Lidge Tipping His Pitches?

by Bill Baer on August 1st, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 69 Comments »

Recap:

Moments before Ryan Zimmerman sent Brad Lidge‘s fastball over the centerfield fence in the ninth inning, the third baseman sent Adam Dunn a message.

Zimmerman fouled off a slider, looked at Dunn in the on-deck circle and laughed before hitting a three-run homer to give the Washington Nationals a 7-5 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday night.

“He let me know I’m not hitting again,” Dunn said. “It’s like, ‘You don’t get the win today.’”

Aside from simply not having the same velocity or control on either fastball or slider, this sounds to me like the Washington Nationals knew what was coming before it ever left Brad Lidge‘s hand. The pitch that Zimmerman hit to win the game was an absolute cookie but it sounds to me like there was some idiosyncrasy that the Nationals picked up to give them an edge.

“I guess you have to tip your hat every once in a while,” Lidge said. “I don’t want to do that tonight, but I have to. Hopefully, I’ll get another chance to do it because I feel pretty good.”

The average velocity on Lidge’s fastball is down to 92.5 MPH compared to 93.6 MPH last year and 94.3 MPH the year before. The average velocity on his slider is 0.7 MPH slower. While his strikeout rate is back to his plateau from 2008 and earlier, his walk rate is up to 5.7 per nine innings — easily the highest rate of his career. From 2005-08, Lidge’s ground ball rate fell around 42 and 46 percent; the past two seasons, it has fallen to 39 and 38.5 percent respectively.

Lidge’s failures are not a product of BABIP. Presently .324, his career average is .329. One can make a case that he’s been home run lucky, but given the small sample of innings, his HR/FB at 17 percent is not outrageously higher than his career average 11 percent.

Note: All stats used do not include his loss against the Nationals as this article was posted early Sunday morning before FanGraphs updates its statistics.

So we know that Zimmerman was clearly extremely confident that he would hit the game-winning home run off of Lidge. It could have been sheer coincidence that he said that and got a fresh-baked cookie from Lidge, but it is more likely representative of some quirk Lidge has that tips his pitches. And we know that the quality of Lidge’s pitches have dropped considerably from 2008. That, combined with his naturally high walk rate, makes for some anxious moments in the ninth inning.

Charlie Manuel has been in Lidge’s corner every step of the way  and it doesn’t appear like any changes are imminent, but Ryan Madson ought to get a shot at the ninth inning sooner rather than later. Unlike Lidge, Madson rarely walks hitters as he is averaging 1.5 walks per nine innings. Madson averages 9.8 strikeouts per nine and induces a lot of ground balls — 54 percent, to be exact. His 2.71 SIERA is right behind that of Heath Bell, the well-respected closer of the San Diego Padres, and slightly ahead of future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera.

If Manuel sticks with Lidge through August the way he did last year, he will likely end up costing the Phillies several games. Winning the World Series may have garnered Manuel more rope, so to speak, but he is quickly running out. Refusing to use a perfectly good relief pitcher in Madson in favor of a clearly ineffective reliever in Lidge should be punishable by termination of employment.

  1. 69 Responses to “Lidge Tipping His Pitches?”

  2. By FuquaManuel on Aug 1, 2010

    Good write up. Let us not forget that Manuel’s stubborn loyalty to Lidge in 2009 cost us game 4 of the WFS. This year it could quite possibly cost us a playoff birth.

  3. By Bill Baer on Aug 1, 2010

    Last year, the Phillies had the cushion of a division lead to soften the blow of the blown saves. Not nearly as much wiggle room this year.

  4. By richard kave on Aug 1, 2010

    send lidge to the minors to learn he can,t live on a fast ball in the middle of the plate,if he want,s to stay in the big leagues.you sent others down, why not him. he blew enough games…..

  5. By Rick on Aug 1, 2010

    The loyalty thing for a coach has limits and Lidge has outlived all of the limits. Charlie should let him sit and use Madson or someone else. I can’t believe that foolish loyalty wins you games…I has always felt Charlie was a great coach and smarter than to let a pitcher tell him when he’s playing and in what Innig (9) etc. That is really NOT SMART COACHING..:O(

  6. By Elmer on Aug 1, 2010

    I am not sure I agree with Madson as the new closer. He proved nearly as ineffective in the role. That being said, Lidge cannot remain the closer. The Phils have to make up 3.5 games and can’t afford to lose games like last night’s.

