The Lost Art of Patience

by Paul Boye on July 28th, 2011
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 83 Comments »

To read a similar take on Dom Brown with an eye to the future, check out Bill’s article on ESPN Sweet Spot.

I’ve finally had enough.

I took it rather well for a few days, this incessant whisper from a fraction of the fanbase that Domonic Brown is not just trade bait, but should be dealt. The reasoning seems varied, but it seems to boil down to the notion that Domonic Brown is not now – nor will he ever be – better than Hunter Pence, and, as such, the two should be swapped.

It seems that, if one area of this very good Phillies club should be upgraded, it’s the offense. With Carlos Beltran off the market as a new member of the San Francisco Giants, the best possible upgrade is no longer available. Enter Pence, whose skillset and rumored availability put him squarely in the second tier of available outfield bats. Pence is enjoying a productive season, hitting .307/.354/.467 with 11 HR in 426 plate appearances entering Thursday. Pros and cons of his ability and season stats abound, but this post is not about Pence.

No, this post is about the perception of Brown. Brown, a man who entered his first Major League game to a standing ovation and entered the 2011 season as a near-consensus top five prospect in all of Minor League baseball, now finds himself rumored to be on the trading block. None of us knows for sure if he’s really being dangled, thanks to the airtight nature of the Phillies’ front office, but the very thought of giving up so soon being embraced so easily by some fans discourages me.

Dom Brown, he of the 23 years and 328 days of age, is not Jason Heyward. He has not emerged as a regular starter and set the world on fire. What he has done, though, is accomplish far more than perception seems to be giving him credit for.

  • .251/.343/.406 season slash. The AVG is 5th among NL rookies, the OBP is 3rd and the SLG is 4th.
  • 5 HR in 201 PA. Not great, but when you consider Brown’s hamate injury in the spring and the fact that Pence has 11 HR in 426 PA, it doesn’t seem so bad.
  • Be team-controlled. This isn’t so much an accomplishment as it is a characteristic. Brown will not qualify as a Super Two after the 2012 season, so his arbitration years won’t start until after 2013. He will make in the neighborhood of $450k in the meantime.

That last point stick as the most salient, to me. Across last year and this one, Brown has played just 87 games – little more than half of one season – and his production is on par with what Raul Ibanez has done in twice the playing time. Since that’s not so flattering these days, I’ll say instead that Brown’s .749 OPS ranks 4th among Phillies regulars (behind Victorino, Utley and Howard) and 5th overall (also trails Mayberry). His walk rate is the highest on the team, and he has nearly as many walks as he does strikeouts.

All of this, and he’s cheap for two more full seasons. Cheap, on a team with the following players entering arbitration or hitting free agency between now and the winter of 2012: Roy Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Cole Hamels. Some of the players named are just money off the books, but they’ll need replacing. Is it that much of an upgrade to add Hunter Pence for two seasons – likely at upward of $20 million combined in that time – than have Brown for five more? Sure, this team has a “window,” but it sure isn’t closing when this season is over. Is it worth tying up that much money in a good-not-great player when better-to-star caliber players will need replacing or new contracts?

Better yet, why are some so quick to give up on Brown as a lost cause? If anything, Philadelphia should be somewhat accustomed to slow starts. Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and even Mike Schmidt started their Philly careers without blowing everybody away, yet with patience, coaching and experience, they are turned into excellent players. Brown has the potential to be the next Philly star, better than the guy he’s rumored to possibly be traded for. If only we’re given the chance to see it happen.

  1. 83 Responses to “The Lost Art of Patience”

  2. By dan on Jul 28, 2011

    it’s not the hitting that is a problem its his fielding and baseball IQ-the guy seems lost on the bases and is even worse in the outfield. i’ll take his hitting, but he is costing us games by his awful fielding.

  3. By Paul Boye on Jul 28, 2011

    That assumes that A) he can’t get any better and B) he’s the worst offender in both categories. I find both premises very, very, very difficult to believe.

  4. By Paul Boye on Jul 28, 2011

    This is to say nothing of the fact that Brown’s only been playing baseball full-time for five and a half years. He was set to go to college as a football player.

  5. By andy on Jul 28, 2011

    Can I just say I was going to rant this EXACT blog post (albeit less eloquently) to my buddies tonight, and there you had to go and write it. Well done. I’ll email instead.

  6. By Chris on Jul 28, 2011

    What is he “being lost on the bases” based off of? According to UBR, he’s been worth 1.4 runs above average running the bases (not including SB and CS), so how exactly is he lost? And while his fielding so far obviously leaves a lot to be desired, HE’S 23 YEARS OLD. His defense is no worse than Ibanez, and with his speed it’s really not hard to imagine him becoming a good to great fielder with more MLB coaching.

