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Graph of the Intermittent Time Period

Posted By Bill Baer On May 11, 2010 @ 4:19 pm In Graphs,MLB,Philadelphia Phillies,Sabermetrics | 4 Comments

Happy Halladay, everyone!

Here’s something to get you through the next few hours until Roy takes the mound in Colorado tonight.

J.C. Romero had another shaky outing last night, the second out of five appearances in which he has allowed a run. Overall, he has walked four batters in two and two-thirds innings. His fastball thus far is, on average, three MPH slower than his career average of 91.5 MPH. His slider has accounted for one out of every four pitches he has thrown in 2010 compared to about one out of every six over his career.

You may recall at the end of March, I recommended that Romero be used strictly as a LOOGY in lower-leverage innings because he is not nearly as good as his ERA has indicated in his time with the Phillies. Behold:

Romero has severely out-performed his ERA estimators in his two and a half seasons with the Phillies going into 2010. He has been extremely fortunate, stranding 86 to 90 percent of base runners with a BABIP between .236 and .239 since 2007. As great as Romero has looked, those are simply unsustainable numbers, especially when coupled with his unacceptable walk rate that has been between 5.8 and 7.0 since ’07.

Simply put, Romero is a poor man’s Oliver Perez. Would you trust Ollie in high-leverage situations? Neither would I.

On the topic of relievers, check out my explanation of the new shutdown/meltdown statistics at Baseball Daily Digest.


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