http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OF#value

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B#value

And while there probably is some value to that table…examine it again. Its populated by the best hitters in baseball (although, where’s Pujols?). I’m not saying Ryan Howard is a bad hitter. But wouldn’t you expect any good hitter to have a high %of runners on base driven in? Especially a guy like Howard. Because he’s got a lot of power.

I’m not discounting Howard’s value as a player. I’m saying that production is being matched by what he is being paid and very likely will be exceeded by his pay. I’m also saying it will be much easier for the Phillies to acquire a decent first baseman than a decent right fielder. And I’m saying Jayson Werth has had what looks to me like an underrated, underappreciated career.

Don’t get me wrong, Howard is an MVP candidate every year. You also have to consider his aging. And, as I said before, I’m a Padres fan so I always have one eye towards losing the player in free agency. And, no, I don’t think the park has inflated his value. Obviously, its not that different from average, as you pointed out.

And one other thing–I don’t see the fascination with the draft picks the teams pick up after a free agent leaves. How many of those supplemental picks turn into future stars? Really, I think its a whole lot better for the franchise to get one or two players with a minor league track record. At least they know what they’re getting then. So, yeah, it makes more sense for the Phillies to move Howard and get prospects instead of letting him walk and getting draft picks. I think.

% of runners on base driven in, 2007-2009 (out of 188 with 750+ PAs):
1. Ryan Howard 19.1%
2. Victor Martinez 19.0%
3. Aramis Ramirez 18.9%
4. Matt Holliday 18.8%
5. Joe Mauer 18.4%

And as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, Howard has not been helped by CBP. CBP is one of the more fair parks in MLB, consistently boosting scoring by only 3% for the past 3 years (ranking 14th, 15th, and 13th), and while Howard has a slightly higher OPS at home, he has more HRs and RBIs on the road.

Doesn’t that make Ryan Howard very likely to be overpaid within the next few years? Since he’s pretty much getting paid what he’s worth now and he’ll either get a raise or decline? Lets be honest here, Phillies fans…you can’t expect Howard to get much better.

Just curious, people. I’m a Padres fan living in Philly. Just for the record. But as the Phillies are rapidly becoming my second team…don’t you want to build for future success? Nobody liked the Cliff Lee trade, huh. I think it makes sense for the Phillies to let some other team take the enormous risk of Ryan Howard aging badly. And the risk of the $20+ mm its going to cost. And the risk of the prospects blossoming for the Phillies.

Doesn’t that make sense? Howards value will likely NEVER be higher than it is now and if you’re Ruben Amaro…who the hell wants to be the guy releasing Ryan Howard five years into a 7 year contract? Or explaining in your next interview how “Howard had intangibles” and that’s why you signed him to an albatross contract that screwed your organization? And that’s why your doing an interview because the Phillies fired you for allowing this collection of all-stars to turn into a terrible, last place team because they all got old and injured and looked like the 2009 Mets.

And Domonic Brown is a prospect. Jayson Werth had an amazing season last year and will most likely be harder to replace than a power-hitting first baseman. Really, though, you cannot, simply cannot, expect a guy with a career .430 slugging in the minors to produce on the same level as a 36 home run stud. Not saying you should expect 36 homers from Werth himself ever again. But you get the point–Domonic Brown “replacing” Jayson Werth is far from a sure thing. Domonic Brown becoming an every day major league hitter is far from a sure thing–ignoring Werth’s 128 OPS+ last season ignoring defense. See?

No, yelling guy, Jayson Werth is not as good as RyHo (what a clever nickname! it took me a second but I just figured out that its the first two letters of his first and last name). Jayson Werth was a top five outfielder last year, though, and has some track record to back it up. Ryan Howard is a top five first baseman–but he’s getting paid a lot of money, is due for another raise and if you’re looking for a slugging first baseman type…well, Jermaine Dye’s out of a job. Carlos Delgado (yes, he’s hurt, I know) was pretty solid for the past few years. Frank Thomas had to retire despite averaging 32 homers for the previous two seasons. You can find power at first base and it certainly doesn’t have to cost $20 mm.

That’s not so hard, right? Why is this even an angry discussion? The first handful of comments were right in line–yeah, trading Howard kind of makes sense but moving Utley really doesn’t. Then what? He’s clutch? You want him up in the bottom of the ninth? I thought we were done with all that…does that even make sense? If a guy really behaved differently in different game situations, would he be a good enough hitter to make it in the majors? If a guy was really clutch, like he could get a game winning hit more often than just a regular hit, wouldn’t he do that every time? I mean, that’s not even the mathematical point that has been proven over and over and over again. Clutch hitting doesn’t exist or else its so minuscule that hitters can’t demonstrate the ability to repeat clutch hitting year to year.

But you know what? I’m still a Padres fan. So by all means, scream at Ruben Amaro to keep Ryan Howard for the next ten years. That means the market for AdGo has one less supplier in it…(get it? AdGo? Adrian Gonzalez? No? Meh, eff it.)

I think it’s likely these personnel decisions will be made by the market for Ryan Howard and his demands, who remains productive and wants to stay in Philadelphia, what players the Phillies developed, etc. If there’s one thing that’s made clear by this article and the comments, it’s that the benefits to the Phillies are not clear-cut either way, so their decision point should remain sensitive to contingencies as they arise.