  7. By Bill Baer on Aug 1, 2010

    He proved nearly as ineffective in the role.

    That has already been disproven on this blog, actually.

  8. By Mratfink on Aug 1, 2010

    Remember when some people in the off-season said Danys Baez would provide cover at closer should Lidge suck again? oy.

  9. By Joe on Aug 1, 2010

    If Madson closes the 9th, who’s gonna pitch the 8th? I like Madson as a setup guy. And what are you going to do with Lidge? Can you take a guy who’s been a closer for his career and turn him into a regular reliever? At least Lidge is used to pitching the 9th. Plus, i seem to remember the Phillies trying to fill the closer position last year and nobody was quite up to the role then either. As much as i agree that Lidge didn’t do that great last year or this year, i approve Manuel’s decision to stick with him simply because i don’t see anybody else as a much better option. With that said, i’ll call my physician when the 9th inning comes around.

  10. By Brad on Aug 1, 2010

    I thought Contreras did a pretty good job closing earlier this year, though he’s been less good since Lidge came back from injury. I saw somewhere that the Phillies don’t want to use Matthieson (sp?) because they are concerned about him throwing a “flat” fastball to major league hitters, which is pretty funny when you watch Lidge go out there with his fastball. What is the organization’s prejudice against Scott?

  11. By Scott G on Aug 1, 2010

    Would anyone mind providing a link to the post disproving Madson’s “inability” to close? I’m a new reader, and I would love to check that out.

  12. By Bill Baer on Aug 1, 2010

    http://crashburnalley.com/2010/04/21/on-ryan-madson-relax/

  13. By Scott G on Aug 1, 2010

    Thanks.

    That post just shook me back to reality. I NEVER believe in pressure (lack of clutchness in good players) or the idea that “the last 3 outs of a game are the hardest to get”, but I somehow started to let myself fall into the mindset that maybe Madson doesn’t have the composure for the role. My college statistics teacher would be ashamed of me. *looks down in shame*

  14. By bacardipr05 on Aug 2, 2010

    A few things statistics is just that. First Madson has yet to get into a grove. Since last year I said Madson should be our closer. His kicking the chair should provide insight to this discussion. I just dont believe he has the mental make up to become a closer. This was proved last year. Maybe he should be given a few chances when we have at least a 2+ run. However i dont see many games that we can experiment here with. This was a failure of RAJ to sign a viable alternative Baez was not that alternative. RAJ and others felt that Mathieson needed a little more time to work on a few things. A 95MPH straight fast ball down the middle might get out most AAA but not at this league. Perhaps a late August call up now that he has a little time to work on this however dont know how much improvement he can do by then.

  15. By bacardipr05 on Aug 2, 2010

    Lets not forget Mathieson has not pitched much in last 3 years because of surgery. Missed most of 08 and I believe all of 09. A little more experience and some a little bit more he may be ready for next year. I believe the Phils would rather call up Bastardo once he gets a little more work after his recent injury in.

  16. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    I’m sorry, but I don’t remember Madson ever being consistenat when given the opportunity to close games. Last year he had 10 saves and 6 blown saves. This year he has 4 saves and 3 blown saves. Don’t know exactly how many of those blown saves were closing games in the 9th, but by my memory, he has not been consistent.

  17. By Scott G on Aug 2, 2010

    You should read the post that was linked above. You’re talking about 23 games. I’m pretty sure Chase Utley has had much worse 23 game stretches than that (see earlier this season). Small sample sizes people.

    A-Rod was considered not a clutch player before the ’09 Postseason. After the playoffs last year, he had eclipsed 200 PA in his playoff career, and his playoff numbers were almost identical to his career regular season numbers. Not a coincidence.

  18. By dejesus54 on Aug 2, 2010

    What has Jon Rauch done that Ryan Madson hasn’t? (Or for that matter, what has Matt Capps done that Jon Rauch hasn’t?) My vote all else being equal would be Madson. OTOH, Madson has been excellent as a setup man more often than not, and often ends up pitching more high-leverage innings than Lidge pitching the 9th. Lidge can only pitch the 9th or he can’t pitch at all (often, unfortunately, both). Maybe the best option would be to give Lidge save situations where he has extra room to work with (e.g. two- or three-run lead, towards the bottom of the order, low-OBP hitters, etc.), and start the 9th with other pitchers (Madson, Romero, Contreras) based on the situation/opposing batter in other games. If for example Romero gets the leadoff batter out and the matchups become more favorable, bring in Lidge for only two outs. It’s not quite closer-by-committee, but it’s also not “Lidge is our closer” = Lidge starts the 9th of every save situation either.

