Hamels Scare Should Provide A Lesson

by Bill Baer on June 15th, 2011
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 56 Comments »

I don’t brag about being right often; I prefer to let words speak for themselves. But I want to bring up the topic of unnecessary overuse of the starting pitching again to reinforce a point, because it’s very important* — at least, I think it is. Several times this year, Charlie Manuel has been criticized on this blog for some questionable decisions regarding the pitching staff. He redeemed himself recently, but I once again took umbrage with a Manuel decision during last night’s game against the Florida Marlins.

* Important inasmuch as anything about baseball can be deemed important.

The start of the game was delayed an hour and 15 minutes due to rain, meaning starters Cole Hamels and Chris Volstad had to make sure they stayed loose enough to take the mound later than they expected. Hamels was brilliant, holding the Marlins to one run and three hits through seven innings. Of the 99 pitches he threw, 17 of them caused batters to swing and miss (17 percent, a season-high), according to Brooks Baseball. Overall, he struck out six and walked one, while lowering his ERA to 2.49 and earning his ninth victory of the season.

Along with Hamels’ stellar performance came a surge of offense. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Domonic Brown combined for five home runs. The Phillies scored in every inning except the second and eighth. After the seventh, the Phillies were up 9-1. FanGraphs gave them a 0.3 percent chance to lose the game. The game was so over that the Marlins hadn’t faced a situation with a leverage index greater than 0.65 since the top of the fourth inning, when Logan Morrison led off with the score at 4-1.

Situations like that — eighth inning, up by eight runs — are why you have David Herndon on your roster. It is the typical spot for a mop-up reliever. In fact, if the Phillies had a slightly larger lead, using an infielder to pitch (ahem, Wilson Valdez) would have been justified.

A few weeks ago, I joined Spike Eskin and Chris Johnson on “What’s the Word?” on Phillies 24/7 HD radio. (You can listen to the entire segment here.) At the time, I had written two consecutive articles criticizing Manuel, so that was the basis of much of the discussion that morning. They asked for my thoughts on the risk-reward of pulling a pitcher too soon, to which I said, “I think you always err on the side of safety.”

Manuel did not err on the side of safety last night, as he sent Hamels back out to the mound for the eighth inning, to cinch that last 0.3 percent. On most nights, Hamels gets through the inning with little effort, and I look like a grouch on Twitter for whining about it. Unfortunately, the lack of caution last night came back to bite the Phillies. After walking Wes Helms to lead off the eighth, Hamels conferred with catcher Carlos Ruiz, then left the game with what would later be diagnosed as tightness in the middle of his back.

The good news is that Hamels is confident that he will make his next start — it is not a serious injury. It easily could have been, though, and it is a lesson to be learned for Manuel and anyone out there in the “rub some dirt on it” crowd. There is no reason to take unnecessary risks in mid-June with a division lead, and certainly not in the eighth inning of a game in which your team leads by eight runs.

Andrew Carnegie once said, “The wise man puts all his eggs in one basket and watches the basket.” The Phillies, who are paying a combined $67 million to their Opening Day starting rotation (40 percent of the team’s payroll), would be wise to watch their basket closely.

Hamels photo courtesy Ted Berg’s amazing “Embarrassing photos of Cole Hamels” gallery.

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  1. 56 Responses to “Hamels Scare Should Provide A Lesson”

  2. By leroyquimby on Jun 15, 2011

    7IP, 99 pitches…That’s overuse?

  3. By Ned on Jun 15, 2011

    with a double header tomorrow? worth saving the bullpen in that situation.

  4. By Gaël on Jun 15, 2011

    The point is that every single pitch comes with a risk of injury, however small it is. More pitches means more risk. If you’re up 8 runs in the 8th, do you really need to send what’s arguably your best starter to close out the game? The bullpen isn’t that bad; they tried really hard to blow a 7-run lead against the Cubs last week, and couldn’t do so. There’s absolutely no reason to have Hamels pitch a meaningless inning there, unless you’re in love with counting stats (I love CG shutouts as much as the next guy, but I’d rather have Hamels not risk an injury).