  7. By Ed on Jul 28, 2011

    As a Cardinal fan, this reminds me a lot of the Colby Easmus situation, which has now been resolved by trading him for a rental starter and some spare change. Sigh…

  8. By Evan on Jul 28, 2011

    Brown has been better than I expect at the plate for his rookie year. His fielding leaves a lot to be desired, but he projects to be one of the best hitters for the Phillies as he matures. He is one of the only everyday guys that the Phils have locked up long term for a bargain price. Anyone who seriously thinks Dom should be traded is a moron and a jackass. Hold Brown tight and spend the money on bigger long term needs.

    Also, considering his speed and his fantastically powerful hose, I’d say Dom could even mature into an average if not above average defensive OF.

  9. By Giving_Chase on Jul 28, 2011

    Why didn’t you bring up his recent success? .427 OBP in July.

  10. By hk on Jul 28, 2011

    What’s more, Hunter Pence has been awful himself defensively and offensively, Pence has been a huge beneficiary of luck (.367 BABIP) and a better hitter’s park than CBP. If they are trading for Pence, one would hope it would be to sit Ibanez on the bench. It is amazing how everyone is quick to point out Dom’s fielding miscues, but perfectly willing to overlook another missed grounder by Howard last night and Ibanez throwing to the wrong base and enabling runners to move up in consecutive games on Sunday and Monday.

  11. By FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011

    “Better yet, why are some so quick to give up on Brown as a lost cause?”

    As Dave Chappelle would say, “It’s ’cause he’s black, see.”

    I’m just joking.

    I think.

  12. By Jeff G. on Jul 28, 2011

    One of those yahoos on DNL just predicted the Phils would trade Worley and Brown for “Hunter Spence.”

  13. By Phillie697 on Jul 28, 2011

    Has there really been that much rumor about trading Brown? Besides some of the idiotic Phillies fans (or some of the Philadelphia sports fans in general), who I’ve ALWAYS been annoyed by, I haven’t read ANYWHERE that the Phillies have even entertained offers to trade Dom. I was shocked to even hear that we offered Cosart AND Singleton for Pence. Hell, if the Astros don’t want them, let’s offer the same deal to the White Sox for Quentin, or hell just offer Singleton and another mid-level prospect for Cuddyer.

  14. By Css228 on Jul 28, 2011

    Thank you Bill. Thank you.

  15. By hunterfan on Jul 28, 2011

    1) If Brown starts to hit better and stops making egregious errors in the outfield, the fans will love him. Fans cheer results, not potential. (And, I would argue, that’s the way it should be.) In other words, worrying about the average fans perception of Dom Brown is a moot point, since if he is shortly about to reach his potential, they’ll love him.

    2) What the fans think should have absolutely no effect on the FO.

  16. By Css228 on Jul 28, 2011

    My bad Paul, I just assumed Bill had written this as I’m still used to the days where he was the only one. Anyway. Thank you Paul.

  17. By kc on Jul 28, 2011

    Bill, I totally agree. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have Pence in red, but burning away the cost-controlled part of the team in the process would merely be a hindrance. I can part with some of the single A talent, but both Worley and Brown look to be an integral part of transitioning this team into the next generation (class, bracket, age, what have you.)

    While this is more anecdotal than anything, but to me, Brown seems too eager to impress, almost as if he’s fighting to win the support of the fanbase. I can’t blame him, with the constant barrage of statements about how much of a disappointment he is, it has to put unnecessary pressure on the guy.

    We need to give him another year, he is too young to write off as a failure. Better yet, he shows patience at the plate and displaying a maturity and eagerness to succeed that goes a lot further than the raw talent he has always been hyped on. As mentioned before, he has a solid walk rate, and I’m sure his power will return after the effects of the hamate injury drift away.

    Dominic Brown will grow into the position, it takes time. If it didn’t, I’m pretty sure we’d have a lot more 23 year old phenoms taking over the MLB.

    I apologize for the tirade, but philly.com is driving me nuts with all of the message boards calling to chase Brown out of Philly like he’s a leper.

  18. By kc on Jul 28, 2011

    My apologies as well, Paul, I made the same assumption.

    Great article.

  19. By Bill Baer on Jul 28, 2011

    I should enlarge the font for the authors. Meant to do that a few weeks ago, actually.

  20. By Phillie697 on Jul 28, 2011

    What I REALLY can’t believe, is that there are fans out there advocating that we should get rid of a .334 wOBA/109 wRC+ guy while simultaneously thinking that Polanco and his .309 wOBA/89(!!!) wRC+ is a deserving all-star who is an integral part of this team… Don’t give me wrong, I love me some Polanco defense, but it just makes no sense to me.

  21. By wxdavid on Jul 28, 2011

    I will attmept to make a counter argument here because I know in the end is going to happen is probably the same thing that happened over at the TheGoodPhight. It resulted in posters which I never had any contact with before in calling me “moronic” “absurd” “sad’ and “pathetic” .

    Two different posters directly called me an Idot for 1) having an opinion that was different from theirs and 2) trying to state it .