    Also wondering, is Escalona considered a future closer prospect? In 3 seasons at Reading, he has 23 saves with 104 K in 105.1 IP (vs. 45 BB and 97 hits allowed) and an ERA of 2.82 (although it’s 4.24 this year). Do the Phillies prefer him to Mathieson (who has a better K/9 at AAA and is only a few months older)? Will this all be a moot point when the Phils sign Dotel as next year’s Danys Baez?

  19. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    I read the article written by the same blogger that wrote this article. I hardly miss a game and know Ryan Madson isn’t consistent. I have seen plenty of other closers come and go who were a lot more consistent than Madson has been; Including Mitch Williams. 23 games is a good enough time to evaluate a closer. That can make or break a season. He had 14 saves and 9 blown saves in the 23 games. That’s not good. Comparing a 2nd baseman to a closer is like comparing apples to oranges.

  20. By Phylan on Aug 2, 2010

    What is this “consistency” people always talk about? Madson doesn’t have it, the Phillies don’t have it, Jayson Werth doesn’t have it, but when would we say any of them have consistency? None of them are going to go out and achieve the same result every night. Madson isn’t going to throw 70 straight scoreless innings, Werth isn’t going to hit a double in every plate appearance, or every other plate appearance, or exactly once every 4 plate appearances, or whatever. Clustering happens. That is inevitable, and there is not a whole lot a player can do about that. Why is it that we only complain about that clustering when it suits us?

  21. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    I’m starting to wonder about you people. Expecting a closer to be better than 60% in save opportunities isn’t the same as expecting a batter to hit a double every at bat or a pitcher to throw 70 straight scoreless innings. It’s not asking too much for a pitcher to be better than 60% in save opportunities. No closer is that bad; not even Lidge last year. 23 opportunities is plenty of time to evaluate a CLOSER. Stop comparing apples to orangles!

  22. By EK on Aug 2, 2010

    Maybe it’s just me, but I see Lidge’s struggles as primarily the fault of Dubee. Now that Lidge doesn’t have anything like an overpowering fastball–92 won’t blow by too many people–he needs to learn to be more of a control pitcher. And who on the team is responsible for teaching pitchers how to grow into their roles? Well, that’s Rich Dubee on the Phillies. So, yeah, Lidge’s fastball velocity is down. But he’s not going to–nor is he really supposed to–figure out on his own how to cope with this. Dubee, on the other hand, should be working with him to turn him into a paint-the-corners kind of guy with a hard-out slider. I know that he won’t transform overnight, but I’d say it’s perhaps his method to pitches–SLIDER SLIDER SLIDER fastball right down the middle SLIDER SLIDER–that’s really harming him.

  23. By Phylan on Aug 2, 2010

    Nick, the problem is you’re putting the “closer” title on a pedestal, and you’re using a statistic that is very poor at evaluation in the first place. 23 opportunities for a pitcher that is used as a closer usually means around 23 innings of work. I honestly hope you don’t judge pitchers on that.

  24. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    Closers are more important than you think. I’m not using a poor statistic. You’re wrong. 23 innings is plenty of time to evaluate a closer. Most closers don’t blow 60% of their opportunities. Not even in their first 23 appearances. Give me an example of a good closer that blew that many games in a short period of time.

  25. By EK on Aug 2, 2010

    It’s almost like Nick is a straw man…

    Nick, what exactly makes the “save” a good statistic? It’s all arbitrary drawn, isn’t it? Why couldn’t the save be, say, 4 runs in an inning?

  26. By Scott G on Aug 2, 2010

    A save is one of the most ridiculous stats in baseball. Why is it so difficult for a pitcher to not allow 3 runs in one inning. In “The Book”, written by Tom Tango et al., they have used statistics to prove that both closers and mop-up men alike have converted 3 run games around 97% (?) of the time.

    23 innings is a terrible barometer for a pitcher. Obviously, 23 innings is a large portion of a relievers sample for a season, but it’s still not a good sample.

    You have to remember that Madson wasn’t used in 23 stereotypical save situations (my browser won’t bring up baseball-reference.com to help me give examples, but a pitcher can blow a save in the 8th (as well as 7th I believe), so if you’re going to site these “blown saves”, then to be fair, you must take into account all of those successfully converted 8th innings (of which he’s had MANY).