    Furthermore, if you make Hamels go out and start the 8th while on 99 (or 95) pitches, he’s likely to end up throwing upwards of 110 pitches. Still not the end of the world, but why do that when you really, really don’t need to?

  5. By Ned on Jun 15, 2011

    see my above comment

  6. By Dan on Jun 15, 2011

    Why not condition him to throw more pitches? I understand the risks of having a pitcher throw more innings, and in this case I wouldn’t have minded him coming out. However, if you always err on the side of “safety” (it’s not necessarily safer, just more cautious) then you end up conditioning your pitcher to throw fewer innings. If he only ever throws 6-7 innings, then he might not be physically capable of throwing 9 when you really need him to.

    Being “safe” definitely has its merits and I do not fault you for having this opinion. I am just hoping you can also see the merits of letting pitchers pitch. How awesome would it be to see another pitcher finally throw in upwards of 200 pitches in a game?

  7. By Brian on Jun 15, 2011

    Hamels is the first guy to speak up if he feels he is pushing himself. Unlike some other guys on the roster (Halladay, Lee) who have to be dragged away kicking and screaming, Hamels is not a guy I take as taking unnecessary risk. Bullpens can get overused, too. So, there is a balance there.

  8. By Ryan on Jun 15, 2011

    This piece is just plain wrong. What are the Phillies playing today? A double header. Who are the Phillies starting the first game? Kyle “I’m probably not lasting more than five innings” Kendrick. Why not try to save your bullpen arms yesterday, when it is highly likely that you will need a lot of bullpen help today.

    Charlie was wise to try to save his bullpen arms for tomorrow when: 1)Cole Hamels probably wanted to go out there in the eighth 2) His pitch count wasn’t exorbitant 3) Cole Hamels has shown no signs of fatigue and was basically mowing people down at that point.

    Before we go crazy about the overuse of starters, let’s keep things in perspective. If Hamels gets 33 starts this year, he is on pace for about 230 innings. Yes, that is a career high, but not by much. But if you can’t expect that many innings from a guy like Hamels, then you can never expect him to be a #1 starter.

    Bill, I enjoy your writing, and I will continue to visit your site. I know you often question Charlie’s decision making process. We all question it, and he makes decisions that justify those questions. However, this type of nitpicking (and complaining) is just getting old.

  9. By Richard on Jun 15, 2011

    It’s just not that cut-and-dried, no matter how much you want to make it seem like it is. Bullpen management and when to pull the starter always has to do with the games before and after. As Ned points out, there is a double-header today. And then the game the next day is an afternoon game. Four games in 48 hours. You have no idea what kind of bullpen usage you’re going to need. With Hamels absolutely cruising like that, I have no trouble with the decision to leave him in. I also would have had no trouble taking him out to start the 8th. These are things the manager has to weigh, and it’s by no means obvious Manuel was doing anything wrong there.

    And, in fact, rather than “the lack of caution last night [coming] back to bite the Phillies”, it sounds like Hamels’ back tightened on the bench, and then he pitched to the first batter and realized he should probably come out.

    If Hamels had been throwing a no-hitter would you have taken him out after 7? What about Halladay’s post-season no-hitter? Was that ok? It was 4-0! Surely the Phillies WE was pretty impressive at that point, no doubt Madson or Lidge could have finished the Reds off just fine. (Or, better example, the division clincher, a 2-hit shutout; it was 8-0!)

  10. By Jim on Jun 15, 2011

    Saving the bullpen to pick up the pieces after the inevitable Kendrick performance (3.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER) this afternoon is an understandable goal. As Bill mentioned though, there was a rain delay of over an hour. What is a reasonable estimate of the additional workload on Hamels (and Volstad) last night from keeping loose and ready to go during that time? Is it on the order of an extra 20 pitches thrown? I really have no idea what pitchers do to “keep loose” for over an hour but I would think it has a nontrivial impact on the number of pitches/innings they can handle during the game.

  11. By Anton on Jun 15, 2011

    They had get as much as possible out of him with today’s double header. His pitch count was low and Hamels has thrown complete games before, so there was no reason to think there was any risk more than usual.