    Not surprisingly I got kind of upset. Then later on I was told ” oh well you see when that poster was you calling an idiot … he was actually referring to your argument”….

    yeah right…

    I am bringing this up because even though Paul means well it seems clear to me that the same sort of diatribe and vitriol will be unleashed here. FuquaManuel has even hinted that some of the reaction to Dominic Brown has racial in its orientation. ( thanks for the cheap racist shot there FM. We are all real impressed by that…)

    The issue is not whether not I or others HATE Dominic Brown. But what is most bothersome about this entire essay is that it strongly implies that anybody who holds a different opinion is a Moron.

    I have little doubt that the odds are pretty good that Dominic Brown is one day going to become a good baseball player. Perhaps he may even become a great baseball player.

    He may also become the Wes Chamberlian.. a point which of course seems to have escaped ” Brown is going to be the Mike schmidt ” crowd.

    It’s not a matter of HATING .

    It is not a matter of refusing to give him enough time to develop.

    And it is NOT a matter of demanding he is good / great RIGHT NOW

    Here is the real issue. In the likely event that the 2011 Phillies meet up with the 2011 Giants we do NOT stand a good chance of beating them.

    We need that BIG RH bat.
    In order to get that you have trade for it.

    Thats its.

    You may not agree with this particular point of view. Which is fine but that doesn’t mean that I HATE Dominic Brown. It just means that I am being realistic because IF
    …. IF ….we are to get somebody like Pence or Quentin we need to trade something for something.

    Now you may not thimk we need to make a move. Okay. Great.

    But surely it is agreed upon that IF …IF one needs to make a trade you have to have something to trade “with”…no?

    The fact of the matter is that the Phillies are not going to see Zito in the NLCS as a starter anymore than than the Giants are going to see Kendrick.

    The Wednesday, July 27 game against the Giants was a pretty darn close replica of game 3 of the 2010 NLCS. In the bottom the seventh inning they gave us 5 outs with back to back errors. We got one run out of it.

    One.

    I have not mentioned the error made by Dominic Brown because I don’t care about it. I do NOT ” want” to trade him because he suck or is not going to amount any thing or because he is terrible in the field or because I am “angry” at him.

    sure those reasons are being used over at Philly.com or on WIP. But that doesnt mean I am using those reasons

    I wish Paul would instead deal with these specific points as opposed to trying to paint anybody who supports the trade for big powerful right hinted that as some sort of moron.

    Of course I recognize that there is no guarantee. It is quite possible that ATL could beat SF so we never see them. But we play very well against ATL so I am NOT worried about then.

    SO….If we were to have Pence or Quentin in the lineup we could still of course lose in the post season to the Giants.

    But the question in my mind is pretty simple. Do the 2011 Phillies have a better chance of beating the Giants in the NLCS with Brown or Pence in the line up?

    The only rational answer is yes.

  22. By hk on Jul 28, 2011

    Phillie697, as long as there are media members in this town who believe that Ryan Howard’s contract extension was a good signing, there will be sheep, I mean fans, who will believe just about anything about their team. Believe it or not, there are even people in this town who believe that Michael Martinez should bat in the 2-hole when he’s in the lineup.

  23. By Bill Baer on Jul 28, 2011

    @ wxdavid

    Can you provide evidence for these claims?

    Here is the real issue. In the likely event that the 2011 Phillies meet up with the 2011 Giants we do NOT stand a good chance of beating them.

    We need that BIG RH bat.
    In order to get that you have trade for it.

    I don’t see a reason why the Phillies — who lead the NL East, a tougher division than the NL West, by five games and 5.5 games better than the Giants — would be underdogs against the Giants. Note that last year’s NLCS and the three-game set about to finish total nine games and thus is not a sufficient sample size. The Phillies have slightly better starting pitching, a slightly worse bullpen, and better offense and base running (defense is debatable, depending on the metrics used).

    Secondly, why do the Phillies…

    A) Need a bat at all
    B) Need a bat that is right-handed
    C) Need that RH bat to be an impact player, as opposed to a cheap fringe player like Reed Johnson or Ty Wigginton

    I agree with you that a lot of the sentiment towards the anti-Brown camp are rife with strawman arguments and ad hominem attacks, but I still have not seen a good logical argument that makes trading him seem like a reasonable option.

  24. By DomTheFuture on Jul 28, 2011

    As you can tell from my name, i am a dom brown fan. I think he’s the next great phillie. so while hes having a tough time now, i really think he’s gonna be awesome, way better than pence anyway. whats been really disappointing about this whole situation is the shortsightedness of many phillie fans. many are so blinded that theyre willing to trade someone who was untouchable in the halladay, lee, and oswalt deals for.. hunter pence!! Is pence on any of there levels? not at all. why put the future in jeopardy by selling our best prospect in a bad market.

    in the end, i want the phils to compete for the championship every year, not just the next few. so while many of these fans want to go all in for the next 2-3 years. I say develop minor league talent, strike when necessary (like we did for halladay, lee, and oswalt), and be consistently good. It’s time we became world series threats every year, but we need to develop our minor league talent.

  25. By wxdavid on Jul 28, 2011

    BILL…..

    what does the NL east being a tougher DIV have to do with anything?

