robby Bonfire on Aug 11, 2011

    ty – I appreciate your input and your position. Let me just add to it that, for me, “a serious run” is not enough. I will settle for nothing short of a World Championship this year, because, good as they are, I think this Phillies team, properly rested, can take out either the Yankees or the Red Sox (Angels, Texas too), quite impressively.

  42. By SJHaack on Aug 11, 2011

    Bill,

    I agree you’d see more than Martinez if something like that happened, but unless you think they’ll be going whole hog and the infield will be Rizzoti, PeteOrrFacts, Galvis and Martinez (which would actually be kind of neat), the regulars are still going to be playing. Giving Ryan Howard “rest” means he only plays 5 days a week instead of 7. Disregarding other criticisms, outside of one freak base + foot he’s been remarkably durable for a 1B.

    The other thing to consider is that when you have a guy like Mayberry as your backup, I kind of WANT him to play. I don’t mind watching him in CF or 1B a couple of times a week. Or LF every day. If you said D’Arnaud is going to be starting his first big league game, I’d want to see it. I don’t think he’s on the 40 man right now, but the point stands.

    The other OTHER thing is actually 2 things. 1) Those games are all but sold out as it is anyway, and could be a day to clinch/a party after potentially clinching and 2) The Phillies have now managed to create an atmosphere that makes people believe no matter who’s in the lineup they can scratch out a win. Ryan Howard with 6 PH HR in 30 career AB does nothing to dissuade that notion.

  43. By COAL HAMLETS on Aug 11, 2011

    I really don’t think it’s a good idea to rest our best players nonstop for the next month, but I WOULD like to see Charlie start mixing in more rest days for the regular, while also ensuring that they play enough to keep from getting rusty. But a few extra days of guys like Mayberry,Schnieder, Francisco, Valdez, and Brown in the starting lineup shouldn’t hurt much if it’s done right. Guys like Jimmy,Chase,Ryan, Chooch,Shane etc. should be given 1-2 days off each week to help keep them rested while also not becoming too comfortable on the bench.

  44. By Mike E on Aug 11, 2011

    What, a person from Upper Darby can’t be wise in mysterious ways? You cut me to the quick, sir! Ten paces at dawn!

  45. By Dynon07 on Aug 11, 2011

    Bill,

    I had a question which relates to this article and the previous article about the Phillies place in history.

    Is there any extreme evidence about any of the other top teams you mentioned in the previous article doing what you are suggesting above. Basically resting most of their top notch players at the end of the season to assist their chances of having better postseason success.

    Secondly is this evidence present for some of the best NL teams of all time? If so would that mean these teams were truly better than the 2011 Phillies? I know the season is not over yet, I was just curious.

  46. By JD on Aug 11, 2011

    Let’s wait until they clinch before any tinkering of the lineup happens. I have no problem with giving guys a day off or 2. I would say no to skipping starts but if you want to pull starters out of games that the Phils have a nice lead against, that’s fine.

  47. By Richard on Aug 11, 2011

    Dude, they didn’t “come out flat” against the Giants (who were not better rested). They just lost. Shit happens.

  48. By ted on Aug 11, 2011

    hahaha robby bonfire.. do philadelphia a favor, and LEAVE… no one will miss your idiotic outbreaks

  49. By TMC on Aug 11, 2011

    Robby– what evidence is there that they lost to the Giants due to fatigue, rather than, say, dozens of other possible causes?

    And how were the Giants, who spent most of the second half either chasing or fighting off the Padres, and who played one more playoff game than the Phillies, better rested?

  50. By NickFromGermantown on Aug 11, 2011

    I wouldn’t worry about attendance drop-off. A lot of people don’t even go for the baseball. They go for the ballpark experience. It’s the beauty of what the Phillies’ management has done with Citizens Bank Park.

    As for the question of rest, I think at this point you limit starting pitchers innings to keep the bullpen sharp. Give starting position players some days off, but no more than 1-2 per week.

  51. By Jack on Aug 12, 2011

    not 4 years ago, the mets gave back 7 games in september.

    show me the metric that says if you play scrubs, you’re still a 100 pct lock to make the playoffs. don’t those predictors assume you’ll play the way you’ve been playing?

    you ride your horses and play your game. if something happens, it happens.