  12. By GM-Carson on Jun 15, 2011

    Brian Gordon of the Iron Pigs opted out of his contract and signed on with the Yankees. That sucks because he was absolutely dominate.

    12 G, 9 GS, 5-0, 1.14 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 55.1 IP, 7:56 BB:K.

    4-8 at the plate with a HR.

    He’s a converted outfielder with 119 minor league homeruns and a .275 average and .781 OPS.

    Seriously, this dude could have pitched long relief and been a bat off the bench. Sure as hell a lot more of a threat than Michael Martinez.

    By the way- Screw Michael Martinez.

  13. By bernie on Jun 15, 2011

    I would agree with the save the pen faction if it was Sept and a tight race. In June, risking your 2nd best starter – no chance. I would much rather lose Kendrick’s start because a lack of fresh arms in the pen vs lose Hamels to the dl. If I’m not mistaken, the Phils pen has the least mileage of any in the league – should be well rested.

    Charlie’s positives outweigh his negatives, but he is only a step above Dusty Baker in managing the pitching staff. The two guys who seem to do a good job with it are Bochy and Maddon, but like the Phils, they have solid starters, which takes a lot of the guesswork out of it. What managers do a good job of weighing wins vs long term staff health?

  14. By Richard on Jun 15, 2011

    On the other hand, I just saw that Hamels had apparently mentioned some stiffness to Manuel before going out for the 8th, which, if true, changes everything.

    But to follow-up on the “save the pen” idea, in reply to bernie, above. It’s not just about whether the Phillies lose Kendrick’s start. Obviously, yes, if it’s just a question of losing that start vs. losing Hamels for any length of time, yes, it’s a no-brainer. But the point is Kendrick is not an inning-eater by any stretch of the imagination. At absolute best they’d get 6 innings from him, more likely 5, easily 3 or 4 if he’s getting hit hard. So then you have multiple bullpen innings in the first game of a double-header, with 2 more games in the next 24 hours. Granted, those games are with Halladay and Lee, so it should be fine. But the point is you need to have guys available.

  15. By Pete on Jun 15, 2011

    Great photo of Cole by the way – looking very Hollywood right there.

  16. By Phylan on Jun 15, 2011

    You can “save the pen” and still have a guy like Herndon go 2 innings. It’s not like he is some vital piece, at least right now. He is a mop up guy. Even with a doubleheader, they can miss him for a day and live.

  17. By LTG on Jun 15, 2011

    I have to admit I reacted as Bill did when I realized Hamels was going to pitch the eighth. Herndon’s job is to pitch those last two innings when the game is all but cinched. It is a great luxury to lift a dominant starter before his 100th pitch.

    But let’s analyze the double header scenario with Herndon pitching two innings. Is Herndon unavailable today? He shouldn’t be. He hasn’t pitched that much recently (or ever) and he has pitched back-to-back nights in the past, which included a multi-inning outing. Perhaps using him last night means he can only pitch in one of the games today, but that is fine since Halladay is pitching the second game. Perhaps we ought to worry about extra innings. Well, we still have Baez rested and if we are really concerned about extras we can bring someone up from AAA. I guess they won’t bring Worley back yet because they want him to get more work down there, but what about Carpenter? His numbers look good but I have no idea what the scouts think of his performance.

    This analysis makes me think that the save-the-bullpen argument to defend Charlie’s decision is not a strong one. Perhaps it explains Charlie’s decision but it does not defend it.

  18. By Jeff T on Jun 15, 2011

    I don’t think last night was a problem (unless Cole did complain about an ailment before the 8th). Pitch counts are generally arbitrary and there is no reason to pull a starter after 100 pitches if he is feeling good. If Cole had thrown 120+ then there would be an issue. And as mentioned in a few posts before, we do have a DH today with KK starting one of them so bullpen economy is to be taken into account. While I am not an excercise physiologist, the fact that it was a middle back strain as opposed to a shoulder/elbow problem. This very well could be a problem that was unrelated to the number of pitches he threw and may just as easily have happened in any inning.

  19. By Ned on Jun 15, 2011

    seriously guys? havent we already seen one 19 inning game this year? as cool as it is to see a position player pitch,its not a goal. you need to have arms available in the bullpen in case of situations like that.