    Yes I think the Phillies are a better team than SF. But again IMO we seem mto have a problem beating this team.

    here is my evidence.. such as it is

    we lost the 2010 NLCS to them.
    and Just like the NLCS of 2010 again we were unable to get the BIG hit in these 2 games vs Cain and Timmy .

    Rollins, Utley and Howard were a combined 2-23 with 1 bb and 3 k’s the past two days.

    We lost last night night and tonight.
    Its been a LOOONG time since we lost a series and lost 2 games in a row.

    and when we finally do its against them.

    KK and Philly pitching gave up 6 hits 2 walks (1 error) yet they managed to get 4 runs.

    Timmy and SF pitchers gave up 6 hits 4 BB and 1 error we got 1 run out of it.

  26. By Bill Baer on Jul 28, 2011

    Does that prove anything, though? Nine games is not at all a reliable sample size. Losing to them sucks, but they’re a good team and sometimes good teams lose to other good teams. Sometimes they only win 3 games out of 9 against good teams. Such is baseball. It’s not a reason to mortgage the future.

  27. By Pete on Jul 28, 2011

    1. The situation of “Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and even Mike Schmidt start[ing] their Philly careers without blowing everybody away” was different because those guys broke in on non-playoff teams or teams with marginal playoff hopes, so the Phillies had more room to be patient. This team is going to the playoffs. That changes the analysis quite a bit. Not saying it changes the ultimate conclusion, but it’s not a fair comparison.

    2. I have concerns about Dom Brown being the starting right fielder on a World Series favorite. I’m not concerned about what he’ll do at the plate (maybe get a big hit, maybe not, just like everyone else) or how good he’ll be five years from now (I hope he’ll end up being a better player than Pence), but I am concerned about what he’ll do in the field tonight, tomorrow and especially in October. And don’t tell me he is as good as (or no worse than) Ibanez in the outfield. Sure, Ibanez has no range and no arm, but on balance, I prefer that over Brown’s penchant to implode in spectacular fashion. In other words, you can survive Ibanez’s meh defense, but at this point in Brown’s career, he is a ticking time bomb waiting to clear the bases for the other team on an error. Dom’s defense frightens me in a Game 7 more than anyone else on the team. Certainly not a reason to trade him, but a reason to get a right-handed bat and sacrifice some of Dom’s at bats in the short run.

    3. Bill, yes the last 9 games against SF are a small sample size, but we can still notice the trend in those games. For whatever reason, over those 9 games, SF’s weaker offense has been better able to scratch out runs against our ace staff than vice versa.

    4. No one asked, but Chase looks more ridiculous than most at the plate against Lincecum.

  28. By Ring the Bell on Jul 29, 2011

    Bill,
    Finally the voice of reason.

  29. By Bill Baer on Jul 29, 2011

    @ Pete

    Check out the 2006 Cardinals roster.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2006.shtml

    They won with So Taguchi in left field. I think the Phillies can win with Dom Brown in right.

    Heck, look at last year’s Giants outfield:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2010.shtml

  30. By Jon on Jul 29, 2011

    Pete, the problem is that the trend you’re “noticing” is not a trend that’s in any way predictive of the future.

    There are righthanded bats for whom I’d be willing to move Brown, but they have names like Bautista and Kemp, not Pence and Quentin.

  31. By Pete on Jul 29, 2011

    Bill,

    Try this one on for size. Right now, I would take Pat Burrell or So Taguchi as a late inning defensive replacement for Dom Brown in a playoff game. Because they at least have the sense to know what they can and cannot do out there and won’t overreach. Dom is like a colt taking his first steps. It’s kind of hilarious, at least until your post-season is on the line.

    Jon,

    I understand that this nine game trend is not predictive of the future. Until of course it does become predictive of the future if it were to continue. All predictive trends start as non-predictive trends, right? But even at the non-predictive phase, there’s no reason to shut our eyes and hum tunelessly, waiting until it gets to that predictive phase. Let’s just say that I’ve got my eye on this non-predictive trend where the objectively inferior team is on a nice little run against the better team. (On a side note, before the next PHI-SF series I will be going to a temple and making offerings for regression.)

    And I agree that neither Pence or Quentin are worth moving Brown for. I’m like everyone else crazy excited about the potential of a 23-year-old with a good eye at the plate and all that athleticism (I close my eyes and hum tunelessly whenever anyone mentions the long swing). I suppose the point I was making in a roundabout way was that I would like to keep Dom AND get a decent right handed bat, but unlike earlier in the season, I’m now okay with sacrificing some of Dom’s at bats down the stretch to get that right hander in the line up. (Again, that’s mostly based on the defensive anti-disaster upgrade once the games become critical.)

  32. By hk on Jul 29, 2011

    From the ESPN recap of the Astros’ July 25 game vs. STL:

    The Astros’ Hunter Pence suffered his second fielding gaffe in as many games, handing Nick Punto a gift RBI triple in the second after misjudging a routine fly, appearing to lose the ball in the lights and then stumbling.