  27. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    I don’t understand what you’re asking. The ninth inning is important. Brad Lidge was perfect in 2008. The Phillies only made the playoffs by three games. Can you imagine if Brad Lidge only blew only 3 saves that year?

  28. By Scott G on Aug 2, 2010

    Every inning counts the same. 2008 was a fluke and an aberration for Brad Lidge. I predicted his downfall on my site. He threw garbage pitches that people swung at, and it was only a matter of time before people took them for balls.

    Madson has had a wealth of success in high leverage situations, you’re looking at a sample that includes all of his closer-like appearances, some bad appearances that only give recognition if he messes up, but you’re ignoring the number of times he’s pitched in the 8th in a “save situation” and was successful. If you pick and choose what to look at, the conclusions you draw are meaningless

  29. By Jon M on Aug 2, 2010

    Watch his arm when he throws the slider. He has a stutter in his motion that he doesn’t have when he throws the fastball.

  30. By Richard on Aug 2, 2010

    If Madson gives up the tying run in the 8th inning, it’s a blown save. If he doesn’t, then Lidge comes in to be in position for a save. At best, Madson gets a hold. We don’t remember the successful setup. The point is Madson gets charged for a blown save whether or not he’s likely to be in position to get the actual save. No one pays any attention to holds, which are anyway calculated weirdly.

  31. By Phylan on Aug 2, 2010

    There are many games in which there are tremendously more important situations that occur in the 6th, 7th, or 8th. And a team’s “closer” never gets used for those, and the reliever that holds the fort then doesn’t get near as much credit (or as much money). Meanwhile, Lidge can come in with the bases empty, a 3 run lead to protect, and 3 outs to get; he can let up 2 runs, load the bases, and then get the last out. And he gets the save. Closers are paid millions and millions of dollars for saves, without any sort of analysis about what happened in the save, or how important it was, or if the ninth was anywhere near the most important inning in a given game.

    Now go back to 2008. Can you imagine if Chad Durbin or Joe Blanton or Brett Myers had blew 3 more leads in the sixth? It could have added an extremely insignificant fraction of a run to their ERA, and still could have cost the Phillies those games. And nobody would have said anything. Nobody would have noticed. But since saves — which, like wins, tell you nothing about the context of a pitchers performance — have become absurdly high profile and lifted the title “closer” to near-sainthood, it’s the ninth inning to which your retrospective eye is drawn, even if Brad Lidge had a 3 run lead at that point and the sixth or seventh was far more important.

  32. By Bill Baer on Aug 2, 2010

    If you can find a 8.45 RA pitcher somewhere, he can probably put up a 71% save conversion rate.

    Colin Wyers (Link)

  33. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    You all are respinding to me before I can reply to everyone.

    You people are saying closers aren’t important. “what if this starter did this or that” Well, it doesn’t matter. Good teams have good pitchers. Good pitchers give you innings. If a start goes 7 or 8 innings, it’s the setup man and closer’s job to shut the opposing team down. If you get a closer in there that blows 40 percent of the chances, then it makes it harder to get to the playoffs. THAT IS IMPORTANT. If the Phillies didn’t have a great closer in 2008, they may not of made the playoffs and won the World Series. THAT’S WHY IT’S IMPORTANT!

    I’ve watched Mitch Willams, Doug Jones, ricky bottalico, heathcliff slocumb, Jose Mesa and all the Phillies closers through the years. I don’t remember ever seeing any closer as bad as Lidge and Madson have been the past couple of years. It didn’t take me over 40 innings to get it either. 23 inning is a good amount of time.

    Like I said before, I didn’t know how many of Madson’s blown saves happened in the 9th. Look up and you will see. People were giving that as an example, so I went with it. 9 blown saves in 23 opportunities is bad. Especially when only one close had more than 8 all year….Brad Lidge,

  34. By Phylan on Aug 2, 2010

    I’m not sure how to respond to that since you very clearly ignored what I wrote. Also, in light of that, I kind of wonder if I should bother.

  35. By Bill Baer on Aug 2, 2010

    Nick,

    To quote Jim Mora, “You kiddin’ me?”

  36. By Scott G on Aug 2, 2010

    Yes. Closers are important in that they are a part of a major league baseball team. They usually pitch in the final three outs that a team is on the field. Thus, if they mess up your team has no chance, or only one chance to win/tie the game for the team.