  20. By Buck Mathis on Jun 15, 2011

    If he stayed in and completed the game you would be praising him instead of pointing fingers at the manager. He could strain his back on an off day just as easily as any game situation. Why don’t we just put the pitchers in a dress and have them pitch underhand? It’s like buying a new car, but not driving it because you don’t want to put any miles on it. Let the players play!

  21. By Chris on Jun 15, 2011

    Classic Cole…proving Bill right, stirring up trouble, and looking fantastic the whole time.

  22. By Moose on Jun 15, 2011

    All this doubleheader talk is nonsense. Yeah you have a double header the next day? So? You have pitchers (Herndon, Baez, maybe Contreras) who can go multiple innings. If you need to dip into your bullpen early go to one of those three. Run them to the ground. They are mediocre relief pitchers who can be found anywhere (including the Phillies’ own system!) for pretty cheap. Hamels is an elite, young, lefty pitcher. Don’t screw around with that. Be more incautious with the easier-to-be-replaced, not-as-valuable pieces

  23. By Rob on Jun 15, 2011

    Pitching has an inherent risk to it since it is an inherently unnatural motion. Back tightness could have happened in the 7th or the 4th, and the fact of the matter is that to make Cole a horse like Halladay or Lee- he’s gotta throw. I don’t care so much about saving the bullpen, it’s more about Hamels learning to pitch deep into games as consistently as Doc. Injuries happen, they’re part of the game…99 pitches isn’t enough to make this a controversy.

  24. By Phylan on Jun 15, 2011

    Hamels has no problem pitching deep into games, at all. Why is it important that he do so in a blowout, after an irregular warm up schedule?

  25. By hk on Jun 15, 2011

    Sending Cole out for an extra inning to “save the bullpen for the double-header” is absurd if that was Charlie’s reasoning. The bullpen is well rested. On Sunday, Stutes threw 10 pitches and Madson threw 17 and the Phils were off on Monday. Having Herndon pitch one or two innings on Tuesday should have no impact on the upcoming three games in 36 hours. Even if Kendrick craps the bed and only lasts a few innings in the opener, most of the pen has not pitched since Saturday or even prior to Saturday and should be well rested to get through the Marlins series. In addition, there’s a AAA team an hour away with an off day today that could provide an extra arm if needed for the nightcap.

  26. By Robb G on Jun 15, 2011

    There is no way that 7 innings is overuse, espically when you have kyle kendrick pitching today, who is shaky to say the least. Hamels is turning into an absolute ace this year, he has 4 pitches, excellent control and pretty good velocity. I think the last thing he is missing is consistent stanima, which is something he is gaining with each start. If you can get 7-8 innings from 3 out of 5 starters in the playoffs you will dominate. I think it’s smart to make your roatation fit that mold you will have no problem winning

  27. By LTG on Jun 15, 2011

    I am very perplexed by two claims made here.

    First, that the 100 pitch threshold is arbitrary if the pitcher feels good. To reply to this, I think Bill has previously presented evidence that injury rate rises significantly after the 100 pitch threshold. And pitchers (and athletes generally) are not usually the best at judging their own physical states in the midst of a competition. At any rate, we would have to consult evidence before accepting this claim given that baseball people treat 100 pitches as a significant threshold.

    Second, that a back strain/soreness is not related to pitching effort. This is just patently false. Any exercise will wear down your body. The weakness due to fatigue increases the chances that you will misuse the muscles. Since just about every athletic motion starts from and is stabilized by the torso, the back is vulnerable to injury in almost every case of fatigue. To claim that a back strain could happen on an off day misses the point. Of course, lots of freak injuries can happen any day. We are concerned with the probability of injury, which is significantly higher in situations of fatigue. Baseball is like poker. Winning baseball takes talent but it also requires optimizing your probabilities of success and this includes balancing performance and likelihood of injury. (And the appeals to philistine masculinity such as “dress” and “underhand” are not arguments but ignorance unmasked.)

  28. By hk on Jun 15, 2011

    Rob,

    Other than his bad 1st start of the season, Cole has thrown 95 IP in 13 starts (an average of > 7 IP per start). He’s a horse. However, adding another inning in a blowout neither makes him a horse nor makes sense.