    Not that the small sample size of fielding gaffes in consecutive days should be that big of a deal, but imagine the outcry here if the Phillies had traded for Pence and he made those gaffes in PHI in a pennant race instead of for HOU in irrelevant ones. The point being fans in this town are quick to rip Dom Brown for his fielding gaffes and give passes to Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez for theirs. Since Brown’s production has exceeded Ibanez’s, if the Phils trade for Hunter Pence, it should be with prospects so that they can remove Ibanez, not Brown from the lineup. Of course, we all know that Charlie would not do this…

  33. By JB Allen on Jul 29, 2011

    Bill, I looked over the Phillies’ splits over at baseball-reference.com, and they don’t look so hot against lefties. Not an enormous sample size, I know, but it seems like a right handed bat makes sense.

    I agree that trading Dom is a BAD move. If the Phillies can get Pence without trading Brown, wouldn’t that make sense? Pence, Victorino and Brown for 2011-2012 seems like a pretty solid OF to me.

    Has there been any discussion about Wigginton? He wouldn’t cost much, can sort of play first, second and third, and can hit a little, as well.

  34. By bernie on Jul 29, 2011

    While both Paul and wxdavid bring up some fair points, neither offers a particularly compelling argument for whether Brown should stay or go (meaning facts). Paul seems to think that just by saying Brown will be great, we should keep him, and if you disagree, you aren’t paying attention. wxdavid implies that Pence virtually guarantees another WFC, and Brown will never be that good. One of them may be right, but not a lot of data to make a determination. I lean towards keeping Brown because he’s young and cheap in an aging, highly paid line-up, and Pence is solid, but on the tail end of his prime (which was never great anyway) – not a big upgrade over what we have.

    If getting Pence for Brown guaranteed a championship, I’d say go for it, but there is no way to make that leap. Pence isn’t that big of a rh power threat, and actually hits righties better anyway (.318, 480 slg% against righties, 281/448 against lefties – Mayberry has a better slugging % against lefties – 458). The Phils have a bunch of those guys already (the Indians are the team that should be going after him, not the Phils). Brown has the chance (based upon minor league numbers, shear athleticism) to be a star, and appears to have a team oriented personality.

    The Phils will make the playoffs – after that, it’s anyone’s guess, regardless of Brown/Pence (if we lose in the playoffs, it’s because 1-5 aren’t hitting, tough to blame it on the bottom of the line-up). Why spend $20M for 1-1/2 yrs on a guy that really won’t make a big difference, especially when you have a cheap player with a lot of potential? Mayberry is a very good defender, keep him around over Gload/Francisco if Brown in the late innings gives you the sweats.

    I don’t really care how much the Phils spend, but I know the fo does. Save the money for a bigger need.

  35. By Sylvy on Jul 29, 2011

    For all those who want to bring fielding into the argument that Brown is overrated/not that great/whatever you want to say, consider this: If you were a before 2007, you may remember a few Phillies young guys who were also below average at best with the glove. Ryan Howard was miserable at first, Chase Utley was also a below average at best defensive second baseman and Shane Victorino was often criticized by scouts and coaches for his poor routes on balls hit to the outfield. All three of those players logged lots of extra hours improving their craft. Victorino has since won a gold glove, Chase is considered a very good defensive player and Howard is vastly improved, and is now a reliable fielder as compared to the liability he was not too long ago.

    Pence is having a career year, his BABIP is ridiculously high while Brown’s is much lower than the league average (last time I checked the numbers). Also, if you think adding Pence or anybody else will win a WS you’re crazy. The Phils struggle against one team and one team only; that team just happens to be the Giants (who I can not figure out how they win baseball games let alone WS titles, their lineup is just miserable even with Posey in it.) Even if you have Pence – who strikes out a lot – unless he goes 4 for 4 every game against the Giants with 4 home runs he’s not going to change anything. To think what he does in his at bats will improve the performance of the rest of lineup is stupid.

  36. By Paul Boye on Jul 29, 2011

    I feel a bit disappointed in myself that any sort of condescending tone emerged from between the lines of this little essay of mine. I hate it when people do that to other fans, and was hoping I could avoid that tone while still being firm in my wording. Apologies if this failed for you.

    I do not think that those who wish to trade Brown either don’t pay attention/aren’t “real fans”/whatever have you. I simply meant to outline reasons – reasons I believed to be compelling – why Brown is the better option in right field moving forward. Know that I meant no condescension, and none was implied.

  37. By zfg on Jul 29, 2011

    Why do we need a big RH bat against SF? Their two best starters and their best reliever are right handed.

  38. By wxdavid on Jul 29, 2011

    BILL… since you asked here are some more facts that SHOULD bother you and tell you WHY the Phillies are NOT likely to beat the Giants with this CURRENT line up…

    Including last year’s NLCS, they are 9-13 against the Giants since the start of the 2009 season.