  52. By Dave on Aug 12, 2011

    My 12 year old self would never have believed that there would be a conversation about resting the Phillies starters in early August.

  53. By George on Aug 12, 2011

    If you have a chance to not just be the best team of the year, or even the best team in franchise history, but a chance to be one of the best NL teams of all time… you have to go for it.

    They should rest regulars slightly more perhaps, and also maybe go for a few less complete games.

    This team is already special but they have a chance to be brought up for the rest of baseball history if they keep doing what they are doing.

    You have to let it ride and hope it works out.

    If they lose in the playoffs but did that, I would still say it was worth the risk.

  54. By hk on Aug 12, 2011

    It seems like the Phils are good enough to find a happy median where they selectively rest their regulars and keep their pitchers’ pitch counts down while still winning the division with ease. That being said, it would be funny if Charlie decides to give it back to the Giants a little by resting some regulars and having Victorino serve his suspension when the Diamondbacks are in town next week.

  55. By Chris on Aug 12, 2011

    @hk
    I was thinking the same thing about fucking with the Giants like that. Unfortunately we’ve got Lee, Worley, Hamels pitching so I feel like even if we did rest Utley, Jimmy, Howard, and Vic served his suspension that we might still win a couple low scoring games by accident.

  56. By Buzzsaw on Aug 12, 2011

    I thought the Phillies problem last year was that the pitchers may have been over-rested

    Halladay pitched only 31 innings in what amounts to a month.

    Mon 9/27 (9 IP)
    (8 days rest)
    Wed 10/ 6 (9 IP)
    (9 days rest)
    Sat 10/16 (7 IP)
    Thu 10/21 (6 IP)

    When he opened against the Giants, he’d pitched once in the previous 18 days.

    Hamels pitched 22 innings over the last month

    Sun 9/26 (5 IP)
    6 days off
    Sun 10/ 3 (2 IP)
    6 days off
    Sun 10/10 (9 IP)
    8 days off
    Tue 10/19 (6 IP)

    Oswalt pitched 25.2 innings over the last month

    Tue 9/28 (5 IP)
    Sun 10/ 3 (1 IP)
    Fri 10/ 8 (5 IP)
    Sun 10/17 (8 IP)
    Wed 10/20 (0.2 IP)
    Sat 10/23 (6.0 IP)

    In the post season, we played only 9 games in 20 days(sweep + travel days). Combined with not aligning the big three to pitch the last weekend, they were not getting their regular work.

    Not lining up the starters to pitch the last weekend combin

  57. By jauer on Aug 12, 2011

    barring the chance that the phils get swept by washington, i will be rooting for arizona in every game the play the phillies

  58. By Phillie697 on Aug 13, 2011

    @Buzzsaw,

    Ah… I don’t think your argument works, because remember, Halladay pitched a NO-HITTER in his first start in the playoffs. Obviously the rest helped. Unless you’re going to argue that the rest somehow helped that first start and then screwed Halladay up later?

  59. By Phillie697 on Aug 13, 2011

    Just to add, there isn’t really much you can do about extended period of time between starts in the post-season… That’s out of the team’s control. They could make sure the pitchers stay sharp with their regiment, but not much else they can do.

  60. By jauer on Aug 14, 2011

    When the Mets were 7 games up in September, their run differential was only +71. The Phillies will double that number with a month’s headstart. Comparing the two teams is useless, especially since they will still be regularly trotting out Lee Halladay Hamels Oswalt while they rest the “regulars.”

    Also, the Mets didn’t have a buffer zone between the Phillies and the wild card in 2007. Even if the Phillies collapsed and the Braves caught them (1 in 1000 chance?), the Phils are currently 13.5 games ahead in the wild card standings.

  61. By Drew on Aug 27, 2011

    Look we shouldn’t be pulling these guys, Halladay is a horse, Lee is a horse, Oswalt needs the work to fine tune for the playoffs. Hamels is the only guy you can say we might need to back off of. And as for Charlie Manuel, he won the WS in ’08, dude can manage and the best part is he’s a baseball guy who care about what has mattered in baseball since its inception, he’s not a sabermatrician who doesn’t win anything, he gets that RBI and HR matter more than WAR

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