  29. By Tim M. on Jun 15, 2011

    With 4 games to play within a 48 hour period, you better believe Manuel wants his starters to go as far as they can. Are we so far removed from reading the numerous articles that Manuel was overworking his bullpen, specifically Contreras? If Manuel heeded to all of the contradictory opinions, he won’t have anyone to go to but Wilson! Just give the ball to Wilson and its a wrap.

  30. By LTG on Jun 15, 2011

    @Robb G,

    No one here has claimed that 7 innings is overuse (for one, innings is not the correct measure; two, the pitch count was ~95 after the 7th). The claim is that Hamels should not have started the 8th because it was a blow out and we didn’t need him this time (whereas, we have needed and will need him in the 8th of close games). He has thrown fewer than 7 innings only 3 times this year (out of 14 starts, 7.1 IP/GS excluding his first start); he usually throws between 100-110 pitches; and has thrown 126 and 113. Moreover, he finishes strong (Innings 7-9: 2 ER, 17.0 IP, 7.5 K/BB). On what planet does he need to work on consistent stamina? So I echo Phylan’s question, why did Hamels need to pitch into the 8th in a blowout?

  31. By Jon on Jun 15, 2011

    Hamels was under 100 pitches and the rate he was going, retiring 17? in a row, he was expected to have an easy 12 pitch 8th. he was expected to leave the 8th with under 120 pitches which is fair. also, they have double header wednesday so they were obviously planning on saving their bullpen which makes sense. I understand herndon is perfect for this role also, but it wasnt a stupid decision to let a smokin hot cole hamels thrown under 120 pitches.

  32. By Rob on Jun 15, 2011

    I don’t think it was important to send him out again, but at the same time…I don’t think it was necessarilly important to shut him down. I’ll be the first to agree with LTG that pitching absolutely wears you down, but a back strain truly can happen at any time. Cole had been sharp, didn’t show any troubling signs, so I imagine the thought was send him out to mop up the 8th and then use Herndon or Baez in the 9th. Any trouble he got into in the 8th, he would have been out of there. I don’t think that’s a flawed thought process.

    Cole has been an absolute beast this season, so you guys saying that he had pitched enough already are right. I think my point was more that the more you do that, the more engrained it is to just expect it from yourself.

    Most importantly, I don’t think this is really a big deal at all. He threw a great game, 99 pitches, and got a little tight at the end. Cholly and Dubee shouldn’t be held responsible for the back, sh*t just happens.

  33. By Trevor on Jun 15, 2011

    I have to agree that I was shocked to find Cole was coming out for the 8th inning. If it was 2-1 or 3-1, I’d understand. We were destroying Florida at that point though. What a scare! I remember Tom McCarthy mentioning about if Lee, Halladay and Hamels all stay healthy they have a chance to all get 200 K’s. Almost jinxed the whole thing!

    On another note, I wanted to bring up the fact that Howard ended up getting his first error of the year last night. I watch almost every game and I’m embarrassed to say that I hadn’t realized it. What do you guys think about Howard’s chances for a Gold Glove if he continues his performance defensively?

  34. By KH on Jun 15, 2011

    A back injury to me has almost nothing do with being in a game too long.

  35. By Buck Mathis on Jun 15, 2011

    How is it that none of us, myself included, are not managing a pro baseball team? We obviously know so much more about it than the guys in the dugout now.

  36. By LTG on Jun 15, 2011

    @KH,

    Are you offering an expert opinion based on medical training or experience with back injuries?

  37. By Rob on Jun 15, 2011

    @Buck Mathis

    Well, I’m pretty sure everyone on this site had the opportunity to be a head coach in the MLB, at least five or six times. I just felt like going to school and getting a job would be much more exciting and prestigious :) .

  38. By Scott G on Jun 15, 2011

    1st, when speaking about conditioning and arm strength/endurance, innings pitched is just absurd. You could throw 85 pitches in 9 innings or 115 in 6. Focus on pitches thrown.

    2nd, why not throw Herndon (or someone similar) in there last night in the 8th with the large lead and the intention of him finishing the game? You can always send him down today and call up a new player if you deem he can’t go again today, right?

