Roy Halladay Set to Earn Some Hardware

Originally written on November 8.

UPDATE: Halladay won the NL Cy Young award unanimously.

Major League Baseball will dole out awards starting on November 9. The NL Cy Young award will be issued on the 16th. The Phillies’ own Roy Halladay is the favorite but should receive competition from Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals and Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins.

Halladay trailed Johnson and Wainwright in ERA, but led in the all-important ERA retrodictor race.

ERA xFIP SIERA
Halladay 2.44 2.92 2.93
Johnson 2.30 3.15 3.07
Wainwright 2.42 3.14 3.13

While Halladay lagged behind in K/9, he set the pace in BB/9 and established a huge lead in K/BB ratio. He trailed only Cliff Lee (10.3) in all of Major League Baseball.

K/9 BB/9 K/BB
Halladay 7.9 1.1 7.3
Johnson 9.1 2.4 3.9
Wainwright 8.3 2.2 3.8

He also tossed the only perfect game among NL pitchers, coincidentally defeating Johnson in that game on May 29.

Halladay led in wins (21), innings pitched (250.2), complete games (9), and shut-outs (4) as well, all the while pitching on the only playoff team among the three competitors.

Whether traditional or Sabermetric, the numbers seem to overwhelmingly support Halladay in the NL Cy Young race. It would be surprising to see anyone else take home the hardware, but stranger things have happened.

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16 comments

  1. derekcarstairs

    November 08, 2010 10:38 AM

    Do any of the sabermetric stats incorporate IP or IP per start in a positive way to evaluate pitcher performance? If not, why not?

    All other things being equal, an eight-inning guy is doing better than a seven-inning guy who is doing better than a six-inning guy, etc.

    One of Doc’s strengths is that he led the majors in IP per start (7.6 IP per start), gave his team high quality innings deep into his starts and helped preserve the bullpen.

  2. Moose

    November 08, 2010 11:15 AM

    Is there anyway to give johan the cy for 2005? Thats bothered me ever since fatboy won it

  3. Bill Baer

    November 08, 2010 11:24 AM

    I wish there was some way to correct those past injustices, but at the very least we can use it as an example of what not to do in the future…

  4. derekcarstairs

    November 08, 2010 11:33 AM

    I looked at tangotiger’s calculations, but I must be missing something.

    Pitcher WAR is calculated by subtracting from the pitcher’s winning % the winning % for a NL replacement pitcher (.390); that difference is multiplied by IP/9 to arrive at WAR.

    It’s not totally clear, but winning % seems to be based on ERA. No explanation is given for how to convert ERA to winning %.

    While Halladay’s WAR is higher than Johnson’s (6.6 to 6.3), it seems that the difference should be greater since their ERAs are close and IP/9 is 36% higher for Doc than for Johnson.

    What am I missing?

  5. Dan P

    November 08, 2010 02:32 PM

    LOL at 2005 Cy Young voting. Johan Santana got hosed

  6. Shazbot

    November 09, 2010 12:36 AM

    Shoulda been Doc that year, but he broke his leg. Made the putout on the play, too.

  7. CH Phan

    November 09, 2010 12:52 PM

    Yeah, see Moose – if the Cy’s were the Oscars they’d give it to Johan in a later year when he likely did not deserve it – but they’d give it to him “for his body of work”. Heh.

  8. bill

    November 09, 2010 02:25 PM

    Innings pitched is the best counting stat – because all rate stats being equal, more is better, always.

  9. Joe Redden

    November 09, 2010 07:15 PM

    Bill,

    It won’t happen, but here’s what I think the Phils should do in the offseason. Let me know if I’m just crazy.

    (1) Trade Brad Lidge, re-sign Contreras as the setup man, make Madson the closer.

    (2) Let Werth go. Move Brown into right. If we can’t find a buyer for Ibanez, use him like a Pat Burrell and get Ben Francisco some serious time in left.

    (3) Keep the infield the way it is.

    (4) With the money saved on Lidge, Werth, and hopefully Ibanez, make a serious play for Cliff Lee. If Lidge, Werth, and Ibanez are gone, we can concievably offer Lee a 3-4 year deal @ $20M a year. If you can’t find a buyer for Ibanez or Lidge, we could offer him more money on the backend. Like first two years @ $15M per year followed by 2 more years @ $22M per.

