Comments on: Domonic Brown: Curb Your Enthusiasm?

By: Bill Baer

Bill Baer — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 21:52:01 +0000

New post up that includes Lilly analysis. Don’t think the Phillies would offer him arbitration.

By: Sophist

Sophist — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 21:24:08 +0000

Lilly’s last 14 starts:

93 IP, 7.4 K9, 2.4 BB9, 3.39 ERA // .231/.285/.389 against

Think his BAbip is related to his FB/PU tendencies. Looks like SIERA has been pretty high on the guy in recent years.

Could take the Happ loss, maybe, if they remember to offer the guy arbitration.

By: e

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 21:15:36 +0000

Bill, saw on your twitter.

Lilly= Blanton is quite harsh.

Lilly is a type A. Happ isn’t. Cost controlled, but not good.

Phillies have a good D, neutralize the BABIP.

a bit risky, but its a great draft next year, and Lilly fits into the — go for it– mode.

I’d do it.

By: KH

KH — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 20:39:12 +0000

Its not about coming out even or ahead either for this season. I personally believe the Phillies can afford for Brown to be significantly worse then Werth, in the near term, and if other players play like they can and the Phillies bring in some pitching help at the deadline. It would all depend on what came back for Werth. How the heck can you say it would be bad or good without knowing what is coming back for Werth.

By: Bill Baer

Bill Baer — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 20:37:54 +0000

Nobody hates Jayson Werth thats ridiculous.

KH, meet Mandy Housenick. Mandy, meet KH.

By: KH

KH — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 20:35:35 +0000

Nobody hates Jayson Werth thats ridiculous. The Phillies are not going to pay him the 75-90 million over five years he is going to get on the open market. Thats why people want to trade him and I agree with that line of thinking as long as Brown is ready and the return on Werth is better then a first round draft pick

By: corey katz

corey katz — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 19:36:05 +0000

I feel like Brown has too much to overcome to receive the starting role at this point in this year. Calling up a guy like Mayberry would have made more sense here to me. Why would they bring up Brown knowing he may be back in the minors in a week?

By: Bill Baer

Bill Baer — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 18:37:31 +0000

I think he should catch! (jk)

NL average OPS by outfield spot…

LF: .781
CF: .762
RF: .781

The Phillies have traditionally been averse to making waves in the ocean, so I don’t think they’d make a move so controversial as to kick Victorino out of center field.

By: E

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 18:33:51 +0000

I think once brown goes back down when Vic comes off the DL.. they should move him to CF.

If he is passable, imagine what his bat could be like at Cf.

By: Bill Baer

Bill Baer — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 17:46:30 +0000

Scribbs, the bigger concern earlier in the year was ensuring that he didn’t qualify for Super Two status, as that would get him to free agency quicker.

See: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/info/faq.jsp#arbitration

Beyond that, I don’t think the Phillies were too concerned because he has to hit that sixth year before he can hit free agency. If my analysis is correct, the Phillies’ thoughts were, “Avoid Super Two” and then “Try not to call him up at all until September” (September call-ups don’t accrue MLB service time).

Red, I think there are way too many variables involved to give you a black-and-white answer to that. Werth is at least a four-win player (worth about $25 million if Matt Swartz’s estimate of $6 million per FanGraphs WAR is correct) and his comp picks are worth about $5 million. So the Phillies would have to get about $30 million in production from Brown and whatever they get for Werth in a trade. That’s looking strictly at this season. Since you said the starter would be cost-controlled, that would have a lot more value than a late first-round and a sandwich comp pick.