    However, a closer who gets a save in a 3 run game, or a 2 run game, or a 1 run game against the 7,8,9 hitters, probably isn’t pitching in the most dangerous situation in that game. Any ML relief pitcher should be able to convert one inning when the team is up by 2 or 3 runs.

    Ryan Madson has pitched in more than 23 “dangerous” (high leverage) situations. Often times, he is facing the 3,4, and 5 hitters. When he converts the 8th against these guys (much more often than 60% of the time), Lidge is then responsible for facing the 6,7, and 8 hitters with the bases empty upon entering. Who pitched the more important inning? Clearly Madson.

    If you can’t understand that you need to look at Madson’s entire body of work to gauge who is more successful (Lidge or Madson), then there is no reason to have this discussion with you.

  37. By kmart on Aug 2, 2010

    Nick are you actually reading people’s arguments or are you just repeating the same argument over and over with the hopes that everyone else gets tired and shuts up so that you “win”?

  38. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    Why are you guys replying to me as if I’m saying closers are the most important player on the field. They are important though.

    Why are you comparing a setup man to a closer? I know Madson is a great setup man, but he doesn’t get it done in the 9th. They tried making him the closer already. Apparently you can’t just throw anyone in that spot. Most closers that go out to close a game get the job done. Not every other game.

  39. By bill on Aug 2, 2010

    Madson can’t close, Jayson Werth is a jerk, Hamels went Hollywood, Victorino is an idiot who makes mistakes all the time, and Ryan Howard is worth his contract because he hits dingers. It’s like I’m really on WIP!

    Anyway, Brad Lidge wasn’t actually “perfect” in 2008, he just converted every save opportunity. I distinctly recall some non-save opportunities in which he allowed quite a few runs.

  40. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    Alright, I was at work and multitasking, so give me a break. Ryan Madson comes in more “dangerous” situations and most of the time closers come in with nobody on base. If for some reason he is given the closer role and does worse than when he was a setup man, doesn’t that say something? Why can’t he do as well when he’s coming in closing games?

  41. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    That’s from me watching the games he closed, not looking at stats.

  42. By Bill Baer on Aug 2, 2010

    GIVE ME CANCER NOW GOD

  43. By SJHaack on Aug 2, 2010

    Nick,

    Your best relief pitchers should be pitching in the most important spot in the ballgame. The Phillies best relief pitcher is certainly not Brad Lidge, and the best relief pitcher on most teams is not the closer. The most important spot is not always the 9th inning.

    That is why Saves are bad and closers are horribly overvalued. If you put David Herndon in as the closer, I’m willing to bet he’d have a better Save stat line than Brad Lidge this year. Not because he has a Closer Mentality, but because if you throw any decent pitcher in only when you’re protecting a lead they can protect it.

  44. By Scott G on Aug 2, 2010

    Nick, why if you flip a coin 5 times can you get 5 heads or 5 tails?

  45. By Bill Baer on Aug 2, 2010

    It depends on whether or not you watch all the coin flips. If you watch the coin flips, you can intuit whatever you want.

  46. By Phylan on Aug 2, 2010

    Hey Nick I know you’ve seen it before because I just accidentally commented on another article that you were mucking up from April wherein Bill posted this, but here goes:

    Madson in 9th inning save opps:

    2003: 1 appearance, not a save situation

    2004: Pitch in a save situation in the 9th 1 time, converted. Blew 1 save while pitching in the 8th inning

    2005: Blew 7 saves. By inning of appearance: 7th, 8th, 7th, 7th, 7th, 7th, 6th. 0 save opportunities in the 9th inning

    2006: Pitched mostly as a starter. 2 saves, 2 blown, 2 save opportunities in the 9th inning, recored both saves. Two blown saves by inning: 6th, 7th

    2007: Recorded 1 save by pitching the final 3 innings in an 8-4 victory. 1 blown save came, in the 8th inning

    2008: 1 save opportunity converted in the 9th. Two blown saves by inning: 7th, 8th

    2009: 14 save ops in 9th inning, 10 converted, 4 blown. Two blown saves in 8th inning

    2010: 3 saves in 4 9th inning save ops, 1 blown

    Total saves/opportunitiess as closer in 9th: 17/22
    Mop-up saves (3+ IP in blowout): 1

    Total blown saves as non-closer: 15

    I do not care at all about saves. But you do. What about Madson and the ninth now?

