Cole Survives, Phillies Start 2-0

For the first time since 2003, the Philadelphia Phillies have started the season with two wins. The team has become notorious for its slow starts, but has come out of the gates guns ablaze in 2010. The team scored 11 runs on Opening Day and tacked on another eight against the Nationals tonight. Ryan Howard hit another home run — a tape-measure shot to right-center that landed in the second deck — and Jimmy Rollins continued his great approach at the plate. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels survived through five innings without his curve and dealing with a postage stamp strike zone. Ryan Madson successfully converted a four-out save and gave the Phillies their first series win of 2010.

Rollins drew two walks in both games, only the third time he has accomplished that feat in his career. Last year, it took him until June 19 to walk twice in just one game. Clearly, Rollins is having a much easier time at the plate, which may yet prove that his 3.2% decline in walk rate from 2008 to ’09 may have been aberrant.

On the other side, Cole Hamels had a rough outing but was savvy enough to survive. Home plate umpire Mike Winters wasn’t giving him anything on the corners as you can see in this chart:

Any of the green boxes you see in or near the black box were strikes (or borderline pitches) that were called balls.

Hamels struggled with his curve. Five of his 103 pitches were curves, but none of the five were effective pitches. He appeared to be throwing them from a higher arm angle, which may explain the lack of control.

The pink boxes are Cole’s curves. Additionally, early on, it appeared to me that Cole was having problems finishing his pitches out of the wind-up. I don’t have video-capturing nor video-editing capabilities, so I can’t verify this, but that was my impression early in his start. It could be nothing — just a lack of comfort with the pitcher’s mound on the road — but it may be something to keep an eye on.

Danys Baez did not inspire confidence in his one-third of an inning tonight. While he threw hard, as his 95 MPH fastball will attest, he threw straight. Cristian Guzman led off the eighth inning by swinging at a first-pitch fastball from Baez and smoking it to left-center where it caromed off the wall. Shane Victorino judged it poorly and the ball skipped away, allowing Guzman to reach third base for a triple. Adam Kennedy then scorched a curve over the middle of the plate, a line drive to right fielder Jayson Werth, who nearly threw Guzman out of the plate. Pinch-hitter Willie Harris hit another straight Baez fastball hard, a double to right field. Baez was lucky the damage wasn’t greater.

Ryan Madson came on to finish out the eighth, striking out Ian Desmond effortlessly. Charlie Manuel allowed Madson to bat when the Phillies loaded the bases with two outs in the ninth inning against Nationals reliever Matt Capps. That decision in and of itself is not controversial, but Madson swung the bat twice. With the Phillies’ bullpen as barren as it is, it is very risky to allow Madson to take any cuts there. However, Mad Dog survived and was able to nail down the four-out save in the bottom half of the inning, a good sign of things to come.

Kyle Kendrick will oppose Craig Stammen in the series finale tomorrow at 4:35 ET. The Phillies haven’t opened up a season with three straight wins since 2001.

Game graph via FanGraphs.

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6 comments

  1. Max

    April 08, 2010 12:17 AM

    “The team has become notorious for its slow starts, but has come out of the gates guns ablaze in 2010.”

    “Guns ablaze” = “playing the Nationals”

  2. doubleh

    April 08, 2010 08:43 AM

    Max: They played the Nats to start the season in 2008 and went 1-2 against them. They were an even worse team then.

  3. Bill

    April 08, 2010 09:41 AM

    My favorite part of those ball-strike graphs is seeing some of the truly strange calls umps make. One of those “balls” is practically right down the middle.

  4. Mediocre Hamels

    April 08, 2010 11:46 AM

    So being average = savvy now?

  5. Richard

    April 08, 2010 11:58 AM

    “So being average = savvy now?”

    You’ve just now begun reading this blog, is that a safe assumption?

  6. Dan

    April 08, 2010 01:48 PM

    Warning against reading too much into Cole’s start: baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10498

    “But what if we already have a theory about how good (or bad) a player is? And his stats in April confirm what we already suspected—that he’s on the decline, or that he’s ready to have resurgence? Surely, in those cases, a small sample can tell us something, can’t it?

    That’s really the most dangerous case of all. It’s the logical fallacy known as “confirmation bias”—viewing the data in a way that confirms what we think.

    We already know that one month of stats is less predictive than a whole season’s (and both are less predictive still than a good projection system, such as PECOTA). It’s dangerous to ignore that in the face of data that supports our point of view. It leads to us dismissing most findings (rightly) due to low predictive value, but cherry-picking the ones that support our predetermined conclusions.”

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