    Last night fifth straight regular-season start where Timmy L pitched at least six innings while holding the Phillies to two or fewer runs with six or more strikeouts.

    In his last six regular-season starts, he has held them to six earned runs, 27 hits, 10 walks and 49 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings.

    2010 NLCS Timmy L pitched seven innings and allowed three runs, including a 4-3 victory in Game 1 and a 4-2 loss in Game 5. He also recorded one out in relief in the Giants’ 3-2, series-clinching win in Game 6.

    the 3 Beltran has faced the most on the Phillies staff are Halladay, Hamels, and Ryan Madson: he is batting a .333 with 9 HRs and 21 RBIs against them.

    Phillies batted .216 against the Giants in last year’s NLCS.

    In these last 2 games Phillies batted a combined .156 against Cain & Lincecum

    Phillies got only two hits in five innings against the SF bullpen.

  39. By Jauer on Jul 29, 2011

    Are todd jones and felix rodriguez still available?

  40. By Richard on Jul 29, 2011

    Paul, you were not being condescending. Some people feel condescended to when they are being. Your post was just fine.

    wxdavid: the posters at The Good Phight did not jump on you or others for disagreeing, but for having poor arguments, consistently failing to listen to better arguments, and generally being impervious to reason or logic. And then being rude about it.

    Hunter Pence is terrible against the best starters in the league.

  41. By bernie on Jul 29, 2011

    Paul, not sure if that was directed at my comments (being self absorbed, I feel everything is), but I think I could have worded my response better. I agree 100% in keeping Brown, but was looking for that 1 nugget that really showed “why” (mainly, because I have not been able to articulate it on my own) – I didn’t see it. I was hoping there is a comparable player that turned into a stud, but had an unconventional swing, looked a little lost early in his career. “Player X had the same minor league stats, similar start, and was an 8 time all star”. I think my expectations were unreasonably high.

  42. By Richard on Jul 29, 2011

    ugh, should be “Some people feel condescended to when they are NOT being”, etc

  43. By bill on Jul 29, 2011

    Not quite sure why people want to replace the Brown when he is basically better than Ibanez at everything. Hits better, runs the bases better, and places better defense. If they’re going to make a trade, sit Ibanez.

  44. By tanksfurnutin on Jul 29, 2011

    Since we are cherry picking stats for pitchers against hitters. I’m NOT sure that Pence’s 0.176 batting average against Cain & Lincecum is GONNA get help this lineup much.

  45. By Sylvy on Jul 29, 2011

    Hahaha everybody should read Jauer’s post. You just made my day. Thank you my friend.

  46. By hk on Jul 29, 2011

    wxdavid,

    Hunter Pence has a .219 / .269 / .356 triple slash line in 78 PA’s against all current SF pitchers and a .136 / .174 / .182 line in 23 PA’s against Lincecum. Pence’s line is a little better in 13 PA’s vs. Cain because he has taken Cain yard.

    Again, understanding that these are small sample sizes and not necessarily predictive of future performance, but similar to the cherry-picked SSS stats that you provided, how is it that Hunter Pence will help the Phils against Lincecum and Cain?

  47. By hk on Jul 29, 2011

    Oops, just saw that tanksfurnutin beat me to it.

  48. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    Look here’s the biggest thing. Hunter Pence quite frankly isn’t good enough to waste a premium talent on acquiring. If you weren’t willing to trade Brown for Lee, Halladay, or Oswalt then why are you willing to trade him for a good player who will have marginal impact at most. The way I see trades like this are they are great for assuring you make the playoffs. If you’re an NL Central team or someone trying to secure their division then these trades make sense. It’s a seize the now maneuver. However, if you’re the Phillies, who should make the playoffs barring any 1964 type collapse *knock on wood* then Pence is at most a luxury. Once you’re in the playoffs anything can happen to anyone. All you have to do is get hot for two weeks. I think few would disagree with me when I say our worst team of the last three years won the World Series while our best team didn’t even get past the NLCS. Matter of fact is the team with the best record wins the World Series only 19% of the time. Pence at best probably adds 1-2% to our chances to win it all. Is it worth essentially guaranteeing our window to win closes in 3-4 years in order to add 1-2% chance to this year? Some say yes, but I don’t think that these prospects and young players (especially Brown) are worth giving up for a guy like Pence who quite frankly is overvalued and probably will never play better than he has so far this season. If this is Pence’s ceiling and we trade a guy like Brown with 5+ years of team control for Pence’s 1.5 years its ultimately likely to be at best overpaying and at worst watching this era’s Darryl Strawberry playing in Houston (most likely somewhere in between). The main point is why buy into an overvalued commodity like Pence when the return on price will never be worse. If you are willing to trade Brown go after someone like Eithier, Kemp, or quite frankly Bourn who is the best outfielder on the Astros. It’s not that I don’t like Pence, I just don’t like the price.

  49. By wxdavid on Jul 29, 2011

    RICHARD
    lying doesnt become you. You are full of crap.

