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In nearly eight weeks, the Phillies have gone from as far back as seven games to ahead by three games in the NL East division race. As the Phillies have surged, going 38-15 (.717) since July 22, the Braves have faded, with a 28-25 record (.523) in the same span.
Tonight, the Phillies beat the Marlins 10-5 and the Braves lost to the Nationals this afternoon 4-2, inflating the Phillies’ cushion to three games in the division.
Here’s a look at what the NL East race has looked like since July 22, which appears to be the time the Phillies flipped the proverbial switch.
There are now 15 games left for both teams with the Phillies in a firm position of power. If the Phillies go 8-7 over the final five series, the Braves would have to go 11-4 just to create a tie in the NL East. Since the teams still play each other six more times, it is certainly possible. If the teams split the six head-to-head games and the Phillies go 5-4 over the other nine games, the Braves would have to win eight of their nine games.
CoolStandings.com gives the Phillies a 97 percent chance of making the post-season, which includes an 80 percent chance of winning the division. It was just a few days ago when the Phillies became favorites, so this has been quite the turnaround although nothing comparing to the last-minute victories of 2007 and ’08.