  47. By Pat on Aug 2, 2010

    Genuine question:
    Which situations can happen in the 6,7,8 innings to create a higher significance/leverage than in the 9th?

    And how would a manager know at the time that the early inning would be more significant than the 9th?

  48. By zfg on Aug 2, 2010

    Pat:

    Take yesterday’s game, for example. It wasn’t in the 9th, but Lidge gets the save. Meanwhile, Madson pitches in the 9th with the game tied. He gives up a run, the Phils lose. Lidge could give up 1 run, and still get the save.

  49. By Nick on Aug 2, 2010

    No, Bill. There is more than just looking at stats. Stats don’t show everything. You can look at a box score and see a batter go 0 for 4 and say he had a bad game. Or you can watch the game and see he was robbed by 4 great defensive plays. The opposing pitcher certainly looks better in the box score when you have great defense behind you than if he didn’t. That’s was my point of watching rather than reading about it in the paper.

    I would rather see Madson than Lidge in the 9th. Since they didn’t get anyone in a trade, that’s probably their best option. Maybe they can use Baez or Contreras for those more “dangerous” innings. Hopefully they don’t blow any saves before Madson gets the ball in the 9th.

  50. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    Box Scores are bad stats, yes. Thank you for pointing out what Bill James realized 40 years ago.

  51. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    There are stats which capture all that info you claim the box score misses.

  52. By Pat on Aug 2, 2010

    are you trying to tell me that RBI’s wins and saved arent important!?!?!?!?!?!?!? My childhood!

  53. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    I also get caught up in the narrative “We need a closer!!!” but I keep reminding myself they are not that important in the big picture of winning games and as bad as Lidge has been over the past 10 months of baseball he has cost the Phillies around 1 game over a replacement player.

    Strangely it might be BETTER to have Lidge in Charlie’s “closer” role to guarantee that Madson is used most often in the highest leverage situation which could be in the 6th, 7th, or 8th. As soon as Madson becomes “the closer” then he is stuck in the 9th.

  54. By Scott G on Aug 2, 2010

    Pat-

    If the Phillies are up by 2 runs in the 8th inning, and J.C. Romero just walked the first two batters (naturally, this would happen), the opposing team now has men on first and second with no one out. Clearly, at this point in the game, you know that you cannot save your best pitcher for the save situation in the 9th because if you continue to use J.C. Romero or someone worse, there will be no lead to protect. In this instance, the imminent threat of having 2 men on base when up by two runs is clearly more high-leverage than a pitcher coming into the 9th up two runs with the bases empty.

    Most managers will not use their best reliever in this instance because he probably won’t go 2 innings and get credit for a save. However, at the point in the game described above, the lead could be lost without “the Phillies” ever using their best reliever (not to be confused with Lidge, the closer).

    I do not have nearly the statistical background as Bill Baer, but this is precisely the topic that has been covered on my blog numerous times since halfway through the 2008 season. It usually involves mismanaging the bullpen when Manuel or an opposing managers saves the best relievers for saves (especially in extra inning games). Another FREQUENT topic of discussion is the use of J.C. Romero vs. RHBs, which should be avoided at all costs.

  55. By Richard on Aug 2, 2010

    I can’t believe no one has zeroed in on the most important implication of the story Bill quoted at the opening of this post. That is, clearly the Nationals were stealing signs.

  56. By Elmer on Aug 2, 2010

    Bill, fair enough on Madson. I guess I fall into the category of the fans that remember his struggles in prominent spots. Though he did blow 6 saves last year and has blown 3 this year, I concede that he may not be as ineffective as I thought.

  57. By Pat on Aug 2, 2010

    Thanks Scott G.

    And yea, I think the use of J.C. Romero vs. strike zones should be avoided at all costs. JC usually loses.

  58. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    Madson is far and away the best pitcher in the pen.

    Look at these numbers:

    The good:
    10.02k/9 1.31bb/9 54.1 %hr/fb xFIP 2.66!!!!!!

  59. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    Err the 54.1 is GB%

  60. By Elmer on Aug 2, 2010

    Oh, and Madson can’t really be much worse than Lidge has been, so why not give it a go.

  61. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    If I ran the club I would use Contreras against tough righties, JC against tough lefties and Madson in the highest leverage spots or when there is bunch of LRLR in the lineup. I would be more willing to let Contreras pitch against lefties than JC against righties.

    I would DFA Lidge. A guy from AAA would be better than him.