    I had two posters…one in the game day thread on wed (Justin F) and one in taco pal thread wed night which DIRECTLY called me “sad” “pathetic” and “an idiot”.

    Not my arguments. DIRECTLY at a me.
    And Richard NOTHING was done about that.

    NOTHING.

    and despite my emails to them… NONE of the moderators there have explained to me WHY unprovoked attacks on me are perfectly OK but it is wrong for me to react.

  50. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    My first instinct reading wxdavid’s latest post was to pull up Pence’s numbers against SF/Lincecum. Glad someone else did it. There is a reason why we do poorly against Lincecum wxdavid… Because he’s GOOD. Pence isn’t going to solve him magically, and evidence shows he hasn’t yet. Last time I checked, we’ve got pretty good pitchers too.

    I see Brown as potentially developing into Ryan Braun. Good hitter, good runner, terrible defense. Seriously, you want to trade a potential Ryan Braun for a… Hunter Pence? Really?

  51. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    Sigh, now I finally read something about how Dom is being talked about in a trade for Pence… Now I am officially depressed. Say it ain’t so, RAJ…

  52. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    Phillie697 – I see Brown as too athletic to play terrible defense. The kid’s got good range and is really just making rookie mistakes out there. The mistake he made Wednesday he overran the ball. It happens.
    To Everyone – I do think (granted its a small sample size) that Brown is trying too hard to impress the home crowd and its causing him not to play as well at home. I’m not going to draw any decisive conclusions about it, but it might be an issue to look out for. His batting splits are .219/.309/.406 at home while he’s .280/.372/.390. His OPS is almost 50 points higher on the road. I’ll admit it could be something else as well. Brown’s BABIP is about .80 points higher on the road. I just think that the common factor between the struggles at the plate and the fielding miscues is that they continually seem to happen in front of the home fans. Maybe its just selection bias at my part. But at the same time, he might just be pressing like any rookie expected to be an instant savior on a World Series contender might. Just realize that Brown is .2 WAR replacement right now. Ibanez is -1.2. Francisco is -.1. The only in house corner outfielder option with more WAR than Brown is Mayberry at 1.1. He’s earned the right to play everyday at this point and see if he can’t get in a rhythm. Its not fair to expect Brown to be Jason Heyward. Heck, Heyward isn’t Heyward this year. IF we can get Pence cheaply fine. Let’s not lose our minds over normal rookie struggles and overpay for Pence. If we have to, we might as well run a Mayberry, Victorino, Brown outfield out there the rest of the year. Let’s see if it works. Better than putting the walking corpse that is Ibanez in left every day (love him, but he’s just not an everyday player anymore). I know I’ve been ranting so I’m going to stop at this point. I just don’t get when Hunter Pence became the superhero that’s going to lift our offense to greatness (up from the 4+ runs per game since Utley came back)

  53. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    Please RAJ don’t

  54. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    Actually why aren’t we considering Upton at all?

  55. By Dustin on Jul 29, 2011

    Blah, yeah, SI and ESPN are both reporting Brown’s name has been brought into it. Wade could be the worst GM ever if he doesn’t pull the trigger now.

  56. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    I would have rather traded Cosart AND Singleton for Beltran at this point. At least we’d keep Brown for next year, plus any way you slice it, Beltran > Pence this year, by far. What’s the point of getting a player with team control by trading away another player with (more) team control, when the future projection of both players are essentially equal with Brown having more upside?

  57. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    @Css228, because Upton is terrible? Plus the Rays seem to not want to trade him for cheap.

  58. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    If Brown is traded for Pence, I will officially jump off the RAJ bandwagon and consider him just another GM. With the Howard contract and trading away Brown, I might as well stop watching Phillies baseball from 2015-2020.

  59. By Matty B. on Jul 29, 2011

    I wouldn’t trade Brown for Pence straight up, let alone with other guys included.

  60. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    @ Phillie697 – Price is more reasonable than Pence and argument can be made Pence is no better than Upton whose also 2 years younger

  61. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    What we need to do is flood the message boards now that Brown is in the mix and talk about how terrible that would be. Obviously RAJ is listening to the bozos who are crying to trade Brown for Pence.

  62. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    @Css228 – Yeah, except we want help THIS year as well. Upton is terrible THIS year. If we aren’t looking at this year, why make a trade? Brown > Pence or Upton in 2012 or 2013.

  63. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    Oh not saying trade Brown at all. I’m saying that Upton can help us now (get Ibanez out of playing everyday) and we might be able to keep Brown in the process

  64. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    I’d say offer Cosart and Singleton to the Twins for Cuddyar and see if they bite. Cuddyar is better than Pence anyway, and we can probably even sign him for less than what Pence will get in arbitration.

  65. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    And btw, if two days ago someone said let’s offer Cosart and Singleton for Cuddyar, I would have told him he’s crazy. Yet here we are… RAJ is absolutely nuts, and he’s affecting my sanity.