    I get the point of wanting fresh arms for a double header, but you can always call up a minor leaguer for the day. Halladay is pitching the 2nd of the double header, so that should alleviate some concern of an early exit.

  39. By Bill Baer on Jun 15, 2011

    This is why decisions should be made objectively. If we “saved the bullpen for Kendrick”, they’d be doing a lot of sitting around today. Six innings of one-run ball…

    By the way, the logic of the “let Hamels pitch the 8th” crowd seems to be that it’s more important to save the arms of Herndon et. al. than the best left-handed starting pitcher in baseball. Call me crazy, but I disagree.

  40. By Jonny on Jun 15, 2011

    in 1974 Nolan Ryan threw 259 pitches in 12 innings.

    Tim Wakefield threw 172 pitches vs. Atlanta in 1993

    Charlie saw this and laughs at your assertion Bill. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but your perception of “too many pitches” and Charlie’s are two very different animals. That’s all I’m saying.

  41. By Bill Baer on Jun 15, 2011

    I’m not sure you guys actually read the article. I didn’t say Hamels threw too many pitches. In fact, his pitch count was fine.

    My problem was that any pitches he threw after the seventh were highly unnecessary. Why risk the arm of the best lefty in baseball when you’re already 99.7% to win? It makes no sense; using Hamels in the eighth and ninth is completely superfluous, and there is no counter-argument to that.

  42. By Css228 on Jun 15, 2011

    @Bill, well there is the whole if anyone on our staff is going to give up an 8 run lead its probably Herndon, but other than that you’re right.

  43. By Spree on Jun 15, 2011

    I believe a number of you have said the pitch count wasn’t the issue last night. Only that Hamels was needlessly asked to pitch the 8th inning. Why not any problems with him pitching the 7th inning? Score was 8-1 so it wasn’t a high leverage situation. Every additional pitch could have caused an injury. Could have used Herndon for 3 innings and gave him a save. Wouldn’t have been able to use him in the next 3 games but you could swap him for a pitcher from AAA.

    For that matter why no outrage for Hamels pitching the 6th inning? Score was 6-1. Plenty of room there.

    I personally don’t see a problem with Hamels going out to pitch the 8th unless he already felt a tight back. I also see a valid point that having him pitch the 8th inning was not necessary and the chance of an injury was greater than zero.

    I do have an issue that all of you that are against Hamels pitching the 8th don’t seem to have any issues for Hamels pitching the 6th or 7th. Personally it seems kind of silly to pull a starting pitcher that is cruising along after the 5th but if you’re going to make the arguments that have been made…

    Why risk the arm of the best lefty in baseball when you’re already 98% to win?

  44. By Brad on Jun 15, 2011

    Bill is right: this is about risk management, not conditioning or toughness. With an 8-run lead and six outs to go against the Marlins, I’d even let Romero pitch to a couple of righties before sending Cole back out there.

    The question about sending Cole out for the seventh is a valid one, worth debating. The risk goes up as the game goes along, so you have to make your choices (or, rather, Charlie does), but by the eigth inning, the answer to the question is much more obvious.

  45. By Bill Baer on Jun 15, 2011

    @ Spree

    I’m actually not against pulling him in the 6th or 7th, but baby steps. Baby steps. :)

  46. By Jonny on Jun 15, 2011

    “unnecessary overuse of the starting pitching again”

    I don’t know, it sounds like he threw too many pitches in your opinion. Which is fine, because I think the same thing at times. I was only trying to point out that Charlie is old school, and he more than likely thinks pitchers these days are really babied compared to the past he knew. I’d say Charlie likes to keep the Pitchers in longer than us wippersnappers would agree with, and we’ll have this hanging around until the inevitable injury does happen, then we can all say “I told you so.” But I don’t really think it’ll be 100 % true. I guess with salaries going to the moon for good SP’s there should be more babying of them too. I don’t think you’re wrong, But Chuck might, and he’s Boss.

  47. By Bill Baer on Jun 15, 2011

    That’s irrelevant though, since decisions aren’t made correct based on who makes them.