    At the end, the pitching rotation looks like this:
    1. Halladay
    2. Lee
    3. Oswalt
    4. Hamels
    5. Blanton/Worley

    The lineup would look like this:
    1. Victorino (S)
    2. Utley (L)
    3. Polanco (R)
    4. Howard (L)
    5. Rollins (S)
    6. Francisco (R)
    7. Ruiz/Brown (R/L) (either)
    8. Brown/Ruiz (R/L) (either)
    9. Pitcher (Depends on the pitcher)

    That gives us enough right handed hitting to balance out and protects Howard with right handers on either side. Not to mention, we would be rolling with arguably the best starting rotation in the history of the major leagues. The funny thing is, it would only expand our payroll by maybe a little more than $30M. That’s a small price to pay for what could be the best team to ever step on the field, and without a doubt the best team in 2011.

    Let me know if I’m just crazy. By the way, amazing site your running here. I hope to see more of the new batting eval tool with the heat signatures.

  10. Bill Baer

    November 09, 2010 07:26 PM

    Joe,

    Re: 1 — The Phillies would have to eat a significant portion of Lidge’s $11.5 million salary (and $1.5 million buy-out for 2012) to get a taker. At that point, I think Lidge is more valuable on the Phillies than whatever scrub prospect they would get in return.

    Agreed on 2.

    I don’t think Lee would take a Halladay-esque 3-4/$20MM. I’m guessing he gets at least five guaranteed years. The Phillies, as a general principle, don’t give out long-term deals to starting pitchers. Even Halladay’s fourth year isn’t guaranteed.

    As for the heat maps, I’m not sure if/when my access to it will run out. It was essentially a beta test of the database that will be sold to Major League front offices, so my access could presumably be shut off at any time. I’m hoping I have it forever.

    Thanks for the kind words and thoughtful comment. Hope to see you around the comments in the future.

  11. Scott G

    November 09, 2010 10:40 PM

    rollins and francisco batting 5 and 6 sounds perfect to me. Werth has had higher WARs than Lee, and would be cheaper

  12. Joe Redden

    November 10, 2010 02:39 PM

    Scott,

    I understand that Werth would be cheaper, but I don’t think he is worth the money he would want. We have a strong batter against left-handed pitching in Francisco as long as he gets more AB’s. And if we were to get Werth, that would put Brown on the back-burner for another year. It’s not like we are going to platoon Werth or Victorino with Brown, and Francisco has the range to replace our ailing left fielder. I think our only faulty points next year will be in our number 4 and 5 pitchers. Blanton can’t go beyond 5 innings and Kendrick or Worley will pitch like, well, Kendrick or Worley.

  13. Scott G

    November 10, 2010 05:14 PM

    1. Francisco is a career .352 wOBA vs LHP. That’s pretty decent, but nowhere near the ability of Werth (.401 wOBA).

    2. Brown doesn’t need to replace Werth. He can replace Ibanez. Trade him, or sit him on the bench. Don’t reply about how much money he makes because that’s pretty irrelevant (if he’s going to be on the team, he’s making it one way or another, and if he’s worse than a replacement, Brown, then you’re team’s better off).

    3. I’m not sure platooning Victorino and Brown is a bad idea. Victorino is pretty sweet vs LHP, but pedestrian vs RHP. I don’t want to platoon Brown, but I wouldn’t mind if there had to be a platoon, if it were with Victorino. Werth could play CF those games.

    4. Blanton can go beyond 5.0 innings. He did so in 26 of his 28 starts this year. He avg’d nearly 7 IP/Start this year. Over his career, ranking his ERA by inning goes like this: 2,4,3,7,8,1,5,6. Blanton got a little unlucky this year with a BABIP of .324.

    5. Werth has been underpaid over the last few years. I might actually argue he’s be worth about 15-16 mil/year. Maybe that’s just me.

  14. dejesus54

    November 16, 2010 03:32 PM

    Circle me, John Denny…whoops, wrong blog.

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