  66. By CP on Jul 29, 2011

    According to ESPN: “The reason for that: The Phillies initially offered their two best prospects, pitcher Jarred Cosart and first baseman Jonathan Singleton, and were told that wasn’t enough. The Phillies then offered to include their right fielder, Domonic Brown. But the Astros, according to one team that spoke with them, would prefer to spin Brown elsewhere for multiple prospects than take him themselves.”

    Are you serious? I hope the Phillies don’t make a terrible mistake.

  67. By LarryCosgrove on Jul 29, 2011

    While I agree that the Phillies have issues with the Giants, and will be underdogs against them in the playoffs, I think it is a dumb move to trade away Domonic Brown for either Hunter Pence or B.J. Upton.

    Pence is not a star, whatever his average. He is the kind of everyday player who puts up decent (not fantastic) averages, while fans more or less ignore him. As for Upton, he is a head case without the ambition to make things work. You can have all of the physical assets and skills to be a dominating player, and still not get there. That is how you describe B.J.

    Salary wise, it makes no sense to mess with our line-up now. Vance Worley is one of those workaday pitchers who will complement the other four quite well. Domonic Brown (sorry Dave) is going to be a very good player, but not a great one. He will have a couple of “great” years like Werth had, probably some good ones too. I suspect that he will grow enough to help the Phillies this season and certainly next. But trading either for a righty bat that might or might not produce, and NOT electrify the fans, is not good business.

    If the Phillies can trade other prospects for a borderline great, but older, player with a righty stance, more power to them. I am just saying that we cannot improve the team now. That should have been done pre-season after a year when the bats largely fell silent.

  68. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    At this point, I say go trade for Francoeur. Above average outfield defense, decent bat, mashes left-handed hitting… BEST of all, don’t need to trade Brown.

    I can’t believe I just advocated trading for Francoeur…

  69. By DomTheFuture on Jul 29, 2011

    phillie697, francoeur turned down more money from the phils this offseason to go play for the royals, so you might say the feeling is mutual.

    i hope we get in on quintin. i hear the white sox are setting up to trade him this winter, but if we give them a good enough offer im sure they’ll trade him. plus he’s a better impact bat than pence. Quintin can carry the offense on a good night, pence is just a contributor. plus hes much cheaper (no brown and probably keep cosart or singleton)

  70. By Css228 on Jul 29, 2011

    OUR LONG CITYWIDE NIGHTMARE MAY BE OVER. http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/97053010701713409

  71. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    Watch us find out Monday morning that it was Houston who put the Dom Brown rumors out there in the first place, causing me to age 10 years in the process.

  72. By LTG on Jul 29, 2011

    Did someone mention Upton? Have you looked at his stats recently?

  73. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    My preference now is Quentin > Cuddyer > Francoeur > Ludwick. In fact, I would only want Ludwick if we’re getting him as part of a combo deal for Adams/Bell. Charlie’s loyalty to Ibanez or not, Ludwick actually hits right-handed pitching worse than Ibanez, so Ludwick would strictly be a platoon.

  74. By Mike B. on Jul 29, 2011

    @LarryCosgrove: good points about Upton; however, his talent makes him pretty intriguing. Too bad the Rays are asking too high a price for him, b/c he strikes me as a guy who could benefit immensely from being in a locker room like the Phillies’. It’s one thing to be unmotivated when you play in Tampa; it’s another to remain that way when you have to look guys like Jimmy Rollins, Roy Halladay and Chase Utley in the face every day.

  75. By Taco on Jul 29, 2011

    If the rumors are true, I don’t know who is more stupid, the Phillies for offering Brown for Pence, or the Astros for rejecting that offer

  76. By Dustin on Jul 29, 2011

    Trade could have been worse.

  77. By Eric on Jul 29, 2011

    Pence is out of the Astros game. And Dom Brown is still in the lineup. Sweet!!!!

  78. By feeox on Jul 29, 2011

    Pence and now Howard have been pulled from their games…connecting dots.

  79. By feeox on Jul 29, 2011

    …Halladay too!

  80. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    Ouch, Cosart, Singleton, AND 2 other prospects. This is a steep price, but seeing as how we didn’t trade Brown, I think I can live with it… Maybe.

    Now, let’s hope Charlie sits Ibanez more often than Brown.

  81. By Matty B. on Jul 29, 2011

    Bleh.

  82. By wxdavid on Jul 29, 2011

    thats a steep price? …. um NO it isnt .

  83. By wxdavid on Jul 29, 2011

    LARRY… Pence has good Number on a CRAPPY astros team. You seem to arguing that even though the phillies are vastly better team than Astros… that will have no impact Pence’s stats.

    Sorry I dont follow that reasoning.

  84. By Phillie697 on Jul 29, 2011

    Yeah it’ll impact his stats, the stats that don’t matter, like RBIs and runs. Minute Maid Park is actually a better hitter’s park than CBP.

    Well, I guess there is one VERY minor improvement to his hitting over the rest of the season… He won’t have to face the Phillies pitchers in Houston’s Sept. 3-game series with the Phillies.

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