  62. By SJHaack on Aug 2, 2010

    I would use Herndon more in 6th/7th inning situations where there are 1-2 run differences, call up mathieson, and never use Baez or Lidge unless there were 3+ run differences in addition to what euphronius said.

    Interestingly enough, they are actually using Baez in the best possible way without actually releasing him – the 3+ differential games (I’d say 4 but then he’d never be used, and frankly just having a fresh arm is all you need).

    I also would like a pony. :)

  63. By euphronius on Aug 2, 2010

    Hahaha I totally forgot Baez was on the team.

  64. By B on Aug 2, 2010

    The thing that kills me is that they refuse to get rid of Baez, he’s proven he sucks over the past 2+ years. I didn’t care that they took a chance on him, but he’s proven he’s terrible. Especially when we have legit upgrades sitting in AA/AAA

    Bastardo has a 1.05 FIP, a 0.00 ERA, a whip under 1.
    Mathieson has a 3.82 FIP, a 2.79 ERA, a 1.06 whip
    Schwimer has a 2.96 FIP, a 1.46 ERA, 1.08 whip

    Throw in guys like Stutes, Escalona, & DeFratus in AAA/AA who could all do better than Baez.

    Honestly we have some great bullpen options in the minors right now. It’s hard to understand why we’re wasting innings on Baez. I don’t mind Herndon as the long man as I think actually has some potential. But the two of them limit the pen as Charlie doesn’t feel comfortable using either of them.

  65. By Rob on Aug 2, 2010

    So we know that Zimmerman was clearly extremely confident that he would hit the game-winning home run off of Lidge. It could have been sheer coincidence that he said that and got a fresh-baked cookie from Lidge, but it is more likely representative of some quirk Lidge has that tips his pitches.

    Of course he was extremely confident — he was facing Brad Lidge..

  66. By hk on Aug 2, 2010

    Sometimes, like yesterday, having Lidge as the “closer” works to the Phils’ advantage (albeit unbeknownst to Charlie) because he uses his better relievers in higher leverage situations. Getting 7 outs from Contreras and Madson to keep the game tied in the 8th through 10th innings had a lot more to do with the outcome than Lidge holding a 2 run lead in the 11th.

  67. By David on Aug 3, 2010

    Validity of saves/closers aside, there is some use to consistency: a pitcher’s ERA represents average runs, but not the distribution. If it’s a save situation at the top of the ninth and thus a 1 to 3 run lead, then we want the pitcher that gives up less than that number of runs over the course of an inning the least often. If it’s just a 1 run lead, we want the pitcher most likely to produce a “shutdown” even if he’s got a higher ERA than another pitcher. If one pitcher with a 3.00 ERA typically gives up one run at a time, then a third of the innings pitched give up a run. If another with a 4.50 ERA typically gives them up in bunches of 3+, then something around a sixth of innings pitched give up a run.

    Now, I doubt that Manuel is going to do statistical analysis to that depth (and I also doubt that there are going to be differences in ERA and save percentages to the degree I gave as an example), but I’m curious to see – which Phillies relief pitcher actually throws shutdowns and/or scoreless innings most often? (I think we all know it’s not Lidge.)

  68. By David on Aug 3, 2010

    Er, make that “most often”. And yeah, I realize the irony that a pitcher who throws scoreless innings more consistently than another with the same ERA actually has greater variation in the other direction…

  69. By Western Dave on Aug 4, 2010

    I have a question about the difference in MPH over the distance from release point to plate. Is there really a measurable distance betweeen a 95 MPH fastball and a 90 MPH over the 60+ feet? TMQ has done a lot on bogus numbers in football (for example 40 speed turning into sacks). Is a similar debunking merited for baseball? At one point does a fastball hit it’s top speed? In other words, is his velocity being down by a mile or two an hour something that hitters could physically notice? Or is the real problem here the lack of command or tipping pitches? Is too much made of fastball speed compared to say movement, deceptiveness (how different do other pitches look from the fastball?), and difference in speeds from other pitches. These are honest questions. Has there been any research done on this? Can you do back of the envelope calculations?

  70. By Bill Baer on Aug 4, 2010

    Dave, it sounds like a lot of your questions are physics-related. Unfortunately, I’m not a physics major so I can’t really help you out here. If I try and recall what little I learned in high school, I’d probably just lead you further astray. =/

    Any physics people here are welcome to try and tackle some of those questions.

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