  48. By Jonny on Jun 15, 2011

    I’m sorry, I meant to say “It sounds like you feel the Phills SP’s throw too many pitches.” I am A dunce, FYI.

  49. By Jonny on Jun 15, 2011

    No argument, I’m tired of seeing Halladay pitch complete games when he doesn’t need to as well, I’m afraid he’ll be injured for the post season. I’m not saying Charlie made the best decision. He made the only one that counts.

  50. By I think... on Jun 15, 2011

    By leroyquimby on Jun 15, 2011

    7IP, 99 pitches…That’s overuse?

    ____

    I think if he’d end with a higher pitch count if he wasn’t injured. Finishing off the 8th inning would have given him more pitch count. I think the pitch count on it’s own was okay. But I do agree with the writer that you have to consider that it was a rain delayed game and that Phillies were up by 7? runs in 8th inning. In such situation, I thought it’d made sense for you to pull out your franchise pitcher who’s been dealing with rain delay.

  51. By Josh G on Jun 15, 2011

    @Bill

    Richard Nixon would disagree :)

  52. By LTG on Jun 15, 2011

    Legality and correctness are not the same standard. Nixon never claimed infallibility… although the Pope does. (Sorry, I know, you were just joking.)

  53. By Pete on Jun 15, 2011

    @Bill

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems you are a step away from advocating for having pitchers pitch towards a certain expected win percentage? What percentage would that be? 99%? 95%? X%? Any way you fixed it, it would be a minor revolution in the game if managers started following this line of thinking (and probably the last straw for those people who already hate pitch counts and pitching towards anything other than a win). I can imagine a scenario where the Phillies score 10 runs in the top of the 1st inning and a newly Baer-schooled Charlie Manuel doesn’t send Hamels out to pitch the bottom of the 1st. I am imagining also that Charlie’s decision would be a misinterpretation of the Baer rule, but we better start preparing now to see Charlie muck it up.

  54. By Bill Baer on Jun 16, 2011

    Pete,

    That would be ideal. Risk reduction means more pitchers stay healthy more often. That means you’re replacing players on your Opening Day roster with lesser players less often. That means you win more baseball games.

    Sounds good to me! :)

    As to what percentage that would be, I don’t know if it can be a static number. I think it depends a lot on the skill level A) of your other pitchers overall (theory), and B) of the pitchers you would use specifically (application).

    For instance, I think pulling Hamels in the fifth inning with a 75% chance to win is more justified if your bullpen lineup is Bastardo-Stutes-Contreras-Madson, as opposed to Herndon-Baez-Romero-Contreras.

    To put that in more concrete terms, think of the Hamels situation this way:

    The Phillies are up by eight runs with two innings of regulation left. Using Hamels in that spot infers that Manuel must believe his bullpen to be worse than a 36.00 ERA would indicate:

    (8 run lead * 9 innings) / 2 innings left

    By using Hamels in the eighth inning, Manuel must have one of two things:

    A) Had a complete lack of faith in his bullpen; or,

    B) Bad decision-making skills

    This may be article fodder… thank you for the inspiration and for the great comment, Pete.

  55. By David Gamel on Jun 16, 2011

    When your team isn’t hitting well and driving in runs, leave in the starting pitchers to keep the game close. When you’re up by 7 in the 8th inning, there’s no need to keep a starter in. A quality start in this day in age is considered 6 innings. Hamels had a QS. As for the bullpen use…it’s much easier to garner relievers than it is to get the quality starters the Phils have. Overall, I don’t think the bullpen has been overused much this years with most of the starters going 7-8 innings a night. Whenever you get the opportunity to get the starter out after 6-7 innings with more than a 4 run lead, it is good to do that. I’m a die hard Phillie Phan and i want these starters around in Sept. and Oct. to pitch us to a World Series win!!!

  56. By Bill on Jun 16, 2011

    99 pitches was the total after he walked helms and came out of game, I disagree with you in this situatiuon because a double header was looming with our shakiest starter going in one of them. Who know that KK would wind up being lights out for 7

  57. By Pete on Jun 16, 2011

    Bill,

    Welcome. You give us plenty of fodder. Happy to send some your way once in a while.

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